* My column in BusinessWorld last Tuesday, July 02, 2019.
There is understandable concern about the resilience of
our structures, public and private, in withstanding earthquakes. But there is
also alarmism being spread about the “Big One” happening soon in the
Philippines.
In late June, we experienced about 22 earthquakes a day
on average and historically, we have experienced seven strong earthquakes with
a magnitude of 7 to 7.9 since the 1960s (see Table 1).
In my opinion the earthquake referred to as the “Big One”
(8.0 +) happening in the Philippines is a long ways from happening and
seemingly impossible in the short run. Since we have frequent earthquakes, then
the stress between and among plates underground is reduced. Worldwide, strong
earthquakes (magnitudes of 5 and above) occur at an average of 1,700+ a year or
about five a day (see Table 2).
One concern on how our structures, public and private,
will react in an earthquake is over the quality of steel being manufactured or
imported and sold on the domestic market — in particular, the use of quenched
tempered (QT) or thermo-mechanically treated (TMT) steel bars. Major steel
manufacturers here are replacing micro-alloyed (MA) steel bars with QT rebars
because of the lower cost of the latter.
As I am neither an engineer nor architect, I could not
comment on the various advantages and disadvantages of using QT over MA steel
bars in terms of quality relative to price. Then I saw a documentary, Veronica
Files, Episode 1: Lindol vs Bakal in which Veronica Baluyut interviewed
engineer Emilio Morales, former chairman of the committee to update the
National Structural Code of the Philippines (NSCP) 2015, also the former
chairman of the Association of Structural Engineers of the Philippines (ASEP).
Mr. Morales argued that it is not advisable to use QT
bars in buildings because bending, threading, or welding will damage the
stonger outer layer and expose the lower-grade steel inside the bar, which
reduces the structure’s strength and resilience.
Again, this is engineering stuff and outside my field so
I will not comment on proposals to restrict or ban the sale of QT bars. I
believe that nothing should be banned except those few expressly harmful acts
like murder, stealing, destruction of private property, abduction, rape, etc.
But I do support proposals for the public dissemination
of information about the types and quality of steel bars being sold
domestically. Contractors, developers, and end-users should be made aware of
the differences in quality between QT and MA steel bars.
Government, through the Department of Trade and Industry
or Department of Science and Technology, can lead this public information
drive. Government through the Department of Finance should also reduce taxes on
construction materials like steel and cement, or at least should not hike
existing taxes and tariff for these products.
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See also:
BWorld 341, MORE investment liberalization needed, June 21, 2019
BWorld 342, Rising welfarism, rising taxes, June 25, 2019
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