BWorld 850, LGU consolidation and declining unemployment

LGU consolidation and declining unemployment

February 10, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/02/10/729366/lgu-consolidation-and-declining-unemployment/

 

Last Friday, Feb. 6, the 4th Ruperto P. Alonzo UP School of Economics – Program in Development Economics annual memorial lecture was held at the UP School of Economics (UPSE) in Diliman, Quezon City. The main speaker was Department of Budget and Management (DBM) Acting Secretary Rolando Toledo and the two discussants were UPSE Prof. Cielo Magno and Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department (CPRBD) head Romulo Emmanuel “Jun” Miral, Jr.

 

Mr. Toledo discussed the various reforms that the DBM has started and is continuing so that there will be more transparency and accountability in budget planning to disbursement, including the use of blockchain to control corruption and help achieve fiscal consolidation.

 

Ms. Magno mentioned the big increase in unprogrammed appropriations under the current administration that even bumped off counterpart funding for foreign assisted projects.

 

Mr. Miral discussed the Philippines’ high number of local government units (LGUs) and their overlapping functions with National Government agencies, leading to legislators raiding national revenues for local projects that contributed to the flood control corruption and related scandals.

 

I particularly like the two slides he showed, which I integrated into one of the tables accompanying this piece. The Philippines has the greatest number of first-tier LGUs, meaning there are many local politicians (governors, city mayors, vice-governors, vice-mayors, and provincial and city councilors).

 

Consider the scope of the land they control. Indonesia has 47,700 sq.km. of land per province or independent city, Malaysia has 20,300 sq.km., Vietnam has 9,200 sq.km., Thailand has 6,600 sq.km., meanwhile the Philippines has only 2,500 sq.km. per province or independent city.

 

Our three industrialized neighbors have reduced and consolidated their LGUs. Japan cut their municipalities from 15,900 to only 1,700. China cut their counties from 2,000 to 1,300 (see Table 1).

 

Retired faculty member Winnie Monsod spoke during the open forum and castigated UPSE alumni who were in high government positions when the infrastructure corruption was building and blew up. Retired faculty and former Finance Secretary Ben Diokno also spoke, and he explained the budget-bloating role of legislators which is outside the control of the Executive. Both Monsod and Diokno were my teachers at UPSE, as was Ruping Alonzo.

 

The closing remarks were made by Mel Alonzo, Ruping’s widow (the couple were my wedding godparents). Ninang Mel thanked the UPSE and the Program in Development Economics Alumni Association for continuing the memorial lectures in honor of Ruping, now the fourth year in a row.

 

A yummy reception was prepared by the Philippine Center for Economic Development for the speakers, UPSE officials and faculty, PDE alumni, and friends. San Miguel Corp. donated a few cases of canned beer. My special thanks to Ferdie Constantino, the former CFO of San Miguel, for endorsing my request for a quick donation as I wrote to him only three days before the lecture.

 

LABOR DATA

This week the Philippine Statistics Authority released the country’s labor data for December 2025, and we see that unemployment was at 4.4% and the full year unemployment was 4.2%. This is higher than in 2024 but lower than the levels in 2022-2023.

 

I checked the unemployment numbers of other countries in 2025, and ours was the second highest in the ASEAN-6 but lower than India and China, and lower than many North American and European countries.

 

While most Asian nations have seen declining or flat unemployment rates from 2022 to 2025, the US and many European countries have had high or rising unemployment over the same period, especially Austria, Poland, Germany, and the UK (see Table 2).

 

Consistent with the decline in Philippines unemployment, the Philippines Stock Market recently rebounded from a low of 5,600 last November, to 6,400 recently. Some things were put in good order by the administration led by the Executive Secretary, Ralph Recto.

 

A good observation was also made by Jesus L. Arranza, Chairman Emeritus of the Federation of Philippine Industries (FPI). He said, “President Marcos is doing the right thing by staying focused on the work. His calm, steady demeanor signals that he’s in control and well on top of the situation, and markets respond to that kind of leadership. Calmness begets calmness.

 

“For the business community, the message is simple: keep building, keep investing, keep doing our part in growing the economy. We condemn those behind the flood control anomalies and want swift accountability. But we also have to stay anchored on the country’s economic goals. You rarely go wrong when you respect duly constituted authority and keep the focus where it belongs — on progress.”

PhilStar 80, Energy security via more hydro storage and RES

Energy security via more hydro storage and RES

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

February 12, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/02/12/2507363/energy-security-more-hydro-storage-and-res

 

We can attain higher energy security via four mechanisms: more baseload or 24/7 power generation, more mid-merit and peak-load plants for high demand hours and days, a resilient transmission system and efficient distribution utilities (DUs) and retail electricity suppliers (RES).

 

Hydro pumped storage

 

Last Monday, Feb. 9, the Thunder Consortium officially acquired the 797-MW Caliraya-Botocan-Kalayaan Hydroelectric Power Plant (CBK HEPP), a hydro pumped storage (HPS) facility in Laguna.

 

The Thunder Consortium is led by Aboitiz Power (AP) and partners Sumitomo Corp. and Electric Power Development Co. Ltd. (J-Power). They won the bidding process conducted by the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM) last July, with the acquisition approved by the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) last November.

 

President Marcos led the ceremonial turnover together with PSALM, led by Finance Secretary Frederick Go and AP chairman Sabin Aboitiz. Also at the ceremony were Japan Ambassador Endo Kazuya, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin, Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina Roque, Napocor president Jericho Nograles and other Philippine government officials and representatives from Japanese consortium partners Sumitomo and JERA.

 

The CBK HEPP, particularly its Kalayaan HPS, is a critical energy buffer for the Luzon grid. It provides multiple functions: storing water/energy at the top, reducing flash flooding during heavy rains, dispatching power when needed, strengthening grid stability, providing essential ancillary services and contributing to real renewable energy (RE) generation.

 

On the fiscal side, the Department of Finance via PSALM is happy to get P36.3 billion in new revenues from the CBK privatization. The PCC is reminded that they need to hasten approval of important acquisitions. And the privatization of remaining big hydro plants like Agus-Pulangi should be hastened to generate more government revenues without resorting to new taxes and regulatory fees and make the hydro plants become more efficient.

 

More RES

 

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) made a significant reform in the retail electricity market by lowering the eligibility threshold for participation in the Retail Competition and Open Access (RCOA) program, allowing more consumers to choose their electricity supplier.

 

Effective June 26 this year, the minimum demand requirement to qualify for RCOA will be reduced from 500 kilowatts (kW) to 100 kW. This will broaden access to retail competition and empower electricity consumers to exercise supplier choice. The Retail Aggregation Program (RAP) is also covered so multiple end-users in the same location can aggregate their electricity demand and collectively participate in the retail electricity market.

 

Consumers who are dissatisfied with their ECs or served by corporate DUs but want lower rates via aggregation may now choose from other ERC-authorized RES depending on their location, demand profile and preferred contract structure. Among those authorized RES in the country are MGEN RES (formerly GESC) of Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN), Advent Energy of AP, Vantage Energy and MPower of Meralco, SMELC of SMC and others.

 

Fiscal wastes by NEA

 

Another reason why consumers should have more choices in their electricity supply is the bad services by many ECs in the provinces like frequent blackouts or power fluctuations resulting from their unsustainable financial condition. Plus the endless drawdown of taxpayers’ money by the National Electrification Administration (NEA) that monitors and protects the ECs.

 

From 2012 to 2024, NEA received a total of P56 billion in subsidies from taxpayers, or an average of P4.3 billion per year for 13 years. The bulk of this is for providing loans and bailout money for ailing ECs.

 

Recently, the APEC party-list in Congress called for “universal debt restructuring” of ailing ECs. They do not want to pay the interest payments, surcharges and penalties and want other government corporations like Napocor and PSALM to shoulder these costs. But both are also dependent on subsidies. During the same period, 2012–2024, Napocor was getting an average of P1.5 billion per year while PSALM was getting P6.1 billion per year.

 

So APEC and the ECs may soon lobby that the NEA subsidy should further bloat or all electricity consumers in the country should pay for the financial problems of ailing ECs via a universal charge. Including consumers who are efficiently served by corporate DUs and RES and not by ECs. This is not good. The ERC should never grant such a potential lobby. ECs themselves should pay those financial costs.

 

NGCP’s MAR of P376.4 billion

 

The ERC recently approved the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) maximum allowable revenue (MAR) of P376.4 billion for 2023–2027, the 5th Regulatory Period. NGCP proposed P442.6 billion.

 

The ERC also approved this week NGCP’s Annual Revenue Requirement (ARR) of P375.0 billion, lower than its application of P442.6 billion over the same period.

 

A lower than requested MAR and ARR may be good for consumers, as the transmission charge in our monthly electricity bill can remain at around P0.60/kWh NGCP wheeling rate plus another P0.60–P0.70/kWh for ancillary services. But the problem is the rising share of intermittent solar-wind in the grid with no battery, usually in areas far from high-demand urban areas. Capital expenditure needs will be higher compared to more big conventional plants like coal and LNG plants, which are easier and more efficient to transmit electricity from.

BWorld 849, ASEAN trade and China exports dominance

ASEAN trade and China exports dominance

February 5, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/02/05/728525/asean-trade-and-china-exports-dominance/

 

As it is the Chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this year, the Philippines is hosting many meetings prior to the ASEAN Summit plus related summits with major economies — the US, Canada, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, Russia, the EU, etc. — in November.

 

Recent meetings included the 18th Meeting of the Committee of the Whole (CoW) for the ASEAN Economic Community on Jan. 25, the 34th Meeting of the ASEAN Trade Facilitation Joint Consultative Committee (ATF-JCC) on Jan. 26-28, and the 45th ASEAN+3 Bond Market Forum (ABMF) and Related Events on Feb. 2-4.

 

There will be an interesting event, the ASEAN Editors and Economic Opinion Leaders Forum, sponsored by the ASEAN Committee on Business and Investment Promotion (CBIP), on Feb. 24 here in Manila.

 

Last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the full year 2025 merchandise exports and imports data, along with 2024 data. I checked the previous PSA data for 2022 and 2023 and compiled it all in a single table here.

 

One can see that our merchandise or goods exports increased from $73.3 billion in 2024 to $84.4 billion in 2025. Our merchandise exports also increased, from $127.6 billion in 2024 to $133.6 billion in 2025. This is a bit lower than 2022’s imports of $137.2 billion.

 

An interesting trend emerges — the share of imports from China has been rising steadily: from 21% of total imports in 2022, to 23% in 2023, 26% in 2024, and nearly 29% in 2025. In contrast, the shares of imports of the US, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Australia have been declining from 2022 to 2025.

 

There has been a mild increase in the import shares of Thailand and Vietnam, while other countries’ share are generally flat (see Table 1).

 

So for all the anti-China propaganda and campaigns in the Philippines resulting in survey results of low “trust in China,” the economic and trade data show an entirely different story: trust by Philippines businesses and consumers is rising for Chinese products. The Philippines’ trucking, logistics, and construction companies buy more Howo, Shackman, and Jac trucks than Japanese or Korean trucks, and no US trucks. Philippine’ bus companies and tour companies buy more Yutong, Higer, Kinglong, and Zhongtong buses than Japanese, Korean, or European buses, and no US buses. And Philippine motorists are buying more BYD, Geely, MG, and GAC cars, which can endanger the market share of Japanese, Korean, and US car brands.

 

I also checked World Trade Organization (WTO) data on merchandise trade. I chose to focus on exports of manufactures over the last two decades until 2024, as there is no data yet for 2025.

 

Until 2000, the largest exporter of manufactured goods in the world was the US with $648 billion, followed by Germany with $483 billion, and Japan with $450 billion. China had only $220 billion.

 

China overtook them all by 2010 or just one decade later, with $1,476 billion, nearly twice that of the US. In 2024, China’s manufactured exports of $3.26 trillion was nearly three times that of the US, more than two times that of Germany, nearly six times that of Japan and South Korea, and 10 times that of the UK. This demonstrates China’s exports dominance especially in manufactured goods.

 

Among the ASEAN-6, Vietnam’s exports are hopping like a kangaroo, from being the smallest exporter in 2000 with only $6 billion, to the second largest in 2024 with $339 billion. The Philippines has the smallest amount of exports in the ASEAN-6 (see Table 2).

 

The Philippines’ chairmanship of the ASEAN this year should be a great opportunity for the country to focus more on increasing trade, and merchandise exports and imports — non-merchandise or services trade like tourism, overseas labor, and business process outsourcing businesses should follow.

 

The current preoccupation by the unproductive war-mongering sectors to exaggerate the Philippines-China dispute over territory should be tamed. We should focus on more trade and investment, more tourism and cultural exchange, more diplomacy and endless negotiations.

 

We should have more spending on trucks, tractors, buses, gadgets and electronics, and not spending on battleships, jet fighters, and missiles. The ASEAN is a zone of business and commerce hungry for peace and prosperity. We should keep it that way.

PhilStar 79, The DOE leadership, nuclear forum, electric cooperatives and PEPIF 2026

The DOE leadership, nuclear forum, electric cooperatives and PEPIF 2026

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

February 5, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/02/05/2505741/doe-leadership-nuclear-forum-electric-cooperatives-and-pepif-2026

 

I will have five energy topics here so we go straight to them.

 

Rumored change in DOE leadership

 

Last week, there were rumors that an ex-congressman from Luzon is gunning to be the next Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary once the appointment ban for losing candidates in the May 2025 elections is lifted this coming May 2026. This ex-congressman is known for being anti-Meralco franchise renewal, anti-NGCP especially its partnership with SGCC.

 

DOE Secretary Sharon Garin is also a former congresswoman and prior to her appointment and confirmation as secretary, she was DOE undersecretary for three years until May 2025 under Raphael Perpetuo “Popo” Lotilla, who was transferred to become DENR Secretary. So there is continuity in energy policies from Mr. Lotilla to Ms. Garin.

 

Another change in DOE leadership is not good for at least two reasons: uncertainty in overall energy policy direction for the next two years, and possible harassment of distribution utilities (DUs) and the transmission and system operator of the country. The President should keep Secretary Garin and give that ex-congressman another post somewhere, perhaps as undersecretary in other departments.

 

Nuclear energy forum with energy NGOs

 

Last Jan. 22, Alpas Pinas along with Kuryente.org and Partners for Affordable and Reliable Energy (PARE) held a forum on nuclear energy at the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI) in Quezon City. Alpas is a nuclear energy advocacy group while Kuryente and PARE are consumer groups in the power sector.

 

The three speakers were PNRI director Carlos “Caloy” Arcilla, Pangasinan 2nd District Rep. Mark Cojuangco and APEC party-list Rep. Sergio Dagooc. The audience included many NGO leaders like people from ILAW Pilipinas, Green Party, other environmentalist groups pushing for more RE and neutral to anti-nuclear energy.

 

Arcilla spoke about the various applications of nuclear energy not just in power generation but also in medicine and health care, agriculture, industrial applications. Rep. Cojuangco is in his usual self – passionate, articulate speaker on nuclear power generation, large nuclear reactors like the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP), and not small or micro modular reactors. Rep. Dagooc is also pro-nuclear but he also spoke about the various components of our monthly electricity bill and the role of electric cooperatives.

 

I briefly spoke during the open forum and mentioned that BNPP is a beautiful project and it has four “sister” big nuclear plants in Brazil, Slovenia, Spain and South Korea. The five big nuclear plants including BNPP are “sisters” because: All were built by Westinghouse in the 1970s, all experienced cost escalation as construction went on, all started operations in the mid-80s (1983-1987) until today, and all are safe and have zero nuclear accident – except the BNPP.

 

Electric cooperatives seeking financial bailout

 

I saw the privilege speech of Rep. Dagooc in Congress this week seeking a “universal debt restructuring program” for many ailing electric cooperatives (ECs) to “restore their financial health.” He wants the interest payment, penalties and surcharges of these ailing ECs to be shouldered by other government agencies like Napocor, PSALM and NEA.

 

His statements and proposals are additional proof that most, if not all, ECs are inefficient and wasteful, created by politics, monitored and protected by politics via NEA, and kept afloat by tax money via NEA loans to them taken from taxpayers money.

 

He also lambasted the “profit-oriented” system via private DUs. But the congressman regularly flies from Mindanao to Manila via commercial and profit-oriented airlines, stays or attends meetings in profit-oriented hotels. Maybe he implies  that there should also be a non-profit Manananggal Airtravel Cooperative, a non-profit Carinderia Cooperative, and so on.

 

No, ECs should pay their interest charges, penalties. If they cannot be efficient, they should become corporates, monitored by SEC and not NEA. The private DUs like Meralco, VECO, Davao Light, they are doing real public service – zero blackout to customers except on rare cases, sell at competitive prices, give profit to shareholders, give taxes to government, give free services to certain communities.

 

WESM operations January 2026

 

The Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) reported the market operations for January to be reflected in the February 2026 billing. Brix Lelis will surely report on lower prices for February so I will just comment on the energy mix: coal share to total power generation remains high, 53.6 percent last November, 56.3 percent last December 2025 and 58.7 percent last January. Coal share in December 2024 was 61.3 percent.

 

The share of solar plus wind remains small, 6.5 percent of total generation last December 2025 to 7.2 percent last January. Their share in December 2024 was near-insignificant 4.8 percent, despite continuing anti-coal, anti-fossil fuel and heavy RE-pushing and campaigns by the climate establishment.

 

PEPIF 2026

 

The Philippine Electric Power Industry Forum (PEPIF) 2026 organized by IEMOP will be held this coming March 12, Thursday, at John Hay Convention Center, Baguio City. The theme of the 4th PEPIF is “Navigating the Energy Trilemma in Philippines Context: Security, Sustainability, and Equity.”

 

The speakers in the morning plenary are Benguet Gov. Melchor Daguines Diclas, DOE Secretary Garin, ADB country lead for energy Shigeru Yamamura, DOE Undersecretary Rowena Cristina Guevara. From the private sector, speakers are SN Aboitiz Power Group president and CEO Joseph Yu and Exist Software Labs vice president Christopher Silerio.

 

Energy Regulatory Commission chairperson Francis Saturnino Juan will speak after lunch. There will be a big panel discussion in the afternoon to discuss and dig deeper on the mentioned theme with six prominent speakers from the DOE, ERC, PIPPA, Ateneo and NGCP. And I will be the moderator of that panel, I will write more about this panel in the coming weeks.

BWorld 848, On growth in 2025, the CPBRD study, and the RPA UPSE-PDE lecture

On growth in 2025, the CPBRD study, and the RPA UPSE-PDE lecture

February 3, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/02/03/727957/on-growth-in-2025-the-cpbrd-study-and-the-rpa-upse-pde-lecture/

 

Today I will discuss three related topics, so we go straight to the numbers.

 

Last week the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the country’s GDP performance in the fourth quarter (Q4) and that of the full year 2025. It was a disappointing 3% in Q4 and thus, the full year growth was only 4.4% — the lowest since 2012, excluding the -9.5% contraction during the lockdown of 2020.

 

I checked the Q4 2025 data of our Asian neighbors. It turns out that our GDP was actually high compared to other East Asian nations except for Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia. It was also higher than all major economies of Europe and America except Ireland (see Table 1).

 

The UK has released no Q4 2025 data yet, but its GDP growth in recent years was low — 0.4% in 2023, 1.1% in 2024, and 1.5% in Q1-Q3 2025. These numbers are bordering on degrowth and deindustrialization like those of Austria, France, Germany, Italy, etc.

Thus, our 4.4% growth last year is still modest growth and hence, not a justification for economic pessimism. Our recent growth above 5% was pulled down by the continuing infrastructure corruption scandal that blew up last July. The growth slowdown is a necessary correction mechanism so that corruption and overspending can be checked. The detractors who dismiss the Philippines as “unworthy” of investments are using emotion and not reason in their arguments.

 

THE CPBRD STUDY

The Congressional Planning and Budget Research Department (CPBRD), the economic think tank of the House of Representatives, produced a beautiful research report, “The Limits of Expansionary Government Spending: An Initial Exploration of the Fiscal Multiplier in the Philippines,” written by David Joseph Emmanuel Barua Yap, Jr., Rutcher M. Lacaza, Jhoanne E. Aquino, and Edrei Y. Udaundo. The 30-page Discussion Paper No. 3 was published in January, just days before the PSA released the Q4 GDP data.

 

The paper examines fiscal multipliers — pesos of GDP generated or contracted per peso of expenditure. They used the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model estimated through quarterly data from 2010 to 2025, and focused on government expenditures, household consumption, gross capital formation or investments, and GDP.

 

Their research showed that every P1 of government expenditure generated only P0.15 of GDP in Q0, then reduced the GDP by P0.42 in Q1, and then a P1.70 reduction in GDP for the year, suggesting crowding-out effects.

 

For every P1 of household expenditure, the GDP increased by P1.44. And for every P1 in investment or gross capital formation, the GDP increases by P0.64. The CPBRD also correctly predicted that Q4 growth would be 3%. Their prediction of 2026 GDP growth is 4.62% in Q1 and 4.14% for the full year (see Table 2).

 

 

The report’s implications? If we want higher growth, we should cut government spending and borrowings, cut taxes to promote more household spending, and promote more investment and businesses. This was sensible research with sensible proposals.

 

The CPBRD used to be called the Congressional Planning and Budget Office (CPBO). I worked there as a junior economist from 1991-1999 before I joined the private consulting Think Tank, Inc. of former Congressman Gary Teves in 2000, before he became Finance Secretary.

 

THE 4TH RPA ANNUAL LECTURE

The 4th Ruperto P. Alonzo (RPA) memorial lecture will be held this coming Friday, Feb. 6, at 3 p.m., at the UP School of Economics in Diliman, Quezon City. It is sponsored by the UPSE Program in Development Economics (PDE) Alumni Association and the Philippine Center for Economic Development (PCED).

 

The main speaker is the acting secretary of the Department of Budget and Management, Rolando U. Toledo, who is a PDE alumnus from batch 29. The most recent Budget and Management Secretary, Amenah F. Pangandaman, is a PDE alumna from batch 33. The theme of the lecture is “Protecting Fiscal Integrity: Fighting Corruption in Public Finance.”

 

The two discussants after Mr. Toledo’s presentation will be Dr. Cielo Magno, UPSE faculty member and former Finance undersecretary, and Dr. Romulo Emmanuel “Jun” Miral, Jr., Deputy Secretary General of the House of Representatives and head of the CPBRD. The moderator will be Dr. JC Punongbayan, also a UPSE faculty member.

 

Prof. Ruping Alonzo was a beloved faculty member of UPSE for 45 years (1968-2013), the Director of PDE for many years, occasional drinking buddy of our PDE batch 33, and my wedding godfather. His wife, Zorayda Amelia “Mel” Alonzo who was former President and CEO of Pag-Ibig Fund, will give the closing remarks after the lecture.

 

The lecture is free, open to the public. So come dear readers, and catch these three brilliant officials discuss public finance intelligently and quantitatively.

Earth Hour 11, Rising use of fossil fuels and rising life expectancy

Rising life expectancy with rising fossil fuels consumption.

1. Global oil consumption: 1965, 30.9 million barrels per day (mbpd); 

1995, 70.4 mbpd; 2024, 101.4 mbpd.

2. Global gas consumption, 1965, 630 billion cubic meters (bcm); 

1995, 2,110 bcm; 2024, 4,128 bcm.

3. Global coal consumption, 1965, 58.2 exajoules (EJ);

1995, 93.6 EJ; 2024, 165.1 EJ.

More fossil fuels, more electricity, more modern life, higher productivity, higher prosperity and life expectancy.

And today the climate establishment wants to celebrate the annual "Darkness is beautiful" via "Earth Hour", hehe. They may be joyful of current expensive oil, gas and coal, which force people to reduce consumption of these useful products. Miserable minds.

----------

Meanwhile, the re-awakening about the value, beauty and reliability of coal energy. 

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/25/markets/energy-shock-asia-coal/

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/03/27/coal-power-plants-energy/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-considers-increasing-coal-fired-power-war-disrupts-lng-imports-2026-03-27/

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Japan-Considers-Switch-From-LNG-to-Coal.html

Last November I saw Japan's largest coal plant, the Hekinan coal thermal plant in Nagoya owned by JERA Power, JP's largest energy company. Then the Futtsu Gas thermal plant in Chubu, near Tokyo, also JP's largest LNG plant and 3rd largest LNG plant in the world. Hekinan has 5 units, 1 of which is being planned to be converted to ammonia plant, 

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/12/02/715689/japans-jera-power/

Now JERA realizes they need more coal plant, good, brilliant decision. I think the plan to convert one unit of coal plant to ammonia plant will be cancelled.

-------------

See also:

Earth Hour 8, Celebrate darkness vs modernization, March 23, 2017 
Earth Hour 9, Hate-love of fossil fuels, March 24, 2018

Earth Hour 10, Higher electricity consumption in EH 2020, April 16, 2020

BWorld 693, On Earth Hour, Lenten travel, and Pinoys in Toronto, April 06, 2024

BWorld 847, Illicit trade and tobacco taxation

Illicit trade and tobacco taxation

January 27, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/01/27/726499/illicit-trade-and-tobacco-taxation/

 

While waiting for the full year 2025 cash operations report (COR) of the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr), I checked the data from January-November 2025. The budget deficit is P1.26 trillion and since National Government disbursements in December reached around P600 billion while revenue was around P300 billion, the full year deficit may reach P1.56 trillion.

 

The bulk of our budget deficit comes from interest payments alone, an average of P1.7 billion/day in 2023; P2.1 billion/day in 2024; and P2.4 billion/day in 2025. New financing or net borrowings were P1.45 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025 (see Table 1).

 

TOBACCO SMUGGLING

Recently I noticed that there have been many reports on tobacco smuggling. Look at how many stories on the topic came out in the Philippine Star this month alone: “P1.5 billion smuggled cigarettes found in Malabon” (Jan. 2), “3 nabbed over P21.2 million smuggled cigarettes” (Jan. 7), “Cops seize P97.4-M worth imported cigarettes in Maguindanao del Norte” (Jan. 8), “P100.57 million smuggled cigarettes seized in Bataan” (Jan. 11), “P20 million worth of smuggled cigarettes seized by cops” (Jan. 12), “Security officers tagged in illegal cigarette trade” (Jan. 20), “House to probe pols over cigarette smuggling” (Jan. 22), “Gatchalian wants Senate probe on tobacco smuggling” (Jan. 23), “BIR seizes P516 million illicit cigarettes; Senate eyes probe” (Jan. 25), “Running after smugglers” (“Commonsense” opinion column by Marichu A. Villanueva) Jan. 23, and the Jan. 26 Editorial, “Get the smugglers” (Jan. 26).

 

Kudos to actions by Customs Commissioner Ariel F. Nepomuceno and Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) Commissioner Charlito Martin R. Mendoza, and to the investigations made by Representative Miro S. Quimbo, the Chair of the House Committee on Ways and Means, and Senator Sherwin T. Gatchalian, the Chair of the Senate Committee on Finance. 

 

Mr. Quimbo cited the calculations of both the BIR and Customs Bureau that in 2025, there were revenue losses of P44.8 billion from cigarette smuggling across the country.

 

Mr. Gatchalian believes that “Tobacco smuggling can only happen with collusion between politicians and law enforcement agencies.”

 

I believe that the decline in the amount from tobacco tax revenues coincided, or is directly caused by a consistent rise in the tobacco tax rate — from P50/pack that yielded P176 billion in tobacco tax revenues in 2021, to P63.20/pack that yielded only P134 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, tax collections from alcohol, sugar-sweetened beverages, mining, and automobiles have been either flat or rising somewhat (see Table 2).

 

 

Ordinary and poor smokers will not buy the legal cigarettes at P100/pack or more because the tax alone is already P66.20/pack. They will instead shift to smuggled cigarettes at P50/pack or less because the tax is zero. The BIR and Department of Finance get nothing from the smuggled cigarettes to help finance public expenditures.

 

Reports or “studies” that claim “illicit tobacco trade is as low as less than 1% in Metro Manila cities” are not accurate and here are two pieces of proof.

 

One, during the Senate Committee on Finance public hearings chaired by Senator Gatchalian in March and May 2025, on both instances he instructed his staff to buy smuggled tobacco in Quiapo. Within an hour, the staff members returned with many reams of illicit products, saying that those goods were easy to buy, cheap, and were openly displayed and not hidden. Mr. Gatchalian displayed the newly bought illicit tobacco to all participants of the Committee hearing, including the health activists and physicians who were repeatedly arguing that the amount of illicit tobacco is small and exaggerated.

 

Two, I personally saw such illicit products being sold when I walked along Ongpin St. in Binondo, Manila about two years ago to check out some jewelry for my daughter. I saw a girl, who looked about high school age, openly displaying reams of cigarettes that were obviously 100% illicit because they were (a.) cheap, P60 or less if you bought more at a time (2024) when the tax rate was already P63/pack; (b.) the packs had no graphics warning; and, (c.) many sported Chinese characters. The young girl’s “stall” was less than 100 meters from a nearby police station and barangay outpost.

 

The BIR and Finance department could collect P176 billion/year or more, not just P134 billion/year, from tobacco and help reduce the deficit and borrowings. How? I can think of two ways.

 

One, reduce the price differential between legal and illegal cigarettes by bringing the tax rate back to P60/pack or less, reducing the temptation of smokers to patronize illicit tobacco where government tax collection is zero.

 

Two, for vapes and heated products, reduce the opportunity for tax dodging by having a low single rate or just two rates with low differential between the two rates.

 

The government should focus on controlling crime — murder, robbery, destruction of property, abduction, and rape — acts that harm other people. The government should step back from controlling people’s actions that do not harm others except themselves — high-speed downhill cycling, climbing tall trees, sedentary living, drinking, smoking, vaping, consuming fatty-oily-sugary food and drinks, and so on. Allow for more personal and parental responsibility to protect personal and public health.

PhilStar 78, Solar sa Politika and energy security

Solar sa Politika and energy security

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

January 29, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/01/29/2504130/solar-sa-politika-and-energy-security

 

January is always cold, usually the coldest month every year in the tropics north of the equator, and even in the northern hemisphere. Solar as energy source has also been weak in the country this month as it was mostly cloudy and solar dislikes clouds and other shade.

 

But solar business has been hot this month. See these recent reports in The STAR mostly written by Brix Lelis: “DOE says Solar Philippines’ contract failures cost P24 billion” (Jan. 13), “Leviste’s Solar Para sa Bayan now defunct” (Jan. 16), “Lawmaker slams Leviste for ‘ghost’ solar projects” (Jan. 19), “Garin: Leviste guilty of conflict of interest” (Jan. 22), “SPNEC rebrand sparks buzz over MGreen listing” (Jan. 23), “Leviste exits SPNEC, MTerra Solar boards” (Jan. 24).

 

Rep. Leandro Leviste is a neophyte congressman from Batangas and son of Sen. Loren Legarda and former Batangas governor Antonio Leviste, and founder-owner of Solar Philippines Power Project Holdings Inc. (SPPPHI or SP for short) and Solar Para sa Bayan Corp. (SPBC). I call his companies as “Solar sa Politika” because of the deep political connections and privileges that he enjoyed, like getting a congressional franchise for SPBC, the only RE company with its own franchise.

 

His company SP has been slapped by the Department of Energy (DOE) with a P24 billion penalty for its failure to deliver its commitments, to develop some 11,400 MW of solar farms under 42 Service Contracts (SCs) with DOE from 2017-2022.

 

DOE Secretary Sharon Garin said the DOE consistently reached out to SP regarding its contracts but the company failed to respond. So DOE terminated 24 of the 42 SCs.

 

Despite these, SP got a second chance, winning one of two bids in the Green Energy Auction (GEA) program of DOE. Then seven existing solar and wind projects awarded to SP under the GEA scheme are currently tagged by the DOE as “non-compliant” since none of the committed construction projects were completed before Dec. 25, 2025.

 

Instead of recognizing his corporate lapses and non-compliance with DOE, Leviste looked for a scapegoat and pointed to government red tape as a reason why his projects stalled.

 

I am no fan of intermittent renewable energy (RE) like solar and wind for many economic reasons, especially their higher inflation effect. I made a computation of (Solar+Wind) as percent of total power generation (S+W)/T, 2014 vs 2024. Then I computed the average inflation that covered both years, 2013-2015 vs 2023-2025. The results of (a) (S+W)/T ratio in 2014 to 2024, and (b) average inflation 2013-2025 to 2023-2025, both units in percent, are as follows:

 

Indonesia: (a) 0 to 0.4, (b) 6.4 to 2.5.

Malaysia: (a) 0.2 to 1.6, (b) 2.5 to 1.9.

Thailand: (a) 1.3 to 4.4, (b) 1.1 to 0.6.

Philippines: (a) 0.2 to 3.9, (b) 2.3 to 3.6.

Vietnam: (a) 0.1 to 12.7, (b) 3.8 to 3.4.

Japan: (a) 2.7 to 10.6, (b) 1.3 to 3.2.

 

Germany: (a) 15.0 to 42.8, (b) 1.0 to 3.5

Portugal: 24.1 to42.7, (b) 0.3 to 3.4.

UK: (a) 10.7 to 34.7, (b) 1.4 to 4.3.

Belgium: (a) 10.3 to 28.9, (b) 0.8 to 3.1.

 

The results of the above exercise showed that (i) the higher the increase in (S+W)/T ratio, the higher the increase in inflation, which is the case of all G7 countries and many Europeans; and (ii) the lower the (S+W)/T ratio, inflation declines.

 

But private energy companies, global and national, have been compromised and tied up with RE laws that made coercive mandates. So the companies must comply with rising share of solar and wind, or pay penalties which can be high. For now we have to comply with the RE law and work for its drastic revisions someday. Some reforms that are still compliant with the RE law below.

 

Regulatory reforms

 

One, strengthen and secure investor confidence amidst the SP controversy. New players will come to replace and occupy the vacant SCs left by SP. The DOE should avoid a repeat of this via measures to strengthen the rule of law in the RE sector.

 

Two, DOE to expedite ongoing procurement bids by capable industry players to replace non-performing developers. While fast-tracking is important, DOE should not compromise the consistent application of its procurement standards, requirements and protocols.

 

Three, have additional safeguards to ensure that interested players are truly financially and technically capable of delivering their commitments. Capable of complying with the agreed delivery commencement date (DCD).

 

Four, consider also the track record in terms of execution and operation of new SC bidders. GEA is a 20-year contract and hence, cannot be left to newbies with no track record.

 

Five, simplified business rules to expedite construction. While procurement, bidding, and auction are administered by the DOE, construction of solar and wind farms require other permits and clearances from other agencies. Like local governments, DENR and NCIP.

 

Six, NGCP to keep expanding the transmission system especially for large RE projects while ensuring to manage power variability.

 

Seven, DOE should conduct a parallel baseload energy auction (BEA) along with GEA. The goal is to have energy security and reliability. No blackout even for a minute.

 

Eight, Rep. Leviste should pay the penalties. He can ask for “discount” on rates of penalties, or ask for recomputation of the basis for penalties, the DOE should assist his intention to pay the penalties.

 

Nine, if DOE gives a “discount” even f the penalty is proven to be correct, DOE should suspend or disqualify the player in future GEA.

 

Ten, overall impact on the economy especially on potential GDP growth and inflation should be considered in balancing GEA and BEA.

BWorld 846, Emotion, not reason, behind plunder raps vs Recto in PhilHealth fund transfer

Emotion, not reason, behind plunder raps vs Recto in PhilHealth fund transfer

January 22, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/01/22/725594/emotion-not-reason-behind-plunder-raps-vs-recto-in-philhealth-fund-transfer/

 

In 2024, several countries were so hard up economically that their GDP growth was really low, like Italy’s 0.7%, Japan’s 0.1% and Germany’s -0.2%, which was an economic contraction. Other Asian countries were growing at below 5%, like Singapore’s 4.4%, Taiwan’s 4.3%, Thailand and Hong Kong’s 2.5%, and South Korea’s 2%.

 

But the Philippines grew by 5.7%, the third highest growth among the world’s top 50 large economies by GDP size, trailing only Vietnam and India.

 

Our inflation rate also fell, from 6% in 2023 to only 3.2% in 2024, and further down to only 1.6% in 2025 (see the table).

 

The outstanding performance of the Philippines was led by the economic team including former Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto. President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. saw Mr. Recto’s hard work at the Department of Finance (DoF) so he promoted him to be his Executive Secretary last November.

 

Then out came the brickbats. See these reports in BusinessWorld: “Plunder, other raps filed vs Recto, Ledesma over PhilHealth fund transfer” (Dec. 22, 2025), “Fresh plunder complaint filed against Recto, Ledesma over PhilHealth fund transfer” (Jan. 15).

 

I think these cases can be considered “emotional misconduct” by the petitioners, who used the Supreme Court ruling on the Philippine Health Insurance Corp. (PhilHealth) fund transfer but did not read the arguments of the Justices who said that there was no plunder, no malversation of funds, no misconduct on the part of Mr. Recto. As per Justice Raul B. Villanueva:

 

“As previously discussed, and further explained herein, Special Provision 1(d) and DoF Circular No. 003-2024 are not unconstitutional….

 

“Crucially as well, the requisite elements, among others, for both technical malversation or plunder are not present. For plunder, the core element of amassing or acquiring ill-gotten wealth is completely negated as the PhilHealth fund balance was actually remitted to the National Treasury, and to no one else, particularly not even to the Office of the President or the DoF. As to technical malversation, a key element is that the questioned funds was placed ‘under (the offender’s) administration,’ which is not what happened in the case of the PhilHealth fund balance since what was transferred to the National Treasury was not directly handled by the President or the DoF Secretary….

 

“Secretary Recto cannot be held liable for issuing DoF Circular No. 003-2024… The DoF was directed to issue DoF Circular No. 003-2024 as required in Special Provision 1(d). In doing so, it precisely obeyed a special provision in the 2024 GAA. Clearly, the DoF did not act solely on its own or issued the subject circular without any basis or authority at all. The language of Special Provision 1(d) is unequivocal; the DoF has the duty to issue the guidelines to implement the said provision within 15 days from the effectivity of the 2024 GAA. For its obedience, no fault can or should be attributed to the DoF…

 

“To hold Secretary Recto liable in any way whatsoever is like punishing him for simply doing his job. If he did not comply with the valid dictates of Special Provision 1(d), then he may possibly become culpable of violating the law, which would have made his situation even worse.”

 

Justice Raul Villanueva was my contemporary at the University of the Philippines (UP) School of Economics undergrad in the mid-1980s. We belong to the same organization, UP Economics Towards Consciousness (UP-ETC), along with Justice Marvic Leonen, though they are respectively younger and older than me by one year. Justice Villanueva was an intelligent economics student, then proceeded to UP Law. His arguments in the excerpt above are consistent with his high academic achievements and objective assessment.

 

The petitioners used emotion and not reason, and intellectual dishonesty when they filed their plunder case against Mr. Recto. The man has worked hard to improve the Philippines’ economy. Let him do more hard work for the country and not be harassed by emotional litigation.