Showing posts with label Rodrigo Duterte. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rodrigo Duterte. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

China Watch 28, Duterte sailing to PH Rise in the east when dispute is in the west

My friend from UP Diliman days in the 80s, Jose Antonio Custodio posted this in his fb wall yesterday:

Dear Armed Forces of the Philippines,

As your naval units steam eastward at Benham Rise covered by your air assets and away from the main operational area of the West Philippine Sea towards the general direction of the United States of America, while led by your deranged commander in chief, let me just say that is the best example of an advance in the opposite direction.

Rest assured this masterful operation will result in hordes of Chinese dying....
...of laughter at the irony of it all.

The AFP is following the DDS -- Duterte Dishonesty in the Sea? There is no territorial dispute at the Benham/PH Rise, why should the President go there? The big territorial and political dispute is in the WPS/SCS, why not go there?

I think one answer is what Jose pointed out -- Du30 wants many Chinese communist leaders to die... of laughing.

See these news reports:

Palace: Duterte’s Benham Rise visit set for May 15-16
Published May 8, 2018 12:18pm

In the two reports below, another friend from UP in the 80s, Prof. Jay Batongbacal of UP College of Law is quoted.

Duterte's PH rise visit 'unfortunate' - maritime expert
ABS-CBN News, Posted at May 09 2018 11:00 AM

From PH Rise, Duterte urged to proceed to Panatag, WPS
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 07:04 AM May 12, 2018

Some background reports:

China installs cruise missiles on South China Sea outposts: CNBC
Reuters Staff MAY 3, 2018 / 7:48 AM /

China deploys military aircraft, 15 warships in Spratlys
Jaime Laude (The Philippine Star) - May 11, 2018 - 12:00am


Now this pronouncement is weird. It should come from the AFP commander in chief (CIC), the President, not from the AFP chief of staff (COS).

AFP vows to protect PH claims in Spratlys amid China buildup
By: Frances G. Mangosing - @inquirerdotnet INQUIRER.net / 04:46 PM May 14, 2018

The AFP cannot even patrol at the WPS/SCS because the CIC does not want them to go there, then the COS pronounces like that. Pang dyaryo/media epek lang. Ayaw ni CIC, ano magagawa ni COS? eh di mag press release na lang.

Classic case of a state not doing its function of protecting its own territory from a bully neighbor. In this case, the China communist dictatorial government. See this developed artificial island at Zamora Reef in the Spratlys, now fully controlled by China. Photo from the Inquirer.


Additional story,

China’s missiles in the South China Sea mean girding for war
By ROBERT E. MCCOY MAY 14, 2018 12:55 PM (UTC+8)
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See also:

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

On Duterte's closure of Boracay for 6 months

"Boracay island is state property. Thus, the state may decide what to do with it, close it down or take it over."

What is wrong, or correct, with this statement?

In the wall of Rotary PDG Jimmy A. Cura who defends the total closure of Boracay for 6 months, Bobi Tiglao commented there and posted his paper and asked me if he is correct or wrong in his arguments, http://www.manilatimes.net/supreme-court-2008-decision-boracay-state-property/381678/

My comment:

"Boracay is state property." Tiglao is correct. Maybe as it is a legal issue and I am no lawyer to comment on the legal technicalities of it.

"state which has ownership of this once paradisiacal island. It therefore may decide what to do with it, close it down or take it over." Tiglao is partly correct and party wrong.

There is a difference between ownership of the land and ownership of the structures and development above the land. Like public forest land, owned by the state through the DENR but industrial forestry/ mature trees are owned by private individuals or an NGO or corporate entity that was authorized by the DENR to do tree planting, growing and harvesting, subject to taxes and charges upon harvest.

The same way in Boracay, the land maybe owned by the state but the structures, hotels, restaurants, shops on top of it are owned by private individuals and enterprises. These entities were recognized and allowed by various govt agencies -- LGUs (barangay, municipal, provincial), SEC, DTI, BIR, DOT, DENR, DOH, BFP-DILG, etc -- to put up businesses there. 

If the state via the Du30 government decides to "close it down or take over", the state may do so -- ONLY upon proper compensation of the costs and investments made by private enterprises.

If one will insist on zero compensation, just close it down or take over, that is dictatorship and large-scale state robbery.

In quotation are additional points from Gov. Jimmy A. Cura:

"Bobi’s point in his well-written article is meritorious"
--> No. There was nothing in Bobi's article considering compensation for private enterprises, especially compliant ones. Hence, Bobi's paper just supports dictatorial closure, no justice to private enterprises.

"those who put up structures in complete disregard of the law are hardly entitled to invoke the protection of the very same law"
--> Then by extension, those govt agencies that allowed the building of those structures, that gave permits and renewed permits annually, that collected taxes, fees and charges year in and year out, should also be closed, if not abolished.

From JJ Soriano the other day:

"To set aside all fears about the real motives for the Boracay closure I move to ask the government to appoint Former Environment Secretary Gina Lopez to be the private sector co-Chair of the Boracay Rehabilitation Committee"

I commented that there should be just compensation for the affected businesses and jobs, short- or long-term displacement.

JJ countered that "it should be net of their payment for their contribution to the damage of Boracay."

Weird. People think that ALL enterprises there have negative externalities to Boracay, no one contributed positive externalities? Millions of people who went there and been coming back again and again only "enjoyed" negative externalities?

Now see these news reports -- that Boracay is an agri land, not a tourism-hotels-bars-golf course land. And there are many farmers there, not hotel workers, boatmen, traders and vendors.


For those who support the total closure for 6 months with little or zero compensation, something to clap and celebrate for you and Digong.
  

Meanwhile, an id... Jojo Estrada posted this in Gov. Jimmy's wall...


No discussion, only name-calling. If this is posted in my wall, I will reprimand the person or delete the comment. I expect Gov Jimmy A. Cura to do something about name calling in his wall but he did nothing, kept silent and retained it. "Is it fair to all concerned?" Oh well...

Finally, posted by Yendor Aloid today -- transcript of PRRD press con on boracay:

TRACTORS FOR BORACAY

PRRD: Now if you are asking of a financial help, we are—I’m going to sign the proclamation of calamity and we can make available about 2 billion of assistance. But these are only for the poor Filipinos. I will not spend any single centavo for those inns there, hotel owners or motels. At iyong magagandang bahay, do not expect me to pay anything. That money is only intended for the Filipino. Iyong mga foreigners neither reparations or renumerations. Eh sila iyong pumasok diyan, they should know na bawal. Iyong 2 billion diyan and the other help of—each department has its own contingency plan. So mayroon magtulungan kami.

But master plan wala akong master plan diyan, linisin ko muna iyan kasi agricultural iyan. So maybe after that, I’ll give the farmers—i-land reform ko na iyan mas mabuti pa. I’ll tell you now. I-land reform ko lahat iyan then I’ll give it to the farmers. Me, I’ll give them the tractors, iyong ano—agricultural eh. Eh ‘di ibigay ko muna sa—bago ano iyang—well sabihin ninyo, how about the business? Well, I’m sorry but that is the law. The law says it is forestal/agricultural. Why would I deviate from that? Do I have a good reason to do the what? What? Mga casino? Who owns the casino? Hotels? Big ones. Who owns them? Eh mga mayaman pati iyong mga dayo. Eh agricultural man kaya iyan, eh ‘di ibigay ko sa farmers.

You want to know now? I’m going to read the announcement. It is going to be a land reform area for the Filipinos. Now, if they want to build something there, they can build in a floating—unahin ko iyon, lilinisin ko lang naman, ibalik ko sa Filipino iyong lupa nila.
---

PRRD: Walang akong plano diyang casino-casino. Tama na iyan kasi sobra na. May casino dito, casino doon. Give it to the people who need it most. That is an announcement: It will be a land reform area, period.

Tuesday, April 03, 2018

Post-Holy week penitence

Belated holy week penitencia. High taxes and politics never fail to inflict pain on the public. At least five instances here. 
(this photo I got from SunStar)

(1) Economist sees nearly 6% inflation in May-June
Czeriza Valencia (The Philippine Star) - March 28, 2018

“(Alvin) Ang said inflation for 2018 is expected to peak in May to June which coincides with the opening of the new school year and the financial preparations for such, during which inflation is expected to peak “close to six percent.”

“The effect of TRAIN (Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion) is still not fully felt, so this is a continuing impact of TRAIN. The full-blown impact of TRAIN will be in May to June so  there will be two more months of adjustments,” he said.

Malacanang horror-comedy...

(2) 'Apostle' Andanar likens Duterte to Jesus
Updated as of Oct 06 2016 11:42 PM

And the "Jesus of the Philippines" has this mouth....

(3) Duterte: Yan mga NPA naglalaway sa mga baril natin, tayo sa babae lang

(4) DOTR horror-comedy. Sec. Tugade, nagpapara ng bus to lecture the driver of his violation – bus overloading. But the bus is near empty (March 30, 2018)

(5) As recommended closure nears, fate of almost 30k Boracay workers hangs in balance
Published March 30, 2018 4:10pm

Boracay closure for 6-12 months, I think there is plan by Duterte business cronies to force the bankruptcy of some or many resorts there, the non-chain hotels especially, then local cronies + China Communist Party cronies will come in big swoop, gobble up the fledgling and losing resorts, then Boracay will be "open to the world" again.

On rising inflation, this comedy is not from Malacanang but from TRAIN rah-rah boys Action for Economic Reforms (AER). Governmentt and NGO, they speak and argue the same language, blurred difference bet govt and "non-govt", jokers. http://bworldonline.com/inflation-become-bogeyman/

Notice that this rising inflation does not include yet fare adjustments by jeepneys, bus lines, truckers, shipping lines, airlines. I think Malacanang and LTFRB/MARINA/CAB will not grant those fare hikes this year, "CSR" na lang daw ng oil companies. Then by January 2019, another oil price hikes by TRAIN law, then rah-rah boys will produce again another article of "inflation bogeyman", ayos. Govt and "non-govt", they speak the same.

Ateneo Economics Department should produce more Alvin Ang who can objectively see the inflationary pressure of energy tax hikes. Another Ateneo economist and former NEDA chief has been pushing hard for higher electricity price hikes via huge coal tax, P600/ton (vs P50/ton in 2018, P100 in 2019, P150 in 2020). Make coal power become expensive, silent on natgas which is another fossil fuel, because he is a Board of Director of FirstGen and silent about it, does not disclose it when he writes. Unlike Romeo Bernardo who honestly and transparently discloses his affiliations with Ayala, Aboitiz Power, Phinma Energy, before he opens his mind about energy policies.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

Duterte's planned disrespect of private property in Boracay


The Duterte government shows once more its penchant to disrespect private property with pronouncements like "Bomb/blow up illegal structures" or "Totally close all Boracay resorts." See these news headlines yesterday and the other day.

“The government would not hesitate to send the Marines and” blow up” illegal structures in the shores of Boracay if resort owners would continue to defy orders to clean up the famous island, a Palace official said.”




Whether Duterte-Roque are serious or palusot "joke only" in making that statement of using the marines, they are idiotic. 

Illegal structures, resorts with no sufficient business permits, improper disposal of solid and liquid wastes -- these are local government and police concerns, not military concerns. West PH Sea/SCS militarization by the China Communist Party is a military and foreign affairs concern.

The military/AFP's main mandate is external defense, not internal police function. Roque-Duterte cannot distinguish between internal vs external concerns for the military.

Now see this from PhilStar:

'Total closure
If she would have her way, Tourism Secretary Wanda Teo would rather go for the full closure of Boracay to speed up the cleaning operations there.
“I think it will depend on Secretary Cimatu (partial or full closure) but, for me, I think it should be total because work will be done faster. If it is partial, it will take time and we only have six months to do (the cleanup),” she told reporters.'

Closure of Boracay businesses, whether partial or total, is against respect of private property. People and business enterprises there have a contract with the state via DOT, SEC, DENR, DTI, BIR, DOLE, DOH, LGUs, etc. Businesses will abide by the corporate, environmental, health and sanitation, labor protection, other regulations by the government and private enterprises have the freedom to do business, to provide various goods and services to the people, local and foreign.

Now there are unconfirmed stories that mainland Chinese businesses and casino operators are rushing to go to Boracay. Worth watching if this is true or fake news.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

BWorld 159, Electoral reforms and the President

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last Monday.


President Rodrigo Duterte has been on a rampage recently, repeating his warnings about declaring a “revolutionary government,” as if he has the authority to issue laws and orders without consideration or fear of opposition from independent-minded legislators.

Among his previous rants include his order to his loyal leaders in Congress to (a) impeach the Commission on Elections (Comelec) Chairman Andres D. Bautista, (b) impeach Chief Justice Maria Lourdes P. A. Sereno, (c) impeach Ombudsman Conchita Carpio-Morales, and (d) create new rules in electoral exercises such as postponing and resetting the barangay elections.

Speaking of electoral reforms, some things are better retained and while others should be changed. Among these are the following.

1. Retain automation and do not entertain the proposal by certain sectors to go back to manual counting of the votes. The number of voters in the country is rising and machines should take care of the counting and processing of results (see table).


The lobbying of the son of a former dictator, Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr., to discredit the results of the 2016 national elections and canvassing for vice-president has been rejected by the Supreme Court — good riddance. It was a dangerous attempt by Mr. Marcos to unseat the elected VP so that he can be the second highest official in the country, a position that is just heartbeat away from the Presidency, a position held by his father for 20 years (1965-1985) via deception and large-scale military coercion.

2. Elections of barangay officials should be as scheduled and not subject to postponement by the President or Congress.

Elections should held at regular and predictable intervals to give space and opportunity for the people to directly demand accountability from their elected leaders. Existing laws mandate fixed terms of office for elected national and local leaders.

3. No to state subsidy to political parties as proposed by certain sectors. This is a wasteful use of taxpayers money. Politicians and political parties have resources of their own or have access to a network that allows them to solicit big donations from their friends and supporters. Keep the tax money for direct subsidy to the poor, or cut taxes instead so that people can enjoy the fruits of their labor.

Meanwhile, if the proposed charter change (cha-cha) should materialize, the following reforms should be considered.

4. Abolish the party list system. This is wrong in both theory and practice. In theory, there are no marginalized sectors, only marginalized individuals. Women are not a marginalized sector. The country had two women Presidents already, a number of senators and House members are women. Youth is not a marginalized sector as many young leaders are occupying very high political and corporate positions. Farmers are not marginalized as there are many rich farmers and agri-business entrepreneurs, although many farmers are indeed poor. Electric cooperatives do not belong to the marginalized sector.

In practice, many non-poor individuals and groups have entered the legislature through the backdoor afforded by the party-list system.

5. Abolish the Sangguniang Kabataan (SK). Young people should not be encouraged to enter the world of politics early because government, by nature, is force and coercion. Young people should focus instead on voluntary and civil society action and learn the arts of entrepreneurship early.

6. Elect only the political party, not candidates, should the Philippines become parliamentary. Once put in effect, parties will stay focused on their political ideologies and advocacy and not on personalities.

7. Go back to the two-party system. Very often, debate on public issues can be limited to whether there should be increased government interventions and regulations or fewer, whether there should be more and higher taxes or less, whether there should be free trade or protectionism. Candidates and voters can align themselves on either of two opposing positions.

Many candidates can be accommodated by the two parties and they will all go through primaries and knock themselves out until only one will represent the respective party. This could have prevented a Duterte win because many candidates in the 2016 elections talked about respecting the rule of law while Duterte repeatedly argued for breaking the law and short cut the process of winning the drugs war.

8. Or retain the multi-party system but have a round two elections where only the top two candidates will contest and “knock out” the other candidate in an open electoral system.

Again, this could have prevented a Duterte win because supporters of the 3rd, 4th and 5th placers can rethink their position and choose only either the 1st or 2nd placer. This will avoid having a “minority President.”
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See also:

Sunday, October 01, 2017

Drugs War 8, Duterte government as drug fighter, or facilitator?

While some 8,000 to 14,000 suspected drug users and small-time drug pushers have been murdered  over the on-going drugs war of the Duterte government, there was not a single "big fish" drug lord and drug pusher who has been arrested. Well, two municipal Mayors and their friends, family members have been massacred over the past few months, suspected of being drug pushers in their areas. But they are not considered as "big fish" enough.

The P6.4 billion worth of shabu that went through the Bureau of Customs (BOC) and was later raided at a warehouse in Valenzuela, not a single big personalities implicated in the Senate investigations was arrested or prosecuted. Then this news report from the Inquirer on August 09, 2017, Shabu shipments to Valenzuela warehouse began in June 2016, says caretaker.


From Bernard Ong, fb wall:

IN TIME FOR NEW MANAGEMENT
September 26

Shipments were made in June 2016, January 2017, March 2017, and May 2017 (intercepted). Not a moment wasted. The first one in time for Davao Group - the political cabal, not its namesake criminal syndicate - taking power in Imperial Manila.

Mr. Duterte won as President in May 2016. The next month, large-scale shipment of shabu started under President Duterte. Cool.


From 1.8 M estimated drug users, Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) official study and survey until February 2016, it became 4 M drug users according to the President himself, and now up to 7 M users according to DFA Sec. Cayetano.

If the President and the DFA Secretary are correct in their numbers, then it means one thing -- the supply of drugs is expanding, the price of drugs is declining due to bigger supply, so the number of users is rising. Good business model.

More posts from Bernard Ong:

DUMB INTEL
September 29

Who are the 'credible sources' behind these?

A) Taiwan Triads main source of Shabu to Philippines
UN Office for Drugs & Crime analysis traces most shabu in the Philippines, Asia & the world to China. Single biggest drug haul - P6.4B shabu smuggling came from China.

B) Marawi terrorism due by drug arrest warrant
AFP says it was triggered by sighting & attempt to arrest Abu Sayyaf chief Hapilon.

C) Fake Trillanes offshore accounts.
Duterte admitted he lied & made up numbers, then said 'real' numbers came from Mocha & Tulfo.

D) Teen killings are the work of saboteurs out to discredit Drug War

PNP cops are suspected of murder in both Kian and Carl cases. They invoke Duterte's standard 'Nanlaban' excuse for the killings.
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See also:

Saturday, September 16, 2017

On the CHR P1,000 or $20 budget for 2018

The House of Representatives led by Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez passed the proposed 2018 budget and it gave the Commission on Human Rights (CHR) a mere P1,000, less than $20, budget for 2018. Key Duterte officials are displeased with the CHR, headed by Atty. Chito Gascon (a friend since the 80s in UP Diliman) because of its investigation of many murder cases where the main suspects are policemen.

Last Wednesday, September 13, while I was queuing at NAIA for my flight to the US via Korean Air, Chito called me, he would be on the same flight as mine. Picture muna :-)


The CHR was created by the 1987 Constitution, not by Congress and much less by the House of Alvarez. Alvarez wants Chito to resign as CHR head, then he will reinstate the proposed P600+ million 2018 budget. Now look at his reasoning below. Low life logic.


Another lawyer-friend from UP, Gigo Alampay, explained it well in his fb wall the other day.

It is the responsibility of the Commission on Human Rights (CHR) to protect the rights of the people from abuse BY STATE AGENTS such as the government, police and the military. As a response to our experience with Martial Law, the CHR was created to ensure that the government will not abuse and violate its duty to protect the primary rights of the people.

It is NOT the job of the CHR to investigate violations committed by a non-state or non-government actors, such as criminals. This is not because the CHR condones those heinous acts. Rather, it is simply because investigating crimes is the job of the police. Requiring the CHR to expand its responsibilities to these violations is not only redundant. It would also be a massive waste of manpower and resources. (Is Congress prepared to add the equivalent of the PNP's billion-peso budget to the CHR?)

Do not fall for what appears to be a systematic effort by the President, legislators in the majority, and by Pro-Duterte apologists to discredit the CHR by confusing the public on this issue, and insisting that the CHR must investigate ALL cases of human rights violations.

A former tv clown and entertainer and now Senator Tito Sotto added his equally low-life argument. Suggesting that all government officials including those heading constitutional bodies (CHR, COA, Comelec,...) should always obey the President's orders and wishes.


When I posted my photo with Chito in my fb wall, a certain Manuel Saludadez jumped in with this accusation.


The man did not provide any proof, even news link. I have a term for this type of attitude -- emotional or arrogant idiocy. If one should make a serious accusation of robbery or plunder ("nakulimbat"), one should present some reliable proof. Otherwise, remove the comment or say "sorry, I do not have proof, I take back my words" or similar statements. If there is humility. There is none.

Meanwhile, I think the Senate should also give a P1,000 2018 budget for many agencies that are favored by the President and the Speaker, like the DOJ. That way, a compromise can be made between the two chambers.

Saturday, August 12, 2017

BWorld 146, Mining and industrialization in Duterte SONA 2017

* This is my article in BusinessWorld on July 27, 2017.


Aside from frequently cussing and cursing or threatening people with state-sponsored murders over his anti-drugs war, President Rodrigo R. Duterte (PRRD) is not exactly known for articulating policies on industrialization. But during the State of the Nation Address (SONA) this year, he was able to coherently explain his dreams for the country.

“That is why I say that it is not enough that we mine this wealth. What is more important is that we convert the raw material thereof into finished products for international and local purposes. That way, it will not only be the few who are the rich but also the poor who are many who will benefit therefrom.

Therefore, I call on our industrialists, investors [and] commercial barons to put up factories and manufacturing establishments right here in the Philippines to process our raw materials into finished products.... if possible, we shall put a stop to the extraction and exportation of our mineral resources to foreign nations for processing abroad and importing them back to the Philippines in the form of consumer goods at prices twice or thrice the value of the original raw materials foreign corporations pay for them.”

This is an understandable concern and aspiration.

And this has been articulated by many other previous administrations and Presidents in the past. For instance, former President Fidel V. Ramos articulated it partly at the Mining Act of 1995. Former President Gloria Arroyo articulated it in Executive Order (EO) 270 in January 2004.

Is the Philippines ready now to undertake this mining-to-industrialization quickly?

In December 2010, the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) produced a paper by Dr. Danilo C. Israel, “National Industrialization in Philippine Mining: Review and Suggestions,” PIDS Discussion Paper Series No. 2010-35 (Revised).

The 53-page paper gives a number of useful data about the sector. It concluded that “judging by experience, the search for national industrialization in the mining sector would be difficult. In the past, the record of the Philippines in this regard was one of failure. This, however, should not prevent the country from attempting once again especially given the importance of industrialization to the growth of the economy.”

It added, “the knowledge base of the country required to pursue the national industrialization strategy is poor. The following studies therefore were suggested: a) value chain analysis for the mining sector and its sub-sectors, including but not limited to the copper, nickel, gold and chromite industries; b) development of community-based small and medium-scale operations in mining including the technology, financial, institutional and other forms of government support that could be provided to them...”

What are the stages of supply chain from mineral extraction to finished products? In one illustration, Dr. Israel identified these nine stages.

(1) Exploration stage, locating the ore to be mined, (2) Development stage, preparation of the mining project before (3) actual Mining and extraction of the ore, (4) Milling and concentration stage, the separation of the desirable minerals in the ore from the undesirable contents, (5) Marketing and transportation, shipping and selling of the desirable minerals to buyers or users, (6) Smelting, the treatment of the desirable minerals to produce impure metal, (7) Refining the impure metal and afterwards built into metal structures by cutting, bending, and assembling, technically referred to as the (8) Semi-fabrication and (9) Fabrication stages.

The country is currently engaged in stages (1) to (5), perhaps up to (6), depending on the metallic products. So the challenge is to find investors, local and foreign who can do stages (6) to (9). And it will not be easy to attract these large investors who need large requirements before they bring in their money and technologies.

Dr. Israel said that there should be a “comparative advantage” for the country to make this possible. This advantage includes the following: (a) location of mineral deposits to be processed; (b) relative factor costs and input prices; (c) availability of processing technology, (d) distance from major markets and the associated transport costs, and (e) the security of supply.

He cited Glance et al. (1992) who said that factors that affect the costs of a prospective processing location and activities are: (a) the cost of meeting environmental regulation which can vary from site to site of operations, (b) market for by products as the profitability of smelting and refining often depends on the ability of processors to sell by-products, and (c) government intervention, which can directly or indirectly distort investment decisions and trade flows.

The last item, government intervention, is very important. Interventions can span from A to Z, from where to explore and mine and where not, how to do it, how much payments in taxes, fees, permits, bonds, mandatory funds and contributions, both local and national.

Seemingly not mentioned in Dr. Israel’s paper is the role of electricity -- cheap, stable supply of electricity that is available 24/7. Intermittent energy like wind-solar will be a disincentive for mining-to-industrialization development because they are heavily dependent on the weather, not on consumer demand.

Plenty of big and reliable base-load plants from coal power have been installed in recent years. This means 24/7 of cheap, stable electricity is assured now and the medium-term.

The industrialization dream has been restated and the energy infrastructure has been set up.


What the President should assure now is the rule of law, stability of policies, that there will be no more Gina Lopez type of government officials whose happiness rests on how many mining companies he/she has suspended and/or closed. His threat of “tax mining to death” during the SONA is a new source of uncertainty that can complicate his dreams of industrialization.
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See also:
BWorld 143, Coal power and economic development, August 09, 2017 
BWorld 144, Individual liberty vs state coercion and taxation, August 10, 2017 

BWorld 145, Energy agenda of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, August 11, 2017

Friday, June 30, 2017

Drugs war 7, Duterte first year, one year of impunity

Today is the first of the six-years term of President Rodrigo Duterte. His administration is known for drugs-drugs-drugs preoccupation and the series of deaths and murders by the thousands of suspected drug pushers and users. One year of official "drugs war" (unofficial drugs war and lots of murders from mid-May to June 29, 2016 when he was still a "President Elect"). One year of impunity.

A disturbing article from interaksyon today.

  
"They were already dead... so why take them to hospital? An analysis of crime data from two of Metro Manila’s five police districts and interviews with doctors, law enforcement officials and victims’ families point to one answer: Police were sending corpses to hospitals to destroy evidence at crime scenes and hide the fact that they were executing drug suspects."

It's a long article with details how police murder victims, often killed pointblank, are still brought to hospital ERs, partly to show that the police "care" for victims of violence.

I think this partly or largely explains why the Mautes, Abus and other organized armed groups have consolidated if not strengthened during the Du30 administration -- the police were busy harassing and killing unarmed suspects so the real criminals, armed and organized, were relatively free to move around.

The AFP should be doing external defense, PNP for internal defense. But since the PNP is busy catching motorcycle drivers with no helmets, killing unarmed drug suspects, the real armed criminals are freer to move around, PNP cannot get them so the AFP is deployed.
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See also:

Thursday, June 01, 2017

BWorld 133, Dissecting Dutertenomics' overspending plan

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last Tuesday.


During the BusinessWorld Economic Forum held last May 19, Budget Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno showed two interesting charts: (1) sustained overspending and borrowings, budget deficit/GDP ratio from -0.9% in 2015 to -2.7% in 2016 then -3.0% from 2017-2022. And yet (2) debt/GDP ratio was expected to decline from 44.8% in 2015 to 40.2% in 2017 and further down to 36.7% in 2022.

Is this possible? That one overspends and over-borrows and yet the debt/GDP ratio will keep falling?

DBM, NEDA, and Malacañang say yes because the projected taxes/GDP ratio will increase via the proposed Tax Reform bill of 2017. Sec. Diokno said in the same forum that “We will continue to guard against underspending, the Waterloo of the previous administration.”

“Underspending” for me should mean that expenditures are lesser than revenues, resulting in a fiscal surplus. When expenditures are larger than revenues but the deficit is only at -1% or below -3% of GDP, that is still overspending, not underspending. So the previous administration did not really underspend, just that it did not go into an uncontrolled spending spree.

Here are relevant numbers about the Philippines’ fiscal position and levels of outstanding public debt, and comparative debt/GDP ratio of seven ASEAN countries (see table). 

The numbers above show three important facts:

One, the average deficit in the previous administration, 2010-2015 was only P185 B/year or -1.8% of GDP, benign and considered as “underspending” by many fiscal hawks, especially when compared with deficit in 2009 (last year of the Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo administration) and 2016 (first year of Duterte administration).

Two, low annual budget deficit and borrowings in the same period means the country’s outstanding debt stock has risen only mildly, with the average of P260 B/year.

Three, partly a result of this, the Philippines’ debt/GDP ratio over the same period showed significant decline, similar to the experience of Myanmar while other neighbors posted deficits, owing to increased borrowing.

Fewer borrowing means less debt service payments for both principal and interest. It was during the same six-year period that Philippines’ GDP growth was 6.2% per year, much higher than Thailand’s 3.7%, Indonesia and Malaysia’s 5.7%, Vietnam’s 6.0%.

In the same BW Economic Forum, the DoTr showed that these projects will be ODA (government loans) funded, not PPP.

1. PNR North Railway (Manila-Clark), construction Q4 2017 -- Q4 2021, P255 B.

2. PNR South Railway (Manila-Bicol), construction Q3 2018 -- 2021, P270 B (originally a PPP).

3. Mega-Manila subway (Phase 1, QC-Taguig), construction Q4 2019 -- 2024, P225 B.

4. Edsa-Central Corridor Bus Rapid Transit BRT (Edsa, Ayala, Ortigas, BGC, NAIA), construction Q1 2019 -- Q1 2021, P38 B.

Other big projects were identified but it wasn’t specified whether these would be funded by official development assistance (ODA) or via Public-Private Partnership (PPP). In December 2016, DoF Secretary Sonny Dominguez already indicated that infrastructure projects under the Duterte administration will avoid PPP whenever possible. And the massive China and Japan ODAs came into the picture.

Then there are tweaks in some major projects, from PPP to ODA. Like the PNR South Railway and the Kaliwa Dam project in Quezon province of Maynilad Water. What would pre-qualified players like San Miguel do with this policy reversal?

The Dutertenomics’ spending plan is detrimental to taxpayers in general and the investment environment in particular, for the following reasons.

1. Bigger annual budget deficit would mean more government loans, higher public debt stock, and will lead to higher taxes now and the future to service those huge loans to be contracted. Soon the P6/liter increase in oil excise tax will not be enough, it will further rise.

2. Massive shift from PPP (private investment) to ODA of major infrastructure projects will result in more loans which mean more public debt, more taxes, and fees in the future.
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See also: 
BWorld 132, Global commodity prices, trade and growth, May 27, 2017

Saturday, May 27, 2017

PDu30 Martial Law in Mindanao

This week, President Duterte who was in Russia when there was a big fight between the Armed Forces of the PH (AFP) and the Maute group of local terrorists, declared Martial Law for the entire Mindanao. I think PDu30 acted with paranoia here as he is too focused on anti-drugs de tokhang war vs ordinary civilians, or China-Russia-love ya affair. When faced with real war, his first instinct is to declare Martial Law.

The PH National Police (PNP) too has become too focused on drugs de tokhang that their intelligence gathering on the real organized, armed criminals has suffered. Below, I am reposting opinions from some friends, posted in their fb walls on dates indicated.


(1)  Jose Antonio Custodio, May 23:

The group that is attacking Marawi City is the Maute group with some reinforcements....it is not the ISIS.... They are taking advantage of the fact that the military and police are distracted by the lack of a coherent policy on internal security. It is as simple as that.

(2) Jojo Garcia, May 23:

Martial law means the suspension of civilian government and the installation of military rule. The functioning of regular civilian courts and sanggunians are explicitly the only exception among civilian offices that should continue under the military government. Martial law also means that Mindanao is now under a military governor or governors, usually the heads of the AFP commands in the island. They will govern the civilian population through AFP general orders to be carried out by soldiers, not by the civilian LGUs whose operation and authority are now effectively suspended if martial law is truly to take effect. Anything less than this will merely amount to a hodgepodge system that would result in a nominal declaration mainly intended for propaganda purposes of showing presidential muscle.

If this is real and not nominal martial law, this is the largest geographical area put under martial law since the superficial lifting of Marcos's martial law in 1981. I hope this is only a nominal presidential show of force and not a real implementation of martial law, since I am not sure if the AFP is capable of running a military government in such a large area without the concommittant human rights violations committed en masse.

In short, sana pang-PR at yabang lang yan, because the last time the AFP implemented martial law as declared by a tyrant, there was no turning back.

(3) Dan Adan, May 25:

Understanding Section 18 of Art. VII of the 1987 Constitution Bit by Bit

The President:

1. Is the Commander-in-Chief of all armed forces of the Philippines.
2. As Commander-in-Chief, may call out such armed forces to prevent or suppress lawless violence whenever it becomes necessary.
3. As Commander-in-Chief, may call out such armed forces to prevent or suppress invasion whenever it becomes necessary.
4. As Commander-in-Chief, may call out such armed forces to prevent or suppress rebellion whenever it becomes necessary.
5. May suspend the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus for a period not exceeding sixty days in case of invasion or rebellion, when the public safety requires it.
6. May place the Philippines or any part thereof under martial law for a period not exceeding sixty days in case of invasion or rebellion, when the public safety requires it.
7. Shall submit a report in person or in writing to the Congress within forty-eight hours from the proclamation of martial law.
8. Shall submit a report in person or in writing to the Congress within forty-eight hours from the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus.

9. The Congress, voting jointly, by a vote of at least a majority of all its Members in regular or special session, may revoke the President's proclamation of martial law.
10. The Congress, voting jointly, by a vote of at least a majority of all its Members in regular or special session, may revoke the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus.
11. The President cannot set aside the congressional revocation of the declaration of martial law.
12. The President cannot set aside the congressional revocation of the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus.
13. The President may ask Congress to extend the proclamation of martial law if the invasion or rebellion shall persist and public safety requires it.
14. The President may ask Congress to extend the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus if the invasion or rebellion shall persist and public safety requires it.
15. The Congress, voting jointly, by a vote of at least a majority of all its members in a regular or special session, may extend the proclamation of martial law for a period to be determined by the Congress, if the invasion or rebellion shall persist and public safety requires it.
16. The Congress, voting jointly, by a vote of at least a majority of all its members in a regular or special session, may extend the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus for a period to be determined by the Congress, if the invasion or rebellion shall persist and public safety requires it.
17. The Congress, if not in session, shall, within twenty-four hours following such proclamation or suspension, convene in accordance with its rules without need of a call.
18. Any citizen may file a case before the Supreme Court questioning the sufficiency of the factual basis of the proclamation of martial law or the extension thereof.
19. Any citizen may file a case before the Supreme Court questioning the sufficiency of the factual basis of the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus or the extension thereof.
20. The Supreme Court may review the sufficiency of the factual basis of the proclamation of martial law or the extension thereof.
21. The Supreme Court may review the sufficiency of the factual basis of the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus or the extension thereof.
22. The Supreme Court must promulgate its decision on the factual basis sufficiency within thirty days from its filing.

A state of martial law does not:

23. Ssuspend the operation of the Constitution.
24. Supplant the functioning of the civil courts.
25. Supplant the functioning of legislative assemblies.
26. Authorize the conferment of jurisdiction on military courts and agencies over civilians where civil courts are able to function.
27. Automatically suspend the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus.

28. The suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall apply only to persons judicially charged for rebellion or offenses inherent in, or directly connected with, invasion.
29. During the suspension of the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus, any person thus arrested or detained shall be judicially charged within three days, otherwise he shall be released.

(4) Bernard Ong, May 25:

GEO-FENCING MARTIAL LAW

After Mindanao Martial Law, the trial balloon for nation-wide Martial Law is now flying high.

Inclusions:
1. Mindanao of course - home of the Durterte este Maute Group
2. Visayas because it is just walking distance from Mindanao
3. Luzon because it is just walking distance from Visayas
4. Anybody named Luzviminda is covered

Exclusions:
1. Taiwan which is just walking distance from Luzon
2. Kalayaan Islands (a.k.a Spratly) because it will anger China
3. Panatag because that has been bartered to China for (scrap) trains
4. Davao because it has already been under authoritarian rule for 30 years
5. Anybody who can walk on water is exempted

For assurance that Martial Law will not be abused by unaccountable men in power, read up on Marcos history. Better yet, go dig some bones at Maa Quarry.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Over-Generalization, Over-Bedanization in the Duterte Cabinet

The term "Over-Generalization" is from my former Political Science teacher in UP Diliman in the 80s, Dr. Seguondo "Doy" Romero. He posted this in his fb wall few days ago:


"My reading is that Duterte is afraid of the military and is appointing the generals to civilian top positions as a feeble attempt to guard against a possible unauthorized military exercise by colonels. The Duterte traitorous embrace of China to the point of frittering away our West Philippine Sea territories, the shift away from the U.S. and international law and organizations, and inexplicable accommodation of the CPP-NPA-NDF and rogues like Misuari, have not endeared Duterte to the military, although God knows he has courted them so assiduously. He has failed to get them on-board the campaign against drugs. What can Duterte offer to the military to make them follow him into another authoritarian regime, but ignominy and the hatred of the Filipino people? Where is the threat of rebellion and invasion, unless he himself fans the Kadamay occupation into a real mass uprising? It is the military in the image of Trillanes and Alejano that Duterte is deathly afraid of. "Over-generalization" gives him a false sense of security...

As far as I can tell, Sec. Lorenzana and Gen Ano have so far acquitted themselves very well as constitutionalist-oriented officers, curbing excesses of immature military officers and civilian officials who blur the boundaries of professionalism. I would not automatically put them as beholden to Duterte incapable of protecting the national interest."

From sir Doy's other friends, they added:

(a) Rob Ocampo: Col Alex Balutan of PCSO, Maj. Jason Aquino of NFA.

(b) Ellen Tordesillas (also my fb friend): A number of retired military officers have already been given ambassadorial posts. One is Red Kapunan to Myanmmar.

A friend complained about sir Doy's term, "Duterte traitorous embrace of China". I asked him what he would describe it, as "Duterte heroic embrace of China"? Pweh.

On another note, the PNP has been a civilian agency for many years and decades now, how come that until now almost all of its Director Generals are from the PH Military Academy (PMA), a military agency? The PMA guys are OA, or with high sense of state entitlement mentality and insecurity, that all high positions in government involving guns and bombs should be allotted only to PMA graduates?

Sir Doy replied that "Military service is also a well-structured and systematic training designed to transform a soldier into a manager and eventually into a statesman..." 

I don't exactly buy this argument. Management of certain sectors require some deep technical skills then add management skills. Rather, retired soldiers have the "scare effect" on the bureaucracy down the line, making them tow the orders of the retired generals without much noise. Even legislators are somehow affected by the "scare effect" of these gun-wielding officers who used to command thousands of gun-and-bomb-wielding soldiers in the past.

Now, aside from "over-generalization", there is also "Over-Bedanization" of the Du30 government.


This is from San Beda's College of Law alone, there could be many other appointments from other colleges or departments of San Beda. I have no further comment about this trend in the Du30 government.

Tuesday, May 09, 2017

Drugs War 6, How PDu30 supporters justify his kill-ambush-poison-bomb policy

I have a fb debate with a physician-friend who supports PDu30's violent style in fighting the drugs war. See again PDu30 language last May 04, 2017: “I told them that once you get involved in drugs I will kill you. I will ambush you, poison you, bomb you, whatever. Steal your wife from you..." 
https://www.rt.com/news/387205-duterte-un-killings-complaint/

I respect my friend's medical views and his healthcare policy views, he is a brilliant physician and surgeon. But his political views related to the drugs war are lousy, so I am blogging our debate.

I argued foremost that with such explicit message above, PDu30 is exhorting certain government armed personnel and the trigger-happy civilians to conduct any or all of these:

a. state-sponsored murders (PNP, other state officers doing it),
b. state-inspired murders (vigilantes, gangs, etc. doing the murders as inspired by Du30), or 
c. state-tolerated murders (PNP knows the murderers and gangs but little or zero investigation as the murders produce the same result as ordered by PDu30. 

Below are some of his comments which I think are commonly uttered by many supporters and followers of PDu30. Then my reply/comments, slightly revised from the original fb exchange.

1. "were you this vocal during the past admins". No, except the Maguindanao massacre. Under the past administrations -- Cory Aquino, FV Ramos, Erap Estrada, Gloria Arroyo and BSA3/Pnoy -- there were no murders by the thousands on drugs war. Most murders in the past administrations were pol. murders, ordinary crimes, etc. Here we are talking about drug-related murders with explicit exhortation by a President to kill-murder-ambush-poison people suspected to be involved in drugs.

2. "are those purported extra-judicial killings (EJKs) indeed EJKs". PNP data showed that from July 01, 2016 to January 24, 2017 anti-drugs campaign, they killed 2,500+ and so this falls under (a) state-sponsored murders. The 5k+ other murders by vigilantes/gangs but some of them are actually policemen, like the incident in Mindoro in October 2016. Two hooded men killed a woman at night, local police were able to catch the murderers within minutes, and they were active duty policemen from another municipality. 


Since there is legal, judicial killing by the state in the form of death penalty via lethal injection, then those drugs-related murders can be considered as EJKs. 

3. "shy away from drugs, surrender or be killed." Singapore, Malaysia, etc. have the same warning and law for people to "shy away from drugs" but their main tool is legal, due process, not kill-ambush-poison-bomb order from a President who has very little or zero respect for due process.
In SG or MY and other countries, the due process itself that can be worse than death penalty for drug offenses. Being put in courts, reported in media, put in prison, brought to the courts again for another hearing, public reporting, execution if proven guilty -- the humiliation can be worse than death. And that scares potential drug offenders.

4. “i cannot condone killing, my business is saving lives, paano ko singilin yung patay?”
and yet why there is no explicit, categorical condemnation of Du30's explicit, categorical pronouncement of kill-ambush-poison-bomb people in drugs? 

5. “whatever compassion you have for these drug users and pushers, you render to the sick who couldn't afford healthcare.” I have no compassion for real pushers and users, but give them due process, to defend themselves if they are indeed guilty or innocent and simply falsely accused. As mentioned above, SG, MY, ID, etc. also have death penalties for drug offenders, similar to PH laws. The difference is that there is due process there; here, little or no due process, short cut kill-ambush-poison-bomb order as pronounced by the President himself.

6. “we're better off sana with Mar?” This as political paranoia. The thread is about Du30's drug war, not Mar, not Marcos, not any other personality or sector. 

7. "mukhang sobrang sacred sa yo ng due process" because (i) many murdered people accused of being drug users/pushers may be innocent, simply falsely accused. Pero tapos na, dedo na sila. And because (ii) that is what SG, MY, ID, etc are doing to control drug crimes without killing thousands. SG with death penalty but due process to drug offenders has low drugs incidence compared to PH with kill-murder-bomb them policy of Du30.

8. "policy criticism is the same as criticizing the person." Wrong. I like PDu30 infra policy on build-build-build, I like his questioning the UN climate drama, etc. My criticism is mainly on his kill-murder-ambush-bomb people in drugs war. Have allowance for those falsely accused as drug users/pushers and not just murder them. Dead people cannot defend themselves.

9. "your choice is the right one for us." Wrong, it's not me 'ordering' the PDu30 government to "go through due process". Far out. It's the existing laws, the criminal code, the various Republic Acts, that are ordering this and other administrations that they should respect these laws.

10. "di naman pwedeng wala tayong presidente." Another pol. paranoia. I did not make any statement, explicit or implicit, that we should have no President, or that Du30 should be replaced without constitutional process or be bombed to eradication, nada. 

Du30 should stay as elected President until 2022 unless the impeachment case against him in Congress prospers. We focus on Du30's kill-ambush-bomb mentality and policy and it should stop. Go the due-process route. Police to get plenty of evidence against suspected drug pushers and users. If evidence is strong, make arrest, bring to jail, go to the courts, wait for court decision. If innocent, set them free. If guilty, death penalty via lethal injection.

From this Guardian article, "Asked in an interview with al-Jazeera about minors caught up in the violence, Duterte said those cases would be investigated but added that police can kill hundreds of civilians without criminal liability." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/17/duterte-says-children-killed-in-philippines-drug-war-are-collateral-damage

This hypothetical case becomes policy pronouncement. "police can kill hundreds of civilians without criminal liability." wow. Implying no need for police training to avoid killing civilians in dealing with criminals. Just kill the criminals, kill the civilians too, no criminal liability, magaleeeng na logic.

For now, nothing can stop PDu30 from his wild and insane remarks on drugs war. Sometime last year he said something like "annihilate 3M drug users... I'll be like Hitler". And last week, he said kill-poison-bomb. Tomorrow he might say "kill-burn-grill-eat their liver". And PDu30 supporters will clap and applaud him.
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See also: