Government and Taxes

Saturday, August 08, 2015

Climate tricks 43, Interview at Sonshine Radio, DZAR 1026

* These are my answers to the guide questions for a live interview on “ECO-Hour episode,” DZAR 1026 Sonshine Radio Manila, 2-3pm today, hosted by Jomel and Rascille Laranas.

Climate alarmism vs climate realities

1. What is your reaction on the research which said that 72% of Filipinos are very concerned about climate change? Are you one of the 72%? Why or Why not?

à Expected. Many Filipinos and people in the world are stilled hoodwinked by the climate alarmism movement.

2. Should climate change or global warming be a cause of alarm among us? Or is the media projecting it in a way that will somehow threaten us or push us to action? Can we say that ‘climate change is nothing but a lie’?

à No.CC and GW are true, they are not lies, but they are cyclical and natura. What is a big lie is the adjective “man-made” and forgetting or deliberately, explicitly removing “nature-made.”

Source: Dr. Roy Spencer, Senate EPW Hearing: “Climate Change: It’s Happened Before”, July 19th 2013.

3. Does it mean that every extreme weather event is NOT caused by climate change? Is the Typhoon Haiyan caused by climate change?

à No. There have been extreme weather in the past – severe cooling, severe warming and droughts. More rains or less rains, more typhoons or less typhoons, they have happened in the past, will happen tomorrow.

4. You have a study about “Man-made Global Warming” in 2009. Can you tell us what is it all about?

a. Climate change (CC) is true. It happened in the past, happening now, will happen in the future. Global warming (GW) is true, happened in the past (RWP, MWP, last century warming) and will happen again in the future. Global cooling is also true, happened in the past, happening now.

b. CC is natural (nature-made, not “man-made”), it is cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-cooling), and has precedents (not “unprecedented”). Like wet-dry season cycle, winter-spring-summer-fall cycle, evaporation-condensation hydrologic cycle,

c. Long-term temperature-CO2 relationship, some studies say temperature leads CO2, other studies say it’s the reverse. Common denominator, there are precedents of warm-cool period, lasting for decades and centuries.

Source: WUWT, Euan Mearns,, Vostok and the 8000 year time lag Dec. 27, 2014

5. Is there a difference between climate alarmism and climate skepticism?

à Yes. Climate alarmism puts heavy emphasis on “man-made” or anthropogenic GW/CC. Climate skepticism recognizes CC but it questions the “anthropogenic” main cause. Nature – the Sun, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), water vapor, clouds, volcanoes, PDO, AMO, etc. -- play much greater roles in planet Earth’s warming or cooling phases. See for instance IPCC model temp. projections vs. actual temperatures.

Source: Dr. Roy Spencer, http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/still-epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-measurements-running-5-year-means/

6. If we read that the glaciers are melting in the Arctic region due to global warming, should it really cause an alarm?

à No. Ice and glaciers in the Arctic, in Greenland (and Antarctica) are melting-growing, every year. Part of natural cycle.

Source:, https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

7. What can you say about groups pushing for the mitigation of climate change as part of the 17 new sustainable development goals?

à Mainly the huge money involved. See portions of my presentation at Dr. Alvin Ang’s graduate class on Public Finance, Ateneo de Manila University, Quezon City, 28 January 2015, entitled “Climate Money: Wastes, Distortions and Scientific Dishonesty Behind It.”

Plus the huge perks – frequent climate junkets around the world, participants are burning huge volume of fossil fuels due to their frequent jet sets. Plus ego tripping, they can dictate to the rest of us what energy source we can use, what we cannot.

8. How should we view climate change and global warming as Filipinos? Do you think it is okay for politicians to ride on this environmental issue as part of their political agenda?

à CC and GW are natural (nature-made, not man-made) and cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-cooling…). Politicians, and many NGOs and media leaders, academics, etc. – ALL of them ride the alarmism bandwagon.

9. On Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth, is it mere science fiction? About the Pope’s ‘Laudato Si’ – is he just being ‘influenced’ to believe on climate alarmism?

à Al Gore’s something like 10% truth, 90% fiction.

The Pope’s, advising people to take care of the planet is good. Advising them to demonize fossil fuels and CO2 is wrong. The Pope and his entourage is among the heavy users of fossil fuels, he travels a lot by jumbo jets, and those jets do not fly on water but on fossil fuel.

10. According to some groups, ‘coal is the demon incarnate’ for it causes unprecedented increase in greenhouse gases. What is your take on this?

à They keep miseducating and fooling the public. If there are no coal power plants in Luzon at this moment, most likely people will be using those noisy gensets that run on fossil fuel diesel, or using candles, because of frequent brown outs.

Existing major power plants in Luzon, early 2014. Coal is 4,531 MW, followed by big hydro, 2,445 MW, nat gas 2,861 MW.

Source: http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2015/01/energy-32-is-ph-power-supply-ready-for.html

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Climate Tricks 41, CO2 Leads Temperature, or Vice Versa?, June 14, 2015

Climate Tricks 42, SDGs and Jeffrey Sachs, oil and warming planet, August 05, 2015

BWorld 14, OFWs, MERS-CoV and the DFA

* This is my article yesterday in BusinessWorld Weekender.
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OFWs, MERS-CoV, the DFA, and helpful people

AMONG the infectious diseases that have terrified people around the world since last year was the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Corona Virus (MERS-CoV). It started in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and has killed many people there in 2014, and recently the disease has reached South Korea and killed some 36 people, infected nearly 200 others, and resulted in a lockdown and isolation of several small villages and hospitals with confirmed patients.

Among the people who succumbed to the MERS-CoV infection and died were Filipino health workers like nurses in frontline emergency cases in Saudi hospitals.

One of those Filipino nurses who died was my sister-in-law, Gemma B. Oplas, wife of my younger brother, Bonifacio S. Oplas. Gemma was working as a nurse at the emergency department of the Saudi government-owned hospital, King Fahad Medical Center (KFMC), in Riyadh. She was taking care of some MERS patients in the hospital until she herself was infected. Death was fast, only six and a half days from the time she was confined in the same hospital where she was working, until her death on May 6 last year.

Several issues came out of her case, implying several lessons that other health OFWs may take note.

1 Non-transparency by the hospital. Initially, KFMC imposed a news blackout sometime April-May 2014. No one knew the extent of infections and deaths in the hospital alone. The Philippine Embassy did not even know some of these things until they learned from the Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila when my brother applied for a rush passport. The information blackout by the hospital showed he severity of the problem, similar to the Chinese government’s news blackout when SARS spread and killed several people.

2 The DFA’s assistance. The Consular Office acted swiftly when my brother requested for a rush passport so he could fly to Riyadh and see his wife. But death was fast, he did not fly anymore, knowing that the DOH Quarantine would hold and isolate him for at least two weeks, the normal incubation period of MERS, when he returned.

3 Three months’ body freezing. Since it was death from a highly infectious disease, the body would be put in a freezer for 2-3 months before it can be transported back home. My brother would have preferred cremation and bringing home the ashes, but cremation is not allowed in KSA.

4 Airline paranoia. Around mid-August 2014, KFMC and the Saudi Ministry of Health decided it was safe to send home Gemma’s body via Cathay Pacific cargo (Riyadh-HK-Manila route). Gemma’s body was supposed to arrive in Manila on August 17, before being transported to Bacolod City. A belated correspondence from Cathay Pacific the day before transporting the body said the Hong Kong government and the airline would require an “import permit.”

Import permit for the dead? Cathay said this permit should come from the Department of Health, to ascertain the safety in bringing home the body of a person who died of an infectious disease. I went to the department’s Bureau of Quarantine (BoQ), talked to the director who said that it is not their duty or responsibility to give a permit for incoming deceased people. They can give permit for outgoing deceased bodies.

I wrote to a Cathay officer and asked what exactly is the “import permit” that they require and from what agency it should come from. They replied,

“...If not cremated, death Certificate + Undertakers Certificate. If death caused by communicable disease, admittance allowed only when the remains is [sic] cremated or properly embalmed and enclosed in hermetically sealed coffin.”

So their earlier requirement of an “import permit” was irrelevant as the HK government wanted a different set of requirements.

5 Quick burial, avoid further health stigma. Saudia Air transported Gemma’s body, Riyadh-Manila direct last September 04, 2014, or almost four months after she died. Then PAL cargo brought the body to Bacolod that same day. The plane landed around 6pm, the coffin was brought to a cemetery in Bacolod, short mass, the coffin was not opened, no public viewing, then buried around 8pm.

6 Getting the benefit package, a long process. Around July or August 2014, KFMC deposited the hospital’s benefit package for Gemma, equivalent to three years’ salary, plus end of service award, to Al Rajhi Bank in Riyadh.

At first, my brother sent a special power of attorney (SPA) to Gemma’s close friend, fellow hospital co-worker Magda, who would then transfer the amount to the joint account of my brother and their only child, Lois, in Bacolod City. The SPA went through various official routes -- DFA, notary public, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) embassy in Manila, then mailed to Riyadh.

After several weeks, the feedback was that the Saudi bank said they would not honor that SPA, because according to KSA customs, recipients of Gemma’s benefit package should not only be the legal and married family of Gemma but also her original family, meaning signatories should include her parents and siblings.

Sensing that even this may create new questions from the Riyadh bank and other Saudi government agencies, the Philippine embassy offered to be the recipient of the SPA, so in case of any problems, this would be handled as a government-to-government matter.

7 Al Rajhi Bank’s delaying moves. After submitting all the new requirements to the bank, the Philippine embassy wrote and called up the bank several times to get the benefit package. But the bank did not respond to their letters or take their phone calls. And when a staff member of the embassy visited the bank, the bank manager would not even entertain him.

The bank’s website says it cares for its customers and gives them instant personal finance, without the customers even having to wait for 15 minutes. So why would the benefit package for a dead person be pending for many months?

There is not a single email address of any of the bank’s officers. I blogged about the bank and also tweeted them, and still no reply.

8 Secretary Albert F. del Rosario’s office acted. First, I wrote to Ambassador Ezzedin H. Tago in Riyadh to do something about this case, but got no reply. Then I wrote to DFA Undersecretary Jesus I. Yabes of Migrant Workers’ Affairs, and no reply too. My brother emailed the DFA Secretary, then I followed up with some friends at the department. The Office of the Secretary acted swiftly. They sent a formal reply to my brother, saying they had instructed the Philippine embassy in Riyadh to speed up this case.

Within a week or two, the embassy texted my brother saying they had the check, since the bank had finally released the package, which was then sent to the DFA’s main office. After more than three weeks, going through regular processes, the DFA finally deposited the fund in the joint account of my brother and his daughter.

Problem no. 1, getting the body back home to Negros Occidental, was finally solved after almost four months.

Problem no. 2, having the benefit package delivered to the family of the deceased, happened after almost 15 months. The main cause of the delay was the bank in Riyadh.

My brother and I would like to thank the DFA for being a helpful agency in this case. From rushing his passport (via Consular Office) to assisting in the body’s return (via the department’s Office on Migrant Workers’ Affairs) to getting the benefit package (via the Philippine embassy in Riyadh and the Office of the Secretary). People who at once criticize the DFA for its supposed “inaction” on their requests may need to observe restraint and learn the formal processes whenever possible.

Finally, there are helpful people around. I met this man, Croox, in June last year, who has already retired from the DFA. Receiving his monthly pension but not doing much at home, he would frequently return to his previous office and help people anyway he can. For free. A jolly and cheerful guy, he helped us secure certain government documents, including a notarized copy by the Saudi Embassy, for the SPA. Croox would spend his own money to go to the DFA and the Saudi embassy to follow up papers.
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BWorld 11, China's stockmarket and central planning, July 18, 2015

BWorld 12, Investments, APEC and economic liberalization, July 25, 2015

BWorld 13, SONA's liberalism, five years after, July 28, 2015

OFW Death, PH Embassy in Riyadh and Al Rajhi Bank, April 12, 2015

Friday, August 07, 2015

Election PH 15, Who's the least welfarist?

Yesterday during the Ateneo Eagle Watch briefing, the third speaker was Rappler's Maritess Danguilan-Vitug. Her talk was about "Scenarios for 2016."

She talked mainly about the four leading candidates. I mix her 2 slides in one image here, to save space.

Personally, I can support Sen. Grace Poe's candidacy as her being a "newbie" or "inexperienced" means being inexperienced in heavy political populism and welfarism, or corrupting the minds of the public that they can be less responsible about their lives, anyway government will do many things for them, from education and books for the poor, healthcare and medicines for the poor, to housing and relocation for the poor, to cash transfer and condoms for the poor, to iPad and cars for the poor, soon?

Mar Roxas used to be free market-leaning, then he became populist as he was getting desperate in 2009 for his 2010 Presidential ambition. How he can go back to being market-friendly is a big question mark. But at least he's not involved in large-scale corruption and robbery scandals. But his wife, ahh.... no comment.

Jojo Binay, definitely corrupt, can surpass Marcos robbery if he becomes President. From a bright, poor human rights lawyer until February 1986, he was appointed by former President Cory as OIC Mayor of Makati in March 1986, he and his family taught that Makati City is their political kingdom forever. They got very rich, super rich, and they are not known for any fair business acumen, just being in dirty politics.

Duterte, at one time I thought that he is mentally sick because the words "Patayin", "barilin","kill", were too frequent in his mouth. I thought that only very violent minds can say those things, repeatedly, in national media, and not feeling sorry about it. I can understand the impatience of many Filipinos that there are too many rotten eggs in government, both local and national, both civilian and armed, including the businessmen they are protecting. But resorting to outright murders, state-sponsored murders, is not the way to address it.

Ok, who's the least welfarist, least enamored to BIG government, big and many taxes and borrowings, more regulations and permits, of these 4 or more Presidential candidates?

Hard to answer that. But maybe Grace Poe and Mar Roxas, maybe. But definitely not Binay.
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Election 11, Dr. Doy Romero on Binay, Roxas and Grace Poe, June 01, 2015

Election 12, JV Bautista and Toilet Politics, June 05, 2015

Election 13, Bernard Ong's Analysis, June 21, 2015

Election 14, The Middle Earth of PH Politics, by Doy Romero, June 24, 2015

PH economic competitiveness, the Ateneo Eagle Watch briefing

Yesterday, I attended the Ateneo Eagle Watch briefing, held at the Ateneo Rockwell campus in Makati. The three speakers were Dr. Joseph Lim, "The State of the Economy: What were said and not said in the SONA"; Dr. Alvin Ang, "Economic Forecasts: 2015 Updates and Outlook", and Maritess Danguilan-Vitug of Rappler, "Scenarios for 2016." Dr. Lim and Alvin are professors at the Ateneo Economics Department, both are my friends too.

Among the slides presented by Dr. Lim.

He borrowed some of the presentations made at ADB just two days earlier, during its IPAG meeting. From the above table, a summary of PH situation in the WEF's Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) annual reports.

In terms of economic resilience -- from world fiscal and financial shocks. Slide he borrowed from BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo.

Dr. Lim argued that while PH poverty incidence has been declining, in 2014 it rose. This was not mentioned by the President in his last State of the Nation Address (SONA).

This is from Alvin's presentation. Beautiful charts. EU and Japan growth are wobbly and sometimes bordering on recession; US barely growing, but our OFW remittances still rising (though not as fast as before). Growth in the rest of Asia, Middle East keep the high demand for Filipino labor.

The business process outsourcing (BPO) rally maintains. As Europe, US, Canada, etc. become more bureaucratic in their labor policies, their cost of labor keeps rising, investors there will demand more Filipino labor in Philippine soil.

The US seems able to sustain a 2 percent average growth. The huge dip in 2008-2009 economic contraction is very visible.

Summary of the Ateneo Econ's forecast for the rest of 2015. These are realistic numbers, Alvin, good. At 1-1.5% annual interest rate of government borrowings (Treasury-bill rates), these are low, compared to the previous 7-10% a decade or so ago. Many people are still angry at these figures, they just complain and complain.

Dr. Lim was left-leaning before while he was still teaching at UP. Until now somehow :-). So during the open forum, I commented and argued that more than "good governance", perhaps we should be asking for "less governance" because as some of his slides showed, growth was faster in sectors and sub-sectors where there are no huge departments overseeing, like the ICT, whereas in agri where we have DA, DAR, NFA, etc., growth was slower. And even socialist Vietnam is cutting personal income tax to around 20 percent next year, PH remains to have the highest personal income tax at 32%. Vietnam also abolished restrictions to foreign investments, up to 100% foreign ownership is allowed, except in a few sectors like banking.

He replied that me being a UPSE alumni, goes with the sentiment of many faculty members there of advocating the less government philosophy which is dangerous. Do I want no government irrigation projects, farm subsidies, etc.? The case of Japan, S. Korea industrialization were government-led.

Limited time for Q&A as usual, I did not make a follow up comment on the floor as there were other hands raised to ask questions, make comments. Of course I do not advocate zero governance.sic subsidies like agri infra (rural roads, irrigation, electrification, etc.) should continue but NFA subsidies (buy high and sell low, rice trade protectionism, etc.), endless, no time table forced land redistribution and DAR itself should discontinue.

Growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for poverty alleviation. Despite what other people who only complain and complain, we should aspire for faster growth. And more investments, local and foreign. It leads to more job creation, more poverty alleviation.

Thanks again to Dean Nandy Aldaba for the invite to that great forum.

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See also:
Market Failure vs. Government Failure, Part 5, June 16, 2015
Investment liberalization, trends and lessons, July 26, 2015
BWorld 13, SONA's liberalism, five years after, July 28, 2015

Thursday, August 06, 2015

Investment Liberalization 2, G7 and East Asia economies

Mobility of investments and capital across islands, countries and continents is part of human nature. A country or island for instance with plenty of beautiful white sand beaches will naturally attract investors who will put up modern resorts and hotels, that will attract more visitors from other countries, giving lots of jobs and other business opportunities to the locals and new migrants.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released in late June 2015 its World Investment Report (WIR) 2015. The annex tables of that report are found here.

My sister's auditing firm published the 2nd issue of its monthly Business and Economic Update last month. Among the contents of that report are the tables below, original global data are taken from the WIR 2015.

Here, it shows that from 2012-2014, there was consistent net outﬂows of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the G7 except UK and partly, Canada. Then in Hong Kong, Taiwan, S. Korea and Malaysia.

http://alasoplascpas.com/publication-economic-02-Net-Inflows-of-FDI.php

Numbers below show the ratio of FDIs over gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) or simply domestic investments. It is interesting to see how Germany and Japan have very small share of FDIs. This somehow gives an idea of their investment protectionism policies.

The most open economies to global trade and investments, Hong Kong and Singapore, have the highest FDI share to total national investments. And an FDI share of 2.5 to 14 percent seems to be the average, possibly a healthy mixture, including the 10.5 percent for the Philippines.

Until 2012, the bulk of FDIs in the PH came from the US, HK and Japan. By 2013 until mid-2014, capital from the US withrew, from HK declined significantly, from Japan retained, and a surge of FDIs from British Virgin Island.

http://alasoplascpas.com/publication-economic-02-FDI...

In portfolio investments like the stock markets, Japan, China, India and Hong Kong received significant inflows while many in the ASEAN experienced net outflows overall except Vietnam.

In merchandise exports (X) as a share of their GDP, Hong Kong and Singapore are run-away leaders, followed by Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. In non-merchandise, services exports like tourism receipts, Macao is a clear leader because of its huge gaming and casino facilities.

Personal remittances by their nationals who are working abroad, India, China and the Philippines (and Mexico) are the world leaders. The Philippines is #1 in the ASEAN.

http://alasoplascpas.com/publication-economic-02-Global...

Meanwhile, from another source, these numbers are interesting. Until 2012, the US was a major source of FDIs in the ASEAN. By 2013, capital from the US declined significantly. Investments from Japan, intra-ASEAN, UK and Netherlands are big.

Source: ASEAN Investment Report 2013-2014, http://www.asean.org/.../asean-unctad-launches-asean...

Favorite destination of FDIs in the ASEAN are the services and manufacturing sectors. Data also from the ASEAN IR 2013-2014.

The above numbers and figures are additional reminders that the Philippines need to amend its Constitution and remove protectionist provisions that restrict or limit the entry of foreign investments in some sectors, while outrightly banning/prohibiting FDIs in other sectors.

It is not wise that government dictates that these areas are only for local investors and those areas, foreign investors can be allowed. Investments, local or foreign, automatically creates local jobs. If Filipino workers are prevented from being hired by foreign investors here because the latter are restricted or banned on certain sectors, then many Filipino workers are hired by foreign investors in foreign lands.
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See also:
Free Trade 35: EU-FNF Forum on 'FDI Engine for Job Growth', May 15, 2014
BWorld 12, Investments, APEC and economic liberalization, July 25, 2015
Investment liberalization, trends and lessons, July 26, 2015

Wednesday, August 05, 2015

Climate Tricks 42, SDGs and Jeffrey Sachs, oil and warming planet

Yesterday, Dr. Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University and a UN Consultant on Sustainable Development, spoke at Intercon Hotel in Makati, mainly to prod more climate alarmism and "end fossil fuel" use to save the planet. (Photo from Jhezza P.)

It was the launching of the PH's sustainable development solutions network (SDSN), mainly sponsored by NEDA, DENR and USAID, plus about 8 other minor co-sponsors. He said that Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2015 is the official successor of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, 1990-2015). The UN is not satisfied with the FCCC, it wants redundancy in spreading global ecological central planning.

I went there, not as one of the SDSN members, but to hear Jeffrey Sachs. I sat at the table reserved for UPSE Alumni Association (UPSEAA) officers and members. From left: Ronee Juanengo, current President of UPSEAA, Louie Mendoza, my batchmate in SE undergrad and PDE 1998, now a Commissioner at Tariff Commission (TC), standing behind me is Ernie Albano, immediate Past President of UPSEAA and another Commissioner at TC, me, _____, Tito Rodriguez, Bobby Estebanlar, and Tony Pio de Roda.

Sachs flew from the US to the PH on a plane flying on water, not fossil fuel. From the airport to his hotel, he took a solar car, not an SUV or luxury car running on fossil fuel. Sarcs :-)

Millennium DGs (MDGs) are more gut issues like healthcare, education, etc.

Sustainable DGs (SDGs) are more hypocritical. Fossil fuel use means sustainable life. Can people ride water- or solar-powered jumbo jets from the US or Europe to Manila so they can lambast fossil fuel without any inkling of double-talk?

One great fear of SDGs guru like Jeff Sachs has come once again -- cheap fossil fuels like oil. Less people will ride cows and horses, they will be riding cars and motorcycles. Less people will use charcoal and firewood for cooking (hence, more trees will be saved), they will use cheaper LPGs. Isn't that wonderful?

Meanwhile, here are some relevant climate data.

(1) Latest global air temperature data, lower troposphere, as of end-July 2015. Global temp. anomaly (or deviation from the average temp, 1979-2015) was 0.18 C. El Nino in the tropics was compensated by strong cooling in the southern hemisphere last month.

Source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/.../uah-v6-0-global.../

(2) "Mann-made" warming by Dr. Michael Mann (above) showing "unprecedented" GW for the past 1,000 years, vs. real and actual warming-cooling cycle for the past 2,000 years.

Source: NTZ, http://notrickszone.com/2015/08/02/michael-mann-blemishes-himself-in-austria-german-scientists-can-no-longer-be-taken-seriously/#sthash.LFfejp3f.dpbs

(3) Arctic, above, and Antarctic, below, sea ice extent, 1980s to 2015.

It is true that Arctic (and Antarctic) ice is melting, but it is also true that Arctic (and Antarctic) ice is growing, each year, no exception. Part of natural sea ice melting-growing cycle yearly, for millions of years.

Source: WUWT, http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

(4) Sea ice anomaly or deviation from the average, Northern and Southern hemisphere, 1979-2015.

(same source as above)

(5) El Nino 2014-2015, above, and El Nino - La Nina cycles, 1950-2015, Nino region 3.4, central Pacific Ocean.

It is true that there is a strong El Nino on-going now, may approach the big El Nino in 1998. But it is part of the natural or "nature-made" warming-cooling cycles in the biggest ocean in the planet.

Source: WUWT, http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso/

Back to Jeffrey Sachs. Based on the PH Bureau of Immigration, Philippine Coast Guard, Ports Authority and Land Transportation Office (LTO) records, Mr. Sachs came to Manila not via oil-fueled airplane but this... (h/t Jose C.)

And from the port of Manila, he was transported to his hotel in Makati not via an oil-hungry SUV but this... :-)

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Climate Tricks 41, CO2 Leads Temperature, or Vice Versa?, June 14, 2015

Monday, August 03, 2015

Energy Econ 40, DOE Circular No. DC2015-06-0008

The Department of Energy (DOE) issued Circular No. DC2015-06-0008, Mandating All Distribution Utilities to undergo CSP) in securing PSA, dated June 11, 2015 and signed by resigned DOE Sec. Carlos Jericho "Icot" Petilla.

So all Distribution Utilities (DUs) in the country would now have to go through competitive bidding in securing their power supply contracts, abandon the old and existing bilateral supply contracts. A third person/party shall also be appointed by the DOE/ERC, and NEA to facilitate the bidding process.

I think it is a reaction to (a) complaints of "sweetheart deals" between some DUs and electric coops like Meralco, and some power generation companies. and (b) DUs which have their own power generating plants too, making the other gencos that are not affiliated or controlled by the DUs at a disadvantage. Say Meralco or Batangas Electric Coop or Cagayan Electric Coop also own a big power plant/s. That DU will naturally prioritize getting power from its own genco even if the price is higher than the other independent power producers (IPPs).. And that means higher electricity prices for the pubic but greater revenues/profit for the DU + genco partner.

Here is an example, I took from the DOE website. I am not sure if Isabela Power Corp. is also owned or affiliated with Isabela Electric Cooperative.

Thus, the DOE attempts to protect the public from further high electricity prices. But the DUs can also reason out that RA 9513 or the RE Act of 2008 also forces them to buy from more expensive renewables with guaranteed prices via feed in tariff (FIT). So why would the DOE now prevent them from prioritizing buying from their partner or DU-owned power plant/s?

That is why I do not support the RE act and the mandatory, forcible dispatch by the NGCP of power from new renewables like wind and solar because it sets a precedent, forcing DUs to buy from expensive power sources.

Although these suspicions have some valid grounds, the main problem of course is the geographical monopoly power of DUs and electric coops. Electricity distribution is among the "public utilities" that the PH Constitution says should be in the hands of majority or fully Filipino hands and capital. By virtue of their being geographical monopolies via the Constitution and Congressional franchise law, abuse of power can happen anytime. Hence, another reason why the PH constitution should be amended to break this type of monopolies. Government should get out creating monopolies regardless of bleeding heart arguments.

Meanwhile, the Energy Policy and Development Program (EPDP) will hold this forum on Friday, August 7.

The speakers will be DOE OIC Secretary Zenaida Y. Monsada, Prof. Raul V. Fabella and Prof. Ruperto P. Alonzo of the UP School of Economics (UPSE). OIC Secretary Monsada will talk about the above Circular while Profs. Fabella and Alonzo will discuss broad elements of a market-based policy on power supply contracting by DUs. Then a panel of reactors from the private sector.

It is a by-invite forum only, not posted in the EPDP website. I will attend.

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Energy Econ 37, More on Wind Power in Germany, June 07 2015

Energy Econ 38, Solar Power in Germany and in Cadiz City, Negros Occidental, June 15, 2015

Energy Econ 39, the UPSE-Ayala forum on the PH power sector, July 25, 2015

Sunday, August 02, 2015

IPR and Medicines 36, On patent protection, data exclusivity and TPP

There was a DOH Advisory Council on the Implementation of RA 9502 (Cheaper Medicines Act of 2008) last April 20, 2015 that I was not able to attend. The Secretariat failed to invite me, but at least they sent me the minutes of the meeting, Among the speakers that day was Atty. Allan Gepte of the Intellectual Property Office (IPO), DTI and he was asked to give updates about the US (and PH?) Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the European FTA (EFTA). He said that he was not aware of any current (PH-) USFTA negotiations and there are talks among EFTA countries.

He gave some updates about IP concerns in the country instead, like the DTI-IPO-DOH public consultation on IP issues, with some NGOs last March 31, 2015. The topics covered data protection patent term extensions. I was not there in that meeting.

But I have attended the same DTI-IPO-DOH meeting last June 04, 2015 at the DTI International building. It was chaired by DTI Assistant Sec Rodolfo, IPO Dep. Allan Gepte, and DOH-NCPAM Doc Meme Guerrero. I learned about the meeting because three days ahead, June 01, there was another anti-TPP, anti-IPR forum at PRRM, QC, sponsored by IDEALS, MAG, AGAP and CHAT, and the speaker was Dr. Burku Kilik of Public Citizens, an NGO in the US. Then there was a belated invite to attend the March 31 meeting at the DTI.

I think it was a limited consultation because only very few NGOs were there, led perhaps by the Focus on the Global South (FGS) leader, Joseph Purugganan, plus the Fair Trade Alliance, they are campaigning against strong IPR protection in the non-existent EU-PH FTA or non-existent PH membership in the TPP.

At the DTI consultation (a few CHAT members were also there, also Dave Escalona of Unilab), I commented that the PH is not even among the invited members of the TPP (only 4 of 10 ASEAN countries were invited to the TPP) and yet there are a number of noise against those proposed FTAs the issue of IPR.

Assuming for the sake of arguments that (1) there is a TPP Agreement already today or tomorrow, (2) the PH is a member of TPPA, and (3) all those "dreaded data exclusivity", etc. provisions are implemented -- then they will affect only a few, newly-invented medicines and not the 90-99% of off-patent, useful generic medicines in the WHO and DOH essential medicines list (EML). I think anti-IPR campaigners are not aware of this, perhaps they think that any extended regulatory data protection (RDP) and patent protection on innovator drugs also apply to off-patent, generic drugs. Far out, man.

I posted the above comments at the AC email loop. Atty. Joey Ochave, SVP of Unilab and a friend since the 80s in UP Diliman, replied to my comments. He said that

"data exclusivity can apply to off-patent, or even non-patented, drugs. Patent protection is different from data exclusivity but both seek to prevent the entry of generic competition and preserve the monopoly status of the originator. The only difference is patent protection is protected by TRIPs while data exclusivity is TRIPS Plus. Data exclusivity is NOT required by WTO. This is why the US tries to insert it in bilateral or multilateral trade agreements."

I thanked Joey for his comments. These are legal matters, outside my usual cup of coffee so I yield to his explanation.

For now, the PH government through DTI Sec. Domingo has officially signified its intention to join the TPP in the next round of membership expansion. I support this move, I believe that it is not possible for the PH to have a bilateral FTA with the US or even Canada, and the US will remain to be the biggest, most innovative economy in the planet for the next decade or two. The only way to have an FTA with them is through the TPP.

If what Joey mentioned that data exclusivity is to "prevent the entry of generic competition", then it will have a rough sailing in the PH as access to generics is both a health and emotional issue here and in many other countries.

Things like this, the AC can discuss as RA 9502 is first and foremost, about IPC amendment and price regulation is just an add-on or after-thought chapter in the law. I have attended 2 fora already about TPP and IPR involving 2 foreign speakers who are generally anti-IPR and both facilitated by IDEALS and CHAT. The first was a lady speaker from France, the 2nd was another lady speaker from the US, from Global Citizen. The 2 fora did not have legal minds as discussants after the presentation.

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IPR and Medicines 33, Geneva Network's Forum in Singapore, May 22, 2015

IPR and Medicines 34, Another Forum on TPP and IP, Manila, May 27, 2015

IPR and Medicines 35, New paper from Geneva Network, July 17, 2015

IPR and Innovation 22, The USTR 301 Report 2015 and the Philippines, July 10, 2015

IPR and Innovation 23, Letter to WIPO by 85 think tank leaders from 51 countries, July 21, 2015

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