BWorld 652, The legal case of the late Doc Iggy

Oct. 31, 2023
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/10/31/554570/the-legal-case-of-the-late-doc-iggy/

“I sincerely believe that by our awareness we will be able to protect our beloved profession better against predators and opportunists who are already using my case as a legal precedent to file criminal cases for any complication arising from any of our treatment or surgery. It is time we doctors heal and protect ourselves too, but eventually for the good of our patients.” — Benigno “Doc Iggy” Agbayani, Jr. in “An open letter to my fellow Filipino doctors and friends,” Sept. 16, 2023.

This piece will discuss two important issues: a legal uncertainty on the heads of Filipino surgeons in the practice of their profession and energy complications of the war in the Middle East.

DOC IGGY AGBAYANI CASE

Doc Iggy passed away on Oct. 5, 2023 at the Manila City Jail while doing two things: helping hundreds of fellow inmates in their medical and social needs and fighting for justice about his case and by extension the medical community.

Two important statements have been issued recently, one from the Philippine Orthopaedic Association, Inc., a surgical specialty society recognized by the Philippine College of Surgeons and the Philippine Medical Association in “Letter of support for the late Dr. Benigno ‘Iggy’ Agbayani, Jr.” on Oct. 26.

The group said: “We, the board of trustees of the Philippine Orthopedic Association, express our unwavering support for the appeal for review of the case of the late Dr. Benigno A. Agbayani, Jr. by his friends and family. Dr. Agbayani was an experienced and dedicated orthopedic surgeon who was incarcerated for an apparent common complication associated with a surgical procedure. Unfortunately, he suffered a major heart attack and passed on while in prison.

We strongly support the request for clarification regarding the legal issues related to his incarceration. We firmly believe that this intervention is necessary to address the growing concerns among medical practitioners who fear a similar fate in the future.”

The second statement came from the Phi Kappa Mu (PKM) fraternity, an all-doctor students and professionals from the University of the Philippines College of Medicine in “Call to justice for the late Dr. Benigno Agbayani, Jr.: Safeguarding the nobility of the medical profession” on Oct. 29.

The PKM fraternity said: “We earnestly appeal for justice in the case of the late Dr. Benigno Agbayani, Jr., a loyal son of the Phi Kappa Mu, a highly trained and seasoned orthopedic surgeon wrongly accused and convicted of reckless imprudence resulting in serious physical injuries. The judicial proceeding at the Metropolitan Trial Court and the appeal process that followed have been marred by disregard for due process, procedural errors and misapplication of rules, leading to a void judgment.”

I personally know Doc Iggy. He was two years younger than me in UP and he was very intelligent — a graduate of the Philippine Science High School and BS Biology from UP Diliman, had a medical degree from the UP College of Medicine and an internship from the UP Philippine General Hospital. And he was very patriotic: many UP alumni, especially UPCM graduates went to rich countries to practice their profession while Doc Iggy stayed put and treated and healed so many patients here.

To improve healthcare in the country, the supply of proficient, highly trained health professionals should increase, not decrease. Then the professional cost of healthcare will stabilize. It’s simple and basic health economics. The lawyers and other parties who persecuted Doc Iggy for about 16 years could be thinking otherwise: improve healthcare in the country by reducing the number of proficient health professionals via legal harassment and imprisonment. Lousy minds.

See my column about the man, “Revisiting the lockdown, the role of CDC PH and Doc Iggy Agbayani” (Oct. 10), then this recent report in BusinessWorld, “Philippine ranking in WJP Rule of Law Index falls for fifth straight year” (Oct. 25).

WJP RULE OF LAW INDEX

The WJP’s Rule of Law index annual report is a good indicator of a country’s justice system. The index is derived from eight factors — constraints on government powers, the absence of corruption, an open government, fundamental rights, order and security, regulatory enforcement, civil and criminal justice. The 2023 report involved more than 149,000 households surveyed and 3,400 legal practitioners and experts in 142 countries and jurisdictions.

There was a deterioration in the Philippine ranking from 51st out of 102 countries in the 2015 report to 100th out of 142 in the 2023 report. It was worse than socialist China and Vietnam. Two factors that pulled the country down were fundamental rights (including due process of the law and rights of the accused) and criminal Justice (including “criminal system is impartial,” “criminal system is free of improper government influence”). See Table 1.

What happened to Doc Iggy should be a reflection of the poor justice system in the country. Some business and professional sectors in the country could be salivating at the big money that can come out of legal uncertainties on the heads of Filipino surgeons. The cost of surgery and other medical services could increase, which will be passed on to patients and their families. This is bad health economics. The government — the Judiciary, Legislature and Executive — should look into this and the case of Doc Iggy as a precedent.

MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT

The renewed Middle East conflict, particularly the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Palestine, is largely caused by two factors: the existence of non-Muslim Israel in the Middle East which many Palestinians and Iran do not recognize, and the endless war for oil by the US and many NATO countries.

I construct this table below showing oil production in thousand barrels per day (bpd), oil reserves, oil reserves/production (R/P) ratio or the number of years before the reserves will be depleted assuming current production (for domestic use and exports) continues. Then gas production in billion cubic meters (cu.m.) and gas R/P ratio.

In terms of oil reserves, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Yemen, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are the largest in the Middle East. In gas reserves, the largest are Iran and Qatar (Table 2).

The US has big oil reserves too but because it has huge domestic demand, its R/P ratio shows it can be depleted in just 11 years so they must import more oil from other countries and invade or occupy other oil-rich countries. Hence the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and occupation of oil- and gas-rich regions of Syria since 2014. Syria had a population of 21.4 million in 2010. No population data are available after that.

Iran is rich both in oil and gas. Despite decades of economic sanctions against it by the West, Iran has extra resources to arm itself and many militant movements in the region — Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militias in Iraq, among other groups.

To achieve peace in the Middle East and help stabilize global energy trade, I think one of the long-term solutions is for the US military to step back and for US diplomacy to step up. The Abraham Accords of peace agreements — Israel-UAE, Israel-Bahrain, Israel-Morocco, Israel-Sudan – initiated by Trump are good projects that should be continued.
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See also:
BWorld 649, On smoking, vaping, consumer choice and life expectancy, November 02, 2023
BWorld 650, Financing growth: Maharlika Fund and SWFs from abroad, Novermber 03, 2023
BWorld 651, Coal and nuclear power as growth drivers, November 05, 2023.

Welfarism 37, On endless aid and freebies

Early this week I got a call from a neighbor that there will be "ayuda" or aid from the Barangay, perhaps a way of "thank you" from the current Brgy officials who were reelected in the Brgy elections last week Oct. 30? I don't know. Just one requirement, I was told -- photocopy of any government-issued ID back to back, signed. Another neighbor offered to submit my ID photo along with theirs, so no more hassle on my part.

Then yesterday my neighbor said I must go to the Barangay hall myself to get a QR code as prerequisite for the ayuda, but I better go there by evening due to long queu of people, and gave me back my ID photo. It would be a hassle for me to go to the barangay hall at night but since I'm an economic researcher of public finance, I was curious -- what is this Barangay ayuda?

So I went to the barangay hall last night past 9pm to get that QR code. I was surprised there were still many people queuing. Since I'm a senior citizen already, a barangay staff got my ID photo and submitted it to another staff. 

Then I was given a "Barangay Indigency" certficate. Haaa? Then I was ushered to another table to get the QR code, I got it within minutes.

Only when I saw the QR code paper that I realized it was not a Barangay captain ayuda but a DSWD ayuda, cash plus rice. The House of Representatives and "Bagong Pilipinas" also in the QR code paper. First time I heard or saw this "New Philippines."

While inside the barangay hall, I noticed that the staff were helpful enough, endured long day work. Barangay Captain Cajes was still there, and one guy who was sort of "makulit" asking many questions, Mr. Cajes himself answered his questions, explained other matters. Good guy.

I left the Barangay hall almost 10pm, the Barangay Capt. also left that time, I saw him board his van. 

Ok, since I don't consider myself an indigent -- am not rich but not indigent either -- I said I won't get that aid. But I will observe the next day the process of ayuda distribution. 

This afternoon past 2pm I went to the barangay complex, I was surprised at the long queu of people. These are folks from other barangays of Makati, DSWD simply centralized the distribution in our barangay hall because it's new and large.

On the opposite end of the road, there were soooo many motorcycles and tricycles. I saw people carrying half-cavan or 25-kilos rice. Ok, so they need tricycles to transport the rice to their houses.

Inside the barangay complex.

I asked one staff, what is given away by DSWD? He replied a sack of 25-kilos rice plus P1,050 cash. But recipients must fill up these two forms, and have two photocopies of the "Barangay Indigency" certificate.

I thanked the staff then I left and went back home. These two forms, DSWD and many other government agencies harvesting more info from the people.

Some recent reports this year in BusinessWorld about DSWD:

"Cash program to be expanded by gov’t" (August 15),

"Gov’t told to include more Pinoys in cash transfer program" (August 17),

"Gov’t to distribute cash aid to sari-sari stores, Sept. 25-29" (September 24).

I hope that more citizen self-reliance, not citizen dependence on government, will be realized by more people in this country.

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See also:
Cicero, welfarism and fiscal irresponsibility, August 11, 2016

Welfarism 34, Larry Reed on poverty and self-reliance, December 07, 2019 

Welfarism 35, Healthcare is not personal/parental responsibility, only state responsibility, February 14, 2020 
Welfarism 36, On mandatory 20% discount for seniors, PWDs, June 13, 2020.

BWorld 651, Coal and nuclear power as growth drivers

Coal and nuclear power as growth drivers
October 26, 2023 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/10/26/553602/coal-and-nuclear-power-as-growth-drivers/

(Part 3 of a series)

We go straight to the numbers. I construct this table showing the changes in consumption per capita of coal and nuclear power of various countries over two decades, and 2002 and 2022. Data sources are: 1.) Annual data in terawatt-hours (TWH) coal and nuclear consumption from Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy (EI-SRWE) 2023, and, 2.) Population and annual GDP growth from IMF World Economic Outlook (IMF-WEO) 2023. Then I computed the per capita consumption and average GDP growth.

The numbers and trend show that, 1.) decarbonizing, de-coal, de-nuclear power countries have experienced a significant slowdown in GDP growth bordering on degrowth, 2.) carbonizing, high coal and high nuke power consuming countries experienced flat or increased economic growth, and, 3.) India and the Philippines (and other developing countries) still have very low coal use per capita, about 1/20 or less compared to many countries in the table, and yet are being endlessly bullied to cut their coal consumption.

So there. The numbers are actual, straightforward, and clear, not hypothetical or garbled. Of course, there are many other factors why countries have fast or slow growth but since almost everything in modern and developing economies require energy, the high coal and nuclear (and gas) consumption by countries enabled them to grow fast, industrialize, and improve the standard of living of their people. When they reverse track, de-coal and even de-nuke, they grow slowly, bordering on stopping growth which will come soon.

When I was in Nice, France last week for the Tholos Forum 2023, a three-day conference on free markets, consumer freedom, and energy realism, the bright lights of the boulevard in Cote d’Azur alone were a tourist attraction. Strangers and visitors can walk safely under the bright and beautiful lights. France is a powerhouse in nuclear energy generation.

The Philippine government, business and civil society leaders should bear this in mind. Our main priority should be fast growth, creating more jobs and businesses for our people. Not the globalist agenda of ecological central planning and energy rationing.

Meanwhile, many energy issues were recently reported in BusinessWorld.

1. On decarbonization: “ADB pitches farm decarbonization as food security issue” (Oct. 2), “Industry ponders the ‘long road’ before hydrogen becomes viable” (Oct. 15), “‘Smart and green’ infra being readied to serve offshore wind industry” (Oct. 16), “Adjustments to next PHL Energy Plan expected to reflect rapid developments in renewables” (Oct. 19), “World Bank estimates Philippine decarbonization bill at $62 billion” (Oct. 22), and, “China wind power firms may invest $4 billion, BoI says” (Oct. 24).

2. On the rollout of electric vehicles (EV): “EV industry anticipating upside surprise in vehicle penetration over next 5-10 years” (Oct. 18), “Extension of import duty concessions seen as crucial for growing EV adoption” (Oct. 19), and, “DoE sees extent of EV rollout depending on policy coordination with other agencies” (Oct. 22).

3. On the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP): “NGCP wins approval for 4 ancillary services contracts” (Oct. 9), “NGCP seeks gov’t support to meet tight deadline for connecting Batangas, Mindoro” (Oct. 11), “Mindanao-Visayas grid link expected to be complete by end of 2023 — NGCP” (Oct. 12), “NGCP asked to submit ECCs, contracts ahead of review” (Oct. 16), and, “ERC rejects NGCP petition to amend rules on transmission wheeling rates” (Oct. 17).

4. On nuclear power development: “APEC councils to conduct roundtable on nuclear power viability” (Oct. 23), and, “Energy dep’t says push to satisfy IAEA nuclear power requirements underway” (Oct. 24).

ABAC FORUM ON NUCLEAR ENERGY

Last Tuesday, Oct. 24, I attended the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) virtual forum, “Fueled by Change: Understanding Nuclear Energy Transition.” The opening messages were given by Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla, Jan de Silva of the Toronto Region Board of Trade, and Sabin Aboitiz, the President and CEO of Aboitiz Group and also the Lead Strategic Convener of the Private Sector Advisory Council to the Philippine government, Co-Chairman of the ABAC Sustainable Growth Working Group, and Steward of the Council for Inclusive Capitalism.

The program was hosted by smooth-speaking engineer and fellow UP alumnus Suiee Suarez who is the Vice-President for Corporate Affairs of Aboitiz Power. After the three main speakers have spoken, Mr. Suarez turned over the moderation of two panels to Ruth Yu-Owen, President of Upgrade Energy Philippines. There were four speakers (from Canada, the Philippines, Japan, China) each in Session 1, “Collaboration and financing for nuclear energy transition,” and Session 2, “Nuclear energy integration and innovation.” These were financial and technical or engineering discussions.

A summary of the forum was reported by Sheldeen Joy Talavera in her report in BusinessWorld, “Energy dep’t says push to satisfy IAEA nuclear power requirements underway.”

The projected high EV rollout will soon require a huge supply of electricity. From the current average of six terawatt-hours (TWH) annual increase in power generation, we should increase this to nine to 10 TWH annually. This cannot be provided by intermittent wind, solar, and biomass, and even by geothermal or small hydro. It can only be safely and reliably delivered by huge thermal plants (oil, gas, coal) and nuclear power.

SILVER LINING THE MUSICAL

I watched Silver Lining the Musical last Sunday at RCBC Plaza’s Carlos P. Romulo auditorium in Makati. Wonderful acting, dancing, and singing by a big group of talented actors and singers. The auditorium itself is testament to the need for a huge, ample supply of electricity — plenty of lights, a cold big room, good sounds and audio.

The composer and lyricist of Silver Lining, Jack Teotico, a fellow UP School of Economics alumnus, says the musical is the story of the baby boomer generation. It is about brotherhood and fraternities, class parties and ligawan/courtship, triumph in university basketball competitions, falling in love for the first time, old flames and crushes, quo vadis about the world, and so on.

The last shows will be from Friday to Sunday, Oct. 27-29. Then the venue will no longer be available. It is a bright work of art that deserves a re-run in other theaters or auditoriums next year and succeeding years. Good job, Jack, Rockitwell band and studios, the players and singers.
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See also:
BWorld 648, Energizing growth: Lessons from UAE, France, and other countries, October 29, 2023
BWorld 649, On smoking, vaping, consumer choice and life expectancy, November 02, 2023
BWorld 650, Financing growth: Maharlika Fund and SWFs from abroad, Novermber 03, 2023.

Ukraine War 1, Ukraine may soon surrender, then war in Europe will stop, good

Good news, seems that peace in Europe, end to Ukraine war, is near via negotiations and not endless war. The war mongers are folding.

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say
The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.
By Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee and Kristen Welker. Nov. 4, 2023
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-european-officials-broach-topic-peace-negotiations-ukraine-sources-rcna123628.

Earlier Ukraine top military commander spoke publicly that there's no military gain in their "counteroffensive". Implying the need to negotiate. And Late October, EU allies of Ukraine already sidelined it, 

Ukraine's Top Commander Makes Surprising First-Time Admission
Tyler Durden Nov. 03, 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraines-top-commander-makes-surprising-first-time-admission

EU summit turns its eyes away from Ukraine despite a commitment to stay the course with Zelenskyy
AP  OCT 28 2023 
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/28/eu-summit-turns-its-eyes-away-from-ukraine-despite-a-commitment-to-stay-the-course-with-zelenskyy.html

WTI crude now only $80/barrel, much lower than pre invasion ave $90 in January 2022, and despite ongoing turmoil in Mideast. Urals or Russia oil price difference with WTI down to only $5-10/barrel, vs $20-25 at height of G7 and EU sanctions.

EU countries' economies either crawling or contracting this year, lower energy demand. EU realized lately their sanctions vs Russia hit them more than Russia itself. EU people try to save the planet while Russia and OPEC save their oil-gas production and exports.

Dwindling ammos and missiles, many Ukraine youths avoiding the military draft, Ukraine defeat via more territories being grabbed by Russia is certain. A peace deal is better than clear defeat. 

Economic realities are getting into the consciousness of the leaders of the West. Ammunition supplies to Ukraine are dwindling, and young Ukrainians are avoiding to be drafted to the military. With less arms and less troops versus Russia, the West will eventually pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. A peace deal is superior to outright defeat.

Germany a big loser in their support for Ukraine and economic sanctions vs Russia. Its GDP growth this year was -0.2% in Q1, zero in Q2, and -0.3% in Q3. Cheap Russia oil gas for Germany's industrial needs has little to no alternative, only expensive oil gas from Mideast due to higher transport cost, long distance.

Before the invasion, 2 issues or demand by Russia: No NATO membership for Ukraine, and Donbas region be separate republics from Ukraine. Ukraine said No to both because the US and many NATO countries promised it continuous supply of armaments. Then there is war.

If war will end, Russia will demand exactly same issues as precondition. This time Ukraine will likely say Yes.

Yon naman pala eh. War could have been avoided in the first place.

Peace via negotiations, not endless wars.

BWorld 650, Financing growth: Maharlika Fund and SWFs from abroad

Financing growth: Maharlika Fund and SWFs from abroad
October 24, 2023 | 12:03 am

My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/10/24/553147/financing-growth-maharlika-fund-and-swfs-from-abroad/

(Part 6 of a series)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2023 two weeks ago. In Table 1 I show the largest economies in the world, with a focus on Asians. Two valuations of GDP here: nominal (GDP at national currency divided by US$ average exchange rate for the year) and purchasing power parity (PPP, which converts the currency of one country with another to buy the same amount of goods and services in each country).

When it came to GDP at nominal values in 2022, the US was the largest in the world and three Asians were in the top 10. When it came to GDP at PPP values, China was the largest and three other Asians were in the top 10 — India, Japan, and Indonesia.

The Philippines was the 30th largest economy in the world at PPP values, but in nominal values, it was the 39th largest (Table 1). Since we have the 12th largest population in the world, this does not appear impressive, but if we look at the expansion over the past 20 years, from 2002 to 2022, the Philippines’ economy has expanded four to five times while the population has expanded only 1.4 times, from 80 million in 2002 to 112 million in 2022.

So there has been a significant increase in productivity and income in the Philippines and many other developing countries through the years and it is something to ponder, that all those crisis narratives and the alarmism in the world — the food/hunger crisis, the oil/energy crisis, the NCDs/virus crisis, the climate/garbage crisis, etc. — are not realistic enough to deter continued improvement in the people’s lives and standard of living.

MAHARLIKA FUND AND SWFs ABROAD

The Philippines economic team, composed of Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman, Economics Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, and Bangko Sentral officials went to Doha, Qatar and Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Sept. 10 to 12, for a business dialogue and Philippine Economic Briefing (PEB). The team met with the representatives of the sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) of both countries — the Qatar Investment Authority and the Investment Corp. of Dubai — plus other big investment entities. Several big investment pledges were made on those two economic diplomacy meetings in the Middle East.

Then President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. went to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for business dialogue last week, on Oct. 19. The head of the economic team, Mr. Diokno, joined him and again pitched the Maharlika Investment Fund. He said that “Maharlika seeks to work with other sovereign wealth funds, both as an investment partner and peer in the global sovereign wealth fund community. We look forward to exchanging views and learning from the best practices of top-of-class funds, such as those here in Saudi Arabia.”

Here are recent stories in BusinessWorld about the Maharlika Fund: “Philippines’ Marcos suspends implementation of sovereign wealth fund” (Oct. 18), “Philippines committed to start operating sovereign wealth fund this year — Marcos” (Oct. 19), “Safeguards sought for Maharlika fund” (Oct. 19), “Diokno tells Saudi investors Maharlika fund prioritizes safety, transparency” (Oct. 20), “Philippines says over $4.26-B investment deals agreed with Saudi business leaders” (Oct. 20), “MIF’s governance structure needs improvement — analysts” (Oct. 23).

For me, the establishment of the Maharlika Investment Fund is good and important mainly because there are many big infrastructure projects that must be done here, like the Cavite-Corregidor-Bataan bridge, and the Iloilo-Guimaras-Negros bridge, both 32 kms long each. And there are many super-rich and wealthy SWFs abroad that can be tapped to invest here and having our own SWF or sovereign investment fund will help attract them. In Table 2 are listed the largest and richest SWFs abroad.

I doubt the government-owned banks like LANDBANK and DBP, even the big conglomerates here like San Miguel Corp. and Metro Pacific, can attract those big SWFs abroad to bring in big money. They lack the political plus financial muscles in the vetting process by those huge SWFs. The Maharlika Fund capitalization of P500 billion is only $8.9 billion (at P56/$), of which only P125 billion is the initial capitalization. An investment of $2-3 billion in Maharlika is “small amount” for the SWFs of UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Not to mention the SWFs of Norway, China, Kuwait, Singapore and Hong Kong.

This administration’s economic team is doing the right thing when it comes to business and investment diplomacy. Go out there and meet those big SWFs, tell them of the reforms that have been done, the reforms that are under way, the big infrastructure projects that can be utilized by our big population and rising business communities. We need to sustain fast growth, 5% to 8% yearly, for many years to come.
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See also:
BWorld 647, Declining unemployment and the Tholos forum, October 28, 2023
BWorld 648, Energizing growth: Lessons from UAE, France, and other countries, October 29, 2023
BWorld 649, On smoking, vaping, consumer choice and life expectancy, November 02, 2023.

Doc Iggy Agbayani legal case, Part 1

Three statements here, from the Philippine Orthopedic Association, the Phi Kappa Mu fraternity based at the UP College of Medicine, and the UP Medical Alumni Society of America (UP MASA).

And the UP MASA.

Fall 2023 UPMASA Bulletin

"... 2 things resonated during the BOG meeting: first was a discussion of the case of a beloved UP Alumni from Class 91, Benigno Agbayani Jr who is a respected Orthopedic Surgeon in the Philippines who was sued in 2006 for an infection that complicated a seemingly routine Arthroscopy.  The case lingered and culminated in unsuccessful appeals ending in a jail sentence of more that 1 year.  Tragically, he suffered a fatal heart attack while incarcerated, a mere several days before an early release for good behavior.  This highlights an oddity in Philippine law that seems to not have a clear demarcation from a civil and criminal law.  What normally would be expected to be a civil case ending in a criminal sentence.  In our society, it is inconceivable for such a case to end up with a prison sentence.  UPMASA cannot sit quiet.   One of our mission statements is to promote the well-being of the Physician not only here in United States, but also in our homeland.  This case seemed to have undermined the sanctity of informed consents. The decision on the case likewise puts the Physician more vulnerable to those who just exploit the legal system for personal gains."

https://us17.campaign-archive.com/?u=18f4281db46139919bc57426f&id=7d2e32b190

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See also:
CDC PH statement on the passing of Doc Iggy Agbayani, October 08, 2023
Doc Iggy Agbayani letter to his fellow doctors, October 15, 2023
BWorld 646, Revisiting the lockdown, the role of CDC PH and Doc Iggy Agbayani, October 27, 2023.

BWorld 649, On smoking, vaping, consumer choice and life expectancy

On smoking, vaping, consumer choice and life expectancy
October 19, 2023 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/10/19/552298/on-smoking-vaping-consumer-choice-and-life-expectancy/

NICE, France — The issue of tobacco and vape control, taxation and illicit trade is among the topics in the Tholos Forum 2023 here. And these two recent reports in BusinessWorld caught my attention: “High tobacco taxes encourage smuggling, economist says” (Oct. 12) and “PHL to lose P60B from illicit tobacco” (Oct. 18).

The economist referred to in the first story is Alyssamae A. Nuñez, an Economics lecturer at the University of Asia and the Pacific. The figure of P60 billion/year of tax revenue losses from illicit and smuggled cigarettes came from Congressman Joey Salceda, Chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means. In March 2021, Mr. Salceda’s estimate was P30 billion/year of foregone revenues from illicit tobacco. In just two years he has doubled his estimate of tax losses.

I have also written in this column several times on illicit tobacco and revenue losses, most recently in May, “The Laffer Curve of Philippine tobacco taxation,” and June, “The law of diminishing marginal utility and public policy.”

People in general are rational. They slowly step back from consuming more tobacco, alcohol, sugar, fatty food, and drinks as they learn more about the harmful effects of high consumption of these products. (Some, however, are hooked and pursue it even while understanding the consequences to their health.) They also step back from legal products when these become more expensive due to rising taxes and they shift to illegal products where prices are much lower than the legal ones.

I put together a table about smoking prevalence and life expectancy. Group A is made up of G7 industrial countries, and Group B is made up of the ASEAN-6 countries. Data from the World Bank shows there was a continued decline in smoking prevalence from 2000 to 2020. In the Philippines for instance, 35% of adults were tobacco users in 2000, and this declined to 23% by 2020. But note that these percentages refer to the consumption of legal tobacco and do not include illegal tobacco.

And even if 15% to 33% of adults are smokers in the G7, and 22% to 38% of adults in the ASEAN are smokers, life expectancy keeps rising across many countries. The narrative “more smoking, more drinking = more death” is not really confirmed (see Table 1).

As tobacco and alcohol tax rates keep rising, consumption shifts from legal and taxed products to illegal and untaxed products. And this will have a negative effect not only on government revenues but more importantly on the culture of corruption in government. Smugglers and criminal groups pay off officials from the national down to the barangay level so that they look the other way when the contraband and smuggled products come in and are sold openly.

On Day 2 of the Tholos Forum 2023 here in Nice, France, one panel discussion yesterday was on “Harm Reduction and Consumer Freedom” and the speakers were Anders Ydstedt, Chairman of Svensk Tidskrift, a weekly journal of economics, politics and culture in Sweden; Yuya Watase, Chairman of the Pacific Alliance Institute, a free market think tank in Japan; Luis Loria of IDEASLab, a think tank in Costa Rica; and Leonardo Chagas of Atlantos, a think tank in Brazil. The moderator was Tim Andrews of Tholos.

Ydstedt and Watase produced a paper, “Safer Nicotine Works: The Cases of Japan and Sweden,” and they showed this table (Table 2) on declining smoking rates. The primary source of data was not shown (most likely Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development stats) but nonetheless, the trend is there — declining smoking rates as more people either have quit smoking and/or have shifted to illegal products or shifted to alternatives like vaping and snus (snuff) in Sweden.

Some important points to conclude and ponder.

One, the law of diminishing marginal revenues, the Laffer curve of optimal taxation, is real not fictional and is happening in the Philippines. As tobacco tax rates increase, people shift to illegal products and tax-paying legal products are hit, leading to reduced government tobacco tax revenues in 2022.

Two, people own their body and lives. Not the government, not the NGOs or media or doctors. Individual and consumer freedom means individual and parental responsibility of taking care of one’s body.

Three, harm reduction is a rational act by people. Instead of drinking 40% alcohol content whisky, they shift to 15% alcohol wine, or 5% alcohol beer. Instead of drinking high sugar soda, they shift to low or zero sugar soda. Instead of smoking cigarettes, they shift to vaping heated tobacco products or snus. Government and NGOs should respect those harm reduction acts, not demonize them.

Four, if a nanny state and NGOs really want to take over people’s behavior about their body, then they should be consistent. Regulate smoking, vaping and drinking; regulate sky jumping and deep-sea diving; regulate rock and tall trees climbing; regulate downhill cycling and cliff diving, and so on. Just one major mistake on those hobbies and adventures can lead to serious physical injuries if not death.

Five, government should focus on its basic functions that it was invented for in the first place: to protect the people’s right to life, right to property, and right to liberty. So, government should ban and control murder and killing, abduction and rape, stealing and destruction of property, bullying and killing people’s right to self-expression and mobility. When government is preoccupied with over-regulating smoking, drinking, vaping, gambling, etc., it will have little time to do its basic functions.

Finally, on individual freedom of expression: Among my favorite local rock bands is the Rockitwell band headed by fellow UP School of Economics alumnus Jack Teotico who owns Gallerie Joaquin. Now, Jack — the economist, the gallerist and the rock singer — is setting up a new and completely original musical titled Silver Lining. Producing a musical — whether it is on Broadway, off Broadway, the West End, or in Makati — like Silver Lining takes economic magic to make sense. The resources and talents to be harnessed are gargantuan. The audience will see Silver Lining starting this weekend, Oct. 20 to 22, then Oct. 27 to 29, at the Carlos P. Romulo Auditorium, RCBC Plaza in Makati. It stars Jack and noted thespians Ricky Davao, Raul Mabesa, Joel Nunez, and Starmagic talents like Krystal Brimner.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.
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See also:
BWorld 646, Revisiting the lockdown, the role of CDC PH and Doc Iggy Agbayani, October 27, 2023
BWorld 647, Declining unemployment and the Tholos forum, October 28, 2023
BWorld 648, Energizing growth: Lessons from UAE, France, and other countries, October 29, 2023.

PhilStar 3, On endless wars, endless welfare and public debt

This is my third guest article in Philippine Star. Here are the three papers:

Commentary: Is mining taxation’s purpose to create more taxation?
Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - Philstar.com
November 10, 2018 | 10:47am
https://www.philstar.com/news-commentary/2018/11/10/1867452/commentary-mining-taxations-purpose-create-more-taxation

Strong US dollar and how to deal with it
Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star
September 22, 2022 | 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/business/2022/09/22/2211288/strong-us-dollar-and-how-deal-it

On endless wars, endless welfare and public debt
Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star
October 18, 2023 | 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/business/2023/10/18/2304520/endless-wars-endless-welfare-and-public-debt

NICE, France –  Ever rising government spending on wars, subsidies and freebies, funded by rising taxes and borrowings leading to high interest and inflation rates. These are realities discussed by many people almost anywhere in the world.

I am attending the Tholos Forum 2023 from Oct. 16 to 18 here in France and some of my fellow participants from Europe and US are discussing the economic distortions of continuing proxy war in Ukraine against Russia, and soon escalated war between Israel and Iran-backed groups Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and possibly Iran itself. And the US and NATO preparation for possible confrontation with China over Taiwan.

Then there is the unabated illegal immigration by the millions yearly in US and Europe. And because these are welfare states, US and European countries have to provide basic necessities to these illegals, money generally borrowed as their existing revenues are not even enough to cover domestic spending for their citizens and infrastructure projects.

These two issues alone – endless wars, endless subsidies – are escalating instead of subsiding. This leads to rising public debt as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP). I checked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Monitor, net lending as percent of GDP remain always in negative or deficit for decades for many countries.

Gross debt of the US at 56 percent of GDP in2002 has jumped to 103 percent in 2012 and 121 percent in 2022. For France, gross debt of 60 percent in 2002 jumped to 91 percent in 2012 and 112 percent in 2022.

The Philippines gross debt of 65 percent of GDP in 2002 has significantly declined to only 37 percent in 2019 but quickly jumped to 52 percent in 2020. Thailand has a similar trend while Vietnam has initially followed the US and Europe trend but kept its debt to only 35 percent in 2022 (see table).

On day 1, Oct. 16 of the Tholos Forum, the dinner speaker was Grover Norquist, president of the Americans for Tax Reforms (ATR) and he talked about US politics and evolution of Republicans vs Democrats debate on taxes and spending.

When US president Ronald Reagan pushed and implemented his big tax cut policies around 1985, he wanted an independent think tank to guard it and monitor GOP legislators to never entertain any tax hike. So ATR was formed that year with Grover as its president until today. I first met Grover in their office in Washington DC in 2004 when I was an Atlas International Fellow and I attended several free market-oriented conferences and meetings in the US for a month.

The main function of ATR is to ask politicians especially Republicans to sign the “Taxpayer Protection Pledge.” The Pledge is to make “no-new-taxes” promise and rhetorics by candidates and incumbent legislators and governors be put in writing. Then ATR announces and publicizes the politicians who sign the pledge. It is an effective pressure work on US politicians, that is why most tax hike laws were sponsored by Democrats and some Republicans who did not sign the Pledge.

ATR and Tholos Foundation have international network of center-right groups, think tanks and NGOs. The Tholos Forum here in France has nearly 60 participants from the US, Europe, South America and Asia, many from taxpayer groups. We are three Asians here, me, Raymond Ho from Hong Kong, and Yuya Watase from Japan.

In the case of the Philippines, we are lucky being not involved in any war abroad, domestic insurgency has been controlled, but there is continuing noise and lobby often silently sponsored by the US, to raise military spending over territorial disputes with China. But the bigger problem is endless subsidies and freebies that continue to compromise whatever new revenues that come and thus public borrowings remain high at P2+ trillion a year from 2020 onwards. The military and uniformed personnel (MUP) pension is also another fiscal drag because these personnel never contribute to their own future pension, which is rising and not constant, tax-free, and passable to spouse when the personnel has died.

Around the world, people need to assert their right to keep the fruits of their hard work by resisting endless wars, endless subsidies and freebies that will require endless taxes and borrowings. If external war-mongering countries would only step back, countries with territorial disputes tend to talk to each other, long negotiations but no war. And people should go back to assuming more personal and parental responsibilities in running their own lives. More government responsibility in education, healthcare, housing, pension, etc. has corrupted people’s values. We should stop this.