* Notes: (1) I changed the subject series name from "Population Control" to "Demography" starting this paper. And (2) This is my article today in thelobbyist.biz.
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Here is one projection of the evolving global demography.
By 2050, ranked #9 Russia and #10 Japan in population size this year, will be
out of the top 12. The Philippines currently #12 will rise to #10 by 2050.
Meanwhile, African countries Congo to rank #12 and Ethiopia to rank #9, and
India will overtake China as #1 by 2050.
Figure 1. The
World’s 12 Biggest Countries in Population Size, 1950, 2013 and 2050.
Source: The Economist, The
world’s population.
It implies that the population of the currently poorer
countries is expected to expand fast while the population of the currently rich
countries will plateau, if not slowly decline. In the minds of people bent on
instituting population control, this scenario looks terrifying to them.
More details here. From one estimate, the worldometers,
this year, 10 Asian countries are in the top 20 – China, India, Indonesia,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran and Thailand. Four are
from Africa – Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egupt and Congo. Three from North and South
America – US, Brazil and Mexico, and three from Europe – Russia, Germany and
Turkey.
By 2050, there will be nine from Asia (Thailand will be
out), six from Africa (Tanzania and Kenya in) three from the Americas and only
two from Europe (Germany will be out).
Table 1. Most
Populous Countries, 2013 and 2050 Projections
In another data, some 10 percent or higher of the total
population of Japan, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Canada, Switzerland,
will be 80 years or older by 2050. An even higher percentage will be people who
are 70 and older. For these countries, they will get more robots, or more
humans, to take care of their oldies and economies. From where? From countries
with many "unwanted pregnancies" and "surplus/unwanted
children", like the Philippines.
Table 2. Percent
of Total Population who are 80 years or older, 2013 and 2050.
Source: The Economist, Longevity
and Economic Growth
Meanwhile, the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates
that there were about 96 million Filipinos as of mid-2012. The US Central
Intelligence Agency (CIA) says there were 103 M that year. Perhaps the CIA
counts Filipinos working and studying abroad, hence it bloated its data by 7 M.
Table 3. Asian
Population as of 2012, CIA data.
Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?r=as.
Rich but low and/or ageing population Asian countries -- Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore -- they will soon be begging for more Filipino workers to help run their economies, from managers, engineers and nurses, bus and train drivers, house helpers and factory workers.
Some people people shake their heads when those
"surplus children" are still small because they appear to be
“underfed and underclothed.” When those children later become adults, other people
will soon be referring to them as drivers, car mechanics, electricians and
plumbers, construction workers, yaya for their kids. The better schooled among
these children become office workers, while the more entrepreneurial will have
carinderias or fishball stalls or driving their own jeepney or taxi, that
people patronize.
One test for people who dislike more “unwanted
pregnancies” and hence, support government-sponsored population control, is to
ask the security guards, janitors, electricians, etc. in their building, how
many siblings they have. Most likely they will give answers like 4, 7, 10 or
more. In the minds of the population control advocates, some of those children should
have never been born because they were "unwanted pregnancies" and
"surplus or unwanted children". They dislike if not demonize
"surplus children" when these kids are still small. But they cannot
function properly in their comfortable offices and buildings if those security
guards, electricians, building cleaners, etc. are not around.
People are assets, not liabilities. More people, more
assets. The real liabilities – the thieves, murderers, rapists, extortionists,
corrupt officials -- government should get them. The bad guys can be everywhere,
in poor and rich households, in private and government offices. From most
disappointment of the people, in the Philippines or elsewhere, it is directed
more to those in the government than in the private sector. It is not wise to
keep expanding government.
See also:
Population Control 15: Debate, Debate, on the RH Bill, December 03, 2012
Population Control 16: RH Bill as HR, Coercion as Choice, December 13, 2012
Population Control 17: China's Depopulation and RH Law, March 03, 2013
Population Control 18: Billions of RH Services Even Without an RH law, July 28, 2013
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