The Presidential and national + local elections in the Philippines are just 11 months away. I am reposting below a commentary, a good analysis, from a political scientist who does real
political science analysis and shares his frank ideas in facebook and social media, Dr. Segundo "Doy" Romero. He was my former teacher
in Pol. Science 14 (PH politics and government) in UP Diliman, sometime in 1983 or 84.
Copy-pasting with zero alteration, from his raw and informal posting in his fb wall the other day. The photos I got from the web and adding them here.
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1. On VP Jojo Binay:
BINAY FOR PRESIDENT! Part of the wisdom of the Filipino
people is their ability to gravitate towards personalities that have that
quality they need in a leader during specific periods in the nation's life.
Charisma brings magic to the way a presidential candidate and the people find
themselves invigorating each other. Even now, people remember fondly Ramon
Magsaysay, Corazon Aquino, and the would-be presidents who never were -- Ninoy
Aquino, Fernando Poe, and Jesse Robredo. When there is no charisma, when there
is a nagging suspicion of pandaraya o pagnanakaw, It takes a lot of money to
buy the people's favor when it is not there. That Manny Villar found out in
2010. I hope Jejomar Binay gets the chance to find out for himself in 2016, so
that he will have a way of giving back to the people what his family has
creatively appropriated for themselves, in the thought that like in war,
elections are a matter of preparing a large enough war chest. Let us not
dissuade Binay from running from President in 2016. Our people would know how
to put him in his right place.
2. On Sec. Mar Roxas:
THE GREATEST DISSERVICE OF THE LIBERAL PARTY TO THE
FILIPINO PEOPLE ... is in continuing to half-heartedly promote the candidacy of
Mar Roxas in the 2016 presidential elections. Most people know Mar has no
eye-contact with the Filipino people, and just like in basketball, he has
stayed too long under the basket without the ball and needs to free the space for
new players. The Liberal Party over the last five years has not really looked
for an alternative to present to and excite the people, a grossly
over-confident, even negligent course of action for a party in power.
3. On Sen. Grace Poe:
The Liberal Party should now put itself squarely behind
Grace Poe as candidate for President. In signing the Senate Committee report
that recommended Binay to be investigated by the Ombudsman for corruption, Poe
has shown she is of sterner stuff than many imagined. She would be my candidate
any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.
But Grace Poe should be a candidate of more than the
Liberal Party -- she should remain independent going into the elections, as the
Liberal Party has unnecessarily alienated many voters and absorbed many
poisonous creatures, even as President Aquino's administration over the last
five years has had high approval from the people.
What the Liberal Party can constructively do is to help
build the organizational and managerial scaffoldings of a Poe presidency, so
that she hits the ground running in July 2016. She must have a strong cabinet,
a coherent strategy and vision, workable relationships with Congress, the
courts, and the Constitutional Commissions, a good public information system,
shared command of local governance with LCEs, and must be able to spot and
avoid hiccups like the Luneta hostage-taking crisis that rattled the Aquino
Presidency early on.
Because she knows it is necessary, Grace Poe is a fast
and willing learner. She must be given the systematic briefings and
experiential involvement she needs to be presidential in mind and performance.
The heart, I think, is already there, as oftentimes it is the main asset
"inexperienced" politicians bring into politics. Heart and morality
are the first things that politicians lose in trying to gain experience against
low-life personalities that chose public service as their career.
4. On Mar Roxas-Grace Poe tandem:
If that is the best combination we offer the Filipino
electorate in 2016, then the next Philippine President for 2016-2022 might
either be Erap or Binay, with Poe as Vice-President. Let us remember that Erap
was second only to PNoy in the 2010 Presidential elections and Binay won over
Mar Roxas as Vice-President. Only Poe will clearly beat Erap or Binay for the
Presidency. Fielding Mar Roxas as President will not only lose the Presidency
to somebody else, but will also mean another minority President, as his
candidacy will encourage so many others like Ping Lacson, Rodrigo Duterte,
Miriam Santiago, apart from Erap and Binay, who would think they have a
reasonable chance of beating Roxas for the Presidency. Roxas would also
consolidate all the anti-PNoy forces and sentiments against him. On the other
hand, a Poe candidacy will ride on the combined endorsement of Pnoy and Erap,
apart from the silent endorsement of FPJ, the loud support of all the weighty
movie stars in the Philippine firmament, and a natural gaan ng loob of the
masses towards Grace Poe. By the way, an Erap-Poe result in 2016 might not be
too bad if Erap again "resigns" in mid-term and allows another woman
to serve out his remaining term, and run for and win her own term until 2028.
An interesting version of Tadhana for us.
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See also:
Election 7: My Candidates for Senators, May 12, 2013
Election 8: Growth, Debt and the 2013 Polls, May 30, 2013
Election 9: India's Political Dynasties vs. Democracy, April 21, 2014
Election 10: Comelec Critics and Commissioner Luie Guia, December 26, 2015
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