Global trade has significantly slowed down in 2015 which
is ironic because it was the start of significant oil price declines. After
recovering from the 2009-2010 global financial turmoil that started in the US,
global exports reached $18.3 trillion in 2011, $19.0 trillion in 2014, but
declined to $16.5 trillion in 2015.
Nonetheless, there are some good news in Asian trade
which battled this global trend in export decline.
Below is my list of these positive developments.
1 China, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and the Philippines did not
follow this global trend. Their exports in 2015 were higher than their 2011
levels. For the Philippines, exports reached $58.6 billion in 2015, higher than
2011’s $48.3 billion.
2 Many Asian economies remain leading exporters and
importers in merchandise or goods trade, led by China, Japan, South Korea, and
Hong Kong.
3 Five ASEAN countries are important players in global
merchandise trade with at least $150 billion in exports. The Philippines is
playing a far catch up with Indonesia and Vietnam.
4 In services trade (including revenues from tourism and
business process outsourcing (BPO) firms) many Asian economies still remain
part of the big- and medium-size players, at par or even larger than the
average European economies. The $915-billion revenues in 2015 is for all 28 EU
economies.
5 Within the ASEAN, the Philippines is a medium-size
services exporter while Indonesia did not belong to the top 50 in 2015 (see
Table 1).
6 In some sectors, the Philippines ranked #10 globally in
2015 in the exports of telecommunications, computer, and information with
revenues of $3.5 billion, and #6 in exports of computer services with revenues
of $3.2 billion.
7 Of the economic blocs and free trade areas (FTAs) in
the world, ASEAN is the third biggest next to the European Union and North
American FTA (NAFTA). They are followed by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),
European FTA (EFTA), SAARC Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA), and
Mercado Común del Sur (MERCUSOR).
8 An expanded ASEAN + 6 (China, Japan, South Korea,
India, Australia, New Zealand) under the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP) will easily overtake both the EU and NAFTA in total
merchandise exports. Those six partners are huge exporters except New Zealand
(see Table 2).
9 The statement “this is the Asian century” in terms of
trade and GDP growth will become true starting this decade. The main factor to
sustain this momentum is Asia’s huge and generally young population especially
in India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam, comprising 1.7 billion people
with an average age of only 24-25 years old which is one-half of the average
age of Japan and many developed countries in Europe.
10 The statement “If America (or Europe) turns
protectionist, Asia loses” is wrong. Whoever starts serious protectionism is
the loser. Free trade creates good will with other countries while expanding
the choices and options for local consumers and manufacturers, which expand
their productive capacity.
Should Mr. Trump proceed with his campaign promise to
ditch the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it can be good news for other Asian
economies that are outside of the five Asian economies that are part of the
TPP. They are expected to suffer some exports decline to big markets of the US,
Canada, and Japan due to trade diversion from non-members to TPP members.
Freer trade and fewer restrictions in the movement of
goods and people are becoming the norm in emerging and transitioning economies
of Asia than in developed Asia, Europe, and America.
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Minimal
Government Thinkers and a SEANET Fellow. Both institutes are members of
Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia.
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See also:
BWorld 101, Christmas lights, energy mix and electricity production in Asia, January 09, 2017
BWorld 101, Christmas lights, energy mix and electricity production in Asia, January 09, 2017
BWorld 102, Top 10 news of 2016, January 10, 2017
BWorld 103, How to improve the RORO system, January 11, 2017
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