When economic central planners were hoodwinked by, or
partner with ecological central planners, one result is lousy economic policy
based on crystal-ball predictions. Like this high oil, LPG, coal taxes under
TRAIN 1. Dutertenomists believed that world oil prices would never rise high
anymore partly because they thought that world demand for oil will flatline or
decline soon as more e-cars, e-bikes, e-buses come in. Of course the major
reason is they want more transfer of money from private/household pockets to
government pockets while they help "save the planet."
Meanwhile, Du30 already reversed financing of Kaliwa Dam, other big projects from integrated PPP to hybrid PPP so that more China loans, China contractors will be committed/involved by his admin. Now even building coal power plants to be given to CN communist govt and its crony firms? #TRAIN money will pay for these new big loans, http://bworldonline.com/china-may-build-clean-coal-power.../
Here is an example, economic central planners thought
that ecological central planners like UN-Al Gore-CCC, etc would be so right in
predicting declining world oil demand and hence, low/stable world oil prices.
Pernia: Gov't did
not expect crude price to reach multi-year highs
ABS-CBN News, May 19 2018 12:51 AM
I talked to one DOF Junior staff and that's what he told
me, DOF and the rest of Dutertenomics were thinking that supply-demand of gas
engine cars will decline as demand for electric cars will rise fast. Eh 1980s ko pa
narinig yang e-cars e-cars na yan, after 3-4 decades mostly press release lang
and far out from being a really useful stuff. The reality is the opposite of
what the ecological central planners say -- demand for oil-propelled vehicles,
planes, boats, will keep rising.
Dutertenomists (DOF, DBM, NEDA, DTI, BSP) were so certain
then when TRAIN was still a bill, that the inflationary impact of higher oil
prices due to high oil taxes would be only 0.7% max. As of April 2018, ytd jump
in inflation was 1.2% or nearly double their projected rates. So NEDA issued
another prediction last May 04 that look like based on crystal-ball de
manghuhula again.
UPTICK IN
INFLATION TEMPORARY – NEDA
May 4, 2018
I said "crystal-ball prediction" by NEDA of
inflation tapering off because govt, via LTFRB and Malacanang, with implicit silence of
all Dutertenomists, will not grant any fare hike adjustments. Govt is good in sucking taxes from owners and operators of jeepneys, taxi, UV express, buses
but will never grant fare adjustments.
If the Dutertenomists are responsible and honest, they
should voice out granting the fare hike adjustments now and find other means to
minimize the impact. Wala eh, pasimple lang.
Then January 2019 is near, round 2 of tax hikes for oil and
coal, also LPG I think. Inflationary pressure will build up as early as
December or Nov. 2018. Then tatahimik naman mga Dutertenomists for any fare
hikes?
To say that PH inflation rate is high because of high
world oil prices is dishonesty. If that statement is correct, then many if not
all oil-importing countries in the world should have experienced high inflation
in 2018 compared to December 2017 or full year 2017. This is NOT the case. Many
countries even experienced deep decline in domestic prices despite the rise in
world oil prices. See table 2 here,
Disruption,
inflation, and taxation
May 16, 2018 | 9:22 pm
"Inflation, as we have predicted, will be higher in
May, June and July but will eventually go down but still at a high level. It
will average close to BSP target band, so that should not lead to
suspension," Ang said.
He also cautioned against efforts to suspend the
implementation of the tax reform law, saying this would affect the country’s
credibility as a now investment grade nation. "TRAIN Law cannot be
reversed because the cost to economy and credibility is larger," he said,
adding that TRAIN is a package for economic growth. "If you suspend it,
where will you get the revenues to fund growth and what will investors and
ratings agency think."
Suspension of
TRAIN may affect Philippines credit rating — economist
Czeriza Valencia - May 21, 2018 - 12:00am
I agree with Alvin there, I do not support the suspension
of TRAIN 1. What I support is that many ugly and inflationary provisions of
TRAIN 1 like high energy taxes (oil, LPG, coal), sugar tax, should be reversed
and removed via TRAIN 2.
Du30 needs more TRAIN money so that the huge and many
China loans that his administration will contract will be paid someday. I doubt
if any of the Dutertenomists will admit the hidden agenda of build-build-build
via loans-loans-loans from the China communist government.
"Government may have been too busy or too excited to
collect the revenues from TRAIN that it forgot how important it is to prepare
for its implementation. How a tax is implemented is equally important, if not
more important, than the tax policy itself. Bad administration means bad
policies. All the excel formula on the results of the TRAIN on prices and
income distribution will come to naught when producers and taxpayers are left
on their own to adjust to changes in tax rules."
-- Nini Guevarra, former
DOF USec.
How not to do a
tax reform
Published May 15, 2018, 10:00 PM By Milwida M. Guevara
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