The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) released the Budget priorities framework for 2022. No National Expenditure Program (NEP) yet submitted to Congress.
The appropriations are: P4.1T in 2020, P4.5T in 2021, and proposed P5.0T in 2022. Disbursements/spending are actually understated bec they don't include spending by LGUs from local revenues on top of their IRA share.
The macroeconomic assumptions in making the budget proposal, the first 3 of these 6 assumptions look unrealistic and too optimistic, for 2021:
1. GDP, 6-7%; but we still have contraction in Q1, -4.2%.
2. Inflation, 2-4%; but we already have 4.4% Jan-June.
3. Dubai oil, $50-70/barrel; but Jan-July about $65 already.
When growth is lower, inflation and oil prices are higher, than the macroecon assumptions, very likely the revenue targets will not be met and the deficit, borrowings will be higher.
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See also:
Macroecon 8, Rising inflation rates, prices of industrial and agri commodities, June 18, 2021
Macroecon 9, Why we should return to the office, June 30, 2021
Macroecon 10, Inflation rates June 2021 of the US, PH, July 14, 2021.
Macroecon 8, Rising inflation rates, prices of industrial and agri commodities, June 18, 2021
Macroecon 9, Why we should return to the office, June 30, 2021
Macroecon 10, Inflation rates June 2021 of the US, PH, July 14, 2021.
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