The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released today the second quarter (Q2) 2021 GDP data.
The usual base effect. Q2 2020 was the deepest quarterly contraction since post WW2, so even mild increase in value or level of GDP will result in high % increase.
In terms of GDP level, at constant 2018 prices:
Q2 2018 P4.72 trillion
Q2 2019 P4.99 T
Q2 2020 P4.14 T
Q2 2021 P4.63 T
So Q2 this year is even lower than Q2 2018 or 3 yrs ago. Palakpakan ang indefinite lockdown.
In terms of GDP forecasting, Jonas Ravelas of BDO remains among the best in the country while other economists have far out forecasts.
https://www.bworldonline.com/analysts-q2-2021-gdp-estimates/
In the Q1 2021 forecast, Ravelas has the closest or best forecast, see
Macroecon 3, Five quarters of consecutive Philippines GDP contraction, May 11, 2021.
It is also the first time in so many years and even decades that many EU countries have double digit GDP quarterly growth. Still no congrats to their heavy lockdown policies.
DOF Secretary Sonny Dominguez and NEDA Secretary Karl Chua released a statement today re Q2 growth, expressing optimism. It will be inconvenient for them to show the Pesos value of GDP in Q2 2021 because it is lower than Q2 2018. So they have to focus on % change/growth.
Finally, see this quote from former BSP Deputy Governor,
"In our previous columns, we commended the President for literally burning our ships to the ground by declaring the lockdowns would stay unless we defeated the virus through effective protocols and prompt administration of the jabs."
-- Diwa Guinigundo
"Burning
the ships, the only choice?" July 1,
2021 | 6:20 pm
https://www.bworldonline.com/burning-the-ships-the-only-choice/
Diwa's wish has come true. Burning PH ships to the ground is commendable. We-hee.
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See also:
Macroecon 9, Why we should return to the office, June 30, 2021
Macroecon 10, Inflation rates June 2021 of the US, PH, July 14, 2021
Macroecon 11, PH budget 2022 initial numbers, July 28, 2021.
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