China remains the #1 source of PH merchandise imports. Latest data for Jan-May 2025 shows 28.4% of total imports from all countries and territories was from China; including HK makes it 29.8% or nearly 30%, from 26.9% in Jan-May 2024.
Yesterday, Jun Neri, chief economist of BPI posted this in "Oplas Perspectives" (OP) viber group. I thanked Jun for this very useful data. Other members of OP also chimed in.
I think there are three possible explanations for the wide gap between reported exports by CN companies and reported imports by PH companies.
1. Smuggling, technical smuggling via under-valuation of the things that people import from CN.
2. Prevalence of "de minimus" goods, small stuff delivered by Shein, Temu, Lazada, etc. These do not pass through the BOC, I think.
3. Possible over-valuation by CN exporters.
On the continuing tariff uncertainties of many countries coming from the Trump administration, I still advocate for free trade, unilateral or bilateral. Just drop all tariff to zero, countries can still impose non-tariff barriers for whatever reason as a form of protectionism.
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See also:
Free Trade 73, Trade diversion as consequence of zero or high tariffs, October 26, 2024
Free Trade 74, Trump's tariff reciprocity plan, March 02, 2025
Free Trade 75, West to East shift in global exports, May 30, 2025
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