Even if I know that this kind of research competition is tailored for the climate alarmists and planet saviours, I still joined the competition. My would-be partner in the research project is my PDE classmate and now Ateneo de Manila University, Economics professor Joey Sescon.
To make the story short, our proposal was not accepted. There should be many factors why, including a big number of research contestants who submitted better-written or better-packaged proposals. Anyway, I am posting a portion of the research proposal that I submitted, below.
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How to
Improve Resilience in Facing Global Cooling and Financial Turmoil
I. Research Questions and Background
How much
global cooling can we expect in the coming decades?
Implications
in flooding in the tropics, damages to crops, private properties, public
infrastructures, civilian casualties?
Policy options
both at the micro and household level, and macro and government level?
Background
Over the
past 2,000 years, climate change has shifted from global warming for about six
centuries during the medieval warm period (MWP) to global cooling and a little
ice age (LIA) for about four centuries, and back to warming over the past
century.
Source: Dr. Roy Spencer, presentation at the 2nd
International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC), New York Marriott Hotel,
NYC, March 8-10, 2009.
(Note: The team leader of this paper has attended that
conference, as well as the 4th ICCC held in Chicago, Illinois, May
16-18, 2010)
Since the start of this century, global temperature has
stagnated over the past 15 years, and showed a decline in recent years. Chart
below compares temperature projections (by the UN IPCC, different models) vs. actual
global air temperature, composite for Northern hemisphere + Tropics + Southern
hemisphere, satellite data from 1979 to March 2013, as interpreted and plotted
by the University of Alabama in
Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing System (RSS). The disconnect between
projections (more warming) vs. actual data (stagnation or cooling) is getting
wider.
Source:
Dr. Roy Spencer, Global
Warming Slowdown: The View from Space, April 16th 2013.
And if we
narrow down the reference period over the last 11 years, 2002 to 2013, using
land surface temperature + sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, from HadCRUT3
global mean data, the result is a clear cooling trend.
So as the
planet enters the global cooling phase, we should expect that the frequent
occurrence of heavy rains/snow and flooding in recent years will become even
more frequent and severe that can approximate the LIA several centuries ago. Major
damages to some public and private properties, high crop damages, high casualty
figures from those heavy flooding and brutal winters, can be expected.
This chart
shows that the major financial and human losses since the last decade were due
to severe flooding and strong hurricanes and storms, other than strong earthquakes
and tsunami. Not one major catastrophe was due to severe drought.
Source:
The Economist, March 27th 2013, http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/03/daily-chart-20
Policy Relevance of the
Research
Recognition
of the reality of nature-made global cooling as opposed to anthropogenic global
warming (AGW) or anthropogenic climate change will enable households and
governments to institute more practical and cost-effective policies. Preliminary
recommendations to improve resilience against global cooling and frequent
flooding, test their practicality would include, among others:
·
Households
should avoid living in low-lying areas, or leave those areas and move to higher
elevation. Or if they live in one-storey bungalow houses, consider building a second or even third
floor, to their house.
·
Governments,
national and local, should invest significantly in dredging creeks, rivers and
lakes, big and small, to improve their water catchment capacity. Low lying
areas with few residential structures may be cleared of human settlements, be
dug and converted to water catchments or mini-lakes.
·
Governments
to invest in more boats and amphibian vehicles for quick search and rescue work
during heavy flooding. Public and private drainage system be de-clogged to
minimize street flooding.
·
Subsidies
or higher energy prices for renewables like wind and solar should be reviewed, encourage
cheaper and more stable energy sources that do not require subsidies.
II. Review of Literature
Most
literatures talk about AGW and/or anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Little or
few literatures on natural climate change (NCC) and global cooling are cited or
highlighted in mainstream academic studies. Fortunately, the literature on
global cooling has mushroomed recently. Among the important online sources of
data are:
The book, Climate Change Reconsidered: Report of
the Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2009, Chicago, published by the Heartland
Institute, offers a comprehensive discussion of the physical science basis of
climate change and cycles.
Another
book, Climatism, deals with clarifying certain
misconceptions on climate and human economic activities, and how energy
policies should not be distorted.
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HadCRUt4: revision or revisionism? (May 28, 2013) made this observation:
… On the other side of the account, terrestrial coverage
has declined sharply over recent decades. For this and other reasons, the
HadCRUT4 record takes explicit account of three distinct species of
uncertainty: measurement and sampling, bias, and coverage. Combining the
effects of these three, the 2 σ uncertainty bounds today are
approximately one-sixth of a Celsius degree either side of the central
estimate:
…. The discrepancy between the projections in the IPCC’s Fifth
Assessment Report (red central projection bounded by orange region)
and the outturn in HadCRUT4 (bright blue trend-line) is startling. The
difference between the observed cooling at 0.86 Cº/century and the predicted
warming of 2.33 Cº/century is equivalent to a hefty 3.2 Cº/century.
See also:
Fat-Free Econ 20: Flooding and Global Cooling, August 13, 2012
Climate Tricks 16: On GMST, the Sun, GISS, HadCRU, and Coal, September 04, 2012
Climate Tricks 17: STIKE Forum on CC, October 28, 2012
Climate Tricks 18: Severe Tropical and Winter Storms as Proof of AGW, December 29, 2012 Energy Econ 9: Blowin in the Wind Folly, April 17, 2012
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