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One tool used by the campaigners of “man-made” or
anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and its cousin anthropogenic climate change
(ACC), is to produce various climate models that show only one thing – an ever-rising
global temperature for the planet until 2100 and beyond. Thus, to prevent or
limit that from happening, global energy consumption from fossil fuels that
contribute to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) level in the atmosphere should be
drastically regulated, if not controlled.
How truthful and valid are those UN IPCC climate models’
guesses and projections, that have become basis of many environmental and
energy policies in many countries?
Well, the short answer is that they are largely invalid
and highly exaggerated, when compared to actual data of the planet’s
temperature. For instance, the models projected an average of about 1.0 C
warmer than usual for 2013. But as of end-May 2013, we were only 0.07 C warmer
than usual, and it is a declining trend.
Figure 1.
Temperature projections vs. actual, 1979-2013
Source: Dr. Roy Spencer, EPIC
FAIL: 73 Climate Models vs. Observations for Tropical Tropospheric Temperature,
June 4th 2013
After many governments have poured lots of taxpayers' and
energy consumers' money to wind and solar power around the world for many years
and decades, these renewables have contributed only 0.5 percent and 0.06
percent respectively, to global energy consumption.
Figure 2. World
energy consumption by source, 2010
Source: Total world energy consumption by source 2010, from REN21 Renewables 2012 Global Status Report.
Reposted in WUWT, A LOL ! press release on renewable energy from wishful thinkers at the University of Delaware, December 10, 2012
Why is this so? Table
below provides an explicit answer – the cheapest energy sources are natural
gas, followed by geothermal, hydro, conventional coal, nuclear, and biomass.
The renewables like offshore wind and solar PV and solar thermal remain as
immature technologies that are very costly, and yet are imposed to the people
via additional charges to electricity consumers.
Figure 3.
Estimated levelized cost of new generation resources, US, plants entering service in 2018
(2011
$/megawatthour)
In the Philippines, the Renewable Energy (RE) Act of 2008
(RA 9513) has imposed electricity cost-raising provisions like the feed in
tariff (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS). FIT is additional charge to energy consumers
and given to RE power suppliers, a form of indirect tax. RPS is a system
requiring electricity distributors to source a certain minimum of their energy
supply to come from eligible RE resources.
Below is the rate of more expensive electricity for
Filipino energy consumers. Although rate approved by the ERC is lower than
those proposed by the National Renewable Energy Board (NREB), another
bureaucracy created under RA 9513, these rates will still slam energy consumers
in the country.
Figure 4. FIT for
renewables, Philippines, Pesos per kilowatt hour
NREB Proposed
|
ERC Approved
|
|
Hydro, run of
river
|
6.15
|
5.90
|
Biomass
|
7.00
|
6.63
|
Wind
|
10.37
|
8.53
|
Solar
|
17.95
|
9.68
|
Source: Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), rates
approved July 27, 2012
Climate change is true. Climate changes from warming to
cooling to warming to cooling, in endless, natural cycles. Global warming was
true, it did happen during the Roman period, Medieval Warm Period (MWP), last
century's warming, see again Figure 3 above. Global cooling is also true, it
did happen like during the Little Ice Age (LIA) during the Maundeer Minimum and
Dalton Minimum, and is happening now.
The terms "climate denier" and “global warming denier” are idiotic statements. Climate change is true, warming is over, it is now global cooling. But some people do not want to recognize cooling, only warming. They do not want to recognize "nature made" CC, only "man-made" CC.
So if CC is natural and will happen anyway with or
without humans, with or without SUVs or bicycles, what is the point of the
various “fight CC” bureaucracies, programs and global meetings created by many
governments and the UN?
What governments should do is to recognize the cooling
phase of the planet and thus, prepare for more heavy rains, more debilitating
floods and soil erosion. Once they recognize this, then the most immediate
action is to undertake large-scale dredging of sewerage system, creeks, rivers
and lakes. This will take huge amount of public money, but it is a more useful
public spending than creating more climate bureaucracies and sending many
climate officials to many and frequent global climate junkets.
---------------See also:
Energy Econ 6: Intolerance in Anti-Coal Hysteria, Cadiz Coal Project, September 17, 2012.
Energy Econ 7: Renewables, FIT, RPS and Climate, September 24, 2012
Energy Econ 8: More Intolerance by the Anti-Coal Camp, September 27, 2012
Energy Econ 9: Blowin in the Wind Folly, April 17, 2013
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