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David Campbell
Global Warming Policy Forum, 16 May 2016
… there has been no departure from China’s policy of
expansion of coal-fired generation capacity, and the rate of installation
continues at the astronomical rates. China was responsible for 80% of the
entire world’s increase in coal consumption this century and now consumes as
much coal as the rest of the world combined. Coal-fired capacity has increased
by 10% since 2013, and in 2015 approval was given for 155 new coal plants which
themselves will have a capacity more than twice Germany’s entire capacity....
Chinese power generation is overwhelmingly dominated by
fossil fuels, which accounts for 90% of capacity, coal itself accounting for
67%. Renewables account for the remainder, with this 10% being dominated by the
8% of hydro. Nuclear is 1%, solar and wind 1%. It is obvious from these facts
that the great growth in solar is possible only because the growth starts from
a very small base, though such is the absolute size of the Chinese economy that
this tiny fraction of its capacity is very large by comparison to other
countries’ solar industries. Even leaving aside the question of how much the
Chinese renewables industry is directed towards export, it is equally obvious
that even the current great growth in solar can have only a small marginal
impact on the Chinese energy mix. It is justifiable to claim that China plans
to raise the share of renewables in the energy mix to 20% by 2030, of which
solar will provide a small fraction, and to cap coal at less than 62.5%. But it
is preposterous to claim that this represents a movement from coal to solar
that has any real significance for global emissions.
In brief, the planned shift in the energy mix cannot
possibly represent peak coal because it is part of a plan to absolutely
increase coal-fired generation. Yet again, the concept of carbon intensity is
causing dreadful confusion. Even if this shift (and the installation of new
fossil fuel plant) lowers carbon intensity, this will be brought about, not in
reversal of, but in the course of continued growth in Chinese power generation
and therefore of coal-fired generation. There is simply no possibility, other
an unforeseen economic catastrophe or a technological miracle, that Chinese
coal consumption will not grow by absolute amounts that are astronomical by
western standards, and to a concomitant rise in emissions….
China’s strategic target, restated in its statement to
the UNFCCC Secretariat of its Independent Nationally Determined Contribution,
is to create ‘a moderately prosperous society’. Under the current Five Year
Plan, this is to involve doubling 2010 gdp and per capita income by 2020, which
will be made possible by a concomitant increase in power generation, with 2010
energy consumption expected to double by 2030. Even accepting that the share of
renewables in the energy mix will double and that of coal decrease by 5%,
elementary arithmetic shows that coal-fired generation will itself almost
absolutely double. Let us give overall power generation the value of 100, of
which 90 is fossil fuels (67 coal) and 10 is renewables, and then add another
100, of which 20 is renewables and therefore 80 is fossil fuel (62.5 coal). The
shift to renewables has but the smallest impact on an absolute growth of fossil
fuels to 170 and coal to 129.5….
It remains only to add that nothing has been said here
about the position of India, which in 2014 overtook the US as the world’s
second largest coal consumer.
Dr David Campbell is Professor of Law at Lancaster
University Law School
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Pierre Gosselin
No Tricks Zone, 21 May 2016
The more volatile supply wind and solar energy that comes
online in Germany, the more insane the market prices become. Too often the wind
blows and the sun shines when power is unneeded, or they are simply AWOL when
demand is high like in the wintertime.
Germany’s wildly fluctuating wind and solar energy are
creating grid and market havoc.
Source: Agora.
Earlier this month Germany saw a spate of both sunny,
windy days, thus leading to huge power grid surges during the Ascension holiday
weekend, a time when many factories were running close to idled (see chart
above).
Despite billions annually in subsidies, wind and sun
still puny
And for a few minutes last Pentecost Monday afternoon – a
holiday that saw very low national electricity demand – wind and solar provided
almost enough power to cover all of the country’s electricity needs, reported
Die Welt here. Leading Greens cheered, and proclaimed that coal and nuclear had
not been needed for a time. But they cheered “too early” writes Die Welt’s
business journalist Daniel Wetzel, pointing out that market and technical
conditions became dangerously precarious and that in total “electricity
represents only 21% of Germany’s total energy need.”
While Germany’s installed solar and wind energy may be
able to get fairly close to fulfilling total electricity demand for a few
minutes in rare instances that weather and demand conditions are just right,
their share of total primary energy is still depressingly measly. Die Welt puts
it all in true perspective:
“Despite billions
in subsidies, ‘renewable energies’ wind and sun covered only 3.7% of Germany’s
primary energy needs last year.”
Negative wholesale prices becoming rampant
Another debilitating feature of the weather-dependent
renewable energies are the havoc they create on the electricity exchanges. Last
week’s power grid overloading by wind and sun led to deep negative wholesale
prices.
Spiegel here writes that the wholesale power price
plummeted to -130 euros per megawatt (see blue curve in the right chart)! Literally,
foreign consumers were being paid to take the power. (The black curve shows
total German demand).
Moreover the phenomenon of negative wholesale prices
(i.e. excessive power feeding uncontrollably into the grid) occurred a record
25 times in 2015, Spiegel writes. That was 4 times more often than in 2011.
Among the highest electricity prices in the world
With wholesale electricity prices dipping into negative
territory, one might think that power must be very cheap for the consumer.
Unfortunately this is not the case. At negative prices power companies lose
money, and so are then forced to pass along these extra costs along to the end
consumers. German consumers are paying close to €0.30 for each kilowatt-hour
they consume – among the highest in the world.
The situation has gotten so alarming that leading
politicians of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU conservative party are now
demanding an end to subsidies for new wind and solar installations.
Denmark slams brakes on wind projects
Not only Germany is struggling with wildly fluctuating
grid and market conditions, which are leading to massive costs and pain for
consumers, but so is Denmark. Die Welt writes:
“The situation has
also led wind energy leader Denmark to a rethinking. Press reports say that
Energy Minister Lars Christian Lilleholt has stopped the planned construction
of five large offshore wind farms in order to protect consumers from large cost
increases.”
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See also:
See also:
Energy 46, Dominance of coal power worldwide, October 31, 2015
Energy 57, Tony la Vina's anti-coal alarmism, February 06, 2016
Energy 65, World Bank's anti-coal drama, May 08, 2016
Energy 66, What companies receive FIT and by how much? May 21, 2016
Energy 66, What companies receive FIT and by how much? May 21, 2016
Energy 67, Helios solar power in Cadiz City, Negros Occ., May 28, 2016
Fat-Free Econ 16: Coal, Climate and Government, July 17, 2012
BWorld 39, Coal and renewables complement each other, January 26, 2016
