Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Energy 43, My paper on climate change and cheaper electricity at EPDP Conf. 2016

My paper abstract has been accepted for presentation in an international energy conference here in Manila, January next year. Happy me :-)

Then I can present in a conference why climate change is natural (nature-made, not man-made) and cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-cooling). And preparing for global cooling phase, we need cheap, un-subsidized, not over-taxed, stable and reliable (available 24/7) energy sources.

Global cooling is more brutal, more deadly than global warming phase. Frequent rising rivers, creeks, lakes and street flood, not rising ocean. Outdoor agriculture and crops will be more exposed to these threats, many farmers will shift to greenhouse and hydroponics farming, indoor cattle growing, fish tank aquaculture, etc. Then there will be higher demand for electricity, cheaper electricity, available 24 hours, 365 days and nights a year.

Here is a portion of my Abstract that was accepted:

Climate Change and the Need for Cheap and Stable Energy Sources


Climate changes from warming to cooling to warming to cooling, in endless natural cycle. A period of global warming for decades is followed by a period of global cooling, lasting also for decades.

Source: Dr. Roy Spencer, Senate EPW Hearing: “Climate Change: It’s Happened Before”, July 19th 2013.

People can adjust and adapt better under global warming phase as extended drought can be combated by drip irrigation and other innovations in modern agriculture. People in temperate countries prosper more in periods of warmer months as they can grow more food and other agricultural crops.

Global cooling is more dangerous, more fatal, as it is associated with more frequent rains and flooding, longer period and more brutal winter in the temperate countries. Damages to crops, houses, roads and various public infrastructure facilities are high....

The paper will discuss some important data on the climate change debate, briefly review the experiences of UK, Germany and other European economies in their heavy push and various subsidies to renewables like wind and solar.

Relevant and more realistic policy proposals about the future energy mix of the Philippines, energy taxation and regulations, will be explored. 

Conference details here, in case you guys are interested,

Among the international plenary speakers will be
1. Frank A. Wolak, Stanford University
2. James Roumasset, University of Hawaii
3. Ujjayant Chakravorty, Tufts University
4. Mark Rosegrant, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI),
+ other foreign speakers to be confirmed (TBC).

There are many local economists and energy leaders who will speak too. 

Many friends were happy to see that letter when  I posted it in my fb wall yesterday. Thanks guys. It will be a big conference, registration fee, already subsidized by USAID, will be $133 or P6,000. As a paper presenter, I won't pay (makakatipid :-)) and will have a good opportunity to share my views and data to the participants -- and be grilled by questions, hehe. But I know this subject well, so am not scared.

Good comment from a friend, Selwyn Clyde M. Alojipan:

Congrats, Nonoy. Here's another side issue about CO2 as a greenhouse gas: Excess CO2 is supposed to be absorbed most by the oceans as carbonic acid (H2CO3) and they say this would make the oceans more acidic (ooohh, scary!). However, carbonic acid easily becomes bicarbonate (HCO3-) and carbonate (CO3--) ions that can form chalk (CaCO3)---or sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3)---that are converted by corals and mollusks into their exoskeletons (reefs and seashells). Why are some people so very scared that excess CO2 will make the oceans so acidic it will make the reefs die (?) when excess carbonate will help the reefs build their exoskeletons faster and the zooxanthellae algae embedded within coral tissue will have higher and faster photosynthesis (due to the more abundant CO2) that gives the corals more energy to convert carbonate ions into reefs? Some people are scaring themselves with half-baked scenarios and models that haven't been tested yet.

See also: 

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Free Trade 55, TPP Agreement, finally

Finally, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement will become a reality soon. The final language and texts will take a few more weeks, but the deal has been reached among  the original 12 member-economies. Next stage will be ratification by each country, especially in the US Congress.

The Philippines is not in the original 12 TPP countries but will soon in the second wave of signatories. I support the PH to become a TPP member too. There are risks and "losses" but there are greater opportunities and benefits. Overall, there will be "net gain" (positives outweigh the negatives) from freer trade, there is net gain in joining the TPP. This graphics from the NYT

Compared to the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) or the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership  (RCEP, ASEAN 10 + 6 regular partners China, Japan, S. Korea, India, Australia and NZ) or APEC, the TPP is considered a "gold standard" in regional and multilateral trade agreements because of certain provisions that reaffirm private property rights, like IPR. At the WTO and UN, there are certain agreements that attempt to negate those private property protection, like an elaborate system of TRIPS flexibilities.

The usual fear and objection to TPP is that "big pharma to squash generics, or equivalent knock-offs of high priced drugs." So TPP "works to protect big pharma at the expense of patients in the developing world."

It is a big misconception that patent for newly-invented drugs apply even to old, off-patent, generic drugs. No. For instance, amlodipine molecule (against hypertension) is already off-patent. Any generic manufacturer, thousands of them worldwide, can make their own brand of amlodipine and sell at the lowest price they can afford or endure due to heavy competition. In the PH for instance, I think there are about 200 different brands of amlodipine generics alone. Any TPP or similar agreement will not affect these generics.

If another company produces another molecule against hypertension with a different property, say effective for patients with hypertension + diabetes + asthma and so on, the patent applies only to that newly-invented, patented molecule.
People refer to compulsory licensing (CL), a provision in the TRIPS flexibilities in the WTO which signatory countries respect, in advocating for certain types of patent confiscation. Opposition to TPP is generally misplaced and driven by emotions.

"Why is big pharma such a big supporter of TPP?" some ask. Well, big innovator pharma and big generics pharma support the TPP. Generic manufacturers in Vietnam and Malaysia can soon export their products big time to the US, Canada, markets that are otherwise protected due to high health, sanitary, technical barriers. 

A friend, Bruce Hall, made this useful observation:

Corporations in general want consistency so that they can plan and invest. If one does not know what is happening from one year to the next when it comes to patent law or importation rules or what-have-you then one cannot know if one will get the investment back. TPP provides a single set of rules across a large portion of the planet that is not subject to the whims of politics. It is likely that big pharma supports TPP so that same reason that other exporters support it -- more markets.

TPP has actually led to the US agreeing to patent rules more in line with other countries' rules. See

TPP will not be the end of patent fights. Ultimately the fate of patents will lie within American politics. While outside pressure will help around the edges (see the linked article), patent law in the US will only be changed when US politics changes (which it constantly is). Unfortunately, too many domestic US pressure groups are using TPP to push their own agenda. We should not be swayed by such efforts. TPP is about building an international system based upon the rule of law and free trade that is flexible enough to address whatever changes will occur within global economics

Besides, many people who attack "big pharma" (referring to  the big multinational pharma) do not realize that in  many economies, they unknowingly attack big generic pharma. In the PH for instance, the big, huge, monster pharma here is not a multinational and innovator, but a local, generic pharma, United Laboratories (Unilab). It's annual gross sales is 1/4 of the total PH pharma market, and bigger than the combined sales of #s 2, 3 and 4 (Pfizer, GSK, another multinational).

For free marketers, the best trade arrangement is unilateral trade liberalization, least involvement and restrictions by governments in voluntary trade and exchange among people and private enterprises. Since this is far out from happening, a regional and multilateral FTA is the second-best solution.

See also:

Sunday, October 04, 2015

TIME mag. on global warming (3)

Another collection of "be worried, be very worried" headlines by TIME magazine, from the web.

And these, dated May 27, 2014 and  October 01, 2015.

Large scale famine? Hehehe, old alarmism claim. Here are actual data and why such alarmist claims are plain alarmism. The truth is that global food production keeps rising, food prices on average are becoming more affordable, there is greater food security in the planet than before.  It is not possible to have a rising global population if there are frequent huge food riots in many countries -- something that exists only in the minds of the food conspiracy theorists.

source: Dr. Roy Spencer, “Peak Food”? No, the Average Person Has More Food to Eat, January 29th, 2015.

Meanwhile, here's a chart on CO2 emission and global temperature "linkage" and "causality". Green line is global CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, now at 400+ parts per million (ppm) and the "safe" level for the planet according to, WWF, Greenpeace, etc. is only 350 ppm or lower. Red line is the best fit line for global air temperature, average for UAH and RSS satellite data, January 2002 to September 2015. It is -0.02 C per decade.


As CO2 concentration rises, global temperature declines, and there is "causality" and "direct linkage"? The climate alarmists are joking.

See also:

TIME mag. on global warming (2)

These pictures and headlines from TIME magazine somehow summarizes their confusion: less rain or more rain, less snow or more snow, less storms or more storms, less cats or more cats, they are all proof of "man-made" global warming or climate change. From the cooling of the 70s to the warming of the 90s and back to the cooling in recent years (except the 2010 and 2015 El Nino), they are all proof of global warming, and of more severe warming the coming years and decades. See the original picture and dozens of comments here, Time Magazine and Global Warming.

In January 11, 2011 (1-11-11), the US mainland was nearly 70 percent covered with snow.

Global cooling is more dangerous, more fatal, than global warming. Many people in the Northern Hemisphere are praying and wishing that man-made warming was true and not fiction. These 3 pictures are from yahoo news.

My sister and her 2 kids went to Florida in early 2011. They complained that they never expected below zero C temperature in the supposedly warm state of America and so, they brought thin jackets. But they were lucky nonetheless, they were not battered by severe snowstorms that caused many flight cancellations, stranded cars, buses and trains, in the middle to northern states.

The drama and lunacy associated with climate alarmism continues. Ahh, there are huge and endless global climate junkets to enjoy for the leaders of the AGW movement. There are trillions of dollars of climate money to collect, redistribute and centrally plan.

Ok, here's the latest global air temperature data, from the Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and Dr. Spencer, as of September 2015. There is cooling trend in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, but continued warming in the tropics due to the current El Nino.

Global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 9 months:

2015 1 +0.28 +0.40 +0.16 +0.13
2015 2 +0.18 +0.30 +0.05 -0.06
2015 3 +0.17 +0.26 +0.07 +0.05
2015 4 +0.09 +0.18 -0.01 +0.10
2015 5 +0.29 +0.36 +0.21 +0.28
2015 6 +0.33 +0.41 +0.25 +0.46
2015 7 +0.18 +0.33 +0.03 +0.48
2015 8 +0.28 +0.25 +0.30 +0.52
2015 9 +0.25 +0.14 +0.17 +0.55

TIME mag. on global warming (1)

TIME magazine seems to be among the loudest climate alarmist media around the world. Like this cover story in April 2006: be VERY worried, wow. When ice cover in the Arctic goes down, a phenomenon that happens every year and reaches its lowest level of around 4 million sq. kms. during September to October, we should be worried. When Arctic ice recovers a few months after, reaching its peak of around 14 million sq. kms. of ice during March to April every year, either TIME and other warming fanatics are silent or they will say that we should be worried still, as more ice is still part of global warming.

See for instance how they explain the 3 consecutive severe winter in Europe and North America -- lack of ice in the Arctic due to global warming causes a "blocking" of the warm jetstream, so that very cold Arctic wind blows to the south. More cold is due to global warming. Nice logic.

A satellite picture of Arctic ice, January 9, 2010. Data is from Is this a picture of an "ever-melting Arctic ice" that many warming fanatics propagate?

Another front cover by TIME. Its lead warming author, Bryan Walsh, gives the lead story, "How to win the war on global warming." Man-made warming, unequivocal warming, unstoppable climate change, global climate disruption. The terms evolve but the central goal remains the same: global ecological central planning.

Mr. Walsh produced another headline-hugging article, Climate: Unstoppable Global Warming
Posted by Bryan Walsh Monday, January 10, 2011.

two papers published over the weekend in Nature Geoscience show that the very length of climatological time can frustrate our efforts to slow global warming—assuming we can begin to do that. In one paper, a group of Canadian researchers decided to see how the climate system might react over the next hundreds of years if greenhouse gas emissions kept rising to a high level until 2100, and then were zeroed out....

by the year 3000 half the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere before 2100 would still be there, and global average temperatures that rose by some 3.5 C would as we kept emitting greenhouse gases would stay roughly at that level, even after the emissions ended. But that's just the global average—Antarctica would become much hotter, adding an additional 9 C after 2100.

We have to wait 1,000 years, or 1 million years, for it to happen. Meanwhile, we should remain worried and scared.

For us in East Asia, here's the latest sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of Pacific Ocean's Nino region 3.4. Current El Nino is indeed big and warm, but it's not so alarming, El Nino of 2009-2010 and 2002-2003 were of similar magnitude. But notice the deep La Nina cooling after  those big El Nino. Meaning that after this high warming phase, we expect a deep cooling phase.


Terrible global warming.

Liberty Notes from Larry Reed (3)

Continuation of useful quotes from Lawrence "Larry" Reed, President of the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) in the US. Posted in his facebook wall in 2013.

Photos below -- 1st row: Larry Reed, Friedrich Hayek; 2nd row: Ludwig von Mises, Franklin D. Roosevelt; 3rd row: Thomas Szasz, Rand Paul.

Government is awful at fighting poverty. That's because its expertise is in fighting prosperity. And it ought to be small enough that you have to go looking for it, instead of it always looking for you.
-- Lawrence Reed

There is all the difference in the world between treating people equally and attempting to make them equal. While the first is the condition of a free society, the second means as De Tocqueville describes it, 'a new form of servitude.
-- F. A. Hayek

The interventionists do not approach the study of economic matters with scientific disinterestedness. Most of them are driven by an envious resentment against those whose incomes are larger than their own. This bias makes it impossible for them to see things as they really are. For them the main thing is not to improve the conditions of the masses, but to harm the entrepreneurs and capitalists even if this policy victimizes the immense majority of the people.
-- Ludwig von Mises

Any government, like any family, can for a year spend a little more than it earns. But you and I know that a continuation of that habit means the poorhouse.
-- Franklin D. Roosevelt, presidential candidate in 1932, campaigning against deficit spending, high taxes and tariffs and excessive bureaucracy

Punishment is now unfashionable...because it creates moral distinctions among men, which, to the democratic mind, are odious. We prefer a meaningless collective guilt to a meaningful individual responsibility.
-- Thomas Szasz, author, psychiatrist.

Foreign aid goes from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.
– Senator Rand Paul.

One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can vent their emotions, question other people's motives, make bold assertions, repeat slogans--anything except reason.
-- Thomas Sowell, economist who also wrote, "Intellectuals may like to think of themselves as people who 'speak truth to power' but too often they are people who speak lies to gain power."

The practical reason for freedom is that freedom seems to be the only condition under which any kind of substantial moral fiber can be developed—we have tried law, compulsion and authoritarianism of various kinds, and the result is nothing to be proud of.
-- Albert Jay Nock

How should it happen that the individual should be without rights, but the combination of individuals should possess unlimited rights?
-- Auberon Herbert, the original philosopher of "voluntaryism"

Half of the harm that is done in this world is due to people who want to feel important...They are absorbed in the endless struggle to think well of themselves.
-- T. S. Eliot.

There can be only one permanent revolution—a moral one; the regeneration of the inner man. How is this revolution to take place? Nobody knows how it will take place in humanity, but every man feels it clearly in himself. And yet in our world everybody thinks of changing humanity, and nobody thinks of changing himself.
-- Russian author Leo Tolstoy

Why doesn't everybody leave everybody else the hell alone?
 -- Jimmy Durante.

To put the world right, we must first put the nation right; to put the nation right we must first put the family right; to put the family right we must first cultivate our personal life and do that we must put our hearts right.
-- Confucius.

It’s been easier to convince people to hand over half their income, their children to war, & their freedoms in perpetuity - than to engage them in seriously considering how roads might function in the absence of taxation.
-- ~Stefan Molyneux~
(Quote posted by Christopher Lingle)

Liberty Notes from Larry Reed (2)

More notes on liberty, self reliance, personal responsibility, and a few funny quotes, from the facebook wall of Lawrence "Larry" W. Reed of the FEE, in 2011-2012.

"It will take America fifteen years of steadily taking care of our own business and letting everybody else's alone, to get us back to where everybody speaks to us again" -- humorist Will Rogers, in a prophetic comment from seven or eight decades ago.

"The trade of governing has always been monopolized by the most ignorant and the most rascally individuals of mankind" -- Thomas Paine.

(With Larry and some batchmates during the Mackinac Leadership Conference, mid-April 2004, Michigan. Kendra Shrode, a Mackinac staff, 3rd from right))

"One of the qualities of liberty is that, as long as it is being striven after, it goes on expanding. Therefore, the man who stands in the midst of the struggle and says, 'I have it,' merely shows by doing so that he has just lost it" -- 19th Century playwright and poet Henrik Ibsen.

"Compared with the totality of knowledge which is continually utilized in the evolution of a dynamic civilization, the difference between the knowledge that the wisest and that which the most ignorant individual can deliberately employ is comparatively insignificant" -- F. A. Hayek, who also wrote that "...the case for individual freedom rests largely on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievements of our ends and welfare depend."

"A society that puts equality ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality nor freedom" -- Milton Friedman.

Liberty Notes from Larry Reed (1)

Updating the "Liberty Notes from Larry Reed", taken from Lawrence/Larry's facebook wall statu in 2012.

Larry is the President of the Foundation for Economic Education (, a big free market think in the US. He used to be the President of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy (, also a free market think tank based in Midlands, Michigan. He moved to FEE to do a bigger job in promoting liberty across America and the rest of the world as Mackinac is concerned more with policy issues in Michigan.

I first met him in Michigan when I attended the Mackinac Leadership Conference in mid-April 2004, when I was given an international fellows scholarship by the Atlas Economic Research Foundation ( in the US. It was a one month training, exposure and meetings with many free market leaders in the US and other parts of the world. It was also my first trip to the US :-)

With Larry and some batchmates during the Mackinac Leadership Conference.

Below are quotes from various thinkers that Larry posted in his fb wall in January 2012. I did not include wall posts with links.

I will post more liberty notes and quotes from him in this blog in the coming days and weeks. Meanwhile, enjoy these erudite ideas (and some funny quotes) from him and from various thinkers in the past.

"Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?" -- Robert Orben.

"When I was a boy I was told that anybody could become President; now I'm beginning to believe it" -- Clarence Darrow.

"We must pity the poor wretched, timid soul who is too faint-hearted to resist his oppressors. He sings the song of the dammed: 'I can’t fight back; I have too much to lose; I own too much property; I have worked too hard to get what I have; They will put me out of business if I resist; I might go to jail; I have my family to think about.' Such poor miserable creatures have misplaced values and are hiding their cowardice behind pretended family responsibility--blindly refusing to see that the most glorious legacy that one can bequeath to posterity is liberty; and that the only true security is liberty" -- Marvin Cooley.

"Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage" -- H. L. Mencken.

"It takes less time to do a thing right than it does to explain why you did it wrong" -- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.

"Socialism, like the ancient ideas from which it springs, confuses the distinction between government and society. As a result of this, every time we object to a thing being done by government, the socialists conclude that we object to its being done at all" -- Frederic Bastiat, author of "The Law."