Monday, July 03, 2017

Energy 97, Solar can replace coal power in the PH?

There is a funny claim by the President of Solar Philippines, also son of Sen. Loren Legarda, Leandro Leviste. Reported in BWorld today.

Look at his claim: solar at P5.39/kWh vs average generation cost from different sources at P8.17/kWh.

These numbers seem like jokes. Here’s why.

1. The average generation charges of Meralco were P4.85/kWh in May and P4.37/kWh in June 2017, which already includes the more expensive peaking plants. These are almost half of Mr. Leviste’s P8.17/kWh data. Where did he get that number, perhaps from one of the inefficient electric cooperatives in the country?

See table below. These power plants are mostly coal and natural gas. #7 “Others” are mostly peaking plants from TMO, Panay, Toledo and 1590 Energy Corp., see their low dispatch rate of 13.3% and low energy share of only 1.4% of total, meaning they run only during peak hours, few hours a day.

2. Mr. Leviste’s P5.39/kWh solar price is cool, if true. Because solar feed in tariff (FIT) or guaranteed price for 20 years is almost double that price. Solar plants that were granted FIT in 2015 would be getting P10.26/kWh this 2017.

3. Solar has low capacity factor, only about 18% (about 36% day time, zero at night time). When it’s day time but cloudy and raining, solar output will be low, capacity factor below 30%. If the solar plant will divert part of this for storage in battery so that it can produce power at night, then the already low solar output will become even lower. Plus the cost of huge batteries, they can quickly raise the price of solar to perhaps 2x of what Mr. Leviste claims.

So to answer the question in the title, the quick answer is NO. Intermittent, expensive solar energy can not replace stable, predictable and cheaper energy like coal and natgas. 

Government should step back from price control in energy via assured, guaranteed high price for solar-wind-biomass-ror hydro. Also step back from priority and mandatory feed of variable renewables like wind-solar in the grid that contributes to grid instability due to intermittent, easy-come-easy-go energy sources.

See also:

Sunday, July 02, 2017

Climate Tricks 62, Climate religionism of Arcy Garcia

Some people have deep faith in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) or "man-made only" warming and climate change (CC), deep faith like religion. Natural global warming-global cooling cycles, or nature-made warming and CC is taboo for them, no such thing, it violates their religion and will never never accept it even if hard data and graphs are in front of them.

Among such climate religionists is Arcy Garcia. Arcy is a friend way back in the late 80s when I was still a socialist. While we have some similar beliefs like respect for human rights and opposition to Du30's no-due-process, no rule of law and violent drugs war, his socialist and anti-capitalist angsts prevail. A typical anti-capitalist ideologue who super-enjoys facebook capitalism, youtube capitalism, google and internet capitalism, etc.

What he does, he would tag me in fb arguing the usual UN-Al Gore hypothesis that AGW is so scary-alarming-worrying-frankensteining and the only solution is more UN, more governments to control, over-regulate and over-tax and later on kill fossil fuels, and they can "fight CC".

Initially I engaged him, then he would run away when faced with dozens of paleo-climate data dating back to tens of thousands or millions of years ago. Then after a few days or weeks, he would tag me again and argue the same AGW alarmism and so I would show him again lots of hard data, paleo-climate data showing that global warming is not unprecedented, there were many precedents of GW.

I would ask him and other climate alarmists of these simple questions, and they would have zero answer, or the usual sound of silence.

1. Planet Earth is 4.6 billion years old, when was the time, what period, that there was NO climate change?

2. What was it like before this "man-made" warming/CC -- less rain, no rain, more rains? less flood, no flood, more floods? less snow, no snow, more snow?

3. Of the recent global warming from the mid-1800s to roughly the last decade, how much of it was man-made vs nature-made? 100-0? 80-20? 51-49?

Then he would run away. And repeat the process --> tag, argue briefly, run away; tag, argue briefly, run away.

Today, he did the same, posting this.

I advised and reminded him of his lousy style. He can continue his climate religionism and alarmism in his own wall, sure he has many follower-climate religionists who will cheer him. But he puts it again in my wall with the usual plan to run away when confronted with hard data, so I told him of his climate kaduwagan at kabobohan (climate stupidity and cowardice).

I asked him again just one question -- Planet Earth is 4.6 billion years old, when was the time, what period, that there was NO climate change?

His slippery answer, “Masyadong malayo 4b years. Mas kapani paniwala yung unti unting pag atras.”

Palusot pero hindi lusot. There is data for 4+ billion years but he won't accept it because it disproves their religion -- that there was no previous CC, no warming precedents, "this GW and CC is unprecedented" they argue. 

More data here, Zero discussion, just dozens of charts and data and their sources.

After this, I am sure that whenever he finds another alarmist article, he will post it again in my fb wall, then he will run away again.

But then again, AGW is religion, based on faith and belief. People who believe in a God do not ask for charts or graphs or tables or equations, they just have faith, simple. This is AGW religionism, "man-made CC only" religion and cultism. And they use governments, the UN, the foreign aid like WB and ADB, for their religion. And vice versa, governments-UN-foreign aid use the religion to extract more political power, more global ecological central planning, more multi-trillion dollars climate money from taxpayers and energy consumers so they can "save the planet."

See also:
Climate Tricks 59, Trump's climate advisor to reverse US government alarmism, January 20, 2017 
Climate Tricks 60, Alarmism by the socialists and global ecological central planners, January 28, 2017 

Climate Tricks 61, Hysteria and tantrums over Trump's withrawal from Paris Agreement, June 02, 2017