The US' public debt should touch $40 trillion next week, already $39.9 trillion last Thursday.
The quagmire that Trump has entered in the Middle East will tie up more US military and public spending for months to come.
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See also:
Sunday, August 16, 2026
Fiscal Irresponsibility 42, US debt and budget deficit
BWorld 877, On inflation, an ERC resolution, and CBK
On inflation, an ERC resolution, and CBK
June 23, 2026 | 12:02 am
My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/06/23/758319/on-inflation-an-erc-resolution-and-cbk/
There is good news this week: gasoline prices are set to decline by P3.90 to P5.90 per liter, with diesel prices to decrease by P9.04 to P11.04 per liter, as announced by the Department of Energy (DoE) yesterday. We need energy prices to lessen some more to control the country’s rising inflation.
Our average inflation of 6% in January-May was much higher than the 3.8% and 1.9% over the same months in 2024 and 2025, respectively. In East and South Asia, only Pakistan and Bangladesh have had higher inflation than the Philippines.
Central Banks or monetary authorities respond normally to rising inflation by raising their interest rates to help protect the domestic currency from further depreciation and to help dampen inflation pressure. Our 4.75% is the 5th highest in the region, after Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Indonesia (see Table 1).
There have also been some important developments in the local energy sector.
The DoE announced with some optimism last week that power conditions in the Visayas Grid are expected to significantly improve next month. In Iloilo, the Panay Energy Development Corp. (PEDC) unit 3 (which produces 150 megawatts) is set to resume operations by July 3. In Cebu, the two units of Therma Visayas, Inc. (TVI), which each produce 169 megawatts, are currently under repair, and it will soon have a third unit which is currently under construction.
NEW ERC RESOLUTION
The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) announced last Friday a new ERC Resolution establishing the “Implementing Rules for the Development, Ownership, and Operation of Point-to-Point Limited Transmission Facilities and for the Financing and Construction of Transmission Projects by Entities Other than the Transmission Network Provider.”
The resolution says that entities other than the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) will be allowed to finance and construct projects identified by the DoE as Associated Transmission Projects (ATPs) or Priority Projects that include new transmission lines, substations, switchyards, and other facilities to accommodate additional power generation capacity and strengthen the country’s transmission network. Philippineseconomic data
This is a good move by the ERC, but it should be noted that system operation, connection to the grid, rules on dispatch or non-dispatch to the grid, are still done by the NGCP.
I think a good example is the Davao City-Samal power interconnection project, with the laying of a submarine cable in the Pakiputan Strait done last March by Aboitiz Power (AP) through its distribution utility, Davao Light and Power Co. Cable terminal stations were also constructed at both shore ends. The 69-kilovolt project will bring power network stability and support the growing load requirements of Samal and brighten the economic potential of Samal’s population of 120,000 (2024 Census).
IMPLIED CAPACITY
Meanwhile, the rainy season is here, and a new storm this week will pour a lot of rain in many provinces. Hydropower plants will have more water in their reservoirs.
Given this, I decided to compute the implied capacity factor (ICF) of each energy source in the Philippines with this basic formula: ICF = (Generation in GWh) / (24 hours/day x 365 days x installed capacity in GW) x 100.
Last year had a bad La Niña, with too many cloudy and rainy days and too many storms, so hydro output and ICF were high while solar output and ICF were low, at only 15%. Oil-based power plants had the lowest ICF, only 2%, because they are used mainly as peaking plants — they run only for a few days and weeks in a year (see Table 2).
Solar energy has seen fast growth in installed capacity but low ICF, meaning this is more dangerous because of grid instability. Pumped hydro storage (PHS) plants help address this problem.
The CBK (Caliraya-Botocan-Kalayaan) plant in Laguna is the largest PHS in the country with a capacity of 797 megawatts. It was privatized by PSALM last year and the winning bidder was Thunder Consortium (Aboitiz Power, Sumitomo Corp., and Japan Power) which offered a high bid of P36.3 billion. CBK turnover to the consortium was done last February, led by President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. and Energy Secretary Sharon Garin.
The Finance department saw not very big non-tax revenue from privatization proceeds — only P3.3 billion in 2024, P2 billion in 2025, and P0.7 billion from January to April this year. When the full P36.3 billion from CBK is reflected, the Finance department’s privatization revenues will jump high.
CBK utilization should rise this rainy season for three reasons. One, hydro works harder as many baseload coal and gas plants hold their regular maintenance shutdowns during the wet season. Two, the Malampaya gas field is also under maintenance shutdown, from June 15 to July 15. Three, there is the need to export more power to the Visayas Grid while the yellow alerts persist.
Weekend Fun 86, Cayetano siblings in the Senate
Some political memes in the Philippines Senate few months ago, enjoy.
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See also:
Weekend Fun 83, Academic lessons on Mother's day, May 14, 2023
Weekend Fun 84, More Father's day jokes, June 18, 2023
Weekend Fun 84, More Father's day jokes, June 18, 2023
Weekend Fun 85, Climate "emergency", July 09, 2023.
Energy 188, Climate and UK, Spain energy
Some old news on the subject.
1. UK energy and climate
Net zero race ‘risks blackouts and higher bills’
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/net-zero-blackouts-bills-national-grid-z88zz3l8v
Britain’s airlines face £400m bill to hit green fuel targets
Rules requiring carriers to use virtually unobtainable renewable substance costing millions
Christopher Jasper, 22 June 2026
Air conditioning torn from homes under net zero clampdown
Climate change regulations prioritised despite soaring temperatures
Robert White, 24 June 2026
JOB FEARS Scotland’s oil & gas industry being ‘demolished’ as stark jobs warning issued
Committee members also blasted the windfall tax on oil and gas energy profits
Conor Matchett 24 Oct 2025
Economist behind Ed Miliband's promise to cut Brits' energy bills by £300 admits savings could be 'wiped out' by rising electricity costs
By GREG HEFFER, 23 October 2025
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15219789/Economist-Ed-Milibands-promise-cut-Brits-energy-bills-300-admits-savings-wiped-rising-electricity-costs.html
BP and JERA Abandon U.S. Offshore Wind Project Amid Policy Shift
Irina Slav October 22, 2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-jera-abandon-u-offshore-071500485.html
Green levies to blame for rising energy bills, say suppliers
UK’s biggest gas and electricity providers urge ministers to address ballooning net zero costs
Matt Oliver, Jonathan Leake 16 October 2025
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/16/green-levies-are-to-blame-for-rising-energy-bills/
Energy debt hits eight-year high ahead of winter
The amount customers owe their supplier has increased by nearly 30% in the past year.
Energy debt hits eight-year high ahead of winteriStock
Danyel VanReenen, Oct 15th, 2025
https://news.stv.tv/politics/energy-debt-hits-eight-year-high-ahead-of-winter
Energy bills likely to rise by 20% in next four years, says Britain’s biggest supplier
MPs told that even if wholesale prices plummet, consumers face higher bills owing to costs of government policies
Jillian Ambrose 15 Oct 2025
Claire Coutinho: Energy is prosperity
October 6, 2025
https://www.conservatives.com/news/energy-is-prosperity
Boris Johnson: I went too far, too fast on net zero
Former prime minister believes he got ‘carried away’ by the idea of renewable energy sources
Gordon Rayner 05 October 2025
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/10/05/boris-johnson-too-far-too-fast-net-zero/
Investors beware: The Net Zero consensus is dead
By: Andrew Montford 03 October 2025
https://www.cityam.com/investors-beware-the-net-zero-consensus-is-dead/
‘It’s unsustainable’: homes in Great Britain brace for winter with soaring energy debts
As typical annual dual-fuel charge rises to £1,755, charities warn over record £4.4bn owed to suppliers
Britons preparing to ration energy as Ofgem price cap rises, says charity
Jillian Ambrose 1 Oct 2025
Britain paying highest electricity prices in the world as net zero costs rise
Cost of powering industry 63pc higher than France in blow to Miliband’s net zero targets
Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, has stressed that net zero is not to blame for soaring prices
Matt Oliver 30 September 2025
Energy bills to rise more than expected for millions of British households
Typical annual bill to increase by just over £35 to £1,755 from October when Ofgem raises government price cap by 2%
Jillian Ambrose 27 Aug 2025
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/aug/27/higher-energy-bills-price-cap-rises
Why Britain pays such a crippling price for electricity
Decades of energy policy failure have left businesses and households picking up the bill
Matt Oliver, Jonathan Leake. 29 June 2025
https://archive.fo/nwBIb#selection-2215.4-3351.26
Net zero blamed as Britain faces years of industrial decline
Soaring factory energy prices threaten to undermine manufacturing sector
Tim Wallace, Melissa Lawford 19 March 2025
https://archive.fo/84oAd#selection-2205.4-3351.16
2. Climate and Spain energy
Notice this -- as more solar and wind are added to Spain energy mix, total power generation declines, starting 2009.
Spain's grid operator warns of new voltage swings, urges measures to avoid blackout
By Reuters October 9, 2025
Spain at risk of fresh net zero blackouts
Sudden fluctuations in solar energy are jeopardising the country’s energy supply
Matt Oliver Candela Orobitg-Baena 09 October 2025
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/09/spain-at-risk-of-fresh-net-zero-blackouts/
In the dark: Spain's electricity grid operator warns country could be heading for another blackout
By Jesús Maturana 10/10/2025
Obsolete electricity grid triggered blackout in Portugal and Spain, experts reveal
By Marta Pacheco 03/10/2025
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See also:
Energy 186, Blackout in Boracay, Siquijor, September 14, 2025
Energy 187, Continued decline in UK power generation, October 06, 2025
BWorld 876, On agriculture, fossil fuels, and modernization
On agriculture, fossil fuels, and modernization
June 16, 2026 | 12:02 am
My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/06/16/756759/on-agriculture-fossil-fuels-and-modernization/
A peace deal between the US and Iran was announced yesterday and the official signing will be on Friday, June 19.
Crude oil prices have declined: WTI oil went from $90.5/barrel on June 5, to $85 on June 12, and $80 at noon on June 15. This is good. We need more cheap energy and not more war in order to modernize our countries.
Meanwhile, the rice planting season started in many provinces this month and the farmers face higher farming costs — because of the high oil and gas prices since the US and Israel started their war against Iran on Feb. 28.
Rental for the use of a rotor tractor in a rice field in Pangasinan was P2,800/hectare until about 2023. Then it rose to P3,200 in 2024-2025. Today it costs P4,000/hectare. I learned that tractor rental for sugarcane fields in Negros is now P6,000/hectare.
Various types of fertilizers are byproducts of oil and gas refining and petrochem production. I checked the prices of local fertilizers from the Fertilizers and Pesticides Authority (FPA) of the Department of Agriculture. The price of urea granular is up, from P1,656/bag at end-2025 to P2,666 on June 5, their latest data. My farmer source in Pangasinan said it was already P3,200/bag last week.
Ammonium sulfate (Ammosul) is up from P819/bag at the end of 2025, to P1,249 on June 5 — but my farmer source said it was actually already around P1,800 last week. Ammosul is a fast-acting fertilizer that provides a quick nitrogen boost. Complete fertilizer or triple 14 was P1,941/bag on June 5 as per FPA data, my source said it was already P2,200 last week.
I have looked at the global prices of selected fertilizers or their main ingredients. Sulfur has seen the largest increase, its price has nearly tripled from its end-2025 level. Sulfuric acid is used to produce phosphate, nitrogen, and potassium fertilizers like ammosul.
Fertilizers need good packaging for transport and moisture protection. Polypropelene (PP) woven sacks are used because fertilizers are corrosive and sensitive to moisture. PP bags are durable, cost-effective, and protect the product from absorbing atmospheric moisture and during shipping and handling. PP prices have increased too (see Table 1).
Last week, on June 9, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) made public a digital book they published last March, Current Account Dynamics and the Philippine Economy: Developments and Prospects. It is 402 pages long. It analyzed, among others, the country’s sustained trade deficit (merchandise imports are larger than exports) due to our poor manufacturing capacity. They are correct.
What the BSP is lacking in its analysis is the role of abundant energy — the greater use of oil, gas, and coal to produce more stable, reliable, and competitively priced electricity, and greater availability of liquid fuel for our trucks, buses, tractors, harvesters, etc. Maybe this is because the BSP has embraced the climate crisis narrative. I checked the World Trade Organization (WTO) database and the Energy Institute’s database and found that between 2005 to 2025, countries that saw an expansion of their merchandise exports by 4.5 times or more — Vietnam, the UAE, India, and China — also expanded their energy supply by 2.2 times or more between 2005-2024.
Countries whose merchandise exports expansion was low, at most a 2.4-time expansion over two decades — Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy, and the UK — also had declining or contracting energy supply. Germany, for example, went from 14.1 exajoules (EJ) in 2005 to only 10.1 EJ in 2024.
The Philippines suffers from energy poverty and will not be attractive to big manufacturers even if we had lower taxes and more efficient business bureaucracies (see Table 2).
Back to the Middle East war and the peace deal. The main lessons seen there are the following:
1. Negotiation, not prolonged bombing and endless war, is the key.
2. The US’ security guarantee for Middle East countries is not really working.
3. There is no substitute for oil and gas when it comes to expanding food production via more fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. Alternative power sources — solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydro, and nuclear — cannot produce ammonia, sulfur, phosphorous, potassium, other fertilizer ingredients, and packaging materials.
4. The Philippines and the rest of the world should again embrace hydrocarbons and fossil fuels. They should junk climate alarmism. Renewable energy is mainly for electricity production but not for food production.
PhilStar 97, Electrifying sensationalism and Akbayan sa ingay
Electrifying sensationalism and Akbayan sa ingay
ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star
June 18, 2026 | 12:00am
Negros Power, Bacolod City – from P11.38 in May to P13.84 in June, an increase of P2.46.
MORE Power, Iloilo City – P11.87 in May to P13.87 in June, an increase of P2.
VECO, Cebu City – no announcement yet for June but it was P12.88 in May, likely around P2 increase in June too.
Southern Leyte EC (SOLECO) – from P12.53 in May to P16.57 in June, or P4.04 increase.
In Meralco area, from P14.33 in May to P14.48 in June, or a P0.15 increase.
The reasons for high rate increases in the Visayas grid are: one, higher Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) prices – P4.48 in April to P10.20 in May (reflected in June billing), more than double due to power supply shortage as several big power plants have extended maintenance shutdown while demand remained high. And two, higher cost from power suppliers, the cost of coal, gas and oil have increased. Solar-wind cannot produce or store electricity when the sun is not shining (evening, daytime but thick clouds or raining), or when the wind is not blowing.
Meanwhile, some developments in some Philippines energy stakeholders.
Department of Energy (DOE) sets final consultation on Semirara coal mine bid, submission of bids in two months. The contract will be for 25 years.
Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) celebrated its 25th anniversary and posted 10-month gains in regulatory reforms. Chairperson and CEO Francis Saturnino Juan emphasized that: “Our mission is straightforward: to regulate the power industry in a way that is effective, efficient, and prioritizes the welfare of consumers.” ERC has addressed decade-long delay in the rate reset process for private distribution utilities through the Rationalized Rules for Setting Distribution Wheeling Rates (RRDWR).
National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) announced that overall transmission rates declined from P1.60/kWh in April to P1.45/kWh in May, or a P0.15 decrease. NGCP transmission wheeling rates declined from P0.60 in April to P0.56 in May, while ancillary services (AS) rates decreased from P0.81 in April to P0.72 in May. Wheeling rates directly go to NGCP while AS rates go to AS providers (peaking plants, battery) with bilateral contracts with NGCP to stabilize the grid during power supply-demand imbalances.
Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN) announced the appointment of Arnel Santos from SVP - COO to become president and CEO of MGEN Thermal Energy Inc. starting July 1, 2026.
Felino “Lino” Bernardo, who is the current president and CEO of MGEN Thermal, will do bigger tasks as head of Strategic Energy Transition, to advance the company’s long-term growth and transition agenda. He will lead the company’s strategic development and management of power generation project pipeline – from project identification, feasibility studies, execution strategies, growth initiatives across key developments such as Atimonan One Energy, expansion project in Cebu, and nuclear energy development studies.
MGEN president and CEO Manny Rubio said that the leadership transition is meant to “position us strongly for both today’s operational priorities and tomorrow’s growth opportunities, shape the future of our portfolio and the country’s energy sector.”
Akbayan sa ingay
Recently the Akbayan Party List made lots of political and legislative noise that targeted Meralco for its “high electricity bills,” “recurring bill shocks,” “families receiving electric bills that have doubled,” “questionable charges,” “impose extra charges to ordinary consumers,” etc.
The Akbayan Reform Bloc is composed of their three party-list representatives Chel Diokno, Percival Cendaña and Dadah Kiram Ismula, plus Dinagat Lone District Rep. Kaka Bag-ao. This bloc is also supported by NGOs like Small Entrepreneur for Livelihood Development Association (SELDA), Sentro ng Nagkakaisang Progresibong Manggagawa (SENTRO) and Akbayan Green Working Group.
Their legislators filed House Resolution (HR) 995 calling for an investigation into the “mounting charges in Meralco electricity bills,” House Bill 9134 seeking to remove the VAT on system loss charge and HR 875 calling for an urgent review of the Philippine Energy Plan.
Go back to the top of this paper, electricity rate increases from May to June 2026 in pesos per kwh: Meralco P0.15, MORE Power P2, VECO likely P2 too, Negros Power P2.46 and SOLECO, P4.04.
In addition, there are almost daily announcements of rotating blackouts in almost all DUs and ECs in the Visayas grid -- Cebu, Bohol, Negros Occidental and Oriental, Panay (Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique), Guimaras. They get a bad combination of higher electricity rates plus frequent power fluctuations, if not blackouts.
Why is Akbayan silent on those issues and places? Meralco rate increase of only P0.15 plus no blackout or power fluctuations. Its generation charge is high because it has redundancies in power supply contracts to avoid blackout.
The most expensive electricity is no electricity. A P15/kwh but available electricity is cheaper than P1/kwh but electricity is absent. When there is blackout, the poor use candles that can cause fires, the rich use gensets on diesel that are noisy, more expensive, more polluting.
The real reason why Akbayan and their allies single out Meralco is because Akbayan seeks to keep their three PL seats in the 2028 elections. Attack a big corporation despite its low rate increase and no blackout, to make themselves look “heroic.” Then be silent on so many other DUs and ECs with higher rate increases and frequent power disruption.
This is double talk and hypocrisy by Akbayan and their NGO allies. The voters should investigate Akbayan why they persist on high profile hypocrisy, in aid of their re-election in 2028.
BWorld 875, ‘Trumpflation’ in energy and fertilizer products
‘Trumpflation’ in energy and fertilizer products
June 11, 2026 | 12:02 am
My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/06/11/755854/trumpflation-in-energy-and-fertilizer-products/
Two reports related to Philippine commodity prices were released this week: the Philippine Statistics Authority released the inflation rate for May, and the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) released the market operations highlights at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM).
Our inflation rate of 6.8% in May was the highest in East Asia but was lower than that of South Asian economies like Pakistan and Bangladesh. The average inflation from January-May was highest in Pakistan with 10%, Bangladesh with 9.1%, and the Philippines’ 6%.
Comparing this with the average inflation from January-May 2025, Pakistan saw the largest increase, from 0.5% to 10%, followed by the Philippines, from 1.9% to 6% (see Table 1).
The Marcos Jr. administration’s subsidies and ayuda (assistance) to the public land transport and agriculture sectors so far have not succeeded in controlling transport and food inflation. I think the administration should consider suspending the diesel excise tax even if temporarily.
The reduction in diesel prices — the P6/liter excise tax plus 12% VAT or a reduction of P6.72/liter total — would be a big respite for those whose machines, like tractors, harvesters, threshers, irrigation pumps, trucks, fishing boats, buses and jeepneys, run on diesel. These savings can be translated to lower cost of farming and transporting goods and people.
The IEMOP data show a significant increase in WESM prices (not the overall power generation prices), from P5.63 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in April to P7.79/kWh in the May billing period that will be collected this month.
I checked WESM prices in the same months in the last two years, and it turns out that it was much higher in May 2024 at P8.22/kWh than it was this year. The main explanation is the thin power margins of only 1,867 megawatts (MW) in May 2024 vs 3,629 MW in May 2026 (see Table 2).
TRUMPFLATION
Finally, an update on Trumpflation in energy and fertilizer-related products and inputs. While the prices of crude oil (WTI, Brent, Dubai, Urals/Russia, etc.) and liquefied natural gas or LNG at Japan Korea Marker (JKM) fluctuated, prices of coal and fertilizers inputs keep rising. The price of sulfur, in particular, has nearly tripled since Feb. 27 or day before the US-Israel attack on Iran (see Table 3).
The Middle East war should end soon, and the US and Israel should recognize that their political and military actions have largely contributed to high inflation in many countries — what I call the Trumpflation effect.
The Philippines should embrace again the usefulness of hydrocarbons and fossil fuels. Climate and renewables objectives should take a backseat relative to our tight economic situation. High taxes on, and the demonization of, fossil fuels, and favoritism towards intermittent renewable energy should stop.
Agri Econ 43, Palay price inflation rising
Here is the latest data on palay (unmilled rice) prices from the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA). These are nominal, not real prices so the level of inflation is high but it shows the degree of pass-on cost by the farmers to the consumers, 24% last May to 28% in June and 36% in July.
Energy inflation is quickly transmitted to agri and food inflation. Another reason why energy abundance is important, and why energy products like oil should NOT be taxed, no need for subsidy just do not tax it.
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See also:
Agri Econ 40, Food inflation higher than overall inflation, June 30, 2024
Agri Econ 41, Metro Pacific's More Veggies Please project, June 01, 2025
Agri Econ 42, Rising fertilizer prices, June 08, 2026
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