BWorld 870, On energy inflation, market suspension, power disruption, and Leviste’s solar inaction

On energy inflation, market suspension, power disruption, and Leviste’s solar inaction

May 19, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/19/750452/on-energy-inflation-market-suspension-power-disruption-and-levistes-solar-inaction/

 

We have four topics to tackle here so we go straight to the numbers and facts, starting with energy inflation.

 

While our overall inflation last month was 7.2%, inflation in the transport sector was 21.4% and that of people’s operation of their cars, motorcycles, etc. was 66%.

 

I checked the electricity rates on the Meralco website and saw that the generation charge in the May billing was 17.8% higher than May last year’s. The transmission charge has increased mainly because of the addition of ancillary services (battery and backup oil-gas peaking plants) as more intermittent renewable energy (RE) without battery is added to the grid. The distribution charge is flat while subsidies to off-grid areas and islands via the universal charge for missionary electrification (UC-ME) has increased (see Table 1).

 

Last week, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) released the Market Operations Highlights for April and reflected on the May billing. It covered February to April. The share of coal in the energy mix at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) has decreased, from 61% in February-April 2024 to 57% in February-April 2026, while the share of solar energy has almost doubled, from 3.6% to 6.3% over the same period.

 

Spot prices have increased from P4.52 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in April 2025 to P5.63/kWh in April 2026, mainly because the power margin decreased from 4,585 megawatts (MW) to 4,427 MW over the same period (see Table 2).

 

The bottom-line is, in both WESM prices and the overall generation rate, the electricity price increase is lower than transport inflation but higher than overall inflation.

 

Most people accepted and adjusted to the very high fuel prices in March and April without subsidies. There is little justification for electricity subsidies — we have to adjust for these are externally caused price shocks.

 

MARKET SUSPENSION, LINE RENTAL DISTORTION

The WESM market was suspended from March 26 to April 30. There seems to be a distortion in the payment of line rental (the difference in prices of the generator and customer node corresponding to their bilateral contract declaration or bcq).

 

The Modified Admin Price (MAP) of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) was meant to maximize coal output and minimize LNG and oil because the rise in the price of coal was much lower than the rise in oil and gas prices. The ERC issued a fixed MAP of P6/kWh for coal to be used for spot energy only, but the implementation of MAP P6 became a nodal price.

 

Then there was another price, the customer MAP which averages the coal price and the original admin price. Thus, there were three different prices per interval which created the difference in nodal prices, and resulted in line rentals which should not have happened.

 

There were losers and winners. Coal plants, with their bcq counterparties during the morning to afternoon, have negative line rentals while other technologies have high positive line rentals. Technologies or customers who benefit from negative line rental will not give back, while gencos or customers affected by high line rental payments will not pay.

 

To avoid distortion, the fixed coal price under MAP should have been used only for spot sales of the coal plant and not applied as their nodal price.

 

POWER DISRUPTION, YELLOW-RED ALERTS

For three days last week (May 13 to 15) we saw yellow and red alerts raised in the Visayas and Luzon grids.

 

There was unscheduled maintenance in some big coal plants in Cebu, and the National Grid Corp. of the Philippine’s (NGCP) 500-kilovolt (kV) Tayabas–Ilijan and Ilijan–Dasmariñas transmission lines tripped, which in turn disconnected 2,462 MW of natural gas capacity by LNGPH, particularly the Ilijan (South Premiere Power Corp. or SPPC) Blocks A and B and Excellent Energy Resources, Inc. (EERI) Units 1, 2, and 3, which were disconnected from the Luzon grid and triggered widespread power interruptions across Luzon.

 

It also prevented the transfer of power from the Luzon to Visayas grid.

 

In addition, Masinloc Unit 3 (325 MW) had a forced outage.

 

The Department of Energy (DoE) mobilized the Grid Reliability Task Force (GRTF) composed of the DoE, ERC, IEMOP, the National Transmission Corp. (TransCo) and the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM).

 

ERC Chairman and CEO Francis Saturnino C. Juan visited the System Operations Command Center and wrote to NGCP President and CEO Anthony L. Almeda seeking a detailed account covering date, time, duration of each yellow and red alert, areas affected, generating units, and transmission lines, among others.

 

The rotating hours-long blackouts via manual load dropping (MLD) in many areas of Visayas and Luzon was bad. It further showed that the most expensive electricity is no electricity — not P15/kWh but available electricity, but rather P1/kWh electricity when there are no kilowatts available.

 

DOE’S COMPLAINT VS LEVISTE

On May 6, the DoE filed a criminal complaint against Congressman Leandro Legarda-Leviste and his solar firm, Solar Para sa Bayan Corp. (SPSB/SPBC), for failing to operate its national franchise, citing a seven-year period of total project inactivity.

 

DoE Secretary Sharon S. Garin personally lodged the complaint before the National Prosecution Service of the Department of Justice, saying that “To this date, no application whatsoever has been lodged by SPSB/SPBC, nor has any report been filed regarding its compliance with the terms and conditions of the franchise. Interestingly, when the legislative franchise was granted in 2019, SPSB/SPBC had no single project or operation to speak of.”

 

The DoE said it has no record that the company applied for the permits and approvals required by law, renewable energy projects were instead established and operated for profit through a separate group of companies under the umbrella of Solar Philippines Power Project Holdings, Inc. (SPPPHI), wholly owned by Mr. Leviste. See “Energy dep’t files complaint vs Leviste, firm over idle solar projects” (BusinessWorld, May 7).

 

The congressman should answer the DoE complaint and pay the P24-billion penalty for its failure to deliver its commitments to develop some 11,400 MW of solar farms under 42 Service Contracts (SCs) with the DoE from 2017-2022 and thus contribute to the finance department’s revenue collections. This instead of indulging in politicking irrelevant to energy development and avoiding paying the penalties.

PN 6, Part 2: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Part 2: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

May 10, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/part-2-nickel-potentials-and-palawan/

 

Nickel prices have increased recently, from $15,390/ton in end-May 2025 to $16,750 in end-December 2025 and $19,635/ton last May 5. The all-time high price of nickel was $48,226 on March 07, 2022 mainly because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the latter is a major producer of high-grade nickel.

 

As discussed in Part 1 of this column, the Philippines is the second largest producer of nickel ore in the world after Indonesia, with an output of 330,000 tons in 2024. The country’s estimated nickel reserves is 4.8 million tons, so the reserves/production (R/P) ratio is only 15 years for the Philippines, 25 years for Indonesia, and 38 years for the worldwide average.

 

Prices of nickel sulfate in 2024 were back to 2019 prices at more than $17,000/ton, while cobalt prices have declined in 2024. Cobalt, lithium, and nickel are among the important materials in the production of electric vehicles; cobalt and nickel are for stainless steel and other industrial products.

 

While Caraga region in Mindanao has clear policy and geological

advantages in nickel production, Palawan has its own advantages too but the

policy environment is not friendly to new nickel mining projects.

 

I summarize the policy gap between the two here. This is an extension of

Table 2 in Part 1 of this column.

Both Palawan and Caraga face weather-related production limitations. Palawan’s southwest-facing coast makes it susceptible to the southwest monsoon (June–October), limiting the mining season to approximately November–July. Caraga facing the Pacific Ocean is exposed to typhoons and northeast monsoon conditions from October–March. In 2025, prolonged rains constrained operating days at both FNI’s Palawan and Surigao sites, reducing 9-month sales volume by 14.2% year-on-year.

 

From April 2020 to December 2024, 92% of Caraga’s nickel ore went to China. Palawan’s Ipilan mine are shipped exclusively to Guangdong Century Tsingshan Nickel Industry (GCTN) in China. There is high dependency in exports to China of Philippines nickel ore.

 

The 50-years new mining moratorium is not good for Palawan’s push for higher economic growth. It is good that the Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) has pointed out that the provincial moratorium is in conflict with the national Mining Act of 1995.

 

The Supreme Court has earlier struck down a 25-year mining moratorium imposed by Occidental Mindoro on the same grounds, citing the limited police powers of local government units over national resources. That precedent can apply to Palawan when the Provincial Ordinance is challenged before the courts. 

------------

See also:

PN 3, Coal plants in Luzon and Palawan, May 04, 2026

PN 4, Coal plants in Visayas-Mindanao and Palawan, May 16, 2026

PN 5, Part 1: Nickel potentials and Palawan, May 17, 2026

BWorld 869, The China-US summit and recent ASEAN summit

The China-US summit and recent ASEAN summit

May 14, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/14/749422/the-china-us-summit-and-recent-asean-summit/

 

Today is the start of the two-days visit of US President Donald Trump, Jr. to China. Trade, investment, and market access, the Iran war, and energy are expected to dominate the talks between Mr. Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Taiwan may also crop up.

 

Today I have assembled a variety of economic and energy data from different sources for the three largest economies in Asia, North America, and Europe. In GDP size at current values, the US is No. 1 in the world, but at purchasing power parity (PPP) values, China is No. 1. And this is consistent with rankings in merchandise exports, total energy supply (TES), and total power generation (TPG).

 

In 2025, the total combined GDP size of the US, Canada, and Mexico was $36.98 trillion, smaller than China’s $41.24 trillion. When it comes to merchandise exports, the total combined exports of the US, Canada, and Mexico was $3.40 trillion, smaller than China’s $3.77 trillion.

 

In TES, the combined size of the three North America countries was 111.75 exajoules (EJ), smaller than China’s 158.88 EJ. And in TPG, the combined size of the US, Canada, and Mexico was 5,627 terawatt-hours (TWh), smaller than China’s 10,087 TWh (see Table 1).

 

These numbers show that China already eclipsed the US economy several years ago. But we keep hearing and reading in many news outlets and even academic papers that the US economy is larger than China’s so the US can throw its weight around in many negotiations on trade, investments, infrastructure, and energy.

 

It seems that China has patiently endured the “US is more economically dominant” narrative while consistently increasing its market share in global exports and energy supply. BYD and Geely cars, Howo trucks, Yutong buses, Huawei mobile phones, and many other brands continue to expand their markets in many countries.

 

The more important thing that must be addressed in the Trump-Xi summit is the avoidance of more political and military conflict in the region, from the Middle East to the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, and the Taiwan independence issue.

 

THE ASEAN

Last Friday, May 8, the ASEAN summit was successfully held in Cebu as the leaders of the member-countries reiterated that they would be “reinforcing peace and security through dialogue and cooperation, promoting maritime cooperation as an important avenue for enhancing regional connectivity, mutual trust and dialogue, deepening economic integration… peaceful settlement of disputes, including full respect for legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to the threat or use of force in accordance with international law…”

 

Using the same indicators as Table 1, I summarized the numbers for the ASEAN-6 plus South Korea, Taiwan ,and Australia. Notable was the fast expansion in GDP size of other Asian economies in just two decades, from 2005 to 2025.

 

In merchandise trade, Singapore has more exports than the UK, Russia, and Canada. In power generation, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam are larger than the UK (see Table 2).

 

The real driver of the global economy now is Asia, not North America or Europe. The pace of industrialization, manufacturing expansion, and modernization, and electricity production to power those big and expanding industrial needs, are simply fast, led by China, India, South Korea, and Japan.

 

In the ASEAN, the leading economies are Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam. The Philippines has generally been left behind by some of its ASEAN neighbors in many aspects of industrialization, but this is not necessarily bad for us. Our merchandise trade deficit can be compensated for by non-merchandise trade surplus. It is important that free trade should prevail, and that discriminatory non-tariff barriers be kept to the minimum.

 

More importantly, we need to look inwards more and address various governance problems and issues that adversely affect our businesses, industries, and exporters.

PhilStar 93, Cereals and fertilizers inflation

Cereals and fertilizers inflation

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

May 14, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/05/14/2527726/cereals-and-fertilizers-inflation

The Philippines’ overall inflation increased from 1.4 percent in April 2025 to 7.2 percent in April 2026 and it is bad. But an even worse inflation is registered in other consumer goods like cereals and fertilizers.

 

I checked the Excel table of the Philippines Statistics Authority on wholesale prices of cereals, and the following caught my attention.

 

Well-milled rice per kilo, from P42.94 in April 2025 to P52.05 in April 2026, a 21.2 percent increase, that’s large. Over the same period the largest increases were registered in Central Visayas or Region 7, from P47.68 to P60.55; Davao Region or Region 11, from P 43.45 to P56.07; SOCKSARGEN or Region 12, from P37.20 to P52.91/kilo or 42.2 percent increase; Caraga or Region 13, from P43.65 to P57.25; and BARMM, from P41.14 to P54.00, or 31 percent increase in both Caraga Region and BARMM.

 

White corn grits, April 2025 to April 2026, from P31.43 to P51.95 or 65.3 percent increase. Largest increases were recorded in these regions: Central Visayas, from P36.00 to P63.48 or 76 percent increase; Zamboanga Peninsula or Region 9, from P24.80 to P49.20 or 98.4 percent increase; Caraga or Region 13, from P29.50 to P56.00 or 90 percent.

 

 

Those with modest increases are special rice, from P50.04 to P57.33 or 14.6 percent increase. Yellow corn grits, from P29.66 to P31.85 or 7.4 percent increase.

 

There is no explanation or discussion given in the PSA Excel tables for the high price increases of those commodities. The most likely and understandable reason is higher cost of harvest and thresher, transportation because these are influenced by higher prices of diesel.

 

I have repeatedly argued that government should have suspended the oil excise tax especially for diesel because it is used by tractors, harvesters, irrigation pumps, trucks, fishing boats and many other machines and vehicles.

 

Sure there will be decline in overall revenues. Then it can be compensated by a cut in spending in some sectors. A tax cut can be considered as equivalent to government subsidy across the board with little or zero additional cost like fielding personnel to various areas to distribute certain cash or in-kind subsidy to public transportation, and the occasional wastes and corruption in implementing such subsidy.

 

In the coming planting season starting this June, a new price hike to watch is the cost of fertilizers. Global price of sulfur in particular has been rising from a pre-war price in Feb. 27 of China’s yuan (CNY) 3,877/ton to CNY 6,800 last April 08, declined a bit then resumed increase to CNY 7,803 last May 12.

 

Sulfur is used mainly to produce sulfuric acid, essential for manufacturing phosphate fertilizers, chemicals, and refined petroleum. Other industrial applications include  vulcanizing rubber, creating detergents, and production of fungicides and pesticides.

 

Another major fertilizers ingredient is ammonia or NH3. Its main application is nitrogen fertilizer to produce urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium phosphates to provide nitrogen to crops. Minor applications include the production of plastics, explosives, fabrics, and pesticides.

 

The price of ammonia has increased from Feb. 27 level of $518/ton to $805/ton on April 24 or after eight weeks of Middle East war, latest price is $799/ton last May 11.

 

Sulfur, ammonia, phosphates, etc are derived from oil-gas refining. More oil-gas production and refining means more fertilizers production, higher crop yield and higher food production in the world.

 

That is why it is wrong to keep demonizing hydrocarbons and fossil fuels. Oil-gas produce not only gasoline, diesel and LPG, they also produce various petrochemical products from paint and varnish to plastic and nylon, synthetic rubber tires to asphalt, fertilizers and medicines and many other industrial goods.

 

We should expand drilling and exploration for more indigenous oil and gas, onshore and offshore, national or regional cooperation with neighbors like Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and China.

 

We should set aside climate alarmism and war mongering and instead focus on expanding our domestic energy supply, domestic fertilizers and petrochemicals production. Save our jobs and businesses, save the hungry, and not save the planet as the planet is fine adapting to natural warming-cooling cycle for the past 4.6 billion years.

BWorld 868, Mapping oil-gas dependence of countries, and Meralco’s Q1 income

Mapping oil-gas dependence of countries, and Meralco’s Q1 income

May 12, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/12/748825/mapping-oil-gas-dependence-of-countries-and-meralcos-q1-income/

 

Continued high oil and gas prices affect the cost of mobility and the various industrial and petrochemical products, down to fertilizers resulting in a higher cost of farming. Electricity generation can be somewhat insulated from very high prices for countries that rely more on coal, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, and other renewables.

 

I have here the breakdown of total energy supply by type of fuel. I grouped the countries by continent and sub-continents.

 

The heavy users of oil are Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore. Heavy users of both oil and natural gas are the US, Canada, Mexico, the UAE, the UK, Italy, and Malaysia. And heavy users of natural gas are Russia and Iran.

 

The heavy users of coal are China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam; the high users of coal and gas are Taiwan and the Philippines. Only France is heavily dependent on nuclear power.

 

Countries that are high energy users are also the countries with large GDP sizes. China leads as its GDP of $41.2 trillion and its total energy supply of 159 exajoules (EJ, a unit of energy equal to one quintillion joules) are a lot larger than the US’ GDP of $30.8 trillion and energy supply of 92 EJ.

 

When it comes to electricity generation, the archipelagic Philippines is larger than the city state of Singapore, with 130 vs. 60 terawatt-hours (TWh), but when it comes to total energy supply, Singapore’s is larger than the Philippines’, with 3.79 vs. 2.54 EJ. The main reason is that Singapore is used as a transportation hub by many airlines, shipping lines, cruise lines, and cargo ships.

 

Notable in Table 1 is that America and Europe have seen a small expansion in GDP size over the past two decades, 2005 to 2025. The global average expansion over the same time period is 3.1 times. The expansion of GDP size of the US, Canada, Germany, France, and the UK range from 2.1 to 2.4 times.

 

 

In contrast, China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines saw GDP expansion of 4.2 to 6.9 times while Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, and South Korea’s GDPs expanded 2.8 to 3.8 times. These Asian economies have powered their industrialization and modernization with coal, gas, and oil, using more fossil fuels than renewable energy sources. Asia, and the Philippines in particular, should not veer away from this, they should distance themselves from the aggressive climate-climate agenda that promotes the use of renewable energy.

 

MERALCO

Last week, Meralco released their first quarter (Q1) 2026 Financial and Operational Highlights. Meralco proper as a distribution utility (DU) experienced a decline in energy sales at -1.8%, but the generation unit, the Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN), experienced a 17.6% expansion, while its retail electricity supply (RES) units like Vantage and MPower saw a 9% expansion.

 

In Consolidated Core Net Income (CCNI), MGEN experienced a 51% expansion while the DU and RES suffered a contraction of 21% and 6.4% respectively. It is the same in Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA), the DU and RES suffered contractions but MGEN experienced a 27% expansion (see Table 2).

 

MGEN remains the rock star of the Meralco group. The “lead singer” of this rock star unit, MGEN President and CEO Manny Rubio, identified in his presentation the dynamic parts of the company, namely MGEN Thermal (the coal plant units GBP and San Buenaventura), MGEN Gas (an investment in LNGPH through Chromite Gas, and Singapore-based PacificLight Power), and MTerra Solar for the timely delivery of an initial 250 megawatts (MW) of solar with battery. He also mentioned the $2.8-million US government grant to MGEN for nuclear study.

 

Meanwhile, here are some developments from other agencies.

 

The Department of Energy (DoE) reiterated its moratorium on new coal projects in the country. This is bad news. The good news is that there are exemptions to the moratorium — projects that were categorized in 2020 as committed for expansion, indicative projects with substantial accomplishments, those serving off-grid or island areas, facilities dedicated to the mining and processing of critical minerals, own-use projects within economic zones, and on-grid projects deemed necessary to avert an imminent power supply crisis.

 

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) made three good rulings this month — resuming the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market or WESM operations, the issuance of clarificatory guidelines on Modified Administered Price to stabilize power costs during market suspension, and the suspension of the Green Energy Auction Allowance, or GEA-All, collection for the May and June 2026 billing period.

 

The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines reiterated they are ready with 10,260 MW of available transmission capacity, but there are not enough power plants in the right places, and many new power projects are far away from existing transmission facilities.

The Bureau of Customs issued an order extending solar importer accreditation validity from one year to three years. Good — that means less bureaucracy and additional costs.

PhilStar 92, Trumpflation, Asean Pacifism and Leviste VATism

Trumpflation, Asean Pacifism and Leviste VATism

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

May 7, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/05/07/2526118/trumpflation-asean-pacifism-and-leviste-vatism

 

This paper will cover four topics so we go straight to the numbers and facts.

 

Trumpflation

 

A really bad news in the country announced by the Philippines Statistics Authority last Tuesday is the high inflation of 7.2 percent in April 2026 from only 1.4 percent in April 2025. Sad development for our people although this is not unique to us, it is a global trend. Other countries’ inflation for April 2025 to April 2026 are as follows: Vietnam, 3.1 to 5.5 percent; Sri Lanka, -0.2 to 5.4 percent; Pakistan, 0.3 to 10.9 percent; Italy, 1.9 to 2.8 percent; Germany, 2.1 to 2.9 percent; Spain, 2.2 to 3.2 percent; Belgium, 2.6 to 4.1 percent.

 

Countries with no April 2026 data yet, here are the comparative inflation numbers from March 2025 to March 2026: Australia, 2.4 to 4.6 percent; Mexico, 3.9 to 4.6 percent; UK, 2.6 to 3.3 percent; US, 2.4 to 3.6 percent.

 

We are now into 10 weeks of Trump-Netanyahu attack of Iran and counter-attack by the latter. The war caused destruction of many oil-gas facilities in the Gulf and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in high prices of oil, gas, naptha, petrochem and fertilizer products. Hence, “Trumpflation” or Trump-triggered global inflation.

 

High unemployment

 

Related to rising inflation is rising unemployment in many countries especially the Philippines. The unemployment for March 2025 to March 2026 are as follows: Japan, 2.5 to 2.7 percent; Hong Kong, 3.2 to 3.7 percent; Philippines 3.9 to 5.0 percent; China, 5.2 to 5.4 percent; Australia, 4.1 to 4.3 percent; Poland, 5.3 to 6.1 percent; Sweden, 8.5 to 9.7 percent; Finland, 10.1 to 11.1 percent.

 

ASEAN Pacifism

 

Today is the start of the two-day ASEAN Summit in Mactan, Cebu, tomorrow is the plenary where all presidents or prime ministers of the 10 member-countries will jointly sign a formal agreement and declaration towards peace and prosperity in the region.

 

There are conflict and territory disputes among member-countries of course. Like between Cambodia-Thailand, Philippines-Malaysia over Sabah, but such disputes are generally settled diplomatically. The only big war in the region was the US invasion and occupation of Vietnam from 1965 to 1973 although the last US troops left Vietnam in April 1975.

 

In the latest statement by the association issued last April 30, they called on the member-countries and their trading partners to reiterate a “rules-based, non-discriminatory, open, and predictable, multilateral trading system.” Non-discriminatory, non-arbitrary and stable trade rules means more peace. Countries prefer to send cargo ships, not battle ships to each other.

 

Leviste VATism

 

I stumbled on the Facebook page of Rep. Leandro Legarda Leviste of Batangas, I was surprised at its content – lots of personal and political attacks against his fellow Batangueño Executive Secretary (ES) Ralph Recto and his wife, Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos-Recto.

 

Among Leviste’s attacks is that ES Recto is opposing VAT reduction or removal of certain commodities. But VAT retention or increase or reduction is under the Department of Finance and Secretary Frederick Go in particular, and the DBCC in general that include DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan and DBM Secretary Rolando Toledo. It is not the ES main function.

 

One problem of low VAT collection efficiency in the country is that so many sectors are exempted from VAT, including the sale of solar companies. And Leviste’s main business is in solar.

 

I also saw the official statement of ES Recto released last Tuesday. He stated among others,

 

“Sa unang pagtatagpo pa lang namin, may handa siyang P400 milyon at mariin niya akong pinakiusapan na suhulan ang kanyang kalaban sa pulitika upang umatras ito sa kampanya. Tinanggihan ko ito.

 

“Noong sumunod na linggo, hindi pa siya nakontento. Inalok niya kami ng P1 bilyon para sa pag-urong ni Gov. Vi upang siya ang humalili. Umiiyak ang nanay niya habang ginagawa niya ito. Muli, tinanggihan ko ito. Nakakainsulto. Nakakagalit.

 

“… noong nanalo si Leandro, nanumpa siya sa akin dahil mayroon siyang paulit-ulit na hinahangad: ang makamkam ang libu-libong ektarya mula sa hacienda ng tubo sa Nasugbu.  Wala akong kakayahang pagbigyan ang isang maituturing na agaw-lupa. Tinanggihan ko ulit ito....

“Kaya niya ginagawa ito ay para malunod ang kanyang P24 bilyon na utang na resulta ng kanyang ghost solar projects – ang kanyang pinakamalaking budol sa pamahalaan at sambayanang Pilipino.

 

“He is a deranged and dangerous person who will even skin his loved ones, and use their skin to drumbeat his empty achievements to feed his narcissism. He is the leading national inventor of lies, and in a desperate move to escape accountability, is resorting to lies to divert the issue from his misdeeds.”

 

Last Jan. 29 in this column, “Solar sa Politika and energy security,” I wrote there,

 

“Rep. Leandro Leviste… of Solar Philippines Power Project Holdings Inc. (SPPPHI or SP for short) and Solar Para sa Bayan Corp. (SPBC)… has been slapped by the Department of Energy (DOE) with a P24 billion penalty for its failure to deliver its commitments, to develop some 11,400 MW of solar farms under 42 Service Contracts (SCs) with DOE from 2017-2022.

 

“DOE Secretary Sharon Garin said the DOE consistently reached out to SP regarding its contracts but the company failed to respond. So DOE terminated 24 of the 42 SCs.”

 

Horrible crimes by a neophyte congressman: (1) Bribery of a sitting Executive Secretary, (2) land grabbing attempt for thousands of hectares in Batangas, and (3) escaping a P24 billion penalty by the DOE on his ghost solar projects.

 

I think ES Recto is patient enough to just describe the congressman as “deranged and dangerous.” I will have more unkind adjectives given such behavior but I would rather not utter it here.

BWorld 867, Asia trade and the ASEAN summit

Asia trade and the ASEAN summit

May 5, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/05/747325/asia-trade-and-the-asean-summit/

 

The annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be held on May 7 to 8 in Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu. The Philippines is the Chair of the ASEAN this year.

 

The latest statement issued by the group was on April 30 — the “Joint Statement of the ASEAN Economic Community Council on the Economic Implications of the Situation in the Middle East.” In that 15-point statement, they reiterated among others the following:

 

“…to refrain from introducing unnecessary non-tariff measures and other trade-distortive measures, particularly on food, energy, other essential goods, and their associated inputs during periods of crisis” (point No. 6).

 

“… the importance of a rules-based, non-discriminatory, open, and predictable, multilateral trading system, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its core… global trading system remains open, predictable, transparent, and non-discriminatory” (point No. 12).

 

For me, these are very important points that must be reiterated: the importance of free trade, and non-discriminatory and non-arbitrary trading rules. This because the US is now the biggest violator of non-discriminatory, non-arbitrary trade rules, what with US President Donald Trump, Jr. announcing tariff hikes or tariff cuts any day on any country based on what annoys him or pleases him.

 

Last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the March 2026 international merchandise trade statistics (IMTS) with comparative data for 2025. I checked the IMTS monthly database to get the numbers for 2024 and 2023, then I made the following observations:

 

1. Of the top 10 sources of Philippine imports, all are in Asia except for the US, five of which are from our ASEAN neighbors. More regional and geographical trade consolidation is good.

 

2. China’s share in Philippine imports keeps rising, from 21.7% in 2023 to 28.5% in 2026. South Korea’s share is also rising, from 7.1% to 11.5%.

 

3. The US’ share in Philippine imports keeps declining, from 6.7% in 2023 to 6% in 2026. Meanwhile, Indonesia, Thailand and Taiwan’s shares have also been declining (see Table 1).

 

 

These are my observations about our exports market based on IMTS date:

 

1. The US remains our No. 1 export market and its share in total Philippine exports is rising, from 14.1% in 2023 to 17.7% in 2026. Hong Kong came in second with its share rising rapidly from 9.6% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2026.

 

2. Only Singapore and Malaysia in Asia made it to our top 10 export markets and their combined share declined slightly, from 8.6% in 2023 to 7.5% in 2026. The combined share of Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia also declined, from 7.8% in 2023 to 6% in 2026.

 

3. The shares of China and Japan have also been declining, from 32.2% combined in 2023 to 22.8% in 2026. Meanwhile, the shares of Germany and Netherlands have increased slightly (see Table 2).

 

 

 

Our total trade (exports plus imports) has been rising consistently and this is good, from $48.8 billion in March 2023 to $58.2 billion in March 2026. But our trade deficit (exports minus imports) remains big, -$14.5 billion in 2023 to -$12.8 billion in 2026. This merchandise trade deficit must be compensated for by non-merchandise trade surplus (OFW remittances, BPO revenues, inbound tourism, etc.) to manage our current account and overall balance of payments, avoid further depreciation of the Peso vs the US Dollar and many other currencies.

 

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr., Executive Secretary Ralph G. Recto, Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina Roque may take the opportunity during the ASEAN Summit this week to remind our ASEAN neighbors to also prioritize Philippine exports to their countries, the same way that their exports to the Philippines are given priority.

 

Beyond trade diplomacy, the Philippines should look inwards and expand our production capacity, modernize our roads and ports infrastructure, and increase electricity generation considerably in order to power large manufacturing, industrial, and commercial needs.

 

In 2024, the average power generation in kilowatt hours (kWh) per capita were as follows: the Philippines, 1,148 kWh; Indonesia, 1,332 kWh; Thailand, 2,840 kWh; Vietnam, 2,997 kWh; Malaysia, 6,381 kWh; China, 7,163 kWh; Japan, 8,204 kWh; South Korea, 12,085 kWh; and, Taiwan, 12,332 kWh.

 

Our Asian neighbors still rely heavily on coal and not wind-solar power. In 2024, the average generation in kWh per capita from coal alone was as follows: the Philippines, 701 kWh; Indonesia, 811 kWh; Vietnam, 1,508 kWh; Japan, 2,426 kWh; Malaysia, 2,930 kWh; South Korea, 3,636 kWh; China, 4,138 kWh; and Taiwan, 4,842 kWh. Thailand and Singapore are more dependent on natural gas, which is still a fossil fuel, than coal. For more details, read this column in the Feb. 17 issue, “On ASEAN energy, Terra Solar, and PEPIF 2026.”

 

We need more trade, more modern infrastructure, more power generation (especially from coal and gas), and more peace and prosperity. 

PN 5, Part 1: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Part 1: Nickel potentials and Palawan

PROVINCES & PROSPERITY

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

April 30, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/part-1-nickel-potentials-and-palawan/

 

Nickel is a good and versatile metal, corrosion-resistant used to produce stainless steel, batteries of electric vehicles (EV), superalloys, plating and many more. Nickel enhances strength, durability, and heat resistance in alloys for aerospace, construction, and electronics.

 

Global sources of nickel

The Philippines is the second largest producer of nickel ore in the world after Indonesia, with output of 330,000 tons in 2024. The country’s estimated value of nickel deposit is $170 billion from its 4.8 million tons of proven reserves.

 

The reserves/production (R/P) ratio, or the number of years that the reserves will be depleted assuming the annual production remains the same, is only 15 years for the Philippines, 25 years for Indonesia, 218 years for Canada and 38 years worldwide average (see table 1).

 

The Philippines exported 54 million wet metric tons of nickel in 2024, 92% raw, unprocessed ore with export value of P94.2 billion ($1.59 billion), second only to gold exports value. Some 81% of our nickel exports went to China and the balance of 19% went to Indonesia. China is the number 1 EV producer in the world now.

 

Philippines nickel reserves, CARAGA and Palawan

Philippine nickel deposits are of the laterite type — nickel-bearing soils derived from tropical weathering of ultramafic rock near the surface — and are extracted by open-pit, direct-shipping methods. These are concentrated in two major production zones, CARAGA region and Palawan with smaller deposits in Zambales (Luzon) and Tawi-Tawi.

 

Caraga Region, the nickel production heartland

Caraga region in northeastern Mindanao is often called the “mining capital of the Philippines.” It hosts 26 operating metallic mines, 23 of which are nickel. The two largest Philippine nickel companies, Nickel Asia Corporation (NAC) and Global Ferronickel Holdings Inc. are both headquartered in Surigao del Norte.

 

The three provinces of Caraga in particular:

– Dinagat Islands, with 10 active mines covering 24,221 hectares; declared a mineral reserve since 1939.

 

– Surigao del Sur, with six active mines covering 17,614 hectares (Carrascal-Claver corridor).

 

– Surigao del Norte, which hosts the Surigao Mineral Reservation (250,000 ha), containing an estimated 677 million metric tons of nickel-bearing laterite.

 

Palawan, high-grade deposits

Palawan is the westernmost major island of the Philippines and holds 11 active mines, three of which are large-scale nickel operations spanning four municipalities in the island’s southern end. Key operations include:

 

Rio Tuba (Bataraza), operated by NAC. One of the oldest and largest nickel mines in the Philippines, in production since 1969. Reserve is 60.2 million MT at 1.27% Ni.

Ipilan (Brooke’s Point), operated by Ipilan Nickel Corporation (Global Ferronickel affiliate). Maiden shipment in September 2022. Resource: ~80 million WMT, targeting 1.5–3.0 million WMT/year.

 

Berong (Quezon), Operated by Berong Nickel Corporation. The largest single nickel ore deposit by area in the Philippines is found in Barangay Berong, Quezon, southern Palawan.

(To be continued)

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See also:

PN 2, Ho Chi Minh and Puerto Princesa, some observations, April 03, 2026

PN 3, Coal plants in Luzon and Palawan, May 04, 2026

PN 4, Coal plants in Visayas-Mindanao and Palawan, May 16, 2026