Monday, June 08, 2026

Agri Econ 42, Rising fertilizer prices

While prices of crude oil, naphtha, various petrochemical products are fluctuating, prices of key ingredients of fertilizers like ammonia and sulfur are not, they stay on the roof. Di-ammonium phosphor (DAP) are back to rising again.

Charts below, from the top: Sulfur, DAP, ammonia.


Ammonia prices 2026, $/MT:

February 27,  519.1 

March 30,      595.8

April 30,        793.0

May 29,         814.9

June 4,          826.4

Some recent reports on the subject:

The Iran war is jacking up fertilizer prices and forcing farmers to make tough calls. ‘If I guess wrong, I lose the farm.’

Myra P. Saefong June 2, 2026

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-iran-war-is-jacking-up-fertilizer-prices-and-forcing-farmers-to-make-tough-calls-if-i-guess-wrong-i-lose-the-farm-dc30c979

 

High sulfur prices squeeze fertilizer margins, spur production cutbacks

By Marina Silveira Lima and Leia Velarde. May 29, 2026

https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/052926-high-sulfur-prices-squeeze-fertilizer-margins-spur-production-cutbacks

 

Fertiliser affordability plunges, compounding impact of high prices

RESEARCH BRIEFING 20 May 2026

 

Lawmakers pushed to diversify fertilizer supply amid China reliance

Norman P. Aquino and Pexcel John Bacon, May 28, 2026

https://bworldonline.com/top-stories/2026/05/28/752584/lawmakers-pushed-to-diversify-fertilizer-supply-amid-china-reliance/

 

Cereals and fertilizers inflation

Bienvenido Oplas Jr., May 14, 2026

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/05/14/2527726/cereals-and-fertilizers-inflation

 

DA: Rice prices may hit P62/kg in September due to high fertilizer costs

Keith Clores. April 29, 2026

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2220275/da-rice-prices-may-hit-p62-kg-in-september-due-to-high-fertilizer-costs



See also:

BWorld 872, Lockdown, medical tyranny, economic and fiscal damage

Lockdown, medical tyranny, economic and fiscal damage

May 28, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/28/752522/lockdown-medical-tyranny-economic-and-fiscal-damage/

 

Six years ago I wrote in this column the initial impact of lockdowns in some countries on GDP in the first quarter of 2020: the Philippines -0.2%, Thailand -1.8%, Japan -2.0%, Singapore -2.2%, China -6.8% (“Growth lockdown and low carbon economy,”  May 20, 2020).

 

The full-year 2020 contraction of the Philippines was -9.5%. It was the worst in Asia and also the worst in Philippine economic history since post World War 2.

 

The Duterte government’s lockdown policies were so severe, so many businesses were shutdown and so many people in the private sector became jobless while salaries, allowances and bonuses in government from national down to barangay levels kept flowing. So the government was borrowing left and right while giving certain ayuda (aid) to households, while the government outstanding debt/GDP ratio rose from 37% in 2019 to 52% in 2020 and 57% in 2021.

 

Among the 10 Asian economies, the Philippines had the largest drop in GDP growth from 2017-2019 (no lockdown) to 2020-2022, from 6.5% to 1.3%. Japan and Thailand also had poor performance in 2020-2022 but they were doing poorly even in years before that.

 

Our debt/GDP ratio in 2017-2019 of 37.4% went up big time to 55.3% in 2020-2022, almost 20 percentage points in just three years (see Table 1).

 


The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released on May 26 the Vital statistics (births, deaths, marriages) for November 2025, also the Causes of Death. Among the notable numbers are the following.

 

One, no “excess death” in 2020 when so many COVID cases were reported, there were even fewer deaths in 2020 than in 2019. But there were large excess deaths in 2021 when mass vaccinations started.

 

Two, fewer births from 2020 to present compared with 2019, partly due to fewer marriages in 2020-2021, and possibly due to the vaccine impact on people’s fertility as pointed out by a number of medical studies.

 

Three, a medical anomaly in causes of death where pneumonia deaths that were 10% of total in 2019 suddenly dropped to only 5.6% in 2020 and 4% in 2021. Respiratory diseases and respiratory tuberculosis (TB) also declined in 2020-2021. It may be a case where many pneumonia and TB deaths were counted as COVID deaths, which further fanned the virus scare (see Table 2).

 


On May 25, Executive Secretary Ralph G. Recto issued a statement about a “nuisance and a harassment case” about the PhilHealth fund transfer that keeps cropping up. He wrote: “At the onset, the transfer was mandated by law under the General Appropriations Act of 2024. Inutusan ng Kongreso ang Department of Finance Secretary. The Supreme Court justices themselves said that I have no criminal liability because I ‘simply followed the law and implemented it in good faith.’”

 

Some fiscal data point to the fact that the P60 billion transfer of PhilHealth funds to the national treasury in 2023 has helped overall public finance, which allowed more fiscal space for the DoH and other agencies. In 2023, the government experienced the lowest financing or net borrowing since 2020 of only P1.25 trillion. Subsidy to government corporations including PhilHealth declined that year (see Table 3).

 


A P60-billion cut or reduction in borrowings in 2023 at around 6% average rate of government 10-year bonds means some P3.6 billion/year savings in interest payments alone.

 

The three tables above seem unrelated to each other but they have one common denominator: some physicians that helped engineer the medical and lockdown protocols of 2020-2021 that (a) led to very deep economic contraction and very high increase in debt/GDP ratio, (b) pushed mandatory vaccinations nationwide (choice is zero because people with no vax cards could not even enter schools, offices and malls) that contributed to high excess deaths and possibly declining births, and (c) huge increase in budget deficit and annual financing from 2020 onwards.

 

Among these physicians is Tony Leachon. I saw his Facebook page. It is like a political lobbying page begging for high political mileage with repeated slogans of “Recto resign.” I think physicians who helped engineer the medical tyranny of 2020-2021 are guilty of large-scale economic sabotage. 

PhilStar 95, Japan-Phl-Vietnam relations and the coming flood season

Japan-Phl-Vietnam relations and the coming flood season

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

June 4, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/06/04/2532598/japan-phl-vietnam-relations-and-coming-flood-season



Last week, President Marcos made a state visit to Japan and met with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Emperor Naruhito. A Philippines-Japan Comprehensive Strategic Partnership is being worked out.

 

Upon coming back in Manila, the President hosted a state visit by Vietnam President To Lam. It was the 50th anniversary of Philippines-Vietnam diplomatic relations.

 

Bilateral Trade

 

Japan is the Philippines’ third largest merchandise exports market after the US and Hong Kong, buying an average of $10.9 billion a year from 2022 to 2025. In January to April 2026, we exported $3.8 billion worth of goods to Japan. In terms of exports share, Japan’s share is declining from 14.1 percent of our total exports in 2022 to 2024 to 12.6 percent in 2026.

 

As source of our merchandise imports, Japan is the third largest after China and South Korea. Its share is declining from nine percent of total imports in 2022 to 8.2 percent in January to April 2026. The share of China is rising from 20.6 percent in 2022 to 28.8 percent in 2026, South Korea share is also rising from nine percent in 2022 to 11.6 percent in 2026.

 

Among the ASEAN countries, Vietnam is the fourth largest market of our merchandise exports after Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, buying an average of $1.65 billion a year in 2022 to 2025, and $487 million in January to April 2026. Its market share is declining from 2.2 percent of total exports in 2022 to 1.6 percent in 2026.

 

As source of our imports, among the ASEAN countries Vietnam is the fourth largest origin after Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. Vietnam’s share is rising from 3.3 percent of total imports in 2022 to 3.9 percent in 2026.

 

Investments

 

In 2025, Japan was third largest in approved investments in the Philippines with P34 billion, behind Singapore with P92.8 billion and Netherlands with P36 billion. In 2024, Japan was fourth with P28.7 billion, behind Switzerland with P289.1 billion, South Korea with P97.3 billion and Netherlands with P50.2 billion.

 

Vietnam’s investments in the Philippines is small but slowly rising, with more Vinfast EVs coming in and plans for large-scale EV battery production using the Philippines’ high production of nickel and cobalt. Petro Vietnam Gas is also exploring partnership with Petron Philippines on LNG and related downstream energy projects.

 

I saw the press statement of Aboitiz Equity Ventures (AEV), their conglomerate has three engagements in Vietnam. One, Aboitiz Foods through Pilmico’s acquisition of Vinh Hoan 1 Feed JSC, and recently a $45-million feed mill in Long An province that can produce up to 300,000 metric tons of livestock and animal nutrition feed annually.

 

Two, Aboitiz Power’s (AP) 25 percent stake in Van Phong Power Co. that owns an operational 1,320 MW high-efficiency, low-emission (HELE) coal plant in Khánh Hòa province. Three, expanding direct air links between Cebu and major Vietnam cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh through the Mactan-Cebu International Airport operated by Aboitiz Infracapital. AEV officials like AP chief corporate services officer Carlos Aboitiz and AP CFO Sandro Aboitiz have met with Vietnam President To Lam on Day 1 of his state visit here.

 

Flood season coming

 

Last week, PAGASA announced the start of habagat or southwest monsoon season in the Philippines. Recall the bad La Niña and horrible flooding during habagat season last year especially in July. I counted 12 days with no sun in Metro Manila that month, mostly thick clouds and rains. It was during the series of flooding that the flood control scandal exploded.

 

This week Executive Secretary Ralph Recto met with officials of DPWH, DOTr, MMDA and DOLE to coordinate a major cleanup and de-clogging drive to reduce flooding across Metro Manila. President Marcos ordered the agencies to intensify flood mitigation efforts. Deployment of thousands of workers under the Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged/Displaced Workers (TUPAD) is part of the program.

 

I support this move. Our problem yearly in the Philippines and the tropics is lots of rain, lots of flood, not lack of rains. The solution is not more climate meetings and junkets, not more climate loans and bureaucracies. The solution is regular, annual dredging of those waterways, make them deeper and wider to accommodate more excess rainwater.  Technically not flood control but flood facilitation so the excess rainwater can drain out to the sea as fast as possible.

 

Aside from declogging of waterways initiated by ES Recto and other officials, two other measures that the government may consider are the following.

 

One, leave mined-out areas to remain open and deep and become artificial lakes to help store water in the upland or midland. Mined-out areas should not be covered with soil and planted with trees as provided in the mining law.

 

Two, build more dams, weirs and related water storage structures in our many rivers and creeks. Various purposes like reduce flooding during heavy rains, source of raw water for water companies, hydroelectric power generation, irrigation source, inland fishing and eco-tourism.

 

In particular, above existing dams. I saw Ambuklao dam and hydroelectric plant in Benguet, just one hour by car from Baguio, it is beautiful and useful. Maybe another dam and hydro plant upstream can be built. Then between Ambuklao and Lower Binga dam and hydroelectric plant also in Benguet. Then between Binga and San Roque dam and hydro plant in Pangasinan.

 

The dam, weir and water reservoir are still owned by the government, only the hydroelectric power plant is owned by the private energy companies.

 

More bilateral trade and investments in Asia, not more war mongering. More water storage and waterways dredging, not more climate bureaucracies and junkets.

Sunday, June 07, 2026

PN 7, Part 3: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Part 3: Nickel potentials and Palawan

PROVINCES AND PROSPERITY

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

June 04, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/part-3-nickel-potentials-and-palawan/

 

Compared to several other metals, nickel has higher global price, higher than copper, zinc, aluminum, lead and iron ore. Nickel prices this decade are triple than four decades ago. That alone plus rising global demand is a good market potential for expanding nickel production in the Philippines.

 


Extraction of nickel in the Philippines is mostly done via high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) but some players are looking at other technologies to improve efficiency and reduce costs.

 

Philippines nickel deposits are of the laterite type — nickel-bearing soils derived from tropical weathering of ultramafic rock near the surface — and are extracted by open-pit, direct-shipping methods.

 

Both Palawan and Caraga Region in Mindanao have shared ore type of Nickeliferous Laterite — iron-rich tropical soils formed by deep weathering of serpentinized ultramafic rock (peridotite). The laterite profile has two commercially important zones:

 

Limonite (oxide) zone: Upper layer, lower nickel content but important source of cobalt as a by-product. Easier to ship (lower moisture). Saprolite (silicate) zone: Lower layer, higher nickel content. More commercially valuable per ton, but higher moisture makes loading and shipping more complex.

 

The non-common characteristics of Palawan nickel vs Caraga Region nickel are here.

 


Higher nickel grades in Palawan give its ore a commercial premium. Ipilan’s maiden shipments in 2022 comprised exclusively high-grade ore above 1.5% Ni, and its 2025 production plan targets a mix of medium-grade (1.4%+) and low-grade (1.3%). Caraga’s larger-volume production typically falls below 1.2% Ni, positioned primarily for Chinese blast furnace ferronickel (NPI) production rather than battery-grade applications.

 

Among the hindrances to nickel mining in the Philippines are opposition by activists based on their emotionalism. A recent case is the Petition for a Writ of Kalikasan filed against a subsidiary of Hinatuan Mining Corporation (HMC) in Manicani island in, Guiuan, Eastern Samar.

 

Good decision by the Supreme Court last May 11 to junk the “Trial by sentiment” where legitimate, complying by law and regulated mining operations are harassed by legal challenges and noisy political allegations based on “general impressions,” “bare allegations,” and “pure speculation.”

 

In an assessment last September 23, 2025, the US government’s International Trade Administration said that “The Philippines is among the world’s most mineralized countries and remains the world’s largest exporter of nickel ore and the second-largest producer globally. With substantial reserves of copper, nickel, cobalt, and other critical minerals, the country plays a vital role in global supply chains for clean energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and semiconductors.”

 

They added that “The Philippines holds an estimated $170 billion in nickel deposits, among the largest in Southeast Asia, with processing opportunities in Zambales, Surigao, Dinagat, and Palawan. The country has approximately 4.8 million metric tons (MT) of nickel reserves, though further exploration may be needed to refine these estimates. Most nickel is exported as raw ore, highlighting opportunities for U.S. firms in expanding domestic refining and downstream processing.”

 

There are persistent moves to prohibit exports of nickel ore by the Philippines and move towards export of processed ores only in order to optimize revenues. While the intention is good, the economics of it is not yet mature. Mineral ore processing is very capital- and energy-intensive, two resources that we have scarcity. Plus there is need for high volume of nickel ores that must be processed.

 

The continuing yellow-red alerts in the Visayas grid in May-June 2026, the three-days yellow-red alert in Luzon grid in late May are proof of energy scarcity in the country. Like data centers, mineral processing energy intensiveness can further starve other areas and industry of the country of additional electricity supply.

 

So an important prerequisite for mineral processing is huge increase in power generation in the Philippines, especially in nickel-rich areas like Palawan and Caraga region. Palawan can start having big coal power plants, have power surplus to bring down the cost of electricity without relying on subsidies from all electricity consumers nationwide via the universal charge for missionary electrification (UCME).

 

Having huge power supply in Palawan would attract the investors, foreign and local, to do more nickel extraction and processing. Higher efficiency and revenues for the private players and people of Palawan can be expected then.

------------

See also:

BWorld 871, Rising debt, limited power infrastructure, and legislative populism

Rising debt, limited power infrastructure, and legislative populism

May 26, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/26/751936/rising-debt-limited-power-infrastructure-and-legislative-populism/

 

Writing political commentary in this column is something that I avoid because it is not my focus of regular research, but the recent drama and political coup at the Philippines Senate made me come up with this piece for my column. And I support the observation of many other columnists that what is happening at the Senate is disgusting.

 

Two sets of data here show that the current breed of legislators at the Senate (and also at the House of Representatives) are just elections-oriented and are interested in subsidies-expanding populism, and not taxpayers-sensitive and industrialization-oriented.

 

1. Our rising Debt/GDP ratio since 2020 lockdown. New subsidies and freebies are created or expanded without cutting or abolishing existing subsidies that do not work in reducing poverty. Politicians, both national and local, spout and promise new subsidies and freebies during the campaign period without regard for the overall fiscal condition that is worsening.

 

Our Debt/GDP ratio of 65% in 2005 (the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo administration) went down to 48% in 2010, and down further to 40% in 2015 (the Benigno Aquino III administration), sinking to 37% in 2019 (during the first half of Rodrigo Duterte’s administration). It then quickly jumped to 52% in 2020 during the horrible COVID lockdown (also during Duterte’s term), and further increased to 59% in 2025 under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.’s administration. In contrast, Vietnam showed fiscal discipline and even reduced its Debt/GDP ratio in 2025 (see Table 1).

 


2. Most legislators are too focused on reducing power prices via political optics when the bigger problem is limited power infrastructure, limited supply and transmission while power demand keeps rising.

 

In 2024, the Philippines’ total power generation was only 130 terawatt-hours (TWh) compared with Malaysia, which has a smaller population, which produced 214 TWh; Vietnam’s 304 TWh; and South Korea’s 625 TWh. Environmental activists and legislators want the early decommissioning of our existing coal plants and a prohibition on building new ones. But our coal generation in 2024 was only 79 TWh while that of greenie Germany was 106 TWh; Australia’s was 127 TWh; Japan’s was 300 TWh. The US’s coal generation that year was 712 TWh or nine times that of the Philippines, while China’s was 5,828 TWh or 73 times that of the Philippines.

 

Our power generation is restricted because cheap new baseload coal is restricted while unstable solar and wind power (with no battery and which have expensive auction prices) are being rushed and given priority dispatch.

 

On the transmission side, in 2025 the Philippines had only 23,110 kilometers of transmission lines (23,379 km according to official data from the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines or NGCP), mainly because of our archipelagic geography. It is costly to connect many islands (Luzon-Leyte, Leyte-Bohol-Cebu, Panay-Negros-Cebu, Mindanao-Visayas, etc.), and one has to deal with many bureaucracies when it comes to right of way acquisitions, a limit to capex recovery from regulators, etc. In contrast, Thailand has 40,300 km, Vietnam has 61,900 km, and Japan has 180,000 km (see Table 2).

 


Nonetheless, there was big improvement in our transmission system, from only 24,214 megavolt-ampere (MVA) in 2008 (pre-NGCP franchise) to 44,145 MVA in 2025 resulting in 182% in power delivery capacity and a 85% decrease in power outages.

 

Combine or add these: limited power generation + limited transmission facilities + high power demand = low power reserves (especially in Visayas grid), and prices go up.

 

And there are additional subsidies and charges in our monthly electricity bill, like universal charge for missionary electrification (UCME), ancillary services charge in transmission, FIT-All, and GEA-All or green charges, local taxes and franchise taxes, and the subsidy to lifeline households.

 

Many legislators blame the private generation companies, blame private distribution utilities, blame the transmission operator, and want more price control to all of them, blame the VAT and push for the abolition of VAT on electricity.

 

Responsible legislators focus on the factors that restrict cheap baseload generation, that restrict faster transmission lines across islands and provinces, that add more unnecessary charges and high taxes. The VAT in electricity should stay, but the VAT rate should be cut to 8-10%, and all exemptions should be removed except those on raw agriculture products.

 

For three weeks now, the Visayas grid has been experiencing daily yellow alerts (raised when the operating margin of the power grid is insufficient to meet transmission requirements), especially between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. There have been continued forced outages of the major coal plants TVI in Cebu and PEDC unit 3 in Iloilo. These two coal plants have worked hard over the last decade and saved the Cebu, Negros, and Panay islands and provinces from daily blackouts. Now they are experiencing some industrial fatigue but are being repaired.

 

The solution is the expansion of these big coal plants and adding small LNG plants to any of these three big islands, plus in Boracay, Bohol, Guimaras, Masbate, Marinduque, Romblon, and other off-grid areas. The solution is not decommissioning these coal plants and replacing them with intermittent solar and wind power.

 

There is ongoing or planned expansion of TVI in Cebu and PEDC in Iloilo, and these should proceed without delay. I checked with the NGCP: these expansions can be accommodated by the Visayas transmission system, which is good.

 

So combine these: elections-oriented legislators, subsidies-populist political programs with no regard for the overall fiscal condition, politics-driven electricity pricing instead of reserves expansion to bring down prices. That kind of political culture can produce the sort of political drama that is happening in the Senate.

 

The President, the Executive Secretary, and other Cabinet officials can take the lead in changing the political culture. Change it to a culture of fiscal discipline and responsibility, self-reliant citizens and not state-dependent ones, and industrialization-oriented politics and economic agenda.

PhilStar 94, Transition from energy poverty to energy abundance and the OIEA

Transition from energy poverty to energy abundance and the OIEA

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

May 28, 2026 

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/05/28/2530941/transition-energy-poverty-energy-abundance-and-oiea


 

Last Tuesday, May 26, I attended the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP) forum on the theme, “Beyond the Crisis: Defining a New Era of Philippine Energy” held at Frabelle Corporate Plaza, Makati. I am not a member of EJAP but the leaders gave me permission to attend, my gratitude to them.

 

After the welcome message by EJAP president Ted Cordero, the keynote address was given via video by Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Sharon Garin, followed by her prepared speech read by DOE Undersecretary Felix William “Wimpy” Fuentebella. Then another video message from Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) chairman and CEO Francis Saturnino “Nino” Juan.

 

Sec Sharon and Usec Wimpy highlighted the practical dictum that energy security is national security, diversified power sources and more reliance on indigenous energy reduces the risks from high import fuel dependence. Chair Nino mentioned one of my non-friendly topics, electricity price control via the secondary price cap at WESM. Because price control is price dictatorship and he correctly noted that the price cap has become the destination instead of “circuit breaker” during hours of thin power margins.

 

I am no fan of DOE’s so many gigawatts (GW) of green energy auction (GEA) for solar-wind with no battery, especially offshore wind that are very costly in both generation and transmission system. We need another round of auction, a baseload energy auction (BEA) that should run parallel to GEA at similar level of GW.

 

Then a panel discussion with six speakers: Usec Wimpy, ERC director Sharon Montaner, MGEN Renewables president and CEO Dennis Jordan, Prime CoreGen president and CEO Jose Victor Emmanuel “Jocot” de Dios, Divina Law Offices senior partner Jose “Jay” Layug Jr., and Aboitiz Power vice president for corporate affairs Ronald Francis “Suiee” Suarez. The moderator was The STAR business editor and columnist Iris Gonzales, my editor in this column.

 

All of them have the unanimous view that we need to expand power generation to address power shortages. Even Jay Layug who champions heavy RE use in our power system concedes the need for additional baseload. Jocot spoke about developing more indigenous gas and I agree with him, hydrocarbons are beautiful not only for liquid fuel and power generation but also for various petrochem, fertilizers production.

 

Dennis spoke naturally about MTerra Solar, the largest project of his company. This kind of solar project I can support because it has battery, an extensive storage system and removes the “duck curve” at noontime. But I wish that MGEN Thermal president Lino Bernardo was also there to talk about the larger beauty of thermal plants, spinning machines that can run 24/7 with inertia and high energy density.

 

Suiee mentioned that they have allotted high capex this year for RE but he also highlighted that their conventional plants, both thermal and renewable – coal, gas, geothermal, hydro – play a big role in helping ensure energy security of the country.

 

During the Q&A, I was the last to ask a question and I asked Usec Wimpy – Why not change the concept of energy transition from energy poverty to energy abundance? The kwh per capita generation, the Philippines has 1,100, Vietnam has nearly 3,000, Singapore has 9,000, South Korea has 12,000. We are in a state of energy poverty and energy transition from fossil fuels to variable RE is the least relevant for us.

 

Usec Wimpy agreed but he insisted on aligning DOE policies with the energy trilemma – energy security, affordability and sustainability.

 

Energy abundance. I checked the web if there is already an “energy abundance index”, there is none. There is the “Simon Abundance Index” (SAI) developed by “Human Progress” project of Cato Institute in the US but it is focused on the relationship between resource abundance and population, and energy is only one of many factors.

 

So I will introduce an informal concept that may be called the Oplas Index of Energy Abundance (OIEA, pronounced like “Oh yeah”). I computed the electricity generation per person of countries as: Total generation in gigawatt-hours (GWh) divided by population in million equals kWh per capita. Then set a threshold of 1,500 kWh per capita, 1,499 or below is energy poverty.

 

The corresponding threshold in GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) value is roughly $15,000 and in GDP at current value is around $4,500. But I will expand on this in future elaboration of the index.

 

Data sources, for total generation, Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2025; population and GDP size, IMF, World Economic Outlook 2026. I start with Asia-Pacific countries first and here are the numbers of power generation in 2024:

 

(a) Energy abundance, 5,001 and above kWh per capita: Hong Kong 5,203; Malaysia 6,381, China 7,163; Japan 8,204; New Zealand 8,510; Singapore 9,875; Australia 10,283; South Korea 12,085; Taiwan 12,332.

 

(b) Energy affluence, 1,500 to 5,000 kWh per capita: Thailand 2,784; Vietnam 2,997.

 

(c) Energy poverty, below 1,500 kWh per capita: India 1,400; Indonesia 1,332; Philippines 1,151; Cambodia 1,016; Sri Lanka 863; Bangladesh 624; Pakistan 567; Myanmar 396.

 

Our 1,150 kWh per capita is what Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan attained in the 70s; Australia and Japan attained in the 60s or 50s; Malaysia in 1988, Thailand in 1997, China in 2001 and Vietnam in 2011. I will show the tables and computations in my column in BusinessWorld next week.

 

So there. We should go for energy abundance and not wallow in energy poverty. Go for energy agnosticism and not favoritism (priority and mandatory dispatch for RE). Go for targeting say 1,600 kWh per capita by 2030, 2,500 by 2040 and 4,000+ by 2050. Instead of targeting 50 percent RE by 2050.

BWorld 870, On energy inflation, market suspension, power disruption, and Leviste’s solar inaction

On energy inflation, market suspension, power disruption, and Leviste’s solar inaction

May 19, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/19/750452/on-energy-inflation-market-suspension-power-disruption-and-levistes-solar-inaction/

 

We have four topics to tackle here so we go straight to the numbers and facts, starting with energy inflation.

 

While our overall inflation last month was 7.2%, inflation in the transport sector was 21.4% and that of people’s operation of their cars, motorcycles, etc. was 66%.

 

I checked the electricity rates on the Meralco website and saw that the generation charge in the May billing was 17.8% higher than May last year’s. The transmission charge has increased mainly because of the addition of ancillary services (battery and backup oil-gas peaking plants) as more intermittent renewable energy (RE) without battery is added to the grid. The distribution charge is flat while subsidies to off-grid areas and islands via the universal charge for missionary electrification (UC-ME) has increased (see Table 1).

 


Last week, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) released the Market Operations Highlights for April and reflected on the May billing. It covered February to April. The share of coal in the energy mix at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) has decreased, from 61% in February-April 2024 to 57% in February-April 2026, while the share of solar energy has almost doubled, from 3.6% to 6.3% over the same period.

 

Spot prices have increased from P4.52 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in April 2025 to P5.63/kWh in April 2026, mainly because the power margin decreased from 4,585 megawatts (MW) to 4,427 MW over the same period (see Table 2).

 


The bottom-line is, in both WESM prices and the overall generation rate, the electricity price increase is lower than transport inflation but higher than overall inflation.

 

Most people accepted and adjusted to the very high fuel prices in March and April without subsidies. There is little justification for electricity subsidies — we have to adjust for these are externally caused price shocks.

 

MARKET SUSPENSION, LINE RENTAL DISTORTION


The WESM market was suspended from March 26 to April 30. There seems to be a distortion in the payment of line rental (the difference in prices of the generator and customer node corresponding to their bilateral contract declaration or bcq).

 

The Modified Admin Price (MAP) of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) was meant to maximize coal output and minimize LNG and oil because the rise in the price of coal was much lower than the rise in oil and gas prices. The ERC issued a fixed MAP of P6/kWh for coal to be used for spot energy only, but the implementation of MAP P6 became a nodal price.

 

Then there was another price, the customer MAP which averages the coal price and the original admin price. Thus, there were three different prices per interval which created the difference in nodal prices, and resulted in line rentals which should not have happened.

 

There were losers and winners. Coal plants, with their bcq counterparties during the morning to afternoon, have negative line rentals while other technologies have high positive line rentals. Technologies or customers who benefit from negative line rental will not give back, while gencos or customers affected by high line rental payments will not pay.

 

To avoid distortion, the fixed coal price under MAP should have been used only for spot sales of the coal plant and not applied as their nodal price.

 

POWER DISRUPTION, YELLOW-RED ALERTS


For three days last week (May 13 to 15) we saw yellow and red alerts raised in the Visayas and Luzon grids.

 

There was unscheduled maintenance in some big coal plants in Cebu, and the National Grid Corp. of the Philippine’s (NGCP) 500-kilovolt (kV) Tayabas–Ilijan and Ilijan–Dasmariñas transmission lines tripped, which in turn disconnected 2,462 MW of natural gas capacity by LNGPH, particularly the Ilijan (South Premiere Power Corp. or SPPC) Blocks A and B and Excellent Energy Resources, Inc. (EERI) Units 1, 2, and 3, which were disconnected from the Luzon grid and triggered widespread power interruptions across Luzon.

 

It also prevented the transfer of power from the Luzon to Visayas grid.

 

In addition, Masinloc Unit 3 (325 MW) had a forced outage.

 

The Department of Energy (DoE) mobilized the Grid Reliability Task Force (GRTF) composed of the DoE, ERC, IEMOP, the National Transmission Corp. (TransCo) and the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM).

 

ERC Chairman and CEO Francis Saturnino C. Juan visited the System Operations Command Center and wrote to NGCP President and CEO Anthony L. Almeda seeking a detailed account covering date, time, duration of each yellow and red alert, areas affected, generating units, and transmission lines, among others.

 

The rotating hours-long blackouts via manual load dropping (MLD) in many areas of Visayas and Luzon was bad. It further showed that the most expensive electricity is no electricity — not P15/kWh but available electricity, but rather P1/kWh electricity when there are no kilowatts available.

 

DOE’S COMPLAINT VS LEVISTE


On May 6, the DoE filed a criminal complaint against Congressman Leandro Legarda-Leviste and his solar firm, Solar Para sa Bayan Corp. (SPSB/SPBC), for failing to operate its national franchise, citing a seven-year period of total project inactivity.

 

DoE Secretary Sharon S. Garin personally lodged the complaint before the National Prosecution Service of the Department of Justice, saying that “To this date, no application whatsoever has been lodged by SPSB/SPBC, nor has any report been filed regarding its compliance with the terms and conditions of the franchise. Interestingly, when the legislative franchise was granted in 2019, SPSB/SPBC had no single project or operation to speak of.”

 

The DoE said it has no record that the company applied for the permits and approvals required by law, renewable energy projects were instead established and operated for profit through a separate group of companies under the umbrella of Solar Philippines Power Project Holdings, Inc. (SPPPHI), wholly owned by Mr. Leviste. See “Energy dep’t files complaint vs Leviste, firm over idle solar projects” (BusinessWorld, May 7).

 

The congressman should answer the DoE complaint and pay the P24-billion penalty for its failure to deliver its commitments to develop some 11,400 MW of solar farms under 42 Service Contracts (SCs) with the DoE from 2017-2022 and thus contribute to the finance department’s revenue collections. This instead of indulging in politicking irrelevant to energy development and avoiding paying the penalties.

Saturday, June 06, 2026

PN 6, Part 2: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Part 2: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

May 10, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/part-2-nickel-potentials-and-palawan/

 

Nickel prices have increased recently, from $15,390/ton in end-May 2025 to $16,750 in end-December 2025 and $19,635/ton last May 5. The all-time high price of nickel was $48,226 on March 07, 2022 mainly because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the latter is a major producer of high-grade nickel.

 

As discussed in Part 1 of this column, the Philippines is the second largest producer of nickel ore in the world after Indonesia, with an output of 330,000 tons in 2024. The country’s estimated nickel reserves is 4.8 million tons, so the reserves/production (R/P) ratio is only 15 years for the Philippines, 25 years for Indonesia, and 38 years for the worldwide average.

 

Prices of nickel sulfate in 2024 were back to 2019 prices at more than $17,000/ton, while cobalt prices have declined in 2024. Cobalt, lithium, and nickel are among the important materials in the production of electric vehicles; cobalt and nickel are for stainless steel and other industrial products.

 


While Caraga region in Mindanao has clear policy and geological

advantages in nickel production, Palawan has its own advantages too but the

policy environment is not friendly to new nickel mining projects.

 

I summarize the policy gap between the two here. This is an extension of

Table 2 in Part 1 of this column.



Both Palawan and Caraga face weather-related production limitations. Palawan’s southwest-facing coast makes it susceptible to the southwest monsoon (June–October), limiting the mining season to approximately November–July. Caraga facing the Pacific Ocean is exposed to typhoons and northeast monsoon conditions from October–March. In 2025, prolonged rains constrained operating days at both FNI’s Palawan and Surigao sites, reducing 9-month sales volume by 14.2% year-on-year.

 

From April 2020 to December 2024, 92% of Caraga’s nickel ore went to China. Palawan’s Ipilan mine are shipped exclusively to Guangdong Century Tsingshan Nickel Industry (GCTN) in China. There is high dependency in exports to China of Philippines nickel ore.

 

The 50-years new mining moratorium is not good for Palawan’s push for higher economic growth. It is good that the Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) has pointed out that the provincial moratorium is in conflict with the national Mining Act of 1995.

 

The Supreme Court has earlier struck down a 25-year mining moratorium imposed by Occidental Mindoro on the same grounds, citing the limited police powers of local government units over national resources. That precedent can apply to Palawan when the Provincial Ordinance is challenged before the courts. 
------------

See also: