BWorld 863, Coal-gas powered growth

Coal-gas powered growth

April 21, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/04/21/744178/coal-gas-powered-growth/

 

Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2026, so I downloaded the database Excel files. For this column, I will focus on the GDP size of countries at purchasing power parity (PPP) values. And since there is plenty of noise and lobbying now that we should hasten the transition from fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal) to renewables (mainly solar and wind power), I compared the power generation from coal and gas of major economies.

 

Among the notable numbers I saw below are the following.

 

1. China’s GDP size in 2025 was $10.5 trillion larger than that of the US, 6.7 times larger than Germany’s, 5.9 times larger than Japan’s, and 5.7 times larger than Russia’s. India had the second largest expansion in GDP size from 2005 to 2024 next to China.

 

2. Countries which expanded their use of coal by at least 48% in their coal and gas power generation from 2005 to 2024 also saw the expansion in GDP size by at least 100% over the same period. More specifically China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Iran, Turkey, Brazil, and Mexico.

 

3. Countries that saw a contraction in their coal and gas generation, or saw growth in these of a low 10%, also saw low expansion in their GDP size. More specifically the US, Japan, France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain, and Canada (see the table).

 

The main lesson from the ongoing Middle East conflict is that humanity will keep using oil, gas, and coal. Oil and gas do not only mean gasoline, diesel, kerosene, LPG, and LNG. It also means paint, varnish, plastic, synthetic rubber, asphalt, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, and thousands of industrial manufacturing products. Solar and wind cannot produce these commodities, only oil and gas can.

 

Coal not only generates cheap and stable electricity; the coal ash is also used for cement production, resulting in zero waste.

 

The Department of Energy should stop the endless expansion of solar and wind beyond the committed projects. It should stop particularly the irrational and expensive development of offshore wind and instead expand our baseload and mid-merit power requirement from coal and gas plus nuclear.

 

We should target to expand our GDP size to at least $2.2 trillion by 2030, expand our overall power generation from 130 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024 to at least 200 TWh by 2030. This instead of targeting 35% renewable energy by 2030 and 50% by 2050.

 

Three energy conglomerates which have both big coal plants and LNG plants are on the side of useful economic expansion — Aboitiz Power, Meralco PowerGen (MGEN), and SMC. MGEN in particular is very explicit in targeting running nuclear power plants soon.

 

Planet Earth has experienced a natural climate cycle of warming and cooling for the past 4.6 billion years. Nothing catastrophic occurred as humanity has modernized and adapted to such a multi-decadal climate cycle.

 

Renewable energy targeting is based on catastrophe fiction and climate alarmism. GDP size targeting is based on economic needs and energy realism.

PhilStar 89, Stable grid and stable growth

Stable grid and stable growth

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

April 16, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/04/16/2521217/stable-grid-and-stable-growth

 

If we want more stable and sustained growth, we should have less variable renewable energy (RE) like solar and wind. Conversely, if we want anemic and unstable growth, we should keep expanding those variable RE.

 

I computed the average GDP growth from 2012 to 2025 of selected countries based on their RE generation (solar, wind, biomass, geothermal) to total power generation or RE/T ratio.

 

Countries with low RE/T ratio between 12 to 18 percent in 2023-2024, their average GDP growth are as follows:  India, 6.3 percent;  Vietnam, 6.3 percent; China, 6.1 percent; Philippines, 5.2 percent; Indonesia, 4.3 percent. Good.

 

Indonesia and Philippines have high geothermal use that is why they belong to the above group. The growth of neighbors with RE/T ratio below 10 percent, Malaysia has 4.4 percent, Singapore has 3.6 percent. Also good.

 

Countries with high RE/T ratio of 42-50 percent, their average anemic growth are as follows: Germany, 0.9 percent; UK, 1.6 percent; Spain, also 1.6 percent. Those with RE/T ratio of 29 percent, their growth are: Brazil, 1.2 percent; Australia, 2.4 percent. Bad, we should not follow them.

 

There are many factors for countries’ high or low growth and the RE/T ratio is only one of them but it is among the important factors.

 

Another weak link to attain stable high growth is geographical isolation of many islands. Off-grid islands and provinces run gensets that use diesel and bunker fuel to produce electricity – more expensive fuel, and less stable supply. Results are less economic activities on those off-grid islands plus high cost of subsidy via universal charge for missionary electrification (UC-ME), additional monthly cost  for consumers of on-grid islands from Luzon to Mindanao.

 

I saw these recent reports in The STAR written by Brix Lelis: “Over P18 billion NGCP projects up for completion in 2026” (Feb. 13), “NGCP plans P24 billion submarine grid link for Mindoro” (March 18), “Thin reserves put power grids at risk” (March 26).

 

These are good development except thin power reserves. The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) proposed 500 kiloVolt (kV) Batangas-Mindoro Interconnection and Backbone Project (BMIBP) submarine cable is needed moons ago, good that it will be completed soon. Which will help expand businesses in Oriental and Occidental Mindoro while reducing the UC-ME in the monthly electricity bill of on-grid consumers nationwide.

 

I was born and grew up until high school in Negros Occidental. There is power deficit there until today, no coal plant and to prevent daily Earth Hours, the island imports coal power from neighbors Cebu and Iloilo. NGCP new projects like the P1.9-billion Amlan-Dumaguete 138-kV line in Negros Oriental, the P4.2-billion Nabas-Caticlan-Boracay 138-kV line in Aklan, the P1-billion Visayas Substation Reliability Project Stage 2, these are good.

 

Back to RE/T ratio. Latest data from the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) about our energy mix show that for January-March 2026, the share of solar plus wind has reached 7.4 percent of total generation, from only 3.8 percent same months of 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2024.

 

The share of coal is 56.8 percent of total generation in 2026, from 52 percent in 2021 and 59.3 percent in 2024. The share of conventional RE, hydro plus geothermal, is 17.5 percent, lower than 18.3 percent in 2021 and 17 percent in 2024. Battery and pumped storage remains small, only one percent.

 

Variable and intermittent RE will need more batteries and fast-start gas-oil plants to quickly compensate for supply deficit when there is sudden thick cloud cover, or sudden low wind speed. The cost of ancillary services (AS) in the transmission charge in our monthly electricity bill will keep rising as more AS and standby power plants are contracted to provide exclusive power augmentation to the grid.

 

It is good that big solar plants like Terra Solar in Bulacan-Nueva Ecija have built-in batteries, send stable solar power to the grid and thus, the need for more AS can be controlled and minimized.

 

I have been a non-fan of solar-wind for many years. But recently I softened my opposition to some solar based on stories of many friends who have rooftop solar, or working in hydropower companies with floating solar in the water reservoir. They look logical.

 

But I do not support the pricing of rooftop solar net-metering. Pricing should not be based on average generation charge of distribution utilities (DUs) but on WESM price, which is lower than the former.

 

DUs contract many power supply agreements from many generation companies (gencos), have redundancy of power supply to have adequate reserves in case some gencos suddenly experience technical and unscheduled plant breakdown. This redundancy in power supply means higher generation cost.

 

Rooftop and net-metering solar should not be entitled to this higher overall generation charge, which means consumers who cannot afford rooftop solar pay extra. Net metering solar should be paid only at average WESM price.

 

Offshore wind (OSW), my opposition to it remains. The sea should be open for fishing, navigation, and offshore oil-gas explorations. We need more indigenous oil-gas. Plus the transmission cost of OSW is wildly high and impractical. Solar can be forgivable but OSW is not.

 

To summarize, we need stable grid, stable power supply, to have stable and sustained high growth. We should have more fossil-fuel energy source, oil-gas-coal. Coal in particular  constitutes only 40 percent of total installed capacity in the country but contributes 57 percent of total power generation in 2026.  The dirtiest energy for lighting is candles, not coal.

 

Let us junk climate alarmism. Planet Earth has natural, cyclical warming-cooling climate change since it was born 4.6 billion years ago.

BWorld 862, Energy Trumpflation and the Philippines’ evolving energy mix

Energy Trumpflation and the Philippines’ evolving energy mix

April 14, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/04/14/742460/energy-trumpflation-and-the-philippines-evolving-energy-mix/

 

Here is an update of my weekly monitoring of “Trumpflation” because of the US and Israel’s irresponsible and prolonged war on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz was open until Feb. 27, the day before the US-Israel attacks. Let us look at some notable numbers, after six weeks of war, from Feb. 27 to April 10.

 

1. The price of Dubai crude is up by 50%, WTI or US oil is also up by 44%, meaning even the US is experiencing a tight oil supply. The biggest increase is Russia’s Urals oil which is up by 107%. Petron Philippines was forced to buy oil from Russia to help stabilize domestic oil supply.

 

2. The prices of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) also jumped, with the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) up by 82%. Our big LNG power plants in Batangas, owned by LNGPH, will reflect these higher prices but the good news is that our LNG imports from the Gulf are small.

 

I chanced upon LNGPH President Yari Miralao, he said that “Only 7% of LNGPH’s cargoes since mid-2023 come from the Middle East. The remaining 93% are sourced from other regions. We remain vigilant in managing our supply portfolio and ensuring that fuel for our plants are secured in a timely, reliable, and predictable manner.”

 

3. Coal prices have increased by only 14%. Even many greenie Europeans are firing up their remaining coal plants and shedding plans of their early decommissioning.

 

4. The non-fossil fuels solar-wind index is up by only 1% and 5%, they are not attractive for many energy investors. The nuclear index even contracted by 7%.

 

5. The prices of industrial petrochem and fertilizer products remain high. Methanol is up by 52%, naptha by 53%, sulfur 70%, and urea 40%. Sulfur, phosphate, ammonia, and urea are important components of fertilizer production. Solar and wind power sources cannot produce naptha, methanol, sulfur, etc., only crude oil and natural gas can.

 

6. Our domestic diesel prices have jumped up by 151% while gasoline prices have increased by 68% (see Table 1). The reasons why the increases in domestic oil prices are higher than global crude oil prices include: a.) the Peso/$ depreciation, b.) higher shipping fees including insurance, and, c.) low or non-optimized local diesel storage facilities, among others.

 

Last week the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) released the market operations at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) for March, to be reflected in the April electricity billing.

 

Power demand in March was 509 megawatts (MW) more than in February, while supply in March was 79 MW less than in February. The lower reserve margins led to the higher WESM price of P4.31 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in March from P3.50/kWh in February.

 

I checked the generation mix in the first quarter (January to March), then looked at data from 2021 onwards. Here is some of the evolution in our electricity sourcing.

 

1. For fossil fuels, the share of coal increased from 52% in 2021 to 59% in 2024, and decreased a little to 57% in 2026. The share of natural gas has been consistently declining, from 24% in 2021 to 15.5% in 2026.

 

2. For conventional and stable renewable energy sources, hydro power’s share has increased marginally from 7% in 2021 to 9% in 2026. Geothermal has seen a declining share, from 11% in 2021 to 9% in 2026.

 

3. For variable and unstable renewable energy sources, the share of solar has been rising, from 1.6% in 2021 to 5.5% in 2026, while wind’s share has marginally declined, from 2.2% in 2021 to 2% in 2026. Biomass’ share is flat at 1.2% (see Table 2).

 

Despite the constant demonization of coal by climate alarmists, coal is the most reliable and most affordable electricity source to avoid blackouts. By installed capacity, coal is only 40% of the total, but in actual electricity generation coal is 57% of the total.

 

The dirtiest energy for lighting is candles not coal. We need more coal, not less.

 

On hydro, I remember my tour last month of the Ambuklao hydro plant in Benguet, owned by SN-Aboitiz Power (SNAP), when I was toured by Ambuklao plant manager Hollis Fernandez. This was a day after PEPIF 2026 in Baguio. I was really amazed at how SNAP has significantly expanded Ambuklao’s capacity. It started out producing 75 MW of electricity when it was commissioned in 1956, then stopped operations in 1991 after the big earthquake. SNAP took over in 2007, rehabilitated and modernized it, and got 112.5 MW of power from it. Getting 37.5 MW more power while using the same reservoir and dam is a huge engineering innovation by SNAP.

 

As of this writing, the day before publication, WTI oil is $104.5/barrel, another jump from last Friday’s closing of $96.6/barrel. This comes after the US-Iran negotiation in Pakistan collapsed, meaning prolonged conflict and more Trumpflation.

 

One measure that the Department of Energy can explore is to raise our diesel storage by optimizing any underutilized storage facilities of private oil and LNG companies in the country.

 

I chatted briefly with Arnel Santos, the current COO of Meralco PowerGen (MGEN) Thermal and a former Shell executive for 25 years (starting in Shell Philippines, then moving to Shell Singapore, Malaysia, and Canada). He told me that “The Philippines does have significant storage, most of it sits within commercial terminals that are continuously used for operations… available working tank space for incremental volumes for specific products like diesel and in specific locations… Since we are in crisis all available storage should be leveraged. This is no different from suspending WESM and going on admin pricing.”

 

I hope that Energy Secretary Sharon Garin will consider this proposal, that the Energy department or the Philippine National Oil Co. rent those underutilized tanks at negotiated rates.

PhilStar 88, Trumpflation and economic and energy diplomacy

Trumpflation and economic and energy diplomacy

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

April 9, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/04/09/2519581/trumpflation-and-economic-and-energy-diplomacy

 

Six East Asian countries have reported their March inflation so far, and the initial impact of the Iran war has been embedded. I compare their inflation from March 2025 to March 2026 in percent: Laos 11.2 to 9.7; Vietnam 3.1 to 4.6; Philippines 1.8 to 4.1; Indonesia 1.0 to 3.5; South Korea 2.1 to 2.2 and Thailand 0.8 to -0.1.

 

So of the six countries, Laos and Vietnam have the highest inflation but the Philippines has the largest jump in inflation in one year, more than double, and it is not good.

 

Yesterday the Philippine Statistics Authority also released the labor data for February 2026. A piece of good news: Phl unemployment has declined from 5.8 percent in January to 5.1 percent in February, although this is higher than the February 2025 level of 3.8 percent.

 

The tourism sector is among the worst affected by high oil prices as there are fewer visitors and vacationers. Unlike industry, manufacturing and agriculture, tourism is very labor intensive.

 

A number of hotels, resorts and restos have downsized employment in an otherwise tourism peak season of March to May. Fewer people are going out for vacation, especially to far away places like Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Bicol, Mimaropa, Visayas and Mindanao.

 

As a consolation for the Philippines, many countries in the West are in a worse situation. Their February 2026 unemployment in percent is as follows: US 4.4; Brazil 5.8; Canada 6.7; Italy 5.3; Poland 6.1; Germany 6.3; Belgium 6.4; Austria 8.3; Turkey 8.5 and Sweden 8.8.

 

The high inflation in many countries is a result of the ongoing Trump war against Iran and Iran fighting back against US military bases and facilities in the Gulf. Hence, this should be considered as “Trumpflation.”

 

The Philippine government is responsibly acting on many fronts to mitigate the various energy and economic problems.

 

The Executive Secretary (ES), on behalf of the President, is regularly meeting various sectors. On April 6, ES Ralph Recto, along with Energy Secretary Sharon Garin, Economy Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, PCO Secretary Dave Gomez and other officials, met with business groups and assured them that the country maintains sufficient fuel supply, controls rising logistics costs, manages port congestion, accelerates trade facilitation reforms and expands opportunities in digital and remote work.

 

The business groups included the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry Inc., Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation Inc., Management Association of the Philippines, IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines, Makati Business Club and Ease of Doing Business Foundation Inc.

 

The government and business officials also met with top officials of the 14 domestic oil companies that day. ES Recto said that “With or without this conflict, we should be removing friction costs across the supply chain. Kasama na dyan yung mga hindi kinakailangang checkpoint, lalo na sa mga biyahero ng mga pagkaing mabilis mabulok.”

 

These are good moves by the Office of the President through the ES. There is natural panic in the public, so this helps calm the markets and assure them that foreign and energy diplomacy are working and that domestic ease of doing business is continuing.

 

Other policy measures that the President may consider are the following.

 

One. A policy signal that the Philippines will further develop our domestic oil, gas and coal resources, and that we embrace fossil fuels rather than demonize them.

 

Two, expand energy cooperation with China and other neighbors to jointly develop more offshore oil and gas.

 

Three, continue energy diplomacy, with more oil and gas supply from more countries. Fertilizers, in particular, are crucial, especially as the rice planting season may start by May or early June.

 

Four, suspend or reduce the oil excise tax: diesel from P6/liter back to zero, gasoline from P10/liter to P4, if not zero and LPG back to zero. Windfall revenue from higher VAT collection per liter can partly compensate for reduced excise tax collections.

 

Those taxes were invented by previous administrations based on fictional problems like oil-gas-coal “cause unprecedented global warming/climate change.” Climate change of the warming-cooling cycle has been happening for the past 4.6 billion years of Earth’s existence. 

 

Five, avoid new subsidies on top of existing subsidies funded by borrowings. Discontinue or limit subsidy to public transport if the government cannot subsidize also the tractors, harvesters, trucks, irrigation pumps and fishing boats that use diesel.

 

Six, do not cave in to lobbies to suspend the VAT for oil and electricity. Consider a VAT cut from 12 percent to 10 percent, even eight percent, with zero exemptions to any sector except raw agri-fishery products.

 

Seven, continue energy conservation, and limit, if not cancel, government officials’ foreign and domestic trips and meetings related to anti-fossil fuel and climate narratives. We need more fossil fuels, not less.

 

Eight, ask the DILG and MMDA, Metro Manila and provincial cities like Baguio, to suspend number coding with penalties. High gasoline and diesel prices are enough reason for people to leave their cars for non-important trips, thus immediately reducing traffic congestion.

 

I mention this because last Holy Week I was in Baguio with my family for an overnight stay. On Maundy Thursday, we were about to leave the city when the Baguio PNP flagged me near Burnham Park for a “coding violation” and slapped me with a P500 penalty. The place was not congested, there were many open parking spaces on the roadside.

 

Baguio City had few visitors last Holy Week, unlike in previous years. The Baguio city government should be grateful for the few visitors that come to their city and spend money in their hotels, restaurants and public markets. Baguio should not get more money via the lousy “crime” of driving in their city on a coding day, in a supposedly forgiving Holy week. 

 

As often said, the purpose of the bureaucracy is to expand the bureaucracy. That is the Baguio City government’s style.

BWorld 861, Some economic and energy trends in Q1

Some economic and energy trends in Q1

April 7, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/04/07/740992/some-economic-and-energy-trends-in-q1/

 

Last week, Vietnam released their GDP growth for the first quarter (Q1) of this year, the first country in the world to do so so far. So, I went back to look at their Q1 growth in previous years: 3.4% in 2023, 6% in 2024, 7% in 2025, and 7.8% in 2026. Vietnam rocks, with rising growth despite worsening global economic condition this year because of the Iran war.

 

The Philippines will release its Q1 GDP performance on May 7. This has been our Q1 GDP growth in previous years: 6.4% in 2023, 5.9% in 2024, and 5.4% in 2025, a declining trend. Our Q4 2025 growth was a dismal 3%, and our Q1 this year looks like it will be another dismal number, mainly because of high energy and transportation prices and overall inflation.

 

Vietnam and South Korea were the first two countries in the world to release their exports data for March. They also released their inflation data for the same period. So, I also looked at some European countries that released their inflation numbers early.

 

South Korea’s exports exploded to $86 billion this March, a 47.7% increase over $58 billion in March 2025. The main reason — South Korea exported lots of computer chips and semiconductors as other countries rushed to import from them while the supply of various petrochem products from the Middle East has been limited if not choked.

 

Vietnam’s exports also jumped, to $46 billion in March, a 20.2% increase over that a year ago.

 

Vietnam and Indonesia experienced higher inflation last month than they did in March in previous years, but South Korea was able to rein in their consumer prices this year, keeping them at 2025’s level. The European countries also experienced higher inflation so far this year except for Italy (see Table 1).

 

OIL PRICES

Last week I was interviewed by two reporters — from Philippine Star (Brix Lelis) and Bilyonaryo News Channel (Joash Malimban) — on why Philippine domestic oil prices remain high even if Philippine-bound oil tankers are allowed free exit at the Strait of Hormuz. I explained the higher prices of Dubai oil compared to oil from the US (WTI), Europe (Brent), and Russia (Urals) as we get about 98% of our crude oil from the Middle East, the depreciation of the Peso (from P57/$ on Feb. 27, the day before the war started, to the current P60/$), the higher cost of insurance per tanker, etc.

 

I checked our trade data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) for January and February. There is one noticeable thing about the period — our imports of crude oil declined significantly, from $669 million in 2025 to only $285 million in 2026, a big contraction of 57.4%. Meanwhile imports of other products — capital goods, raw materials and intermediate goods, and consumer goods — were flat or higher than their levels in 2025.

 

Our imports of refined petroleum products — diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, and other refined fuels — increased, from $1.97 billion in 2025 to $2.04 billion in 2026. Meaning only crude oil imports declined during that period, but finished oil products imports increased (see Table 2).

 

I asked an oil-gas expert, a Filipino executive in one of the country’s biggest energy companies, if the low crude imports this year was the main reason why we have high domestic oil prices. And if Petron, the only oil refinery company in the country, had under imported oil before the war started, so they have had to quickly source more expensive oil elsewhere by March. I also sent him the PSA excel file of imports.

 

His quick answer was “no,” saying that “the table does not show inventory levels, refinery runs, or timing of purchases, so it cannot establish that conclusion. There is some seasonality in demand, with consumption usually easing after the year-end peak. The effect is not large enough to explain a drop of this size. It may explain part of the overall decline in fuel imports, but not the sharp reduction in crude. What the data does point to is a change in supply mix. Possible reasons include refining economics, lower refinery utilization, or timing of crude cargo arrivals, with more reliance on imported finished fuels.

 

“To get to the root cause, a few areas would need to be checked: Petron refinery utilization in Jan.-Feb. 2025 versus 2026; any maintenance or operational issues affecting runs; Singapore refining margins and product crack spreads over the same period; relative economics of importing products versus refining crude; crude and product inventory levels at the start of 2026; and, whether crude cargoes were deferred from January-February into March.

 

“In short, the drop in crude imports is clear, but it does not by itself explain higher domestic oil prices. The data is more consistent with a shift in how supply was sourced rather than a shortfall caused by under-importing.”

 

Whew. That’s a mouthful of high caliber insights from an engineer-finance guy with decades of experience.

 

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has gone wild and irrational in further escalating and prolonging the Iran conflict. There is nothing we can do here to change his policies.

 

What we can adjust are domestic policies: in the short-run, engage in more energy and foreign affairs diplomacy to get more oil-gas from more countries, and make agreements on energy cooperation with our neighbors in the South China Sea. In the long run, we should embrace fossil fuels and explore more oil, gas, and coal sources in the country plus nuclear energy. We should junk climate alarmism and prioritize energy realism and sustain high economic growth.

 

I want to mention three energy conglomerates that are keeping and expanding their gas-coal facilities: Aboitiz Power, Meralco PowerGen (MGEN), and San Miguel Corp. They all have coal plants, and they are all partners in LNGPH, the owner and operator of three big LNG facilities in Batangas (South Premiere Power Corp. or SPPC, Excellent Energy Resources, Inc. or EERI, and Linseed). MGEN in particular is very serious about having a nuclear power facility very soon. Go for it, MGEN.

PN 3, Coal plants in Luzon and Palawan

Coal plants in Luzon and Palawan

OPINION, PROVINCES & PROSPERITY

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

April 07, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/coal-plants-in-luzon-and-palawan/

 

The continuing Iran war has led to high oil-gas prices worldwide affecting not only the cost of transportation (air, land, sea), fertilizers, petrochemical products, also the cost of electricity in places that depend on oil gensets for electricity generation.

 

Palawan, Mindoro Oriental and Occidental, Romblon, Masbate, Marinduque, Camiguin, other off-grid island-provinces in the Philippines are running mostly on diesel or bunker fuel gensets. The cost of diesel power generation is easily P20-25/kwh before the Iran war, now it could be at least P40/kwh, generation cost alone.

 

Coal plants win competitive selection process (CSP) biddings at P5-6/kwh, meaning the coal power company can still make a profit at that price while giving 24/7 electricity to the private distribution utility or electric cooperatives that contracted the coal plant.

 

Below I list the provinces in Luzon that host big coal plants. Many people who dislike coal say that the energy source causes big health problems, economic damage and related problems. So I included also the provincial GDP of those provinces, also those provinces that do not host coal plants like Palawan, Mindoro Oriental and Occidental.

 

Coal-hosting provinces have big provincial GDP. They have been hosting those coal plants way back in the 1980s (Batangas), 1990s (Bulacan, Pangasinan, Quezon, Zambales), and the 2000s. These provinces are not known to have sickly people compared to provinces that do not host coal plants.

 

Table 1. Coal plants in Luzon

 

Compared to our neighbors in East Asia, the Philippines has the smallest coal power generation of only 79.4 terawatt-hours (1 TWH = 1,000 GWH or 1 million MWH). Greenie Japan and S. Korea have coal per capita generation that are 3.5x and 5.2x larger than the Philippines (see table 2).

 

Table 2. Coal power generation in terawatt-hours (TWH) and per capita, East Asia

 

 

Global coal prices have also increased but at lower percent level than oil or gas. For instance, Newcastle coal has increased from $118/ton last February 27 (day before the attack of Iran) to $138/ton in March 25.

 

The Universal Charge for Missionary Electrification (UC-ME) is rising for electricity consumers of on-grid customers because they subsidize the consumers of off-grid places and provinces. Soon that subsidy will decline if not be abolished and consumers of off-grid provinces will endure very high cost of electricity from diesel and bunker fuel.

 

An option is to have coal plants, or nuclear plants that do not need any subsidy. Solar and wind power will occupy huge land area and cannot provide 24/7 electricity.

----------

See also:

PN 1, Provincial GDP, challenges, and opportunities for Palawan, March 20, 2026

PN 2, Ho Chi Minh and Puerto Princesa, some observations, April 03, 2026

BWorld 860, Trump’s war and energy damage

Trump’s war and energy damage

March 31, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/03/31/739830/trumps-war-and-energy-damage/

 

We are now on the fifth week of US President Donald Trump’s war against Iran and things are still bad.

 

I have seen some good and bad news in BusinessWorld recently. The good news: “Marcos says Philippine oil supply secure beyond 45 days” (March 26), “ASEAN summit to go ahead in May, but shortened to ‘bare bones’ program due to Middle East conflict” (March 27), and, “Manila, Beijing resume talks on South China Sea, energy security” (March 29). The bad news: “PHL growth forecast cut to 4.5% — ING” (March 29), and, “Oil-shock vulnerability blamed on deregulation” (March 29).

 

Country leaders, especially those from East Asia, must meet in person and craft various options to sustain growth as all of them are more badly affected by the Trump war compared to Europe, or North and South America, or Africa. They can get their oil and gas from their respective continents, but East Asia is highly dependent on Middle East oil and gas.

 

The Philippines should prioritize energy cooperation with China, Vietnam, and Malaysia, not bickering with China. This should include wider exploration and development of offshore oil and gas resources in the South China Sea, and sharing of these resources, technology, and investments which will produce more common benefits.

 

And it is simply wrong to blame oil deregulation for the current oil price shocks. We would do better to blame the climate alarmism that demonizes further development of oil, gas, and coal production, which are all very useful.

 

The prices of all fossil fuel products have risen. People will hate the higher prices, but they cannot honestly say, “Leave fossil fuels, save the planet.” They will prefer to save their economies, jobs, and businesses — and oil, gas, and coal produce many of the industrial by-products they use, like petrochemicals, fertilizers, and coal ash for cement production.

 

Non-fossil fuel sources of power — solar, wind, and nuclear — have experienced contractions in prices. Meaning investors and businesses are not rushing to go there, as they are not substitutes for fossil fuels.

 

Among the industrial and petrochemical products are bitumen used for asphalt and road construction, methanol for adhesives and foams, naptha for producing plastics and chemicals, sulfur and urea for fertilizers, styrene and butadiene monomers to produce synthetic rubber tires for our cars, trucks, tractors and even bicycles.

 

These are some of the byproducts that crude oil and gas can produce. Wind, solar, and biomass cannot produce these. Hence, investors are not rushing to wind-solar amidst the current oil and gas price and supply shocks.

 

Executive Secretary Ralph G. Recto announced last Sunday that the government has secured a firm order of 1.04 million barrels of diesel; the first batch will arrive this week. He added that the country will receive a steady supply of coal from Indonesia. This is good. We should see more energy diplomacy, more assurances of oil, gas, and coal supply via trade, not more war mongering.

 

Finally, some quick comments on three issues.

 

1. Some big solar plants are already in place, so we should use them. Yesterday Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN) announced that its affiliate, Terra Solar Philippines, Inc. (MTerra Solar), has successfully energized the first 250 megawatts (MW) of its solar capacity. So it is now starting as an electricity producer and contributing to the country’s power needs.

 

MTerra Solar also energized the first of its battery energy storage system (BESS). It can deliver up to 450 megawatt-hours (MWh) of energy to the grid at night. This is largest operating BESS in the Philippines.

 

MGEN President and CEO Manny Rubio optimistically and correctly stated that “MTerra Solar plays an important role in supporting the country’s near-term energy requirements. The project’s phased energization enables earlier delivery of capacity to the grid, helping efforts to maintain stable electricity prices amid evolving global conditions.”

 

2. The real purpose of the suspension of market transactions of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) is not clear because market suspension is normally done during calamities like strong typhoons and earthquakes, when power plants and transmission or distribution lines are knocked out resulting in power shortages. Any available power plant anywhere then must dispatch power, and these running plants can dictate pricing, so “administered pricing” by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is done. Administered price is computed by averaging the last four weeks of similar days at similar intervals in prices.

 

But currently all generation companies (gencos) are available except those with scheduled maintenance. An increase in their prices is due to the rise in marginal costs, the fuel costs, and not to “market abuse” because competition is still working. If the government wants to conserve fuel and shut down certain power plants like those using diesel and bunker fuel, the easiest thing to do is for the Energy department to tell them to shut down, and not suspend market operations.

 

3. Earth Hour 2026, which was held last Saturday, was another failure in asking the public to “celebrate darkness for one hour.” I checked the website of the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines last Saturday night and saw that there was no decline, not even a blip, in electricity demand from 8:30-9:30 p.m. that day. People want brightness, not darkness. They want energy abundance, not energy poverty.

PhilStar 87, Energy diplomacy and DOE leadership

Energy diplomacy and DOE leadership

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

April 2, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/04/02/2518414/energy-diplomacy-and-doe-leadership

 

Energy diplomacy is an emerging important track to ensure economic stability of many countries that are badly suffering from low supply of oil-gas and hence, high prices of these important commodities. Oil-gas do not only mean diesel and gasoline, LPG and electricity. Oil-gas also mean  naptha and bitumen, methanol and polyethelene, synthetic rubber and fertilizers, and many more.

 

Consider these recent reports in The Philippine STAR: “Recto: 1.04 million barrels of diesel expected to arrive this week” (March 29), “Fuel supply issues shut more than 300 gas stations” (March 30), “Petron confirms 2.48M barrels of Russian oil purchased, says it may buy more” (March 30), “Philippines’ fuel supply extended to nearly 51 days” (March 31).

 

Securing alternative supply of oil and gas in a short period of time is good energy diplomacy done by Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Sharon Garin. The DOE facilitated the 2.48 million barrels imported by Petron from Russia while negotiating with other countries for continued or new supply of oil-gas-coal that help strengthen our domestic energy security while global energy uncertainties continue.

 

Last March 29, Executive Secretary Ralph Recto issued a good statement lauding both Petron and Garin, “Petron’s pledge that it will tirelessly secure both traditional and alternative sources to keep our supply stable should be a source of calm and comfort…. the oil diplomacy led by Secretary Sharon Garin has resulted in the firm order of 1.04 million barrels of diesel... From Indonesia also comes the ironclad guarantee of a steady supply of coal.”

 

Last March 26, the DOE received the first shipment of 22.58 million liters or 142,000 barrels of diesel imported under its Emergency Energy Security Program of Executive Order 110 to strengthen the country’s oil supply. DOE attached agency Philippine National Oil Co. (PNOC) and PNOC Exploration Corp. (PNOC-EC) facilitated this with the goal of securing up to two million barrels of additional oil supply for the country.

 

Petron lost four million barrels of canceled Middle East crude when the Strait of Hormuz was choked – two million barrels on Feb. 28 or Day One of attack of Iran, then another two million barrels on March 7. Petron, with the go-signal from the DOE and DOF, negotiated with Russia to keep its refinery in Bataan, the only oil refinery in the country, running until at least June. Petron produces 30 percent of the Philippines’ fuel market and roughly 98 percent of our crude imports come from  the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE).

 

Garin’s oil diplomacy led to two batches of 700,000 barrels each or 1.4 million barrels that have already arrived. Plus another 1.04 million barrels mentioned by Recto, total purchase of 2.48 million barrels.

 

The phased delivery schedule of the 1.04 million barrels through PNOC-EC are as follows: 142,000 barrels from Japan, delivered last March 26 in La Union and Batangas; 300,000 barrels from Malaysia and Singapore due in early April; 300,000 barrels from India due in  mid-April; and 300,000 barrels from Oman via Singapore due on end-April.

 

This is good oil diplomacy by the DOE. More oil from more countries outside our usual sources Saudi Arabia and UAE. And scheduled in phases to ensure sustained domestic availability while overall external supply uncertainty remains.

 

Garin also added that the DOE, with support from the Department of Foreign Affairs, is exploring new supply partnerships with Argentina, Australia, Brunei, Canada and Colombia.

 

As of March 27, inventory announced by the DOE showed the following number of days that finished products will last: gasoline 60 days, diesel 47 days, jet fuel 63 days, fuel oil 47 days, LPG 34 days.

 

Garin is correct to assure the public that “as we consume we add… we have a continuing supply… lead time to order more while we are consuming for the month of April.”

 

DOE plus DOF, DFA, BSP (for foreign currency use), with policy guidance from the President and the Executive Secretary, this is whole-of-government approach that converts Cabinet-level diplomatic engagement into actual oil deliveries.

 

Oil-gas supply stability should continue as the government prepares for the rollout of the Strategic Investment Priority Plan (SIPP). Committed investments, new or expansion of existing ones, should be given assurance that they will not be hampered by energy uncertainties.

 

Finally, my take on two related issues – “Libreng Sakay” program and oil excise tax suspension.

 

The  Libreng Sakay (free ride) program by the government should be done more by the local government units (LGUs) and less by the national government through DOTr and DOE. Recto’s statement lauding and encouraging the local governments of Quezon City and Manila for their Libreng Sakay initiative to their commuting residents is correct. He also lauded businesses that deferred price increases so long as they can. These are “damayan” moves by the LGUs and private businesses with the public and the national government.

 

Suspension of oil excise tax should prevail over subsidy for public transportation because we need to extend support also for tractors, harvesters, irrigation pumps, trucks, fishing boats and other machines used in farming-fishery. It is not fair that government will subsidize only the urban-based public transportation but ignore the needs of the rural-based machines and agriculture transportation.

 

Revenue losses should be compensated by spending cut somewhere and not by additional borrowings. Besides, the DOF has windfall revenues from higher VAT collections as oil prices remain high. VAT at P55/liter (before the Iran war stated) means P6.60/liter revenue while VAT at P120/liter means P14.40/liter revenue, or revenue windfall of P7.80/liter. Suspension of the P10/liter excise tax becomes bearable.