BWorld 832, A growth slowdown and declining inflation, unemployment

A growth slowdown and declining inflation, unemployment

November 11, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/11/11/711174/a-growth-slowdown-and-declining-inflation-unemployment/

 

Last week the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released three important pieces of economic data for 2025 — our low inflation rate of 1.7% for October; a low unemployment rate of 3.8% for September; and modest GDP growth of 4% for the third quarter (Q3) of this year.

 

So, two pieces of good news, and one rather poor piece of news on growth — it is lower than the 5.5% to 6.5% full-year growth target expected by the government’s economic team, and also lower than the projection of 18 economists polled by BusinessWorld whose median projection was 5.3% for Q3.

 

Last month, the IMF released an update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database. In one table here, I show the GDP size of countries and economies at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) values. Then their respective growth over the last three years, and my updated quarterly global monitoring of GDP performance.

 

Looking at it, one sees that China remains the largest economy in the world and its gap with the US has increased from 2024 to 2025. This year Taiwan overtook Australia for the 20th spot, Vietnam overtook Bangladesh for the 23rd spot, and the Philippines is supposed to overtake Malaysia for the 30th spot but with the growth slowdown, this may not happen.

 

From Q1-Q3 2025, of the top 50 largest economies in the world, the fastest growing has been Vietnam with 7.8%, second is Taiwan with 7%. India has no Q3 data released yet, but if it is 6.5% or higher it will be in second place and Taiwan in third. China is fourth, Indonesia and Philippines are tied in fifth place with 5% (see Table 1).

 

DECLINING INFLATION

Our declining inflation rate — from 6% in 2023 to 3.2% in 2024 and 1.7% from January-September this year — is a welcome development for our people.

 

In a press statement, Department of Finance (DoF) Secretary Ralph G. Recto highlighted the “government’s strong commitment to protecting the country’s poorest households, keeping headline inflation low at 1.7% and only -0.4% for the bottom 30% in October through sustained measures to stabilize prices and maintain economic momentum.”

 

Yes, I see that. The DoF and the rest of the economic team should continue the low-inflation policy measures as these will have short- and medium-term positive impacts in improving consumer confidence. And this will translate into higher household consumption, which is about 74% of GDP.

 

Meanwhile, Japan is now the “inflation capital” of East Asia, while China is in deflation mode, from a low 0.2% in 2023 and 2024 to -0.1% this year (see Table 2).

 

DECLINING UNEMPLOYMENT

Our low unemployment rate of 3.8% for September is similar to the full-year unemployment rate of 2024. It is at an all-time low since the 1980s. Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman said in a Viber message that “government spending in various sectors has contributed to more job opportunities for our people.”

 

The Philippines should grow 6-8% yearly for at least seven years to land in the top 25 largest economies in the world, overtaking Bangladesh and even Thailand. But with the ongoing corruption scandals and souring of investments, the more realistic growth target would be 5-6% yearly until 2028. High sustained growth should translate into more jobs and business opportunities for our people, which will bring down the unemployment rate further to 3.5% or lower.

PhilStar 67, Storms, DUs and ECs

Storms, DUs and ECs

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

November 13, 2025 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2025/11/13/2486758/storms-dus-and-ecs

 

This year is another “year without summer” in the Philippines with rains in the past 11 months, similar to the years 2020-2023 when there were 12 months of rains. Exception was 2024 with four hot and dry months because of the big El Nino while we experienced prolonged La Nina from 2020-2023, then this year. Cooling prevailed over warming, at least in the Philippines.

 

So far, 21 storms have entered the Philippines this year and more than half made actual landfalls. The most recent were Kalmaegi (local name Tino) that devastated Cebu and other provinces in the Visayas and killed 232 people with over 100 missing, then Fung-wong (local name Uwan) that devastated several provinces in Cagayan Valley and North Luzon.

 

Last Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DOE) gave a press conference on the status of power restoration in the provinces affected by both Kalmaegi and Fung-Wong. Speakers included DOE Secretary Sharon Garin and Undersecretary Felix Fuentebella, National Power Corp. president Jericho Nograles, officials from National Grid Corp. of the Philippines, National Electrification Administration and Meralco.

 

Meralco reported almost 100 percent power restoration by Nov. 11 while many electric cooperatives (ECs) in Luzon have energized only 64 percent of the municipalities affected.

 

NGCP reported that in the Visayas, 55 transmission lines were affected but all restored by Nov. 8. In Luzon, 108 transmission lines were affected but 83 have been restored by morning of Nov. 11. From the updates by NGCP, only four lines remain unavailable as of Nov. 12 morning. I appreciate NGCP’s frequent updates, something like four to six times a day and night, including the affected DUs and ECs.

 

Meralco Power Gen (MGen) announced that during severe storm Kalmaegi, they were able to maintain operations of their power plants in Cebu and Iloilo -- Cebu Energy Development Corp., Toledo Power Co., Panay Energy Development Corp. and Panay Power Corp. All four are thermal plants and proved resilient despite strong winds and rains and the absence of sun for days. That is one beauty and advantage of thermal power plants over intermittent plants.

 

In hard-hit Cebu that experienced few days of blackout and wipe-out of many houses during Kalmaegi heavy flooding, the Visayan Electric Corp. (VECO) announced that by Nov. 10 they have restored power to 95 percent of their customers. Its sister companies like Davao Light and Power also provided assistance to them particularly on damaged lines, collapsed poles and replacement of damaged equipment.

 

The DOE presscon and reporting of various agencies, government and private was good in informing the public the level of power restorations and where power gaps are still present.

 

Modernizing electric cooperatives,the case of BATELEC II

 

Two weeks ago, the Batangas Forum for Good Governance and Development Association Inc. issued a statement supporting the proposed joint venture between Meralco and Batangas II Electric Cooperative (BATELEC II) as the latter continues to provide poor and unreliable service to its customers in franchise area.

 

The forum is composed of business and civic leaders, professionals and residents of Batangas. They issued a resolution dated Oct. 29, 2025 and signed by its chairman, president, vice president and board of trustees.

 

The group cited the frequent power interruption problems that disrupt business operations and stifled growth in the affected cities and municipalities of the province. They also cited Meralco’s financial, operational and technical track record, that the private distribution utility (DU) can bring in systems, investments and operational discipline needed to deliver more dependable service to local enterprises and communities — as it has successfully done in Batangas City, Sto. Tomas City and San Pascual.

 

BATELEC II franchise area includes Lipa and Tanauan cities, plus 15 municipalities -- Alitagtag, Balete, Cuenca, Laurel, Lobo, Malvar, Mataas na Kahoy, Mabini, Padre Garcia, Rosario, San Jose, San Juan, Talisay, Taysan and Tingloy.

 

Good move by the Batangas Forum. ECs like BATELEC II will not move easily without clamor from its consumer base. Electric cooperatives (ECs) by nature are pampered by politics and politicians, their inefficiencies and wastes are subsidized by taxpayers via subsidies and loans given by the National Electrification Administration (NEA).

 

As shown in the DOE press conference, it is the private DUs like Meralco and VECO that are able to quickly re-energize the storms-affected areas compared to areas covered by ECs.

 

DUs are superior to ECs on two fronts: (1) DUs are monitored by SEC and not NEA, SEC does not and cannot extend taxpayers money, NEA does. (2) DUs are corporations subject to possible bankruptcy and hence are strict in their financial and technical operations, while ECs are non-corporate cooperatives that are shielded from bankruptcy via NEA protection and political favoritism. There is moral hazard problem when ECs remain shielded from bankruptcy.

 

For now, I support the Meralco-BATELEC II joint venture as short-term solution to the frequent power distribution problems suffered by residents of the province. Electricity supply there should stabilize, frequent interruption should be avoided. Substantial capital expenditures to modernize the system and some price hike will be expected but it will be justified by more business expansion and job creation-retention in the province.

 

Over the long term, I believe that all ECs should become private DUs. Real public service to electricity consumers is the abolition of threats of blackout, the assurance of power supply and distribution stability, reliability and security. Cheap but frequent blackout is anti-consumer.

BWorld 831, The ASEAN Summit and Philippine trade; medium-term fiscal projections

The ASEAN Summit and Philippine trade; medium-term fiscal projections

November 4, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/11/04/709759/the-asean-summit-and-philippine-trade-medium-term-fiscal-projections/

 

The ASEAN summit in Malaysia ended on Oct. 28, then the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) Summit in South Korea ended on Nov. 1. Both annual events focused on trade and economic diplomacy. Then the rotating ASEAN chairmanship for 2026 was passed from Kuala Lumpur to Manila starting Jan. 1 next year.

 

Also last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the country’s international merchandise trade statistics for September. In this column, I compare our January-September data for the last three years.

 

Our merchandise or goods imports have breached $100 billion in January-September this year, and the bulk of that came from China whose share in our total imports has been rising fast, from 23% of total imports in 2023 to 28.6% of total in 2025. The shares of Japan, the US, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, and Australia are declining.

 

Our exports have recovered and reached $63 billion. Our main exports market remains the US, followed by Hong Kong, Japan, and China (see Table 1).

 

Various surveys show that among ASEAN countries, when it comes to foreign policy the Philippines is the most anti-China and pro-US. But in actual trade, like merchandise imports, Philippine businesses and the public favor China and not the US.

 

The combined share of China and Hong Kong in imports in 2025 was 30.1%, much larger than the combined share of the US, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Australia, Germany…

 

China is a good source of useful physical products like trucks and buses, gadgets and computers, clothes and shoes, while the US is a good source of entertainment like Netflix and Hollywood movies, YouTube, UFC, the NBA, Taylor Swift concerts etc. But we cannot industrialize with entertainment.

 

PERENNIAL DEFICIT

Our current and medium-term fiscal condition remains in perennial deficit. Our expenditures endlessly rise even without an economic or health crisis, and our revenues cannot cope with it. The annual deficit of P1.55 trillion a year in the last three years is expected to remain flat in the next three years (see Table 2).

 

At current rate of increase in our public debt, even if we have a deficit of zero in 2026, with expenditures cut significantly so that there is a balanced budget (revenues equal to expenditures), our outstanding debt stock of P17.5 trillion at around 6% average interest rate (especially the 10-year government bonds) will still increase to P18.05 trillion next year just on the increase in interest payments alone.

 

This means that we should aspire not only for a balanced budget but a budget surplus. Many current subsidies and freebies must be discontinued, and privatization of government lands and assets should continue.

 

Meanwhile, on the continuing corruption scandal in the country, these reports in BusinessWorld are generally good: “PHL gets ‘verbal’ assurances from Fitch, Moody’s on outlook” (Oct. 28), “Unprogrammed allocations cap seen deterring GAA ‘insertions’” (Oct. 29), “Budget seen leaving no room for long-term spending items” (Oct. 30), “Philippine government’s outstanding debt slips to P17.46 trillion” (Oct. 31), and, “Q3 underspending to ‘temporarily’ drag growth — Recto” (Nov. 3).

 

I can understand the concern of Finance Secretary Ralph Recto. Some important infrastructure projects that can contribute to increased productivity would be affected as public suspicion remains high. The problem, however, is that as the budget of the Department of Public Works and Highways has been cut, other sectors could opportunistically sneak in and raise their budgets for 2026, so that the projected deficit will remain high.

PN 1, Provincial GDP, challenges, and opportunities for Palawan

Provincial GDP, challenges, and opportunities for Palawan

PROVINCES & PROSPERITY

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

January 13, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/provincial-gdp-challenges-and-opportunities-for-palawan/

 

Aside from producing data on the national gross domestic product (GDP), the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) also produces regional and provincial product accounts, or provincial GDP, including those of highly urbanized cities (HUCs).

 

For my maiden column here, I begin with the GDP size of Puerto Princesa City (PPC) and other HUCs in the Visayas and Mindanao. The HUCs in Luzon, such as those in Metro Manila, Cavite, and Bulacan, are not included for now.

 

PPC recorded fast provincial GDP growth in 2023 and 2024, similar to the growth seen in Bacolod and Iloilo cities. However, PPC’s provincial GDP remains small, the second smallest among the HUCs, after Tacloban City (see table).

 

Provincial GDP of HUCs in Mimaropa, the Visayas, and Mindanao, in ₱ billion, except %.

 

Source: PSA https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/ppa/tables 

 

PPC is largely a services-oriented economy. Out of its ₱81 billion GDP in 2024, ₱62.6 billion came from services. By sub-sector, transportation and storage contributed ₱13.8 billion, trade and repair of vehicles accounted for ₱10.3 billion, accommodation and food services generated ₱7.4 billion, while finance and insurance contributed ₱7.7 billion.

 

PPC’s agriculture, fishery, and forestry sector is small, at only ₱2.2 billion in 2024. The industry sector recorded ₱16.3 billion, of which construction accounted for ₱6.1 billion, while electricity, steam, and water contributed ₱7.6 billion.

 

Thus, the major challenge for PPC is to raise the contribution of agriculture, fishery, and forestry from about ₱2 billion to at least ₱4 billion through expanded food processing and manufacturing.

 

Manufacturing and services such as hotels, resorts, malls, and hospitals require large and reliable electricity supply. PPC and Palawan as a whole must develop large power plants that are dependable and not dependent on the weather.

BWorld 830, Reducing spending and public debt, raising credit ratings

Reducing spending and public debt, raising credit ratings

October 30, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/10/30/708835/reducing-spending-and-public-debt-raising-credit-ratings/

 

Last Monday, Oct. 27, I attended the 2025 Fiscal Policy Conference organized by the Department of Budget and Management (DBM), held at the UP College of Law. In the afternoon there were simultaneous panel sessions. I attended the panels on “Digitalization and Process Innovations” with three speakers: Department of Finance (DoF) Undersecretary Renato Reside, Jr., Ateneo de Manila University Professor Albert Matthew Alejo, and Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) Undersecretary Joseph Capuno.

 

In the second set of simultaneous discussions, I attended the panel on “Fiscal Stability and Sustainability,” also with three speakers: Ateneo Professor Elvira de Lara-Tuprio, Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department (CPBRD) Director Ricardo Mira, and Bangko Sentral Director John Michael Hallig.

 

Among the topics discussed in the two sets of panels was why countries with high Public Debt/GDP ratios of above 100% (like Singapore, Japan, the US, France) have high credit ratings of A+ to AAA and hence, can borrow at lower interest rates, while countries with Debt/GDP ratios below 90% (like India, Thailand, and the Philippines) have lower credit ratings of BBB.

 

One explanation given is that high ratings countries have higher GDP per capita income, of $30,000 or higher, while those with BBB have GDP per capita of below $8,000. But there are exceptions here. There are economies with low Debt/GDP ratios and per capita income and high ratings — Taiwan and Hong Kong (see Table 1).

 

The Philippine economic team — the secretaries of the DoF, DBM, DEPDev, and the Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs — continue to aspire and hope that we reach credit ratings of A before the end of the Marcos Jr. administration. And rightly so because our annual borrowings are not declining despite the absence of any economic or virus-caused crisis like the lockdowns of 2020-2021.

 

Before the lockdown, the Philippines’ outstanding debt (actual plus guaranteed) was only P8.22 trillion in 2019. Then it jumped to P10.25 trillion in 2020, P12.15 trillion in 2021, P13.82 trillion in 2022, P14.97 trillion in 2023, P16.40 trillion in 2024, and P17.81 trillion in August 2025. In other words, public debt was rising by an average of P1.64 trillion/year, which is roughly the budget deficit of around P1.55 trillion/year over the same period.

 

Guaranteed debt is generally flat below P400 billion, it is the actual debt that keeps rising — P17.47 trillion as of last August (see Table 2).

 

One thing I noticed on Monday, was that in order to reduce public debt, there were few or no proposals from the speakers to make significant spending cuts, to reign in expenditures at least to balance with projected revenues.

 

Perhaps that is one reason why the DBM invited me to participate in the forum, to inject this point of view. But I chose not to ask questions during the panels as there was little time. I preferred to listen and understand the concepts and methodologies that the academics and speakers from government presented, including their complicated Greek mathematical and regression equations.

 

One thing I notice among the agencies — if they see that new sources of revenue or borrowing are available next year, they quickly invent new ways of spending and new subsidies or expand existing ones. High Debt/GDP ratios and high interest payments (an average of around P2.6 billion/day in 2025) do not seem to bother them. They just focus on asking for even higher budgets every single year despite the absence of a clear economic or social crisis which are the basis of raising subsidies in the first place, like the lockdowns of 2020-2021.

 

Finally, that military and uniformed personnel (MUP) pensions, from an average of about P110 billion/year until 2024, jumped to P144 billion this year and are proposed to increase to P198 billion next year. That is one clear example of wasteful and abusive spending that will penalize taxpayers today and tomorrow. Congress and the President should rein in that spending. Better yet, if active MUP officials were more sensitive to taxpayers and admit the public finance burden of the scheme, they themselves volunteer to contribute to their own pension someday. And stop the injustice of pension indexation to the salaries of active MUPs.

PhilStar 66, Coal and high growth, the numbers

Coal and high growth, the numbers

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

November 6, 2025 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2025/11/06/2485082/coal-and-high-growth-numbers

 

GDP growth is measured not only in percent change over the previous years but also in actual GDP size measured in billion dollars in current values or purchasing power parity (PPP) values. For this paper, I will compare the GDP performance of selected major economies based on their use of coal power generation.

 

Coal and economic growth

 

Two groups of countries are considered: Group A are countries that expanded their coal generation measured in terawatt-hours (TWH), or expanded the percent share of coal to total  generation or “C/T ratio” from 2004 to 2024, also experienced higher expansion of GDP size at PPP values over the same period. Group B are countries that decreased their coal generation and also experienced slower expansion of GDP size. Here are the numbers.

For Group A: China coal generation increased from 1,722 TWH in 2004 to 5,827 TWH in 2024 or 57.8 percent of total global coal generation of 10,613 TWH; its GDP size expanded from $5.21 trillion to $38.15 trillion or 7.3 times expansion.

 

India’s C/T ratio increased from 66 percent in 2004 to 75 percent in 2024, its GDP size expanded from $2.76 trillion to $16.19 trillion or 7.3 times expansion. Vietnam’s C/T ratio  increased from 16 percent to 50 percent, GDP size expanded 5.4 times. Indonesia’s C/T ratio expanded from 40 percent to 61 percent, its GDP size expanded 4.2 times. Philippines’ C/T ratio increased from 29 percent to 61 percent, GDP size also expanded 4.2 times.

 

For Group B: US’ C/T ratio declined from 51 percent in 2004 to 15 percent in 2024, its GDP size expanded from $12.22 trillion to $29.18 trillion or only 2.4 times expansion. Yes, China’s GDP size of $38.15 trillion is much larger than the US. Also in total power generation in 2024, China’s 10,087 TWH was twice larger than the US’ 4,635 TWH.

 

Germany’s C/T ratio declined from 48 percent to 21 percent, its GDP size expanded from $2.89 trillion to $6.0 trillion or only 2.1 times expansion. UK’s C/T ratio shrank from 34 percent to 0.7 percent and its GDP size expanded only 2.2 times, Spain’s C/T ratio declined from 29 percent to one percent and its GDP size expanded only 1.1 times.

 

So it is wrong to argue that coal energy can lead to economic underdevelopment because of environmental damage and health problems of its people. No, more cheap and stable power from coal means more growth and prosperity for the people.

 

PMCJ vs DOE on Atimonan coal

 

This week some climate activists including the Philippine Movement for Climate Justice (PMCJ) filed a case against Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Sharon Garin at the Ombudsman alleging that Ms. Garin has violated the coal moratorium order issued in 2020 by former DOE secretary Alfonso Cusi.

 

These people did not read the DOE memorandum dated Dec. 22, 2020 explicitly clarifying that only “greenfield” coal projects are covered by the moratorium, it did not cover “brownfield” projects and the following: “(a) Committed power projects; (b) Existing power plant complexes which already have firm expansion plans… (c) Indicative power projects with substantial accomplishments…”

 

The Atimonan One Energy (AE1) is a 1,200-MW ultra supercritical coal plant using the high efficiency, low emission (HELE) technology and is used worldwide including new coal plants in South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia and China.

 

That facility owned by Meralco Power Gen Corp. (MGen) once completed can save at least five million households (based on average monthly consumption of 150 kWh) from occasional or frequent blackout and be forced to use candles or generator sets running on diesel – the real dirty energy, not coal.

 

Secretary Garin should be congratulated, not sued, for enabling this long-committed beautiful coal project to proceed. I believe that Ombudsman Boying Remulla has the brains and wisdom to junk the petition of junk climate NGOs.

 

AP in Vietnam coal energy

 

One good energy news last week was the Aboitiz Power Corp. (AP) announcement that it will acquire 25 percent equity stake in Van Phong Power Co. Ltd. (VPCL)  from Sumitomo Corp. VPCL owns an operational 1,320 MW HELE coal power plant in Khánh Hòa province, Vietnam.

 

I say that it is good news because out of the top 60 medium to large economies in the world, Vietnam is the fastest growing of them all: 7.1 percent growth in 2024 and 7.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2025. So a Philippine company investing in the fastest-growing large economy in the world with large and rising demand for electricity.

 

The VPCL plant is less than two years old and has a 25-years power purchase agreement with Vietnam Electricity (EVN). the national utility. It can produce electricity equivalent to around four percent of Vietnam’s annual gross power generation.

 

ERC lowered contestability threshold   in the retail market to 100 kW

 

Finally, good news to expand consumer choice and electricity competition, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has approved a landmark ruling to lower the eligibility threshold for participation in the Retail Competition and Open Access (RCOA) and the Retail Aggregation Program (RAP) from 500 kilowatts (kW) to 100 kW average monthly peak demand.

 

The new threshold will take effect on June 26, 2026, more medium- sized enterprises and institutions can directly choose their electricity suppliers or aggregate their demand under the RAP.  ERC chairperson and CEO Atty. Francis Saturnino Juan has correctly put it saying that “by expanding retail access to more end-users, we are promoting genuine consumer choice and driving competition that can lead to better prices, improved service quality, and innovation in the power sector.” Congrats ERC and chair Nino Juan.

BWorld 829, ASEAN summit for prosperity, Philippines’ fiscal condition

ASEAN summit for prosperity, Philippines’ fiscal condition

October 28, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/10/28/708201/asean-summit-for-prosperity-philippines-fiscal-condition/

 

Big events were happening in Kuala Lumpur at the ASEAN Summit, which opened on Oct. 26 and ends today, the 28th. Last Sunday saw the 47th ASEAN Summit and President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. attended. Then came the ASEAN-US Summit with US President Donald Trump, and the ASEAN-Japan Summit with Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.

 

The 28th ASEAN Plus Three (with China, Japan, and South Korea) Summit was held yesterday, then the 20th East Asia Summit, the ASEAN plus India, Australia, New Zealand, the US, and Russia. Brazil and South Africa attended as observers. Today will see the handing over ceremony of the ASEAN Chairmanship from Malaysia to the Philippines, to begin on Jan. 1, 2026.

 

In honor of the ASEAN Summit, I gathered some basic economic data about the major economies of ASEAN — six countries out of the 11 members — then their major trade partners in the region, America, and Europe.

 

In GDP size at purchasing power parity (PPP) values, the top five are China, the US, India, Russia, and Japan. When it comes to power generation in terawatt hours (TWh), the same countries are in the top five.

 

Looking at the GDP growth average for 2022-2024, the top three fastest growing countries were India, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The slowest were Germany, Japan, and France. When it comes to inflation rate, the highest are Russia, the UK, and Brazil; the lowest are China, Taiwan, Thailand, and Malaysia.

 

 

In merchandise exports, despite Trump’s tariff hikes which kicked off in April, all of East Asia have actually experienced expansion in exports; India’s exports were flat, and Australia’s are declining, as are the US’ and Europe’s (see Table 1).

 

We should focus on industrialization, investment, trade expansion, and economic prosperity, not war mongering. The ASEAN is a good venue for this long-term goal.

 

THE STATE OF OUR CASH

Last week, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) released the cash operations report and fiscal condition for September this year. Here I compare the totals for January-September of the last four years.

 

The budget deficit by end-2025 may exceed the programmed P1.6 trillion as it was already P1.1 trillion by September (see Table 2).

 

The allotment to local government units (LGUs) via the National Tax Allotment (NTA) keeps rising, from P871.4 billion in 2024, the programmed P1.03 trillion in 2025, and P1.19 trillion in 2026. The Department of Finance (DoF) has targeted that LGUs would fund services in health, education, agriculture and environment, roads and infrastructure, technology, and security and social protection (HEARTS).

 

DoF secretary and LANDBANK Chairman Ralph G. Recto also delivered cash assistance, particularly to the earthquake-damaged provinces of Cebu and Davao Oriental. In addition, he unveiled higher tax-free benefits for Filipino workers nationwide, including higher tax-exempt monetized unused vacation leave credits for private employees from 10 to 12 days. Good move there, Secretary Recto.

 

Yesterday I attended the 2025 Fiscal Policy Conference organized by the Department of Budget and Management (DBM), held at the UP College of Law. The plenary speakers in the morning included University of the Philippines (UP) National College of Public Administration and Governance (NCPAG) Professor Emeritus Alex Brillantes, UP School of Economics Professor Emeritus Winnie Monsod, University of Asia and Pacific Professor Emeritus Jess Estanislao, and Jose Syquia of the Asian Development Bank. The plenary discussion was moderated by DBM Undersecretary Margaux Salcedo. The Keynote Address before lunch was given by DBM Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman.

 

The afternoon panel speakers included DoF Undersecretary Renato Reside, Jr., Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Undersecretary Joseph “Dockoy” Capuno, academics from Ateneo, De La Salle, UP NCPAG, other government agencies like the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department.

 

From the abstract of the paper “Select Application of Data Science in Public Finance: The Case of the Philippines,” by Reside, Ortillan, and Bonico, they focused on two important DoF operations — forecasting of flows of public revenues (including taxes and customs duties), and explaining local tax effort ratios across the country.

 

From the abstract of the paper “Catching them at first light: Predictors of project restructuring in the Investment Coordination Committee” by Capuno, Cambel, and Gonzalvo, they wanted to identify via regression methods projects that are likely to be delayed and restructured causing higher costs.

 

Public fora like this are important, help engage the public (especially the economics and public finance researchers) to find ways to control the rising public debt and rising interest payment that add pressure for the avoidance of tax cuts, if not future tax hikes.

PhilStar 65, Coal power and the Philippine’s energy conglomerates

Coal power and the Philippine’s energy conglomerates

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

October 30, 2025 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2025/10/30/2483435/coal-power-and-philippines-energy-conglomerates

 

Coal in particular is a very useful energy source for industrialization, at least three proof: One, UK developed the world’s first coal plant in 1882 and coal powered UK, then Germany, US, other countries to fast industrialization. Two, total world coal generation keeps rising from 3,748 terawatt-hours (TWH) in 1985 to 7,361 TWH in 2005 and 10,613 TWH in 2024. And three, China’s great leap from poverty to industrialization was largely powered by coal, only 261 TWH in 1985 to 1,980 TWH in 2005 and 5,828 TWH in 2024 (55 percent of world total).

 

Energy is development. More energy especially from stable, reliable and dispatchable sources means more leeway on the kind of modernization path a country can take.

 

Coal in particular is a very useful energy source for industrialization, at least three proof: One, UK developed the world’s first coal plant in 1882 and coal powered UK, then Germany, US, other countries to fast industrialization. Two, total world coal generation keeps rising from 3,748 terawatt-hours (TWH) in 1985 to 7,361 TWH in 2005 and 10,613 TWH in 2024. And three, China’s great leap from poverty to industrialization was largely powered by coal, only 261 TWH in 1985 to 1,980 TWH in 2005 and 5,828 TWH in 2024 (55 percent of world total).

 

With this background, I can think of four Philippine conglomerates with high energy footprints.

 

First, Meralco and its power generation subsidiary, Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGen). They have a diverse portfolio from thermal (coal and gas) to renewables. I checked the MGen website, they have a total of 1,389 MW of coal capacity, thousand plus MW in gas plants, and several hundreds MW of solar.

 

Just last week, MGen received many awards and recognition at the 2025 Asian Power Awards held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The four awards are: CEO of the Year for MGen president and CEO Emmanuel Rubio; Power Plant Upgrade of the Year for its Baras Solar project in Rizal; Fast-Track Power Plant of the Year (Gold) and Power Plant Upgrade of the Year, for Singapore-based subsidiary, PacificLight Power Pte Ltd (PLP).

 

I think that “CEO of the Year” award for Mr. Rubio is very important, a recognition of his leadership in significantly expanding MGen’s energy portfolio and power generation business. These include MTerra Solar project, the world’s largest integrated solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage facility once completed; the country’s first integrated liquefied natural gas (LNG) complex in Batangas; other battery storage projects.

 

I saw PLP plant in Singapore last year along with several local media, I was impressed – huge 830 MW of LNG plants plus construction of 100 MW fast-start plant and occupying only 13 hectares, just 0.02 percent of Singapore’s total land area. So PLP’s two awards have helped enhanced Singapore’s grid resilience while expanding parent company MGen’s financial muscle.

 

Second, Aboitiz Power Corp. (AP). I checked their website, they have 4,269 MW of coal capacity (3,476 MW in Luzon, 493 MW in Visayas and 300 MW in Mindanao), plus 442 MW of oil peaking plants, and engagement in chromite gas in Batangas in partnership with MGen and San Miguel Corp. (SMC).

 

The largest coal plant in the Philippines is GN Power Dinginin (GNPD) in Mariveles, Bataan, owned by AP. It is impressive – 1,336 MW and occupying only 60 hectares, no black smoke that we often see in the web, a high efficiency and low emission (HELE) coal plant that serves 30 electric cooperatives and private distribution utilities plus two RES.

 

Some climate activists demonize it but consider this: In 2024 alone, China built 94,000 MW of coal capacity. This is equivalent to 70 times the size of GNPD, or China was building one GNPD-size coal plant every five days on average. First half of 2025, China has commissioned and approved 25,000 MW of coal plants, this is equivalent to one GNPD-size coal plant every 10 days.

 

Last week, AP through its subsidiary 1882 Energy Ventures has launched Voltai as the first B2B motorcycle battery swap business in the Philippines. Unlike regular EVs that need to go to charging stations, this system is unique because a battery can be removed then swapped with newly charged battery and the motorcycle can quickly go again. So businesses in logistics, food and drinks delivery, ride-hailing services will benefit. Voltai leases their EVs and batteries for a fixed fee, shielding consumer businesses from rising vehicle and maintenance costs. Good project.

 

Third, SMC through its subsidiary San Miguel Global Power (SMGP). I checked their website, they have 3,494 MW of coal plants, plus LNG plants in partnership with MGen and AP, plus big hydro power plants, nice.

 

Four, National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP). Not into power generation but power transmission nationwide and some 80 percent of the Philippines’ power generation is from stable, reliable, dispatchable coal and gas, both from indigenous Malampaya gas and imported LNG.

 

Metro Pacific Investment Corp., the mother company of Meralco and MGen is also into toll roads, telecom, hospitals, agribusiness, real estate. Aboitiz Equity Ventures, the mother company of AP is also into agribusiness, airports, banking, real estate and industrial zones. SMC is also in toll roads, food and beverage manufacturing, airports. Synergy Grid and Development Philippines Inc. (SGP) that partly owns NGCP, is headed by Henry Sy Jr. who is also into many big malls nationwide, banking, residential condos, other businesses.

 

So those conglomerates have other companies and businesses that require 24/7/365 electricity. It is important that they are into power generation and transmission that sustain those big companies nationwide towards Philippine modernization, and create millions of jobs to Filipinos,

 

Last week, I also attended the Pandesal Forum with Rep. Arthur Yap of Murang Kuryente party-list as lone speaker. I like a number of his advocacies including the use of nuclear power for off-grid islands and provinces to reduce power costs there, and remove or drastically reduce that universal charge for missionary electrification (UC-ME) for on-grid customers. But I do not like his proposal to abolish VAT on electricity. No, we better reduce VAT rate and remove VAT-exemption of many sectors to raise more revenues, instead of adding VAT-exempt products like electricity.