PN 7, Part 3: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Part 3: Nickel potentials and Palawan

PROVINCES AND PROSPERITY

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

June 04, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/part-3-nickel-potentials-and-palawan/

 

Compared to several other metals, nickel has higher global price, higher than copper, zinc, aluminum, lead and iron ore. Nickel prices this decade are triple than four decades ago. That alone plus rising global demand is a good market potential for expanding nickel production in the Philippines.

 

Extraction of nickel in the Philippines is mostly done via high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) but some players are looking at other technologies to improve efficiency and reduce costs.

 

Philippines nickel deposits are of the laterite type — nickel-bearing soils derived from tropical weathering of ultramafic rock near the surface — and are extracted by open-pit, direct-shipping methods.

 

Both Palawan and Caraga Region in Mindanao have shared ore type of Nickeliferous Laterite — iron-rich tropical soils formed by deep weathering of serpentinized ultramafic rock (peridotite). The laterite profile has two commercially important zones:

 

Limonite (oxide) zone: Upper layer, lower nickel content but important source of cobalt as a by-product. Easier to ship (lower moisture). Saprolite (silicate) zone: Lower layer, higher nickel content. More commercially valuable per ton, but higher moisture makes loading and shipping more complex.

 

The non-common characteristics of Palawan nickel vs Caraga Region nickel are here.

 

Higher nickel grades in Palawan give its ore a commercial premium. Ipilan’s maiden shipments in 2022 comprised exclusively high-grade ore above 1.5% Ni, and its 2025 production plan targets a mix of medium-grade (1.4%+) and low-grade (1.3%). Caraga’s larger-volume production typically falls below 1.2% Ni, positioned primarily for Chinese blast furnace ferronickel (NPI) production rather than battery-grade applications.

 

Among the hindrances to nickel mining in the Philippines are opposition by activists based on their emotionalism. A recent case is the Petition for a Writ of Kalikasan filed against a subsidiary of Hinatuan Mining Corporation (HMC) in Manicani island in, Guiuan, Eastern Samar.

 

Good decision by the Supreme Court last May 11 to junk the “Trial by sentiment” where legitimate, complying by law and regulated mining operations are harassed by legal challenges and noisy political allegations based on “general impressions,” “bare allegations,” and “pure speculation.”

 

In an assessment last September 23, 2025, the US government’s International Trade Administration said that “The Philippines is among the world’s most mineralized countries and remains the world’s largest exporter of nickel ore and the second-largest producer globally. With substantial reserves of copper, nickel, cobalt, and other critical minerals, the country plays a vital role in global supply chains for clean energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and semiconductors.”

 

They added that “The Philippines holds an estimated $170 billion in nickel deposits, among the largest in Southeast Asia, with processing opportunities in Zambales, Surigao, Dinagat, and Palawan. The country has approximately 4.8 million metric tons (MT) of nickel reserves, though further exploration may be needed to refine these estimates. Most nickel is exported as raw ore, highlighting opportunities for U.S. firms in expanding domestic refining and downstream processing.”

 

There are persistent moves to prohibit exports of nickel ore by the Philippines and move towards export of processed ores only in order to optimize revenues. While the intention is good, the economics of it is not yet mature. Mineral ore processing is very capital- and energy-intensive, two resources that we have scarcity. Plus there is need for high volume of nickel ores that must be processed.

 

The continuing yellow-red alerts in the Visayas grid in May-June 2026, the three-days yellow-red alert in Luzon grid in late May are proof of energy scarcity in the country. Like data centers, mineral processing energy intensiveness can further starve other areas and industry of the country of additional electricity supply.

 

So an important prerequisite for mineral processing is huge increase in power generation in the Philippines, especially in nickel-rich areas like Palawan and Caraga region. Palawan can start having big coal power plants, have power surplus to bring down the cost of electricity without relying on subsidies from all electricity consumers nationwide via the universal charge for missionary electrification (UCME).

 

Having huge power supply in Palawan would attract the investors, foreign and local, to do more nickel extraction and processing. Higher efficiency and revenues for the private players and people of Palawan can be expected then.

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See also:

https://palawan-news.com/part-1-nickel-potentials-and-palawan/, April 30, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/part-2-nickel-potentials-and-palawan/, May 10, 2026

BWorld 871, Rising debt, limited power infrastructure, and legislative populism

Rising debt, limited power infrastructure, and legislative populism

May 26, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/26/751936/rising-debt-limited-power-infrastructure-and-legislative-populism/

 

Writing political commentary in this column is something that I avoid because it is not my focus of regular research, but the recent drama and political coup at the Philippines Senate made me come up with this piece for my column. And I support the observation of many other columnists that what is happening at the Senate is disgusting.

 

Two sets of data here show that the current breed of legislators at the Senate (and also at the House of Representatives) are just elections-oriented and are interested in subsidies-expanding populism, and not taxpayers-sensitive and industrialization-oriented.

 

1. Our rising Debt/GDP ratio since 2020 lockdown. New subsidies and freebies are created or expanded without cutting or abolishing existing subsidies that do not work in reducing poverty. Politicians, both national and local, spout and promise new subsidies and freebies during the campaign period without regard for the overall fiscal condition that is worsening.

 

Our Debt/GDP ratio of 65% in 2005 (the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo administration) went down to 48% in 2010, and down further to 40% in 2015 (the Benigno Aquino III administration), sinking to 37% in 2019 (during the first half of Rodrigo Duterte’s administration). It then quickly jumped to 52% in 2020 during the horrible COVID lockdown (also during Duterte’s term), and further increased to 59% in 2025 under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.’s administration. In contrast, Vietnam showed fiscal discipline and even reduced its Debt/GDP ratio in 2025 (see Table 1).

 

2. Most legislators are too focused on reducing power prices via political optics when the bigger problem is limited power infrastructure, limited supply and transmission while power demand keeps rising.

 

In 2024, the Philippines’ total power generation was only 130 terawatt-hours (TWh) compared with Malaysia, which has a smaller population, which produced 214 TWh; Vietnam’s 304 TWh; and South Korea’s 625 TWh. Environmental activists and legislators want the early decommissioning of our existing coal plants and a prohibition on building new ones. But our coal generation in 2024 was only 79 TWh while that of greenie Germany was 106 TWh; Australia’s was 127 TWh; Japan’s was 300 TWh. The US’s coal generation that year was 712 TWh or nine times that of the Philippines, while China’s was 5,828 TWh or 73 times that of the Philippines.

 

Our power generation is restricted because cheap new baseload coal is restricted while unstable solar and wind power (with no battery and which have expensive auction prices) are being rushed and given priority dispatch.

 

On the transmission side, in 2025 the Philippines had only 23,110 kilometers of transmission lines (23,379 km according to official data from the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines or NGCP), mainly because of our archipelagic geography. It is costly to connect many islands (Luzon-Leyte, Leyte-Bohol-Cebu, Panay-Negros-Cebu, Mindanao-Visayas, etc.), and one has to deal with many bureaucracies when it comes to right of way acquisitions, a limit to capex recovery from regulators, etc. In contrast, Thailand has 40,300 km, Vietnam has 61,900 km, and Japan has 180,000 km (see Table 2).

 

Nonetheless, there was big improvement in our transmission system, from only 24,214 megavolt-ampere (MVA) in 2008 (pre-NGCP franchise) to 44,145 MVA in 2025 resulting in 182% in power delivery capacity and a 85% decrease in power outages.

 

Combine or add these: limited power generation + limited transmission facilities + high power demand = low power reserves (especially in Visayas grid), and prices go up.

 

And there are additional subsidies and charges in our monthly electricity bill, like universal charge for missionary electrification (UCME), ancillary services charge in transmission, FIT-All, and GEA-All or green charges, local taxes and franchise taxes, and the subsidy to lifeline households.

 

Many legislators blame the private generation companies, blame private distribution utilities, blame the transmission operator, and want more price control to all of them, blame the VAT and push for the abolition of VAT on electricity.

 

Responsible legislators focus on the factors that restrict cheap baseload generation, that restrict faster transmission lines across islands and provinces, that add more unnecessary charges and high taxes. The VAT in electricity should stay, but the VAT rate should be cut to 8-10%, and all exemptions should be removed except those on raw agriculture products.

 

For three weeks now, the Visayas grid has been experiencing daily yellow alerts (raised when the operating margin of the power grid is insufficient to meet transmission requirements), especially between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. There have been continued forced outages of the major coal plants TVI in Cebu and PEDC unit 3 in Iloilo. These two coal plants have worked hard over the last decade and saved the Cebu, Negros, and Panay islands and provinces from daily blackouts. Now they are experiencing some industrial fatigue but are being repaired.

 

The solution is the expansion of these big coal plants and adding small LNG plants to any of these three big islands, plus in Boracay, Bohol, Guimaras, Masbate, Marinduque, Romblon, and other off-grid areas. The solution is not decommissioning these coal plants and replacing them with intermittent solar and wind power.

 

There is ongoing or planned expansion of TVI in Cebu and PEDC in Iloilo, and these should proceed without delay. I checked with the NGCP: these expansions can be accommodated by the Visayas transmission system, which is good.

 

So combine these: elections-oriented legislators, subsidies-populist political programs with no regard for the overall fiscal condition, politics-driven electricity pricing instead of reserves expansion to bring down prices. That kind of political culture can produce the sort of political drama that is happening in the Senate.

 

The President, the Executive Secretary, and other Cabinet officials can take the lead in changing the political culture. Change it to a culture of fiscal discipline and responsibility, self-reliant citizens and not state-dependent ones, and industrialization-oriented politics and economic agenda.

PhilStar 94, Transition from energy poverty to energy abundance and the OIEA

Transition from energy poverty to energy abundance and the OIEA

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

May 28, 2026 

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/05/28/2530941/transition-energy-poverty-energy-abundance-and-oiea

 

Last Tuesday, May 26, I attended the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP) forum on the theme, “Beyond the Crisis: Defining a New Era of Philippine Energy” held at Frabelle Corporate Plaza, Makati. I am not a member of EJAP but the leaders gave me permission to attend, my gratitude to them.

 

After the welcome message by EJAP president Ted Cordero, the keynote address was given via video by Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Sharon Garin, followed by her prepared speech read by DOE Undersecretary Felix William “Wimpy” Fuentebella. Then another video message from Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) chairman and CEO Francis Saturnino “Nino” Juan.

 

Sec Sharon and Usec Wimpy highlighted the practical dictum that energy security is national security, diversified power sources and more reliance on indigenous energy reduces the risks from high import fuel dependence. Chair Nino mentioned one of my non-friendly topics, electricity price control via the secondary price cap at WESM. Because price control is price dictatorship and he correctly noted that the price cap has become the destination instead of “circuit breaker” during hours of thin power margins.

 

I am no fan of DOE’s so many gigawatts (GW) of green energy auction (GEA) for solar-wind with no battery, especially offshore wind that are very costly in both generation and transmission system. We need another round of auction, a baseload energy auction (BEA) that should run parallel to GEA at similar level of GW.

 

Then a panel discussion with six speakers: Usec Wimpy, ERC director Sharon Montaner, MGEN Renewables president and CEO Dennis Jordan, Prime CoreGen president and CEO Jose Victor Emmanuel “Jocot” de Dios, Divina Law Offices senior partner Jose “Jay” Layug Jr., and Aboitiz Power vice president for corporate affairs Ronald Francis “Suiee” Suarez. The moderator was The STAR business editor and columnist Iris Gonzales, my editor in this column.

 

All of them have the unanimous view that we need to expand power generation to address power shortages. Even Jay Layug who champions heavy RE use in our power system concedes the need for additional baseload. Jocot spoke about developing more indigenous gas and I agree with him, hydrocarbons are beautiful not only for liquid fuel and power generation but also for various petrochem, fertilizers production.

 

Dennis spoke naturally about MTerra Solar, the largest project of his company. This kind of solar project I can support because it has battery, an extensive storage system and removes the “duck curve” at noontime. But I wish that MGEN Thermal president Lino Bernardo was also there to talk about the larger beauty of thermal plants, spinning machines that can run 24/7 with inertia and high energy density.

 

Suiee mentioned that they have allotted high capex this year for RE but he also highlighted that their conventional plants, both thermal and renewable – coal, gas, geothermal, hydro – play a big role in helping ensure energy security of the country.

 

During the Q&A, I was the last to ask a question and I asked Usec Wimpy – Why not change the concept of energy transition from energy poverty to energy abundance? The kwh per capita generation, the Philippines has 1,100, Vietnam has nearly 3,000, Singapore has 9,000, South Korea has 12,000. We are in a state of energy poverty and energy transition from fossil fuels to variable RE is the least relevant for us.

 

Usec Wimpy agreed but he insisted on aligning DOE policies with the energy trilemma – energy security, affordability and sustainability.

 

Energy abundance. I checked the web if there is already an “energy abundance index”, there is none. There is the “Simon Abundance Index” (SAI) developed by “Human Progress” project of Cato Institute in the US but it is focused on the relationship between resource abundance and population, and energy is only one of many factors.

 

So I will introduce an informal concept that may be called the Oplas Index of Energy Abundance (OIEA, pronounced like “Oh yeah”). I computed the electricity generation per person of countries as: Total generation in gigawatt-hours (GWh) divided by population in million equals kWh per capita. Then set a threshold of 1,500 kWh per capita, 1,499 or below is energy poverty.

 

The corresponding threshold in GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) value is roughly $15,000 and in GDP at current value is around $4,500. But I will expand on this in future elaboration of the index.

 

Data sources, for total generation, Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2025; population and GDP size, IMF, World Economic Outlook 2026. I start with Asia-Pacific countries first and here are the numbers of power generation in 2024:

 

(a) Energy abundance, 5,001 and above kWh per capita: Hong Kong 5,203; Malaysia 6,381, China 7,163; Japan 8,204; New Zealand 8,510; Singapore 9,875; Australia 10,283; South Korea 12,085; Taiwan 12,332.

 

(b) Energy affluence, 1,500 to 5,000 kWh per capita: Thailand 2,784; Vietnam 2,997.

 

(c) Energy poverty, below 1,500 kWh per capita: India 1,400; Indonesia 1,332; Philippines 1,151; Cambodia 1,016; Sri Lanka 863; Bangladesh 624; Pakistan 567; Myanmar 396.

 

Our 1,150 kWh per capita is what Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan attained in the 70s; Australia and Japan attained in the 60s or 50s; Malaysia in 1988, Thailand in 1997, China in 2001 and Vietnam in 2011. I will show the tables and computations in my column in BusinessWorld next week.

 

So there. We should go for energy abundance and not wallow in energy poverty. Go for energy agnosticism and not favoritism (priority and mandatory dispatch for RE). Go for targeting say 1,600 kWh per capita by 2030, 2,500 by 2040 and 4,000+ by 2050. Instead of targeting 50 percent RE by 2050.

BWorld 870, On energy inflation, market suspension, power disruption, and Leviste’s solar inaction

On energy inflation, market suspension, power disruption, and Leviste’s solar inaction

May 19, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/19/750452/on-energy-inflation-market-suspension-power-disruption-and-levistes-solar-inaction/

 

We have four topics to tackle here so we go straight to the numbers and facts, starting with energy inflation.

 

While our overall inflation last month was 7.2%, inflation in the transport sector was 21.4% and that of people’s operation of their cars, motorcycles, etc. was 66%.

 

I checked the electricity rates on the Meralco website and saw that the generation charge in the May billing was 17.8% higher than May last year’s. The transmission charge has increased mainly because of the addition of ancillary services (battery and backup oil-gas peaking plants) as more intermittent renewable energy (RE) without battery is added to the grid. The distribution charge is flat while subsidies to off-grid areas and islands via the universal charge for missionary electrification (UC-ME) has increased (see Table 1).

 

Last week, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) released the Market Operations Highlights for April and reflected on the May billing. It covered February to April. The share of coal in the energy mix at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) has decreased, from 61% in February-April 2024 to 57% in February-April 2026, while the share of solar energy has almost doubled, from 3.6% to 6.3% over the same period.

 

Spot prices have increased from P4.52 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in April 2025 to P5.63/kWh in April 2026, mainly because the power margin decreased from 4,585 megawatts (MW) to 4,427 MW over the same period (see Table 2).

 

The bottom-line is, in both WESM prices and the overall generation rate, the electricity price increase is lower than transport inflation but higher than overall inflation.

 

Most people accepted and adjusted to the very high fuel prices in March and April without subsidies. There is little justification for electricity subsidies — we have to adjust for these are externally caused price shocks.

 

MARKET SUSPENSION, LINE RENTAL DISTORTION

The WESM market was suspended from March 26 to April 30. There seems to be a distortion in the payment of line rental (the difference in prices of the generator and customer node corresponding to their bilateral contract declaration or bcq).

 

The Modified Admin Price (MAP) of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) was meant to maximize coal output and minimize LNG and oil because the rise in the price of coal was much lower than the rise in oil and gas prices. The ERC issued a fixed MAP of P6/kWh for coal to be used for spot energy only, but the implementation of MAP P6 became a nodal price.

 

Then there was another price, the customer MAP which averages the coal price and the original admin price. Thus, there were three different prices per interval which created the difference in nodal prices, and resulted in line rentals which should not have happened.

 

There were losers and winners. Coal plants, with their bcq counterparties during the morning to afternoon, have negative line rentals while other technologies have high positive line rentals. Technologies or customers who benefit from negative line rental will not give back, while gencos or customers affected by high line rental payments will not pay.

 

To avoid distortion, the fixed coal price under MAP should have been used only for spot sales of the coal plant and not applied as their nodal price.

 

POWER DISRUPTION, YELLOW-RED ALERTS

For three days last week (May 13 to 15) we saw yellow and red alerts raised in the Visayas and Luzon grids.

 

There was unscheduled maintenance in some big coal plants in Cebu, and the National Grid Corp. of the Philippine’s (NGCP) 500-kilovolt (kV) Tayabas–Ilijan and Ilijan–Dasmariñas transmission lines tripped, which in turn disconnected 2,462 MW of natural gas capacity by LNGPH, particularly the Ilijan (South Premiere Power Corp. or SPPC) Blocks A and B and Excellent Energy Resources, Inc. (EERI) Units 1, 2, and 3, which were disconnected from the Luzon grid and triggered widespread power interruptions across Luzon.

 

It also prevented the transfer of power from the Luzon to Visayas grid.

 

In addition, Masinloc Unit 3 (325 MW) had a forced outage.

 

The Department of Energy (DoE) mobilized the Grid Reliability Task Force (GRTF) composed of the DoE, ERC, IEMOP, the National Transmission Corp. (TransCo) and the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM).

 

ERC Chairman and CEO Francis Saturnino C. Juan visited the System Operations Command Center and wrote to NGCP President and CEO Anthony L. Almeda seeking a detailed account covering date, time, duration of each yellow and red alert, areas affected, generating units, and transmission lines, among others.

 

The rotating hours-long blackouts via manual load dropping (MLD) in many areas of Visayas and Luzon was bad. It further showed that the most expensive electricity is no electricity — not P15/kWh but available electricity, but rather P1/kWh electricity when there are no kilowatts available.

 

DOE’S COMPLAINT VS LEVISTE

On May 6, the DoE filed a criminal complaint against Congressman Leandro Legarda-Leviste and his solar firm, Solar Para sa Bayan Corp. (SPSB/SPBC), for failing to operate its national franchise, citing a seven-year period of total project inactivity.

 

DoE Secretary Sharon S. Garin personally lodged the complaint before the National Prosecution Service of the Department of Justice, saying that “To this date, no application whatsoever has been lodged by SPSB/SPBC, nor has any report been filed regarding its compliance with the terms and conditions of the franchise. Interestingly, when the legislative franchise was granted in 2019, SPSB/SPBC had no single project or operation to speak of.”

 

The DoE said it has no record that the company applied for the permits and approvals required by law, renewable energy projects were instead established and operated for profit through a separate group of companies under the umbrella of Solar Philippines Power Project Holdings, Inc. (SPPPHI), wholly owned by Mr. Leviste. See “Energy dep’t files complaint vs Leviste, firm over idle solar projects” (BusinessWorld, May 7).

 

The congressman should answer the DoE complaint and pay the P24-billion penalty for its failure to deliver its commitments to develop some 11,400 MW of solar farms under 42 Service Contracts (SCs) with the DoE from 2017-2022 and thus contribute to the finance department’s revenue collections. This instead of indulging in politicking irrelevant to energy development and avoiding paying the penalties.

PN 6, Part 2: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Part 2: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

May 10, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/part-2-nickel-potentials-and-palawan/

 

Nickel prices have increased recently, from $15,390/ton in end-May 2025 to $16,750 in end-December 2025 and $19,635/ton last May 5. The all-time high price of nickel was $48,226 on March 07, 2022 mainly because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the latter is a major producer of high-grade nickel.

 

As discussed in Part 1 of this column, the Philippines is the second largest producer of nickel ore in the world after Indonesia, with an output of 330,000 tons in 2024. The country’s estimated nickel reserves is 4.8 million tons, so the reserves/production (R/P) ratio is only 15 years for the Philippines, 25 years for Indonesia, and 38 years for the worldwide average.

 

Prices of nickel sulfate in 2024 were back to 2019 prices at more than $17,000/ton, while cobalt prices have declined in 2024. Cobalt, lithium, and nickel are among the important materials in the production of electric vehicles; cobalt and nickel are for stainless steel and other industrial products.

 

While Caraga region in Mindanao has clear policy and geological

advantages in nickel production, Palawan has its own advantages too but the

policy environment is not friendly to new nickel mining projects.

 

I summarize the policy gap between the two here. This is an extension of

Table 2 in Part 1 of this column.

Both Palawan and Caraga face weather-related production limitations. Palawan’s southwest-facing coast makes it susceptible to the southwest monsoon (June–October), limiting the mining season to approximately November–July. Caraga facing the Pacific Ocean is exposed to typhoons and northeast monsoon conditions from October–March. In 2025, prolonged rains constrained operating days at both FNI’s Palawan and Surigao sites, reducing 9-month sales volume by 14.2% year-on-year.

 

From April 2020 to December 2024, 92% of Caraga’s nickel ore went to China. Palawan’s Ipilan mine are shipped exclusively to Guangdong Century Tsingshan Nickel Industry (GCTN) in China. There is high dependency in exports to China of Philippines nickel ore.

 

The 50-years new mining moratorium is not good for Palawan’s push for higher economic growth. It is good that the Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) has pointed out that the provincial moratorium is in conflict with the national Mining Act of 1995.

 

The Supreme Court has earlier struck down a 25-year mining moratorium imposed by Occidental Mindoro on the same grounds, citing the limited police powers of local government units over national resources. That precedent can apply to Palawan when the Provincial Ordinance is challenged before the courts. 

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See also:

PN 3, Coal plants in Luzon and Palawan, May 04, 2026

PN 4, Coal plants in Visayas-Mindanao and Palawan, May 16, 2026

PN 5, Part 1: Nickel potentials and Palawan, May 17, 2026

BWorld 869, The China-US summit and recent ASEAN summit

The China-US summit and recent ASEAN summit

May 14, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/14/749422/the-china-us-summit-and-recent-asean-summit/

 

Today is the start of the two-days visit of US President Donald Trump, Jr. to China. Trade, investment, and market access, the Iran war, and energy are expected to dominate the talks between Mr. Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Taiwan may also crop up.

 

Today I have assembled a variety of economic and energy data from different sources for the three largest economies in Asia, North America, and Europe. In GDP size at current values, the US is No. 1 in the world, but at purchasing power parity (PPP) values, China is No. 1. And this is consistent with rankings in merchandise exports, total energy supply (TES), and total power generation (TPG).

 

In 2025, the total combined GDP size of the US, Canada, and Mexico was $36.98 trillion, smaller than China’s $41.24 trillion. When it comes to merchandise exports, the total combined exports of the US, Canada, and Mexico was $3.40 trillion, smaller than China’s $3.77 trillion.

 

In TES, the combined size of the three North America countries was 111.75 exajoules (EJ), smaller than China’s 158.88 EJ. And in TPG, the combined size of the US, Canada, and Mexico was 5,627 terawatt-hours (TWh), smaller than China’s 10,087 TWh (see Table 1).

 

These numbers show that China already eclipsed the US economy several years ago. But we keep hearing and reading in many news outlets and even academic papers that the US economy is larger than China’s so the US can throw its weight around in many negotiations on trade, investments, infrastructure, and energy.

 

It seems that China has patiently endured the “US is more economically dominant” narrative while consistently increasing its market share in global exports and energy supply. BYD and Geely cars, Howo trucks, Yutong buses, Huawei mobile phones, and many other brands continue to expand their markets in many countries.

 

The more important thing that must be addressed in the Trump-Xi summit is the avoidance of more political and military conflict in the region, from the Middle East to the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, and the Taiwan independence issue.

 

THE ASEAN

Last Friday, May 8, the ASEAN summit was successfully held in Cebu as the leaders of the member-countries reiterated that they would be “reinforcing peace and security through dialogue and cooperation, promoting maritime cooperation as an important avenue for enhancing regional connectivity, mutual trust and dialogue, deepening economic integration… peaceful settlement of disputes, including full respect for legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to the threat or use of force in accordance with international law…”

 

Using the same indicators as Table 1, I summarized the numbers for the ASEAN-6 plus South Korea, Taiwan ,and Australia. Notable was the fast expansion in GDP size of other Asian economies in just two decades, from 2005 to 2025.

 

In merchandise trade, Singapore has more exports than the UK, Russia, and Canada. In power generation, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam are larger than the UK (see Table 2).

 

The real driver of the global economy now is Asia, not North America or Europe. The pace of industrialization, manufacturing expansion, and modernization, and electricity production to power those big and expanding industrial needs, are simply fast, led by China, India, South Korea, and Japan.

 

In the ASEAN, the leading economies are Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam. The Philippines has generally been left behind by some of its ASEAN neighbors in many aspects of industrialization, but this is not necessarily bad for us. Our merchandise trade deficit can be compensated for by non-merchandise trade surplus. It is important that free trade should prevail, and that discriminatory non-tariff barriers be kept to the minimum.

 

More importantly, we need to look inwards more and address various governance problems and issues that adversely affect our businesses, industries, and exporters.

PhilStar 93, Cereals and fertilizers inflation

Cereals and fertilizers inflation

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

May 14, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/05/14/2527726/cereals-and-fertilizers-inflation

The Philippines’ overall inflation increased from 1.4 percent in April 2025 to 7.2 percent in April 2026 and it is bad. But an even worse inflation is registered in other consumer goods like cereals and fertilizers.

 

I checked the Excel table of the Philippines Statistics Authority on wholesale prices of cereals, and the following caught my attention.

 

Well-milled rice per kilo, from P42.94 in April 2025 to P52.05 in April 2026, a 21.2 percent increase, that’s large. Over the same period the largest increases were registered in Central Visayas or Region 7, from P47.68 to P60.55; Davao Region or Region 11, from P 43.45 to P56.07; SOCKSARGEN or Region 12, from P37.20 to P52.91/kilo or 42.2 percent increase; Caraga or Region 13, from P43.65 to P57.25; and BARMM, from P41.14 to P54.00, or 31 percent increase in both Caraga Region and BARMM.

 

White corn grits, April 2025 to April 2026, from P31.43 to P51.95 or 65.3 percent increase. Largest increases were recorded in these regions: Central Visayas, from P36.00 to P63.48 or 76 percent increase; Zamboanga Peninsula or Region 9, from P24.80 to P49.20 or 98.4 percent increase; Caraga or Region 13, from P29.50 to P56.00 or 90 percent.

 

 

Those with modest increases are special rice, from P50.04 to P57.33 or 14.6 percent increase. Yellow corn grits, from P29.66 to P31.85 or 7.4 percent increase.

 

There is no explanation or discussion given in the PSA Excel tables for the high price increases of those commodities. The most likely and understandable reason is higher cost of harvest and thresher, transportation because these are influenced by higher prices of diesel.

 

I have repeatedly argued that government should have suspended the oil excise tax especially for diesel because it is used by tractors, harvesters, irrigation pumps, trucks, fishing boats and many other machines and vehicles.

 

Sure there will be decline in overall revenues. Then it can be compensated by a cut in spending in some sectors. A tax cut can be considered as equivalent to government subsidy across the board with little or zero additional cost like fielding personnel to various areas to distribute certain cash or in-kind subsidy to public transportation, and the occasional wastes and corruption in implementing such subsidy.

 

In the coming planting season starting this June, a new price hike to watch is the cost of fertilizers. Global price of sulfur in particular has been rising from a pre-war price in Feb. 27 of China’s yuan (CNY) 3,877/ton to CNY 6,800 last April 08, declined a bit then resumed increase to CNY 7,803 last May 12.

 

Sulfur is used mainly to produce sulfuric acid, essential for manufacturing phosphate fertilizers, chemicals, and refined petroleum. Other industrial applications include  vulcanizing rubber, creating detergents, and production of fungicides and pesticides.

 

Another major fertilizers ingredient is ammonia or NH3. Its main application is nitrogen fertilizer to produce urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium phosphates to provide nitrogen to crops. Minor applications include the production of plastics, explosives, fabrics, and pesticides.

 

The price of ammonia has increased from Feb. 27 level of $518/ton to $805/ton on April 24 or after eight weeks of Middle East war, latest price is $799/ton last May 11.

 

Sulfur, ammonia, phosphates, etc are derived from oil-gas refining. More oil-gas production and refining means more fertilizers production, higher crop yield and higher food production in the world.

 

That is why it is wrong to keep demonizing hydrocarbons and fossil fuels. Oil-gas produce not only gasoline, diesel and LPG, they also produce various petrochemical products from paint and varnish to plastic and nylon, synthetic rubber tires to asphalt, fertilizers and medicines and many other industrial goods.

 

We should expand drilling and exploration for more indigenous oil and gas, onshore and offshore, national or regional cooperation with neighbors like Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and China.

 

We should set aside climate alarmism and war mongering and instead focus on expanding our domestic energy supply, domestic fertilizers and petrochemicals production. Save our jobs and businesses, save the hungry, and not save the planet as the planet is fine adapting to natural warming-cooling cycle for the past 4.6 billion years.

BWorld 868, Mapping oil-gas dependence of countries, and Meralco’s Q1 income

Mapping oil-gas dependence of countries, and Meralco’s Q1 income

May 12, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/12/748825/mapping-oil-gas-dependence-of-countries-and-meralcos-q1-income/

 

Continued high oil and gas prices affect the cost of mobility and the various industrial and petrochemical products, down to fertilizers resulting in a higher cost of farming. Electricity generation can be somewhat insulated from very high prices for countries that rely more on coal, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, and other renewables.

 

I have here the breakdown of total energy supply by type of fuel. I grouped the countries by continent and sub-continents.

 

The heavy users of oil are Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore. Heavy users of both oil and natural gas are the US, Canada, Mexico, the UAE, the UK, Italy, and Malaysia. And heavy users of natural gas are Russia and Iran.

 

The heavy users of coal are China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam; the high users of coal and gas are Taiwan and the Philippines. Only France is heavily dependent on nuclear power.

 

Countries that are high energy users are also the countries with large GDP sizes. China leads as its GDP of $41.2 trillion and its total energy supply of 159 exajoules (EJ, a unit of energy equal to one quintillion joules) are a lot larger than the US’ GDP of $30.8 trillion and energy supply of 92 EJ.

 

When it comes to electricity generation, the archipelagic Philippines is larger than the city state of Singapore, with 130 vs. 60 terawatt-hours (TWh), but when it comes to total energy supply, Singapore’s is larger than the Philippines’, with 3.79 vs. 2.54 EJ. The main reason is that Singapore is used as a transportation hub by many airlines, shipping lines, cruise lines, and cargo ships.

 

Notable in Table 1 is that America and Europe have seen a small expansion in GDP size over the past two decades, 2005 to 2025. The global average expansion over the same time period is 3.1 times. The expansion of GDP size of the US, Canada, Germany, France, and the UK range from 2.1 to 2.4 times.

 

 

In contrast, China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines saw GDP expansion of 4.2 to 6.9 times while Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, and South Korea’s GDPs expanded 2.8 to 3.8 times. These Asian economies have powered their industrialization and modernization with coal, gas, and oil, using more fossil fuels than renewable energy sources. Asia, and the Philippines in particular, should not veer away from this, they should distance themselves from the aggressive climate-climate agenda that promotes the use of renewable energy.

 

MERALCO

Last week, Meralco released their first quarter (Q1) 2026 Financial and Operational Highlights. Meralco proper as a distribution utility (DU) experienced a decline in energy sales at -1.8%, but the generation unit, the Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN), experienced a 17.6% expansion, while its retail electricity supply (RES) units like Vantage and MPower saw a 9% expansion.

 

In Consolidated Core Net Income (CCNI), MGEN experienced a 51% expansion while the DU and RES suffered a contraction of 21% and 6.4% respectively. It is the same in Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA), the DU and RES suffered contractions but MGEN experienced a 27% expansion (see Table 2).

 

MGEN remains the rock star of the Meralco group. The “lead singer” of this rock star unit, MGEN President and CEO Manny Rubio, identified in his presentation the dynamic parts of the company, namely MGEN Thermal (the coal plant units GBP and San Buenaventura), MGEN Gas (an investment in LNGPH through Chromite Gas, and Singapore-based PacificLight Power), and MTerra Solar for the timely delivery of an initial 250 megawatts (MW) of solar with battery. He also mentioned the $2.8-million US government grant to MGEN for nuclear study.

 

Meanwhile, here are some developments from other agencies.

 

The Department of Energy (DoE) reiterated its moratorium on new coal projects in the country. This is bad news. The good news is that there are exemptions to the moratorium — projects that were categorized in 2020 as committed for expansion, indicative projects with substantial accomplishments, those serving off-grid or island areas, facilities dedicated to the mining and processing of critical minerals, own-use projects within economic zones, and on-grid projects deemed necessary to avert an imminent power supply crisis.

 

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) made three good rulings this month — resuming the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market or WESM operations, the issuance of clarificatory guidelines on Modified Administered Price to stabilize power costs during market suspension, and the suspension of the Green Energy Auction Allowance, or GEA-All, collection for the May and June 2026 billing period.

 

The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines reiterated they are ready with 10,260 MW of available transmission capacity, but there are not enough power plants in the right places, and many new power projects are far away from existing transmission facilities.

The Bureau of Customs issued an order extending solar importer accreditation validity from one year to three years. Good — that means less bureaucracy and additional costs.