Iran war 3, Rising prices of fertilizers

Aside from high oil-gas prices, the Middle East war also leads to high prices of fertilizers like Urea and Di-ammonium nitrate, and raw materials for fertilizers like sulfur.

Urea from $465/ton last Feb. 27 (pre-war) to $672/ton today.

Sulfur from CN Yuan 3,877/ton last Feb. 27 to CN Yuan 5,183/ton today.

(source: Trading Economics)

High cost of transportation, farming and electricity, high cost of fertilizers and other farming inputs, high food inflation. Among the other things we have to endure as the war drags on.

BWorld 844, 10 developments in WESM and renewables in 2025

10 developments in WESM and renewables in 2025

January 13, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/01/13/723713/10-developments-in-wesm-and-renewables-in-2025/

 

Here is my quick list of developments during 2025 in two areas of the Philippines electricity sector — the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) and renewables.

 

1. Peak power demand declined in 2025 to 19,000 megawatts (MW) after a considerable increase in 2024. This can be due to the strong El Niño in 2024 that spiked consumers’ electricity demand, followed by La Niña in 2025 that lowered electricity demand.

 

2. Power generation was flat in 2025 (compared with 2024’s level) at 118 terawatt-hours (TWh). The share of coal and gas in power generation declined from 77% in 2023, to 74% in 2025. Hydro generation was high during La Niña in 2025.

 

3. There was a continued decline in Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) prices. The load-weighted average price (LWAP) went down from P6.07/ kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2023 to P3.98/kWh in 2025. This data comes from the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP).

 

4. The feed-in tariff allowance (FIT-All) was higher in 2025 — from zero in 2023 to P0.13/kWh in 2025. It was P0.20/kWh in late 2025. FIT — or the guaranteed price for 20 years for intermittent renewables, namely solar and wind power — is high, up to P9/kWh. The higher the difference between the WESM price and the guaranteed price of FIT, the higher the FIT-All that will be collected from consumers (see Table 1).

 

5. Starting this month, a new subsidy for renewables, called the Green Energy Auction Allowance (GEA-All), will be collected on top of FIT-All. It will start at P0.037/kWh, then will keep rising in the coming years.

 

This is the result of the Department of Energy’s GEA program. The effective Green Energy Tariff (GET, in Pesos/kWh) are as follows: GEA1 (mostly solar) is P4, GEA2 is P5, GEA4 (mostly onshore wind) is P5.34, and GEA5 (offshore wind) is P12.

 

The administrator of FIT-All, the National Transmission Corp. (Transco), will also administer the GEA-All. Late last year they released their estimates of the price impact of the GEA program under varying Congestion Revenue Rights (CRR) at P1/kWh to P5/kWh.

 

I also made my own computations of GEA-All, mainly from expensive wind power. I made two computations for GEA5, 5a with 1,500 MW of offshore wind (OSW) and 5b with 3,300 MW of OSW. The results of my computations can be found in Table 2.

 

6. Transco estimates show that GEA-All will exceed P1/kWh starting 2030 at CRR P1/kWh. The projected delivery of expensive OSW is by 2030.

 

7. GEA-All would decline slightly by 2033 as the share of OSW to total power generation is expected to decline as more gas and, hopefully, coal — a lot cheaper than wind whether onshore or offshore — will come in.

 

8. My estimates, found in Table 2, show that GEA5b will quickly contribute P0.53/kWh in 2030 to the GEA-All. This is consistent with the big jump in GEA-All in 2030 from the Transco estimates.

 

9. GEA5b would flatline at P0.30/kWh from 2033 onwards (see Table 2).

 

 

10. We need a baseload energy auction (BEA) and not just GEA. A BEA from coal, gas, and nuclear would be a lot cheaper than the “green” energy that actually kills millions of trees (solar hates shade from trees, clouds, and rain).

 

SPNEC IS NOT SPBC

Meanwhile, I saw a press release from the Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN) the other day clarifying that SP New Energy Corp. (SPNEC) is a separate and distinct corporate entity from Solar Para Sa Bayan Corp. (SPBC). It said that MGEN did not acquire any share in SPBC — which was awarded a congressional franchise through RA 11357 to install and operate microgrids in remote areas in Mindoro — and that MGEN is not privy to any transactions of SPBC nor to any circumstances that may relate to its compliance with its franchise.

 

I have written about SPBC before. I called it “Solar Para sa Politika Corp.” because, unlike all other solar companies, it was the only one that secured its own franchise.

 

It is good that MGEN invested only in SPNEC which did not violate any law or regulation, and is not dependent on any political and congressional franchise. Christer Gaudiano, MGEN Head for Sustainability, Corporate Communications & External Affairs, said “We hope this clarifies the issue and lays to rest the disinformation coming out especially in social media.”

PhilStar 76, Ten points in Phl-UAE partnership

Ten points in Phl-UAE partnership

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

January 15, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/01/15/2500973/ten-points-phl-uae-partnership

 

The participation of President Marcos in the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2026 Summit in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a very good move. In particular, the signing of the Philippines-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) is significant for the Philippines.

 

See also these recent reports in The Philippine Star: “Marcos to visit UAE on Jan. 12 to sign historic trade deal” (Jan. 8), “President Marcos leaves for UAE today” (Jan. 12), “Recto, DAR, DSWD secretaries named government caretakers” (Jan. 13), “Philippines, UAE sign trade agreement” (Jan. 14).

 

Here is my list of 10 beautiful points in the Philippines-UAE partnership.

 

One, UAE is among the richest countries in the world. Despite having a small population of only 11 million, its GDP size at current value in 2024 was 29th largest in the world with $537 billion, larger than the Philippines’ $461 billion. In GDP size at purchasing power parity (PPP) value, UAE has $848 billion, smaller than the Philippines’ $1.366 trillion. Per capita GDP at PPP, UAE has $77,100 in 2024, the 12th richest in the world (source: IMF, World Economic Outlook 2025).

 

Two, in foreign direct investments (FDI) in the Philippines in January-October 2025, UAE is the ninth largest source with $7.6 million, up from an outflow of $6.3 million in 2023 and $5.9 million in 2024 (source: BSP).

 

Three, in international trade UAE is our 19th argest export market in January-November 2025 with $422 million, up from $359 million same months of 2024. In imports, UAE is our 17th largest source in January-November 2025 with $1.33 billion, up from $1.30 billion same months of 2024 (source: PSA).

 

Four, UAE has six of the richest sovereign wealth funds (SWF) in the world. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is third with $1.129 trillion in assets, Investment Corporation of Dubai is 13th richest with $400 billion, Mubadala Investment Co. is 15th with $330 billion, Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Co. is 16th with $251 billion, Emirates Investment Authority is 22nd with $102 billion and Dubai Investment Fund is 25th with $80 billion in assets (source: SWFI).

 

Our Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF) is 90th with $2.2 billion in assets. MIF should be able to attract any of those six SWFs of UAE for co-investment in many infrastructure and energy projects in the Philippines.

 

Five, in oil reserves UAE is the eighth largest in the world with 97.8 billion barrels or 5.6 percent of total global oil reserves of 1.732 trillion barrels. In oil production UAE was the eighth largest in the world with four million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024 or 4.1 percent of total world production of 96.9 mbpd (source: Energy Institute, Stat Review of World Energy, EI-SRWE 2025)

 

Six, in natural gas reserves UAE is the ninth largest in the world with 5.9 trillion cubic meters (tcm) or 3.1 percent of total global gas reserves of 188 tcm. In natural gas production, UAE was the 14th largest in the world with 61.4 billion cubic meters (bcm) or 1.5 percent of total global gas production of 4.124 tcm (source: EI-SRWE)

 

Seven, in nuclear power generation UAE is 12th largest in the world in 2024 with 40.6 terawatt-hours (TWh), the only Middle East country with huge nuclear power capacity (source: EI-SRWE). In 2025, UAE has 43.8 TWh from nuclear. The Philippines will go into nuclear power in the next decade and UAE should be among the models for using new large nuclear reactor plants.

 

Eight, UAE is home to some 900,000 overseas Filipino workers. Dubai alone has about 450,000 Filipinos. I have been to Dubai International Airport four times, in my trip for conference in France in 2023 and Spain in 2025, I was impressed by the huge number of Filipinos in many shops and restaurants there.

 

Nine, the Philippines-UAE CEPA will further reduce tariffs, enhance market access for goods and services, increase investment flows and create new opportunities for Filipino professionals and service providers in the UAE. The CEPA also covers sectors like digital trade, MSMEs, intellectual property, competition and consumer protection, nuclear safety. President Marcos and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan witnessed the signing of the agreement on Jan. 13 (source: PCO).

 

CEPA is seen to benefit Philippine exports like bananas, pineapples, canned tuna, electronics, among others. The Presidential Communications Office (PCO) said the free trade agreement could boost Philippine exports to the UAE by nine percent and enhance overall trade linkages with the Gulf region.

 

Ten, the Philippines’ new law, the Philippine National Nuclear Energy Safety Act, which establishes the country’s first comprehensive framework for the safe, secure and peaceful use of nuclear technology will help attract investments from UAE in energy, agribusiness, healthcare, manufacturing that utilize nuclear technology.

 

The CEPA will complement the Philippines’ other free trade agreements in many other countries in Asia. ASEAN is already a free trade zone among the 10 member-countries and the Philippines will chair the ASEAN Summit 2026. Executive Secretary Ralph Recto will be very busy not only as caretaker whenever the President goes abroad but also in coordinating hundreds of meetings related to the ASEAN summit.

 

Finally, the Philippines should be inspired by UAE’s wealth via fossil fuel development. Oil and gas are beautiful and useful commodities that give humanity not only gasoline, diesel and LPG but also many petrochemical products, from nylon, plastic, paint, varnish, polymers, fertilizers down to asphalt. Thus we should continue our country’s oil-gas exploration and development. 

BWorld 843, 10 major players in the Philippine electricity sector

10 major players in the Philippine electricity sector

January 8, 2026 | 12:03 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/01/08/722843/10-major-players-in-the-philippine-electricity-sector/

 

I saw BusinessWorld Top 1000 Corporations in the Philippines 2025 edition yesterday, and I quickly checked some numbers. Today I focus on players in the power and electricity sector (I did not include petroleum players). Here are the changes that I noticed from previous editions.

 

1. Manila Electric Co. or Meralco remains the top electricity company in the country. In the Top 1000, it interchanges with Petron Corp. for the No. 1 and No. 2 slot.

 

2. The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) has kept its regular rank in the No. 23-27 range. It is the transmission and system operator of the country’s power grid.

 

3. San Miguel Corp. (which has Sual Power, South Premiere, SMGP, Limay, San Roque, etc.) is the largest power generation company. Plus, there are its retail electricity arms.

 

4. Aboitiz Power (AP, Therma Luzon, Therma Visayas, Therma South…) is the second largest power generation company. Plus, there are its distribution companies VECO, Davao Light, Advent, etc.

 

5. FirstGen (First Gas, EDC, FGP…) was the third largest. At least, this was the case until 2023. It may not be so by 2025 because its gas power companies have been bought by Prime Energy of EKR.

 

6. Meralco Power Gen (MGEN, San Buenaventura, PEDC, CEDC…) is the fourth largest. Plus, it has a huge gas plant in Singapore, the Pacific Light Plant.

 

7. ACEN/Ayala is the fifth largest power generator.

 

8. The Malampaya consortium, now led by Prime Energy and UC38 LLC, owned by Enrique Razon and Dennis Uy respectively, are also huge players though they are on the upstream side.

 

9. Companies with coal and gas plants — SMC, AP, MGEN — have the advantage when it comes to gigawatt-hour sales and billion-peso revenues. ACEN and FirstGen are focused on intermittent solar-wind power plus geothermal.

 

10. Government-owned Napocor remains a loser and subsidy-dependent. PSALM – the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. — should dispose of more big hydro plants, especially in Mindanao, and stop getting subsidies. It should instead contribute dividends to the national treasury.

 

Private distribution utilities like Meralco, VECO, Davao Light, etc. are a lot better run than electric cooperatives. I still believe that all electric cooperatives should become corporations someday, or merge with private distri-bution utilities, or be bought entirely by distribution utilities.

PhilStar 75, 10 developments in inflation, labor and infrastructure in 2025

10 developments in inflation, labor and infrastructure in 2025

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

January 8, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/01/08/2499426/10-developments-inflation-labor-and-infrastructure-2025

 

Early January 2026 has produced some positive economic news for the Philippines and many Asian countries. Here is my list.

 

One, the Philippines’ inflation for December was 1.8 percent, so the full-year 2025 inflation is 1.7 percent, much lower than 5.8 percent in 2022, six percent in 2023 and 3.2 percent in 2024, according to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

 

Two, with this declining inflation trend, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has more reason and justification to further reduce interest rates. From a peak of 6.5 percent until July 2024, down to 4.75 percent last October-November 2025, then 4.5 percent last December, a cut to 4.25 percent this coming February is expected.

 

Three, among major economies in Asia, two have a deflation trend: China from two percent in 2022 to 0.2 percent in both 2023-2024 and zero in 2025 (January-November) and Thailand from 6.1 percent in 2022 to -0.1 percent in 2025. Others have declining inflation – India, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan. Only Japan has rising inflation, from 2.5 percent in 2022 to 3.3 percent in 2025.

 

Four, our unemployment rate last November was reported yesterday by the PSA at 4.4 percent, so the 2025 (January-November average) is now 4.2 percent, higher than 3.8 percent in 2024 but lower than 4.4 percent in 2023 and 5.4 percent in 2022.

 

Five, other Asian neighbors also have a mild decline in unemployment, from 2022 to 2025 respectively: China from 5.6 to 5.2 percent; Indonesia from 5.9 to 4.8 percent; Malaysia from 3.9 to 3.0 percent; South Korea from 2.9 to 2.7 percent; Japan from 2.6 to 2.5 percent; Vietnam from 2.3 to 2.2 percent.

 

Six, a coincidence if not an indirect result of China merchandise exports’ high expansion in 2025 is that it contributed to low regional and global inflation. China’s average exports in 2025 (January-October) were $308 billion/month, equivalent to combined exports of the US plus Canada plus Mexico plus Brazil of $309 billion/month. For the Philippines’ total imports, the share of China has been rising from 20 percent of total in 2022, 23 percent in 2023, 26 percent in 2024 and almost 29 percent in 2025.

 

So the Philippines and neighbors in Asia are moving into a good economic environment of declining inflation and declining unemployment. We are starting 2026 with good vibes.

 

Seven, in infrastructure development, the Ninoy Aquino International Airport recorded its highest ever number of passengers of 52 million, mostly domestic flights. Airport operator New NAIA Infrastructure Corp. (NNIC) said this was higher than the 50.1 million passengers in 2024.

 

Eight, the continuing modernization of the Bohol-Panglao International Airport and Laguindingan International Airport (Cagayan de Oro) under the multi-year concession agreements awarded by the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center in 2024.

 

Nine, the continuing expansion of Philippine seaports. For the holiday season alone, Dec. 15, 2025 to Jan. 5, 2026, the Philippine Ports Authority recorded 6.1 million passengers nationwide, higher than 4.7 million passengers for the same period in 2024.

 

See related stories this month in The STAR: “Government awards 13 PPP projects in 2025” (Jan. 1), “GIP investing P13.7 billion for 40 percent stake in Aboitiz InfraCapital” (Jan. 1), “Batanes ports get P1.4 billion upgrade” (Jan. 1), “NAIA passengers hit 52 million in 2025” (Jan.  2), “PPA records 6.1 million passengers during holidays” (Jan. 6).

 

Ten, a change in leadership at the PPP Center occurred when executive director Cynthia Hernandez left last November. The lady is a multi-talented engineer-economist-finance wizard (undergrad Engineering and graduate studies Economics from UP Diliman).

 

Among the many big infrastructure projects that materialized and were awarded during her term from July 2022 to 2025 are: (1) NAIA modernization under NNIC, not implemented in various administrations and finally awarded in September 2024; (2) Laguindingan International Airport Project and Bohol-Panglao International Airport Project modernizations, both awarded in 2024, transitioning from the BOT Law to the PPP Code and (3) Tarlac-Pangasinan-La Union Expressway Extension Project.

 

The passage of the PPP Code of 2023 was facilitated and hastened by the little dragon lady of PPP infrastructure. Good work and congratulations, Ms. Cynthia Hernandez.

BWorld 842, 10 facts about global oil production and exports in 2025

10 facts about global oil production and exports in 2025

January 6, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/01/06/722330/10-facts-about-global-oil-production-and-exports-in-2025/

 

The quick US invasion of Venezuela and capture of its president, Nicolas Maduro, was big news last week. Mr. Maduro was president from 2013-2025 and during his term, the Venezuelan economy and GDP size (at PPP values) shrank, from $561 billion in 2013 to around $224 billion in 2025. Despite this, Venezuela is a giant in the oil industry.

 

In this piece, I will highlight a number of facts about Venezuela and the international oil industry. I will also discuss the latest merchandise exports data. Here we go.

 

1. Venezuela was the third larger oil producer in the world since the 1940s. In 1965 it produced 3.5 million barrels per day (mbpd), the third largest producer after the US and the USSR. But this production shrank to only 0.96 mbpd in 2024 and around 0.94 mbpd in 2025.

 

In proven oil reserves, Venezuela is number one in the world with 303 billion barrels (bb), followed by Saudi Arabia with 267 bb, Iran with 209 bb, Canada with 163 bb, and Iraq with 145 bb (source: OPEC).

 

2. The US is the largest oil producer in the world, with 20.1 mbpd in 2024 and above 20 mbpd in 2025. The second to fifth largest producers are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, and Iran.

 

3. South America is now producing more oil, led by Brazil, Argentina, and, surprisingly, Guyana. Guyana had no oil production at all until 2018, then it produced 0.62 mbpd in 2024 and is projected to have produced 1 mbpd in 2025. Venezuela, now to be run by the US according to President Donald Trump, can expect to see oil-gas production ramp up starting this year.

 

4. China continues to slowly expand its oil production with 4.26 mbpd in 2024 and projected production at 4.32 mbpd in 2025.

 

5. Global oil production keeps rising despite anti-fossil fuel campaigns by the climate establishment and many UN organizations — from 31.8 mbpd in 1965 to 81.8 mbpd in 2005, 96.9 mbpd in 2024 and projected at 106 mbpd in 2025 (see Table 1).

 

6. In global merchandise trade, China’s exports in 2025 of $308 billion/month is equivalent to the total exports of the US + Mexico + Canada + Brazil combined at $309 billion/month.

 

7. Hong Kong overtook Japan, Italy, and South Korea in 2025 to become the 5th largest exporter in the world. Singapore overtook the UK and Canada in 2025 to become the 13th largest exporter in the world.

 

8. Taiwan has made the largest exports leapfrog. In 2025 it overtook five countries — Belgium, Singapore, the UK, Switzerland, and Canada to become the world’s 11th largest exporter. Vietnam made second largest exports leapfrog. In 2025 it overtook India, Spain ($36 billion/month), and Russia ($34 billion/month) to become the world’s 17th largest exporter.

 

9. US exports were flat from 2022 to 2024, then saw an expansion of $8 billion/month in 2025 which may not be due to product competitiveness but the result of moves by many countries to placate Trump so that he would reduce US tariffs on products from those countries.

 

10. Exports from Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and France were almost flat from 2022 to 2025, while Belgium experienced a decline (see Table 2).

 

The Philippines should integrate more economically with our Asian neighbors, especially China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and Vietnam. They are big sources of our imports, foreign direct investments, and tourism. They are also destinations for our exports and skilled workers. The Philippines’ chairmanship of the ASEAN in 2026 should help attain this.

 

Our foreign and defense policies should be consistent with our trade, investment, and tourism policies. War mongering vs China should be tamed.

PhilStar 74, 10 hopes for the new year

10 hopes for the new year

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

January 1, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/01/01/2497996/10-hopes-new-year

 

A beautiful and hopeful message for the new year was written by Ambassador Babe Romualdez the other day here in The STAR, “What most Filipinos wish for their country” (Dec. 28).

 

He noted that among overseas Filipinos in the US that he spoke with after Philippine  embassy events, “Rarely do they begin with politics or government affairs. Instead, they begin with family, ‘I wish my children could build a very good future at home’, ‘I wish we didn’t have to leave to succeed.’”

 

I take off from there and list my hopes and wishes for 2026.

 

One, more cohesive Filipino families both abroad and at home, especially at home. Like the ones narrated by the ambassador.

 

Two, more self-reliant and not state-dependent, welfare-dependent citizenry. This is consistent with the inner desires of Filipinos in the US whom the ambassador spoke with. Do not start with government or politics, start with self and family.

 

Three, corollarily a real civil-society and not uncivil-society oriented people. People who do not steal or destroy other people’s properties simply because it is wrong, not because they are scared of government penalties and jails.

 

Four, real non-government organizations (NGOs) and not government-funded organizations (GFOs). Real NGOs that do not rely on regular government funding – multilateral, national or local governments, in the process they echo the agenda of these government institutions and agencies.

 

Five, real independent academe that pursues hard research and the truth, and not what the funding agencies expect them to conclude and propose.

 

Six, a government that is focused on enforcing the rule of law. The law applies equally to unequal people, no one is exempted and no one can grant an exemption. The law applies equally to both governors and governed, both administrators and administered. Like a law on “No Parking” on certain areas should apply even on red-plate and police vehicles.

 

Seven, public spending that is constrained by limited revenues and not pushed by endless borrowings. Public spending that starts with a balanced budget, expenditures at similar level as revenues. Then moving towards sustained budget surplus, revenues are larger than expenditures and slowly but surely reduce the public debt stock.

 

Eight, foreign policy that is closely tied up with fiscal policy. We spend more on endless diplomacy not on multi-trillion pesos war preparations. We cannot even build a new bridge in EDSA across Pasig River without seeking foreign aid or foreign loans to temporarily close and repair Guadalupe Bridge. But we have the funds to buy huge jetfighters, battleships and missiles.

 

Nine, my family, my relatives, my friends, and the rest of our countrymen to have good health. And we keep pushing for a prosperous society, a wealthy Philippines.

 

I am confident that The STAR and its sister publications will be part of this persistent push for economic prosperity for the country and the Filipinos.

 

On a personal note, I am writing this with a very heavy heart. Our beloved dog Max, a chow chow, has passed away yesterday. I call him “cute bakulaw,” a big and “bakulaw” dog who simply jumps like a puppy and comes to me with big wide grin whenever I arrive, along with our eight other dogs in our barrio house in Pangasinan. He simply gives me joy whenever I come to the house and visit them, and now he is gone.

 

So my last hope for 2026.

 

Ten, that Max has successfully impregnated his girlfriend, a female chow chow, and give us new puppies soon. If this happens, one of them will be named “Max Jr.” And I hope our other dogs in the barrio will remain healthy and avoid the virus that weakened Max.

 

Happy and prosperous new year, dear readers.

BWorld 841, The Top 10 economic and commodity stories of 2025

The Top 10 economic and commodity stories of 2025

December 30, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/12/30/721490/the-top-10-economic-and-commodity-stories-of-2025/#google_vignette

 

The current holiday season and possibilities in the coming year give us joy and hope despite continuing gloom in our political establishment. These recent reports in BusinessWorld give us hope for the future: “ASEAN chairmanship to boost 2026 growth prospects, biz chamber says” (Dec. 21), “Go: Economy back on track by Q1” (Dec. 23), “Recto touts gov’t record in containing inflation” (Dec. 28).

 

Here is my list of the Top 10 economic and commodity stories of 2025.

 

1. Most Asian nations have seen rising GDP growth from 2023 to 2025 in the first three quarters (Q1-Q3) of each year; in particular: Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Those with flat or showing a slight decline in growth are: the Philippines, Indonesia, India, China, Japan, and South Korea.

 

2. Most countries in America and Europe have had declining growth, particularly: the US, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Russia, and also Australia. Those with very low growth are the UK, France, Italy, and Germany.

 

3. The fastest growing countries in 2025 in the list of the top 50 largest economies in the world are all Asian nations — India and Vietnam with 7.8% growth, Taiwan with 7.1%, China with 5.1%, and Indonesia and the Philippines with 5%. Yes, the Philippines still has high growth compared to many countries in the world.

 

4. All the pessimistic growth scenarios for 2025, especially for Asia because of Trump’s imposition of high tariffs starting April, failed to materialize.

 

5. There is overall price stability across many countries around the world, with inflation below 3.5% in 2025. Two Asian nations have seen deflation: Thailand and China. Instead of trade disruption, trade diversion is what has happened, with China exporting more to Asia and other countries at low prices, contributing to the low inflation of those countries.

 

6. The Philippines managed to cut inflation by half, from 3.2% in 2024 to only 1.6% in 2025. Low inflation is a good reason for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to cut interest rates (see Table 1).

 

7. Global energy prices have stabilized at lower levels. Looking at prices of WTI crude oil from 2021 to 2025, they are down by 24%, while coal is down by 36%. So, claims of “spiraling” fossil fuel prices are wrong. US natural gas prices are high this month because of a very cold early winter.

 

8. Gold and silver prices are through the roof. In 2025, they are 148% and 246% higher than 2021 prices, respectively. Copper showed a modest price increase. Several Philippine mining companies, like Philex, are producing gold, silver, and copper, a revenue bonanza for them and a tax bonanza for the government.

 

9. Agricultural commodities like rice and corn also experienced price declines this year. Coffee prices are up due to rising demand, while supply was affected by bad weather in major coffee producers like Brazil and Vietnam, rising logistic costs, etc. (see Table 2).

 

10. Humanity (especially in Asia) is still on a continuing march to economic prosperity this year, thanks to rising incomes, declining overall inflation, and lower energy prices. Many European nations though continue their march to deindustrialization and degrowth.

 

The Philippines chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) in 2026 will help spur more high-level business and economic partnerships with the country. Not only with other member-countries of the association, but also with the largest economies in the world since bilateral summit meetings are scheduled between the ASEAN and the US, China, Japan, India, South Korea, and the EU, which will be held in Manila sometime in October or November.

 

The various Cabinet Secretaries, led by Executive Secretary Ralph Recto, will incorporate many items in the national agenda with regional and global agenda. Press Secretary Dave Gomez will have a big challenge communicating nationwide the significance of those meetings and agreements to the Filipino people.

 

Have a happy and prosperous new year, dear readers.