Friday, December 31, 2021

BWorld 521, Europe’s blackout economics and the Philippines’ path to brownouts

* My column in BusinessWorld, December 27, 2021.

Rolling blackout due to the tight power supply started already in Europe on Dec. 23, in Kosovo then Serbia. There were also power supply warnings in the United Kingdom, while France’s nuclear power output has declined significantly and they must get power from somewhere else.

The continent experienced calm weather over the past several months so wind output was low and power supply was tight, bordering on blackouts as early as September this year. So, they shifted to natural gas and prices jumped through the roof — from only €19.12 on Dec. 31, 2020 to €180.27 on Dec. 21 this year, 9.4 times higher than the 2020 mark or an 843% hike.


Blackout economics is the policy of shrinking the supply of stable, reliable, dispatchable power while raising the supply of unstable, unreliable, intermittent power like wind and solar, leading to stretched and thin reserves while demand rises. It is a deliberate move to invite blackouts while consistently raising power prices.

The biggest practitioner of blackout economics would be the biggest economy of Europe, Germany. Despite this tight power supply and very high gas prices, Germany, which had 17 nuclear power plants until 2011, will close three of its six remaining nuclear power plants at the end of this month — that’s next week — then close the last three by December 2022. In addition, they will also close all coal power plants by 2030.

Germany’s new government, led by the political socialist Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the environmental socialist Greens party, hastened this irrational energy transition. The pro-business, pro-market Free Democratic Party (FDP) that joined the coalition has been compromised by the socialistic energy agenda of its two partners.

This should not be the case because the world has a huge supply of conventional power like natural gas and coal both for the present and future.


Many countries have abundant reserves on the ground such that if they continue their current yearly production for domestic and the export markets, their reserves/production (R/P) ratio will last for hundreds of years. The proven natural gas reserves in Russia are 37,392 billion cubic meters (BCM) and 12,619 BCM in the US. The R/P ratio for natural gas is 334 years in Venezuela, 231 years in Turkmenistan, 144 years in Qatar, and 128 years in Iran.

For coal, the R/P ratio is much longer: 1,429 years in the Ukraine, 514 years in the US, 407 years in Russia, 334 years in Germany, and 315 years in Australia. Our ASEAN neighbors’ R/P ratio: Indonesia has 62 years and Vietnam has 69 years. No data for the Philippines is given (see Table 1).

So, for the Philippines, an abundant supply of coal can be sourced from Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, and the US, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to augment or replace the natural gas from Malampaya can be sourced from the Middle East and the US.


A power blackout is the complete outage or shutdown of electricity due to strong storms, and very low supply on days and hours with high demand. A brownout is a partial outage of electricity, when the system capacity and voltages are reduced by at least 10-25%.

Consider these four reports in BusinessWorld this month:

“RE projects with 16,000 MW capacity make DoE initial cut” (Dec. 9),

“PHL signs on to OECD clean-energy financing program” (Dec. 13),

“PSALM ordered not to take on more liabilities from Mindanao power co-ops owing billions” (Dec. 17),

“Meralco proceeds with bids for 170-MW emergency supply” (Dec. 24).

The first two reports are related. More unstable and intermittent renewable energy (RE) like 10,935 MW of wind and 4,251 MW of solar will be added in the coming years, with only one coal plant (300 MW in San Carlos City, Negros Occidental) and one huge LNG plant (6,492-MW in Navotas by San Miguel Electric Corp.) having obtained clearance from the Department of Energy (DoE). The Philippines signed up with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Clean Energy Finance and Investment Mobilization (CEFIM) Program that will push more intermittent RE in the country’s grid.

The third report is about a tight financial situation that the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM) is in. As of Oct. 31 this year, two delinquent electric cooperatives owed PSALM P15.41 billion: P12.40 billion from Lanao del Sur Electric Cooperative, Inc. (LASURECO) and P2.91 billion from Maguindanao Electric Cooperative, Inc. (MAGELCO).

This could be the main reason why PSALM was given P16 billion by Congress for 2021 and 2022 (see this column on Sept. 13, Taxpayers nationwide will pay for the loans of these two electric cooperatives which may have no intention of paying, and plunge their customers into darkness if their abuses are not tolerated further.

The last report is about Meralco’s plan to get peaking plant power supply covering Feb. 26 to July 25, 2022 to protect itself and its customers from potential blackouts and price surges in the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) over those five months. Good move.


At a media briefing by the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) on Dec. 21, they reported that the load weighted average price (LWAP) for the December billing has increased to P6.32/kWh due to thin supply caused by forced and planned outages of major plants.

The increase in prices in 2019 were understandable due to high demand before the pandemic while some big plants were in forced outages. The drastic decline in 2020 was due to the strict and prolonged pandemic lockdown and business closures. Prices jumped again to P5-8/kwh from May to October 2021 except in September, leading to prices this year approaching those in 2019 (see Table 2).

A number of big conventional plants like coal, natural gas, big hydro and geothermal are old and ageing, which occasionally leads to unscheduled or extended closure for repairs and maintenance. We need new big plants of similar technology, plus small modular reactors (SMRs) — nukes — to provide baseload and mid-merit power and avoid blackouts, or even brownouts.

Energy development should be guided by market demand and supply, not politics and the environmental lobby. A heavily politicized power policy leads to more politics than a stable power supply. We should avoid the European pathway and follow that which many of our big Asian neighbors have taken.

Happy new year, dear readers.

See also:
BWorld 518, Kill coal is kill growth agenda, December 18, 2021
BWorld 519, Tax pressure and motorcycle taxis, December 20, 2021
BWorld 520, Seven trends in COVID cases, vaccination, and causes of death, December 30, 2021.

Thursday, December 30, 2021

Covid 64, All-time high new Covid cases in high-vax countries

Yesterday Dec. 29, all-time high single day Covid cases were recorded in many high-vaxxed countries:

World 1.61M,
US 465.7k, France 208.1k,
UK 183.0k, Spain 100.8k,
Italy 98.0k, Greece 28.8k,
Portugal 26.9k, Denmark 22.0k,
Australia 18.2k, Ireland 16.4k.
Canada 49.1k (Dec 27), Switzerland 16.8k (Dec 28).

Instead of the promised: more vax = more protection = less infections,

What happened is the reverse: more vax = less protection = more infections.

We leave 2021 and enter 2022 with even more mutilated immune system, more sickly people.

Meanwhile, some recent reports and studies re vax:

Occurrence and Features of Childhood Myocarditis: A Nationwide Study in Finland

A Report on Myocarditis Adverse Events in the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) in Association with COVID-19 Injectable Biological Products
Jessica Rose PhD, MSc, BSc , Peter A. McCullough MD, MPH

Acute Myocarditis Following COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination in Adults Aged 18 Years or Older
Anthony Simone, MD1; John Herald, MD1; Aiyu Chen, MPH2; et al

Myocarditis after Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination

Case Report: Acute Fulminant Myocarditis and Cardiogenic Shock After Messenger RNA Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination Requiring Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation
Lim, Yongwhan et al

Myocarditis-induced Sudden Death after BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccination in Korea: Case Report Focusing on Histopathological Findings
Sangjoon Cho

The SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein disrupts human cardiac pericytes function through CD147-receptor-mediated signalling: a potential non-infective mechanism of COVID-19 microvascular disease

SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccination-Associated Myocarditis in Children Ages 12-17: A Stratified National Database Analysis
Tracy Beth Høeg

Management of Myocarditis-Related Cardiomyopathy in Adults
Carsten Tschöpe

Fauci, Emails, and Some Alleged Science
Phil Magness  James R. Harrigan  December 19, 2021

Boosted immunity to the common cold might protect children from COVID-19
Jason J. Lavinder & Gregory C. Ippolito
Nature Immunology volume 23, pages8–10 (2022)
22 December 2021

New data show that, compared with adults, children infected by SARS-CoV-2 preferentially activate pre-existing immunity to endemic common-cold coronaviruses that are cross-reactive with SARS-CoV-2, with potential implications for pediatric vaccine strategies.

Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive spike-specific immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection
Alexander C. Dowell, Megan S. Butler, Elizabeth Jinks, Gokhan Tut, Tara Lancaster, Panagiota Sylla, Jusnara Begum, Rachel Bruton, Hayden Pearce, Kriti Verma, Nicola Logan, Grace Tyson, Eliska Spalkova, Sandra Margielewska-Davies, Graham S. Taylor, Eleni Syrimi, Frances Baawuah, Joanne Beckmann, Ifeanyichukwu O. Okike, Shazaad Ahmad, Joanna Garstang, Andrew J. Brent, Bernadette Brent, Georgina Ireland, Felicity Aiano, Zahin Amin-Chowdhury, Samuel Jones, Ray Borrow, Ezra Linley, John Wright, Rafaq Azad, Dagmar Waiblinger, Chris Davis, Emma C. Thomson, Massimo Palmarini, Brian J. Willett, Wendy S. Barclay, John Poh, Gayatri Amirthalingam, Kevin E. Brown, Mary E. Ramsay, Jianmin Zuo, Paul Moss & Shamez Ladhani Show fewer authors

Nature Immunology volume 23, pages40–49 (2022)
Published: 22 December 2021

Striking antibody evasion manifested by the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2

Lihong Liu , Sho Iketani , Yicheng Guo , Jasper F-W. Chan , Maple Wang , Liyuan Liu , Yang Luo , Hin Chu , Yiming Huang , Manoj S. Nair , Jian Yu , Kenn K-H. Chik , Terrence T-T. Yuen , Chaemin Yoon , Kelvin K-W. To , Honglin Chen , Michael T. Yin , Magdalena E. Sobieszczyk , Yaoxing Huang , Harris H. Wang , Zizhang Sheng , Kwok-Yung Yuen & David D. Ho

23 December 2021

We found B.1.1.529 to be markedly resistant to neutralization by serum not only from convalescent patients, but also from individuals vaccinated with one of the four widely used COVID-19 vaccines. Even serum from persons vaccinated and boosted with mRNA-based vaccines exhibited substantially diminished neutralizing activity against B.1.1.529...

Does Omicron Represent the Beginning of the End of COVID-19? South African-led Research Raises a Glimmer of Hope
TrialSite Staff.  December 28, 2021

...the study authors discuss their findings: the highly transmissible yet seemingly milder Omicron demonstrated 14 days after enrollment a 14-fold boost in neutralization against Omicron with a 4.4 fold boost of neutralization to the Delta variant.

SARS-CoV-2 Loves the Vaccines
eugyppius. Dec 28 2021

The mRNA vaccines aren’t very safe; they cause a wealth of severe side effects, particularly in the lowest-risk age cohorts. These side effects outweigh the risks of SARS-2 infection for everyone under 40; for those in good health facing the vastly milder Omicron, there is really no reason to be vaccinated. The second dose of Moderna is particularly dangerous for young men.

Bhakdi/Burkhardt pathology results show 93% of people who died after being vaccinated were killed by the vaccine
Steve Kirsch.  Dec 29 2021

The vaccines are bad news. Fifteen bodies were examined (all died from 7 days to 6 months after vaccination; ages 28 to 95). The coroner or the public prosecutor didn’t associate the vaccine as the cause of death in any of the cases. However, further examination revealed that the vaccine was implicated in the deaths of 14 of the 15 cases. The most attacked organ was the heart (in all of the people who died), but other organs were attacked as well. The implications are potentially enormous resulting in millions of deaths. The vaccines should be immediately halted.

Pandemic of the Vaccinated: Two Studies Show New Evidence that Covid-19 Vaccines “Cause More Illness than They Prevent”
By Julian Conradson.  December 29, 2021 at 7:57pm

Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron or Delta variants following a two-dose or booster BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccination series: A Danish cohort study
Christian Holm Hansen, Astrid Blicher Schelde, Ida Rask Moustsen-Helm, Hanne-Dorthe Emborg, Tyra Grove Krause, Kåre Mølbak, Palle Valentiner-Branth

... from Danish nationwide databases of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the novel SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) up to five months after a primary vaccination series with the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines.

... we found a VE against the Omicron variant of 55.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.5 to 73.7%) and 36.7% (95% CI: 69.9 to 76.4%) for the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines, respectively, in the first month after primary vaccination. However, the VE is significantly lower than that against Delta infection and declines rapidly over just a few months. The VE is re-established upon revaccination with the BNT162b2 vaccine (54.6%, 95% CI: 30.4 to 70.4%).

See also:
Covid 61, CCH and CDC Ph full page ads re mandatory vaccination, December 14, 2021
Covid 62, CDC Ph longer draft for the full-page ad, December 15, 2021
Covid 63, No Tricks Zone on vaccine and medical tyranny, December 25, 2021.

BWorld 520, Seven trends in COVID cases, vaccination, and causes of death

* My article in BusinessWorld,  December 20, 2021.

In discussing the chart accompanying this piece, here is the data on vaccination rates as a percentage of population, as of Dec. 18: 81-84% for Denmark, Canada, Spain, South Korea; 72-79% for France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK, the US, and Vietnam; Switzerland 68%, Poland 57%, Indonesia 55%, and the Philippines 51%. (Source:

One, high vaccination rate countries continue to have a high if not a record-high number of COVID cases. Record highs recently were experienced by the UK, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzer-land, Norway, South Korea, and Vietnam.

Two, some low vaccination rate countries experience declining cases. Indonesia and the Philippines are clear example.

Three, a vaccination plateau continues in many of these countries. Vaccination rates as of Oct. 31: 76%-81% for Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, South Korea, Spain; the UK 73%, the US 67%, Switzerland 66%, Poland 54%, Vietnam 53%, Indonesia 43%, the Philippines 30%.

So, Spain and South Korea have marginally increased their vaccination rates from 80-81% on Oct. 31 to 83-84% on Dec. 18; Italy and Norway from 77% on Oct. 31 to 78-79% on Dec. 18; the UK and the Netherlands from 73% and 76% on Oct. 31 to 75% and 77% on Dec. 18.

Last Saturday, Dec. 18, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the “Causes of Deaths in the Philippines (Preliminary): January to September 2021.” I include in the table in this piece the full year results from 2019 to give some additional perspective, then I computed the change from 2020 to 2021.

Four, there was a big increase of 39,100 deaths from ischemic heart diseases (heart attacks, etc.) in the first nine months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. There was also an increase of 4,400 deaths from hy-pertensive and other heart diseases.

Five, there was a big increase of 28,500 deaths from COVID, over the same months in 2021 and 2020.

Six, there was a big decline of 15,400 deaths from neoplasms/cancer, pneumonia, and tuberculosis. These could be instances of people with cancer and tuberculosis who got COVID and were counted as COVID deaths.

Seven, deaths from assault and suicides (intentional self-harm) declined. These could be due to closed bars and reduced gathering of people. Good thing that suicides have declined this year. The increase in heart diseases could be related to rising cases of myocarditis post-vaccination. In the Open VAERS, COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports (, there were 965,841 re-ports through Dec. 10. According to these reports, there were 20,244 deaths, 106,129 hospitalizations, 35,529 severe allergic reactions, 33,675 permanently disabled, 19,039 myocarditis/pericarditis, 10,229 heart attacks. 

Meanwhile, COVID Call to Humanity (CCH, put out a full-page ad in the Philippine Daily Inquirer on Dec. 1, an “Open Letter to the Filipino People: An Appeal to Common Sense Regarding Forced Vaccinations.”

They highlighted some facts that “All the COVID-19 vaccines currently being administered by the Philippine government are still experimental in nature, (RA 11525, Section 2c) have not yet completed Stage III clinical trials… Based on official WHO statistics, the COVID-19 vaccines have generated more than 2.5 million reports of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) worldwide within this past year. (WHO VigiAccess database,” Then the Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC Ph, put out its own full-page ad in the same paper on Dec. 10, International Human Rights Day, “Every Life Matters: An Open Letter to the Filipino People Regarding the Medical, Ethical, Legal and Economic Issues of Mandatory Vaccination.”

They pointed out, among others, that “The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) must be upheld. The Philippines is a signatory… provides for, among others, the right to life (Article 6), the right to freely consent to medical experimentation (Article 7), and the right to thought, conscience and religion (Article 18). These rights cannot be derogated from even ‘in time of public emergency which threatens the life of the nation.’ (Article 4)… intended to prevent a repeat of the horrors of the Holocaust and the flagrant human rights violations by Nazi and Fascist countries during World War II, all ostensibly committed in the name of public welfare.”

CDC Ph then made these calls, “Revoke IATF Resolution No. 148-B for being unreasonable, oppressive, discriminatory, and confiscatory of people’s lives, liberty, and property without due process of law. Categorically declare the COVID-19 vaccination to be voluntary, and to order all public and private sector agencies and offices to ensure free and informed choice in the implementation of the vaccination program…”

There has been a significant rise in number of total deaths this year as vaccinations rolled out. The huge vaccine procurements (P70 billion plus P12.5 billion for logistics, storage and transportation in 2021, a planned P61-billion procurement in 2022, logistics not included yet) contributed to huge jump in government borrowings (P73 billion/month in 2019, P208 billion/month in 2020, P247 billion/month until October 2021). There has been reduced mobility of people, work and business as vaccine discrimination continues. There is an absence of data and studies of the long-term health effect of vaccines. There is the entry of the more infectious but mild variant Omicron that contributes to natural infection leading to natural immunity.

These are among the reasons why the seemingly blind pursuit to mass vaccination and implicit vax mandate via discrimination should pause.

Merry Christmas, dear readers.

See also: 
BWorld 517, Economic forum and COVID summit (part 2), December 15, 2021
BWorld 518, Kill coal is kill growth agenda, December 18, 2021
BWorld 519, Tax pressure and motorcycle taxis, December 20, 2021.

Saturday, December 25, 2021

Energy 158, Europe rolling blackout, Germany's anti-nuke anti-coal policy

The other day, rolling blackout in Europe has already started, first in Kosovo, next in Serbia, and power supply warnings in UK, and France experienced tight supply with nuke power outages. When people and governments politicize energy development, there are more politics than energy. See recent developments here.

(1) Gross Energy Mismanagement: Energy Expert Warns Of Europe Power Blackouts, “Numerous Deaths”
By P Gosselin on 23. November 2021

The danger of blackouts in Europe is increasing, warns a German energy export. The result could be “numerous deaths “.  Also, $10 a gallon not far off…

(2) Greece Puts Coal Power Plants Shut Down in 2019 Back Into Operation…To Avert Winter Blackouts!
By P Gosselin on 8. December 2021

Until recently, Greece was one of the largest operators of lignite-fired power plants in Europe, but in 2019 the new government took on the goal of shutting down all coal-fired power plants by 2023 and going green by 2030.

But that has turned out to be easier said than done. Greece now is putting lignite-fired power plants back into operation after a recent study by Greek electricity regulator RAE found the supply was at risk, especially in the cold winter months – due to the lack of reliable baseload power supply.

(3) Netherlands Goes Nuclear In Massive Atomic Humanist Victory!
Dutch government will keep existing nuclear plant operating AND build two more full-sized water-cooled plants
Michael Shellenberger    Dec 16 2021

(4) @Greta: IEA Expects 2021 To Be Record Year For Global Coal-Fired Electricity Generation…”Highs As Soon As 2022″!
By P Gosselin on 18. December 2021

(5) Coal power’s sharp rebound is taking it to a new record in 2021, threatening net zero goals
17 December 2021

After falling in 2019 and 2020, global power generation from coal is expected to jump by 9% in 2021 to an all-time high of 10,350 terawatt-hours, according to the IEA’s Coal 2021 report, which was released today. 

(6) UK Natural Gas Prices Hit New High, Trigger "Marketwide Crisis"

(7) Industrial energy consumers urge EU leaders to swiftly act against unbearably high energy prices

The energy price crisis has hit most of the European countries. In recent months the energy prices have increased 4 to 5 times, reaching even higher levels over the last days. In parallel, carbon prices have tripled since the beginning of the year. The main reasons for this situation are the financial market speculation from financial players including hedge funds and commodity trading houses, the imbalances in the gas market, seasonally decreased renewable energy production, reduced nuclear energy production, coal mine closures and increased carbon costs passed on in electricity prices. It has consequently forced numerous industrial energy consumers to curtail and/or temporarily close plants.

(8) EU energy crisis deepens as France and Germany ‘make a mockery' of green transition plan
THE EUROPEAN Union's energy crisis has deepened as France and Germany stall over green transition plans.
By ANTONY ASHKENAZ.  09:20, Wed, Dec 22, 2021

Across the continent, prices per megawatt-hour (MWh) now exceed €300 (£256) in most countries. With the exception of Poland and Scandinavia, all countries in Europe have broken the €300 MWh barrier with France and Switzerland nearly at €400 (£341.60).

(9) Analysis: Weak winds worsened Europe's power crunch; utilities need better storage
By Nora Buli and Stine Jacobsen.  December 22, 2021  2:18 PM PST

Europe's largest wind producers Britain, Germany and Denmark harnessed just 14% of installed capacity, in the third quarter, when gas prices hit record highs, compared with an average of 20-26% seen in previous years, according to Refinitiv data.

The world's biggest developer of offshore wind farms, Orsted (ORSTED.CO) said the lower wind speeds had a negative 2.5 billion crowns ($379.20 million) impact for the first nine months of the year compared to 2020.

Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE) said weaker winds caused profits at its wind and solar units to fall by 38% in the first nine months of the year.

(10) European Firms Warn "Unbearably High Energy Costs" May Spark Wave Of Production Shutdowns


(11) U.S. LNG Cargoes Flock To Europe Amid Record-High Gas Prices
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 23, 2021, 9:00 AM CST

At least 30 tankers with liquefied natural gas from the United States are headed to Europe

Ten LNG tankers from the U.S. have already declared Europe as their destination while another 20 cargoes appear to be crossing the Atlantic en route to Europe

Another ten LNG cargoes have been diverted from Asia to Europe as European LNG prices are now much higher than the prices in Asia

(12) European Gas Drops 18% As US Sends LNG Flotilla

(13) Europe’s Energy Crisis Deepens as Kosovo Rolls Out Power Cuts
By Jesper Starn and Misha Savic
December 23, 2021, 11:26 PM GMT+8

Balkan nation introduces two-hour cuts for most consumers
Europe’s energy crunch is curbing industrial production

"Four out of five units at the 800-megawatt lignite plant were operating, according to data from grid association Entso-E. Imports -- from neighboring Albania, Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia -- dropped from a peak above 750 megawatts on Wednesday to about 469 megawatt at 1 p.m. on Thursday, it said."

(14) Rolling Blackouts Spread Across Europe Amid Energy Crisis
BY TYLER DURDEN   FRIDAY, DEC 24, 2021 - 09:17 AM

Germany's anti-nuke, anti-coal policy

(1) E-Vehicle Woes: German Cities Remove E-Buses From Service After Bursting In Flames: “Fire Hazard”
By P Gosselin on 7. November 2021

E-buses in Germany a “fire hazard” as batteries can heat up to 1000°C. German cities taking vehicles out of service as a precaution.

(2) Weather Lulls: Germany Forced To Burn 20% More Coal, The Very Energy Source That’s To Be Phased Out
By P Gosselin on 27. November 2021

The energy source that Germany moves to shut down, rescued the country from widespread blackouts in 2021.

(3) “Slow Disaster Playing Out” As Germany Moves To Shut Down 8.5 GW Of Baseload Nuclear Capacity
By P Gosselin on 28. November 2021

At FaceBook, Dane Peter Bardland presents a chart and commentary on Germany’s upcoming rapid nuclear power phaseout.

By the end of 2022, the government will have shut down another 6 plants with a total (baseload) capacity of 8.54 gigawatts!

(4) Germany’s New Government Plans To Use 10% Of Country’s Land Area For Wind Turbines
By P Gosselin on 12. December 2021

Germany’s coalition agreement and the 2% target for wind energy
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Text translated/edited by P. Gosselin)

(5) Germany’s Reaction To The Energy Crisis Could Be Catastrophic
By Julianne Geiger - Dec 22, 2021, 6:00 PM CST

This year, Germany plans to shut down the Grohnde, Gundremmingen C, and Brokdorf nuclear plants, which will leave Germany with just three. Those final three will be retired by the end of next year. 

For coal, Germany has agreed to phase out coal by 2030—up from its previous goal of retiring coal in the country by 2038.

(6) Germany’s Energy Surrender
Rarely has a country worked so hard to make itself vulnerable.
Bad policy choices contribute to the energy supply crunch.
By The Editorial Board. Dec. 22, 2021 6:52 pm ET

Ten years ago 17 nuclear reactors produced about a quarter of Germany’s electricity, but the 2011 Fukushima accident prompted former Chancellor Angela Merkel to phase out nuclear. Six reactors remain: Three will close this month, with the remaining three ceasing operations next year. It’s hard to think of a more self-defeating policy on economic, climate and geopolitical grounds.


See also:
Energy 155, IEA flip-flop on oil and gas, Germany's high power prices and blackout, September 24, 2021
Energy 156, More on Europe going back to coal and gas, October 14, 2021 
Energy 157, Blackout-friendly RE, Europe experience and lessons for the PH, December 18, 2021.

Covid 63, No Tricks Zone on vaccine and medical tyranny

This is a continuation of  Covid 57, No Tricks Zone on vaccine mandates (October 10, 2021). Thanks again to Pierre Gosselin of NTZ for these updates in Germany and other European countries. Enjoy.

(1) Counterintuitive: More Vaccinations Leads To More Infections, Hospitalizations, Deaths
By Kenneth Richard on 11. October 2021

The narrative that says the vaccinated are shielded from COVID infection, hospitalization, and death is undermined by observational evidence that says the opposite.

(2) Robert Koch Institute Latest Data: One Third Of Recent Age 60+ COVID Deaths In Germany Were Fully Vaccinated!
By P Gosselin on 16. October 2021

Russian state German language RT news site here looks at just how effective the COVID vaccines have been in Germany over the last 4 weeks, citing data from official institutes, and finds the German government is misleading the public. 

(3) 90% Vaccinated Senior Facility Sees “Massive” COVID Outbreak! And: COVID Alarmist Grabs Pfizer Cash
By P Gosselin on 20. October 2021

“Massive Corona outbreak” at German senior care facility where 90% were vaccinated. 
At a German care facility for the elderly in Bad Doberan, near the Baltic port city of Rostock, 66 of its 83 residents  tested positive for Corona while seven died in the hospital, reports the Nordkurier here.

(4) CDC Reports 28x More Fully Vaxxed Than Unvaxxed Were Hospitalized With COVID June-Sept
By Kenneth Richard on 1. November 2021

A new CDC study (inadvertently?) finds 28 times more fully vaccinated patients (5,213) were hospitalized with COVID from June to September than the unvaccinated with prior infection (189) in nine U.S. states.

(5) German Site Compiles List Of 75 Young Athletes Unexpectedly Suffering Cardiac Arrest Since June
By P Gosselin on 5. November 2021

Invasion of the Body Vaxxers? Young athletes mysteriously collapsing from cardiac arrest, many even dying.

(6) COVID Vaccines Falling Like Dominoes…Unsafe, Ineffective. Naïve To Think It All Could Be Rushed
By P Gosselin on 10. November 2021

Cardiovascular side effects: Now Taiwan halts Biontech after European countries pause Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and Astra Zeneca…governments extremely naïve to think years-long process could be winged in a matter of weeks.

(7) Doomsday Vaccine? German Physician: “Corona ‘Vaccines’: A Programmed Self-Destruction Of The Body”
By P Gosselin on 17. November 2021

Dr. Christian Fiala, a general practitioner, specialist in gynecology and obstetrics, with training in tropical medicine...

When the Corona virus enters the body, the immune system recognizes the invader on the basis of the spike protein antigen and destroys the virus or the cells that have already been infected by the virus.
With the mRNA corona “vaccination”, body cells are for the first time in history deliberately and genetically programmed by means of the mRNA to produce the spike protein as a (foreign) antigen on the cell surface, although they are completely healthy and not infected with the virus.

(8) Climate Issue Hardly Matters Anymore…. Austria, Germany, Europe Race Towards Medical Tyranny
By P Gosselin on 19. November 2021

Life in Germany and Austria has become extremely depressed and suppressed. People walk around with faces covered by masks and keeping distance from one another. Distrust is everywhere, everyone is being viewed as a potential lethal pathogen. The paranoia here is surreal.

Right now people 12 years and older are only permitted to go outside for essential activities such as work, attending classes, grocery shopping. Military-like police have a presence as if the country is under military occupation. Any unvaccinated person breaking the rules can be fined up to €1,450. Beatings by on the streets by the police take place routinely. No one seems to care about police brutality anymore.

(9) German Physician Warns Already Vaxxed: “Don’t Get Another Shot Under Any Circumstances!“
By P Gosselin on 21. November 2021

German physician and public health expert Wolfgang Wodarg... “The spikes are dangerous – very dangerous. They damage everything wherever they show up: in the brain, in the spleen, in the intestines – and I can’t understand that we are allowing these spikes to be produced inside ourselves. That is the biggest risk.”

(10) Tis The Season To Be Hateful: Hanover Excludes Unvaccinated From Advent And Christmas Celebrations
By P Gosselin on 24. November 2021

Madness, hate and ignorance pervade over Christmas this year. Unvaccinated persons are forbidden to order food or drink at the traditional outdoor Christmas market in Hanover. “Whoever wishes to consume food or drinks must first provide proof of being fully vaccinated (geimpft) or being recovered (genesen). Passing on food or drink to persons who are neither vaccinated nor recovered is not allowed.”

(11) The Lancet: German/US Treatment Of The Unvaccinated Risks Summoning Nazi/Racist Past
By Kenneth Richard on 25. November 2021

At a time (October, 2021) when 90% of the new COVID cases in UK residents 60 or older are fully vaccinated, a German physician publishing in The Lancet asserts it is “grossly negligent” to suggest the vaccinated are not a relevant source of viral infection and transmission as he pleads for privileged Western societies to refrain from treating their unvaccinated minorities as subhuman.

(12) Germans Jabbing In The Dark With The Delusional Hopes Something Works. Making It Up As They Go
By P Gosselin on 3. December 2021

(13) Austria: New Law Against Vaccine Opponents Foresees 1 Year Imprisonment For Vaccine Critics!
By P Gosselin on 5. December 2021

The fine for not complying to the vaccine mandate has been reduced to €2000 instead of €7200... in future, vaccination critics in Austria will be threatened with one year’s imprisonment....
The amendment has already passed the parliamentary committee. The vaccination critics will have their own detention rooms, and the costs for meals will be charged to ‘the obligated’.”

Meanwhile, Germany’s Paul Ehrlich Institute data shows that vaccine related deaths in the country have exploded some 100-fold in 2021:

In most years, less than a dozen vaccine deaths occurred. But in 2009, 40 deaths linked to the swine flu vaccine occurred. As a result, the vaccine was immediately suspended that year. In 2021, a whopping 1450 deaths were reported as of August. But the vaccine continues to be vigorously encouraged and in some countries mandates are planned with boosters possibly every year if not semiannually!

(14) German Statistics Office: Death Number Surges 25.3% …Cannot Be Explained By COVID
By P Gosselin on 11. December 2021

The Federal Statistical Office reports:
In September and October (+10% each), death figures markedly surpassed the median of the preceding years again. The COVID-19 deaths reported can only partly explain this development. The mortality figures so far available for November exceed the comparative value to an even greater extent. Death figures in the first two weeks of November (1 to 7 and 8 to 14 November) were 16% and 17% and in the third and fourth week (15 to 21 and 22 to 28 November) 23% and 25% above that value. Since mid-October, the number of COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has increased again markedly, too.”

(15) Millions Of Unvaccinated Germans Relegated To Bare Essentials As Leadership Descends Into Lunacy
By P Gosselin on 15. December 2021

Dystopia: underway in Germany is an aggressive government and media-led campaign that aims to hound and marginalize unvaccinated persons until they submit to vaccination against their will.
Dogs and unvaccinated stay outside
Department stores close off sections to the unvaccinated
No more than 2 visitors
Mandatory vaccinations, fines, jail coming...

(16) It’s Official: COVID Vaccines’ Infection/Disease Protection Lasts 3-6 Months, Then It ‘Vanishes’
By Kenneth Richard on 16. December 2021

A summary of some of the latest research affirms COVID vaccine effectiveness at preventing and reducing disease/viral load is very temporary and prone to disappearing. This suggests shot after shot in perpetuity is required to maintain one’s “vaccinated” status.

(Viral loads of Delta-variant SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections after vaccination and booster with BNT162b2
Matan Levine-Tiefenbrun, Idan Yelin, Hillel Alapi, Rachel Katz, Esma Herzel, Jacob Kuint, Gabriel Chodick, Sivan Gazit, Tal Patalon & Roy Kishony 
Published: 02 November 2021

(17) German Judges, State Attorneys, Elaborate 10 Reasons Against Compulsory COVID-19 Vaccinations
By P Gosselin on 22. December 2021

10 reasons against compulsory vaccination
1. Offers only self protection
2. No correlation between infections and vaccination rates
3. Not comparable to measles, small pox
4. Vaccinated have high viral load
5. Many hospitalized are fully vaccinated
6. No overloading of the healthcare system...

(18) World Leading Microbiologist Warns mRNA Vaccines May Have Opened Gates Of Immunological Hell
By P Gosselin on 24. December 2021

(Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, retired Prof. and former head of the Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, University of Mainz, Germany)

In his latest video, he describes what pathologists have been finding in vaccinated patients who have died shortly after being injected with mRNA vaccines. The spike protein producing MRNA nanoparticles are attacking organs in a significant number of patients. Bhakdi even goes to say that what governments and health authorities are doing is tantamount to lining kids up against the wall.

See also:

Monday, December 20, 2021

BWorld 519, Tax pressure and motorcycle taxis

* My column in BusinessWorld, December 13, 2021.

The Philippines’ growth scenario has somehow turned optimistic, with the belief that we can probably return to the 2019 level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the monetary value of all finished goods and services made within a country during a specific period) of P19.38 trillion by around the third quarter 2022. GDP size contracted to only P17.53 trillion in 2020.

Such optimism is not reflected in the government’s fiscal position because it continues to deteriorate. For instance, government borrowings per month on average were P73 billion in 2019, then shot up to P208 billion in 2020, and P247 billion until October 2021. More borrowings, higher public debt today means higher taxes tomorrow.

In 2017, the budget deficit (revenues lower than expenditures) was only P351 billion and government raised many excise taxes. Oil and coal products were among those taxed higher (see Table 1).

Tax pressure will begin in 2022 as the new administration will have to raise some existing taxes or create new ones and oil products are likely among those that will be affected. When oil prices are high, partly due to high oil taxes, many people shift to motorcycles because the oil mileage on average is three to five times better than cars. For those who are scared to drive motorcycles or ride bicycles and are in a hurry, they will take a motorcycle taxi, which is cheaper than a regular (car) taxi.

Compared to neighbors in the ASEAN, the Philippines has a modest number of registered motorcycles — 7.33 million in 2020 including tricycles, lower than eight million in 2019 probably because many motorcycle owners did not register their vehicles anymore.

The number of taxis in the Philippines has also declined from the 2013 level, probably because technology and app-based ride hailing cars have become more popular (see Table 2).


Currently there is no law that allows motorcycle (MC) taxis so a bill was filed, but Congress wanted data to guide them in crafting the bill. So, a pilot project was launched with three players — Joyride, Angkas, and Move It — as participants. A fourth player, Grab Philippines, was not included, with no clear reason why. The pilot project has been ongoing for almost two years already and overseen by the MC Taxi Technical Working Group (MCT TWG), composed of the Department of Transportation (DoTr), the Land Transportation Office (LTO), Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA), Philippine National Police (PNP), and Inter-Agency Council for Traffic  (I-ACT).

Meanwhile, illegal “habal-habal” motorcycle taxis freely operate in many areas of the country, especially in Mindanao, and even in Metro Manila. They exist because there is passenger demand.

Consider these three recent reports in BusinessWorld:

1. “Grab PHL, MOVE IT partner for motorcycle taxi hailing services” (Sept. 23),

2. “Transport workers allocated P10 billion for service contracts” (Nov. 22),

3. “Motorcycle taxis are here to stay,” Opinion by Enrique F. Nitura (Nov. 23).

Report No. 1 is about the entry of Grab Philippines as a fourth player in MC taxi. The Grab PHL and Move It partnership was allowed by the MCT TWG on Sept. 23, and cancelled by Oct. 1.

Report No. 2 is about the government subsidy to bus companies, mainly in Metro Manila, that give “Libreng Sakay” (free rides), also certain jeepney groups. Such a subsidy however, is not extended to regular taxis or motorcycle taxis.

Report No. 3 is an opinion by the author that one problem is an antiquated Land Transportation and Traffic Code (RA 4136, 1964) which does not consider motorcycles as public utility automobiles.


On Oct. 11, 2020, Senate President Pro Tempore Ralph G. Recto issued a press statement arguing that “Allowing motorcyle taxis will save jobs, expand transport options without need for government bailout… one job-creating public service that will not cost the government a single centavo… one motorcycle taxi driver back on the road is one ayuda recipient off the list. And a big chunk of the cost of gas they buy are taxes that help pay for health services.”

Mr. Recto added that “stringent health and safety standards” be put in place. On the high joblessness rate, “One culprit is the lack of transportation. We’ve given too much focus on ease of doing business for corporations. We should also find ways on how there can be ease of going to work for employees.”

Amen to that, Sen. Ralph.

In a Philippine Daily Inquirer story on Dec. 8, “Motorcycle taxis in PH: Weighing convenience, safety,” it reported the following:

“In February 2020, the Technical Working Group (TWG) on motorcycle taxis said 46,713 motorcycles had been registered in the government’s initial move to allow their operations on condition of documentary and regulatory completion based on the TWG’s revised guidelines.

“… In November 2020, as COVID-19 lockdowns were eased, 10,400 riders (6,400 from Angkas and 4,000 from Joyride) were allowed to operate motorcycle taxis.

“… the Metro Manila Development Authority said an average of 86 motorcycle-related accidents occurred daily in Metro Manila in 2019. A total of 31,729 accidents were reported while 221 individuals died.”

So, a duopoly, Angkas and Joyride, has legal entity to continue motorcycle taxi operation even without legislation. Whether the duopoly provides insurance for the passengers in case of serious accidents is not clear.


On Dec. 10, the MCT TWG permanently terminated the Grab-Move It collaboration. It recognized that the partnership had generated jobs and served the public, but decided to stop the partnership because they had already anointed a duopoly. Move It seems to be a small third player and still training and recruiting drivers.

The TWG has ruled that the fourth player, and perhaps other future players, can come in only if the bill legalizing motorcycle taxis has become a law.

There are bad implications in this decision by the TWG.

One, they have anointed a duopoly — they allowed only Joyride and Angkas to continue operating without legislation while waiting for the final legislation.

Two, they have deprived thousands of aspiring motorcycle taxi drivers from other players the right to earn an income. As Mr. Recto said, these drivers do not aspire for even a single centavo of subsidy from taxpayers, they just want to work, legally.

Three, they have deprived thousands of passengers, people who need the speed and low fares of motorcycle taxis and who are scared or unable to drive a motorcycle even if they can afford to buy one.

Four, it creates a moral hazard problem in Congress and lobbyists for the duopoly. If Congress fails to enact the bill into a law before the elections of 2022 or after, the duopoly is protected and granted the continued privilege to operate.


To avoid the four pitfalls mentioned above, the TWG should allow more players to come in while waiting for legislation. Give justice to the aspiring drivers and passengers needing more choices. Whatever safety regulations are required of the duopoly should apply to the new players. Enough of bureaucratic restrictions and prohibitions.

Congress should also hasten the legislation allowing motorcycle taxis and invite as many players to join as possible. More competition and more choices are always in favor of the passengers.

See also:
BWorld 516, Economic forum and COVID summit, December 14, 2021
BWorld 517, Economic forum and COVID summit (part 2), December 15, 2021
BWorld 518, Kill coal is kill growth agenda, December 18, 2021.

Saturday, December 18, 2021

Pol Ideology 82, Reflections of a former Marxist on property

I just rediscovered this, my presentation in one FNF PH event 12 years ago, September 2009,
Shrinking the slides and reposting here.


See also:
Pilipinas Forum 3: Is Marxism Still Relevant? August 30, 2011
Weekend Fun 36: The Karl Marx Mastercard, July 6, 2012

Pol Ideology 80, Capitalism reset, liberal democracy, September 10, 2021
Pol Ideology 81, Human rights and dangers of turning socialist, October 28, 2021.

Energy 157, Blackout-friendly RE, Europe experience and lessons for the PH

This is my presentation in an energy forum by Stratbase last month.


BWorld 518, Kill coal is kill growth agenda

* My article in BusinessWorld, December 6, 2021.

When the “phase out” of coal power became “phase down” at the recent United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26), the climate alarmism movement took it as the defeat of their “last chance to save the planet” narrative. Their next move was to target individual countries.


In the Philippines, House Resolution No. 2361 was introduced on Nov. 16 by Pampanga Rep. Juan Miguel “Mikey” M. Macapagal Arroyo hastening the “Philippines’ transition to 50% renewable energy [RE] sources by 2030.” The existing target under the National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) 2020–2040 is 35% RE in the power generation mix by 2030 and 50% by 2040. So Mr. Arroyo and the kill-coal lobbyists want to hasten the transition by 10 years.

This and related proposals like the Asian Development Bank’s acquire-retire-coal scheme to be replaced by RE, especially intermittent solar and wind, are impractical and based on emotion, not reason. Below are four quantitative reasons why.


One, coal provided up to 57% of total power generation in the country as of 2020, solar + wind provided only 2.4%. In the first 10 months of 2021 in the Luzon-Visayas grids, coal provided 55% while solar + wind generated only 2.9% share. If we persist in having more intermittent unstable and weather-dependent energy, we will have daily Earth Hours soon.

Two, generation capacities of other indigenous energy are limited. From 2010 to 2020, natural gas generation was flat at 19,500 gigawatt-hours (GWH); geothermal, flat at 10,000 GWH; and hydro, flat at 7,000+ GWH. The main reason the Blackout Economics agenda of the RE lobby did not happen is because coal generation has expanded big time, from 23,300 GWH in 2010 to 58,200 GWH in 2020 (see table 1).


In the next table below, I computed the decadal averages of energy consumption in Petajoules (1 PJ = 277.78 GWH) and GDP growth of selected countries.

Three, countries that expanded their coal consumption and did not significantly raise their solar + wind share have fast or high GDP growth. Examples are China, India, S. Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines. Japan is the exception for some reason/s.

Four, countries that shrank their coal consumption and significantly raised their solar + wind share have slow and anemic GDP growth. Examples are the US, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain, France, and the Netherlands. Exceptions in Europe and have relatively fast growth are Kazakhstan and Turkey, they expanded their coal use instead. Russia and Poland have shrunk their coal use but they did not significantly increase their solar + wind share, they experienced modest growth (see table 2).

Of course, there are other factors that contribute to fast or slow growth of countries but for this paper, we want to see if the desire of the RE lobby will be useful or not for developing countries like the Philippines. The above numbers show that the answer is no. The RE lobby is useless in pushing the Philippines and other developing countries in their desire to have sustained growth and uplift millions of their people from poverty.


My Nov. 15 column discussed the high power prices in Negros provinces after the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) Negros-Cebu submarine cable was damaged this June by Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) dredging and re-channeling activities in Amlan, Negros Oriental. Transmission was cut by half to only 90 MW and market prices in the alternative transmission Negros-Panay shot up to P7.70/kwh in the July billing; P7.55/kwh in August; down to P3.42/kwh in September, when the submarine cable was fixed.

Both NGCP and DPWH assumed zero liability for the higher cost of electricity for two months in Negros Occidental and Oriental. All congestion costs were passed on to consumers and generation companies (gencos). The DPWH or its contractor should have liability insurance to handle these cases but the NGCP went chummy friendly with DPWH. And the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) did not penalize NGCP for not going after DPWH and its contractor. ERC went chummy with NGCP. Shame.


Updated data show that the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001 or RA 9136 is working for the consumers via more competition, more choices. The registered electricity players in the Luzon-Visayas grids alone as of Nov. 26, data from IEMOP:

The Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) now has 281 members: 143 gencos, 71 electric cooperatives (ECs), 47 directly connected customers, and 20 private distribution utilities (DUs) and local government utilities.

The Retail Competition and Open Access (RCOA) program has 1,970 participants: 1,834 contestable customers, 59 retail metering service providers, 37 national retail electricity suppliers (RES), 25 suppliers of last resort (SOLR), 15 local RES.

Medium to large customers can choose whether to stay with their ECs or DUs, or become contestable customers and choose their own RES with customized power supply, services and pricing.


Instead of pushing for mandatory transition to RE by restricting and later killing coal plants, RE advocates and lobbyists can walk the talk by joining the Green Energy Option Program (GEOP) under the Renewable Energy Act of 2008. Consumers enter into supply contracts with RE suppliers (i.e., only RE will be supplied, no fossil fuels) which are registered with the Central Registration Body (CRB). The CRB processes the GEOP switch request by the consumers and RE gencos will supply the needs of the customers.

Registration of RE suppliers started on Dec. 3 and the switch to GEOP will start by Jan. 3, 2022. More GEOP customers and participants, more RE will be supplied, less demand for fossil fuels. People walk their talk, no need for legislated RE mandates and political noise and drama.

See also:
BWorld 515, Blackout economics, COP26 and Negros’ power prices, November 24, 2021.
BWorld 516, Economic forum and COVID summit, December 14, 2021
BWorld 517, Economic forum and COVID summit (part 2), December 15, 2021.