The Presidential and local elections in the Philippines are just 10 1/2 months away. Generally it will be a battle between which side of Big Government advocates will prevail. Nonetheless, we can delineate or distinguish them which side will advance Big Government + Big Private Monopolies and Oligopolies, vs. Big Government + Competitive Economy.
I think the old and traditional politicians like VP Binay belong to the former while newbies like Sen. Grace Poe may belong to the later, am not sure.
What about good governance? For me, Big Government = bad governance There is little or no justification why bureaucracies, regulations, permits, taxes, fees, fines, mandatory contributions, etc. should be as many as possible.
In the absence of a political party in this country that advocates limited and small government, free marketers like me can only compromise with candidates or political parties that somehow advocate more economic freedom and less monopolies, oligopolies, which are always created by government via Constitutional restrictions and franchising system.
This article by my former Prof. in a Political Science subject in UP Diliman in the 80s, Dr. Segundo "Doy" Romero, is another sharp analysis and can help guide voters who among the different political parties and factions can advance more economic freedom and who can oppose it. Sir Doy posted this in his fb wall, reposting with his permission.
The Battle for "Middle Earth" Begins
The resignation of Jejomar Binay from the Cabinet of
President Aquino is a declaration of war. Now the campaign for the Presidency
in 2016 is unofficially open. The battle lines are drawn. Consolidation of
The Binay declaration of war is timed to prevent other
opposition contenders from prematurely declaring and committing themselves to
the fight for the Presidency. If they do, it will take time and a lot of
resources before they and their core supporters can be cajoled to give up their
presidential ambitions and agree to put themselves behind Binay. That would
waste at least six months of preparation for and conduct of war.
Now that Binay is the default leading opposition
contender, he can now begin to consolidate the fragmented opposition. He is
hopeful despite the polls showing he is steadily losing the people's favor, for
he finds himself in fertile opposition ground. PNoy has so changed the
political landscape that he has created powerful enemies among the traditional
elite and political families. These families, while themselves competitors and
rivals for slices of political and economic power, are willing to set that
aside at this time, just to bring back the old rules of the game of politics
where they perform exceedingly well..
Jejomar Binay is the man for this nostalgic return to the
status quo ante, the return to the good old days. There is no doubt He is open
to negotiation. He is an astute cobbler of win-win situations with political
factions and other parochial tribes. So, he will be busy building the forces of
the future Binay empire, selling shares of stock to the following, who must now
be eagerly waiting to make deals with him:
Class A: The Core Ex-Presidential families
1. The Macapagal-Arroyo family and loyalists
2. The Estrada family and loyalists
3. The Marcos family and loyalists
Class B: The "Penumbra" Dynasties, such as
4. The Enrile family and loyalists
5. The Bong Revilla family and loyalists
Class C: The Issue advocates, such as
6. The "progressive" groups who have been calling
on PNoy to resign
7. The various opponents of the Tuwid na Daan in the
8. The various opponents of the Tuwid na Daan in the
private business sector
9. The passionate advocates or opponents of very specific
policies (FOI, BBL, CCT, K-12) who are disaffected
Class D: The Spurned Supporters
10. The various enthusiasts of the Tuwid na Daan who have
been variously slighted, rejected, abandoned, and now decry what they claim to
be the Baluktot na Daan
At this early point, there is also a big chunk of the
electorate who are unattentive, just observers or hecklers of the passing
political scene, who are yet uncommitted, perhaps as much as 60 percent of the
electorate. The polls show they are the voters who are lower in socio-economic
status and farther from Manila. They are in the middle between the Binay camp
and the Poe camp. They are the Middle Earth.
This is a source of hope for Binay. The Binay touch had
shown wonders here in the 2010 elections, using local government officials and
leaders to transact electoral support the way cobradors of jueteng fan out to
Binay's assets are frozen and, under the watchful eye of
the public, cannot be renewed or augmented through public coffers as in the
past. He needs the subscription of various investors and stakeholders to his
His promises will be weighty, because Grace Poe, will not
be willing to enter into these sweetheart deals, using the Presidential
prerogatives as a futures commodity to be traded.
The reason Grace Poe has edged Binay from the
presidential preference polls is that she has served as the consolidation point
for all those who advocate for continued good governance and rejection of
The Binay declaration of war simply creates a parallel,
symmetric consolidation around two opposite poles -- the experienced but
tainted, the inexperienced but principled.
For the first time since the Ferdinand Marcos-Cory Aquino
face-off in 1986, we will have another face-off between just two major opponents
-- Binay and Grace Poe. .Any other candidate will serve to be a muddler --
serving only to draw votes from any of these two primary contending forces. Mar
Roxas and Duterte are in this category.
SWS and Pulse Asia, working independently but validating
each other's reading of the people's political pulse, will ensure that no
politicians will be blinded with illusory hopes of personal grandeur.
With social media as the new powerful channel of
information between candidate and voter, the 2016 elections will be the
neatest, sharpest reflection of the people's will in a long, long, time.
It will tell us whether the Filipino people essentially
judge on the basis of the "aliwalas ng mukha" factor, or the
"lalim ng bulsa" factor.
For the first time since Cory Aquino, the Philippines is
poised to have a majority president in 2016. The question is, Binay or Poe? I
already have my answer, and it makes me smile.