The Presidential and national + local elections in the Philippines are just 11 months away. I am reposting below a commentary, a good analysis, from a political scientist who does real political science analysis and shares his frank ideas in facebook and social media, Dr. Segundo "Doy" Romero. He was my former teacher in Pol. Science 14 (PH politics and government) in UP Diliman, sometime in 1983 or 84.
Copy-pasting with zero alteration, from his raw and informal posting in his fb wall the other day. The photos I got from the web and adding them here.
1. On VP Jojo Binay:
BINAY FOR PRESIDENT! Part of the wisdom of the Filipino people is their ability to gravitate towards personalities that have that quality they need in a leader during specific periods in the nation's life. Charisma brings magic to the way a presidential candidate and the people find themselves invigorating each other. Even now, people remember fondly Ramon Magsaysay, Corazon Aquino, and the would-be presidents who never were -- Ninoy Aquino, Fernando Poe, and Jesse Robredo. When there is no charisma, when there is a nagging suspicion of pandaraya o pagnanakaw, It takes a lot of money to buy the people's favor when it is not there. That Manny Villar found out in 2010. I hope Jejomar Binay gets the chance to find out for himself in 2016, so that he will have a way of giving back to the people what his family has creatively appropriated for themselves, in the thought that like in war, elections are a matter of preparing a large enough war chest. Let us not dissuade Binay from running from President in 2016. Our people would know how to put him in his right place.
2. On Sec. Mar Roxas:
THE GREATEST DISSERVICE OF THE LIBERAL PARTY TO THE FILIPINO PEOPLE ... is in continuing to half-heartedly promote the candidacy of Mar Roxas in the 2016 presidential elections. Most people know Mar has no eye-contact with the Filipino people, and just like in basketball, he has stayed too long under the basket without the ball and needs to free the space for new players. The Liberal Party over the last five years has not really looked for an alternative to present to and excite the people, a grossly over-confident, even negligent course of action for a party in power.
3. On Sen. Grace Poe:
The Liberal Party should now put itself squarely behind Grace Poe as candidate for President. In signing the Senate Committee report that recommended Binay to be investigated by the Ombudsman for corruption, Poe has shown she is of sterner stuff than many imagined. She would be my candidate any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.
But Grace Poe should be a candidate of more than the Liberal Party -- she should remain independent going into the elections, as the Liberal Party has unnecessarily alienated many voters and absorbed many poisonous creatures, even as President Aquino's administration over the last five years has had high approval from the people.
What the Liberal Party can constructively do is to help build the organizational and managerial scaffoldings of a Poe presidency, so that she hits the ground running in July 2016. She must have a strong cabinet, a coherent strategy and vision, workable relationships with Congress, the courts, and the Constitutional Commissions, a good public information system, shared command of local governance with LCEs, and must be able to spot and avoid hiccups like the Luneta hostage-taking crisis that rattled the Aquino Presidency early on.
Because she knows it is necessary, Grace Poe is a fast and willing learner. She must be given the systematic briefings and experiential involvement she needs to be presidential in mind and performance. The heart, I think, is already there, as oftentimes it is the main asset "inexperienced" politicians bring into politics. Heart and morality are the first things that politicians lose in trying to gain experience against low-life personalities that chose public service as their career.
4. On Mar Roxas-Grace Poe tandem:
If that is the best combination we offer the Filipino electorate in 2016, then the next Philippine President for 2016-2022 might either be Erap or Binay, with Poe as Vice-President. Let us remember that Erap was second only to PNoy in the 2010 Presidential elections and Binay won over Mar Roxas as Vice-President. Only Poe will clearly beat Erap or Binay for the Presidency. Fielding Mar Roxas as President will not only lose the Presidency to somebody else, but will also mean another minority President, as his candidacy will encourage so many others like Ping Lacson, Rodrigo Duterte, Miriam Santiago, apart from Erap and Binay, who would think they have a reasonable chance of beating Roxas for the Presidency. Roxas would also consolidate all the anti-PNoy forces and sentiments against him. On the other hand, a Poe candidacy will ride on the combined endorsement of Pnoy and Erap, apart from the silent endorsement of FPJ, the loud support of all the weighty movie stars in the Philippine firmament, and a natural gaan ng loob of the masses towards Grace Poe. By the way, an Erap-Poe result in 2016 might not be too bad if Erap again "resigns" in mid-term and allows another woman to serve out his remaining term, and run for and win her own term until 2028. An interesting version of Tadhana for us.
Election 7: My Candidates for Senators, May 12, 2013
Election 8: Growth, Debt and the 2013 Polls, May 30, 2013
Election 9: India's Political Dynasties vs. Democracy, April 21, 2014
Election 10: Comelec Critics and Commissioner Luie Guia, December 26, 2015