There was a report in interaksyon.com last April 6, 2015 on
P15.5-billion
coal-fired power plant in northern Negros proposed. For me, it is good news
for the two Negros provinces and the Visayas grid. When that 150 MW coal plant starts operating a
few years from now, it should help expand electricity supply for Negros
Occidental and Negros Oriental provinces which currently are dependent on an
old geothermal plant in southern Negros and coal plants from Cebu.
In the May 2010 population census nationwide, Negros
Occidental including Bacolod City has 2.9 million people while Negros Oriental including
Dumaguete City has 1.3 million, or a total of 4.2 million people for Negros
island. The average annual population
growth rate of the two provinces from 2000-2010 are 2.1 percent for western or Occidental
Negros and around 1.3 percent for
eastern Negros.
Assuming a similar population growth rate for 2010-2015,
this means that this May 2015, the Occidental and Oriental provinces will have
a projected population of 3.34 and 1.39 million respectively, or a total of
4.73 million, a big number of people.
Currently, the people in the two provinces experience occasional
power fluctuations with isolated "Earth Hours". Bacolod alone is
expanding fast with lots of big malls, commercial centers and big subdivisions.
The Silay-Bacolod airport may soon become an international airport. Its
electricity need will be huge with those many big bright lights to guide
airplanes landing and taking off at nights, serve the passenger terminal which
must expand too.
There are three renewable plants in Negros island. First,
the Palinpinon geothermal plant in Valencia, Negros Oriental. It was
commissioned in 1984 or 31 years ago, has an installed capacity of 192 MW. Old
plants tend to suffer from frequent breakdown and low capacity factor. Energy
Development Corp. (EDC) which bought Palinpinon from Napocor also commissioned
a new, 49 MW geothermal plant in September 2014.
Second, there is a new solar power plant in San Carlos
City, Negros Occidental, 22 MW and was commissioned only in May 2014. But solar
plants have low average capacity factor (actual power generation over installed
capacity), only around 20 percent. At night, output is zero and on cloudy days,
output is small. Thus, on average, that solar plant can produce electricity by
4-5 MW only.
Third, there is a bioethanol power plant also in San
Carlos City. But it is opposed by so many people because of the foul smell,
reaching several kilometers away. The plant is using sugarcane bagasse. Even
many priests who are pro-renewables oppose it.
In short, the two provinces are deficient in power. They
need some for big, base-load (can run 24/7 non-stop) power plants. They
currently buy power from coal plants in Cebu so that they will not have daily
brown outs.
Figure 1. Visayas
grid power supply by fuel source and by island, March 2014.
There is huge supply of geothermal power in the Visayas.
In particular, 723 MW in Leyte and 192 MW in
Negros (Palinpinon), total of 915 MW. Some of the geothermal output of
Leyte are sold to energy consumers in Bicol and southern Luzon.
Biomass including bioethanol have installed capacity of
44 MW while hydro provide another 11 MW.
Cebu, the industrial and commercial hub of the Visayas regions,
is powered largely by coal and diesel power plants. Without these “non-renewable”
energy sources, it is not possible for this central Visayas island and
commercial center to sustain its business dynamism.
Figure 2. Visayas
grid coal and oil-based power plants as of 2013.
Source: DOE
While many people in Cadiz City, Negros Occidental, the
future site of this 150 MW and first coal power plant in the island, are happy
with this new development, some sectors are not happy with this news. Their
main concern is danger to public health because of coal soot pollution plus threats
of “man-made” climate change.
Public health is a valid concern but very often, the fear
of fictional monster of coal pollution is much larger than any real pollution.
The anti-coal activists and campaigners, often influenced or hoodwinked by
Greenpeace activists, are saying that communities that are close to the coal
power plant are in danger of massive sickness if not deaths.
If there fear and worries are correct, then there should
have been tens of thousands of massive sickness in the municipalities of Naga
and Toledo in Cebu, the host of the four coal
power plants with a combined installed capacity of 642 MW or more than
4x the projected coal power plant in Cadiz City.
In addition, there should have been hundreds of thousands
more of sick and dying people in Luzon
who live close to coal power plants. Like western Pangasinan with 1,294 MW; eastern Quezon (Pagbilao and Mauban) with
1,275 MW; northern Bataan with 652 MW; northern Zambales with 630 MW; eastern Batangas
with 600 MW, etc. These five provinces plus Pampanga and Bulacan that host
smaller coal plants have a combined
installed capacity of 4,531 MW of coal power, or more than 30x the proposed
coal plant in northern Negros.
Figure 3. Coal
power plants in Luzon, 2013.
Source is DOE.
What can cause more harm and danger to people’s lives are
the following: (1) frequent fires due to frequent use of candles or “gasera” when
electricity is often absent; (2) frequent road accidents and crimes when
streets are dark at night because electricity supply is unstable and the price
is high; (3) various respiratory diseases because air-con or electric fans are
often out due to insufficient
electricity supply, and (4) poverty and joblessness because manufacturing,
industrial and commercial centers are few, because there is unstable and expensive electricity.
As the Visayas provinces and the Philippine economy in
general grow faster, the need for more stable and cheaper energy sources also
rise. Coal and natural gas can provide such energy need. The renewables like
solar and wind can help but they are
intermittent and unstable power sources. When the wind does not blow, when it
is night time, their energy output is zero. They are also expensive, they
require mandatory feed-in-tariff (FIT) and other subsidies, which means higher
electricity bill for the consumers, to make them appear “viable” and
"affordable".
People should recognize the value of cheap and stable
electricity supply. Emotionalism and exaggerated fear of coal pollution can
cause unnecessary opposition to cheap and stable electricity.
See also:
Energy 32: Is the PH Power Supply Ready for the AEC?, January 17, 2015
Energy 33: Renewables Cronyism, Germany and UK Cases, January 26, 2015
Energy 34: Feed in Tariff Implementation in the Philippines, March 14, 2015
Energy 35: Coal Power Plant in Cadiz City, Negros Occidental, April 14, 2015
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