Tuesday, April 19, 2022

BWorld 537, Duterte’s Philippine Economic Debriefing

* My article in BusinessWorld last April 11. 
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Last week, on April 5, I attended the Philippine Economic Briefing (PEB) at the PICC, a sort of valedictory address by the Duterte administration led by Secretary of Finance Carlos G. Dominguez. The Opening Remarks were given by Executive Secretary Salvador C. Medialdea, then the main report, “The Ship of State Has Been Masterfully Steered,” delivered by Mr. Dominguez, followed by “Monetary, External, and Financial Sector Updates” by Governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Benjamin E. Diokno.

It was followed by a press conference with seven officials in the panel: Mr. Dominguez, Mr. Diokno, Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon M. Lopez, Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar, Tourism Secretary Bernadette T. Romulo-Puyat, NEDA (National Economic and Development Authority) Undersecretary Rose Edillon, and Transportation Undersecretary Giovanni Z. Lopez.

Mr. Dominguez emphasized in his report that the “Duterte presidency made the turn towards more inclusive growth and prosperity…. Our 2020 GDP would have plunged deeper by 13.3% instead of 9.6%… The Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Law is a crowning achievement of this administration.”

I titled this piece as economic “debriefing” because the comparative regional macroeconomic data do not seem to conform with these claims for the Philippines. And here are some numbers covering the 12 major economies of East and South Asia. Data sources are the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database from October 2021 and the ADB Asian Development Outlook (ADO) from April 2022.

One, in average GDP growth from 2011-2016 to 2017-2021, the Philippines had the biggest decline of 3.1 percentage point along with India. The Philippines’ average growth of 3.1% in the last five years was high compared to those of Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong, and Japan, true. But the Philippines came from an average growth of 6.2% under the previous administration, so the percent point decline was starkly huge.

Two, the Philippines is the only economy that experienced a rising inflation rate over the same period, an increase of 0.7% percentage point, while the 11 other economies had zero or declining prices. Our average inflation rate from 2011-2017 of 3.4% was the second highest after India, while our five ASEAN neighbors had only 0.6% to 2.7%.

Three, the Philippines experienced the highest inflation rate of 5.2% among these economies in 2018 — the first year of implementation of the TRAIN law. The next highest inflation was Vietnam’s at 3.5% and lowest was Singapore’s at 0.4% that year. The oil tax hikes Part 1 — diesel from zero to P2.50/liter, gasoline from P4.35/liter to P6.50/liter, etc. — implemented that year triggered a series of commodity price increases, from food to wages and rentals. The diesel tax became P6/liter, gasoline P10/liter, etc. in 2020.

Four, inflation started to creep upwards in March this year to 4% due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the US-led economic sanctions against Russia that has dragged perhaps the whole world economy into an inflationary spiral (see Table 1). Hence, the clamor by some sectors to suspend or reverse the oil tax hikes of the TRAIN law to help reduce prices in the Philippines.

Five, from 2019 to 2021 the Philippines had the second-highest increase of 5.2% in its budget deficit/GDP ratio after Thailand.  The Finance department, Congress, and many sectors of the country were swayed by Keynesian economic thinking — when household and private spending and investment declines, government spending should expand fast to “stimulate” overall demand — a questionable if not unrealistic philosophy in the current world.

Six, the expected “stimulated” rise in demand with high deficit spending did not happen as shown by -9.6% GDP contraction of the Philippines in 2020, the worst since post-WW2. In contrast, Vietnam and Taiwan did not significantly expand their deficit spending and they managed to have GDP growth of 2.9% and 3.4% respectively. This is a slap in the face of Keynesian economics in the last two years.

Seven, in external debt outstanding, the Philippines had the second largest increase of 27% from 2019 to 2021, next to South Korea’s 34% (see Table 2).

On the positive side, the Duterte administration should be recognized and credited for some good moves and fiscal reforms. Among these is the new Ease of Doing Business Act, principally initiated by the Department of Trade and Industry under Secretary Ramon Lopez. We need more businesses and job creators, not more bureaucracies.

The BSP under Mr. Diokno has consistently managed our external account. There was a buildup of our gross international reserves (GIR), from $79.2 billion in 2018 to $110.1 billion in 2020 and $108.8 billion in 2021. This was equivalent to about 10 months of imports cover and so we are shielded from any energy imports supply shock because of this huge GIR level. Also, there was the BSP’s Digital Payments Transformation Roadmap that strengthened the digital payment ecosystem.

I saw at the event the new President of Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), George Barcelon. Since they are the biggest business organization in the country, I asked him his assessment of the PEB. His response:

“Build, Build, Build initiatives were successful in roads, railways, airports and sea ports all over the country. On tax reforms, TRAIN, CREATE (Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises Act), the Public Service Act, the Foreign Investment Act, and the Retail Trade liberalization Act, etc. will transform our nation’s ability to attract Foreign Investments and fiscal support for health and education. The private sector was disappointed in the handling of COVID-19 during the initial stages wherein strict quarantine was imposed without stakeholders’ involvement in the decision-making process. But credit goes to the cooperation and discipline of business owners and the general populace. The minor glitches are gaps that can be addressed. The new administration can leverage on the present administration’s ground work.”

If I have to grade the Duterte administration’s overall economic performance in the last six years from 1.0 to 5.0 with 1 as excellent and 5 as failure, just looking at internal figures I will give it a 2.5. But considering the comparative performance of our neighbors in the region, I will give it a 3-3.5: 2.0 in 2017-2019 and 4.5 in 2020-2021 because of its strict prolonged lockdown and mobility restrictions, and implicit mandatory vaccination policy.

Hoping that the next administration will not follow the pitfalls of this government. And to secure change in economic policies in the next six years, the Duterte-allied Bongbong Marcos — Sara Duterte tandem should not win.
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See also:
BWorld 534, A campaign of disinformation, April 04, 2022
BWorld 535, The effects of Biden and sanctions on energy and commodity prices, April 12, 2022
BWorld 536, Electoral campaigns, vaccination and causes of deaths, April 13, 2022.

Macroecon 16, US inflation classmates in March 2022

Here are the new inflation "classmates" of the US last month. Many Asians are able to reign in prices, good. Many Europeans have high month-on-month (MoM) increases of 2+ percent point, like Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Germany.


Now we often hear US President Biden and his Democrat partymates, along with their big media allies using "Putin price hikes" to imply the Russia invasion of Ukraine last February caused all the price hikes. They are lying. Dishonest deceptive politicians. US and many European inflation started rising when Biden came to power. Only 1.4% in January when Trump left the White House, became 7.5% in January 2022 or 12 months Biden in office, no Russia invasion.


Liar Biden and Democrats do not want to admit that their policies -- anti fossil fuel development and investment to "save the planet", large-scale money distribution while preventing people to be productive via continued lockdown, etc. -- caused all the price hikes and instability.
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See also:
Macroecon 13, More economic damages of strict indefinite lockdown, September 17, 2021
Macroecon 14, Macro indicators, inflation rates in selected countries, September 23, 2021
Macroecon 15, US trade, inflation, public debt, November 12, 2021.

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

BWorld 536, Electoral campaigns, vaccination and causes of deaths

* My column in BusinessWorld last April 4.
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The general elections from President down to City and Municipal Councilors on May 9 are just five weeks or 35 days away. I checked some of the electoral campaigns of the leading presidential and vice-presidential candidates, the Bongbong Marcos (BBM)-Sara Duterte tandem, and the Leni Robredo-Kiko Pangilinan pair.

ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN CROWD

The Leni-Kiko tandem has attracted these record number crowds at campaign rallies as of April 1 (source: https://web.facebook.com/TeamLeniKiko/photos):

1. Pasig (March 20), 130,000+;

2. Bacolod, Negros Occidental (March 11), 86,000+;

3. Tagbilaran, Bohol (April 1), 80,000+;

4. Catarman, Northern Samar (March 28), 73,000+;

5. Borongan, Eastern Samar (March 29), 54,000+;

6. Tarlac (March 23), Camanava (March 26), Cabanatuan, Nueva Ecija (March 22), 50,000+ each;

7. Gen. Trias, Cavite (March 4), 47,000+;

8. Malolos, Bulacan (March 5) and Isabela, Basilan (March 16), 45,000+ each;

9. Iloilo City (Feb. 25), 40,000+; and,

10. Zamboanga (March 17), 35,000+.

The BBM-Sara tandem rallies also have huge crowds but they did not put crowd estimates. But from the photos shown (source: https://web.facebook.com/BongbongMarcos/photos), they seem to have larger crowds than the Leni-Kiko rallies, and they do it almost daily. Their Mindanao swing on March 27 to April 2 — from GenSan to Zamboanga, Sultan Kudarat, Davao del Norte and Sur, Lanao, and Bukidnon — showed crowds of the tens of thousands per event, morning till evening.

The Manny Pacquiao and Isko Moreno campaigns also have some big crowds but they are not held as often and are not as thick as the Leni and BBM crowds.

NO SURGE IN COVID CASES

Since the official campaign period for national office started on Feb. 8 or eight weeks ago, the political rallies have attracted tens of thousands of people per event, shoulder to shoulder, with no distancing for many hours, no temperature checks, no vax card checks. And yet there was not a single incidence of a COVID surge whether in any big city venues or nationwide — none. But we read the usual alarmist pronouncements by government virus “experts” of more infections. See for instance the Department of Health (DoH) warning which was contradicted by data in these two reports in BusinessWorld: “Ignoring protocols could lead to rise in infections — DoH” (March 29), “PHL logs among lowest daily coronavirus cases in SE Asia” (March 30).

Theory (and narrative) must conform with data. Always. No exception. In the COVID pandemic, the theory or narrative is: more huge gatherings, no distancing for hours, no widespread vaccination, then more infections and cases. Consider also the infamous and fallacious OCTA terms “super-spreader” events that require “circuit breaker” lockdowns.

So, what happens if theory and data do not conform with each other? In real natural science, one must uphold and respect the data and junk the “theory” or narrative — it reverts back to an ordinary hypothesis. But in politics and political science, one must ignore the data and uphold the narrative. And that is why despite eight weeks straight of having huge numbers of people packed together for many hours with no distancing, many even wearing their masks below their mouths, we see no COVID surges. But government retains the soft lockdown and mobility restrictions and pushes mass vaccination. It is no longer about medical science but political science and military science.

GOOGLE TRENDS IN THE CAMPAIGN

There are no results of voter preference surveys conducted in March by SWS and Pulse Asia, the top polling firms in the country. In the absence of such data, proxy data must be used, like estimated crowds per political rally by the leading contenders, discussed above. Another proxy is Google Trends “interest over time.”

“Interest over time” numbers and scores represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. Peak popularity is 100, 50 means that the term is half as popular, and 0 means there is not enough data for this term. While political surveys use sample sizes of only 1,200 to 3,000 people, Google Trends processes billions of bits of data, millions daily.

So, I searched Leni and BBM and this is the result.

The Leni campaign is gaining more interest — from 40 in the first half of February when official campaigns started, to 46 in early March, and 67 in late March. The score reached 96 on March 20, during the huge rally in Pasig, and peaked at 100 on March 21, when photos of the huge crowd that night were more circulated and reported the next day.

The BBM campaign is losing interest — from 34 in the first half of February to only 28 in first half of March. It recovered to 40 in the second half of March but this was way below the 67 of Leni over the same period.

So, from two data sets — photos of campaign rallies and caravans, and Google Trends — BBM seems to retain his lead in the first but he is losing in the second set of data. Good. His chances of becoming President are less.

CAUSES OF DEATHS, PSA DATA

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the Causes of Deaths data for 2020 and 2021 last week on March 29. I searched their previous reports and included data for 2018 and 2019 below. Since there was no excess mortality or deaths in 2020 over 2019, I compared 2021 with 2019. The data show the following.

One, there was a huge increase in deaths in 2021 when more COVID infections happened and mass vaccination started — 145,700 more deaths than in 2019 and 152,200 more deaths than 2020.

Two, if COVID deaths — virus identified UO7.1 and unidentified UO7.2 — are excluded, there were still 39,000 more deaths in 2021 over 2019.

Three, there were more deaths from ischemic heart diseases, diabetes, hypertension, and cerebrovascular diseases in 2021 than in 2019. This coincided with more reports of myocarditis, blood clots and related diseases days or weeks after vaccination in 2021, even until 2022.

Four, there were fewer deaths from pneumonia, cancer or neoplasms, lower respiratory diseases, and tuberculosis in 2021. The hypothesis “deaths from regular pneumonia were counted as COVID deaths” may fit in this situation.

Five, continued lockdown and business closures (KTV and music bars, some hospitality shops, etc.) led to fewer deaths from assault/fights and transport accidents, but more deaths from malnutrition and suicides or intentional self-harm (see Table).

Since the narrative “more huge gatherings, no distancing for hours, more COVID infections” is proven to be false by the huge electoral rallies, government should drop all mobility restrictions and presentation of mandatory vax card or negative PCR tests for work and travel.

Three real economic risks facing the Philippines this year: 1.) continued high public debt that will require high taxes, from P8.22 trillion (actual and guaranteed) in 2019 to P10.25 trillion in 2020, and P12.15 trillion in 2021; 2.) high inflation, from 2.6% in 2020 to 4.5% in 2021, and projected to reach 5% or more in 2022 with very high energy and commodity prices; and, 3.) low GDP growth this year, from -9.6% in 2020 and 5.7% in 2021. Our people and businesses should be freed from various mobility restrictions to produce more goods and services, reduce inflation and expand economic output.

The two leading Presidential candidates, especially VP Leni who is catching up, should have clear policies to open up the economy wide and clear, and remove all existing and planned mobility restrictions on people and businesses.
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See also:
BWorld 533, After two years of lockdown, what have we achieved? April 03, 2022
BWorld 534, A campaign of disinformation, April 04, 2022
BWorld 535, The effects of Biden and sanctions on energy and commodity prices, April 12, 2022.

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Covid 73, More deaths, more marriages, but less babies in 2021, why?

Reposting this from https://cdcph.org/f/more-deaths-more-marriages-but-less-babies-in-2021-why.

More deaths, more marriages, but less babies in 2021, why?

Nonoy Oplas

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released today the most recent update on marriages, births and deaths per month, 2020 and 2021. Here is my reformat table:

Now compare 2021 vs 2020 monthly averages there were:

19,928/month more deaths (bad),
28,883/month more marriages (good), and
-18,257/month less births (bad).

Year 2021 has delta variants plus mass vaccination was started. More deaths, more marriages, but producing less babies. Why?

I see three possibilities: 

(1) more preggy women in 2021 who have miscarriages (after vax?),
(2) Married women who became less fertile (after vax?), and
(3) many mothers among those who died.

Those vaccines have no, zero, nada long-term studies about their possible impact on women fertility, and the vax are being pushed down to 5 yo kids.
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See also:
Covid 70, Doc Iggy Agbayani on pedia vaccination, February 23, 2022 
Covid 71, More vax adverse reactions, February 24, 2022 
Covid 72, More testimonies of vax injuries, April 03, 2022.

BWorld 535, The effects of Biden and sanctions on energy and commodity prices

* My article in BusinessWorld last March 28.
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US President Joe Biden has already been in the White House for 14 months, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US-led economic sanctions against it have just marked one month, and things are worsening. Here are 10 emerging trends, global and national.

BIDEN’S EFFECT ON FOSSIL FUEL PRICES AND SUPPLY

One: Biden and the US Democrat Party campaigned, among other issues, for a war on fossil fuels. And on Day 1 of his administration, Jan. 20, 2021, he announced a halt to oil-gas drilling in federal lands, and the killing of the Keystone XL pipeline that would bring some 800,000 barrels per day of Canada crude oil to the US. See these reports:

1. “In intimate moment, Biden vows to ‘end fossil fuel’,” AP News, Sept. 7, 2019 (“I guarantee you. We’re going to end fossil fuel.”)

2. “Keystone XL pipeline halted as Biden revokes permit,” AP News, Jan. 21, 2021

3. “Biden administration pauses federal drilling program in climate push,” Reuters, Jan. 22, 2021.

In Table 1, the reference points are last week’s trading day March 25; then the day before the invasion, Feb. 23; then the year ago or year-on-year from March 25, 2021; and Nov. 3, 2020, the US Presidential election day.

Two: World oil, coal and gas prices started rising after the Nov. 3, 2020 elections when it became apparent that Biden and his anti-fossil fuel policies would be implemented. WTI and Dubai oil jumped 68% and 64% from Nov. 3, 2020 to March 25, 2021. Coal jumped 56%, TTF gas and UK gas rose 38% and 21%, and EU carbon permits rose 65%.

Since a war on fossil fuel also means a war on internal combustion engines (ICE) that use gasoline or diesel, it signaled a rise in prices of metals largely used in electric car batteries like lithium and cobalt, which rose 118% and 58% over the same period.

Three: World prices of fossil fuels and uranium continued rising until pre-invasion day while the solar and wind index declined. The planet experienced a generally calm, less windy 2021 and the wind farms of many countries, especially Europe, produced little energy so they endured high gas-oil-coal prices to keep the lights on and avoid blackouts.

RUSSIA INVASION AND SANCTIONS EFFECT

Four: The invasion on Feb. 24 quickly pushed upwards the prices of many commodities, especially oil and gas because Russia is the number one source of these energy products for many countries in Europe. The percent changes in prices from Feb. 23 to March 25 were: 26% and 22% for WTI and Dubai crude, 37% for coal, and 34% for uranium. Nickel prices jumped 42% while wheat rose 24%, sending alarms calls of “food shortages” in many countries.

Five: The year-on-year (March 25, 2021 to March 25, 2022) percent change in prices were generally brutal for Europe gas at 425%, from €18.8/MWH to €98.7/MWH. The price of UK gas has risen 382%, US natgas 116%, coal 246%, uranium 107%. The price of lithium has risen 485% and nickel 117% (Table 1).

The main target of the US-led sanctions is Russia, to impoverish it quick, but the law of unintended consequences when things are politicized always kicks in and the rest of the world is adversely affected.

MORE FOSSIL FUELS MEAN CHEAPER ELECTRICITY

Six: Data until 2020-2021 show that when countries use more fossil fuels and nuclear for power generation, they have cheaper electricity prices. When they use more intermittent renewables like solar and wind, they have expensive electricity prices.

In Asia, Malaysia and Vietnam, renewables only have a 2-4% share to total generation and they have cheap electricity prices of only 7-8 US¢/kwh. The Philippines and Japan, with renewables having a 12-14% share, have electricity prices of 17-21US¢/kwh.

In Europe, Russia and Ukraine have the cheapest electricity prices of only 5-6US¢/kwh, their renewables’ share is only 0.3-6%, while their gas+coal+nuke power share is 79-88% of power generation. The UK and Germany have high power prices and their renewables’ share is 41% of total generation (Table 2).

Seven: Since the Philippines was already bullied by the environmental, social and governance (ESG) lobby to stop building new coal plants, it should consider turning to nuclear power, particularly small modular reactors, for islands like Palawan, Mindoro, Masbate, Bohol.

TOKYO AND METRO MANILA NEAR BLACKOUT

Eight: Tokyo nearly experienced a blackout on March 22. The temperature dropped and demand for electricity rose while some power plants were out. The Japan electricity network sent extra power to Tokyo. Japan has suffered from thin reserves for several years now as they retire many coal and nuclear plants while joining the ESG bandwagon of more intermittent power sources.

Japan introduced a feed-in tariff (FIT) program in 2012 to boost solar power. Many backup and reserve thermal power plants became more expensive to operate as intermittents were given priority in grid dispatch. And Japan’s power reserves become even thinner.

Nine: Metro Manila still experienced yellow-red alerts yearly even during the two years of COVID-19 lockdown (2020-2021), until this year. Last Saturday we experienced this: “Luzon grid placed on yellow alert after seven-plant outage” (BusinessWorld, March 27).

The Philippines implemented the FIT provision (guaranteed high price for 20 years) in 2012 and many solar-wind plants were built. Since they have priority dispatch in the grid, they also displace some reliable thermal plants. This is often praised as “merit order effect” that results in lower prices in the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM). This is fiction because the frequent displacement of dispatchable thermal plants in the grid means some or many of them will be gone soon, like what happened in Japan. And when some big plants go offline due to natural calamities or unscheduled shutdowns, reserves are thin and blackouts will be the result. The most expensive energy is one that is not there, absent, zero. Then people will use more candles and have more fires. Or use expensive gensets and diesel and create more air pollution.

THE NATIONAL MONOPOLY PROBLEM

Ten: Then there is the continuing problem that is the only remaining national monopoly in the country, the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP). In last Saturday’s yellow alerts, five power plants, with a combined capacity of 1,193 MW, had a “forced outage due to undisclosed reason” simultaneously at 6:17 p.m. It does not look like a generation problem but a transmission problem because they went out all at the same time, on the same day.

About late January this year, the NGCP announced that it will get more firm contracts for ancillary services (AS) to augment reserves. It was good news — thank you NGCP. The bad news is that nothing seems to have happened after that, and so we are back to having yellow-red alerts in the next two to three months.

We should have less politics in energy policy. There should be no favoritism in energy technology, and no priority dispatch. Companies should bid based on the lowest price at the most stable supply for the consumers. And no more monopoly please, especially in the nationwide transmission system.
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See also:
BWorld 532, The law of unintended consequences in the US-Russia economic war, March 26, 2022
BWorld 533, After two years of lockdown, what have we achieved? April 03, 2022
BWorld 534, A campaign of disinformation, April 04, 2022.

Pol. Ideology 83, The end of liberalism and return of militarist-protectionism?

This April until July, the FNF (Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom) IAF (International Academy for Leadership, Gummersbach, Germany) alumni will have a series of lectures about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. These are for alumni only, not open to the public. I went to IAF in Germany in October 2008, I attended the seminar on "Local Government and Civil Society", our great facilitators and lecturers were Arno Keller and Monika Bayern, great liberal minds of FNF.

Here are the lecture topics, then my short discussion about them.


If I have to answer briefly the above questions, here:

1. The end of history? No. History is about endless evolution of human societies and communities. Homo sapiens been around the planet for about 30,000 years or so, out of the planet's 4.6 billion years existence. I think modern homo sapiens will be around for the next thousands and millions of years.

2. The end of peace? No. After WW2 that ended in 1944, there were few invasions that happened, mostly done by the US (Vietnam in the 70s, Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003, regime change wars in Eastern Europe in 2010s, Libya in 2011, Syria in 2014,...), Russia invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, annexation of Crimea in 2014, etc. Beyond these, no global war happened. Generally global peace for 8 decades, until the Ukraine war last February. 

Recall also, when Gorbachev allowed the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, disintegration of USSR in 1990, abolition of Warsaw Pact military alliance in 1991, they happened generally peacefully. But NATO was not abolished, instead it kept expanding towards Russia border, promising more missiles and tanks near Russia.

3. The end of liberalism? No. Humanity by nature longs for freedom, peace, unrestricted mobility aided by technology. But we saw large-scale curtailment of this freedom since 2000 lockdowns because governments and multilaterals don't believe in natural immunity, only vax-vax-vax immunity with 3rd, 4th, endless boosters and money.

4. The end of democracy? No. If people are left on their own, they and their service providers (physicians, traders, etc) will provide competitive and useful information and services, like using proven, off-patent early treatment drugs. But global narrative is a different political animal. Demonize those proven early treatment drugs, use only unproven, EUA, no long-term studies of real safety vax.

5. The end of trade globalization? No. People want cheap energy from different sources and countries. But governments, especially the US and EU, have politicized trade via econ sanctions on Russia exports. When you politicize trade, you get more politics and less trade. So now energy prices are very high because only few countries can freely supply the world of oil, gas and coal while huge supply of these energy products from Russia are being shunned and demonized.

6. The end of reality? No. Take wars and invasion. These are good and justified, no heavy attacks by global media and multilaterals if the invader is the US (Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq,...). But war and invasion is bad and unjustified if the invader is Russia. Pure propaganda. Real non-propaganda is this -- war and invasion is wrong. Period. Whether the invader is Russia or America. Invasion is wrong.

Take these cover stories by The Statist, aka The Economist.


For this mouthpiece of military-industrial complex, wars and invasion are good, justfied. Invade and/or bomb the Afghans, Iraqis, Libyans, Syrians, Bosnians, Kosovars, etc., all justified so long as the bombers are Americans and British. But for The Statist, Russia invasion is bad evil wrong unjustified. Double talk by big media. Lousy. Anti-liberal.
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See also:
Pol Ideology 80, Capitalism reset, liberal democracy, September 10, 2021
Pol Ideology 81, Human rights and dangers of turning socialist, October 28, 2021
Pol Ideology 82, Reflections of a former Marxist on property, December 18, 2021
Germany elections, some scenarios, September 24, 2021.

Monday, April 04, 2022

BWorld 534, A campaign of disinformation

* My column in BusinessWorld last March 21. 
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A campaign of disinformation

Among the claims made in support of the Bongbong Marcos (BBM) and Sara Duterte tandem, candidates for President and Vice-President of UniTeam, is that the Philippines under former President Ferdinand Marcos was the “golden age” of peace and prosperity, and that the Philippines under the current administration of President Rodrigo Duterte is doing well. True or false?

False. And here are the facts and numbers.

One, the average annual GDP growth in the 1970s of the Philippines was only 5.8%. In contrast, our neighbors in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) had higher growth over the same period: Indonesia’s growth was 7.2%, Thailand was 7.5%, Malaysia was 8.2%, and Singapore was 9.2%.

Then from 1980-1985, the last six years of the Marcos administration, the Philippines’ average annual GDP growth was -0.1%, a contraction. In contrast, our ASEAN neighbors performed better. Even Vietnam which had emerged from a brutal civil war and US invasion in the 1970s, managed to grow at 3.8%.

Two, the fast growth during the Benigno Aquino III administration of 6.2% a year decelerated under Duterte in 2017-2019, capped by a huge contraction of -9.6% in 2020, the worst in Asia even though the same COVID-19 virus affected all countries. So, in percentage points change, the Philippines under Duterte administration has had the largest, or the worst reduction among the ASEAN-6 or the major economies of the region.

Three, the increase in the gross national income (GNI) per capita from 1970 to 1985 was lowest in the Philippines, only $300 over 15 years, while our neighbors had $420 and up.

Four, the increase in GDP per capita from 2016 to 2020 was lowest in the Philippines, again, at only $214 while that of our neighbors ranged from $316 to nearly $3,000 (see Table 1).

Five, when considering foreign direct investment (FDI) in 1980-1985, the Philippines had very low FDI net inflows of only $35 million/year while Indonesia attracted $227 M/year, Thailand got $264 M/year, and Malaysia and Singapore got more than $1 billion/year. Foreign investors and their local partners were uncertain or scared of the business environment under Marcos then.

Six, when considering FDI inward stock (inflows less outflows through the years), the Philippines got an increase of $39 billion from 2016 to 2020. While this is better than Indonesia’s -$9 billion, it was lower than the rest of the ASEAN-6 which got $52 billion and up.

Seven, looking at external debt stock, the Philippines’ foreign borrowings expanded quickly, from $2.2 billion in 1970 ($0.60 billion in 1966) to $27 billion in 1985. A lot of the big infrastructure projects during Marcos period — the CCP complex, NLEx, the good roads to Ilocos Norte, etc. — were funded not via domestic revenues but via heavy foreign borrowings.

Eight, external borrowings mellowed after Marcos was gone, increasing only $48.7 billion over 31 years (from $27 billion in 1985 to $74.7 billion in 2016). But Duterte restarted heavy borrowings in 2018-2019, and much bigger loans in 2020, with external debt reaching $98.5 billion that year (Table 2). More borrowings today mean higher taxes tomorrow.

Nine, the “golden age” of peace during the Marcos Martial Law period would likely refer to the peace of the dead. The average life expectancy of Filipinos in 1970 was 63.2 years, which marginally increased to 64.7 years in 1985, or an increase of only 1.5 years over a 15-year period. During that same period, Indonesians had an increase of 7.7 years, Thais 8.5 years, and Vietnamese 9.4 years.

This very low increase in life expectancy of Filipinos under Ferdinand Marcos may mean that either many people were poor and sickly and died young, or that many adults were murdered. Or perhaps fewer babies were born because many fathers disappeared or had been killed.

During the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia in the 1970s, life expectancy went from 41.6 years in 1970, down to 18.9 years in 1977. He murdered millions of his own people, affecting the overall life expectancy downwards. Ferdinand Marcos’s regime did not reach Pol Pot’s barbarity but his political and military path was trying to approximate it.

Under post-Marcos governments life expectancy rose quicker, hitting 66.4 years in 1990, a 1.7-year increase in five years.

And 10, considering crude death rate per 1,000 people, the Philippines under Marcos had one of the highest rates in the ASEAN with eight in 1970, declining marginally to 7.1 in 1985, or a decrease of only 0.9 deaths per 1,000 people over 15 years. In contrast, Thailand experienced a decrease of four, Vietnam of 4.6, Indonesia had a decrease of five, Cambodia 5.7. (Cambodia had a remarkable improvement after Pol Pot was toppled in 1978. Its life expectancy rose from 27.5 years in 1980 to 50.6 in 1985, and its crude death rate improved from 43.9 per 1,000 in 1980 to 14.2 per 1,000 in 1985)

Things improved only when the next administration came to power (Table 3).

Overall, the claims that the Philippines had a “golden age” of peace and prosperity during Ferdinand Marcos’ presidency, and that things have greatly improved under the Duterte administration, are false, dishonest, and deceptive.

The economy was bad, the average Filipinos were living less healthy lives compared to their many neighbors in the ASEAN. So many people died during the Martial Law years that life expectancy was generally flat and the crude death rates hardly declined.

There is a campaign to change people’s perception of the reality of the past and present by pushing myths of a “golden age.” That Bongbong Marcos and Sara Duterte refuse to participate in live debates suggests to many members of the public that it is because they cannot truthfully support the myths if confronted with them in these forums. The actuations, or the lack thereof, of the candidates in the face of untruths can be considered a foreshadowing of the future. Therefore, they and their other candidates should not win.
---------------

See also:
BWorld 531, Energy and economic impact of Russia-Ukraine war, March 25, 2022
BWorld 532, The law of unintended consequences in the US-Russia economic war, March 26, 2022
BWorld 533, After two years of lockdown, what have we achieved? April 03, 2022.

Sunday, April 03, 2022

Energy 163, Impact of sanctions on energy supply in Germany, rest of Europe

Germany, the home of Benz and BMW, Audi and Porsche, Bosch and Siemens, SAP and Adidas, soon will be into gas rationing. Also the biggest economy of Europe now tells its people to wear warmer jackets to endure cold weather instead of electric heating from big thermal and nuke plants.

These are some of the unintended effects of the US-led economic sanctions vs Russia. See various reports here, enjoy.
----------------

Blackouts in Germany in 2022? The risk from dependence on Russian energy
March 19, 2022
https://www.expaturm.com/featured/blackouts-in-germany-in-2022/

"Government warns companies of MEGA blackouts in Germany!

The Federal Network Agency in Germany is currently in talks with major industries on “crisis preparation” for “unavoidable shutdowns” in a gas supply crisis.

Being discussed is the high demand for energy within individual industries and which companies should be given preference in an emergency when it comes to gas supply."

Belgium postpones nuclear phase-out by 10 years
March 22, 2022
https://blackout-news.de/aktuelles/belgien-verschiebt-atomausstieg-um-10-jahre/

Like Germany, Belgium has also decided to phase out nuclear energy. The last of the seven nuclear power plants should go offline by the end of 2025. Due to the energy crisis, the government has now decided to let two of the reactors run 10 years longer than originally planned. The reason given is the drastically increased energy prices in connection with the Ukraine war. The act operator Engie was surprised by the government's short-term change of course and expressed concerns.

As Energy System Comes Apart, Germany Now Preparing Emergency Natural Gas Rationing Plans
By P Gosselin on 22. March 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/03/22/as-its-energy-system-comes-apart-germany-now-preparing-emergency-gas-rationing-plans/

In the event of a gas supply stop from Russia, the gas volume is reduced to deliveries from Norway and the Netherlands. However, the supplies from these countries would be difficult to transport through the gas network to the east and south of Germany. Therefore, industrial companies in these regions would probably be the first to get no more natural gas in the event of a bottleneck.

Coal again the most important energy source
March 23, 2022
https://blackout-news.de/aktuelles/kohle-wieder-wichtigster-energietraeger/

According to the latest data from the Federal Statistical Office, conventional power plants generated 57.6 percent of the electricity consumed in Germany in 2021 . That is a good 5 percent more than in the previous year. Conventional power plants include hard coal and lignite power plants, nuclear power plants and gas power plants. The share of renewable energies from wind, sun, water and biogas fell to 42.4 percent compared to 47.1 percent in 2020.

Putin Says “Hostile” States Should Pay In Rubles For Russian Natural Gas
By Charles Kennedy - Mar 23, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Putin-Says-Hostile-States-Should-Pay-In-Rubles-For-Russian-Natural-Gas.html

Since the west is generally successful in restricting their domestic oil gas production and relied on imports from Russia oil gas, they will be obliged. If they don't, this can happen...

As Energy System Comes Apart, Germany Now Preparing Emergency Natural Gas Rationing Plans
By P Gosselin on 22. March 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/03/22/as-its-energy-system-comes-apart-germany-now-preparing-emergency-gas-rationing-plans/


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-eus-energy-dependency/

Not enough electricity at Deutsche Bahn – freight trains have to stop
March 26, 2022
https://blackout-news.de/nicht-kategorisiert-de/nicht-genug-strom-bei-der-deutschen-bahn-gueterzuege-muessen-stehen-bleiben/

On the morning of March 23rd there was a massive power shortage in the Deutsche Bahn power grid . Because not enough electricity was available, Deutsche Bahn stopped a large part of the freight traffic on the rails in large parts of Germany. According to the traction current operator DB Energie, due to maintenance work in various power plants and an unforeseeable power plant failure, there was a massive undersupply in the Deutsche Bahn power grid.

Germany girds for gas rationing, Europe on edge in Russian standoff
By Joseph Nasr and Vera Eckert  March 30, 2022
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-declares-early-warning-potential-gas-supply-disruptions-2022-03-30/.

Government Minister Tells Germans to Cope With Soaring Energy Costs by Wearing Warmer Sweaters
29 March, 2022 Paul Joseph Watson
https://summit.news/2022/03/29/government-minister-tells-germans-to-cope-with-soaring-energy-costs-by-wearing-warmer-sweaters/

And for the rest of Europe, diesel rationing.

Rationing Looms As Diesel Crisis Goes Global
By Irina Slav - Mar 27, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rationing-Looms-As-Diesel-Crisis-Goes-Global.html

All these are necessary to "save the planet", yes?

And all caused by Putin, not self-inflicted wrong policies, yes?

And the US-led sanctions not to blame, only the invader from Kremlin, yes? 

More on impact of economic sanctions vs Russia, and Russia demand of being paid only in rubles for its energy exports. It seems Europe and Germany in particular is the main loser in the US-led sanctions. Europe has been listening too much to Al Gore, the UN, and that Swedish media-obsessed HS dropout that Europe under-invested in their own fossil fuel devt for decades and relied on energy imports from Russia.

Europe's energy crisis sends shockwaves through Germany's industrial heart
March 31, 2022
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europes-energy-crisis-sends-shockwaves-through-germanys-industrial-heart-2022-03-31/

"Moscow's invasion of Ukraine has highlighted Germany's heavy reliance on Russian gas - Russia accounted for 55% of Germany's gas imports in 2021.

Alternative supplies won't come cheap or fast. Berlin has warned it could take until mid-2024 until Germany can live without Russian gas."

Energy Crisis: A Solution Must Be Found! JF-TV with Michael Limburg
Axel Robert Göhring | Mar 31, 2022 
https://eike-klima-energie.eu/2022/03/31/energiekrise-es-muss-eine-loesung-her-jf-tv-mit-michael-limburg/

In an interview in JF issue 14/22, Trigema boss Wolfgang Grupp describes how the rising prices are affecting German companies. The price of natural gas has increased eightfold, according to Grupp, who can no longer rule out a standstill in production in Germany. And demands: "A solution has to be found!" In the current issue of JF-TV, energy expert Limburg explains how it came about in the first place, what errors, but also what ideologies are behind it and what such a solution could look like.

Without Russian energy sources, there is a risk of a 10-year recession
March 31, 2022
https://blackout-news.de/aktuelles/ohne-russische-energietraeger-drohen-10-jahre-rezession/

A  study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW)  shows the consequences of an embargo on Russian energy sources for the German economy. In Germany, without oil and gas from Russia, there will be a long-lasting recession . The decline in economic growth could extend over a period of more than ten years. This is associated with closures of companies and a significant increase in unemployment.

German industry: Gas rationing plan would cripple economy
https://www.dw.com/en/german-industry-gas-rationing-plan-would-cripple-economy/a-61302394

German Chemical Giant Warns Of "Total Collapse" If Russian Gas Supply Cut
APR 01, 2022 - 04:29 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/basf-ceo-warns-germany-total-collapse-if-russian-gas-supply-cut

"To put it bluntly: This could bring the German economy into its worst crisis since the end of the Second World War and destroy our prosperity. For many small and medium-sized companies in particular, it could mean the end. We can't risk that!...

"a catastrophe and we will feel it even more clearly next year than this one. Because most of the fertilizers that the farmers need this year have already been bought. In 2023 there will be a shortage, and then the poor countries in particular, for example in Africa, will no longer be able to afford to buy basic foodstuffs." In a very alarming statement and forewarning, he added: "There is a risk of famine."

German economy minister raises warning level for gas supplies
https://www.dw.com/en/german-economy-minister-raises-warning-level-for-gas-supplies/a-61300264

Germany Now Finds Itself In A Desperate Energy Situation. An Urgent Letter To The Federal Government
By P Gosselin on 1. April 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/04/01/germany-now-finds-itself-in-a-desperate-energy-situation-an-urgent-letter-to-the-federal-government/

Green Party leader and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck’s is waking up, his bows and entreaties in Qatar aren’t helping – the small country in the Persian Gulf is booked up and won’t be able to supply more liquid natural gas until 2025 at the earliest. It is bizarre to see his desperation to demand that the natural gas storage facilities be 90 percent full by the fall... 

16 of 19 nuclear power stations have been closed

The destructive work of the Greens and Socialists (including those actively assisting them in the CDU) has been thoroughly successful... the past weeks show it drastically: no wind – no electricity from the wind turbines. Anyone who relies on wind power and the green energy transition has been abandoned.

Meanwhile, this is a funny comment from UN Sec Gen. Antonio Guterres, a former leader of Portugal Socialist Party, and pre-lockdowns a frequent jet setter using lots of fossil fuels, lambasting fossil fuels, 

UN Secretary General Guterres Calls Coal Investment “Stupid”
By Irina Slav - Mar 22, 2022, 9:30 AM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UN-Secretary-General-Guterres-Calls-Coal-Investment-Stupid.html
----------------

See also:
Energy 160, ESG, Net zero, Gas power, and Electric vehicles, February 07, 2022
Energy 161, No Tricks Zone on Europe energy situation, e-cars, February 24, 2022
Energy 162, Russia fossil fuels trade, random notes, March 25, 2022.

BWorld 533, After two years of lockdown, what have we achieved?

* My article in BusinessWorld last March 14.
------------

After two years of lockdown, what have we achieved?

This coming Wednesday, the Philippines will mark the second anniversary of the lockdown imposed by the government on March 16, 2020. It was supposed to be a temporary “two weeks only to flatten the curve” enhanced community quarantine (ECQ). The two weeks became two months of modified ECQ (MECQ), which became two years of ECQ, MECQ, general CQ (GCQ), modified GCQ (MGCQ), and Alert levels 1 to 5.

So, have we “flattened the curve” of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Philippines and other countries? Or has the law of unintended consequences kicked in again?

Here are 10 observations and facts from the two years of lockdown.

One, the Philippine economy was flattened. It suffered the worst, deepest economic performance since post-WW2 with a 9.6% GDP contraction in 2020. Of the top 50 largest economies in the world by GDP size, the five worst performing economies in 2020 were Spain with -10.8%, followed by Argentina -9.9%, the UK -9.8%, the Philippines -9.6%, and Italy -8.9%.

A few economies managed to grow in 2020 because they did not impose heavy lockdowns on their people and businesses.

Two, in 2021 almost all countries managed to grow due to “base effect.” Their 2020 GDP levels were so low that any marginal increase above that low base would translate to growth. The Philippines grew 5.7% in 2021 but that would be equivalent only to the GDP level of 2018. It will reach the 2019 level around the second or third quarter of this year.

Three, the Philippines has had the worst, strictest lockdown policies in Asia and among the worst in the whole world in 2020. One measurement is the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports (GCCMR), percent changes in mobility from the baseline period of Jan. 3 to Feb. 6, 2020 (pre-lockdowns worldwide). Two of six areas in the GCCMR are chosen: Retail and Recreation (restaurants, cafes, malls, museums, cinemas) and Transit stations (subway/MRT stations, seaport, taxi stand, highway rest stops, car rentals).

Economies that escaped contraction in 2020 like Taiwan and Vietnam had less strict lockdowns, like their mobility restrictions and change in transit stations were only -13% compared to the Philippines’ -60% (See Table 1).

Four, lockdowns or mandatory stay-at-home-unless-going-to-work-or-buy-necessities orders were proven to be ineffective in controlling the spread of the virus. This is shown by the prolonged, indefinite lockdowns, mild or strict in form, while COVID cases and deaths continued. In the Philippines, the total cases per million population at end-2020 of 4,269 increased five times by end-2021. Total deaths per million population end-2020 of 83 increased also five times by end-2021.

Five, the Philippines’ COVID cases per million of 33,000 as of March 10 this year are actually low compared to our neighbors in the ASEAN like Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore. Also, lower than those that are richer and have better healthcare systems like Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.

Six, those Asian countries mentioned have higher vaccination rates than the Philippines. As of end-2021, the Philippines’ 45 fully-vaxxed people per hundred was nearly one-half (1/2) that of Singapore’s 85 and South Korea’s 83, yet these two countries have COVID cases per million that are three to four times larger than the Philippines (See Table 2).

Seven, vax discrimination worsened the lockdown policies in the Philippines — like no vax-card-or-negative-PCR-tests, no entry to offices, malls, or public transportation like buses, boats and planes. See again Table 1 — the Philippines’ -42% mobility change in transit stations in 2021, -25% in retail and recreation, was among the highest in the world.

Eight, the omicron variant seems to be the “natural vaccine” that affected millions of Filipinos within weeks but mostly with no or mild symptoms and allowed the body to develop natural immunity. The result was a rapid rise then rapid decline in the number of cases.

Nine, more vaccination, more COVID cases. Until last week, the Philippines had the lowest rate of fully-vaxxed people in Asia and yet the Philippines has had consistently declining COVID cases, and somehow attained natural herd immunity. In contrast, high vax rate countries Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, etc. have high or rising number of cases as do some industrialized countries in Europe — Germany, the UK, and Austria. (See Covid new daily cases chart).

Ten, lockdown and implicit mandatory vaccination should stop. Vaccination should be voluntary, not mandatory. People own their body, not the government or the World Health Organization, or the media and medical NGOs. The economic damage of the lockdown has been severe over the past two years. This plus the high energy and consumer prices because of the economic sanctions against Russia and the continuing war in Ukraine mean people need to work more, produce more food and other physical commodities, and transport them across provinces, cities and islands.

The number of vax injuries and vax-related deaths is rising too. According to the Open VAERS (vaccine adverse events reporting system, https://openvaers.com/) as of March 4 there were more than two million reported cases, including more than 25,000 COVID vaccine reported deaths around the world, and these are just the voluntarily reported incidents, estimated to constitute just 1% of actual adverse events.

In the coming Presidential elections, voters should remember the “flatten the economy” impact of the two years of lockdown by the Duterte administration. The BBM-Sara Duterte tandem is the embodiment of continued economic hardships. They should not win.
---------------

See also:
BWorld 530, Dredge Laguna de Bay for potable water use, February 24, 2022
BWorld 531, Energy and economic impact of Russia-Ukraine war, March 25, 2022
BWorld 532, The law of unintended consequences in the US-Russia economic war, March 26, 2022.

Covid 72, More testimonies of vax injuries

* This is a repost of my blog post in CDC Ph website.
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Some comments in the CDC Ph Huddle, April 2, 2022

Compiled by Nonoy Oplas

Tess B to Everyone (7:10 PM)

There is this tiktok girl who is a Nurse. She died today due to ruptured brain aneurysm. No one's talking about the vax but knowing that she is a Nurse, sure may booster shot na rin yun. 24 years old lang.

Kai D to Everyone (7:32 PM)

Just had a relative that died of a heart attack. 44 years. Fully vaccinated with booster. Our relatives make no connection. Fact: St. Peter, Q.C. Will not allow unvaccinated to attend the wake of somebody that might have died from a vaccine injury.

Warren A to Everyone (7:48 PM)

Good evening po. Someone messaged me this,

Hello po. Ask ko lang po, ma'am, naospital po yung tatay ko, nanginginig at naninigas tyan, may bumubukol po sa muscle legs nya. Vaxxed po sya ng janssen.. Nung nasa ER po, pinapirma kami ng waiver at tuturukan po sya ng paracetamol daw. Parang ngayon lang po kasi ako naka encounter ng pinapipirma ng waiver sa paracetamol lang. Normal lang po ba yun? Aeknil injection daw po ang tawag dun. Nalaman ko lang po kasi nag usisa ako sa nurse, hinabol ko po kasi blangko po yung papel na pinapipirmahan e. Nag aalala po kasi ako na baka kung ano itinurok sa tatay ko. Pero negative naman po sya sa covid.. At after 5 days nadischarge din po sya. May kidney stones daw po. Pati mother po ng frend ko naospital din pala last week at kidney stone din findings.. Vaxxed din po mother nya. This is the third time I noticed that a patient in the hospital received a jab. The father of a market vendor died after  getting it.

Tess B to Everyone (8:00 PM)

Asawa ng kamaganak ko died last Sunday, 53 lang. She had thyroid problem and taking maintenance med but she was ok, even reporting to work everyday. According to her daughter, she got the booster last Jan. Second week of Feb she got sick. Long story short, biglang diagnosed with thyroid cancer stage 4, butas butas ang colon, may blood clots sa lungs, dami raw nodules then accordingly, she dies of sepsis. I just kept silent kasi hindi nila tatanggapin na baka dahil sa shots.

Thomas Y to Everyone (8:03 PM)

awhile ago from one of my best friends since elementary saying he was diagnosed with bile duct CA stage 4. he was boostered with pfizer last dec. 2. do u think this is the vax effect?

Teacher Ever to Everyone (8:08 PM)

I rarely browse thru Facebook, but when I do, I would see posts that some of my friends’ elder parents have died recently. Vxxd, and i sadly remember old posts from them of being proud and relieved to be vaxxd…

sonia l to Everyone (8:41 PM)

Double vaxx po friend ko tapos nagkaroon sya ng thyroid problem. Kailangan po sa school na magpabooster siya. Sinabihan sya ng dr nya na hwag muna magpabooster pero ang director namin sinabihan na hindi makakapasok sa school kung hindi sya nagpa rtpcr.

Tina V to Everyone (8:45 PM)

My sister who has CA was told by her Dr to get vaxxed...she did 2 + 1 booster. after the booster things escalated.  she's been back n forth to the hospital ...pneumonia, thyroid complications, heart rate up n down, and other complications.  plus still chemo n immunotherapy (250, 000 per 30 min session) ...is this insane or a slow death??

Jingjing F to Everyone (8:52 PM)

I'm seeing people I know vaxxed dying from various causes. one parang lumala ang diabetes died 3 weeks ago. yung isa leukemia, died the other day. both still 50s

Jingjing F to Everyone (8:56 PM)

my uncle got vaxxed. am not sure if he had the booster but 2x I know for sure. he now has CA liver. 😪
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CDC Ph Huddle audience comments, March 5, 2022

nagac to Everyone (7:27 PM)

ang anak ko nursing student, can't attend their capping its because not vaccinated . Ang ched tatlong beses na namin napuntahan same parin ang guidelines fully vaccinated.

This is the card that they’re referring to: https://mailchi.mp/0f76885f50da/dilg-warns-public-vs-covid-vax-exemption-cards-no-such-thing?fbclid=IwAR05rZRy58ztMld_ZxwT7WPG_5AD02Qr7xET5-WMq8jOV7FjsdTGqZ30OOc

Vaxx injured Florence to Everyone (7:47 PM)

ako po ay napilitan mgpavaccine. dahil po need s trabaho at sobrang higpit noon dito s caloocan. ngayon po mag 1½ months n po ako di nkakatrabaho. sna po matulungan nyo po ako. 😞di ko po alam san po akong ahensya ppnta pra mkahingi ng tulong financial.

Teacher Ever to Everyone (7:49 PM)

Here po, the full report: https://phmpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/5.3.6-postmarketing-experience.pdf

Vaxx injured Florence to Everyone (7:51 PM)

for MRI po ako. possible brain aneurysm po ang sabi ng doktor. nahihirapan po ako dahil hangang ngaun sumasakit po ang ulo ko. 😞may nana po ang gums ko at 3 days n po sumaskit n din ang mga kulani ko s leeg. 😞

Tess B to Everyone (7:57 PM)

I personally know someone, fully vaxxed with Pfizer booster shot. She suddenly died early morning the other day. Nag poop ng blood then nag cardiac arrest. Spent a few hours in the ICU then died. Problem is, family only say that she was diabetic at hindi ina-attribute sa vax ang sudden death. Lahat kasi sila sa family vaccinated na.

VaLerie to Everyone (8:14 PM)

Neighbour one house away, pooping bLood & aLso lumabas sa pwerta, bleeding profusely then died early morning. 11‐Jan‐22. Pfizer, two doses.

Kate to Everyone (8:25 PM)

My employer (BPO) is still pushing for boosters.  My boss got one last Thursday after telling me he is scared because one of our trainer's Dad died after getting boosted.

Kate to Everyone (8:27 PM)

My other officemate took the moderna booster (he is already double jabbed with Pfizer).  He said it burns and is experiencing body aches.

Francis F to Everyone (8:28 PM)

my boss sa BPO right now is having a hard time breathing and she needs oxygen all the time. and yet she enlist herself fo the booster. nakakalungkot yung state of mind nila.

milo to Everyone (8:30 PM)

thanks cdcph. ang galing ng protocol nyo.  nagamit ko.  ang galing ng ivermectin.... maraming salamat. buhay father ko.  ako hindi rin na tinablahan ng virus
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Now this new Duterte vaccine crony Joey Concepcion, pushing the vax maybe because government over-purchased the vax (vax procurement budget 2021 P82.5 B, 2022 P45 B, national government alone, excluding purchase by some rich LGUs, corporations) and they are soon expiring. Bakuna pera pera?
----------------------

See also:
Covid 69, CDC Ph reply to DOH-IATF on mass vaccination of 5-11 yo, February 08, 2022
Covid 70, Doc Iggy Agbayani on pedia vaccination, February 23, 2022 
Covid 71, More vax adverse reactions, February 24, 2022.