Monday, February 07, 2022

Energy 160, ESG, Net zero, Gas power, and Electric vehicles

Economics is the study of proper allocation of scarce or limited resources given unlimited wants. So that shortages of commodities and high, unstable prices can be avoided. Now energy shortages are experienced in some countries as reflected in their high prices -- natgas and coal in Europe to avoid blackouts, near empty shelves in some US groceries. Political science, political narratives prevail over real economics. 

A. ESG, Net Zero fiction

ESG = Extreme Shortages Guaranteed!
By Ronald Stein. Jan 17, 2022

Experts Are Warning That Empty Shelves And Food Shortages Are Going To Continue For Many Weeks To Come
January 17, 2022 by Michael Snyder

The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A.
Ken Gregory, P. Eng., Jan. 12, 2022

The review of the Tanton report found 10 major problems. Here I summarize only five of the problems.

1. The battery storage costs are far too low and do not account for seasonal, daily and hourly changes of S+W output.

2. Nuclear, hydro, biomass, geothermal and waste heat sources do not need to be replaces. Accepting these sources causes the fraction of power generation that should be replaced to be reduced from 90% to 60% which is the fossil fuel portion for 2020.

3. The S+W average capacity factor should be reduced from 33% to 28%.

4. Natural gas used in buildings was double counted as that volume was also included in natural gas used for power generation.

5. Costs for converting off-road vehicles (e.g., tractors) to electricity are excluded.

The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A. (22 pages)
By: Ken Gregory, P.Eng.  December 20, 2021

The total cost of electrification without fossil fuels is estimated at US$386 trillion and US$433 trillion using the 2019 and 2020 energy production profiles, respectively. Since the weather and consequently the battery storage costs are so variable, the actual battery storage costs would be higher than estimated here to provide a reasonable amount of contingency battery reserve. The cost of US$433 trillion is equivalent to over 20 times the US 2019 GDP. It would cost every adult (18 year and over) a total of US$1.7 million!

Cost of Electrification: A State-by-State Analysis and Results (34 pages)

Thomas Tanton, President, T2 and Associates
October 2020 

Energy and Environmental Review: January 31, 2022
By John Droz, Jr. -- January 31, 2022

Greed Energy Economics:

*** Report: Cost of onshore wind has been rising for 20 years

*** Some Cost of Renewable Electricity Web pages

Net Zero Watch pours scorn on Tony Blair Institute claims about ‘cheap’ onshore wind

Revisiting the Keystone XL Pipeline and Joe Biden’s False Promise of ‘Green Jobs’

Activists, progressives say NY needs to spend $15B in climate fight

College symposium on climate change should look at costs of putting big solar, wind energy in rural NY

More Focus On The Impossible Costs Of A Fully Wind/Solar/Battery Energy System
Francis Menton  February 01, 2022

How Much Do The Climate Crusaders Plan To Increase Your Costs Of Electricity? -- Part III
Francis Menton  November 29, 2018

Global Coal Consumption Reaches New Record High In 2021…China, India Consuming Two Thirds
By P Gosselin on 23. January 2022

Green Wrecking Ball: Germany Clearing “Undisturbed” 1000-Year Old Forest, Make Way For Massive Wind Park
By P Gosselin on 4. February 2022

B. Gas power

Gas gap in Europe drives U.S. LNG exports to record high 
By Reuters. By Marcy de Luna and Nina Chestney  Updated: 06/01/2022

Can the US find enough natural gas sources to neutralize Russia’s energy leverage over Europe?
Amy Myers Jaffe, Research professor, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
January 31, 2022 1.01pm GMT

Fossil fuels account for more than 70% of Europe's energy supply, with a growing share coming from natural gas

U.S. sellers have been able to supply more gas to Europe by diverting export cargoes, rather than by selling gas that would otherwise have been used domestically. In my view, if U.S. natural gas prices rise in the coming weeks, winter weather is likely to be a bigger driver than LNG exports.

Explainer: Could more LNG supplies get to Europe in the event of a crisis?
By Scott Disavino  January 26, 2022  6:31 AM GMT+8

Gas reserves in Russia will last more than 100 years — Miller
Chairman of the Gazprom Board of Directors Alexei Miller noted that Russian gas reserves are the largest in the world
17 SEP 2021, 19:37,%20September%2017.%20%2F%20TASS,of%20the%20International%20Business%20Congress.

Natural Gas is a Bridge to Nowhere
by Paul Hockenos  07 Jan 2021

UK Gas Production Could Plunge 75% By 2030
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 28, 2022, 10:00 AM CST

Biden Blows Up Yet Another Gas Pipeline
Clarice Feldman • 30 Jan, 2022 •

Take seven-billion-dollar Eastern Mediterranean Gas Pipeline. In August of 2020 I reported how the Greeks, Cypriots, and Israelis  had coordinated plans for a 1,200-mile undersea pipeline connecting Israeli and Cypriot gas fields to Greece and then to Europe.

President Trump  supported the pipeline. But President Biden, in a “non -paper” (an unofficial communication), has notified the Greek government that we are no longer supporting the project, allegedly because it posed a security threat to the region. Except, of course, when Russia wanted waivers to build Nord Stream 2,  a non-green gas pipeline to Europe, it had no such qualms.

Natural Gas as a ‘Bridge Fuel’: Back to the 1980s/90s
By Robert Bradley Jr. -- February 2, 2022

Dwindling French Gas Stockpiles Stoke Fears Of Winter Blackouts
TYLER DURDEN   FRIDAY, FEB 04, 2022 - 05:45 AM

C. E-vehicles

2021: The Year the Electric Vehicle Batteries Burned
Eric Worrall.  Jan 2, 2022

The Real Brake on America’s Electric-Vehicle Revolution
Capital is pouring into U.S. EV and battery plants, but not into the foundations of a domestic battery industry, leaving the supply chain uncomfortably dependent on China
Stephen Wilmot. Jan. 28, 2022 5:30 am ET

See also:
Energy 157, Blackout-friendly RE, Europe experience and lessons for the PH, December 18, 2021
Energy 158, Europe rolling blackout, Germany's anti-nuke anti-coal policy, December 25, 2021
Energy 159, US coal, gas, oil production vs solar, February 03, 2022.

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