Thursday, February 24, 2022

Energy 162, Immediate impact of Russia invasion of Ukraine

Feb. 24, 10 pm, Manila

About 12 hours ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. The impact on energy prices is wild.

WTI and Brent crude oil prices are +8% over yesterday prices.

TTF/EU gas  and UK gas prices are +41% over yesterday. 

Solar index and wind index are -2%, EU carbon permits -9%.

When shit hits the fan, people will embrace fossil fuels and save themselves, survive another day, another month. Fossil fuels sizzling, wind solar melting, carbon permits to "save the planet" proving again as an expensive joke.

Russia gas-dependent Europe have enriched Putin, Gazprom, Surguneftegas, Rosneft, etc for decades. Especially since around June 2021 when gas prices started picking up high until today. UK's BoJo championed wind-solar to save the planet in UN climate meeting last November in Scotland, for show and media mileage but actually he and EU leaders enriching Russia with more oil gas imports at high prices.

W. Europe might face civil unrest over high inflation, especially very high gasoline and electricity prices. Since about January, UK announced that electricity prices will rise 54% starting April 1. They have self inflicted energy and econ problems. Germany for instance has lots of coal reserves, very developed nuke power technology. but they are closing these to "save the planet", then import oil gas from Russia, Qatar etc.

The bad thing for us in poorer countries like the Philippines is that the cost of agri production and transportation -- tractors, harvesters, water pumps, trucks, etc all using oil -- will rise. Food prices will rise. Electricity prices too will rise as Malampaya gas price is pegged at Dubai crude price, also rising. And government and local planet saviors talk about raising carbon tax, meaning even higher oil prices and electricity prices as about 80% of PH power generation are from fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil plants).

See also:
Energy 159, US coal, gas, oil production vs solar, February 03, 2022 
Energy 160, ESG, Net zero, Gas power, and Electric vehicles, February 07, 2022
Energy 161, No Tricks Zone on Europe energy situation, e-cars, Feb. 24, 2022.

No comments: