Friday, September 24, 2021

Germany elections 2021, some scenarios

Germany election this coming Sunday, September 26. The top political parties based on various surveys are the socialist SPD, Christian democrats CDU of Merkel, the Greens, the Free democrats FDP, and EU skeptic AfD, in that order. 

My sympathy or support of course is for the FDP -- advocates more private investments and businesses, less government taxes and borrowings, more individual liberty. See for instance this report,

"We want to increase investment in Germany", FDP leader says 
By Tanja Daube and Alexander Ratz   September 13, 2021   11:35 PM PST

FDP leader Christian Lindner said his business-friendly party would not join any coalition government that wanted to increase taxes and soften constitionally enshrined borrowing limits...

"For us it's important that the debt brake in the constitution must be respected," Lindner said, opening the door for reduced deficit-spending in Europe's largest economy.

The Greens in 3rd, I still hope that FDP will overtake them. The reason is that Europe now is wobbling from record high energy prices because the beloved wind power of the Greens and climate activists has low as the wind hardly blows, and Europe depends on gas from Russia and Russia restricted gas exports to W. Europe.

Germany has overtaken Denmark to be #1 as most expensive electricity prices in the world, see 
Energy 155, IEA flip-flop on oil and gas, Germany's high power prices and blackout

This afternoon I attended the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF) Philippines IAF alumni virtual gathering. IAF alumni are those who attended 1-2 weeks seminars in IAF, Gummersbach, Germany. I went there in October 2008.

Late part of the program was a lecture by Mr. Thomas Clausen about the upcoming elections. He noted that
* The left (Linke) and socialists (SPD) focus on wage control, rent control, pension control, etc.
* The liberals (FDP) focus on lower taxes, civil liberties, reform of pension system.
* The Greens focus on climate change, Klimaliste activism (by extension, focus on more renewables, exit from fossil fuels and nuke power). 
* The anti-illegal immigration AfD has stabilized, not rising further and now they are strong only in East Germany.

As usual, no single political party will dominate the upcoming elections and form a majority government. It will be a coalition by the #1 with usually #3 and #4, the #2 playing the opposition. FDP can work with CDU but not with the socialists SPD, but it might be a possibility. 

If the SPD dominate and coalesce with the Greens, then Germany will further spring to double #1 in most expensive, unstable and blackout-friendly energy in the world. See these stories, 
Energy 154, Europe rising energy prices, blackout threats, 40 reports.

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