Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Ukraine War 3, The need for negotiations and stop the fighting

Below are some of my notes/comments this morning in a civil debate with some friends in the "Oplas Perspectives" viber group. Enjoy.

About potential NATO-Russia war, they should NOT do it. Also the potential Taiwan+US vs China war, they should NOT do it.

Ukraine-Russia war should have stopped weeks or few months after it started. Both sides shd have negotiated and external forces like UK, US should have stepped back. This did not happen and endless deaths and destruction continue until today. Some clear proof of the evil of continued fighting here.

War in Ukraine at 2 years: Destruction seen from space – via radar
Sylvain Barbot February 23, 2024

Ukraine is the weaker force vs Russia, it should have negotiated in 2021 or earlier.

Taiwan is the weaker force vs China, it should negotiate now before any missile flies.

PH is the weaker force vs China on the SCS/WPS, it should negotiate before jumping into a P2 trillion AFP procurement alone on top of existing hundreds billions AFP budget.

What Russia wanted before the invasion? No NATO membership for Ukraine. Stay neutral, neither pro Russia nor pro-NATO. Is this sooo hard to comply? Plus denazification of Donbas region.

What China wants in Taiwan? Unification, even via long-term transition, maybe by 2070 or 2060. Sooo hard to comply that TW should prepare for large-scale war and destruction?

People want the macho stand. No real negotiation in 2021 or earlier, happening in 2024. Patayan lang endlessly.

Extend that philosophy, PH should not negotiate with CN over WPS/SCS. Just hop on to P2 trillion AFP procurement, plus possibly P1 trillion PCG and PNP procurement. On Top of their hundreds billions pesos existing budget.

Rural infra, who cares? Prioritize purchase of missiles, submarines, battle ships. awww. 

Europe should step back from the Ukraine-Russia war. Address their own internal problems -- like so many illegal immigrants, huge annual deficit and public debt, expensive energy due to dependence on wind-solar and foreign oil-gas, etc. 

Let Ukraine negotiate with Russia. Stop the fighting now.

Since about 1991, Russian leaders negotiated with NATO. Russia (then headed by Gorbachev?) disbanded the Warsaw Pact, the military alliance like NATO, hoping that in exchange NATO should not expand towards Russia.

Russia fulfilled its promise, NATO did not. Now Estonia, Latvia are NATO members, right beside Russia.  Ukraine is even bigger. Length of border with Russia is 2,300 kms. Compare Manila-Davao distance only 964 kms. So finding and anticipating missiles along that 2,300 kms border will be impossible.

There was deliberate but silent invitation by US for Ukraine to join NATO. 2008 Putin negotiated with Obama but the latter did not make a categorical No to Ukraine membership in NATO. Putin asked again Biden in 2021, latter did not give that assurance.

Angela Merkel too indirectly admitted that the Minsk talks were meant to buy time for NATO to train more Ukraine soldiers, transfer more armaments.

In case of war with NATO, if NATO missiles for Moscow would come from Poland, maybe 8 mins flying time to reach Moscow, plus Belarus will see these and alert Russia. But if NATO missiles would come from Ukraine, it's near, it's dispersed, and Belarus won't see them. Estonia and Latvia as unfriendly neighbors, Russia may manage because of the short border length. 

Meanwhile, good data from statista here.

by Martin Armstrong, Feb 23, 2024

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