Sunday, November 05, 2023

Ukraine War 1, Ukraine may soon surrender, then war in Europe will stop, good

Good news, seems that peace in Europe, end to Ukraine war, is near via negotiations and not endless war. The war mongers are folding.

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say
The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.
By Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee and Kristen Welker. Nov. 4, 2023

Earlier Ukraine top military commander spoke publicly that there's no military gain in their "counteroffensive". Implying the need to negotiate. And Late October, EU allies of Ukraine already sidelined it, 

Ukraine's Top Commander Makes Surprising First-Time Admission
Tyler Durden Nov. 03, 2023

EU summit turns its eyes away from Ukraine despite a commitment to stay the course with Zelenskyy
AP  OCT 28 2023

WTI crude now only $80/barrel, much lower than pre invasion ave $90 in January 2022, and despite ongoing turmoil in Mideast. Urals or Russia oil price difference with WTI down to only $5-10/barrel, vs $20-25 at height of G7 and EU sanctions.

EU countries' economies either crawling or contracting this year, lower energy demand. EU realized lately their sanctions vs Russia hit them more than Russia itself. EU people try to save the planet while Russia and OPEC save their oil-gas production and exports.

Dwindling ammos and missiles, many Ukraine youths avoiding the military draft, Ukraine defeat via more territories being grabbed by Russia is certain. A peace deal is better than clear defeat. 

Economic realities are getting into the consciousness of the leaders of the West. Ammunition supplies to Ukraine are dwindling, and young Ukrainians are avoiding to be drafted to the military. With less arms and less troops versus Russia, the West will eventually pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. A peace deal is superior to outright defeat.

Germany a big loser in their support for Ukraine and economic sanctions vs Russia. Its GDP growth this year was -0.2% in Q1, zero in Q2, and -0.3% in Q3. Cheap Russia oil gas for Germany's industrial needs has little to no alternative, only expensive oil gas from Mideast due to higher transport cost, long distance.

Before the invasion, 2 issues or demand by Russia: No NATO membership for Ukraine, and Donbas region be separate republics from Ukraine. Ukraine said No to both because the US and many NATO countries promised it continuous supply of armaments. Then there is war.

If war will end, Russia will demand exactly same issues as precondition. This time Ukraine will likely say Yes.

Yon naman pala eh. War could have been avoided in the first place.

Peace via negotiations, not endless wars.

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