* This is my column in BusinessWorld last Friday, May 31, 2019.
Jeju, S. Korea — The two largest economies in the world,
the US and China, have GDP sizes in 2018 of $20.5 T and $13.4 T, respectively.
Third to fifth largest are Japan with $5 T, Germany with $4 T, and UK with $2.8
T.
In terms of per capita income and by extension individual
productivity, the US is far way ahead of China, a multiple of more than 6x. The
Philippines, while having the 13th largest population in the world, is a
midget, both in GDP size and per capita income (see table 1).
Among the major sources of disagreement between these two
giant economies is merchandise trade. Data from the World Trade Organization’s
(WTO) World Trade Statistical Review (WTSR) show that China is the world’s
biggest exporter and the US trade deficit is indeed large, $863 billion in 2017
or average of $2.4 billion a day (see table 2).
People often talk about “protectionist Trump/US” and they
imply that China, EU, etc. are non-protectionists and free traders. They may be
jokers.
Here at the Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity 2019
Conference, May 29-31, the first plenary discussion on Day 2 is on the subject,
“Destined for War? The Future of US-China Relations and its Implications for
the Korean Peninsula.” The three speakers were Prof. Graham Allison of Harvard
University, Li Zhaoixing, former Foreign Minister of China, and Prof. Martin
Jaques of Cambridge University. Moderator was Prof. Moon Chung-In of Yonsei
University and Special Advisor to the ROK President for Unification and
National Security Affair. Congratulatory remarks before the discussion started
were given by Wang Guoqing, former Vice-Minister of the State Council
Information Office, China.
Wang talked about the importance of Asia, did not lambast
the US. Li talked about peace, repeatedly. Allison talked about a possible “2nd
Korean war” that would also involve the US and China, the “Thucydides trap”
where a rising power can wage a war to topple the established power, and
indirectly attacked Trump. Jacques talked about a “new cold war” where before,
the US was a rising power, now a declining power as China is now the world’s
biggest economy, a technological superpower, and in this trade war, the US will
suffer.
My impression is that the two Chinese ex-government
officials were hoping for more peace while the two American academics and
consultants were entertaining a new war. In case there will be a shooting war
someday between the US and China, it could be partly due to alarmist but
influential US academics, US media, and US politicians that tend to exaggerate
things.
Meanwhile the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom
(FNF) held its panel discussion in Day 2 here on “Smart Cities and Startups —
Opportunities for Business Innovation.” Speakers were Christian Taaks of FNF
Korea Office, Marc Bovenschulte of the Institute for Innovation and Technology
in Germany, and Prof. Hwang Jie Eun of the University of Seoul in Korea.
Moderator was Waltraut Ritter of Knowledge Dialogues in Hong Kong, and
Rapporteur was Pimrapaat Dusadeeisariyakul of FNF Thailand. I will write about
the discussion and related subjects in my next column.
Peace and prosperity. More trade, investments and tourism
among countries and not more bombs and missiles. More smart and innovative
cities and countries, not war-freak ones. Tomorrow should be better than today.
We should hope and work for this future.
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See also:
BWorld 331, How governments expand, May 31, 2019
BWorld 332, The global taxpayers conference, June 02, 2019
BWorld 333, The Public Service Act and provincial tourism, June 03, 2019
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