Last week February 7, I was one of the three guests of Cito Beltran in his daily public affairs program "Agenda", One News, Cignal TV. Topic was the economic impact of NCoV on the PH and the global economy. My co-panelists, Prof. Leyco of AIM and PLM, and Ms. Marichu Villanueva of Philippine Star.
Briefly, I mentioned the following adverse impact, the negatives:
1. Trade, our 2019 total imports nearly $100B, 23% of it from CN; exports about $65B, around 14% to CN.
2. Tourism, about 1M of 7M foreign visitors in 2018 from CN...
Some positives:
1. Low oil prices, opportunity for local tourism and agribusiness, tractors and trucks to have cheaper operational costs.
2. Tourism diversification, some visitors abroad who plan to go to HK, CN, Macau, would prefer to go to PH, other ASEAN.
3. Trade diversification, intra ASEAN trade...
Short term impact is largely negative, national and global. Medium term large global and regional realignment of businesses, positive for the PH and ASEAN.
I also mentioned DOH and WHO unpreparedness in dealing with real infectious, killer diseases because they are focused on NCDs, regulating alcohol, sugar, tobacco, products, etc.
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See also:
Agenda, One News, Part 1, June 13, 2019
Agenda, One News, Part 2, July 04, 2019
Agenda, One News, Part 3, August 30, 2019
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