On the lobby by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) for P2 trillion, reported here,
Marcos OKs military’s P2-trillion wish list for weapons, equipment
January 29, 2024
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1895629/marcos-oks-militarys-p2-trillion-wish-list-for-weapons-equipment
AFP lobby is P2 trillion for procurement alone. Training may be included here but not spare parts and services, ammo replacement, etc. not included yet. Over 10 years would be another P0.5 trillion.
The Phil. Coast Guard (PCG) would likely be asking for their own huge boats, many big boats with materials, hire xx thousand new personnel, training, spare parts, etc. Maybe will cost another P1 trillion over 10 years or so.
So AFP + PCG lobby = P2.5 trillion + P 1 trillion = P3.5 trillion. On top of existing spending for these two big agencies. PNP lobby not included yet.
So PH will borrow P3.5 trillion -- taxes and fees won't be able to cover it, cannot even cover regular spending, only borrowings. If borrowed over 25 years to pay, that's P140 B/year, principal amortization alone.
Interest payment, currently the 10-yr PH govt bond is 6.53%. Assume an average 6%, for an optimistic view perspective.
So P3.5 trillion x 0.06 = P195.9 B/year, interest alone. Round off to P196 B.
Principal + interest = P140 B + P196 B = P236 B/year.
AFP and PCG lobby alone annual payment, on top of what they regularly receive. And on top of current interest payment (P670 B in 2023, possibly P750 B in 2024,...) and principal amortization for regular spending and borrowings by the government.
Where to get that big fund yearly? From the pockets of AFP and PCG generals and colonels? Will not be enough because they don't even want to pay for their own pension, don't want to contribute to it, don't want taxation of their monthly pension, etc.
True that all administrations, past and present, have their practices of wastefulness in public spending. But we cannot solve wastefulness with another wastefulness.
Gung ho of going over the brink, "gyera na total hindi obra diplomasya" -- Ukraine did it. And Ukraine got what they wish for -- large scale destruction of many parts of their country, lots of deaths and wounded.
People who wish for military confrontation with China over those far away islets, set aside high profile diplomacy and negotiations -- maybe they can start with your children and grandchildren, sell their properties to pay for more taxes to finance a huge war.
The benefits of this policy -- how many billions or trillions, from where?
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See also:
Fiscal Irresponsibility 32, US public debt rising by $7.7 B/day, October 29, 2023
Fiscal Irresponsibility 33, More about the US deficit and debt, November 18, 2023
Fiscal Irresponsibility 34, On sectoral parochialism and rising public debt, February 20, 2024
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