PAGASA 5, Privatize PAGASA and deregulate weather forecasting

Last December 26, 2018, I travelled from Iloilo to Negros Occidental to see my sister and brother in Cadiz City. I wanted to go back to Iloilo Dec. 28 but there was a storm coming, I decided to go back the next day. Around 11:30am I arrived at the new seaport terminal in Bacolod City, all fastcraft trips Iloilo-Bacolod and back have been cancelled by the PH Coast Guard starting 11am that day because PAGASA has issued storm signal #1 in so many provinces in the Visayas.

What a bummer. At the time of cancellation, the weather in Bacolod was good – no strong wind, sunny with occasional thin clouds, no rains. Far out to be declared as signal #1 (wind speed 30-60 kph in the next 36 hours).

This is the basis for boat trip cancellation that day.

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "USMAN" was estimated based on all available data at 450 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte or 440 km East Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.0 °N, 129.6 °E)

TCWS#1

(30-60kph expected in 36 hrs)

Romblon, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate, including Ticao and Burias Islands, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu including Camotes Islands, Aklan, Capiz, Northern Iloilo and Northern Negros Occidental, Dinagat Island.

What! The storm was 440 kms East of East Samar, and from that area, Bacolod is about 270 kms away. Or the storm’s eye was about 710 kms. away and PAGASA issued storm signal #1, which prompted the PH Coast Guard to cancel all boat trips. Lousy idiotic PAGASA, paranoid Coast Guard.

No choice but leave the seaport, good that my sister has a house in Talisay, next to Bacolod. I stayed there for the night as I did not want to travel back to our house in Cadiz (66 kms. north of Bacolod).

Dost_pagasa issued these bulletins:

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #7

FOR:Tropical Depression #UsmanPH

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

ISSUED AT:5:00 PM, 27 December 2018

Location of eye/center: At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression "USMAN" was estimated based on all available data at 410 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.3 °N, 129.4 °E)

TCWS#1 (30-60kph expected in 36 hrs)

Romblon, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate, including Ticao and Burias Islands, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu including Camotes Islands, Aklan, Capiz, Northern Iloilo and Northern Negros Occidental, Dinagat Island

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11

FOR:Tropical Depression #UsmanPH

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

ISSUED AT: 5:00 AM, 28 December 2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION "#UsmanPH" HAS MAINTAINED ITS COURSE AND HEADING TOWARDS EASTERN VISAYAS. "#UsmanPH" may intensify into a Tropical Storm prior to landfall over Eastern Samar tonight.

Forecast Positions: 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 75 km West Southwest of Catbalogan City, Samar(11.6°N, 124.2°E)

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #17

FOR:Tropical Depression #UsmanPH

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

ISSUED AT:11:00 PM, 28 December 2018

"USMAN" is expected to make landfall over Eastern Samar tomorrow early morning (29 December).

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression "USMAN" was estimated based on all available data at 215 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.8 °N, 127.7 °E)

TCWS#1 (30-60 km/h Expected in 36 hours)

Northern Palawan incl. Calamian and Cuyo Groups of Islands, southern Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, including Ticao and Burias Islands, southern Occidental Mindoro, and southern Oriental Mindoro, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu incl. Camotes Islands, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo,Guimaras, Antique, Northern Negros Occidental, Dinagat Islands.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #19

FOR:Tropical Depression #UsmanPH

Tropical Cyclone: WARNING

ISSUED AT:5:00 AM, 29 December 2018

"USMAN" is expected to make landfall over Eastern Samar this morning.

Moderate to heavy rains will prevail over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region and Aurora, while light to moderate with at times heavy rains is expected over Metro Manila and Visayas.

Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "USMAN" was estimated based on all available data at 65 km East Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.9 °N, 126.3 °E)

TCWS

Northern Palawan incl. Calamian and Cuyo Groups of Islands, southern Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, including Ticao and Burias Islands, southern Occidental Mindoro, and southern Oriental Mindoro Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu incl. Camotes Islands, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo,Guimaras, Antique, and Northern Negros Occidental. Dinagat Islands

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More than 36 hours, about 45 hours and wind speed of 30-60 kph for storm signal #1 was never reached. Lousy forecasts by PAGASA. And this agency along with other weather/atmospheric  agencies of other countries and members of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) along with the UN IPCC are soooo confident, so sure they can predict the world's weather and climate, the temperature range, 100 years from now. Lousy.

Anyway, boat trips Iloilo-Bacolod and back were allowed morning of December 29, when the storm has made a landfall in Samar and has weakened, declared a simple low pressure area (LPA).

PAGASA makes frequent bad weather forecasts and it does not get penalized, unlike firms in the private sector. Instead, PAGASA gets more money. It just tells Congress that they need more instruments, more staff and more training and Congress gives them more money. Its inefficiency is rewarded, never penalized.
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See also: 
PAGASA Bureaucracy 3: On Giving Local Names to Storms with International Names, August 20, 2012
Fat Free Econ 44: Deregulate Weather Forecasting, July 10, 2013 
PAGASA 4: On Unjustified Class Cancellations, July 15, 2014