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This may sound like a “politically incorrect” statement
so let me explain why.
One, there is no market failure in providing the service
as the scientific and technical know-how to gather data and interpret them can
be done by private enterprises. Weather forecasting need not be an exclusive
function of the government.
There are several independent weather analysts in the
country that often have better analysis than the Philippine Atmospheric
Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), and they charge
the public nothing. These guys get raw data from the meteorological agencies of
Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Hawaii/US, etc. They charge zero because they
also get their raw information for free.
But once they charge for their services, private weather
forecasting enterprises must produce value added over the free forecasts of
those meteorological agencies of other countries. They must invest in modern
equipment and tools, and get more trained meteorologists, oceanographers and
climatologists to do more detailed analysis of short- and long-term trends in
weather and climate.
Two, privatization would allow competition for more
accurate, more detailed and industry-specific weather forecasting. There
is a business there. Among the major clients will be airlines, shipping lines,
bus lines, hotels, beach resorts, mountain resorts, agri-business companies,
event organizers, TV and radio stations, local governments, national government
agencies (Air Transportation Office, MARINA, Coast Guard, Department of
Agriculture, etc) and so on.
Since these companies and institutions are in for the
long haul, they will be interested to see long-term perspectives on climate.
Like how long will the current global cooling last, its effect on national,
regional and global food production, tourism, public health and other economic
and social sectors.
Three, privatization would put accountability to those
forecasts. There will be a private contract between the forecasting service
provider and its clients. If the latter made bad business decisions as a result
of frequent false forecasts by the former, the forecasting company can be sued,
it can go bankrupt and its officers can go to prison. To avoid this,
forecasting companies will be forced to upgrade and modernize their tools and
interpretation of raw data, and their information dissemination.
In the case of PAGASA, thousands of lives are lost, while
billions of pesos of private property are damaged -- such was the case when
Typhoon Sendong hit Mindanao two years ago -- because PAGASA failed to see the
trajectory of the storm. Have PAGASA officials been sanctioned? Any failed or
wrong analysis, or over-reaction (declaring an LPA immediately even if there is
none) is a reason for PAGASA to say, "we need more money". So
inefficiency is rewarded with more tax money.
PAGASA’s budget has risen through the years. It got P1.20
billion in 2011, followed by P1.28 B in 2012, and P1.46 B in 2013. The bulk of
its budget is capital outlay, which means the purchase of more modern equipment
and offices, followed by maintenance and other operating expenses then personnel
services. The salaries and allowances of its personnel have also risen (see
table below).
Table 1. PAGASA Staff, 2012-2013
Source: DBM,
Staffing Summary.
Private weather forecasting enterprises will be penalized
if they make frequent bad forecasts. No tax money will be used to put them up
or bail them out if they are inefficient. They are under pressure to provide
more accurate, regular updates, hour by hour or even every 30 minutes in the
case of severe weather disturbances. Each failure in forecast translates to
financial losses, not to mention loss of reputation.
In the US, there are at least eight private weather
forecasting companies that have private subscribers and make money. These are
on top of US government meteorology agencies like the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Weather Service (NWS) and the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC, Hawaii). These private services are as follows:
- AccuWeather, www.accuweather.com
- CustomWeather, www.customweather.com
- The Weather Channel, www.weather.com
- Schneider Electric (formerly DTN Meteorlogix), http://www.schneider-electric.com
- Forecast Advisor, www.forecastadvisor.com
- Intellicast, http://www.intellicast.com
- My Forecast, http://www.myforecast.com
- Weather Bell, http://www.weatherbell.com
In UK, I know of one solar physicist in London, Piers
Corbyn, who owns a private weather forecasting company, Weather Action. And he
often beats the UK Meteorology Office in predicting weather three months or one
year ahead. He uses Solar Weather Technique (SWT) in making his predictions,
and he gets many subscribers.
Aside from the above reasons, I have a few personal
reasons why I want to see a deregulated weather forecasting system in the
country, and even a privatized PAGASA.
One, when I got married in Iloilo City several years ago,
my siblings and nieces from the nearby island of Negros Occidental were unable
to attend. PAGASA foisted signal no. 2 in Region 6, so the Coast Guard
prevented all inter-island boats from plying the Iloilo-Bacolod route. But my
sister and brother said there was not even rain in Bacolod that day, cloudy but
no rain or strong wind. The same in Iloilo.
Ordinary folks can only complain of PAGASA's inefficiency
but beyond that, there is nothing we can do. We cannot terminate PAGASA funding
nor sue it as there is no direct and explicit contract between the public and
that agency. Some people would even say, "Oh, PAGASA made lousy analysis
again. Perhaps they need more money, Congress and DBM should give them more
money." There is no accountability for a monopoly.
Two, I have long wanted to compare the country's
temperature data. For instance, I want to know how June 2013’s average
temperature was compared to the same month in earlier years. This data is
unavailable in the PAGASA website, nor can it be requested for free. The data
is for sale, and one must go to their office in Quezon City, pay and get the
official receipt, and wait for about a week to get the data. We taxpayers give
them money for their annual operation, and we have to pay them again to get
data.
PAGASA will benefit if there are many private weather
forecasting companies in the country as it will be forced to be on its toes and
so provide more accurate short- and long-term perspectives in weather and
climate.
See also:
Fat-Free Econ 41: Cut Income Taxes, April 08, 2013
Fat Free Econ 42: NSCB vs SWS Data on Poverty, April 30, 2013
Fat Free Econ 43: On the Philippines' Fast Economic Growth, June 04, 2013
PAGASA Bureaucracy 1: On Temperature Data, July 14, 2011.
PAGASA Bureaucracy 2: Deregulate Weather Forecasting, December 20, 2011
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