* This is my column in BusinessWorld last February 27, 2019.
The second Trump-Kim Summit in Vietnam this week,
February 27-28, points to many good and optimistic scenarios not only for both
US and N. Korea but also for the ASEAN, East Asia and the rest of the world.
The first Trump-Kim summit last June 2018 was held in
Singapore. Mr. Kim Jong Un (KJU) and N. Korea officials saw there that even a
small country with just 5.7M people, very poor until the early ‘60s when it was
kicked out of the Malaysia federation, and no nukes but market-and
globally-integrated can become so prosperous and politically-respected
worldwide.
KJU went to Vietnam (VN) last Monday or two days before
the summit and had talks with officials there. VN is indeed a perfect venue for
the summit and for KJU to learn lessons for at least six reasons.
(1) VN is politically socialist, a one-party state but
economically capitalist, (2) VN was very poor until 1975 when the devastating
Vietnam War ended then managed to grow fast via market-oriented reforms like
privatization of many state enterprises and trade liberalization, zero tariff
with ASEAN neighbors, (3) VN was a former US enemy and later embraced the US as
economic and military partner, (4) VN has no nukes yet politically secure, (5)
VN is not far from Pyongyang, perhaps only 4 hours by plane, and (6) VN is an
ASEAN member like Singapore, the association is 3rd biggest consumer bloc in
the world (about 650M consumers) with many friends all over the world.
Let us go back a few decades and see what N. Korea has
missed all these years by being a hermit-like economy. A mid-point 1995 is
included below because that’s the year where (1) Vietnam normalized ties with
the US, and (2) WTO was created that year and global trade has improved. Data
are from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) and the IMF’s
World Economic Outlook (WEO) but both institutions do not have data for N.
Korea. The multiples are computed from the GDP size (see table).
So what N.Korea missed: (1) Fast growth of S. Korea for
3.5 decades, economy expanded about 140x from 1960 to 1995, (2) From 1995 to
2010 or just 1.5 decades, China economy expanded 8.2x while VN economy expanded
5.4x, and (3) sustained growth until 2017, China and Vietnam economy expanded
2x in seven years.
So while N.Korea denuclearization will be the center of
the Trump-Kim meeting, a second most important topic will be the transition of
N. Korea to VN-like economy. And in the process, to reduce dependence from
China which has growing toxic relations with many neighbors like Japan, Taiwan,
S. Korea, India, Vietnam and Philippines.
Speaking of this topic, Stratbase-Albert del Rosario
Institute (ADRi) organized a forum on “Corrosive Capital? The Political Economy
of Chinese Foreign Investments in the Philippines” last week February 21 at the
Tower Club, Makati. The speaker was Alvin Camba, a PhD Sociology candidate at
Johns Hopkins University. Reactors were Dr. Rene de Castro of DLSU and myself.
Alvin said, “Current iterations of Chinese foreign
capital is corrosive, bypasses and transforms pre-existing procedures,
concentrates profits in specific groups, and strengthens and generates new
patronage networks.”
I agree with that assessment. I cited the case of the
Kaliwa Dam project, originally an integrated PPP but later converted to hybrid
PPP by the Duterte administration upon the lobbying of China capital (China
Eximbank) and contractors. Now Filipino taxpayers are indebted to China by at
least P18B in this project alone when there should be no foreign loan if the
original integrated PPP scheme was allowed.
I am not familiar how China companies, private and
state-owned, deal with N. Korea enterprises but from various reports of how
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has trapped several poor countries to
huge debt, it is safe to assume that N. Korea economy is controlled and
restricted by China.
So a successful N. Korea transition to VN-like economy
will see a good and promising outlook for the region and the world in at least
three ways: (1) Soon Starbucks, McDonald’s, Marriott, Google, Apple and other
American brands, also Toyota, Hyundai, Samsung and other Asian and global
brands will be in N. Korea and its 26M consumers. (2) S. Korea with 51M
consumers can then reduce its defense spending and use more public resources
for inter-Korean industrialization, and (3) a N. Korea-ASEAN FTA may not be farfetched
as KJU has become more familiar and comfortable with VN and Singapore.
See also:
BWorld 295, Growth and electric cooperatives, February 24, 2019
BWorld 296, Mandatory fare discount as socialistic policy, March 01, 2019
BWorld 297, The economics of coal, March 03, 2019
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