Government and Taxes: August 2021

Sunday, August 29, 2021

BWorld 502, My whole family got COVID

* My article in BusinessWorld last August 23, 2021.

On Aug. 10, I and our elder daughter got unwell. No fever but body pains. The next day, the symptoms continued, I began to suspect COVID symptoms and I traced back where the virus may have come from.

On Aug. 8 I went to the public market in Makati to buy food. I have been doing this for the past 17 months, so it is possible but not strong plausible reason.

On Aug. 10 and the previous days, I did my usual routine for the last 17 months — get direct sunlight for a minimum of 10 minutes, a maximum of 25 minutes, a day, the sun directly hitting my skin and head. Plus walk our dog two kilometers a day on average except when it is raining and stormy. It is possible that I got the virus while doing the usual daily round.

On Aug. 6, my wife got her first dose of the Pfizer vaccine. My doctor friend at the Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC PH) and former Department of Health Undersecretary Dr. Jade del Mundo briefly explained viral shedding to me:

“Viral shedding is the release of a virus after a viral infection, such as SARS-CoV-2. People shed the virus through the respiratory secretions when they sneeze, talk or even while socializing… The Pfizer vaccine is an mRNA vaccine which contains the genetic material to code for the spike protein. The problem is these spike proteins produced are shed or spread through the saliva or sputum or the air breathed out by a person so it causes those near the vaccinated person to be infected.”

It is possible or not possible that such viral shedding happened in our house. My wife has a comorbidity, she has hypertension. Nonetheless, all of us later had symptoms, mild to moderate. The two girls have had short bouts of fever and they were gone after a day or two.

I am the most senior in the house — I am 58 years old already — and have experienced many symptoms. No fever, but I have shortness of breath every time I go down to pee and come back to the room, body pains, cough with phlegm. My appetite is not good — I have to force myself to finish my meal within one to one and half hours. It has been psychologically stressful, physically painful.

The Makati City Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit (CESU) came to our house on Aug. 15, and took swab tests from my wife and our two daughters. The results came out on Aug. 18 — all three of them were positive. Stress in the house worsened because I was not swabbed, not vaccinated, and must isolate alone in the room upstairs. What about our food? Supplements? (I was swabbed by CESU about three days ago and am waiting for the results. I just assume that I was positive as of swab day, Aug 20.)

TEARS OF HUMILITY

The answer came much sooner than my worries. First to send food was my sister Marycris who also lives in Makati. Then my kumare, Jo Ferrer-Fernandez, who also brought along her sister, pediatrician Dr. Marriel Ferrer de la Reyna, to give medical advice for the two girls.

Then the big surprise. My friends from UP Sapul — they devised among themselves who will take care of our daily meals, lunch to dinner, for at least one week. Lots of food was coming in, more than what we could finish. Super super thanks to UP Sapul friends Boye Quiambao, Kris Cabrera, Grace Mendoza, Da Alejandrino-Short, Winnie Alvarez, Mel Manalaysay, Jopay Payongayong, Percy and Abet Abesamis, Jim Asuncion, Norman Roxas, Ernie Urbano, Kiko Magno.

I have non-biological siblings here in Manila, the Millora family. My elder sister, Dr. Ma. Judea Millora, is my main physician, plus Dr. Homer Lim, new President of the CDC PH. My younger brother, Dr. Vvon Millora, co-owns some private hospitals in Cavite and was worried and offered to take me in despite the long queue of COVID patients should I really need to be confined.

Then there are support advice from other CDC PH doctors and friends like Dr. Iggy Agbayani, lots of medicines and supplements from Gigi Bautista and Eli Abela, lots of Vit. C, D, Azithromycin, zinc, aspirin, Ant Tart (antimonium tartaricum — used in homeopathy), etc.

I have been in tears — big solid tears of humility and gratitude — as I look at all the support that I have received for my family and friends. Then I have friends, former UP Narra dormmates, waiting to help anytime I sound the alarm.

MY MEDICINES AND SUPPLEMENTS

Dr. Homer Lim gave me these prescriptions: ivermectin, 15 mg/tablet, 2x a day; doxyclycline, 100 mg/tablet, 2x a day; Vit. C with zinc; Vit. D3, 5,000 iu; melatonin, 3mg/tab, 2 tablets at bed time; Aspirin, 100 mg/tab; budesonide, 160 mcg (Symbicort Turbohaler).

Dr. Ma. Judea Millora sent me a hydrogen peroxide nebulizer that she herself mixed with guidance from Dr. Lim. I felt better after each nebulizer session. Ate Dea also sent me a sure-fire medicine vs. possible lung scarring, serrapeptase, to be taken on empty stomach once a day.

The reason why it took me long to recover is because I did not follow the treatment on the dot. Meaning, the medicines that I should take at 7 a.m. should be taken at 7 a.m., not 9 a.m. or 12 noon. Or medicines that I should take twice a day I must take twice a day and not once or thrice because I forgot to keep track.

That is why proper professional medical advice is necessary for the patients even if the medicines and supplements are available.

APPEAL TO DOH AND THE PRESIDENT

I will say that the ivermectin plus the various medicines and immune boosters did help a lot in allowing me to survive without the need for hospitalization. As of this writing, Aug. 23, the body pains have significantly eased, I have only a mild cough today, no more shortness of breathing, the oxymeter stable at 95-96, I can now finish one big plate of food at a meal. But Doc Iggy Agbayani still cautions me to avoid sweet drinks and food, even bananas.

My appeal to the Secretary of Health Francisco Duque III and President Rodrigo R. Duterte, is to really consider the use of ivermectin as an early treatment for patients trying to recover at home. The vaccines sure can help as they are also products of endless medical innovation and science. But an old, proven for 40 years, medicine like ivermectin has big potential as an early treatment and a way to avoid the hospitalization of so many patients. Think of the hundreds of new serious and critical COVID cases that are brought in hospitals that could have been treated at home instead.

Finally, more vaccination and more cases.

I make a short follow up of my previous column, https://www.bworldonline.com/more-vaccination-more-cases-why/, from July 19, and https://www.bworldonline.com/vaccination-rates-and-kkk-on-june-12/, from June 7.
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Weekend Fun 79, Ang Ano, by PRRD

These memes were circulating since last Friday :-)

In three days, "ber" months or "Philippines Christmas season" will be with us. The most famous Filipino Christmas singer, Joe Mari Chan (JMC), his voice and songs can be heard in ALL malls, grocery stores in the country, especially until 2019. "Ber 2020" is different, also "Ber 2021", so here are some memes.

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See also:
Weekend Fun 75, Lockdown, inflation, climate memes, April 02, 2021
Weekend Fun 76, Drunk politicians and other professionals, April 25, 2021
Weekend Fun 78, Pres-VP pairs for 2022, June 13, 2021.

Covid 54, Dr. Jody Dalmacion on vaccine, Ivermectin, other Covid treatments

I repost here two recent interviews of Dr. Jody Dalmacion, retired faculty member of UP College of Medicine (UPCM). Then her recent fb posts. Brave lady, bow.

IVERMECTIN IS A REPURPOSE DRUG - DR. JODY DALMACION
Aug 10, 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8-j0RAsw9s

CDC Ph Weekly Huddle: Prof Jody Dalmacion on Vaccine Efficacy 08 14 21
Published August 16, 2021
https://rumble.com/vl7zbk-cdc-ph-weekly-huddle-prof-jody-dalmacion-on-vaccine-efficacy-08-14-21.html
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July 23, 2021

Microbiology 101 and Ethics of Medical Communication 101

Ever wondered why there is no vaccine for HIV, a RNA virus like SARS Cov2? Vaccines will not likely work for RNA viruses like HIV and SARS CoV2 because these viruses can mutate very rapidly and render any vaccine useless sooner than you can come up with another one. To quote Dr. McCullough known Texas cardiologist, researcher and prescriber of ivermectin and other drugs for covid 19 - “By pushing mass vaccination, governments have created evolutionary pressure on sars cov 2 (to mutate more rapidly to new variants). Without vaccines, mutation by RNA viruses occur following a more natural rate and maybe to less virulent strains.

Case in point, in Israel - “nearly 40% of new covid patients were vaccinated- compared to just 1% who had been infected previously”.

At present, HIV is successfully controlled with multi drug therapy (HAART) and Covid 19 can likewise be controlled by the use of drugs. Cases of covid 19 have recovered from treatment with ivermectin, O2 inhalation, antibiotics, vit D3, ascorbic acid, steroid, or fluovoxamine even remdesivir if given at the right time and patients accept risk of acute renal failure or septic shock from it. Proof? Go ask the survivors. For long haulers, fluvoxamine, IVM, statin and H1 blockers have been used.

Doctors who are responsible and patient-centered should spend less time posting misinformation and one sided findings against ivermectin or any drugs. Please do the Filipinos and other doctors a favor, post correct information or data, NOT OPINIONS. Post data and findings on the benefit versus harm of the Covid 19 vaccines instead of parroting self serving news from drug companies. Much better, push or conduct more researches on drugs or interventions to curb the repeated surges of covid 19 cases from new variants. Help look for strategies to decrease viral transmission aside from imposing lockdowns that are more harmful to the health of people, the environment and socioeconomic conditions of the country. The local Specialists in Infectious Diseases are not by default experts on covid 19 but they should be experts on infections like TB, dengue, HIV, leptospirosis, hepatitis which are currently being neglected in our country during the pandemic. About 74 Filipinos die every day of TB and reporting of cases has gone down significantly during the pandemic. For those interested in treating covid 19, be humble and open your minds to more possibilities through researches and stop acting as self declared experts of covid 19. Even one of the developers of the mrna vaccines, Dr. Robert Malone said that real scientists work on hypothesis NOT Truth. The majority of experts now agree that the direction for controlling SARS CoV2 more effectively seem to be by multidrug therapy, the same way it is being done for HIV.

July 26

Dr. Salvana posted a patient with negative RT PCR for clearance but since noted sniffling, he ordered a covid ag test which turned positive. First- you cant compare a test done 3 days ago to a different type of test you did today, RT PCR is based on NAAT while covid antigen test is immunoassay; NAAT is still the gold standard for the DIAGNOSIS of covid because it is more sensitive and specific than covid ag; CDC has interim guidance for Covid Ag for screening in congregation but not recommended for screening asymptomatics thus accompanying questionnaire on symptoms is advised by CDC, the covid Ag positive predictive value may be 81.4% which is the probability that the patient really has the disease thus 18% can be false positive, if patient has flu and flu is commonly cause by coronaviruses, is there a cross reactivity with sars cov2 that can give false postive result with covid Ag test? and lastly I ask the good doctor, what is your diagnosis?

August 3

What is the legal and moral basis for doctors of PGH and other hospitals asking for waiver from patients who want to use IVM?? Can someone please enlighten me?

August 5

To the DOH, the Philippine Pediatric Society and all pediatricians before you decide on vaccinating the Filipino children - please remember the Dengvaxia disaster. May I share my commentary on Dengvaxia with concepts on NNH and NNT published in the Journal of Tropical Diseases - “Should hospitalization be an outcome for vaccine research? “Unlike others, I never give an opinion on something I just read in google. Paging PPS, PSMID, FDA, Policy Bureau of DOH, PCHRD etc to share your own studies or at least systematic review of mrna vaccines for covid 19 in children. PLEASE do not merely cite fo reign studies or WHO, consider the reality of the Phil Health care system, sociodemographics, cost effectiveness (opportunity cost) and the dismal economic status of the country. I may have missed RCTs on the efficacy and safety of anti covid vaccine for children that you have the privilege to have.Do tell. What is the evidence or data?

August 13

My reply to the UPCM Pharmacology was canceled because it allegedly goes against community standards. This is a cowardly act of silencing the opinions of others. I am challenging even the Director general of the FDA to a debate on what vaccine adverse reaction reporting means, risk: benefit ratio assessment and methodologies of causality determination. I am also accusing FB of abuse of discretion and tyranny. You shd be ashamed of calling yourself as following “standards” when you are actually just goons. But the truth will always prevail. Cheers.

August 13

Dear FB “ community standards” maraming maraming Salamat for confirming that I am making an impact with my statements on the vaccine by removing my post. It is a badge of honor. Salamat po ulit . I am honored 😉

August 20

Is UP PGH anti vaxxer? The covid admissions in PGH of 265 covid of which 187 were un vaxxed and 79 vaxxed looks unfavorable for the covid vaccines.

Why?

In a population that’s 11% vaccinated, if the vaccines have no efficacy whatsoever - meaning the vaccinated have the same risk of being hospitalized as the unvaccinated - you would expect only 11% of the 265 hospitalized covid to be vaccinated which is 29 but 53 completely vaccinated got hospitalized!! (O ayan hindi ko na isinama partial. ) Based on the pfizer trial , only 5% of the vaccinated runs the risk of being hospitalized. So only 5% of the 11% of the 265 or 1.45 vaxxed persons should be in the PGH hospitalized cohort. Why 53?

Which also means that the unvaccinated are doing much better since 89% or 235 or 209 but there are only 187 unvaxxed!!!

Of the assumed severe hospitalized covid and progressed to the ICU, 9/187 or 4.8% were unvaxxed while 2/53 or 3.8% were vaccinated. So the vaccinated had only a 1% advantage over the unvaxxed. As for intubation unvaccinated 6/7 or 67%; vaccinated, 1/2 or 50%, the latter having a 17% advantage.

This is not surprising if they only understood the pfizer trial. But hey, they also misinterpreted Lopez Medina IVM trial as of good quality. The attributable risk reduction in the pfizer trial with vaccine is less than 1% and the numbers needed to vaccinated is about 135 . Relative risk reduction from the pfizer study (95%)is only used to describe results in a clinical trial ie risk of covid ,8/21k or 0.038% in relation to the placebo or background risk of covid which is only 162/21K or about 0.77% . But for public health interventions, ARR and NNV are more meaningful because it gives you the probable effect of the intervention in the population.

Back to PGH data - The sample size is is too small and so many other factors weigh in. Thus warning on the possible overgeneralization. But PGH is actually conveying a very bad message about Vaccine 😩😩 .

Dr. Dalmacion’s Rejoinder to the UP Manila statement Re: Safety of Covid-19 Vaccines
August 18, 2021
https://romeoquijanomd.net/2021/08/18/dr-dalmacions-rejoinder-to-the-up-manila-statement-re-safety-of-covid-19-vaccines/

Godofreda V. Dalmacion MD, epidemiologist, Retired Professor, Dept. of Pharmacology, College of Medicine, University of the Philippines Manila (published with her permission)

Apologies to my former colleagues at the Dept. of Pharmacology and Toxicology but in the interest of fairness and truth – I really have to react to your very bold statement that the benefit of the COVID-19 vaccines outweigh their risk. It was said so confidently that it gives me the creeps without seeing any estimates.

The safety of the vaccines especially with the new platform remains uncertain and contentious (1). Adverse event (AE) is a function of number and duration of exposure. Why? Because toxicities can occur after a latent period and the effects of epigenetics play a role such as in male infertility, autoimmune disorders, cancers and other mutagenic effects. With the COVID-19 vaccines, AEs vary based on age, e.g. clotting more in young females and myocarditis and pericarditis among young men 14-24 years old. Please refer to VAERS.

Secondly, vaccine-related toxicities are questions of excess risks, for example the background incidence of pericarditis is almost 0 in the normal young, so even 1 case after vaccination is significant and morally unacceptable.

Third, ALL the COVID-19 vaccines are under EUA and still under Phase 3 and thus incompletely studied. The Sample size of RCTs i.e. Pfizer are underpowered to determine efficacy, more so safety. Multi-country studies such as Pfizer’s vaccine trials are methodologically flawed because the risk for COVID-19 across different countries are different.

Fourth, Pfizer study published in NEJM has only 18556 / 21720 evaluable cases under the vaccine arm because 100 withdrew, 304 did not receive dose 2 , 62 were lost to follow-up, 28 had AEs, 2 withdrew and 1 died etc etc– all unfavorable information.

Fifth. The attributable risk reduction from vaccination based on the Pfizer study is only 0.733%. Epidemiologists planning on a public health intervention do not use RRR (relative risk reduction) but ARR (attributable risk reduction) and NNV (number needed to vaccinate). It is self-serving and misleading to use 95% relative risk reduction to describe the efficacy of the vaccine. RRR only compares the reduction of risk of one who got the vaccine relative to the CONTROL IN THE STUDY, NOT the population.

Lastly, DOH data itself shows a Case Fatality Rate of 1.74 % and cases that are mild and asymptomatic account for 96.5% of cases . Good Lord, maski hindi ka mag-vaccine ang baba ng risk for severe disease and hospitalizations mo from the infections! Thus the threshold for AE from the vaccines should be very, very low and the clotting, neurologic, cardiovascular and hematologic adverse effects are theoretically unacceptable. Meantime, where are the cases overwhelming the hospital capacity coming from if only 4.5% of cases based on the DOH tracker is essentially severe? Maybe the Department of Pharmacology can explain the metrics and release a full discussion of their benefit:risk ratio calculation.

To all PLEASE do not reduce discussion of alternative opinions TO AN ANTI-VAXXER ISSUE because it is cowardly and unprofessional. Thanks .

1) Jiang, S. Don’t rush to deploy COVID-19 vaccines and drugs without sufficient safety guarantees. Nature. (16 March 2020)

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Saturday, August 28, 2021

BWorld 501, Growth and long-term energy supply

* My column in BusinessWorld, August 16, 2021.

The 11.8% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter (Q2) 2021 was celebrated with fanfare by the government and the ruling political party as “proof” that they are doing the right thing in guiding the economy out of prolonged recession. But this is not a good way to look at it.

One, there is the base effect. The GDP contraction in Q2 2020 was so deep, -17%, that any mild increase this year can lead to high percentage increase.

Two, the actual GDP level at 2018 constant prices: Q2 2018, P4.72 trillion; Q2 2019, P4.99 trillion; Q2 2020, P4.14 trillion; Q2 2021, P4.63 trillion. So, the actual flow of goods and services in Q2 2021 is even lower than Q2 2018.

Three, the GDP level by semester 1: first semester 2021’s P8.886 trillion is even lower than first semester 2018’s P8.936 trillion. And household consumption, which comprises 74% of total GDP, and investments, which make up 19% of GDP, suffered deep contractions in value (see Table 1).

On June 30, it was reported in BusinessWorld that, “ERC alters basis for triggering price caps to 72-hour average” or from five to only three days. As regular readers of this column notice, price controls, price caps, price dictatorships, are among the policies that turn me off. Goods and services available at varying prices and qualities are ideal for customers, very pro-consumer. Cheap but not available goods are anti-consumer.

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is misguided in keeping low the secondary price cap so that new peaking plants will hardly be built. They also added regional secondary caps of high voltage direct current (HVDC).

The ERC reasoned out that despite the low secondary price cap, there are still thousands of megawatts (MW) of committed and indicative power plantscoming in. But the ERC is silent about the fact that even in lockdown 2021 there were still red-yellow alerts, and even an actually rotating blackout last June 1. Meaning that supply capacity is thin and inadequate.

Ensuring long-term sustainability of growth in the country needs ample energy supply (see Table 2).

The good thing among the committed projects until 2027 is that coal will still play a dominant role as it is cheap and easily available. Natural gas comes next in the form of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) and it is also good, provided that no favoritism be given to it like the mandatory off-take provision of Malampaya gas.

For the indicative projects, while there are 4,449 MW from coal and 4,700 MW from natural gas, the bulk of the increase will really come from solar, hydro, and wind.

And that is where big problems will show up someday. Intermittent and unstable energy that will require non-cheap batteries aspiring to be the dominant energy source in the country will push up electricity generation prices, and push transmission prices up as the grid system operator must get more ancillary services.

Market-based power supply-demand has been distorted by various agendas. But some provisions like the Retail Competition and Open Access under the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (better known as EPIRA) RA 9136, and Green Energy Option Program under Renewable Energy law RA 9513 also drive this high demand for the intermittent. So long as people will walk the talk, and pay higher without seeking subsidies from the rest of electricity consumers, this will be fine.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the Director for Communication and Corporate Affairs, Alas Oplas & Co. CPAs nonoyoplas@alasoplascpas.com
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Thursday, August 26, 2021

Covid 53, More scientific studies on vax safety/non-safety

Some materials I encountered recently, should be helpful to people reading on their own.
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(1) Study: Fully Vaccinated Healthcare Workers Carry 251 Times Viral Load, Pose Threat to Unvaccinated Patients, Co-Workers

A preprint paper by the prestigious Oxford University Clinical Research Group, published Aug. 10 in The Lancet, found vaccinated individuals carry 251 times the load of COVID-19 viruses in their nostrils compared to the unvaccinated.

By Peter A. McCullough, M.D., MPH 8/23/2021
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/vaccinated-healthcare-workers-threat-unvaccinated-patients-co-workers/

(2) Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant Among Vaccinated Healthcare Workers, Vietnam
31 Pages Posted: 10 Aug 2021
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3897733

Nguyen Van Vinh Chau, Nghiem My Ngoc, Vo Minh Quang, Dao Bach Khoa, Nguyen Thanh Phong, Le Mau Toan, Bui Thi Ton That, Huynh Phuong Thao, Tran Nguyen Phuong Thao, Vo Trong Vuong, Tran Thi Thanh Tam, Nguyen Huynh Thanh Truc, Ngo Tan Tai, Ho The Bao, Huynh Thi Kim Nhung, Nguyen Thi Ngoc Minh, Nguyen Thi My Tien, Nguy Cam Huy, Dinh Nguyen Huy Man, Dinh Thi Bich Ty, Le Thi Tam Uyen, Tran Nguyen Hoang Tu, Nguyen Thanh Dung, Le Manh Hung, Nguyen Thanh Truong

– all from Hospital for Tropical Diseases

Lam Anh Nguyet, Nguyen Thi Han Ny, Nguyen Thi Thu Hong, Nguyen Thi Kim Tuyen, Voong Vinh Phat, Le Nguyen Truc Nhu, Marc Choisy, Nguyen To Anh, Lam Minh Yen, Tran Tan Thanh, Guy Thwaites, Le Van Tan

-- all from Hospital of Tropical Diseases - Oxford University Clinical Research Unit

OUCRU COVID-19 Research Group

Abstract

Background: Data on breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infections are limited.

Methods: We studied breakthrough infections among healthcare workers of a major infectious diseases hospital in Vietnam. We collected demographics, vaccination history and results of PCR diagnosis alongside clinical data. We measured SARS-CoV-2 (neutralizing) antibodies at diagnosis, and at week 1, 2 and 3 after diagnosis. We sequenced the viruses using ARTIC protocol.

Findings: Between 11th–25th June 2021 (week 7–8 after dose 2), 69 healthcare workers were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. 62 participated in the clinical study. 49 were (pre)symptomatic with one requiring oxygen supplementation. All recovered uneventfully. 23 complete-genome sequences were obtained. They all belonged to the Delta variant, and were phylogenetically distinct from the contemporary Delta variant sequences obtained from community transmission cases, suggestive of ongoing transmission between the workers. Viral loads of breakthrough Delta variant infection cases were 251 times higher than those of cases infected with old strains detected between March-April 2020. Time from diagnosis to PCR negative was 8–33 days (median: 21). Neutralizing antibody levels after vaccination and at diagnosis of the cases were lower than those in the matched uninfected controls. There was no correlation between vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody levels and viral loads or the development of symptoms.

Interpretation: Breakthrough Delta variant infections are associated with high viral loads, prolonged PCR positivity, and low levels of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies, explaining the transmission between the vaccinated people. Physical distancing measures remain critical to reduce SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission.

(3) Does the FDA think these data justify the first full approval of a covid-19 vaccine?
Peter Doshi, senior editor, The BMJ
August 23, 2021

The FDA should demand adequate, controlled studies with long term follow up, and make data publicly available, before granting full approval to covid-19 vaccines.

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/23/does-the-fda-think-these-data-justify-the-first-full-approval-of-a-covid-19-vaccine/

Prior to the preprint, my view, along with a group of around 30 clinicians, scientists, and patient advocates, was that there were simply too many open questions about all covid-19 vaccines to support approving any this year. The preprint has, unfortunately, addressed very few of those open questions, and has raised some new ones.

I reiterate our call: “slow down and get the science right—there is no legitimate reason to hurry to grant a license to a coronavirus vaccine.”

FDA should be demanding that the companies complete the two year follow-up, as originally planned (even without a placebo group, much can still be learned about safety). They should demand adequate, controlled studies using patient outcomes in the now substantial population of people who have recovered from covid. And regulators should bolster public trust by helping ensure that everyone can access the underlying data.

(4) Exacerbation of hyperglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes after vaccination for COVID19: Report of three cases
Abha Mishra, Amerta Ghosh,∗ Koel Dutta, Kanika Tyagi, and Anoop Misra
Published online 2021 May 25. doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2021.05.024
PMCID: PMC8143905 PMID: 34186339
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8143905/

Discussion

Common side effects that have been reported with the Covishield™ vaccine include fatigue, chills, headache, fever, flu-like symptoms. Less common side effects include abdominal pain, enlarged lymph nodes, itchy skin, or rash. However, increase in blood pressure, or changes in blood glucose levels in diabetic or non-diabetic individuals have not been mentioned in the vaccine trial data [2]…

Overall, it appears that vaccine is a likely cause of sudden increase in blood glucose levels. Such a phenomenon, of mild to moderate elevation of blood glucose levels following vaccination has been theoretically discussed [1] but not described previously. In one case report, hyperosmolar hyperglycemic state following vaccination has been reported following Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine [3]…

(5) Horowitz: Israeli government data shows natural immunity from infection much stronger than vaccine-induced immunity

DANIEL HOROWITZ July 14, 202
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-israeli-government-data-shows-natural-immunity-from-infection-much-stronger-than-vaccine-induced-immunity#toggle-gdpr

Thus, dealing with variants like "Delta" by focusing solely on risk-fraught injections with questionable effectiveness is the most counterproductive strategy ever. The U.K.'s very thorough data updated last week shows just a 0.2% case fatality rate for Delta, and only 0.03% for those under the age of 50, lower than any other variant. If it's more transmissible, it's less deadly. Natural infection is the only phenomena that will ultimately burn out all variants, and the entire focus should be on getting seniors and other vulnerable people early treatment the minute they feel symptoms and even a prophylactic regimen of ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine when appropriate.

Just imagine if all of the trillions spent on lockdowns and vaccines had been used for cheap anti-viral and anti-inflammatory treatments to be used outside the hospitals. It's the only thing that hasn't been tried, because there is nothing to be gained but saving lives.

(6) Ten reasons why the jab must never be mandatory
By Abir Ballan August 21, 2021
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/ten-reasons-why-the-jab-must-never-be-mandatory/

9. Herd immunity can be reached through a combination of natural infection and vaccination. Natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is broad and long-lasting – more so than vaccine-induced immunity, especially in combating variants. Recovery from infection prevents serious illness if reinfected. It is not necessary to vaccinate the entire planet for the ‘greater good’ of society.

We face two scenarios. Either the vaccines work, delivering protection to the vaccinated and eliminating the claim that everyone needs to be vaccinated. Or the vaccines don’t work, and therefore no one should get vaccinated. On both counts, vaccine passports are a pointless ‘public health’ tool that will undermine trust in the medical profession and vaccination programmes. They seem to serve economic, financial, political and ideological agendas. Most fundamentally, they are unethical. They swing the gate wide open for totalitarian rule through a digital social credit system.

(7) Large-scale study of antibody titer decay following BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine or SARS-CoV-2 infection
Ariel Israel, Yotam Shenhar, Ilan Green, Eugene Merzon, Avivit Golan-Cohen, Alejandro A Schäffer, Eytan Ruppin, Shlomo Vinker, Eli Magen

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262111

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262111v1

Abstract

Background Immune protection following either vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2 decreases over time.

Objective To determine the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies following administration of two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine, or SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated individuals.

Methods Antibody titers were measured between January 31, 2021, and July 31, 2021 in two mutually exclusive groups: i) vaccinated individuals who received two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine and had no history of previous infection with COVID-19 and ii) SARS-CoV-2 convalescents who had not received the vaccine.

Results A total of 2,653 individuals fully vaccinated by two doses of vaccine during the study period and 4,361 convalescent patients were included. Higher SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody titers were observed in vaccinated individuals (median 1581 AU/mL IQR [533.8-5644.6]) after the second vaccination, than in convalescent individuals (median 355.3 AU/mL IQR [141.2-998.7]; p<0.001). In vaccinated subjects, antibody titers decreased by up to 40% each subsequent month while in convalescents they decreased by less than 5% per month. Six months after BNT162b2 vaccination 16.1% subjects had antibody levels below the seropositivity threshold of <50 AU/mL, while only 10.8% of convalescent patients were below <50 AU/mL threshold after 9 months from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Conclusions This study demonstrates individuals who received the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine have different kinetics of antibody levels compared to patients who had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, with higher initial levels but a much faster exponential decrease in the first group.

(8) Why you shouldn't rush to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot before it's your turn
Health experts warn not to jump the gun -- or line -- in taking a third dose.
By Sasha Pezenik and Dr. Jess Dawson
21 August 2021, 23:16
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/rush-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shot-turn/story?id=79526299&cid=social_twitter_abcn

Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital, is skeptical of boosters for the broader population so soon.

"The risks are unknown, and the benefits are unknown. I can't, as a responsible physician, give someone advice, when I haven't been able to weigh those two things," Faust said, cautioning against taking a "shot in the dark."

(9) The Vaccinated Are Worried and Scientists Don’t Have Answers
By Kristen V Brown and Rebecca Torrence
August 21, 2021, 5:00 PM GMT+8 Updated on August 22, 2021, 10:31 PM GMT+8
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-21/science-can-t-keep-up-with-virus-creating-worry-for-vaccinated

“Anecdotes tell us what the data can’t: Vaccinated people appear to be getting the coronavirus at a surprisingly high rate. But exactly how often isn’t clear, nor is it certain how likely they are to spread the virus to others.

Though it is evident vaccination still provides powerful protection against the virus, there’s growing concern that vaccinated people may be more vulnerable to serious illness than previously thought.”

(10) Ran Israeli @RanIsraeli
Aug 24 2021 Are we doomed?

Israel's Prime Minister is crazy (or an idiot):

"People who received two vaccine shots walk around feeling like they are protected... they don't understand that the second vaccine has faded against the "Delta" - they must quickly get vaccinated with the 3rd dose!".

(11) Ron Paul @RonPaul
Aug 24 2021
Even Mainstream Media Is Now Asking Big Questions About The Vaccines
https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1429873193490296835?

(12) Covid: What’s the best way to top up our immunity?
James Gallagher Health and science correspondent
22/08/2021
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58270098

“Prof Adam Finn, a government vaccine adviser, said over-vaccinating people, when other parts of the world had none, was "a bit insane, it's not just inequitable, it's stupid".

Each time you're exposed, the immune system gets a little bit stronger, and this continues until old age, when the immune system starts to fail and the infections become a problem again.

"This isn't proven, but it could be a lot cheaper and simpler to let that happen than spend the whole time immunising people," said Prof Finn, who warns we could end up "locked into a cycle of boosting" without seeing if it was necessary.”

(13) Ultra-Vaxxed Israel’s Crisis Is a Dire Warning to America
“I don’t want to frighten you,” Israel’s COVID czar Dr. Salman Zarka told parliament this week. “But… unfortunately, the numbers don’t lie.”
Noga Tarnopolsky Updated Aug. 24, 2021 7:51AM ET / Published Aug. 24, 2021 3:38AM ET
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ultra-vaccinated-israels-debacle-is-a-dire-warning-to-america

“It is a combination of waning immunity, so that inoculated people get reinfected, and at the same time the very transmissible Delta variant,” (Sheba Hospital Professor Galia Rahav) Rahav said, adding that Israelis lacked the discipline to revert to mask usage as the numbers began rising. “But it is not an Israeli problem,” she added. “It is everywhere.”

(14) From Dr. Iggy Agbayan
CDC Ph, 26 August 2021

My thoughts on what and why Science evidence show COVID-19 vaccines can’t be made mandatory to all Filipinos as opposed to recommended only to a cohort of COVID-19 susceptible people

1) It doesn’t work everytime or fully as initial real world findings show. (Some have weak immune response like the elderly and those with immune system disease)

2) It is dangerous or deadly to some individuals with allergy, underlying illness and other still unknown issues that can only be determined with long term observations

3) COVID-19 vaccination will likely be repeated at least annually based on Pharmaceutical industry information and it is too expensive and impractical to enforce with our country’s resources for health. We must also consider the other health problems that may be more life threatening to even more Filipinos like TB, Dengue, Heart disease and Diabetes when we allot a budget to vaccination to a single disease.

4) The Philippine Constitution ensures that our human rights must be respected and any exception made against this must be beyond reasonable doubt. The case of our country’s health emergency status is relative, debatable, moving and is highly dependent on many other factors that can change it. It can be managed through other means that do not equate to the entire countries surrender of individual rights. We have choices that are still untapped by this government such as (a)improving primary health care (b)increasing and improving infectious disease treatment facilities and health personnel (c) emphasis on correcting or treating diseases or comorbids that lead to worse outcomes for COVID-19 (d) maximizing methods that improve immune response to respiratory and infectious illness (e) banning smoking and regulating unhealthy foods like sugar, processed carbs and highly processed oils (f) minimize regulation and/or fast track potential treatment and preventive drugs for as long as they are proven safe within practical parameters for a health emergency.
--------------------

Energy 152, BWorld Insights on RE and Nuclear; Global news on renewed coal, gas demand

I am reposting some comments during the "BWorld Insights on RE and Nuclear" yesterday, August 25, 2021.

Comments:

Mark Cojuangco: Nuclear has already saved > 2 million lives.

All solar wind proponents here are innocently or intentionally trojan horses for the decadal entrenchment of GAS in the PH.

Distributed nuclear gets rid of the need for massive grid transmission improvement.

Why did not invite me ?

So many factual errors stated here which I could have called out.

The unreliability caused by wind solar intermittency is favorable for the electricity market to be gamed !

It is a bargain for that price ! Thats just a little more than a greenfields coal or gas plant. Each GW of nuclear avoids 600M US$ every year of coal or gas importation.

Ian Kester Fancubit: For Dr. Arcilla, I am a mechanical engineer graduate this year and I know that nuclear energy has a great potential. Utilizing this energy for a developing country will help us grow and further grow until 2050. My question to Dr. Arcilla is that which provinces is potentially in your watchlist can a new nuclear power plant be built because I visited BNPP last 2018 and it is now being used as a museum for future Filipino engineers how nuclear energy works and according to news articles, it would take almost billion dollars just to renovate BNPP and bring it to operation. Thank you sir for your conviction and I hope future engineers like me will consider and realize the nuclear energy position in boosting our Philiippine economy.

Mark Cojuangco: Chernobyl had no containment. Containment is premitigation for any nuclear incident including meltdowns! Coal and Gas pollution kills yens of thousands every year.

BusinessWorld: Mr. Layug: We're hoping that in five years' time, we can depend on offshore wind to provide additional capacity and add to our renewable energy targets.

Arnulfo Robles: There must be wrong somewhere even as RE is given preference: in energy policy, dispatch, subsidy, etc. but still utilization and capacity supply is on the downside as we move along. We cannot be blaming always fossil fuel sources (e.g. coal, oil, gas) for this dilemma as the country needs urgent energy supply stability moving forward.

Mark Cojuangco: Both!

We can keep BNPP in mothballs until attitudes change.

America’s newest nuclear plant, Wattsbar 2, was initiated 6 years prior to BNPP.

It was halted at 60% for decades, until TVA decided to complete it in ~ 2009.

It was commissioned in 2016, and granted a 40 year operating license. It is entitled to 2x 20 year extensions for a total of 80 years.

BNPP is a much more modern plant that Wattsbar2.

BusinessWorld: Mr. Francia: The new emerging technologies [on renewable energy] should be looked at as an industry. We should not just focus on the traditional.

Mark Cojuangco: All solar wind proponents here are innocently or intentionally trojan horses for the decadal entrenchment of GAS in the PH.

Distributed nuclear gets rid of the need for massive grid transmission improvement.… See More

BusinessWorld: Mr. Layug: We're hoping that in five years' time, we can depend on offshore wind to provide additional capacity and add to our renewable energy targets.

Mark Cojuangco: Exclude the < 50 mortality caused by Chernobyl, which had no containment, and nuclear’s alltime mortality is ZERO !

Joemar M. Aquino: Very informative and good discussion in both RE solar and nuclear power plants etc.

Ian Kester Fancubit: For me sir, the shift to RE is not viable to us, though prices have dampened right now, the copper and nikl prices will continue to rise due to the electric vehicles boom this decade and it will eventually put off RE to more prices unless the shortages for copper will be addressed as demand grows year per year. Coal and gas plants is now being targeted and closed in most countries since NET ZERO carbon commissions must be achieved until 2030. I think our heavy reliance in these energy sources should be lessened because of its critical carbon commissions contributing to global warming which bars investors to invest in these plants, and most investors shifting right now to RE and hopefully Nuclear as Dr. Arcilla have mentioned that Korea is building new nuclear power plants at UAE and the possibility and risk-reward ratio is more beneficial for our country than RE.

Nonoy Oplas: Thanks Caloy. Tell frankly Eric Francia and Jay Layug that they are just advancing their business and corporate agenda. Coal remains the cheapest, most stable, dispatchable energy but it has been overpoliticized, demonized. Small modular nuclear for big islands like Palawan, Negros, Mindoro, Masbate, etc. will be the next best solution.
-------------

Below, various news reports on renewed interests for gas and coal power.

(1) Clash of the Titans: Wind Power vs Coal Power
By Geoffrey Pohanka August 19, 2021
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/08/19/clash_of_the_titans_wind_power_vs_coal_power_790720.html

Since this is just an average, and that wind turbine power production could have actually been near zero during some portion of the month of July, it is possible at times that no number of wind turbines could replace the electricity generated by the coal power plant without sufficient battery back-up for at least part of the month. 3,764 wind turbines would also require 427 miles of mountain top, reaching all the way to Vermont. A battery backup system with a capacity for 10 days worth of July coal plant energy generation would cost nearly $90 million dollars.

Power plant longevity is also an important factor with regard to cost. The Mount Storm coal power plant began producing electricity 57 years ago in 1964. Some estimate wind power to have a 30-year life though the nearby Pinnacle wind project with its 23 turbines is having its blades and turbines replaced after only 10 years of operation and at a cost of $128 million dollars.

It is clear that wind power is not going to knock out coal power, at least not here at Mount Storm. Wind projects and other renewables are certainly landing punches as coal loses favor as a power source in this country.

(2) Emerging oil nations reject climate curbs on exploration, pursue rapid development
By Marianna Parraga and Luc Cohen, Sabrina Valle
August 20, 2021 12:50 AM PST
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/emerging-oil-nations-reject-climate-curbs-exploration-pursue-rapid-development-2021-08-19/

HOUSTON, Aug 19 (Reuters) - The world's newest oil-producing nations grabbed the spotlight at this week's Offshore Technology Conference with ambitious plans to tap oil and gas discoveries in a race against a global energy transition to lower-carbon fuels.

At the conference highlighting renewable and cleaner-burning fuels and investors moving bets away from fossil fuels, Brazil, Ghana, Guyana, and Suriname laid out agendas to pump massive oil and gas discoveries that could reshape their economies - if they can get them to market before values erode.

(3) California to Build Temporary Gas Plants to Avoid Blackouts
By Mark Chediak and Naureen S Malik
August 20, 2021, 6:07 AM GMT+8
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-19/california-to-build-temporary-gas-plants-to-avoid-blackouts

The California Department of Water Resources is in the process of procuring five temporary gas-fuelled generators that have individual capacities of 30 megawatts, said spokesman Ryan Endean. The units will be installed at existing power plants and are expected to be operating by the middle of September.

The move comes after California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency for the power grid on concern about supply shortages during hot summer evenings when solar production wanes. The order, issued last month, aimed to free up energy supplies and speed up power plant development to help avert blackouts. It also temporarily lifted air-quality rules.

(4) California to open 5 natural gas plants to avoid blackouts
by Shelby BrachoSaturday, August 21st 2021
https://kmph.com/news/local/california-to-open-5-natural-gas-plants-to-avoid-blackouts

(5) California: Curtailing Solar Power & Building Natural Gas Plants… Because…
Because “I don’t care who you are! That’s funny right there!” by David Middleton
25/08/2021
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/08/24/california-curtailing-solar-power-building-natural-gas-plants-because/

(6) China Is Planning to Build 43 New Coal-Fired Power Plants. Can It Still Keep Its Promises to Cut Emissions?

BY AMY GUNIA AUGUST 20, 2021 2:43 AM EDT
https://time.com/6090732/china-coal-power-plants-emissions/

China is planning to build 43 new coal-fired power plants and 18 new blast furnaces — equivalent to adding about 1.5% to its current annual emissions — according to a new report. The new projects were announced in the first half of this year despite the world’s largest polluter pledging to bring its emissions to a peak before 2030, and to make the country carbon neutral by 2060.

(7) Climate Doomed by Coal… Again
Guest “I don’t care who you are. That’s funny right there!” by David Middleton
26/08/2021
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/08/25/climate-doomed-by-coal-again/

(8) Coal Shows Its Staying Power as Economies Bounce Back
Surging electricity use and higher natural-gas prices are giving coal new life despite its environmental drawbacks
By Sarah McFarlane and Katherine Blunt July 7, 2021 5:33 am ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coal-shows-its-staying-power-as-economies-bounce-back-11625650381

(9) Coal is Back… For Now
By Hoppy Kercheval August 23, 2021 - 12:02 am
https://wvmetronews.com/2021/08/23/coal-is-back-for-now/

Appalachian thermal coal is averaging about $60 a ton, its highest point in two years. Met coal, which is used in making steel, is averaging $180 a ton at the mine, a three year high.

“The pricing is very high right now,” said West Virginia Coal Association President Chris Hamilton. “It is a tremendous boost for the industry.”

(10) Soaring demand for the world’s least-liked commodity sees thermal coal prices jump 106% this year
Sam Meredith THU, AUG 19 20211:19 AM EDTbUPDATED THU, AUG 19 20218:44 AM EDT
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/coal-prices-the-worlds-least-liked-commodity-sees-remarkable-rally.html

Australian thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has climbed 106% this year to more than $166 per metric ton, according to the latest weekly assessment by commodity price provider Argus.

The Newcastle weekly index, which stood at a 2020 low of $46.18 in early September, now appears to be closing in on an all-time high of $195.20 from July 2008.

The resurgence of thermal coal, which is burned to generate electricity, raises serious questions about the so-called “energy transition.”

Flashback:

Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them
James Hansen Sun 15 Feb 2009 00.01 GMT
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal

The government is expected to give the go-ahead to the coal-burning Kingsnorth power plant. Here, one of the world's foremost climate experts launches an excoriating attack on Britain's long love affair with the most polluting fossil fuel of all.
---------------

BWorld 500, 10 trends in mortality 2020 in the Philippines

* My article in BusinessWorld, August 09, 2021.

This is Part 2 of this column’s piece five months ago, “10 trends in mortality and spending economics” (March 23, https://www.bworldonline.com/10-trends-in-mortality-and-spending-economics/).

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the updated data last month on causes of death in 2020 and the results may be shocking for those who have been peddling the scary-alarming impact of COVID-19 in the country (see Table).

10 trends can be derived from the numbers related to COVID-19 and the strict lockdown in 2020:

One, there was no “excess mortality” as expected compared with 2019. There was, in fact, a decrease in mortality, fewer deaths by nearly 7,400. So the actual health damage is not as grave as told by government and many media narratives.

Two, ischemic heart diseases (heart attacks, etc.) remain as the main cause of death. An increase of 7,600+ was consistent with the trend in recent years.

Three, expected “excess mortality” would have been 30,000+ due to COVID-19 deaths. So, the expected deaths in 2020 would have been around 650,000, not 613,000.

Four, the annual deaths were equivalent to 1,700/day in no-pandemic 2019 and 1,680/day in pandemic 2020. The first reported COVID-19 death in the country was on March 11, 2020. So from March 11 to Dec. 31, 2020: (30,140 COVID-19 deaths) / (296 days) = 102 COVID-19 deaths per day. A real pandemic with excess mortality should have resulted in 1,802/day in 2020, not 1,680/day.

Five, there was large-scale renaming or labeling of many deaths from pneumonia, respiratory infections, and tuberculosis to COVID-19 deaths. There were fewer pneumonia deaths at nearly 28,500, fewer lower respiratory infection deaths at 6,000, fewer tuberculosis deaths at 4,100+. Also, fewer cancer/neoplasm deaths at nearly 2,500.

Six, pneumonia slid from fourth to the fifth killer disease, largely because of the re-labeling many pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths. An average of 58,915 people died from pneumonia yearly from 2017-2019.

Seven, the 20,840 who died from an unidentified virus which is 69% of all reported COVID-19 deaths may be false positives and resulted in the exaggeration of the total number of COVID-19 deaths. Reporting of COVID-19 cases and deaths has been inadvertently incentivized by PhilHealth. The hospital reimbursement for COVID-19 cases (both for patients who survived or died) is P143,267/patient for moderate pneumonia, P333,519/patient for severe pneumonia, and P786,384/patient for critical pneumonia (see PhilHealth Circular No. 2020-0009, dated April 8, 2020).

Eight, the big increase in diabetes deaths of 5,100+ and hypertension deaths of 3,800+. Two possible reasons are: patients are unable to have regular check-ups and treatment due to the fear of going to hospitals and various mobility restrictions, thus their conditions deteriorated, and financial support by government (Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office, Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp., provincial, city governments) for other diseases have been either reduced or stopped and the money diverted to COVID-19 cases.

Nine, fewer external causes of deaths. Fewer transport accidents by 4,100, fewer stabbings and physical assaults (2,000+), fewer drownings, fewer falls and deaths from other external causes. This is because of the lockdowns, closure of bars, checkpoints, curfew, etc.

Ten, more intentional harm and suicides. From an average of 2,752 per year in 2017-2019, the cases went up to 4,418 in 2020 or 1,666 more suicides last year. The psychological, financial, and emotional stress to many people from losing their businesses and jobs, the feeling of helplessness from being prevented from casually going out and meeting friends face to face, contributed to this.

So, the “gains” of indefinite lockdown are fewer transportation accidents, fewer fights and physical assault, fewer drownings and deaths from other external causes, and fewer “pneumonia deaths” because of re-labeling.

But the pain and damage of lockdown is too much. More suicides, more patients sick of other diseases, more business closures and job losses. The number of employed people in pre-lockdown January 2020 was 42.54 million, and this went down in lockdown October 2020 (last data available for the year) at 39.84 million, or 2.70 million fewer employed people.

The Philippines’ GDP contraction of -9.6% in 2020 was the worst since post-World War II, the worst in East Asia, and the fourth worst among the world’s top 50 largest economies. The GDP level (at constant 2018 prices) in 2020 of P17.53 trillion was far from 2019 level of P19.38 trillion, and nearly equivalent to the 2017 level of P17.18 trillion — we lost three years of economic output despite a population increase of about 5 million over those three years.

The GDP level (at constant 2018 prices) in first quarter 2021 of P4.24 trillion was equivalent to first quarter 2018 of P4.22 trillion, again a three years loss in economic output.

The issue of implicit mandatory vaccination — via actual discrimination and rumor mongering that “no jab, no job, no aid” — is getting worse. Forcing and deceiving millions of people to take experimental vaccines, to disregard natural and innate immunity, and believe only in vax immunity, is wrong.

Discriminatory government (national or local) plans of disallowing unvaccinated people from using public transportation, public hospitals and schools, public offices and buildings, can be justified only if government will also discriminate when it comes to tax payment, where the unvaccinated will pay zero or reduced income tax, zero or reduced taxes in gasoline, electricity, and so on.
-----------------

Tuesday, August 10, 2021

Macroecon 12, On Q2 2021 GDP growth

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released today the second quarter (Q2) 2021 GDP data.

The usual base effect. Q2 2020 was the deepest quarterly contraction since post WW2, so even mild increase in value or level of GDP will result in high % increase.

In terms of GDP level, at constant 2018 prices:

Q2 2018 P4.72 trillion
Q2 2019 P4.99 T
Q2 2020 P4.14 T
Q2 2021 P4.63 T

So Q2 this year is even lower than Q2 2018 or 3 yrs ago. Palakpakan ang indefinite lockdown.

In terms of GDP forecasting, Jonas Ravelas of BDO remains among the best in the country while other economists have far out forecasts.

https://www.bworldonline.com/analysts-q2-2021-gdp-estimates/

In the Q1 2021 forecast, Ravelas has the closest or best forecast, see
Macroecon 3, Five quarters of consecutive Philippines GDP contraction, May 11, 2021.

It is also the first time in so many years and even decades that many EU countries have double digit GDP quarterly growth. Still no congrats to their heavy lockdown policies.

DOF Secretary Sonny Dominguez and NEDA Secretary Karl Chua released a statement today re Q2 growth, expressing optimism. It will be inconvenient for them to show the Pesos value of GDP in Q2 2021 because it is lower than Q2 2018. So they have to focus on % change/growth.

Finally, see this quote from former BSP Deputy Governor,

"In our previous columns, we commended the President for literally burning our ships to the ground by declaring the lockdowns would stay unless we defeated the virus through effective protocols and prompt administration of the jabs."
-- Diwa Guinigundo
"Burning the ships, the only choice?" July 1, 2021 | 6:20 pm
https://www.bworldonline.com/burning-the-ships-the-only-choice/

Diwa's wish has come true. Burning PH ships to the ground is commendable. We-hee.
--------------

Sunday, August 08, 2021

Covid 52, PLOS paper in 2015, Joe Rogan, and more stories on vax injuries

Some good materials I encountered recently.

----------

Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens
Andrew F. Read ,Susan J. Baigent,Claire Powers,Lydia B. Kgosana,Luke Blackwell,Lorraine P. Smith,David A. Kennedy,Stephen W. Walkden-Brown,Venugopal K. Nair
Published: July 27, 2015
https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198

"Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek's disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts."

Fig 2. Vaccination enhances transmission of hyperpathogenic MDV.

Experiment 2. Groups of ten birds were HVT-vaccinated (solid lines) or not (dotted lines) and experimentally infected with one of our three most virulent MDV strains, 595 (green), Md5 (blue) and 675A (red), and co-housed with ten unvaccinated sentinel birds. Vaccination prolonged the survival of experimentally infected birds (A), ensuring that sentinel birds became infected (B) and, hence, died (C). In B and C, solid lines denote sentinels cohoused with vaccinated experimentally infected birds and dotted lines denote sentinels cohoused with unvaccinated experimentally infected birds. Raw data can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4tn48.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198.g002

The Pfizer mRNA vaccine: pharmacokinetics and toxicity
Michael Palmer, MD and Sucharit Bhakdi, MD
July 23rd, 2021
https://doctors4covidethics.org/the-pfizer-mrna-vaccine-pharmacokinetics-and-toxicity/

We summarize the findings of an animal study which Pfizer submitted to the Japanese health authorities in 2020, and which pertained to the distribution and elimination of a model mRNA vaccine. We show that this study clearly presaged grave risks of blood clotting and other adverse effects. The failure to monitor and assess these risks in the subsequent clinical trials, and the grossly negligent review process in conjunction with the emergency use authorizations, have predictably resulted in an unprecedented medical disaster.

Of particularly grave concern is the very slow elimination of the toxic cationic lipids. In persons repeatedly injected with mRNA vaccines containing these lipids— be they directed against COVID, or any other pathogen or disease—this would result in cumulative toxicity. There is a real possibility that cationic lipids will accumulate in the ovaries. The implied grave risk to female fertility demands the most urgent attention of the public and of the health authorities.

(The 17-pages report is here, https://doctors4covidethics.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Pfizer-pharmacokinetics-and-toxicity.pdf)

Pandemic Of The Vaccinated! 75% Of New Covid Cases In Singapore Already Got The Jab
Infowars.com July 29th 2021, 6:04 pm
https://www.infowars.com/posts/pandemic-of-the-vaccinated-75-of-new-covid-cases-in-singapore-already-got-the-jab/

Vaccinated people make up 75% of recent COVID-19 cases in Singapore, but few fall ill
Aradhana AravindanChen Lin July 23, 2021 8:47 PM PST
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vaccinated-people-singapore-make-up-three-quarters-recent-covid-19-cases-2021-07-23/

Iceland’s Chief Epidemiologist Suggests COVID-19 Restrictions Could Last For Up to 15 Years
by Paul Joseph Watson July 29th 2021, 11:57 am
https://www.infowars.com/posts/icelands-chief-epidemiologist-suggests-covid-19-restrictions-could-last-for-up-to-15-years/

"Þórólfur Guðnason, a doctor who serves as the Chief Epidemiologist of the Icelandic Directorate of Health, was quizzed by journalist Esther Hallsdóttir how long the rules should continue.

Despite a 75% vaccination rate, Iceland's top epidemiologist agrees that restrictions may be required for the next "five, ten or fifteen years." https://t.co/ZYixOfPq0O

Gibraltar, Iceland See MASSIVE Covid Spike Despite Over 90% of Population Vaccinated
Date: July 30, 2021 Author: Nwo Report
https://nworeport.me/2021/07/30/gibraltar-iceland-see-massive-covid-spike-despite-over-90-of-population-vaccinated/

"Stats coming out of several countries show vaccinated people are spreading Covid-19, as evidence mounts the vaccine is actually causing viral variants and infections as experts predicted.

In Gibraltar, a peninsula in Spain, almost 99% of the population is fully vaccinated...

Likewise, in Iceland, an island where nearly the entire adult population is vaccinated, Covid cases are similarly on the rise."

Biden team's misguided and deadly COVID-19 vaccine strategy
Vaccination 'arms race' could prove dangerous to the American public
By Dr. Robert Malone and Peter Navarro - Thursday, August 5, 2021
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/aug/5/biden-teams-misguided-and-deadly-covid-19-vaccine-/

The clear historical tendency for viruses crossing over from one species to another is to evolve in a way that makes them both more infectious and less pathogenic over time. However, a universal vaccination policy deployed in the middle of a pandemic can turn this normal Darwinian taming process into a dangerous vaccine arms race.

The essence of this arms race is this: The more people you vaccinate, the greater the number of vaccine-resistant mutations you are likely to get, the less durable the vaccines will become, ever more powerful vaccines will have to be developed, and individuals will be exposed to more and more risk.

Ran Israeli @RanIsraeli
August 6, 2021
https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli/status/1423322271503028228

"95% of the severe patients are vaccinated".
"85-90% of the hospitalizations are in Fully vaccinated people."
"We are opening more and more COVID wards."
"The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out"

(Dr. Kobi Haviv, earlier today on Chanel 13 @newsisrael13)

95% of the severe patients are vaccinated - Dr Kobi Haviv Interview (Herzog Hospital, Jerusalem)
Aug 6, 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvnHkp14Ne4

Robert W Malone, MD @RWMaloneMD
Aug 6, 2021
https://twitter.com/RWMaloneMD/status/1423332834282979329

"Good to know: reported ground truth in Israel.
If this holds true and is verified, this is looking more and more like ADE"

CDC Director Makes Case Vaccination Passports are Futile, Vaccines Do Not Prevent COVID Infection or Delta Variant Transmission
August 6, 2021 | Sundance
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/08/06/cdc-director-makes-case-vaccination-passports-are-futile-vaccines-do-not-prevent-covid-infection-or-delta-variant-transmission/

"CDC Director Rochelle Walensky stated the vaccine does not prevent COVID-19 infection, nor does it stop the vaccinated person from transmitting the infection or the delta variant. According to Director Walensky, the only benefit from the vaccine now is presumably that it reduces the severity of symptoms.

If a vaccinated and non-vaccinated person have the same capacity to carry, shed and transmit the virus – with or without symptoms – then what difference does a vaccination passport or vaccination ID make?"

What the Modellers Still Don’t Understand About Herd Immunity
By Will Jones / 6 August 2021 • 01.05
https://dailysceptic.org/2021/08/06/what-the-modellers-still-dont-understand-about-herd-immunity/

… outbreaks consistently peak before or without lockdowns, and that exit waves never occur (except when there’s a new variant about at the same time)…

Herd immunity is not a once-for-all-time thing, but variant (and season) specific. This means it is both closer than you think, and never final. But it doesn’t need to be, because such a small proportion of those infected are made seriously ill and die from this virus, whatever the variant.

"One Step Closer To Dictatorship": Joe Rogan Slams Vaccine Passports, Warns Vax May Cause 'Virulent Mutations'
BY TYLER DURDEN SATURDAY, AUG 07, 2021 - 02:30 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/one-step-closer-dictatorship-joe-rogan-slams-vaccine-passports-warns-vax-may-cause

"Now you have a mini dictator. You have one step away from a king. One step closer. You’re moving one step closer to dictatorship. That’s what the f**k is happening. That’s what’s going to happen with the vaccine passport. That’s what’s going to happen if they close borders. You can’t enter New York City unless you have your papers! You can’t go here unless you have that! You can’t get on a plane unless you do what I say."
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Meanwhile, another alarmist report posted in one of my viber groups,

9 out of 10 ICU patients in Philippine hospitals unvaccinated —NTF adviser
By CONSUELO MARQUEZ, GMA News Published August 8, 2021 8:08am
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/798491/9-out-of-10-icu-patients-in-philippine-hospitals-unvaccinated-ntf-adviser/story/

Pre-vaccinations, 10/10 of Covid ICU patients were unvaccinated. Now with endless vax pushing, 9/10 ICU patients are unvaccinated. Nabawasan 1/10.

Meanwhile, will the NTF, DOH, the vax pushers really publish Covid hospitalization data, not just cases? About 98% of those thousands cases per day are asymptomatic or mild. Could be false positives. Data on hospitalization is not available, hidden, bec data will likely not justify 17 months lockdown

A similar scaremongering are news reports, videos of overwhelmed PGH. But normal, non busy hospitals, no news reports or videos. The rule of dictatorship is to continue the scare, endless indefinite scare, and dictators in governments, multilaterals and their consultants and allies, are the saviors.

If overall data show non scary scenarios, then indefinite lockdown, endless vax pushing have zero justification, tens of billions of pesos vaccine budget plus social political restrictions have zero justification.
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