Solar power, along with wind and small hydro, is among
the favored renewable energy sources being pushed worldwide. Rich and poor
countries, both in the temperate and the tropics, are pushing for solar, urged
especially by the “save the planet” movement led by the United Nations,
national governments and the big international nongovernment organizations.
1.5-MegaWatt solar panels atop SM North EDSA
SOLAR AT SM NORTH
Last Dec. 10, this writer attended a seminar on renewable
energy organized by the Philippine Electricity Market Corp. (PEMC), the one
operating the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market. Lectures in the morning, two
field visits in the afternoon, a small solar and small biomass projects in
Quezon City. In particular, Solar Philippines’ (SP) project at SM North EDSA.
SP’s Web site says that “SP and SM Prime Holdings, Inc.
entered into a Lease Agreement on June 2014 to rent the top floor of the SM
North EDSA parking building for a 1.5MW (megawatt) solar plant. The project was
fully financed by Solar Philippines. Under the feed-in-tariff-lease model,
energy is fed to the grid at the rate of P9.68 per kWh (kilowatt-hour).”
After viewing the whole solar field, SP staff brought us
to the control room where actual electricity output is monitored.
Solar power is intermittent and very unstable.
Even during a cloudless afternoon, the most that a 1.5MW
plant can produce is 1.2MW, never reaching 100% of its rated capacity. When it
is cloudy, output is even smaller. In the pictures above, within two minutes,
electricity output declined from 596 watts to only 361 watts, simply because a
small band of clouds passed by.
People in the tropics love the clouds because they
provide temporary shade from sunlight.
But clouds are the “enemy” of solar power plants. Just a
small band of clouds passing by can significantly reduce solar power output.
In the months of December to February -- where the length
of day is only around 10.5 to 11.5 hours and the evening is longer, around 12.5
to 13.5 hours -- solar output is even lower. So whether the solar farm is a
1-MW or a 10-MW or a 100-MW or a 1,000-MW, output at night is zero -- when
people need lots of electricity for their houses and shops, offices and
factories, roads and parks, etc.
SOLAR IN THE PHILIPPINES
Let us now take the national average for the Philippines.
Chart 1 is from the PEMC.
From March to September, the length of day is longer,
about 12.5 hours on average. So, solar power would produce electricity from 7
a.m. to 6 p.m. at 5% to 65% (never reaching 100%) of its rated capacity,
average of about 18% capacity factor.
Also in the chart, wind power would give only 8%-17% of
rated capacity. So those cute windmills in Bangui, Ilocos; in Pililla, Rizal;
in Guimaras, etc., produce zero electricity when winds do not blow.
GLOBAL SOLAR CAPACITY
Around the world, installed capacity of solar energy is
rising very fast. From only 1.28 gigawatts (GW) in 2000, it rose to 41.3 GW in
2010 and 180.4 GW in 2014. The biggest investment and installation are in
Germany, China, Japan, Italy, and the US. (See Table)
Again, note that installed capacity is not the same as
actual production and capacity. Since the average capacity factor of a solar
project is only around 18%, then the 180.4 GW could produce only 32.5 GW
worldwide in 2014.
GERMANY’S SOLAR PRODUCTION
Since Germany is the “king” of solar capacity in the
world, it is a good country to study actual solar electricity production. Chart
2 shows the latest power production for the last 12 months until December 2015.
From January to mid-February 2015, then from 2nd week
November to December 2015 or about 3.5 months, solar output (in yellow) was
close to zero, or average capacity factor of perhaps only 5% or less. Just when
a country needs a lot of electricity for heating due to almost four months of
winter, solar electricity output is very low.
Policies that give special and preferential treatment to
solar and wind like FIT, renewable portfolio standards, various tax holidays,
privileges that are not given to other energy sources that are dispatchable,
more stable and more affordable, are wrong. A developing country like the
Philippines needs cheap and stable electricity, not expensive and unstable
electricity supply.
The planet saviors who went to Paris Conference of
Parties meeting and lobbied for more subsidies for intermittent solar and wind,
and want to discourage if not kill conventional energy sources like coal and
natural gas do not realize the energy poverty of their proposal.
Governments should allow the viable plants to get built
fast, reduce the various bureaucracies, permits, taxes and royalties they
impose, and not give any subsidy to nonviable ones. Very likely, those
nonviable plants will not be built if the various subsidies and other
preferential treatment like mandatory or priority dispatch are not given.
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal
Government Thinkers and a Fellow of the Stratbase-Albert del Rosario Institute
(ADRi). Views expressed are his own and may not reflect the position of
Stratbase-ADRi. minimalgovernment@gmail.com
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See also:
BWorld 25, Feed in tariff means expensive electricity, November 14, 2015
BWorld 29, Paris COP's emission cut targets vs. energy needs, December 06, 2015
BWorld 31, Comparative electricity exchange market in Asia-Pacific, December 13, 2015
BWorld 32, RCEP and TPP for the Philippines, December 16, 2015
BWorld 33, Computing rise in tax revenues if rates are cut, December 17, 2015
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