A discussion venue about the role (and misrule) of big government and high taxes. Also a second website of Minimal Government Thinkers.
Tuesday, March 04, 2025
Ukraine War 10, US leaving NATO?
Monday, March 03, 2025
BWorld 752, Changes in actual G7 growth numbers and rising public debt
Changes in actual G7 growth numbers and rising public debt
October 24, 2024 | 12:02 am
My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
On Oct. 22, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the World Economic Outlook (WEO) and its corresponding database, an Excel file of macroeconomic data covering 197 countries and territories, with the data spanning from 1980 to projections until 2029. The IMF releases the WEO twice a year, in April then an update in October.
I always download the Excel files of the database.
I compared the GDP growth in October vs the April data and one thing I noticed is that there were no significant changes in past growth among Asian countries but there were significant changes in growth among the G7 industrial countries from 2021 to 2023.
The most notorious when it comes to upward revisions in data are the US and Italy. The percentage growth in 2022 and 2023 were changed by the US from 1.9% and 2.5% in the April WEO, to 2.5% and 2.9% in the October WEO. The least changes made were by Canada and Japan (see Table 1).
One possible explanation why the US government made these big upward revisions in growth just a month before the Presidential elections is perhaps to propagate their narrative that the US economy has been doing good under the Biden-Harris administration. Usually, changes are made in projections for the current and next year’s growth, not past years’ growth.
Another piece of data that I checked in the WEO October update was the Debt/GDP ratio. There were minimal changes from the April report, but the trend remains the same — the Debt/GDP ratio of many countries keeps rising, not falling, not even remaining flat.
This is highly visible among G7 countries, led by Japan, Italy and the US. It is also seen in East Asia except Taiwan. The G7’s rival bloc, the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) that now include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia, have lower ratios than G7 members (see Table 2).
HEADING THE G-24
I read in the Department of Finance’s (DoF) Viber community thread that the current Chair of the Intergovernmental Group of 24 (G-24) Board of Governors is our own Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto, and that he has led this year’s “successful high-level meeting of ministers and governors in Washington, DC where he championed four key reforms to empower the IMF and World Bank Group to better serve developing countries.”
Congratulations, Sec. Ralph. I hope the officials and leaders of the G-24 realize that among the best strategies to develop their economies is to observe more fiscal discipline and responsibility and wean themselves away from further indebtedness whether from the IMF-WB-ADB or commercial lenders.
Meanwhile, on the Facebook page of Department of Budget and Management (DBM), I read about the planned Fiscal Policy Conference with a theme, “Efficient governance towards a stronger fiscal future” that will be held at the University of Asia and the Pacific on Oct. 23. DBM Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman was supposed to give the Opening Remarks of the first-ever public conference on this subject. Unfortunately, this week’s storm has led to the cancellation of the conference.
Public spending on infrastructure should focus more on preparing for global cooling, not warming. The trend now includes, among others, longer phases of La Niña vs El Niño, rising rivers, lakes, and creeks due to frequent flooding and not rising sea levels, the simultaneous cooling of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, etc.
Meanwhile, the Philippine Economic Society (PES) will hold its annual conference on Nov. 7 and 8 at Novotel, Cubao, Quezon City. The theme is “Traversing innovative pathways for economic resilience, inclusion and localization in the Philippines.” I am a lifetime member of the PES and I try to attend the annual event whenever possible.
Among the activities — aside from having plenty of plenary and simultaneous panel discussions — is the election of the new Board of Directors of the PES. Among the candidates is my friend, Dr. Elyxzur “Prof. X” Ramos (whom I personally nominated), the current President of University of Makati. Prof. X is an academic, a university administrator, a member of EDCOM 2, and a researcher of the current economic environment of the country. I hope he makes it to the PES Board.
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See also:
Philstar 13, Ten things about the P90 B PhilHealth excess funds and unprogrammed appropriations
Ten things about the P90 B PhilHealth excess funds and unprogrammed appropriations
ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star
October 31, 2024 | 12:00am
The Supreme Court issued last Tuesday a temporary restraining order (TRO) directing the Philippine Health Insurance Corp. (PHIC or PhilHealth) not to transfer the remaining P29.9 billion out of P89.9 billion in excess funds for 2024 to the National Treasury. It is time to revisit some facts about this fund and related issues.
First, that P90 billion is not from PhilHealth members’ premium payments. Members’ yearly contributions from 2021 to 2023 ranged from P106 billion to P158 billion, while benefits claimed ranged from P85 billion to P153 billion over the same period. So members’ contributions are intact and not diverted to other sectors in unprogrammed appropriations (UA).
Second, that P90 billion is derived from a portion of remittances from PAGCOR and PCSO, and a portion of tax revenues from alcohol and tobacco. On average, this amounts to P80 billion per year from 2021 to 2023, accumulating yearly. Thus, these are funds from bettors and gamblers, as well as from drinkers, smokers and vapers of legal tobacco products, since illicit and smuggled tobacco and alcohol do not pay taxes.
Third, the UA was created because programmed appropriations are already numerous. The regular and funded expenditures are so high that current and projected revenues will not be able to keep up, leading to a huge yearly budget deficit (revenues lower than expenditures) and substantial annual borrowing. From January to September 2024, interest payments alone for our public debt amounted to P583.3 billion, and the budget deficit reached P970.2 billion. At these rates, the full-year 2024 interest payment may reach P875 billion, and the budget deficit may reach or exceed P1.44 trillion.
Fourth, UAs are not primarily “pork barrel” for legislators. Out of the P731 billion in UA for 2024, the potential Congressional pork barrel fund would be P225 billion allocated for strengthening assistance for government infrastructure and social programs. The remaining P506 billion is designated for foreign-assisted projects (FAPs), Philippine counterpart funds, and social programs for health and education, among others.
Fifth, the Philippines’ out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPE) for healthcare of $91 per capita in 2021 were actually higher than those of Vietnam at $69, Cambodia at $67, Indonesia at $42, India at $37 and Thailand at $33. Valued in purchasing power parity (PPP) for 2021, Philippine OOPE per capita of $219 was higher than those in Vietnam at $215, Cambodia at $198, Indonesia at $131, India at $117 and Thailand at $88 (Source: WB, World Development Indicators 2024 Database).
Sixth, LGUs and NGOs also have pork allocations in the annual budget. The annual budget for departments and agencies incorporates input from local government units (LGUs) through the various regional development councils. Civil society organizations and non-government organizations (NGOs) also contribute through consultations. For instance, the Alternative Budget Initiative (ABI) network of NGOs, through its health cluster, is consulted yearly by the DOH, usually in early February.
Since it is almost impossible for these consulted groups – LGUs and NGOs – not to introduce their own political and sectoral interests in formulating the annual budget, it is safe to assume they have their insertions in the proposed budget yearly.
Seventh, a 100 percent universal health care coverage for the entire population is an illusion. Very rich countries like Singapore and South Korea had UHC service coverage indexes (SCI) in 2021 of only 89 and Japan had 83 – not 100. China’s UHC-HCI was 81, Malaysia 76, Vietnam 68 and the Philippines 58 (same source, WB-WDI 2024).
Eighth, if the Department of Finance (DOF) and the economic team were to borrow an additional P90 billion to fund important items in the UA, at a six percent average interest rate for government 10-year bonds, that would mean P5.4 billion per year in interest payments alone, in addition to yearly principal amortization.
Ninth, the reduction of indirect contributors entitled to PhilHealth coverage from 21.1 million to 10.6 million in 2025 did not come from the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) or DOF but from PhilHealth itself. This is because their share from “sin taxes” has declined due to a significant decline in tobacco excise tax revenue – from P176 billion in 2021 to P160 billion in 2022, P135 billion in 2023 and projected to be around P122 billion in 2024. High tobacco smuggling and illicit trade explain this trend.
Tenth, health groups and agencies that demonize tobacco and alcohol products as “unhealthy and harmful” should not rely on tax revenues from tobacco and alcohol. They appear to double-talk when they demonize a product while benefiting from higher tax revenues generated by more smokers and drinkers.
BWorld 751, Some economic background of the US elections, lessons for the Philippines
Some economic background of the US elections, lessons for the Philippines
October 22, 2024 | 12:02 am
My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
As the US Presidential elections are in two weeks, this column will try to compare the economic performances of the administrations of former President Donald Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence (2017-2020), and President Joe Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris (2021 to present).
The baseline data is 2016, the last year of the Obama administration. For the Trump/Pence period, 2019 is used because 2020 is “outlier” with all the COVID-19 lockdowns worldwide, and for Biden/Harris, 2023 is used because 2024 is not over yet.
The comparison data are GDP size at purchasing power parity (PPP) values, electricity generation in terawatt-hours (TWh), and foreign direct investment (FDI) inward stock which is accumulated FDI inflows minus outflows.
The data sources are the databases of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2024, the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy (EI-SRWE) 2024, and the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report (WIR) 2024.
The data so far show the following.
1. There was significant expansion in the US’ GDP size under Biden/Harris but GDP growth was also experienced by China, India, Russia, and the ASEAN-5 except Thailand as shown in percent growth.
2. There was lackluster expansion in electricity generation under both Trump/Pence and Biden/Harris administrations. But at least there was no contraction in the US, unlike in other G7 countries like Japan, Germany, and the UK.
3. There was a significant expansion in FDI inward stock under both the Trump/Pence and Biden/Harris administrations, both in values and percent growth (see Tables 1 and 2).
4. Looking at the Debt/GDP ratio, Trump added only 1.5 percentage points, from 106.6% in 2016 to 108.1% in 2019. But Trump made the big mistake of listening to the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and others about imposing a hard lockdown in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic, and US debt expanded big time during that period with the government giving away lots of subsidies and freebies in 2020 while its revenues declined.
Despite the big income tax cut under Trump — from 35% to 21% by 2018 — public debt did not increase as “predicted” by high tax-loving Democrats. Because Trump made some spending cuts, like not entering into a new US war abroad, to match the tax cut.
That major income tax cut by Trump starting 2018 should be considered one of the big factors why FDIs and overall GDP size significantly expanded in the US.
During the current election campaign period, Trump said that if he wins he will make another US income tax cut, from 21% to 15%, and raise US tariffs for imports abroad. So a one-two-punch of rewarding companies that invest in the US via a low income tax, and penalizing companies abroad that sell to the US. In the process, more investments and job creation will happen in the US.
But for me the most important planned Trump policy — if he wins in two weeks — is “no new US war abroad,” a policy he followed from 2017-2020 during his term.
LESSONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES
There are some lessons to be learned from the numbers above that our government economic team should consider.
1. We should not entertain an income tax hike, but rather move for an income tax cut someday, to be compensated by a higher number of new businesses and some spending cuts and borrowings cuts.
I refer to one report in BusinessWorld yesterday: “‘Wealth tax’ can fund efforts to combat poverty, climate change — US economist Sachs” (Oct. 21). Not so: wealthy people and industrious entrepreneurs can easily move their capital and efficient business systems to other countries where there is little politics of envy.
2. Significant expansion in electricity generation leads to a significant expansion in GDP size and FDI inward stock. This is shown in the experiences of Vietnam, Indonesia, China, and India. And these four countries are all heavy users of coal power.
3. Focus on business and economics, trade and commerce, investments and tourism which will greatly propel our economy to industrialization. Do not focus on war mongering and war preparations. Focus on climate and energy realism, not alarmism.
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Sunday, March 02, 2025
Free Trade 74, Trump's tariff reciprocity plan
Philstar 12, Nuclear energy to help propel Philippines industrialization
Nuclear energy to help propel Philippines industrialization
ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star
October 24, 2024 | 12:00am
The Philippines has total power generation of 26.6 terawatt-hours (TWH) or 26,600 gigawatt-hours in 1993, 52.9 TWH in 2003, 75.3 TWH in 2013, and 119 TWH in 2023. The Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) has a capacity of 620 megawatts (MW) and if it was allowed to operate in 1985 could have generated about 4.6 TWH a year of electricity.
Several countries have produced at least 15 TWH from nuclear power alone decades ago: UK in 1965, US in 1970, Canada in 1973, Russia in 1974, France and Germany in 1975, Sweden in 1976, Switzerland in 1981, Belgium and Finland in 1982, Spain in 1984.
Among Asians, Japan in 1974, Taiwan in 1983, South Korea in 1985, China and India in 2000, Pakistan in 2021, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2022.
The peak nuclear power generation of these countries were as follows: US 849 TWH in 2010, France 452 TWH in 2005, Japan 326 TWH in 1998, Russia 224 TWH in 2022, Germany 171 TWH in 2001, Canada 106 TWH in 2014, UK 100 TWH in 1998, Sweden 78 TWH in 2004, Spain 64 TWH in 2001, Belgium 48 TWH in 2007, Taiwan 42 TWH in 2014.
In 2023, these Asians reached their peak nuclear power generation: China 435 TWH, South Korea 180 TWH, India 48 TWH, UAE 32 TWH, Pakistan 22 TWH. Data source for the above numbers is London-based Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, 2024 database.
France remains the most nuclear-intensive country in the world. The share of nuclear over total power generation in these countries in early 1990s were as follows: France up to 80 percent, Belgium 60 percent, Spain 37 percent, Germany and Taiwan 30 percent, Japan 28 percent. In the early 2000s, Sweden has up to 50 percent, South Korea 38 percent.
So nuclear power has been tapped by many countries around the world decades ago especially the Europeans and North Americans, and this greatly propelled them to industrialize early. The Asians are catching up now.
The main opposition by many people against nuclear energy is nuclear accident. But the last nuclear accident with human fatalities was in 1986 in Chernobyl plant in Ukraine, then part of the USSR. The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan in 2011 has zero casualty, no death or serious injuries but over 100,000 people were evacuated as precaution.
Philippines doing nuclear energy soon
Early March this year, there was a Philippine Nuclear Trade Mission to Canada organized by the Canadian Embassy in Manila. It was headed by DOE Undersecretary Sharon Garin and DOST Undersecretary Leah Buendia, along with ERC chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta, PNRI deputy director Vallerie Samson, local energy companies and local media, including myself.
Among the recent development in the country’s push to tap nuclear power as reported in the Philippine Star are the following: “Meralco revving up nuclear energy push” (Aug. 26), “AboitizPower in talks with nuclear reactor makers” (Aug. 29), “Philippines, South Korea firm ink deal for Bataan nuclear power plant study” (Oct. 7), “Meralco, Samsung forge nuclear energy deal” (Oct. 15).
This month alone, Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with South Korea’s Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd. to collaborate on developing low-carbon energy projects in the Philippines.
The Meralco – Doosan partnership will include among others: the potential rehabilitation of the BNPP, the use of small modular reactors (SMRs), possible deployment of greenhouse gas reduction equipment like ammonia co-firing technology for ageing thermal power plants. Also possible development and supply of gas turbine for combined cycle power projects of Meralco’s subsidiaries, Doosan to serve as the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor for these projects.
Meralco chairman and CEO Manuel V. Pangilinan said that given Meralco’s commitment to support the Philippine government’s goal of energy security, “partnering with reputable and dependable companies like Doosan aligns well with our pursuit to continuously explore innovative energy solutions that we can adopt as we work towards ensuring availability of sufficient, affordable and reliable power to meet our country’s long-term goals.”
Meralco also signed an MOU with another South Korean firm, Samsung C&T Corporation Engineering & Construction Group to advance the adoption of nuclear energy projects in the Philippines.
The Meralco – Samsung partnership will include among others: sharing of technical design and capabilities of nuclear technology, the prevailing regulatory framework, energy landscape, necessary grid infrastructure, the potential roll-out of a pilot demonstration projects, other opportunities for nuclear power development like construction of large nuclear power plants and SMRs.
On the Aboitiz Power (AP) talks with nuclear original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), AP’s chief corporate services officer Carlos Aboitiz is quoted saying that “It’s very new. In all likelihood, it’s definitely not going to happen in the 2020s. It’s less likely to happen in the early 2030s. But even then, we have to start investing now.”
As a researcher of energy economics, among the topics that I regularly write, I see that only Meralco and AP have made explicit interest to develop nuclear energy in the Philippines. But Meralco is more advanced in taking steps, like doing these MOUs with the Koreans, sending several Filipino engineering scholars to the US and China to study advance nuclear technology.
Nuclear energy has many safe and peaceful applications beyond power generation. Like radioisotopes used in agriculture, healthcare and medicine, nuclear for desalination, transportation, etc. As a developing and fast-growing economy, the Philippines will need nuclear power to augment our existing baseload plants from coal, natural gas, geothermal and big hydro. Industrialization will need more electricity, lots of it.
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BWorld 750, BARMM economic potential; US debt and elections
BARMM economic potential; US debt and elections
October 17, 2024 | 12:02 am
My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
Two topics will be covered in this column so we go straight to the numbers and facts.
The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) has the smallest regional GDP size even among Mindanao’s six regions — only P292 billion in 2023 (at constant 2018 prices). The region has remained economically undeveloped even after the conclusion of the comprehensive peace agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in March 2014.
The BARMM is composed of six provinces — Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Norte (except Cotabato City), Maguindanao del Sur, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, and Sulu. The regional GDP of P292 billion was only 1.4% of the total Philippine GDP of P21.05 trillion in 2023. I was expecting that during and after the peace agreement in 2014, regional growth would quickly rise but it did not. The average growth in 2013-2018 was only 5.5% compared with the national growth of 6.6% (see Table 1).

Recently the Supreme Court ruled that Sulu (with a population of 1 million according to the 2020 census) is no longer part of the BARMM, so the region now has only five provinces.
Last week I read about and saw photos of a big meeting, the 20th meeting of the National Government — Bangsamoro Government’s Intergovernmental Relations Body (IGRB) held on Oct. 11 at Chardonnay de Astoria in Pasig City. (It is a good venue, part of the Astoria Hotels and Resorts group owned by a friend and fellow UP School of Economics alumnus, Jeffrey Ng.)
Department of Budget and Management (DBM) Secretary and IGRB Co-chair Amenah F. Pangandaman, and BARMM Minister and IGRB co-chair Mohagher M. Iqbal, led the meeting. Secretary Pangandaman is also a Muslim — her family hails from Marawi City.
Both officials emphasized the role of peace or the absence of war in the region to advance growth and prosperity. The BARMM needs to be on a fast track growth and investment expansion to catch up economically even with its neighbor regions in Mindanao.
Here are some reports this year from BusinessWorld on this topic: “Bangsamoro ecozones backed” (Jan. 14), “Gains mark BARMM’s 5th year” (Jan. 21), “Energy dep’t, BARMM to offer areas for exploration” (Feb. 26), “Bangsamoro gov’t authorized to enter into foreign-aid deals under new ODA guidelines” (Sept. 3), “BARMM to buy DBP stake in Amanah Bank” (Sept. 9), “BARMM studying Malaysia’s programs” (Oct. 1), “Exploring land-based natural gas fields in Southern Mindanao” (Oct. 14, “Introspective” column by Dr. Ramon Clarete), “SC ruling on Sulu won’t disrupt gov’t operations — IGRB” (Oct.15).
I hope that the recent IGRB meeting and the inspirational messages of Ms. Pangandaman and Mr. Iqbal will spur the participants and their people in the region to move faster in attracting domestic and foreign investments. Especially huge funds from rich Muslim economies in the Middle East like Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.
THE US ELECTIONS
The US Presidential elections are just three weeks away, so I checked the fiscal management records of past American presidents Barrack Obama and Donald Trump, and incumbent President Joe Biden.
Since Mr. Trump had an explicit policy of “no new US war abroad” coupled with ending existing US wars, the man has actually controlled the fast expansion of US debt, with an average increase of only around $3.15 trillion over three years (2016-2019) or $1 trillion/year.
Then came the COVID-19 lockdowns and mandatory shutdown of businesses globally in 2020. US debt jumped by $4.2 trillion in a single year to $26.94 trillion by the end of Fiscal Year 2019-2020.
President Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris backed a new US war/involvement abroad in Ukraine, sustained existing wars (US troops are still in Syria, Iraq, etc.), and are preparing for a big war vs China over Taiwan. US public debt has been increasing, from $1 trillion/year under Trump (except for 2020) to $2.13 trillion/year under Biden (see Table 2).

These public debt numbers do not include yet unfunded liabilities like pension which are in the several tens of trillion dollars.
The world has experienced 79 years of peace, with no world wars (from September 1945, when World War II ended, to October 2024). Conflicts between and among countries over territory, over natural resources and other issues were resolved via diplomacy and peaceful settlement. Yes, there were inter-country or regional wars but no world war.
We should keep peace in the world. We should have more commerce and trade, more investments and tourism, more exchange of sports, culture, and rock bands in the world. Not more missiles and bombs, more jetfighters and fighter drones.
I hope that we shall see a no new war, and see policy change on existing wars in the US again after the Nov. 5 elections.
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Ukraine war 9, Trump kicked out Zelensky from the White House
Philstar 11, Why a 6.3 percent GDP growth in 2024 is possible
Why a 6.3 percent GDP growth in 2024 is possible
ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star
October 17, 2024 | 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/business/2024/10/17/2393017/why-63-percent-gdp-growth-2024-possible
The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has set the Philippines’ GDP growth target at six to seven percent in 2024 (or an average of 6.5 percent) and 6.5-7.5 percent (average of seven percent) in 2025.
The DBCC is composed of the Secretaries of DBM, DOF, NEDA and Governor of BSP and they are planning to have a meeting in November or December to review the macroeconomic targets and assumptions, and consequently the fiscal targets until 2028.
Now the multilateral agencies project lower growth this year and the next. The ADB’s Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2024 update sees growth of six percent in 2024 and 6.2 percent in 2025.
The WB’s Global Economic Prospects (GEP) June 2024 update sees a growth of 5.8 percent in 2024 and 5.9 percent in 2025.
And the most recent IMF Staff Mission last October 3 sees growth of 5.8 percent in 2024 and 6.1 percent in 2025.
Among private entities and their latest projections, Nomura Research sees 5.6 percent in 2024 and 6.1 percent in 2025.
Deutsche Bank Research projects 5.8 percent in 2024 and 5.6 percent in 2025. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) sees 6.1 percent in 2024 and 6.3 percent in 2025.
Finance Secretary Ralph Recto believes that the six percent DBCC target for 2024 is achievable and adjustments will likely be made for 2025.
He made this statement on the sidelines of the Asia CEO Awards where he was recognized as the “Lifetime Contributor Awardee for the Public Sector,” the highest recognition of the Asia CEO Awards.
Congratulations for this award, Sec. Ralph. And the economic team, the DBCC, should keep the growth target for the year. I personally believe that a 6.2 percent growth in 2024 is achievable.
For four reasons.
One, our GDP growth in the first half of the year was 6.1 percent already, buoyed by 6.3 percent in the second quarter. I see a 6.4 percent growth in Q3 to Q4.
Two, our unemployment rate from January to August 2024 averaged four percent, lower than January to August 2023 average of 4.3 percent.
Meaning there were more businesses, more jobs and economic activities created this year than last year.
Three, our inflation rate in Q3 has gone down to only 3.2 percent, from 3.6 percent in Q1 and Q2 and six percent in full year in 2023.
Low inflation means higher consumer confidence, raising household consumption which is about 75 percent of total GDP and hence, can pull up overall GDP growth.
And four, our manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is now the highest in East Asia: In August and September 2024, the Philippines had 51.2 and 53.7 points respectively.
In contrast, Taiwan has 51.5 and 50.8 points; Thailand has 52 and 50.4 points; Japan has 49.8 and 49.7 points; Malaysia has 49.7 and 49.5 points; China has 50.4 and 49.3 points; Indonesia has 48.9 and 49.3 points; Singapore has 50.9 and 48.3 points; South Korea has 51.9 and 48.3 points; and Vietnam has 52.4 and 47.3 points.
PMI as an economic indicator shows a country’s health in the manufacturing or services sector because it assesses and incorporates various business aspects like new orders, production, and employment. PMI above 50 points implies economic expansion while below 50 signifies economic slowdown if not contraction. Thus, it shows clear short-term business and economic trends.
Singapore and Vietnam reported their Q3 2024 GDP growth at 4.1 percent and 7.4 percent respectively, versus their Q3 2024 growth of one percent and 5.5 percent.
So Singapore and Vietnam were able to register fast growth in Q3 this year despite having low PMI below 50.
To conclude, the Philippines should be able to have high Q3 2024 GDP growth – I see 6.4 percent, maintained up to Q4 – given the declining unemployment rate, declining inflation rate and high PMI.
The bad economic environment in Europe is seen by many as possibly dragging the Philippines and other economies down due to lower global trade, lower remittances and so on.
I see differently. As nature hates a vacuum, capital also hates idleness. This means that capital, technology and industrious people from Europe should be moving toward Asia including the Philippines. So we can expect more investments, more tourism, more trade when capital migration from Europe becomes busier.
We keep the business optimism, we rely more on our domestic economic dynamism that can attract the attention of investors and professionals abroad to consider moving to the Philippines, both short- and long-term.
The economic team, the DBCC, can focus on fiscal consolidation, reducing the deficit and borrowings while there are no economic and finance crises.
Cut some spending, reduce the total public debt stock and annual interest payment. Such fiscal savings can be plowed back to more public infrastructure spending, both urban and rural infrastructures that will further improve our economic competitiveness and dynamism.
BWorld 749, NEA, Batelec, Nordeco and other electric cooperatives
NEA, Batelec, Nordeco and other electric cooperatives
October 15, 2024 | 12:02 am
My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
One of the more wasteful agencies in the government, one that needs an endless subsidy from Philippine taxpayers, is the National Electrification Administration (NEA).
Consider these points:
1. In 2020 alone, taxpayers nationwide sent P12.9 billion to NEA, then another P2 to P3 billion/year from 2021 to 2025. The NEA subsidy, on average, is larger than the annual budget of its mother agency, the Department of Energy (DoE), and at least three times the annual budget of the Energy Regulatory Commission (see the table).
In 2022, 35 ECs used up P1.2 billion of the NEA’s subsidy — P561 million for capex loans, P506 million for calamity loans, and P10 million for the S-T credit facility. In 2023, 28 ECs used up P1 billion plus of the subsidy — P475 million for capex loans, P465 million for working capital, and P63 million for S-T credit. And this year, up until August, 27 ECs used up P1.28 billion — P780 million for capex loans, P482 million for working capital, P13 million in calamity loans.
3. The NEA is a political institution that gives political patronage to ECs, which are allowed to incur system losses of up to 12% which are passed on to the consumers while private distribution utilities (DUs) are capped at 6% in system losses. That 6% difference between the two could be hundreds of billions of pesos yearly in additional payments by consumers in the provinces.
There is no “market failure” in electricity distribution to justify this continued patronage. I have argued in the past for the abolition of the NEA someday, and that all ECs should become corporations, monitored by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and not entitled to any taxpayer subsidy.
TWO CASE STUDIES OF INEFFICIENCIES
Let us look at the Batangas Electric Cooperative, Inc. (Batelec) I and II.
Consider the Ganire sa Batangas Facebook page which listed regular blackouts by Batelec 1 on Oct. 8, 11 p.m. to 3 a.m.; Oct. 9, 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. in Malvar; Oct. 11, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.; and on Oct. 13, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
I read a statement, “Batangas Mayors issue resolution, officially back Meralco-Batelec I joint venture.” It mentions many mayor-members of The League of Municipalities of the Philippines (LMP) — Batangas Chapter. They passed and issued a resolution supporting a joint venture between Meralco and the EC to help stabilize the power supply in the area. Signatories include the mayors of Agoncillo (Cinderella V. Reyes), Nasugbu (Antonio Jose A. Barcelon), San Luis (Oscarlito M. Hernandez), Calaca (Sofronio Leonardo C. Ona, Jr.), Calatagan (Peter Oliver M. Palacio), Sta. Teresita (Norberto A. Segunial), Taal (Fulgencio I. Mercado), Lian (Joseph V. Peji), and Tuy (Jose Jecerell C. Cerrado). Some 72% of the population of the Batelec I franchise area also support improvement of the power supply and the avoidance of frequent and prolonged blackouts.
The mayors declared that they “urge Batelec I’s management and Board of Directors to actively engage with Meralco executives and representatives to explore potential partnership opportunities, ensuring that such collaboration prioritizes the protection of employment for current Batelec I workers, enhance electric services and commit to providing transparent and regular updates on the progress of partnership.”
Meralco Senior Vice-President and Chief External and Government Affairs Officer, Arnel Casanova, said that “We welcome this development. This is an acknowledgment that we are one with LMP-Batangas in the mission to provide reliable and affordable electricity for the consumers. It is urgent and important that our partnership with Batelec I is equally supported by the stakeholders so we can all move forward with credible solutions. Meralco is positioned to lend technical expertise and infuse capital to Batelec I to jointly provide better service to Batanguenos.”
I also saw a Facebook video post of the chairman of the Batangas Forum and former Tanauan mayor, Francisco Lirio. He lamented that in the 47 years of Batelec presence in the province, there is little and very slow improvement in its services, saying that the problems before are still the problems today, and that he welcomes a joint venture between Meralco and Batelec II.
Rep. Joey Salceda, Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, emphasized in a statement that “Meralco provides the most reliable service among all major electric cooperatives and distribution utilities (EC/DUs), with outages suffered by the average consumer totaling to mere minutes in an entire year, versus days’ or weeks’ worth of blackouts for other neighboring EC/DUs.”
Good luck, people and local leaders of Batangas. Your province is rich — it had a provincial GDP of P671 billion in 2022 which is among the top 10 in the Philippines, but it is lower than Laguna’s P1.023 trillion and Cavite’s P780 billion. The whole of Cavite and portions of Laguna are under the Meralco franchise area. A good power supply at competitive prices can spur more growth, and more businesses and jobs, in a province.
Then there is the Northern Davao Electric Cooperative (Nordeco).
Last week at the House of Representatives Committee on Legislative Franchise, legislators questioned Nordeco over its repeated failure in delivering quality and reliable power to consumers within its franchise area, and opposed the planned expansion of the franchise coverage area of Davao Light and Power Co. which includes 16 municipalities and two cities in Davao del Oro and Davao del Norte.
Pwersa ng Bayaning Atleta Rep. Margarita I. Nograles argued that Nordeco’s arguments were just repeated, and that private DU Davao Light, which has a good track record, is willing to improve the reliability of the power supply to the consumers in the area.
Rep. Gustavo Tambunting of Paranaque’s 2nd District, the panel chairman, said that the committee had given enough time to Nordeco: “so much leeway has been given, and it has been a very transparent and open hearing.”
Rep. Cheeno Miguel Almario of Davao Oriental’s 2nd District corroborated the suffering of the consumers from “terrible electricity.”
Many ECs were formed through the forced merger, consolidation, and nationalization of private DUs. A friend told me that one Visayas-based private energy corporation alone lost two utilities in Ormoc and Jolo, and lost Dipolog and Dumaguete franchises.