BWorld 565, Economic briefing in Washington DC, PPP Center, Tariff Commission, and agencies with no secretaries

* My article in BusinessWorld last Oct. 17.
----------------

On Oct. 7, I was interviewed on the BusinessWorld Live program of One News, Cignal TV which is hosted by very articulate broadcasters Danie Laurel and Jes delos Santos. The topic was about the impact of the OPEC+ decision to cut their combined oil production by 2 million barrels per day (mbpd), from 43.8 mbpd until this October to 41.8 mbpd by November. Projected global oil demand is 100 mbpd.

Towards the end, they asked me for my assessment of President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.’s first 100 days, I said that on a scale of one to 10, 10 being the highest, I would give him a seven overall. I would add now that if we focus on economic policies, I would give him an 8.5. For three reasons.

One, the quick formation of the administration’s economic team — Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Felipe Medalla, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman — high caliber economic minds and public officials, as early as May 30 or just three weeks after the May 9 elections. The President wanted to send a clear signal to investors and the public that his economic team are mainly technocrats and the choice was not based on political patronage.

Two, the prudent management of inflation, the main concern of many people. The 6.9% inflation rate in September was indeed high but it was only a four-year high, at the same level as 6.9% in October 2018. Compare that with Germany’s 10% which is a 70-year high (the highest since 1952), the Netherlands’ 51-year high, the US, UK, and Canada’s 40-year high, and so on. The discontinuation of geographical lockdowns by the previous administration was a big factor for more production and transportation of goods and services leading to controlled inflation.

Three, the three Philippine Economic Briefing (PEB) events abroad, a series of investment promotion campaigns telling global investors that the country is ready and prepared to welcome them. The President, the economic team, and infrastructure team, about nine Cabinet Secretaries plus the BSP Governor, telling investors face to face to come to the country. The PEB in Jakarta and Singapore on Sept. 6-7 resulted in about $14.4 billion in investment pledges, and the PEB in New York on Sept. 22 saw about $4 billion investment plans.

I cannot say the economic policies are near-perfect (a score of nine to 10) because of one big burden — the continued huge borrowings and high interest payments yearly are a big pulldown. The government’s outstanding public debt rose from P8.22 trillion (actual + guaranteed) in 2019 to P12.15 trillion in 2021 and P13.41 trillion as of August 2022. It is projected to reach P14.0 trillion by the end of this year. The net financing (gross borrowings minus principal amortization) rose from P0.88 trillion in 2019 to P2.37 trillion a year average for 2020-2021.

These numbers I explained today during an interview by veteran host Cito Beltran on his program Agenda on One News, Cignal TV. Thanks for the opportunity to discuss these economic numbers and their implications, Cito.

PEB IN WASHINGTON DC

Last Saturday, Oct. 15, another PEB was held in Washington DC. BSP Governor Medalla, Secretaries Diokno and Pangandaman, and National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Assistant Secretary Sarah Lynn Daway-Ducanes spoke to the assembled investors and some US federal officials, and reiterated the optimistic condition in the country — that we have institutionalized and legislated a conducive regulatory and investment environment.

Also last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the October update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO). The Philippines is the 39th largest economy in the world, tailing No. 38 Singapore by just $3 billion.

The latest projections of the three multilaterals — the Asian Development Bank or ADB, the World Bank or WB, and the IMF — put the Philippines’ 2022 GDP growth at 6.5%. If true, that should be the 4th fastest growth in the world’s top 50 largest economies, trailing Bangladesh’s 7.2%, Vietnam’s 7%, and India’s 6.8% (see table).

I think the multilaterals’ assessment of the Philippines is not realistic enough. In the first half (H1), or quarters 1 and 2, our growth was already 7.8%. This implies that they project H2 growth only at 5.2% to have a full year growth of 6.5%.

Using the power and electricity demand for July-September of about 6-7% (the Luzon-Visayas grids) as a proxy for GDP growth, I see growth of 7-7.5% in Q3 and this will likely be sustained in Q4. So, the full year 2022 growth would be around 7.5%, not the 6.5% projection of the multilaterals.

And from anecdotal data that I see both in Metro Manila and some provinces, there is high and fast recovery this year given the muted and slow growth in 2021.

Investors who attended the four PEB in four big cities abroad should be assured that they are entering a dynamic economy with a big consumer base.

PPP CENTER AND TARIFF COMMISSION

Last week at the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP) forum, the new Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center Executive Secretary Cynthia Hernandez identified the emerging PPP sectors — health, water and sanitation, transportation, solid waste management, and ecozones, among others — as priorities for development on top of traditional PPP sectors like toll roads, seaports, airports, and power.

Given the huge annual budget deficit and net borrowings that started in 2020, many projects should be taken out of an “all taxpayers pay” scheme and be put under “only users pay” scheme. The PPP projects embody this principle and Ms. Hernandez — an engineer, economist, and financial advisor, a three-in-one brain — has the will and expertise to make this pivot of unburdening taxpayers while having big infrastructure projects.

Also last week, the Tariff Commission (TC) ruled on two different cases on cement tariffs. First, that the safeguard measure against cement imports cannot be extended beyond October 2022 because the requirements of the law (RA 8800) were not met. And second, the imposition of anti-dumping (AD) duties against imports of cement from Vietnam — that there will be no AD duties for exporters with de minimis or negative dumping margins (DMs), and have AD duties on exporters which have non-de minimis positive DMs.

A legal technicality for me, but as I understand it that the TC overall has ruled in favor of free trade in cement. Congratulations to the commission, headed by Chairperson Marilou Mendoza. My free trade mind actually supports dumping. If Vietnam will burden its taxpayers to subsidize cheap cement exports to the Philippines, so be it. The biggest protection against strong storms, floods, and earthquakes is not more politics. It is strong houses and buildings. People should use more cement and steel to live and work in strong structures.

DEPARTMENTS WITH NO SECRETARIES YET

The Office of Press Secretary (OPS) and Department of Health (DoH) are among the departments and agencies with Acting or Officer in Charge (OIC) leaders only.

I think a Press Secretary/Presidential Spokesperson is someone with at least four characteristics. One, they are savvy in the law because many Presidential pronouncements have legal implications. Two, they have past or current media and public relations experience, preferably both in broadcast/TV and print media. Three, they have a deep corporate background to augment and better appreciate the economic team’s big push to attract more investments into the country. And four, they must have good looks, and a mature and charismatic personality.

I can think of one person who fits this shoe — Michael “Mike” Toledo.

For Health Secretary, I think that the previous and current leadership of the DoH and their consultants were responsible for the very strict lockdown policies in 2020 — leading to the Philippines having the worst economic contraction in Asia, also the worst contraction in Philippine history since post-World War 2. They seem to plan for an endless health emergency situation, and they do not seem to mind if public borrowings remain at P2+ trillion yearly for many years so long as their yearly budget and vaccine procurement remain high.

Two doctors would be good as the next DoH Secretary. One is Dr. Godofreda “Jody” Vergeire-Dalmacion, an epidemiologist and retired professor from the Department of Pharmacology, University of the Philippines (UP) College of Medicine. The other is Dr. Benigno “Iggy” Agbayani, Jr., also a product of the UP College of Medicine and former President of Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC PH). Both physicians have high credibility and independence, they opposed the lockdown, and advocated focused protection via cheap, proven, and off-patent medicines.

I hope President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. will consider Mike Toledo, Dr. Jody Vergeire-Dalmacion or Dr. Iggy Agbayani for those positions.
-------------

See also: 
BWorld 562, PEB in NYC, UPSE homecoming, and transport liberalization, October 04, 2022
BWorld 563, Economic freedom, power reserves, and declining births, October 06, 2022
BWorld 564, The ERC, NGCP, inflation and public debt, October 20, 2022.

Agenda One News, Part 8

Last Monday, October 17, veteran TV host Cito Beltran interviewed me again in his daily, Monday-Friday 8-9am tv program, "Agenda" in One News, Cignal TV, https://www.facebook.com/ONENewsPH. 

Cito is also a columnist in Philippine Star, every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, https://www.philstar.com/authors/1804831/cito-beltran.

Two topics supposedly he would ask me -- about banks on GFANZ (Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero) and the Philippine economy.

But during the staff intro about me (thanks, Jhoanna), Cito was intrigued again by my think tank, Minimal Government Thinkers (MGT. That's where he asked me several questions about the philosophy and advocacies of the group.

I said that MGT is a think tank advocating minimal government, small limited government that require less taxes, less interventions. A government limited in primary function to protect the people's three basic rights -- right to life (vs violence, murder,...), right to private property (vs thieves, arsonists,...) and right to liberty (vs bullies, dictatorship,...).  That we need to remind people to assume more personal and parental responsibility and not assume that many things should be government responsibility, including their children's healthcare, education, etc. Because a government that's big enough to give everything you want is also big enough to take everything you have. Cito liked this, repeated and emphasized this.

Going to the Philippine economy and MGT advocacies, I said that we need to cut spending, cut borrowings and cut taxes. Our outstanding public debt rose from P8.22 trillion in 2019 to about P12.15 in 2021, P13.4 trillion as of August 2022, our interest payment alone about P360 billion in 2020, P380 billion in 2021, and projected to reach P500 billion this year. Interest payment alone, principal amortization not included yet.

Then we went into infrastructure spending, Cito also believes that big conglomerates here have the resources and engineering capacity to undertake many huge infra. I added that we should indeed move away from "all taxpayers pay" to "only users pay" scheme in many infra projects.

Two things that the national government can do to avoid huge taxation of the people due to our huge public debt: reduce spending by the national government as local governments have more money under the Mandanas ruling, and have large-scale privatization of government assets and corporations.

Parting words, I reiterated that we should go back to people assuming more personal and parental responsibility and have less government responsibility in running our own lives. Stick to the rule of law, from small things like traffic rules where ordinary motorists are easily penalized while red plates (government) and those with govt connections can park in No Parking areas, violate or be exempted from car-prohibition (coding) days, etc.

The interview lasted for 30 minutes, see here starting from 28 minutes mark, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMiTWpjIfvU. 

Many thanks again, Cito.
----------------

See also:
Agenda One News, Part 5, July 28, 2020
Agenda One News, Part 6, August 31, 2020
Agenda One News, Part 7, February 07, 2022.

BWorld 564, The ERC, NGCP, inflation and public debt

* My column in BusinessWorld last October 10.
----------------

Four important events that occurred last week: the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) dismissed the rate hike petition of the power companies of San Miguel Corp. (SMC); the continuing threat of blackouts was highlighted; the jump in the inflation rate; and, the government’s cash operations and debt payment information were released.

ERC’S DISMISSAL OF SMC POWER COMPANIES PETITION

Last Monday, the ERC published its decision denying the petition of SMC for a rate hike for its two power plants. See these reports in BusinessWorld: “Meralco vows to prevent termination of SMC deals” Oct. 5), “SMC studies legal options after rate hike denial” (Oct. 6), and, “SMC plans to sell power to WESM after rate-hike denial” (Oct. 7).

For me the main issue that the ERC has to grapple with is not the projected higher electricity rate hike if the SMC petition was not granted. The main issue is rule of law and sanctity of contract. If the ERC granted the SMC petition, then it would be a signal for many other generation companies to also go to the ERC and demand a rate hike. Since the rule of law mandates that the law applies equally to unequal people and companies, that no one should grant exception and favoritism, then the ERC would be obliged to also grant those new petitions. A cascade of new generation rate hikes for the consumers would be much larger than the price hike threats of SMC.

The ERC made the correct decision. Thank you, ERC, for doing your job and protecting the consumers.

NGCP AND CONTINUING BLACKOUT THREATS

Last week, Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian urged the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) to increase the level of standby power available to it, that it “should not neglect its duty of contracting ancillary services so that we can ensure continuous energy supply and avoid the harm caused by constant brownouts to our citizens.” See this report in BusinessWorld: “NGCP urged to raise level of power available via standby contracts” (Oct. 4).

Senator Gatchalian is correct in his position that the NGCP should have a firm contract of reserve power exclusive to it, and that the frequent threats of blackouts are ugly. See also five reports and opinions in this column last week, “Economic freedom, power reserves, and declining births” (Oct. 3).

I saw the “Transition Report: Energy Sector Accomplishments for 2016-2022” section in the report “Areas of Major Concern for the Next Administration.” On the NGCP — the only remaining private monopoly nationwide via Congressional franchise — the report pointed out the following, among others:

One, the NGCP never heeded, never complied with certain Department of Energy (DoE) directives like DC2017- 12-0016, DC2019-120018, on a.) conduct of performance assessment and audit of power transmission operations, business and assets, b.) conversion of ancillary contracts from non-firm to firm, c.) conduct of competitive selection process (CSP) for the procurement of ancillary services, and, d.) requirements in the preparation and review of the Transmission Development Plan.

Two, NGCP argues that only the ERC has regulatory jurisdiction over them. But RA 7638 of 1992 creating the DoE mandates it as “the central coordinating machinery of the government for the implementation of energy policies and programs.” So, the DoE insists that its “policy-making mandate does not conflict with ERC’s mandate… ERC’s exercise of its authority necessarily must only operate within the bounds of policies and framework set by the DoE.”

Three, the NGCP as systems operator has a national security aspect. The original National Transmission Corp. (TransCo) Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) of equipment in transmission substations has been replaced by a Chinese SCADA system and it can “remotely control (turn on and shut down) all power plants and substations that are connected to the grid.” That is why the DoE and TransCo, as the owner of the physical assets, insist on having a performance audit of the NGCP’s new SCADA. The State Grid Corp. of China (SGCC) is NGCP’s technical partner and four of 10 NGCP Board members are from China, and six from the Philippines.

In 2021, the Philippines had a total power generation of 106 terawatt-hours (TWH). That year, Vietnam had 245 TWH, Malaysia had 177 TWH and Thailand had 176 TWH. These three neighbors of ours have smaller populations than us but have power generation much larger than ours.

Among the reasons I believe, are: a.) the NGCP delayed the construction of new transmission lines that results in frequent congestion of existing power plants, and can the discourage building of more new plants; b.) the NGCP not getting firm and exclusive contracts of ancillary services and is relying more on getting any excess reserves in the spot market which can be thin already.

The Transition Report proposes “unbundling the transmission sector by separating the system operator (SO) in charge of grid security, and transmission network provider (TNP) in charge of development, operation and maintenance of the transmission network and assets.”

I support that. Monopolies are almost always ugly. Under the government national monopolies like PhilHealth and SSS, people in the formal sector have no choice to opt out. Under the private national monopoly NGCP, power generators and distributors also have no choice to opt out from its inefficiencies.

BIG JUMP IN INFLATION RATES

Last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported the September inflation rate at 6.9%, up from August’s 6.3%. This is indeed high but is still only a four-years high compared to Germany’s 70-years high, the Netherlands’ 51-years high, the US, Canada, and the UK’s 40-years high, and France, Italy, and Spain’s 37-years high (Table 1).

The 6.9% inflation rate was used by some bashers of the Marcos Jr. administration and its economic team’s performance. This is misplaced criticism. One, our four-years high in inflation is among the more benign levels in Asia and the world’s large economies as shown in the table. Two, no price control was imposed, especially on oil products.

DOF-DBM CASH OPERATIONS AND DEBT PAYMENT

Last week, the Bureau of the Treasury released the National Government’s cash operations report (COR) and outstanding public debt. In the past two years, the budget deficits were P1.4 trillion and P1.7 trillion, while net financing or borrowings were P2.5 trillion and P2.2 trillion. From January-August 2022, financing has tamed to P1.3 trillion — hopefully it will not reach P2 trillion this year.

With high borrowings come high interest payments, P429 billion in 2021 and it might reach P500 billion this year.

The public debt stock has increased from P8.22 trillion in December 2019 to P13.41 in August 2022 (Table 2). It might reach P14.0 trillion by the end of this year.

The big challenge for the administration and the economic team is how to control the spending that leads to high borrowings and high interest payments. This can be done at least three ways.

One, reduce the size of many national agencies and let the local governments, which now have more funding under the Mandanas ruling, do more work. The Department of Budget and Management’s Bureaucracy Rightsizing program should materialize.

Two, reduce if not abolish old subsidies whenever new subsidies are created. The creation of a new welfare program is implicit admission that the old welfare programs are not working.

Three, reform and reduce certain entitlements like the huge military and uniformed personnel (MUP) pension. The pension of all retired civilian personnel in 2022 is P7.14 billion but the pension of MUP is P153.13 billion or 21.4 times larger than the former.
----------------

See also:
BWorld 561, Power demonopolization, privatization, and smuggling, September 27, 2022
BWorld 562, PEB in NYC, UPSE homecoming, and transport liberalization, October 04, 2022
BWorld 563, Economic freedom, power reserves, and declining births, October 06, 2022.

Deindustrialization 6, UK, Sept. 2022 reports

More reports, past UK government ecological central planning and energy rationing leads to current energy and economic predicament. Enjoy.
--------------- 

1. Earnings to collapse to 2003 levels as inflation batters living standards
Households facing worst hit for a century, warns Resolution Foundation
Tom Rees and Howard Mustoe  1 September 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/01/earnings-collapse-2003-levels-inflation-batters-living-standards/

2. Government’s green energy policy is a “national disaster”
1st September 2022
https://www.netzerowatch.com/governments-green-energy-policy-is-a-national-disaster/

3. Cost of living: Workers could be asked to layer up as bills soar
1 September 2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-birmingham-62737686

Tony Constance runs Stockfield Metal Spinners in Birmingham and said his latest energy quote was £734K a year, up from his usual annual rate of £135K.

4. World’s Second-Largest Steelmaker Closes European Plant
Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 02, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Worlds-Second-Largest-Steelmaker-Closes-European-Plant.html

5. Turn Off the Lights if the Wind Stops Blowing – Welcome to Net Zero Britain!
TOBY YOUNG 2 SEPTEMBER 2022
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/09/02/turn-off-the-lights-if-the-wind-stops-blowing-welcome-to-net-zero-britain/

6. Know why your fuel bills are soaring? 20 years of 'renewables' lies, says JOHN CONSTABLE
THE UK's energy crisis has been in the making for more than 20 years and is the result of the incompetent policies of Mr Blair, Mr Brown, Mr Cameron, Mrs May, and Mr Johnson, and all their hapless energy minsters and advisors too numerous to name.
DR JOHN CONSTABLE Sep 2, 2022
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1663771/energy-bill-energy-cap-cost-of-electricity-gas-are-renewables-more-expensive-Putin-gas

7. Six in 10 British Factories at Risk of Going Under as Bills Soar
Julian Harris September 3, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/six-in-10-british-factories-at-risk-of-going-under-as-bills-soar#xj4y7vzkg

8. Energy crisis: Can Britain weather the winter without blackouts?
Ben Spencer and Laith Al-Khalaf  September 03 2022
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/energy-crisis-can-britain-weather-the-winter-without-blackouts-nwhpww6k5

9. Energy crisis may force manufacturers to cut production or even close – study
Make UK said its research showed firms were warning that their energy costs have already “spiralled out of control”.
Alan Jones Sept 3, 2022
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/government-vat-italian-alan-jones-b2158821.html

10. Police fear hard winter of surging crime and civil unrest
Chiefs draw up emergency plans to maintain law and order as economic squeeze tightens
Harry Yorke, Dipesh Gadher and Tim Shipman September 04 2022, 12.01am 
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/07b8a936-2bb9-11ed-b39f-ae396665d39a

11. UK pubs must hike pint prices to £20 each or face closure this winter, expert warns
Running costs for pubs are set to increase by 500-600%, putting a huge number at risk of closure, says Tom Stainer, chief executive of real ale campaign group CAMRA
Harry ThompsonTrends WriterSara Odeen-Isbister. 4 Sep 2022
https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/uk-pubs-must-hike-pint-27903355

12. Energy crisis impacts Christmas celebrations as councils cancel light switch-ons
SKYROCKETING ENERGY BILLS have already impacted Christmas celebrations up and down the country as councils cancel light switch-on events.
EMMA CRABTREE Sep 4, 2022
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1664387/energy-crisis-Christmas-light-switch-on-ont

13. Six in 10 UK manufacturers at risk of closure, lobby group warns as energy prices soar
The MakeUK lobby group proposed a 100-day plan for the incoming prime minister
THOMAS BROOKE  September 05, 2022
https://rmx.news/united-kingdom/six-in-10-uk-manufacturers-at-risk-of-closure-lobby-group-warns-as-energy-prices-soar/

14. British energy firms brace for ANOTHER big spike in wholesale gas prices of up to 50 PER CENT today after Russians refuse to reopen the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe

* Gas prices could surge by as much as 50 per cent today after key pipeline closes
* The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is the biggest gas link from Russia to Europe
* The UK receives only 4 per cent of its gas from Nord Stream 1
* But other countries such as Germany are much more reliant on the pipeline
DAILY MAIL REPORTER 5 September 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11179745/Power-firms-fear-new-spike-European-nations-announce-raft-measures.html

15. GB News viewer calls on next PM to scrap 'mad dash' to net zero and frack for Britain's 'energy independence'
Linda in Cheshire told Breakfast with Isabel and Stephen that Boris Johnson's successor must tackle the cost-of-living crisis "first thing"
Max Parry 05 September 2022 
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/gb-news-viewer-calls-on-next-pm-to-scrap-mad-dash-to-net-zero-and-frack-for-britains-energy-independence/361640

16. UK faces recession as energy prices hammer factories and hospitality
UK's economic contraction led by the manufacturing industry which is heavily exposed to soaring bills
Tim Wallace. 5 September 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/05/uk-faces-recession-energy-prices-hammer-factories-hospitality/

17. Liz Truss to the British Rescue
Britain’s new leader faces an energy crisis and failing economy.
By The Editorial Board Sept. 5, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/liz-truss-to-the-british-rescue-u-k-prime-minister-boris-johnson-election-economy-conservative-party-11662388952

18. ‘Apocalyptic’: 500 per cent energy price hikes plunge schools into winter crisis
Skyrocketing prices force school leaders into 'unpalatable' choices to keep classrooms open this winter
Tom Belger. 6 Sep 2022
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/school-energy-bills-government-help-apocalyptic-rises/

19. The great wind farm rip off: greedy energy giants sell us wind electricity at wholesale gas price
The UK is facing an unprecedented energy crisis with a £100billion bailout set to blow the country's bank balance – and all the while renewables firms are finding huge profits literally blowing in the wind
Ben Borland  7 SEP 2022
https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/uk-news/great-wind-farm-rip-off-27889339

20. Britain Goes the Wrong Way on Energy Bailout
Truss price freeze ignores critical questions on conservation, funding
Javier Blas. September 9, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-09/britain-goes-the-wrong-way-on-energy-bailout

21. Thatcher would be turning in her grave: how the Tories embraced state intervention
After bank bailouts and furlough, we now expect the government to wade in when times get tough. But we may be storing up trouble for later down the line
11 September 2022
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thatcher-would-be-turning-in-her-grave-how-the-tories-embraced-state-intervention-hh03pb09f

22. The U.K. Can Slash Energy Prices – But Only If We Stop Sending All Our Electricity to Europe
ANDREW MONTFORD AND GORDON HUGHES 13 SEPTEMBER 2022
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/09/13/the-u-k-can-slash-energy-prices-but-only-if-we-stop-sending-all-our-electricity-to-europe/

23. UK Extends Life of Third Coal Plant to Secure Winter Electricity
Todd Gillespie. September 14, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/uniper-extends-life-of-uk-coal-unit-to-secure-winter-electricity#xj4y7vzkg

24. Truss energy bills freeze hands suppliers up to £1.6bn in taxpayer-funded profit
Companies' margin of 1.9pc preserved under bailout plan
Rachel Millard 14 September 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/14/energy-bill-freeze-hand-suppliers-16bn-profit/

25. HALF of Britons are finding it 'difficult' to pay their energy bills as Kwasi Kwarteng thrashes out tax-cutting 'Emergency Budget' for next Friday
ONS research finds 48 per cent are finding it difficult to pay their energy bills
Government has already acted to prevent energy bills soaring again in October
Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is drawing up an 'Emergency Budget' for next Friday
JAMES TAPSFIELD, 16 September 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11219231/HALF-Britons-finding-difficult-pay-energy-bills.html

26. Truss dismantles the eco ‘axis of evil’
Steerpike 16 September 2022
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/truss-dismantles-the-axis-of-evil-

27. Patagonia Billionaire Who Gave Up Company Skirts $700 Million Tax Hit
Devon Pendleton and Ben Steverman. September 16, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-15/patagonia-billionaire-who-gave-up-company-skirts-700-million-tax-hit

28. We just paid Belgium 50 times the going rate to keep London's lights on – how did it come to this?
We need a public enquiry to get to the bottom of Britain's energy humiliation
TONY LODGE  17 September 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/17/just-paid-belgium-50-times-going-rate-keep-londons-lights/

29. Jacob Rees-Mogg claims fracking opponents are funded by the Kremlin
Business Secretary accused those who oppose fracking of 'hysteria' and 'ludditery' and said drilling is in the 'national interest'
Rachel Millard and Tony Diver,  23 September 2022 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/22/jacob-rees-mogg-lifts-fracking-ban-bet-shale-gas-revolution/

30. Blindly pursuing Net Zero threatens to hasten the decline of the West and therefore poses an existential threat to the free world, says Mark Dolan
Sir Patrick Vallance, a man who in my view all but bankrupted this country with the disastrous and failed experiment of lockdown, is at it again
Mark Dolan  22 September 2022
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/blindly-pursuing-net-zero-threatens-to-hasten-the-decline-of-the-west-and-therefore-poses-an-existential-threat-to-the-free-world-says-mark-dolan/369952

31. UK motor groups call for more energy help as rising costs hit investment 
29 September 2022
https://www.ft.com/content/1f364365-2136-44d4-adbc-70f1ca9f946b

32. Shock therapy: turmoil engulfs Britishvolt’s £3.8bn battery factory
Future of company hailed by Boris Johnson as key to green industrial revolution hangs in the balance, as the first in our Electric Dreams series on Britain’s fledgling battery industry reveals
Jasper Jolly  29 September 2022
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/29/britishvolt-38bn-battery-factory-green-industry

33. UK weighs plan to drive down energy demand as winter looms
Ministers are concerned about browbeating Brits with energy demands so soon after tough COVID measures.
CHARLIE COOPER. SEPTEMBER 29, 2022 
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-mulls-energy-demand-reduction-plan/

34. The Headlong Rush to ‘Net Zero’ Makes a New Great Depression a Racing Certainty
ANDREW MONTFORD 29 SEPTEMBER 2022
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/09/29/the-headlong-rush-to-net-zero-makes-a-new-great-depression-a-racing-certainty/

35. Energy prices: Households turning to coal ahead of 'hard winter'
29 September 2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-63072561

36. Cold weather puts Scottish grouse breed in danger of extinction
‘Worrying’ decline causes capercaillie numbers to drop below 1,000 for the first time, with risk the bird could die out in years ahead
Olivia Rudgard, 30 September 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/environment/2022/09/30/cold-weather-puts-scottish-grouse-breed-danger-extinction/
---------------

See also:
Deindustrialization 3, United Kingdom, August 2022 reports, September 6, 2022
Deindustrialization 4, Other Europe, September 11, 2022
Deindustrialization 5, Germany, August-Sept. 2022 reports, October 03, 2022.

BWorld 563, Economic freedom, power reserves, and declining births

* My article in BusinessWorld last Monday, October 3.
-----------------

The Asia Liberty Forum 2022 was successfully held last week Sept. 29-30 at Shangri-La The Fort, sponsored by the Atlas Network and Foundation for Economic Freedom (FEF). Among my old friends from the US who came were Simon Lee, formerly with the Lion Rock Institute-HK, Philip Thompson of the Tholos Foundation, Joe Lehman of the Mackinac Center, Kris Mauren of the Acton Institute, Fred McMahon of the Fraser Institute in Canada, and Basanta Adhikari of Bikalpa in Nepal.

The day before, Sept. 28, there was an Economic Freedom Audit of the Philippines, presenting the results from the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) Index which is done annually by the Fraser Institute. EFW 2022 showed the Philippines’ global rank was No. 66 out of 186 countries and territories covered. It is higher than Thailand, India, Laos, Vietnam, and China.

But the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown is not included in the report. The two years of lockdown were a triumph of Big Government and saw the retreat of economic freedom. Many free market leaders themselves did not oppose the mandatory shutdown of many businesses and shops, mandatory stay-home orders, mandatory distancing, and mandatory vaccination. Mandatory means choice and individual freedom are zero or near-zero.

ECONOMIC FREEDOM DETERIORATION INDEX

I will attempt to measure and quantify the impact of mandatory shutdowns of many businesses (lockdown) and mandatory vaccination by introducing the concept of an Economic Freedom Deterioration Index (EFDI). A more direct term would be Economic Freedom Bastardized by Lockdown Index but EFDI is the more pragmatic term.

This is a rough measurement with limited components and countries covered. For this exercise, I use only four components: percent changes in mobility from the baseline period January to Feb. 6, 2020 of Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports’ 1.) Transit Stations (TS), and, 2.) Retail and Recreation (RR); 3.) GDP growth percentage points increase from 2019-2020, and, 4.) Gross debt/GDP ratio percentage points increase from 2019-2021 (Table 1).

I assigned scores of 1 to 5. The higher the score, the bigger the deterioration in economic freedom. For the four components, here are their respective scores:

TS: below 10 is 1; 11-20, 2; 21-30, 3; 31-40, 4; larger than 40 is 5.

RR: below 10 is 1; 11-20, 2; 21-30, 3; 31-40, 4; larger than 40 is 5.

GDP points increase: below 3 is 1; 3.1-6, 2; 6.1-9, 3; 9.1-12, 4; larger than 12 is 5.

Debt/GDP points increase: below 4 is 1; 4.1-8, 2; 8.1-12, 3; 12.1-16, 4; larger than 16 is 5.

Then the respective weights: I assigned TS with 15%, RR also 15%, GDP points decline is 40%, and Debt/GDP points increase 30%. The score multiplied by respective weights gives the respective index, shown in Table 2. The Philippines under the previous Duterte administration has the worst EFDI among eight economies covered.

Other researchers can expand on this and introduce more components and factors, assign different scores and weights, and cover more countries. I hope to do that someday.

POWER RESERVES AND TRANSMISSION ISSUES

Consider these columns and reports in BusinessWorld:

1. “The way forward for the power industry” by Romeo Bernardo (Jan. 26, 2014): “… ensuring that the systems operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) fully contracts what the system requires. The establishment of a reserve market has been long delayed.”

2. “Red Alert and EPIRA” also by Romeo Bernardo (June 13, 2021): “… the transmission line operator has not fully contracted firm power reserves. Where the system operator’s role is to procure reserves, much like procuring a genset for your home, to call on in a time of power crisis… NGCP over the past 10 years has been non-compliant with the rules… in the form of a lack of transmission lines, a lack of redundancies in our network, a lack of power reserves, and not meeting the IPO requirements under the law.”

3. “NGCP power reserve compliance inadequate, key legislator claims” by Angelica Yang (June 9, 2021). She quoted Senator Sherwin Gatchalian: “The NGCP (is) not contracting the right amount of reserves. Clearly, they are violating that policy… ERC (Energy Regulatory Commission) should now implement the policy. The foundation has been laid down by the Supreme Court that DoE (Department of Energy) produces the policy and ERC enforces the policy. In this case, since NGCP is not contracting, ERC should punish them.”

4. “DoE’s Cusi urges NGCP to meet reserve contract requirement instead of seeking Palace intervention” by Marielle Lucenio (Feb. 13, 2022): “The DoE requires the grid to have reserve power, known as ancillary services (AS) on tap committed under firm contracts. The NGCP’s position is that full compliance with the firm-contract requirement will ultimately raise power prices because of the expense involved in committing reserves. It said it instead proposes to tap a network of AS providers under firm and non-firm contracts.”

5. “ERC to NGCP: Explain failure to comply with reserve power rules” by Ashley Erika Jose (Sept. 19, 2022): “The ERC cited three sections of the DoE’s department circular which it said NGCP failed to comply. Section 4.2 requires NGCP to seek approval from the DoE on its ancillary service agreement procurement plan; Sections 7.4 and 7.5 mandate NGCP to seek the approval of the DoE on the terms of reference of the ancillary service competitive selection process (AS CSP); and Sections 7.1 and 7.11 require NGCP to complete the AS CSP within six months from the effectivity of the circular.”

As shown by the continuing yellow and red alerts in the grid until this year, it is obvious that the NGCP — the only remaining private monopoly nationwide — is abusing its power and showing continued insensitivity to the power needs of Philippine businesses and households. The new ERC leadership should go after them as the previous ERC leadership was too lazy to do its job.

DECLINING BIRTHS, CAUSES OF DEATH

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the updates on monthly vital statistics and causes of deaths of the country last Saturday. I count only data for January to April because the data from May-June are still incomplete.

Notable trends are: 1.) continued decline in births, 2.) some stabilization in deaths in 2022, 3.) continued erosion in net increase in population, 4.) big decrease in deaths from pneumonia, 5.) likely due to labeling of pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths.

Among the possible explanations for the continued decline in births would be: 1.) the reduced number of marriages in 2020-2021, 2.) fewer babies planned by couples due to economic hardships, and, 3.) possible adverse effects on fertility by COVID vaccines.

Declining births is a bad and dangerous trend. This will lead to less workers and entrepreneurs, and less producers and consumers someday. Government must study in depth its causes and quickly remedy the situation.
------------------

See also:
BWorld 560, PEB Singapore, the PPP Center, transport liberalization, and IPRI 2022, September 20, 2022
BWorld 561, Power demonopolization, privatization, and smuggling, September 27, 2022
BWorld 562, PEB in NYC, UPSE homecoming, and transport liberalization, October 04, 2022.

Tax Cut 36, WTA's Asian Taxpayers regional forum 2022

This is my presentation last week. Thanks to WTA President John O'Connel (TaxPayers Alliance, TPA UK) and Cristina Berechet, WTA Sec. Gen.

----------------

See also:
Tax Cut 33, WTA meeting and Asia tax competition, March 14, 2021
Tax Cut 34, Bidenomics and reversal of Trump tax cut, April 10, 2021
Tax Cut 35, Why oil taxes should be small or zero, November 18, 2021.

Macroecon 20, Strong US dollar and how to deal with it

* This is my guest article in Philippine Star last Sept. 22.
https://www.philstar.com/business/2022/09/22/2211288/strong-us-dollar-and-how-deal-it

Strong US dollar and how to deal with it
Bienvenido Oplas Jr.  September 22, 2022 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine peso has depreciated to 57.64:$1 last Sept. 20, an all-time low. The last time we have a similar level of depreciation was in October 2004, then July to August 2005 when the peso reached 56 to the dollar.

The difference in today’s depreciation with those 17 to18 years ago is that current depreciation is rather fast, and so many other currencies around the world have similar experience of fast depreciation, see this table showing year-on-year (yoy) percent change and all-time high (ATH) exchange rates.

Asian currencies exchange rate to US$, as of Sept. 20, 2022

Source: Trading Economics; years high are author assessments

The first question is why is this happening? What is driving the fast appreciation of the dollar?

The quick answer is the series of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve or its central bank, from 0.5 percent until about February this year to 2.5 percent last August, and projected to further rise to 3.25 percent soon.

Central banks and monetary authorities raise interest rates to combat high inflation, encourage people and businesses to save more rather than spend and this will hopefully cool down prices.

US inflation rate was only 1.4 percent in January 2021 but rose big time after 12 months of the Biden administration to 7.5 percent in January 2022. It further increased to 9.1 percent last June, a 41-year high, and cooled down to 8.3 percent in August, still a 40-year high.

In addition, the US government is borrowing and spending like a drunken sailor so it offers high interest rates to attract trillions of dollars of money. The US 10-year bonds was only 1.10 percent in January 2021 when Trump left the White House. After 12 months of the Biden administration, it increased to 1.81 percent in January 2022, and increased further to 3.56 percent as of Sept. 20.

So with high interest rates in the US, many dollar investments in the Philippines and other countries are pulled out and dollars fly back to the US to take advantage of higher returns. And that is how many countries’ currencies depreciated fast.

The next questions are: (1) Up to what level do we expect the Philippine peso to further depreciate, say by end-October at 59, or 60? (2) If yes, should we be too alarmed, and we should make more noise to pressure the Bangko Sentral to further raise its interest rates (already increased from 2.0 percent around February to 3.75 percent last August)  to 4.25 percent or higher?

I am not a finance or monetary economics guy but from the numbers that I see, my answer to the two questions are: Yes to #1, and No to #2. Consider the following:

One, US public debt has reached $30.9 trillion in August 2022, an all time high (ATH). It was about $28.4 trillion in August 2021. And US external debt is $23.9 trillion in the first quarter (Q1) 2022, also ATH.

US government expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 45.3 percent in 2020 (ATH), slightly declined to 41.4 percent in 2021. With high expenditures while revenues were falling, the US budget deficit as  a percentage of GDP has reached -14.9 percent in 2020 and -16.7 percent in 2021, ATH.

Two, a substantial amount of the heavy borrowings by the Biden administration are for unproductive spending like sending more money, arms and bombs to support Ukraine and Israel, Syria and other countries where the US continues its “endless wars” policy. Also to expand subsidies and freebies to domestic welfare dependents to win more votes for the Democrats in the coming November mid-term elections.

So high US borrowings, high Treasury bond rates, and high Fed rates, will continue to pressure currencies abroad like the Philippine peso to further depreciate. And a 60:$1 may not be far behind.

But this should not cause more alarm here because (1) we should prioritize growth and higher interest rates here will temper growth, and (2) dollar strengthening is temporary, something like built on soft sand due to heavy US government borrowings and debt financing, and not based on strong business environment there.

Very soon, some economic chaos will ensue there and those dollars will scamper out and go back to emerging markets where inflation rates are more tolerable and energy prices are more realistic and not stratospheric like what many EU countries experience now.

Will US and foreign funds come back to the Philippines stocks and equities market? From the above consideration, I believe the answer is Yes, and as soon as fourth quarter of 2022, latest by fourth quarter of 2023.

Are the projected GDP growth by the Philippine economic team of seven percent in 2022 then 6.5 to 8 percent by 2023 to 2028 achievable? My quick answer is Yes.

One, first half 2022 growth already at 7.8 percent, plus strong increase in electricity demand in July to September as proxy for GDP growth points to a seven to eight percent growth in 2022.

Two, Europe is moving towards deindustrialization, degrowth and blackout economics, so many businesses there will scamper out and go to Asia including the Philippines. These are big FDIs that will create more high-paying jobs here.

Three, the Philippines has good demographics. Big population size and consumer base, generally young age, English speaking and IT-literate.

Four, good economic liberalization laws – retail trade, FDIs, public service liberalization, CREATE laws – recently passed.

Bienvenido Oplas Jr. is an economist and a columnist in BusinessWorld. His email address is minimalgovernment@gmail.com. 
------------------ 

See also:
Macroecon 17, Germany's near half-century inflation rate, May 31, 2022
Macroecon 18, More gobal price instability, June 12, 2022 
Macroecon 19, UK and Canada inflation rates, Biden admin's 'expensive gas is beneficial', July 20, 2022

BWorld 562, PEB in NYC, UPSE homecoming, and transport liberalization

* My column in BusinessWorld last September 26.
--------------

Last Thursday, Sept. 22, another Philippine Economic Briefing (PEB) was held in New York, USA. This was a sequel to the successful PEB held in Jakarta and Singapore on Sept. 6 and 7 where some $14.4 billion worth of investment pledges to the Philippines were made.

President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., his entire economic team and infrastructure team, plus representatives of local conglomerates were there and gave the audience — business leaders in various industries, from manufacturing to finance and banking, real estate, etc. in the US — details on why they should come to the Philippines and invest here.

Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno gave a presentation on behalf of the economic team, and Trade Secretary Alfredo Pascual gave a presentation on behalf of the infrastructure team. Jaime Zobel de Ayala of Ayala Corp. and Sabin Aboitiz of Aboitiz Equity spoke at both panels.

Since the audience was composed of US-based business leaders, Secretary Diokno highlighted the fact that the US is the Philippines’ 3rd largest trade partner (merchandise exports and imports), 3rd largest source of foreign direct investments (FDIs), and main source of remittances by Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), professionals, and businessmen. He showed the numbers for 2016-2021. I came up with some numbers for some countries, then updated the data until 2022 (see the table). Data comes from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

One implication of the numbers — given the continued strengthening of the US dollar and sustained depreciation of the peso and many other global currencies — I think is that we need to further diversify our international reserves and international payment system and use less dollars and expand more use of China’s yuan, Japan’s yen, Korea’s won, and the Hong Kong and Singapore dollars.

I am not sure how practical this is, but maybe Philippine hotels, restaurant chains, and other companies can accept those Asian currencies from our Asian visitors and business transactions, then use those currencies when we buy goods and services from them. This way, many of our trade, investment, and remittance payments can be shielded from the continued strong US dollar and continued peso depreciation.

UPSE HOMECOMING 2022

The UP School of Economics (UPSE) annually holds an alumni homecoming, led by the UPSE Alumni Association (UPSEAA). After two years of COVID-19 lockdown, Homecoming 2022 — dubbed as BTS (Balik Tayo sa SE) — was held last Saturday, Sept. 24, at the school auditorium. It was sponsored by the Silver Jubilarians, batch 1997, and Golden Jubilarians 1972.

The first part of the day featured the launching of the coffee table book, More Than: The UP School of Economics, edited by eight alumni led by Professor Oggie Arcenas. Former Dean Emmanuel de Dios gave a warm description of the book and the people featured there, former Professor Winnie Monsod gave a very inspirational talk that walked the audience from the 1960s to the present, and the various alumni who joined the government and corporate world. Her talk can be summarized as: “UPSE DNA is Honor and Excellence.” Both De Dios and Monsod were my teachers in the 1980s.

More Than contains many photos of students, faculty, and alumni. Among the prominent alumni of UPSE who served in government are:

A. Former officials: President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (PhD 1985), Vice-President Leni Robredo (BS 1986), Supreme Court Chief Justice Lourdes Sereno (MA 1992), Ombudsman Conchita Morales (AB 1964), Executive Secretary Oscar Orbos (AB 1971), Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon Lopez (AB 1981), Tourism Secretary Bernadette Puyat (BS 1990), Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Nestor Espenilla (BS 1981), BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo (AB 1976), Finance Under Secretary Romy Bernardo (BS 1974), Pag-IBIG Fund CEO Zorayda Alonzo (AB 1966), Napocor President Gladys Sta. Rita (AB 1984), and Comelec Commissioner Rowena Guanzon (AB 1979).

B. Former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretaries: Gerardo Sicat (AB, MA 1958), Solita Monsod (AB 1959), Cayetano Paderanga and Ernesto Pernia (former faculty members), Dante Canlas (MA 1974), Emmanuel Esguerra (AB, MA 1981), Karl Chua (MA, PhD 2005), former  Undersecretaries Ruperto Alonzo (MA 1969) and Rolly Tungpalan (AB 1978), and many more.

C. Legislators in the 18th Congress, July 2019-June 2022: Senators Pia Cayetano (AB 1985) and Nancy Binay (BS Econ first two years), and Representatives Isagani Amatong (AB 1964), Peter Calderon (BS 1981), Jose “Kit” Belmonte (AB 1998), Roman Romulo (BS 1990), Stella Quimbo (BS, MA, PhD 2000), Bernadette Herrera-Dy (BS 1997), and Cyrille Zaldivar (BS 1999).

D. Current officials, Marcos Jr. administration: Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno (MA 1974), he was also a former Budget and Management Secretary and former BSP Governor; NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan (former faculty and dean), DBM Secretary Amenah Pangandaman (MDE 1999), and BSP Governor Felipe Medalla (MA 1976), he was also a former NEDA Secretary.

After the book launch, the homecoming program started. Key personalities of Batch 1997 include Edu Niala as batch convenor and Program MC, Ms. Herrera-Dy who elaborately and warmly introduced the keynote speaker, and Justice Undersecretary Nicky Ty who gave the closing remarks.

Keynote Speaker was Ms. Quimbo who is now in her second term as Representative of Marikina’s 2nd Congressional District and Vice-Chairperson of the powerful House Committee on Appropriations. She gave a partly written, partly extemporaneous, mind-tickling and humorous speech that elicited wide smiles and laughter from the audience. She particularly mentioned the UPSEAA Viber group and its dynamic exchanges, and later mentioned me and my occasional wild ideas — thanks Congresswoman Stella.

Jeffrey Ng — UPSEAA President and a big donor to many of the association’s fund-raising activities, and president of Cathay Land, Cathay Metal, and Astoria Resorts and Hotels — gave a report of the association’s major activities, scholarship grants, community service work, financial condition, and much more.

Batch 1997 performed a group song number while Batch 1972 gave a fast-paced dance number with mini-fireworks and brought the house down in admiration and appreciation. There was lots of food, lots of raffle prizes courtesy of many corporate sponsors, and a live band and professional events organizer. Really fantastic and successful homecoming event. Thank you, batches 1997 and 1972, and thank you UPSEAA.

TRANSPORTATION LIBERALIZATION AND MOTORCYCLE TAXIS

During the PEB in New York, one video showed Transportation Secretary Jaime Bautista saying that his department will launch “programs that will provide our passengers with accessible, affordable, convenient and safe public transportation.”

In the panel of the infrastructure team, Secretary Bautista discussed the six big railway projects — mostly under Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) — that are being facilitated by his department. These are good projects, they will transport hundreds of thousands of passengers daily. But most passengers do not live near train stations, they live many kilometers away from the stations and they cannot drive by car or motorbike to the stations because there are no parking spaces in those stations. They must take public transport and the cheapest would be the motorcycle taxis (MCT).

Currently there is a virtual MCT duopoly by Angkas and Joyride. A third and small player, Move It, has partnered with Grab and allies of the duopoly have launched their opposition to the partnership. These groups claim to be pro-commuter, but commuters and passengers are more interested in having more choices, more options, more competition. By limiting the competition to the virtual duopoly, commuters are penalized with less choices. There should be three, four, or five major competing players in the market and not just two.

WTA REGIONAL FORUM, ATLAS LIBERTY FORUM

This coming Wednesday, Sept. 28, the World Taxpayers Association (WTA) will hold the Asia Regional Taxpayers Forum online. It was supposed to be a face-to-face meeting and forum but was changed to a virtual meeting.

Among the speakers at the event will be John O’Connel, Chair and President of WTA. John is a young dynamic leader who used to head the Tax Payers Alliance (TPA) in the UK. Former Presidents of WTA were Bjorn Tarras-Wahlberg of the Swedish Taxpayers Alliance, and Troy Lanigan of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

The other speakers in the Asia regional forum will be: Liu Fengjiang of the Chinese Taxpayers Association Alliance, Raymond Ho of Hong Kong Momentum 107, Gobinda Sharma of the Nepal Taxpayers Welfare Society, Raza Ullah of the Alternate Solutions Institute (Pakistan), and this writer.

Then on Sept. 29-30, the Asia Liberty Forum will be held at Shangri-La The Fort, sponsored by the Atlas Network (US) and the Foundation for Economic Freedom (FEF). Among the speakers there are several friends from FEF like Romy Bernardo and Dindo Manhit, Basanta Adhikari of Bikalpa in Nepal, Anthea Haryoko of CIPS in Indonesia, Simon Lee of Unsubject Me and formerly with Lion Rock Institute, Hong Kong, Ali Salman of PRIME Institute in Pakistan, and Adinda Muchtar of The Indonesian Institute.

I miss old friends like Wan Saiful Wan Jan of IDEAS-Malaysia, Barun Mitra of the Liberty Institute-India, Parth Shah of CSC-India, Andrew Work and Peter Wong of LRI-HK, Xingyuan Feng of CASS-China.
---------------

See also:
BWorld 559, Build-build-build, extended welfare, vaccine discrimination, and liberty forum, September 08, 2022
BWorld 560, PEB Singapore, the PPP Center, transport liberalization, and IPRI 2022, September 20, 2022
BWorld 561, Power demonopolization, privatization, and smuggling, September 27, 2022.

Deindustrialization 5, Germany, August-Sept. 2022 reports

Deindustrialization and degrowth economics continuin in Germany. Read on.
------------

August reports

1. Germany Has Three Months to Save Itself From a Winter Gas Crisis

Now cities are cutting back on lighting and hot water in a bid to avert disaster.

Dezem, William Wilkes, and Arne Delfs  August 1, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-01/germany-heading-to-gas-emergency-with-russia-keeping-nord-stream-flows-reduced 

2. Germany’s Growing Energy Supply Uncertainty: Electric Heater Sales Up 1000%…In The Summertime!

By P Gosselin on 14. August 2022

https://notrickszone.com/2022/08/14/germanys-growing-energy-supply-uncertainty-electric-heater-sales-up-1000-in-the-summertime/

3. German Households Will Foot The Bill For New Gas Tax

By Charles Kennedy - Aug 15, 2022

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/German-Households-Will-Foot-The-Bill-For-New-Gas-Tax.html

4. Germany U-turns on nuclear in scramble to avert winter crisis

Recession now ‘unavoidable’ as country races to replace Russian gas

Rachel Millard and Tim Wallace.  16 August 2022

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/16/germany-u-turns-nuclear-scramble-avert-winter-crisis/

5. German Electricity Prices Spiraling Out Of Control…Tripling Since 2000… Blackouts, Unrest Loom

By P Gosselin 19. August 2022

https://notrickszone.com/2022/08/19/german-electricity-prices-spiraling-out-of-control-have-tripled-since-2000-blackouts-shortages-loom/

6. Energy Prices Trigger Deindustrialization In Germany

Irina Slav - Aug 19, 2022,

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Energy-Prices-Trigger-Deindustrialization-In-Germany.html

7. Germany Risks a Factory Exodus as Energy Prices Bite Hard

Aug 19, 2022

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/germany-risks-a-factory-exodus-as-energy-prices-bite-hard-1.1807657

Power and gas prices in Germany more than doubled in just two months, with year-ahead electricity -- a benchmark for the continent -- soaring to 570 euros ($573) per megawatt hour. Two years ago, it was 40 euros.

“Energy inflation is way more dramatic here than elsewhere,” said Ralf Stoffels, chief executive officer of BIW Isolierstoffe GmbH, a maker of silicone parts for the auto, aerospace and appliance industries. “I fear a gradual de-industrialization of the German economy.”

8. “Electricity Crisis”: German Wholesale Prices “Virtually Exploding”…2,347% Rise Over Single Year!

By P Gosselin 21. August 2022

https://notrickszone.com/2022/08/21/electricity-crisis-german-wholesale-prices-virtually-exploding-2347-rise-over-single-year/

9. Germany to Prioritize Coal Trains Over Passenger Services

ByVanessa Dezem. August 22, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-21/germany-to-prioritize-coal-trains-over-passenger-services-welt

10. ‘Political Suicide’: Germany Will Shutter Nuclear Plants Despite Looming Winter Shortages

JACK MCEVOY August 22, 2022

https://dailycaller.com/2022/08/22/political-suicide-germany-shutter-nuclear-plants-looming-winter-shortages/

11. German Power Prices Smash Record as Energy Panic Engulfs Europe

ByVanessa Dezem and Anna Shiryaevskaya  August 22, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/europe-gas-jumps-as-supply-fears-return-with-planned-pipe-works

12. German gas levy may be adjusted soon after implementation

August 23, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-gas-levy-could-change-soon-this-winter-newspaper-2022-08-23/

13. Germany and France have driven eurozone into recession, economists warn

August 23, 2022

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/23/ftse-100-markets-live-news-energy-gas-inflation-euro/

14. German government approves energy-saving measures to rein in gas usage

August 24, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-government-approves-energy-saving-measures-rein-gas-usage-2022-08-24/ 

15. ‘Don’t sacrifice Germany for Ukraine’ – German trade association asks Chancellor Scholz to end sanctions against Russia to save economy

Signatories of the open letter say Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world

DENES ALBERT August 22, 2022

https://rmx.news/germany/dont-sacrifice-germany-for-ukraine-german-trade-association-asks-chancellor-scholz-to-end-sanctions-against-russia-to-save-economy/

16. German Experts Warn Of Grid Instability…”Conventional Power Plants Needed For A Long Time To Come”

By P Gosselin on 27. August 2022

https://notrickszone.com/2022/08/27/german-experts-warn-of-grid-instability-conventional-power-plants-needed-for-a-long-time-to-come/

17. Tough choices for Germany as coal power stations return to keep people warm this winter
Germany is turning back to the world's dirtiest fuel to overcome its dependence on Russian gas, but the environment isn't its only concern.
Siobhan Robbins 30 August 2022
https://news.sky.com/story/tough-choices-for-germany-as-coal-power-stations-return-to-keep-people-warm-this-winter-12685534

18. German factories shut down as energy costs spiral out of control
James Warrington 31 August 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/31/eurozone-inflation-hits-new-record-energy-costs-spiral-control/

19. German factories shut down as energy costs spiral out of control
James Warrington. 31 August 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/31/eurozone-inflation-hits-new-record-energy-costs-spiral-control/

September reports

1. High energy prices: ArcelorMittal shuts down two plants in Germany
9/02/2022 | ArcelorMittal Germany
https://germany.arcelormittal.com/icc/arcelor/broker.jsp?uMen=7a770135-5051-5e71-9945-be470aa06ac3&uCon=b611ba70-782e-2810-a61e-481f0ad3a7b3&uTem=aaaaaaaa-aaaa-aaaa-aaaa-000000000042

2. "Exorbitant Rise In Energy Prices" Forces Europe's Top Steelmaker To Close Plants
TYLER DURDEN  SATURDAY, SEP 03, 2022
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/exorbitant-rise-energy-prices-forces-europes-top-steelmaker-close-plants

3. German blackout fears force JP Morgan to plan London move
American bank will shift work to the City if power outages affect EU's biggest economy
Simon Foy and Rachel Millard. 5 September 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/05/jp-morgan-prepares-move-workers-germany-london-amid-threat-blackouts/

4. Energy supply in Germany: bad luck for consumers
September 5, 2022
https://blackout-news.de/aktuelles/energieversorgung-in-deutschland-pech-fuer-die-verbraucher/

5. 21 Million German Households, Industry Suffer Body Blow As Green Energy Scheme Disintegrates
By P Gosselin on 6. September 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/09/06/21-million-german-households-industry-suffer-body-blow-as-green-energy-scheme-disintegrates/

6. Germany’s energy suicide: an autopsy
Pepe Escobar September 08, 2022
https://thesaker.is/germanys-energy-suicide-an-autopsy/

There is a so-called EU Electricity Market Reform in progress. According to it, producers of electricity – from solar or wind – automatically receive “the same price for their ‘renewable’ electricity they sell to the power companies for the grid as the highest cost, i.e. natural gas.” No wonder the cost of electricity in Germany for 2022 increased by 860% – and rising.

7. ‘Without energy, no economy can run’ – German companies warn of disaster as electricity and gas tap are ‘turned off’
“Every day we receive emergency calls from companies that are about to stop production,” said the president of the Central Association of German Crafts
JOHN CODY September 08, 2022
https://rmx.news/article/without-energy-no-economy-can-run-german-companies-warning-they-have-no-electricity-contract-could-signal-disaster/

8. Wave Of German Insolvencies Picks Up Speed…”Tenfold Increase In Gas, Electricity Prices”
By P Gosselin on 11. September 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/09/11/wave-of-german-insolvencies-picks-up-speed-tenfold-increase-in-gas-electricity-prices/

9. How Millions Of ‘Cheap’ Electric Heaters Could Crush Germany’s Power Grid
By ZeroHedge - Sep 13, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-Millions-Of-Cheap-Electric-Heaters-Could-Crush-Germanys-Power-Grid.html

10. High energy prices: Stadtwerke are getting into financial difficulties
September 16, 2022
https://blackout-news.de/aktuelles/hohe-energiepreise-stadtwerke-geraten-in-zahlungsschwierigkeiten/

11. Power Grid Expert: “99.9% Chance” Germany Will See Blackout… “Civil War” Unless People Prepare
By P Gosselin on 17. September 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/09/17/power-grid-expert-99-9-chance-germany-will-see-blackout-civil-war-unless-people-prepare/

12. Germany Seizes Rosneft Refineries, But Doesn’t Solve Its Oil Problem
By Alex Kimani - Sep 19, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Germany-Seizes-Rosneft-Refineries-But-Doesnt-Solve-Its-Oil-Problem.html

13. German industry suffers worst energy shock since 1949
Tim Wallace. 20 September 2022
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/20/german-industry-suffers-worst-shock-since-1949-putins-energy/

14. Germany’s “Tenfold Increase In Gas And Electricity Prices” Is Driving Out Industry
By P Gosselin on 23. September 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/09/23/germanys-tenfold-increase-in-gas-and-electricity-prices-is-driving-out-industry/

15. German Industry Collapse: Companies Leaving In Droves…”Can No Longer Bear Cost Explosion”!
By P Gosselin on 25. September 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/09/25/german-industry-collapse-companies-leaving-in-droves-can-no-longer-bear-cost-explosion/

16. German Manufacturers Struggle As Energy Crisis Persists
The country is already facing toilet paper shortages as manufacturers struggle to keep their doors open, and things are likely to get worse before they get better.
By Ag Metal Miner - Sep 28, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/German-Manufacturers-Struggle-As-Energy-Crisis-Persists.html

17. Germany to Cap Energy Prices as Industry Is Pushed to the Brink
Rising costs are bringing the country’s energy-hungry manufacturers and small businesses close to breaking point
Tom Fairless. Sept. 29, 2022 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-crisis-pushes-german-industry-to-the-brink-11664443801

18. Germany Unveils €200 Billion Package To Cap Soaring Energy Costs
By Alex Kimani - Sep 29, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Germany-Unveils-200-Billion-Package-To-Cap-Soaring-Energy-Costs.html

19. Germany agrees 200 bln euro package to shield against surging energy prices
Holger Hansen and Kirsti Knolle  September 30, 2022
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-govt-agrees-relief-package-response-soaring-energy-prices-sources-2022-09-29/

20. Colder, Wetter Than Normal September Pushes German Gas Consumption +14.5%, Winter Gas Outage Looms!
By P Gosselin on 30. September 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/09/30/colder-wetter-than-normal-september-pushes-german-gas-consumption-14-5-winter-gas-outage-looms/
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See also:
Deindustrialization 2, Germany, June-July 2022 reports, September 4, 2022
Deindustrialization 3, United Kingdom, August 2022 reports, September 6, 2022
Deindustrialization 4, Other Europe, September 11, 2022.