PhilStar 66, Coal and high growth, the numbers

Coal and high growth, the numbers

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

November 6, 2025 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2025/11/06/2485082/coal-and-high-growth-numbers

 

GDP growth is measured not only in percent change over the previous years but also in actual GDP size measured in billion dollars in current values or purchasing power parity (PPP) values. For this paper, I will compare the GDP performance of selected major economies based on their use of coal power generation.

 

Coal and economic growth

 

Two groups of countries are considered: Group A are countries that expanded their coal generation measured in terawatt-hours (TWH), or expanded the percent share of coal to total  generation or “C/T ratio” from 2004 to 2024, also experienced higher expansion of GDP size at PPP values over the same period. Group B are countries that decreased their coal generation and also experienced slower expansion of GDP size. Here are the numbers.

For Group A: China coal generation increased from 1,722 TWH in 2004 to 5,827 TWH in 2024 or 57.8 percent of total global coal generation of 10,613 TWH; its GDP size expanded from $5.21 trillion to $38.15 trillion or 7.3 times expansion.

 

India’s C/T ratio increased from 66 percent in 2004 to 75 percent in 2024, its GDP size expanded from $2.76 trillion to $16.19 trillion or 7.3 times expansion. Vietnam’s C/T ratio  increased from 16 percent to 50 percent, GDP size expanded 5.4 times. Indonesia’s C/T ratio expanded from 40 percent to 61 percent, its GDP size expanded 4.2 times. Philippines’ C/T ratio increased from 29 percent to 61 percent, GDP size also expanded 4.2 times.

 

For Group B: US’ C/T ratio declined from 51 percent in 2004 to 15 percent in 2024, its GDP size expanded from $12.22 trillion to $29.18 trillion or only 2.4 times expansion. Yes, China’s GDP size of $38.15 trillion is much larger than the US. Also in total power generation in 2024, China’s 10,087 TWH was twice larger than the US’ 4,635 TWH.

 

Germany’s C/T ratio declined from 48 percent to 21 percent, its GDP size expanded from $2.89 trillion to $6.0 trillion or only 2.1 times expansion. UK’s C/T ratio shrank from 34 percent to 0.7 percent and its GDP size expanded only 2.2 times, Spain’s C/T ratio declined from 29 percent to one percent and its GDP size expanded only 1.1 times.

 

So it is wrong to argue that coal energy can lead to economic underdevelopment because of environmental damage and health problems of its people. No, more cheap and stable power from coal means more growth and prosperity for the people.

 

PMCJ vs DOE on Atimonan coal

 

This week some climate activists including the Philippine Movement for Climate Justice (PMCJ) filed a case against Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Sharon Garin at the Ombudsman alleging that Ms. Garin has violated the coal moratorium order issued in 2020 by former DOE secretary Alfonso Cusi.

 

These people did not read the DOE memorandum dated Dec. 22, 2020 explicitly clarifying that only “greenfield” coal projects are covered by the moratorium, it did not cover “brownfield” projects and the following: “(a) Committed power projects; (b) Existing power plant complexes which already have firm expansion plans… (c) Indicative power projects with substantial accomplishments…”

 

The Atimonan One Energy (AE1) is a 1,200-MW ultra supercritical coal plant using the high efficiency, low emission (HELE) technology and is used worldwide including new coal plants in South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia and China.

 

That facility owned by Meralco Power Gen Corp. (MGen) once completed can save at least five million households (based on average monthly consumption of 150 kWh) from occasional or frequent blackout and be forced to use candles or generator sets running on diesel – the real dirty energy, not coal.

 

Secretary Garin should be congratulated, not sued, for enabling this long-committed beautiful coal project to proceed. I believe that Ombudsman Boying Remulla has the brains and wisdom to junk the petition of junk climate NGOs.

 

AP in Vietnam coal energy

 

One good energy news last week was the Aboitiz Power Corp. (AP) announcement that it will acquire 25 percent equity stake in Van Phong Power Co. Ltd. (VPCL)  from Sumitomo Corp. VPCL owns an operational 1,320 MW HELE coal power plant in Khánh Hòa province, Vietnam.

 

I say that it is good news because out of the top 60 medium to large economies in the world, Vietnam is the fastest growing of them all: 7.1 percent growth in 2024 and 7.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2025. So a Philippine company investing in the fastest-growing large economy in the world with large and rising demand for electricity.

 

The VPCL plant is less than two years old and has a 25-years power purchase agreement with Vietnam Electricity (EVN). the national utility. It can produce electricity equivalent to around four percent of Vietnam’s annual gross power generation.

 

ERC lowered contestability threshold   in the retail market to 100 kW

 

Finally, good news to expand consumer choice and electricity competition, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has approved a landmark ruling to lower the eligibility threshold for participation in the Retail Competition and Open Access (RCOA) and the Retail Aggregation Program (RAP) from 500 kilowatts (kW) to 100 kW average monthly peak demand.

 

The new threshold will take effect on June 26, 2026, more medium- sized enterprises and institutions can directly choose their electricity suppliers or aggregate their demand under the RAP.  ERC chairperson and CEO Atty. Francis Saturnino Juan has correctly put it saying that “by expanding retail access to more end-users, we are promoting genuine consumer choice and driving competition that can lead to better prices, improved service quality, and innovation in the power sector.” Congrats ERC and chair Nino Juan.