Consider the following countries with territory dispute with each other:
1. Philippines and Malaysia over Sabah. No war.
2. India and Pakistan over Kashmir. No war except occasional sporadic shooting.
3. India and China in the mountains. No war.
4. Russia and Ukraine over Crimea and Donbas regions. Big war.
5. Israel and Hamas over Gaza and other areas of Palestine. Big war.
6. Assad and ISIS over NWest (oil-gas rich) region of Syria. Big war.
What's the difference between 1, 2 and 3, vs 4, 5 and 6?
In 1, 2 and 3, the US, UK and NATO are not involved, or not heavily engaged.
In 4, 5 and 6, the US UK are involved, NATO too in Ukraine. So whenever and wherever the US is involved, very likely there will be war.
In Taiwan, I think 95-99% there'll be war there, perhaps within 10 years. Chance of no war only about 1-5%. US is highly involved.
Below, one of my slides in my talk about Forecast 2024 (economics, energy, etc).
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