War, War is Stupid, Part 3

A friend, Froi Vincenton of https://vincenton.wordpress.com/ commented to my earlier points in Part 2 of this subject. He wrote,

Some people didn't ask for war. Just look at the Christians and Yazidis in Musol and other parts of Iraq. They didn't call for war. They didn't want to defend themselves by exacting reciprocal response. They were all massacred. Those who are calling for 'collective' self-defense against organized, adequately funded terror groups (by both transnational terror networks, Islamic countries and OUR GOVERNMENT) are not warmongers or hawks.

If an organized group of more than 1,000 ISIS terror members were able to take several parts of Syria and Iraq and kill hundreds of thousands of Christians and Yazidis who didn't want to defend themselves, then there's a big possibility that an organized alliance of 10,000 to 50,000 members of diverse Islamic terror groups in Mindanao (who are being funded by Malaysia, the Philippine government and other transnational terror networks) could also massacre Filipinos and take over Mindanao or some parts of the country.

Poland didn't ask for war prior to WW2. Neville Chamberlain of Great Britain attacked those who were calling for the British government to stop Hitler. Perhaps Chamberlain also called them many names, including warmongers and chicken hawks. He tried to appease Hitler and then told his own people to "go home and get a nice quiet sleep". But then Hitler invaded Poland and started the Second World war.

There are people who want war or want to initiate war, and war is always a collective or group struggle. War is always initiated by organized, well-funded armed groups or even governments. Now if your response to people who call for RECIPROCAL RESPONSE is-- "go to war yourself and don't bother us" despite clear acts of aggression by WAR INITIATORS, now be ready to be massacred next.

The thing is, some people are simply afraid of the word "war". We know you don't want war. No freedom-loving or sane people want to initiate aggression or war. But what if war comes to you whether you like it or not? If you still don't want to call your response to war "war", then we can use other terms like RECIPROCAL RESPONSE or all-out response. Responding to war initiated by real warmongers or terror groups is not the same as initiating war. There's a term called the Fallacy of Moral Equivalency.

Many valid points by Froi, I thanked him. I support the current war by the AFP vs the BIFF, ASG, JIM, others, It is messy and many civilians are affected, true, but it may have to be done, These break away groups plus future breakaway militant groups. are somehow good because they help cleanse the MILF of the most militant, more blood-hungry elements, until the MILF is left with people who are open to the possibility of cessation of fighting, of co-existence.

The top leaders of MILF -- Murad, Salamat, Iqbal, etc. -- all of them are old and ageing. They have been fighting the PH government for 2, 3, or 4 decades, Endless war has been their life. They are tired, too tired, of the war, and this is the message they are telling to their younger MILF men -- enough of endless war. Learn to co-exist.

AFP/PNP war vs the militant, anti-peace agreement Muslim groups, Yes.

But AFP/PNP war vs Muslim forces that are open to peace agreement and co-existence, No.

Another friend protested what I earlier wrote, "people who call for war are also the most coward to go to a real war." I clarified that  if he and others are not calling for a new big war in the south, then my term does not apply to them. I refer to people who say, "why negotiate with MILF? bomb and shoot them now". And I still think that these people are cowards if they do not volunteer themselves or their kids to be at the frontline of a real war. Not for one day or one week but for months or years until their goal is achieved.

Even if there is no law on the peace agreement yet, there have been a number of new businesses about to come to some Muslim areas in the south. People there are supposed to be holding tractors or computers, not guns and bombs. That is why a peace agreement is necessary.

From this report, February 2, 2015:

"At least three foreign firms looking to partner with local businessmen have put investments on hold after the deadly clash...

Malaysian businessmen due to arrive on Monday to inspect sites in Cotabato city have cancelled their trip, Pasigan said. The group was looking to build small hotels and department stores.

Jordanian businessmen looking to invest in up to 50 hectares (123 acres) of banana farms left abruptly on Sunday without finalizing a deal.

Singaporean and Malaysian partners seeking to replicate their mini shopping mall business in Johor Baru said they were postponing their investment."

There should be more local + foreign Muslim investors. There should be more malls, more hotels, more agri-business, more agri processing, etc. in Cotabato city and outside the  city.

Those who are likely to invest in bangsamoro areas will be fellow Muslims, locals or foreigner from Malaysia, Indonesia, Middle East. It's better to have clannish Muslims holding tractors or computers, than clannish Muslims holding guns and bombs.

There have been proposals in the past to relocate all Muslims in the south to Sulu, Basilan and/or Tawi tawi so they can have their own country. Maybe sound proposal, but the Maguindanaos and Maranaos (from Lanao) do not want to give up their current land, and there are also differences among them Maguindanaos, Maranaos, Tausug (from Sulu), Yakan (from Basilan), etc.

Co-existence is the best compromise. It is happening even in  Malaysia, there are big population of non-Muslim Chinese and Indians there, plus other nationals.

Otherwise, I can support Mindanao to be a separate Republic, and it will be a largely Christian-dominated. And a Cebu Republic, Negros Republic, Panay Republic, and so on. The land area of each of these republics are at least 5x, 10x the land area of Singapore, which is a successful and very rich country. Being separate countries, they can have their own public policies and tax rates, competing with each other to attract more investments and visitors.

But since we have been engulfed with bureaucratism culture, it will be costly for people in Mindanao or Bacolod or Cebu to go to Manila or the rest of Luzon and vice versa. They will need a passport, queue at immigration, pay travel tax, pay higher terminal fee, and so on.

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In another thread, a friend posted this meme. Another war mongering one, supposedly from GRP.

They are suggesting that there is no more need for peace negotiations? That the option is endless war? Lousy.

Its bottomline is "why are WE even negotiating?" Implication is the AFP and PH national population have superiority over the MILF and Muslims respectively and hence, no need to negotiate, use that superiority to overpower them, militarily and politically. Irresponsible.

"give up a pieace of the country" is too emotional. The air space, land space, rivers, etc. in the area under the agreement (but not yet a law) will all be under the PH government. Not a single sq. meter of land will be outside the territorial jurisdiction of the PH government.

The BIFF left the MILF precisely because they do not want to obey the MIs. Umbra Kato was saying when he and his men broke away, "We do not want to obey you and your peace talks with the PH government. any question? You want to get our guns and overpower us? let's shoot each other to death."

So people expecting the MIs to "discipline" the BIs, and now the JIM (breakaway from BIs) are confused. Once an entity breaks away, it means it does not want to be disciplined by its mother or father entity. So to argue that (negotiation) is "totally pointless" because "The MILF... can't control the other groups." is misplaced.

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See also: 
War War is Stupid, February 16, 2015

War, War is Stupid, Part 2, March 06, 2015

MILF, PNP SAF and the Fallen 44, Part 4, February 16, 2015 

MILF, Fallen 44 and Napenas, Part 5, February 21, 2015

War, War is Stupid, Part 2

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War War is Stupid

Yes. War is stupid. Regardless of the justifications and alibi. War is stupid.

To the advocates of new "All out war" in Muslim Mindanao, other war mongers, may I advice that you try living in conflict areas like Mamasapano in Maguindanao or Basilan so you will see how ugly and brutal endless fighting can be.

Here is one story of an ugly war, happened only last month.

Shortly before the Mamasapano incident happened on January 25, Sarah’s husband, Badrudin Langalen, with his cow in tow, was on his way home from the cornfields to charge his cellphone when the SAF commandos, on the assumption that he was an MILF fighter, captured him.

When the fighting between the MILF and the SAF finally started, with his hands tied behind his back, the helpless Badrudin and his cow got caught in the crossfire.

He was only 21 – too young to die. Dying was probably the last thing on his mind. Death is too much of a punishment for being at the wrong place at the wrong time. In war, rules of engagement protect combatants who are incapable of fighting back. What protection was there for a wandering civilian like him?

Residents in Mamasapano claimed there were arbitrary killings and indiscriminate firing. While the assault teams were fighting the MILF in the fields, other soldiers on standby in communities opened fire, killing innocent civilians....

Today I chanced upon this facebook page of Major Harold Magallanes Cabunoc. The guy makes sense. I am copy-pasting some of his recent postings. To non-Filipino friends, this Filipino soldier is talking about peace and explicitly dislikes war as he has seen firsthand the ugly faces and places of war, Filipinos shooting and killing each other.

February 15, 2015

Sa mga nagbabangayang mga magkakapatid na Muslim at Kristiyano dito sa aking pahina, mas maiging intindihin natin ang kasaysayan ng Pilipinas bago dumating ang mga Kastila para maintindihan mo ang pinagmulan ng ipinaglalaban ng mga kapatid nating Muslim….

Panay gyera ang ginawang solusyon ng gobyerno ng Pilipinas sa mga nakipaglaban para sa kanilang karapatan, kahit noon pang 1970s. Hindi ito natapos at lalong dumami ang nasaktan, at lalong naghihirap ang Muslim Mindanao dahil pati ang maraming namumuno sa kanila ay sarili lang ang pinapayaman, at hinahayaang magiging mangmang at gumagapang sa hirap ang kanilang mga kababayan. Ang kanilang freedom fighters ay tinatawag nating terrorists. (Di ko sinasabing tama ang ginawa sa SAF 44 at pati yong pamumugot ng Abu sa Basilan at Sulu). Lalong dumadami ang radicalized dahil sa kahirapan at kamangmangan. Kung anu-anong armadong grupo ang lumalabas na mandirigma at ang iba sa kanila ay sinasakyan ng mga jihadists kagaya ng Al Qaeda at Jemaah Islamiya. Kapag panay gyera tayo, walang katapusan ang galit at bawian ng kapwa Pilipino. Lahat tayo talunan kapag gagawin nating All out War.

Kawawa ang mas nakararaming sibilyan sa gyera. Saksi ako sa paghihirap nila sa mga evacuation centers. Nakikita ko ang mga nawasak na komunidad at mga duguang mandirigma sa magkabilang panig. Nakikita ko ito dahil kasama ako sa nakikigyera sa kanila sapagkat ito ay aking tungkulin bilang sundalo ng bayan.

Hindi po military solution lamang ang kasagutan kundi negotiated political settement. Dapat matikman ng mga kapatid natin ang kapayapaan at kaunlaran. Hikayatin natin silang talikuran ang karahasan at pakikipagpatayan sa kapwa Pilipino. Hikayatin natin silang huwag kanlungin ang mga terorista at wag gumawa ng terorismo. Hikayatin natin ang sarili nilang mga pinuno na lagyan ng puso ang paninilbihan sa bayan, at patikimin ng taos-pusong serbisyo publiko ang taumbayan. Bombahin ang Muslim Mindanao ng development projects nang magkaroon sila ng oportunidad na makaahon sa kahirapan.

Hikayatin din natin ang lahat na Kristiyano na alamin ang tunay na kasaysayan ng Pilipinas dahil susi ito sa pag-uuwanaan.

Magkaisa tayong lahat na isulong ang kapayapaan at makamit ang hustisya ng lahat na nabiktima ng karahasan.

February 14

Mahirap makipaglaban sa kapwa Pilipino. Ang mandirigmang may puso, nirerespeto ang kaaway na hindi na lumalaban.

Ganito dapat ang ginawa ng mga mandirigmang nakalaban ng bayaning SAF troopers, lalo na at terorista naman ang pakay nila sa kanilang misyon.

Kahit saang anggulo tingnan, mali ang barilin sa ulo ang walang kalaban laban. Ikinagagalit iyon ni Allah (SWT). Sisingilin kayo sa oras ng kanyang paghuhusga.

February 12

Kaming mga sundalo, ayaw namin ng all out war na iminumungkahi ng iilang matatapang nating kababayan.

Bakit? Eh, matagal na nating sinubukan yan laban sa mga rebelde ngunit hindi naman umubra, at napakarami lang namamatay at nagsipaglayasan sa kanilang mga pamayanan. Yong mga namatayan ng tatay at kapatid ay malamang na bumabawi gamit ang karahasan.

Dagdag pa dyan, kaming mga sundalo naman ang unang mapasubo na makipagpatayan sa kapwa Pilipino kung hindi natin pagbigyan ng pagkakataon na magkaroon ang kapayapaan.

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My tolerance for war is zero, nada, blanko. More war means more hatred and intolerance, more violence and more government, more bureaucrats and war mongers ordering young people to shoot and kill other young people. More taxes and borrowings to finance endless fighting and destruction of properties.

For free marketers who advocate war, I question your belief in individual freedom. Why would you support further expansion of already BIG governments, to abdicate the use of reason and embrace more fighting and coercion?
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See also: 

Pilipinas Forum 8: On the Abu Sayyaf, September 11, 2011

Pilipinas Forum 19: The CPP-NPA, Sison and Maoism, November 09, 2011

MILF, Fallen 44 and Rule of Law, February 01, 2015 

MILF, BIFF, PNP and the Fallen 44, February 02, 2015

MILF, BIFF, and the Fallen 44, Part 3, February 03, 2015

MILF, PNP SAF and the Fallen 44, Part 4, February 16, 2015

Corruption in the military, Part 3

This news report whirled around the blogosphere the past 2 or 3 days. Marine colonel detained over calls to 'replace government'

He concluded his videotaped statement by quoting Jose Rizal: “If we have bad leaders today and in the past, it is not the fault of the many who know less but the fault of the few who know more but do nothing or who do not do enough.”

“What we soldiers feel is no diffent from what our people see and feel... We have a responsibility that we don't forget, that is to defend the Filipino people” he said.

Mariano added ominously: “At kung ang kasalukuyang pamahalaan ay walang intensyon o kaya walang naisasagawa upang isalba ang buhay ng nakakarami [And if the present government has no intention or could not do anything to save the lives of the majority] – it is the duty, it is the right of every Filipino including soldiers to replace the government, I repeat, replace the government.”

[Let us fight for our right to live and for the good future of our youth. Our aim is to live based on truth, justice, peace, and progress.]

"Let us once and for all build a nation based on truth for without it, there can be no justice. And without justice, we shall have no peace. And without peace, there will be no development," he added.

My immediate reaction when I read that news report was, here we are again, another brand of military corruption, corruption of their own mind and the public mind, that anyone with arms and organized enough can change a civilian government anytime, anyhow they want to. The disrespect for the rule of law -- like the Constitutional law on how we should change government, by the ballot, not by the bullets and bombs, not by armed rebels or mercenaries or bleeding heart soldiers.

And this is another instance or reason why the AFP-DND should shrink. There are too many aspiring politicians in uniform there.

Then I heard or read that the noise by that Colonel "is only the beginning." Beginning of more political destabilization, of more military adventurism at seizing state power?

My unsolicited advice to the new round of military adventurists is this: DO IT. Show how interventionist you are to supposedly change and replace an already interventionist civilian government that you despise. Rule of men, not rule of law. That is the main preoccupation in government, whether in the civilian bureaucracy, or the police and military establishments. Pare-pareho na lang sila.

Rule of law, not rule of men. That is what all of them should understand and respect. The internal mechanisms to control corruption from each agency or department for instance, should be respected. Then restiveness, valid or invalid, can be minimized.

On another note, retired military officers also should NOT serve in any government agency after retiring. They shd work in the private sector. Having been living off subsidized by taxpayers from their Philippine Military Academy (PMA) education to military to post-military career, they should try being net taxpayer, not net tax receiver. Perhaps a law can be passed towards this direction.

A friend commented that in Singapore, military officers would leave the service and take positions in the civilian bureaucracy. Then Switzerland is another example, where virtually all civilian high ranking persons also have had high ranking posts in their military.

Here, many retired AFP generals and colonels do not move to the private sector. They move to become officers in other government agencies, like the BIR and BOC, DFA, LTO, DOTC, etc. Those guys who got lots of money from taxpayers (P500,000 per year per student at the PMA alone or P2M/student for 4 years), then to the AFP with its billions of pesos of annual budget, then to other government positions. They don't understand the plight of ordinary traxpayers and businessmen. They think that for almost ALL problems, government intervention is the solution.
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See also:
Corruption in the military, part 2, January 31, 2011, and
Corruption, robbery investigation and suicide, part 2, February 08, 2011.

China Watch 14: More on the SCS/WPS Noise

Last week, I wrote this:

The "war dance" rhetorics over the Spratlys, and the huge lobbying for more tax money to buy more fighter planes, more battle ships, more missiles, and possibly, getting a submarine, is alive and kicking. Just observe these news and opinion titles and the word "war" is clearly emblazoned.

Picture above, Risk of war in the Spratlys by Rommel Banlaoi, Newsbreak, June 29, 2011. 

I told Rommel who is a friend, my observation that his article title is rather shrewd. It was not him who said that "risk of war in the Spratlys", that he simply quoted an analysis by the Lowy Institute in Australia. But he made it as the title of his article, and it was not even in the probing angle asking "Risk of war in the Spratlys?" Rather, it was a sort of affirmative assertion that there IS indeed "risk of war in the spratlys".

Picture below, East Sea disputes could lead to Asian war, Vietnamnet, July 4, 2011. "Asian war", tsk tsk. I have not seen any news report yet from other claimant countries like Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. Do they also call it as possible "Asian war"?

In this news report from the Inquirer, another "Asian war" mongering. Do the local media people really want a war, or at least prolonging the "word war" so they can sell more?

The lower picture is more alarmist, 
Global War on the Spratly Reef, Ground Report, June 23, 2011. Not just Asian war but it's "global war". Really? To involve possibly the Americans, Russians, Asians and Australians? wow.

These are all "war dance" rhetorics, and possibly, some government policies. BIG governments like the communist states of China and Vietnam, are not satisfied pointing guns on the heads of their citizens ("support the single party communist party or else"), they want to extend the guns to their neighboring countries. 

Now many sectors want the Philippine government to join the war dance, through what? MORE TAXES, more government fees, what else. Where will government get the money to buy more fighter planes, battle ships, ammos and missiles? Government is a penniless institution that becomes big and wealthy through endless confiscation of the citizens' money. For what purpose, to "fight poverty" by "developing" some islands and atolls in the Spratlys"?

We will soon spend less for the private education of our children, for the private healthcare of our families, for our simple joys in local or foreign travel, so that the government will have more money, more money to buy jet fighters and if possible, a submarine, to "develop portions of the Spratlys."

BIG government sucks. They fool and steal big time. From the man-made warming scam to the Spratlys war scam.

Meanwhile, here's a good article written by another friend who teaches at the UP College of Law, and specialization is international maritime law, Jay Batongbacal, PH correctly stands its (maritime) ground, Inquirer, June 29, 2011. Jay wrote, 

China posits its claim to sovereignty and jurisdiction over the entire South China Sea, enclosed within the so-called “nine-dashed lines” map, based on ancient Chinese voyages and maps made 2000 years ago.

But claims to sovereignty and jurisdiction merely on the basis of ancient explorations have no credence in modern times. They are inconsistent with the historical record demonstrating that such voyages were never for conquest or territorial acquisition. Instead, they were for trade with the diverse pre-colonial peoples who inhabited the lands around the South China Sea, some of whom later became the first Filipinos.

About a century before Magellan’s arrival, China stopped all its maritime activities and abandoned all its foreign interests. The Chinese lived in Southeast Asia’s coastal communities as traders, not administrators. Local sultans and datus controlled the waters, some even demanding tributes for passage. So if anyone actually controlled any portion of the South China Seas in the past, they were more likely our Southeast Asian ancestors, not the Chinese.

We need more legal research, more diplomacy work, zero additional military spending for the Spratlys. We better get 10 or 50 or more Jay Batongbacal type of legal experts and researchers and wage a strong diplomatic "war" at the UN, various international venue (APEC, ASEAN + 6, etc.). The communist government of China will be ashamed internationally if their claims are exposed as a scam. And we will not need even a single additional fighter jet to achieve that. Do not listen to the AFP-DND-allied bureaucracies' lobbying for more tax money for their spratlys adventure. The corporate military suppliers and their hosts in the war dance noise are salivating at another large scale robbery of Filipino taxpayers' money.

We're in the 21st century already and governments are still in the "let's go to war" mentality. Private enterprises like google, facebook, yahoo, youtube, wordpress, etc. are creating endless connections, friendly connections, among people from all countries, except those countries dominated by notorious communists like the China government.
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Today, I got engaged in a twitter debate this morning with Ruffy Biazon, a former Congressman. After I replied to him and Ces Drilon, a broadcaster from ABS-CBN News, our debate started. Below.

cesdrilon Cecilia Orena-Drilon
Pag asa Island in the West Philippine Sea as seen from the air. http://lockerz.com/s/119051391

ruffybiazon Ruffy Biazon
@cesdrilon That airstrip should be installed w/ anti-aricraft defense -- SAM, AA guns and radar.

Noysky Nonoy Oplas
@ruffybiazon @cesdrilon "airstrip should be installed w/ anti-aricraft defense" Really, u want more & higher taxes to finance war in Sprat?

@Noysky It's not financing a war. It is investing in defense.

@ruffybiazon "investing in defense" or investing in offense, the same. We cant even develop Sulu, Tawi-tawi, we want war to develop Sprat?

@Noysky Assertion over SPratlys in not just about owning real estate. It's about harnessing the natural resources there.

@Noysky Pagasa could serve as a forward defense post for our Malampaya fields, presently generating revenue for the Philippines

@ruffybiazon Palawan, Sulu, have nat resources too, we cant develop them even if we dont buy new jetfighters. Now we "develop" Sprat.

@Noysky Spratlys is within our claimed Exclusive Economic Zone. It will not become exclusive if we are unable to defend it.

@ruffybiazon agree that certain islands in the Sprat are w/in our EEZ. Let's hire 50, 100 top notch marItime lawyers, expose China at the UN

@Noysky NO we don't need jet fighters to develop SUlu and Tawi2. Problems there are local peace and order, not foreign intrusion.

@Noysky And I also dont agree that we need jet fighters now. We might afford to buy them, but we cannot afford to operate dem. AT dis time.

cesdrilon Cecilia Orena-Drilon
@Noysky @ruffybiazon there are anti aircraft weapons. Some are rusting, others are said to be working, though no test firing has been done.

@ruffybiazon Spend on top notch maritime lawyers & diplomats, not jetfighters. China can demolish all mil def but not legal battle at d UN.

@Noysky Diplomacy shouldn't be abandoned. But neither will it work by itself. We must be able to maintain our present hold in KIG.

@Noysky Our advantage is proximity and present occupation. We need to defend that advantage.

@ruffybiazon Atty Jay Batongbacal of UP Law wrote a good piece that can shame China over KIG, other islands. We need more minds like him.

@Noysky NO debate about diplomatic track in addressing Spratlys issue. But I stick to backing it up with an improved defense capability.

@ruffybiazon I like your Dad's position. The "battlefield" over Spratlys is at the UN, other intl. fora, not at the WPS or SCS.

@Noysky Then your understanding of his position is incomplete. Because we have the same position---use diplomacy, defend your property.

@ruffybiazon Basilan has 2x land area than Sing, but Sing GDP is larger than entire RP GDP. Devt has little to do with more EEZ, more mil.

@Noysky Basilan cannot be compared with Singapore. Apples and Oranges.

@ruffybiazon It's comparing RP & Sing. Use of Basilan only to highlight how small Sing's land area. Sulu archip abt 5x Sing land area too

@Noysky Even if its SG vs. PH. I have always been averse to comparing the two. Different factors contribute to situation of the two...

@Noysky .....Geographic location, strategic importance to neighboring countries, history, population...

@ruffybiazon By avoiding comparison, we refuse to learn what makes Sing, HK, etc. richer. Rule of law, dynamic capitalism, things we lack

@Noysky It's not a refusal to learn. But we should always pick the best, not swallow the rest. There's no fixed template.

@ruffybiazon Ok, cheers Ruffy. But I won't agree to more taxes to buy more jetfighters for Spratlys.

@ruffybiazon My pilot friend thinks air def over Sprat is almost useless, bit.ly/l5Iwmb. My last paper over Sprat, bit.ly/mhjdtC

@Noysky The PH Air Force /AFP/DND thinks its necessary to defend it. That's why they're planning to get jets. I agree w/ defense, not jets

@ruffybiazon I think AFP/DND just want more racket. They can't even eradicate NPAs, Abu bandits, rogue MIs, they want to take on China?

@Noysky I wouldn't resort to such cynicism abt AFP/DN.D Their mandate is to defend the country. We must give them the wherewithal to d

@ruffybiazon AFP/DND are instns with lots of corruption baggage, like Congress. NPAs since '69 despite tens of billions/year for AFP+PNP

@Noysky The entire government suffers from instances of corruption. But our fear of corruption shouldn't hinder govt from functioning.

@ruffybiazon Govt keeps expanding spending, doesnt mind huge public debt approaching almost P5T, int payment alone in 2011 P357 B already.

@ruffybiazon Endless corruption baggage, high int payment baggage, Govt shd slow down spending, live w/in its means, esp the military.
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See also:
China Watch 12: The Spratlys and SCS Conflict, June 08, 2011
China Watch 13: More on the Spratlys/SCS Conflict, June 25, 2011

China Watch 13: More on the Spratlys/SCS Conflict

These days, there are lots of media and political noise in the country about the Spratlys and "China bullying" issue. Two of my friends in facebook posted the Inquirer report today, China to neighbors: Keep out of Spratlys; Stop search for oil, sans permission, says envoy in their wall. I made this quick comment in their respective walls:

China is now the world's biggest lender country, the US now the world's most indebted country. China reserves of US treasury notes (ie, public debt) alone is at least $1 trillion. Who wants war in this country, because of those far away islands and islets? HK and Singapore are laughing at the Philippines, possibly at other claimant countries aside from China. Singapore land area is almost 1/2 that of Basilan island, and Singapore GDP size is larger than the Philippines, and possibly 100x that of Basilan provincial GDP. And here is a poor country Pinas who cannot even develop Basilan, much less other islands and provinces in its own undisputed territory, singing some war dance (aka more taxes for the military), wanting to extend its "power" over far away, very small islands, in disputed territories. Who are the spin doctors behind this idiocy?

A friend made a quick reaction to my post above: "US wants to get in. China wants US out. PH wants US in."

I think that China will laugh at the US when it comes in. The US cannot even engage for long a small enemy with oil, Gadhafi of Libya. The US cannot even exit gracefully in Iraq now; it cannot even defeat the Talibans in the caves and mountains of Afghanistan after it entered that country in 2001. And it cannot even find a way to cut its $1 trillion a year budget deficit (Federal government deficit alone). And we expect that it will want to adventure for long in the South China Sea? What for, oil? They already invaded Iraq for oil. What else, for tuna and blue marlin?

There were three comments in a friend's wall that I like.

1. This administration I understand, is tinkering with the idea of buying second hand goods to beef up the military. Laughable. The way the AFP is performing, it is better to abolish them altogether. Better to act helpless than pretend we have strength which nobody will believe. Better to channel he scarce resources in improving public education. -- Luwi

2. Bright idea Luwi. Gunless AFP is better. You win the psy thing. China will go nuts. -- Butch

3. We should forge a military alliance with China. With most of Filipinos having Chinese lineage even with the most mestizo looking once, China can be our protector, and we can develop. -- Ceferino

(China Ambassador to the Philippines, Liu Jian Chao, and Philippine Presidential Spokesman Edwin Lacierda, photo from the Inquirer) 

I tried these very rough conspiracy theories:

1. Is there any brewing scandal at the Office of the President or other big agencies in the Philippine government, and people's attention are diverted now to the Spratlys issue?

2. Are the few but powerful thieves in the government, so hungry with more tax money, they ramp up the Spratlys and China issue? Note that the 2012 budget will be submitted to Congress in late July or early August this year.

3. Is China so angry at the planned debt default of the US government, even temporarily, where China is the biggest lender government to the US? 

I am wondering if the spin doctors from all sides can give us ordinary mortals, some hints of what's going on.

As I noted above, the island-province of Basilan, clearly within the Philippine territory, zero dispute about it, we cannot even develop. It used to be the scene of kidnapping for ransom by the Abu Sayyaf, and fighting between bandits and some Muslim rebels with the AFP. Basilan land area is 2x that of Singapore. The AFP, the police, the national and local governments, cannot even ensure peace and order and attract more businesses and job creation in that island province. So why spend billions of pesos more for the Spratlys adventure? From Manila, those islands are even farther than Batanes in the north and Basilan in the south. By ramping up the Spratlys "war dance", it is clear that there are certain sectors and vested interests who intend to steal big time from us taxpayers.

Every year, the country's budget deficit is about P300 billion. Is this not enough? They want more military spending, more borrowings, and more taxes to pay those borrowings. Personally, I even plan the trips for my kids well as there are lots of taxes in gasoline and diesel products. Out of the P53/liter gasoline prices, at least P13 of it are government taxes alone (import tax + excise tax + VAT). What do they want now, more taxes in gasoline and other products to finance their planned robbery in the Spratlys spending? This is silly, if not crude robbery.

Some people insist that higher defense budget, "strong external defense is an obligation of the state, supported by a strong economy." At the current fiscal condition of the Philippine government, it is impossible to have a "strong economy" if 20% of the entire tax collections of the government every year is spent on interest payment alone, because of the huge public debt. From the remaining 80 percent of total tax collection, all sectors will fight it out for a shrank pie -- education, healthcare, housing, agriculture, environment, police, military, local governments, social work, public works, CCT, etc. That is why more borrowings have become the rule rather than the exception.

It is therefore impossible to increase defense or military spending without increasing public borrowings. Unless we privatize Camp Aguinaldo, the AFP and the Department of National Defense (DND) can use tens of billions of pesos of privatization proceeds for AFP modernization, and the the AFP, DND and their golf course will move somewhere else for their headquarters.

There is indeed a big challenge to "put the house in order." Government should learn to live within its means. Do not over-spend, do not over-borrow, do not over-tax, do not over-adventure militarily. Corruption, wastes and robbery in government can immediately be minimized by applying this simple philosophy. Just to have a zero budget deficit even for one year has become an "impossible dream" now. How come?
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A good friend, Sam A, aka "Abu Samy", made this reaction about the proposed "Spratlys adventure" by certain sectors in the Philippines. He used to be a plane pilot, so he knows a number of things about jet planes and fighter planes.

Ahhhh, national sovereignty and pride, what have you wrought? Challenging China? Seriously? With what? A couple of rickety PT-like boats, some tora-tora vintage planes, and a howitzer or two perhaps? Ok, ok, so that's why they're asking for more moolah to supplant our paleolithic fleet of combat material. Do they have a wishlist, i.e., offensive or defensive type of equipment, quantity, supply and maintenance, training, simulators, etc.?

To effectively defend the disparate and lilliputian Spratlys against a full-scale invasion (aircraft and destroyers) by the Chinese, we'd need at least two squadrons (~28 aircraft) of at the very least, Harrier V/STOL fighters to fend them off. The Harriers were roughly $40 million each WITHOUT ammo, armamaents (missiles & bombs), spare parts and fuel in the year 2000. That's roughly P2 billion each. You'd also need an air tanker or two of KC-135 Stratotankers ($40 million each w/o spare parts, etc.) to sustain the Harriers in flight.

And yes, the missiles (air-to-air and air-to-ground). We'd need a lot of Sidewinders (air-to-air) and Mavericks (air-to-ground) to fend them off. The Sidewinders are $100k a pop. The more sophisticated beyond visual range (BVR-AAM) air-to-air missiles cost $300K each. Maverick missiles are about $150K each.

Total bill? Roughly P350 billion for a 3-day war. And that mind you is IF the Chinese just send their MIG-21's to dogfight with the Harriers. If they send their new stealth fighter the J-20, well the AFP might want to purchase some F-22 Raptors ($339 Million each) and/or F-18 Hornets ($60 Million each) to mix it up well and win.

So much for wishful thinking...

I thanked Abu Samy for giving me permission to post his ideas here. We fondly call him "Abu Samy" because several years ago, while vacationing with his wife and 3 kids in a beautiful island-resort in Palawan, the Abu Sayyaf bandits struck and kidnapped more than 20 guests from that resort. Luckily, Sam and his entire family stayed in a far away cottage that the bandits did not bother to get as they prioritized the guests staying in cottages on the shore. In memory of their near brush with such traumatic kidnapping (the negotiations to end the kidnapping by the bandits lasted for many months), he and his friends adopted the "Aby Samy" monicker :-)

I told Abu Samy that perhaps the potential (or resident) big time thieves in the government are not that ambitious to "beat" the Chinese military as suggested by him. I have not heard or read from the "war dance" singers and lobbyists any amount closer to "P350 billion" for a 3-days, or even a 3 months war.

Me also thinks that the potential thieves would be contented with P10 B a year for 4 years as additional funding on top of regularly appropriated for "AFP modernization", as suggested or ordered by President Noynoy Aquino. Why? Because having a really "strong" air force and navy to match the Chinese firepower is not their goal. Their main goal is to get or steal X percent from P10 B per year.
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See Also:
China Watch 6: China-India Blog, Eco-Protectionism, August 30, 2009
China Watch 7: Rising Yuan, Economic Bubbles, April 07, 2010
China Watch 8: World's Largest Economies in 2010, August 16, 2010
China Watch 9: Liu Xiaobo, Human Rights and the NPA, December 10, 2010
China Watch 10: Is China Still a Communist Country?, December 21, 2010
China Watch 11: Big Brother and Inflationary Pressure, March 07, 2011
China Watch 12: The Spratlys and SCS Conflict, June 08, 2011

Corruption in the Military 2: Gen. Reyes Suicide

If a person is accused of large-scale robbery and plunder over many years as a top government official, the expected action from him is to defend himself from all the accusations and investigations. Committing a suicide can never be considered a "gentleman act."

Former AFP Chief of Staff, former DND Secretary, former DILG Secretary, former DENR Secretary, former DOE Secretary, and aspired but was disqualified nominee as party-list Congressman to represent bus drivers and workers, Angelo Reyes, killed himself this morning.

The on-going robbery scandals in the AFP that dragged not only him but also other former military generals, must have been too much for him to bear. Which is highly unexpected considering how he amassed so many government positions, from military to civilian posts. Meaning He has been in politics and political controversies for so many years now, that he was not expected to be too sensitive with all these investigations and accusations against him.

I will argue, along with other friends whose opinions were expressed in our facebook status, that to commit suicide with these investigations on-going, is never a "gentleman act."

A real gentlemen will admit mistakes and wrong-doing, if he indeed is guilty, then asks for forgiveness, before he will go to prison, or before he will kill himself. If he is not guilty, then he should face ALL those accusations and investigations.

Commiting a suicide is a lousy way out. But then again, the man has also rested. He requested peace from all these political noise and accusations. May he find peace.

But all the accused who are still alive should face the music. The rule of law must prevail. Those who stole and robbed should be penalized. Those who protect and coddle thieves, if exposed, should face the same penalty.

Endless corruption scandals make a mockery of the rule of law in this country and other societies. The law must prevail, people should be afraid of the law -- law against stealing, law against killing, law against many other crimes -- because the penalties are certain.
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Part 2:

Some of my friends in facebook posted their own opinions on the suicide of Mr. Angelo Reyes. Without naming names, here are some of those comments:

* Your greatest adversary is your own conscience, if you have one!

* He should have left a suicide note nalang. Video to be more credible, telling all the dirty deals para naman nasabi nya na he did something right before he died.

* Kung lahat ng nasa gobyerno gagayahin si Reyes eh di wala na ang gobyerno. Sarado na ang executive, legislative, at judicial departments! Babaha ng luha... Ng kasiyahan imbes na kalungkutan! Tears of joy ika nga.
(If all those in government will imitate Reyes, government is gone. The Executive, Legislative and Judiciary departments will be close. Tears will flood... tears of joy, not sadness.)

* Bakit di na lang gayahin ang mga samurai? (Why not imitate the samurai?) Public admission of transgression then the leader and all of his followers (equal guilt) kill themselves.

But there are also suicide sympathizers. These 2 guys are not my friends, but I find their comments worth responding.

1. Dead men tell no tales. Now everyone can blame him and he won't defend himself.

2. It is NOT suicide. It is a redemption of honor tarnished. He paid it with his life like the Japanese Harakiri. Appropriately he chose the site to pay the shame with his life. Redemption and forgiveness is his. We NO longer speak ill of the man. He paid for it with the supreme cost a man/woman can ever do.

On #1, if he was assassinated, then it is right to say that he can no longer defend himself from all those allegatins and accusations. But he killed himself, purposely, when he has all the chance to defend himself if indeed he was not guilty.

On #2, It is too preposterous to deny that it was suicide, that it was an escape from the responsibility of defending oneself from unfair accusations if indeed he did not steal big time from Filipino taxpayers' money. There is no honor whatsoever in running away from such responsibility. He owes it to himself, he owes it to the Filipino people to explain that he was not a theft and a corrupt official as he held so many high positions in government.

Nonetheless, whether it was cowardice or deep guilt feelings and conscience, it caught up with him.

May he rest in peace. It is a prayer that we the living can give him.

But the corruption cases against him, against his wife, against some of his subordinates and peers in the military, will not rest.

The rule of law must prevail. Those who violated the law against stealing, law against plunder, should face the consequences of their actions and crimes.

If we forget those crimes simply because the accused killed himself or themselves, then we will have a government of thieves who steal say P100 million. If he is not caught and prosecuted, he will steal another P100 million. If he is caught and investigated, he will commit suicide and hope that all his crimes and stolen money will be forgotten by the public.
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* See also::
Corruption in the military, part 2, January 31, 2011,
Corruption in the military (part 1), January 28, 2011.

Corruption in the military, part 2

A friend, an officer at the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), commented to my posting last week, Corruption in the military. I am posting his 2 emails to me, I only removed his name, position and a few lines that will pinpoint to his identity. My comments to his points in my next posting.

For now, I want to clarify -- I have apologized to him already -- about my earlier statement in the said article where I wrote, "I firmly believe that the military institution is deeply corrupt". It was my fault that I did not clarify that not everyone in the military is corrupt, that there are plenty of good and well-meaning officers and soldiers in that institution. But large-scale robbery scandals by some of its top leadership are enough to smear the entire institution because they are the leaders of that institution. Below is his letter. The two logos, I just added them here.

Noy,

Allow me to address you by that name, and please allow me to react a bit on your article. Am sure you won't mind hearing from the one who's within the organization himself.

Foremost is my assurance that I respect your views on the issue, and I could only share your frustration about it. Of course I am not to deny it, what organization is immune to it anyway? And I am not justifying it either. In fact I despise it. But if the President is corrupt, I won't say the whole government is corrupt in the same way. It would be unfair to Mr Right who's been fair all the way.

I could still remember the remark made by a classmate when we were still Lieutenants about a corrupt Commander. "Ang mahirap kasi bok wala pa namang napa-firing squad sa corruption". That was in the mid 80's and indeed until now I havent heard of anyone shot, much less jailed, for corruption. Correct me if am wrong, pero meron na nga ba? If anybody will be allowed to just shoot at will any corrupt person, and just be punished "distierro" in return, ang dami na siguro namatay at mas marami nagdalawang isip mangwalahiya sa di nila pag-aari.

Seriously, I guess the problem lies in the way we handle these cases. I am not a lawyer (and am glad am not) but any rational individual doesn't need a law degree to just wonder what happened to Estrada's plunder cases, the Arroyos' NBN ZTE deal and a truckload of other anomalous cases, I just hope the Reyes, Ligot and Garcia cases will not be lost in the four corners of the senate's walls, where lots of purported intelligent peoples are obviously simply grandstanding.

At my rank, I still drive an old 90s car, still line up at the different lending institutions to file loan for my kids tuition fees, and find pleasure to be able to treat my family once in a while to some cheap fastfood/QSR, to think that I've been a battalion commander in the mineral-rich part of Mindanao, received half a million quarterly battalion funds for a few years, and returned P3+ million in unliquidated CAFGU allowances back to the government coffers. I guess it would not be fair (for me) to be generalized as corrupt. In the first place, with what happened, the military was at the losing end because its the military's money that was lost, money that could have been used to send bleeding soldiers to a better hospital to get better chances of surviving.

Behind all these, I still believe there's a bit of hope for the Philippines, for the government, for the military. Positive change is not as elusive as we think it is. We can all make a difference.
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To start with, let us establish the fact that there is corruption everywhere, not just the military. The fundamental question that needs to be answered, is why corruption happens, aside of course from what they say that lust for wealth and fortune is human nature. Bakit nga ba nagkakaroon ng corruption in the military?

Unlike Garcia, Ligot and Rabusa, comptrollership is not my line. I am an infantry officer throughout and my specialization is merely to lead men in battle. But hearing from the comptrollers themselves, I can say without doubt that corruption stems from a flawed system called conversion. Am sure you are familiar with it but still allow me to give you a concrete example of how the system works.

As I told you before, I’ve been a battalion commander receiving about half a million funds per quarter. Strictly speaking, my unit should receive supplies and equipment in equivalent amount to support the operations of my unit. It should be good if the logistics planners are really that proficient enough to anticipate what my unit would need over the next 3 months. Unfortunately they’re not and that’s where the problem begins. They give us engine parts but it’s the brake system that fails. They give us papers but it’s the printer that breaks. Its where conversion comes in.

At my higher unit from where funds were channeled, we were given supports in cash, less 15% for clearing. It was not a matter of choice actually but a matter of practice. Simply stated, “here’s 85K out of your 100K logistics fund, buy whatever you want and we’ll use your 15K to clear”. Absolutely crazy for me but good for those having personal interest in cleared 85K without further accountability! And what’s the withheld 15K for? 3% VAT for the amount to be placed in bogus receipts, a portion for the boss’ contingency, a portion to the different offices that processes the clearing papers, including COA!

One time I received a written directive from the Army that P270+K is being released to my unit to buy communications equipment for my detachments. During the liquidation process, my supply officer was told that the account fund was for “repair and maintenance” so we should give COA receipts for parts and repairs. I went to see COA and showed them the directive telling me that I should buy radios and not for repairs. I was told, yes, but the account code used in releasing the money was for repair, so I should “produce” receipt for repair. “So you’re telling me to give you a bogus receipt for repair when you know for a fact that I bought actual units?” I was bluntly told yes, so yes I did. When the clearing papers were completed, my disbursing officer told me we have to give “something” to the COA so our papers will be processed. I felt like I just want to ram the papers down their throat!

As an institution, the AFP is not bereft with measures to instill integrity and professionalism in the service. It's part of every curriculum, from the pre-entry to all other courses we take along the way. Value formation is a major undertaking in military affairs. At the end of the line, it’s the person himself that matters. No matter how good the foundation is, exposure and open opportunity sometimes erodes the cemented will to resist. The door to temptation is left wide open and inviting to come in.

As I said before, tinyente pa lang ako, wala pa kong narinig na na-firing squad sa corruption. Malapit na ko mag-retire, wala pa rin. Eh papano nga naman matatakot? Of course I don’t mean that literally, but the message is there. Prosecute the offenders as deterrence for others. At the same time, the present system should be reviewed and shut the doors to temptation. I just hope Rabusa will not be another Lozada whose expose just went pfft. For the record, I don’t admire Rabusa because I am personally aware of his corrupt deeds. A lowly Lt Colonel amassing unimaginable wealth. I guess simply kicking him out of the service is not enough, he should be languishing in jail, together with those he is presently accusing.
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See also Corruption in the military (part 1), January 28, 2011