Saturday, August 15, 2015

Can UK hug socialism again?

One thing I appreciate about many European socialists is that they are more honest. Like Jeremy Corbyn, he's not hiding his socialism philosophy just to be popular. Not that I'm a fan of socialism. I'm for capitalism.

"Corbyn has hinted at a return to Clause IV, a Labour manifesto pledge committing the party to public ownership of industry that was scrapped by Blair in 1995...

suggesting the “Big Six” energy companies should also be taken back under state control....

significantly increasing spending on the National Health Service — rely on the potential to recoup revenue lost to avoidance and evasion and poor collection....

creating a National Investment Bank, with the power to issue bonds that would then be acquired by the Bank of England..."


Meanwhile, as many European governments become more populist, more welfarist, more tax-hungry, their economies suffer. 2nd quarter GDP growth: Germany 0.4%, France 0.2%, Italy 0.3%, Netherland s 0.1%. Eurozone growth target for 2015 is 0.3%. http://www.businessinsider.com/eurozone-gdp-q2-2015-2015-8

This confirms what I argued during the Ateneo Eagle Watch forum -- Europe's growth is towards flat, even contraction. Too many regulations and taxes, too many permits and government signatures, too many welfarists and eco-socialists. Europe grew and industrialized fast on a laissez faire, free market economic system. Let the most efficient, most hard-working people do their thing so long as they do not steal, kill, abduct, defraud people. Minimum regulations and prohibitions.

And the two most risky debt addict governments in the planet are ruled by socialist leadership, Venezuela and Greece.

Meanwhile, I have met Jeremy's brother, Piers Corbyn, a solar physicist, in a conference in NYC in 2009. While Jeremy is a climate alarmist, Piers is a climate realist and skeptic of "man-made" warming/CC. While Jeremy argues that CO2 is the main driver of the planet's climate, Piers argues that the Sun, and GCRs (galactic cosmic rays) are the main drivers of our planet's climate (warming-cooling cycle).

Piers looks like Einstein, long and ugly hair, nerd-looking, has lots of Greek equations in his presentations.

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See also:
Welfarism 10: Spanish Problem, the Euro or the State?, December 01, 2010 
Welfarism 20: Hollande and Socialism in France, May 07, 2012
Pol. Ideology 36: On Capitalism, Akbayan, Drugs Legalization and Toqueville, October 10, 2012

BWorld 15, The PH electricity market

* This is my article yesterday in BusinessWorld Weekender.
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The Philippine electricity market: MONOPOLY AND COMPETITION
  
ENERGY is development, and that includes electricity. It is not possible for an economy to grow fast and have sustainable development if its power supply and distribution are unstable and costly. Thus, having sufficient, stable, and affordable electricity is a necessary though not sufficient condition for economic development.

The Philippines remains to have among the most expensive electricity prices in Asia. Here are data with some breakdown also shown, including the cost of power generation, cost of grid/transmission, and value added tax (VAT) or gross sales tax (GST). Of the 14 major cities in North and Southeast Asia plus Australia and New Zealand listed below, Manila has the 3rd most expensive electricity prices -- 3rd in overall residential tariff, 3rd in generation cost, 3rd in grid charges, and 3rd in tax rates. 


Some reasons why other Asian cities and countries have lower electricity prices than the Philippines are as follows:

One, their government subsidizes electricity while the Philippine government imposes multiple taxes, royalties, and fees on power. The VAT rates are shown above, and royalties alone for Malampaya natural gas are as high as P1.45/kWh, and this is ultimately passed on to the consumers.

Two, Philippines power generation capacity is low, with total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2012 for instance only 0.44 tons of oil equivalent (toe) per person per year. Indonesia has twice, Thailand has four times, Malaysia has six times, and Singapore has 11 times that amount.

So with these two factors -- high electricity prices and low power gen. -- average electricity consumption is also low, only 668 kWh per person per year in 2012. 

SUSPICIONS
The Philippine power and electricity sector is characterized by a mixture of competition and monopolies. Power generation is generally competitive with many generation companies (gencos) slugging at each other. Power transmission is a national monopoly via the National Gird Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP). And electricity distribution is reserved to geographical monopolies, mainly the 120 electric cooperatives (ECs) nationwide, the biggest of which, Manila Electric Company (Meralco), accounts for about 75 percent of total electricity sales in Luzon and about 55 percent nationwide.

The issue of high electricity prices in the country has resurfaced once again but in a different angle. In current practices, the various ECs and distribution utilities (DUs) have bilateral contracts with different gencos, and such bilateral arrangement is sometimes suspected of being “sweetheart deals,” wherein both the gencos and DUs benefit to the disadvantage of the consumers.

To address this concern, the Department of Energy (DoE), on the watch of then secretary Carlos Jericho L. Petilla, issued Circular No. DC2015-06-0008, “Mandating All Distribution Utilities to Undergo Competitive Selection Process (CSP) in Securing Power Supply Agreements (PSA).” The order was dated June 11, 2015, or about two weeks before Mr. Petilla’s resignation.

The general principles behind this circular are to (a) increase transparency in the procurement process, (b) promote and instill competition in the procurement and supply of electric power to end-users, (c) ascertain least-cost outcomes, and (d) protect public interest.

Entities that will be covered are ECs, private investment-owned distribution utilities (PIOUs), multipurpose cooperatives, entities within economic zones, and other authorized entities engaged in the distribution of electricity.

Aside from suspicions of “sweetheart deals,” some DUs and ECs have their own gencos. Cross-ownership of DUs and gencos is allowed in the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001. Two examples here.

One is Meralco, whose wholly owned subsidiary, Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGen), is targeting a portfolio of 3,000 MW by 2020. MGen is planning or constructing two other big power plants, the 1,200-MW Atimonan, Quezon, coal plant, and the 500-MW San Buenaventura, Quezon, coal plant, both slated for 2018. Another consortium, the Redondo Peninsula Energy, Inc., is slated to open its $1.2-billion, 600-MW coal power plant in Subic in 2018.

Two are the three DUs of Aboitiz Power -- Visayan Electric Co., Subic Enerzone Lima Enerzone, and Davao Light.

TAXES, MONOPOLIES
By forcing the ECs and DUs to undergo competitive bidding for their power supply contracts, the DOE hopes to break or minimize the practice, or at least minimize suspicions, of price-rigging.

This is definitely a welcome move for independent power producers (IPPs) which have little or no cross-ownership and control with ECs and DUs. They will have a fairer and level playing field in getting supply contracts. But while the goal is laudable, the circular will be unable to address other problems and contributors to expensive electricity in the country. Among these are the following.

1. High and multiple taxes, royalties, and fees imposed on natural gas and other energy sources and on electricity generation/transmission/distribution businesses.

2. Expensive electricity is also being imposed recently by RA 9513 or the Renewable Energy (RE) Act of 2008, wherein wind, solar and biomass are given guaranteed prices via feed in tariff (FIT) for 20 years.

3. Monopoly characteristic of ECs and DUs because electricity distribution is considered a “public utility” and, hence, protected by the Constitution and franchise laws. Abuse of power is a possibility that is always second nature to any monopolist. This will require amending the Constitution.

A compromise will have to be made, like having a transition period to allow the maturity of existing power supply contracts.

The long-term measures to address structural problems that lead to expensive electricity is to limit government intervention, to step back. Like amending the tax code to reduce or abolish certain taxes on energy, amending the RE law to abolish the FIT provision, and amending the Constitution to remove economic protectionism.


Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. heads a free-market think tank, Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc., and is a fellow of the South East Asia Network for Development (SEANET).
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See also: 

Friday, August 14, 2015

Penalizing pedestrians in Makati, Part 2

I already posted last March about Makati City hall officers and bureaucrats penalizing pedestrians crossing this part of Buendia or Sen. Gil Puyat Ave. The issues here for me are the following:

(1) NO sign of pedestrian crossing not allowed,
(2) NO info of any local ordinance, barangay or city hall that prohibits people from crossing this side of Buendia,


(3) NO warning of 1st time "offenders" who actually crossed the street, outright collection of penalty (about P250) or confiscation of  an ID is immediately imposed,
(4) NO warning of potential "offenders" who did not actually cross the street, outright collection  of penalty or confiscation of an ID
(5) NO distinct uniforms by the apprehending bureaucrats (like yellow shirts of MAPSA, blue shirts of MAPA, light blue shirts of the PNP), they wear different dresses, and
(6) Why impose lots of prohibitions, NOs, to ordinary people?
Ordinary people do not drive cars too often, they commute, so they walk in various streets to get to their destination at the shortest distance/time possible.

Here, one officer (the fat guy) harassing two ordinary people, they look "probinsyano" and may not be aware of the various prohibitions and NOs of Makati.


The older officer harassing another pedestrian.


Three officers here, one wearing an ordinary shirt (in stripes), the two are wearing red jackets, something like "Makati Action Center".


Two hapless pedestrians confronted by the city hall officers.


I saw this girl, she was about to cross the street but this officer in white collar shirt with no ID called her, so she did actually cross the street, but she was still penalized -- on what crime or violation? I approached the officer why he has no ID, he pulled it from under his shirt, his family name is Tan I think, I hardly read because he quickly returned it under his shirt.


What is the "public service" value of these officers? I think zero, or even negative. We taxpayers already pay for their salaries, bonuses, trainings and meetings, social contributions, future pensions, etc. We pay for all of those and they serve us with what? Penalties and harassment?

I think a better public service work for these and other city hall officers and employees is to clean this creek. I took this photo around late June this year. On the left of this photo is the Makati Central Post office; on the right is a small Makati public park, in the front is the Makati Central fire station where MAPSA is also holding an office. So it is a creek surrounded by government offices and properties, and it is so dirty.


These floating garbage and solid waste should be regularly removed because they largely contribute to frequent street flooding.


Opposite view of the earlier photo. The park on the left, post office on the right, and Buendia in the front, not far from where the "anti-jay walking" officers regularly position themselves. Buendia-Ayala intersection is half-block away on the left.


Are these officers members of MAPSA?
Incidentally, I attended this event last July 13 in Makati City hall open ground. My rotary club was among the sponsoring clubs of the event.


Acting Makati Mayor Kid Pena, can you stop this harassment-penalties of ordinary pedestrians? Instead of prohibiting people from crossing this side of Buendia, there should be a pedestrian lane instead. It's a traffic-choke area most anyway, morning or afternoon, vehicles do not drive fast there. There are many buildings and offices on both sides of this street, so there are many employees and visitors, even university students (CEU) crossing this street often.

And instead of using our tax money to pay for people whose concept of "public service" is public harassment, use our tax money to clear those ugly creeks, especially near Buendia-Ayala.

Thank you.
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See also: 
Towing 2: Confiscating Motorcycles, September 22, 2013


Thursday, August 13, 2015

Demography 24, The Maddison Project data

The Maddison Project, data on per capita GDP and world population, 1000 to 2001. There is positive correlation. More population is an asset, not a liability.


Source, Angus Maddison, 2004. "Growth and Interaction in the World Economy: The Roots of Modernity."
http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/other_books/Growth_and_Interaction_in_the_World_Economy.pdf

Statements like "Condition of the poor is worsening as the world modernizes" are jokes. Even the poor live longer, which means certain preventable diseases have been curtailed. Global development reaches the bottom, but not at the level that some people would wish to see. Same data source as above.


And statements like "As world population rises, world non-renewable (fossil fuels) energy shrinks" are also jokes. Maddison is a great no nonsense economic historian.


Some lessons from the Maddison data:

1. Government-sponsored population control is wrong. People are assets, not liabilities. More people means more producers and consumers; more entrepreneurs and workers. The real liabilities -- killers, thieves, abductors, etc. -- both rich and poor, private and in government, government should get them. That is the main function of government, enforce the rule of law, protect lives and private property.

The poor children, gusgusin, madumi, etc. that we saw several years ago are now the yaya/nanny of the kids, the family or office drivers of the rich and middle class, the construction workers, electricians, plumbers and security officers of residential and office condos of the rich and middle class. They are now the taxi or bus or truck drivers who move hundreds of thousands of people and tons of goods everyday. 

Many of the poor want to stand on their own, rather than become mendicants to politicians and government welfare programs. They can be the sari-sari store owners, public market or ambulant vendors, barbers, etc. Since they want to stand on their own, government should not require them annual permits, from barangay to sanitary to electrical to Mayor's permit, up to BIR, DTI, SSS, etc. permits. That is not how government works. It disables many of these people to become good, micro entrepreneurs, so they become poor, and government and politicians now come to give them various subsidies so they won't become poor. Ironic no?

2. Government energy rationing and cronyism of the renewables is wrong. As human population increases and modernity continues, need for energy rises. Renewables are good for outdoors -- the Sun as the greatest light at daytime, the Wind as greatest fan day and night. Indoors, so-called "non-renewables" are a great source of stable and cheaper electricity.

3. Government involvement in healthcare is good, especially in dealing with communicable or infectious diseases. For non-communicable, non-infectious diseases, more personal and parental responsibility + civil society responsibility should have greater role than government.
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See also:
Demography 20: Presentation at ILS, DOLE, on Population and Growth, November 19, 2013 

Demography 21: China Overtaking the US' GDP Size in 2014?, May 02, 2014 

Demography 22: Japan's Depopulation and Migration Policy, May 11, 2014  

Demography 23: The UN, Depopulation and Climate, May 03, 2015

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Russian economy, Putin and cheap oil

Among the big international economics/business news today is the drastic economic contraction of Russian economy, by -4.6% in 2nd quarter 2015. The economy already contracted by -2.2% in the 1st quarter of this year. This chart is from Bloomberg, August 11, 2015.


Main reasons for the huge economic contraction  -- low oil prices, economic sanctions by the West against Russia on Vladimir Putin's militaristic adventures in Ukraine, rapid exchange rate (rouble) depreciation, among others. Compared to the contraction in 2009 though, the last quarter's decline looked "mild." This chart is from RT, August 11, 2015.


The next three charts are from the European Parliament Research Service (EPRS), March 16, 2015.

(a) Turning points were 2008-2009, then 2014-2015.


(b) Russian domestic economy and exports are highly dependent on energy, oil and gas.


(c) The rouble fell (almost a collapse) in December 2014, recovered the next month , then resumed the depreciation in succeeding months.


And these charts are from the Financial Times, December 17, 2014.


Some lessons for Mr. Putin and Russian economy:

1. Global capitalism can be violently unpredictable but major shocks very often, are favorable to consumers, like the on-going low world oil prices. Another example are low world interest rates.

2. Military adventurism is bad, it invites adverse reaction from other major players in the world. The west's economic sanctions against Russia seemed to be more harsh than any military action.

3. BIG, highly interventionist governments can only fake some numbers and they only postpone minor shocks into bigger shocks later.

Climate Tricks 44, Scary predictions in 2009

We should be scared, very scared, very worried, of "man-made" warming and climate change. Hence, we should send more money to governments, the UN, Al Gore, WWF,Greenpeace, other planet saviours. We should accept more government environmental regulations, taxation, energy cronyism, and they will save the planet for us. 

Below are predictions by some noted climate crusaders. Links and screen shots of headlines are given for verification. Enjoy. Err, be worried. :-) 
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On January 2009 (6 1/2 years ago), top climate alarmist US scientist James Hansen said we should have "global flooding, widespread species loss... collapse of ice sheets..." Many of us should have drowned or been mutilated, not today but twi years ago. Very bright, precise, prediction.

Also 6 years ago, October 2009, the WWF (and its planet saviours in the PH like Lory Tan, Yeb Sano, Vince Perez, etc.) said the "point of no return" was last year, not this year or next year. Very bright, precise prediction. http://www.abc.net.au/.../five-years-to-save.../1108482

And also 6 years ago, March 2009, Prince Charles said ("man-made") global warming has already reached a defining moment. Very bright, precise prediction. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/.../Global-warming-has-reached...


July 2009 or 74 months ago, Prince Charles made this bright, bold prediction. We shd be very scared, very worried, only 22 months left... and capitalism and consumerism will kill us. http://www.independent.co.uk/.../just-96-months-to-save...

Former UK PM Gordon Brown beat all of them in giving clear, explicit warning. Only 50 days or end-2009, 50 days, to save the planet. Very bright prediction. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8313672.stm

Hoops, this Canadian MP and member of the Green Party, even beat Mr. Gordon Brown. Not 4 years, not 50 days, but only "hours" to save the planet. Prediction made in March 2009. These guys are very bright in climate predictions.  http://www.thestar.com/.../we_have_hours_to_prevent...

Thanks to this great article by Larry Kummer, posted in WUWT 2 days ago,
Six climate headlines from 2009 that tell us something important about the run-up to the 2015 Paris climate conference
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See also: 

Monday, August 10, 2015

Torre de Manila, rule of law vs high political noise

I have not been following closely DMCI's Torre de  Manila condo project and the political opposition hurled against it for being a "photo bomber" against the iconic Rizal monument in Luneta Park, Manila.

An Inquirer report yesterday said that "If the court rules against the Torre, it signals that one can lose one's property if enough people make noise."

I think that is a correct assessment. And if the court rules against the Torre, Congress should pass a new law that condominium developers should get a permit of approval from some NGOs, on top of many other permits from different local and national govt agencies. And some NGOs will find a new racket then.

I am not a lawyer but I think that court and government rulings should be based on existing laws and permits required, not on future laws or permits. Otherwise we should stop posting frank ideas in social media like facebook because there will be a future law that will create penalties 10x more strict than the existing penalties of the anti-cybercrime law.

Someone commented that losing one's property has "happened at least twice in Marcos' time, when the IPs of the North resisted the Chico dam and Cellophil projects until both were cancelled. They didn't invoke RA's and SC rulings too. Just their indigenous right to ancestral land, and the readiness to die for it. The constitutional provision and laws on IP rights came later."

This argument seems plausible except that it implies that many condo projects should be very expensive, there is a premium or add-on cost for risks of property confiscation or destruction that the developers will pass on to condo buyers and tenants. Nice proposal, except that people should not complain too much why so many people are squatters and cannot afford to buy even small condo units. Simply because there is high political noise, then rules that have been followed can be ignored. I think that is lousy thinking.

Restaurant food left over... be given to the poor?

There are proposals that government should force restaurants and bake shops to donate  their unsold food and bread, or "hardly touched" food, to the poor and hungry, before they close their shops. that this is better than throwing the food away. After all, there are many hungry people in the country, or in the world. Is this fair?

Sounds fair, but I will not support it. For two reasons.

One, food safety, even if "hardly touched" after being served to customers who paid for it, it may have some saliva contamination, that may pass some diseases to other people. 

Two, and more importantly, if you give free food regularly, daily (or nightly) to people, some may not work hard anymore as there is regular free food nightly anyway. Then they will text their relatives in the provinces, "Come to Manila (or other big cities), we get delicious, free food here every night."

This is on top of free or highly subsidized healthcare and education as there are more government hospitals and schools per sq. km of land in Metro Manila than the rest of the country. And that will worsen further the congestion (traffic, housing, etc.) in the metropolis.

Hence, we should NOT institutionalize freebies to people, do not encourage dependence and entitlement, as it will create more problems than solutions. 

The better alternative is to keep food prices low and cheap. Remove certain taxes, fees, permits, import tariff, food protectionism, etc. that only contribute to high domestic food prices.
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See also: