BWorld 661,Financing growth by improving revenue and controlling illicit trade

Financing growth by improving revenue and controlling illicit trade
November 30, 2023

My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/11/30/560451/financing-growth-by-improving-revenue-and-controlling-illicit-trade/

(Part 8)

There have been several positive developments in the Philippine economy aside from the 5.9% GDP growth in the third quarter (Q3) of 2023. See for instance these reports in BusinessWorld in the last two weeks: “Foreign investment pledges surge in Q3” (Nov. 15), “Tourism revenue tops P404 billion in first 10 months” (Nov. 16), “German businesses in PHL report satisfactory business conditions” (Nov. 16), “Around 80 infrastructure projects to be financed by MIF” (Nov. 17), “Marcos’ US trip yields $672M in investment commitments” (Nov. 21), “PPA profit nears P10 billion after rise in cargo volumes” (Nov. 23), “PEZA investment approvals surge” (Nov. 24), “BPO industry sees headcount growing 7-8% next year” (Nov. 27), “Philippines could reach upper middle-income status by 2025 or 2026” (Nov. 27), and, “International visitor arrivals breach 4.8 million DoT target” (Nov. 28).

Another development is the improvement in revenues in the first nine months of the year even without big new tax hikes, resulting in a lower budget deficit for the same period. Financing or borrowings have also stabilized below P2 trillion over the same period compared to 2020 and 2021 (see the table).

The government must control two big items in the expenditure side: interest payments due to high borrowing over the past three years, and controlling some disbursements like the burdensome military and uniformed personnel (MUP) pension because the active personnel here still do not contribute to their own future pension, the pensioners receive funds much higher than their last salaries before retiring, and it is tax free.

Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) collections this year have increased 7.2% over same months last year while Bureau of Customs (BoC) collections this year have increased only by 3.4%.

Illicit trade, smuggling, and the non-payment of the appropriate taxes are the major contributors for the BoC’s lower actual collections versus potential collections. Smuggling of tobacco products is a particular issue. See for instance these reports in BusinessWorld: “High tobacco taxes encourage smuggling, economist says” (Oct. 12), “PHL to lose P60B from illicit tobacco” (Oct. 18), “BIR confiscates illicit cigarettes” (Nov. 14), “LGU share of tobacco tax set at P21 billion” (Nov. 19), and, “PHL cited as among region’s leaders in curbing illicit trade” (Nov. 20).

The P60 billion/year in tax losses due to tobacco smuggling alone is according to Congressman Joey Salceda, chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means. He made that estimate only last October. In March 2021, his estimate was P30 billion/year.

The last report refers to a paper released two weeks ago by the Transnational Alliance to Combat Illicit Trade (TRACIT), the 48-page report, “Fighting Fakes, Contraband and Illicit Trade: Spotlight on The Philippines.” TRACIT is a New York-based private organization composed of big multinationals whose products are subject to rampant counterfeiting and smuggling like beer, whisky, fashion and accessories, pharmaceuticals, personal care, tobacco, etc.

In their report about the Philippines, they highlighted five sectors or products subject to heavy counterfeiting and smuggling: pirated products (software, music, media…), fake medicines, illicit alcohol, illicit tobacco, and illicit petroleum products.

Among their recommendations to control the huge illicit trade are: stronger border control by the BoC, improve regional cooperation and engage international law enforcement, invest in enforcement including intellectual property rights, improve criminal deterrence including anti-money laundering measures, implement coherent domestic tax policies to avoid substitution of illicit product alternatives, enhance transparency and accountability via corruption control, empower consumers through awareness and partner with the private sector, and improve the digital environment.

A tall order but all necessary steps. I can summarize these with one phrase: enforce the rule of law. The law applies equally to unequal people and firms, no one is exempted, and no one can grant an exemption. So, the laws on importation, taxation, intellectual property, etc. should apply to all players including friends of law enforcement agencies. Thus, the huge price difference between legal tobacco (the cheapest is P130/pack because excise tax alone is already P60/pack) and illegal tobacco (currently priced at only P40/pack) should not be happening.

The economic team’s growth target of 6.5% to 8% yearly from 2024 to 2028 and beyond should be retained. The ambition to create more new jobs yearly should be retained. Financing big infrastructure, financing growth is possible without new taxes or raising existing ones, just strictly enforce existing laws on importation, taxation, and anti-corruption. n

See also previous “Financing growth” papers in this column: Part 7, “Financing growth via more PPP funding” (Nov. 2), Part 6, “Financing growth: Maharlika Fund and SWFs from abroad” (Oct. 24), Part 5, “Financing growth: Reducing interest payments and spending control” (Oct. 5), and Part 4, “Financing growth: a rice tariff cut, an MUP pension cut, and reforms in excise tax in mining, oil, and coal” (Sept. 26).
-------------------

See also:
BWorld 658, Economic forecast 2024, November 27, 2023 
BWorld 659, Economic forecast 2024 (Part 2), November 29, 2023
BWorld 660, On Meralco PSA bidding and nuclear power development, November 30, 2023.

Dr. Romy Quijano on vaccines, Part 4

Another brilliant paper from Doc Romy Quijano. He's a Retired Professor at the Dept. of Pharmacology and Toxicology, College of Medicine, Univ. of the Phils. (UP) Manila; a Member of Steering Council, Pesticide Action Network Asia Pacific; Project Leader of Bioassay and Toxicologic Studies on Medicinal Plants, National Integrated Research Program on Medicinal Plants, among others. 
No date when he presented the ppt somewhere. Enjoy.
-------------

Scientific Investigation in Post Pandemic Diseases

Romeo F. Quijano,M.D. Professor (Ret.), College of Medicine University of the Philippines Manila (Slide 1)

This discussion is essentially about various clinical observations and descriptions of what the organizers of this webinar call “Post-Pandemic Diseases” and what appear to be unprecedented and unexplained increases in morbidities and mortalities at this time. Many doctors are asking: What is really happening here? Why are we seeing something different from what we usually see in our clinical practice? What could be behind these observations?

During the “pandemic”, especially during the peak periods in 2021 and 2022, practically every unexplained, excess illness and death is immediately attributed by the authorities and vaccine promoters to Covid-19, co-morbidities or co-incidence. Yet, it has become increasingly clear that the official explanations are not compatible with scientific and real world evidence. What seems to have been forgotten by many is an honest to goodness explanation based on scientific investigation anchored on true science and not on “corporate science”.

Science is about truth and a true scientific investigation means the· search for truth in a systematic and logical manner. True science involves basically 5 elements of what is commonly called the scientific method : (Slide 2)
1. Astute observation of objects and events,

2. Careful formulation of hypotheses (or explanation of the observations),
3. Valid and adequate experimentation and data (information) gathering,
4. Unbiased analysis of data and credible information from independent sources,
5. Logical conclusions.
(Slide 3)
This diagram illustrates these basic steps of the scientific method. Observation is usually followed by questions, then an attempt to answer the questions and formulation of a hypothesis that enables you to make a prediction of subsequent events. This hypothesis can then be tested by gathering data already available or by generating data with an experiment. Then of course you need to analyse the data gathered or generated which in turn enables you to make a conclusion. All these steps, of course, must be done objectively, honestly and independently, without any vested interest or biases involved.

Unfortunately, what we are seeing these days is the dominance of “corporate science”.
Corporate science or pseudo-science is characterized by manipulation of objects and events, vested- interest-driven and obscured formulation of hypotheses, biased experimentation, selective data gathering and analysis, and market-directed, pre-determined conclusions. Data are collected, generated, or even fabricated to support corporate objectives and achieve marketing targets. Arguments are not based on human logic but are predetermined by corporate interests. Information is not something that may be true or false but something that is created and packaged to sell a product or to accomplish a predetermined corporate objective.

(Slide 4)
Let me now try to present a brief outline of what a scientific investigation might be as applied to the theme of this webinar: “Emerging Post-pandemic Diseases”.

First are the observations:
1. “The Rise of Autoimmune and Immune Deficiency Syndromes”
2. “The Rising Incidence of Myocardial Diseases”
3. “Blood Clots, Hemorrhages, and Sudden Adult Death Syndrome (SADS) 4. “The Sudden Appearance of Turbo Cancers”
5. “Short-Term and Long-Term Genomic effects of Immunizations”
6. “Excess Death Data”

I will leave it to the next speakers to discuss the details of these observations. What I can say at this point is that these observations cannot just be explained by Covid-19 infection, co-morbidities or co- incidences. Nor can they be explained by the known risk factors that gave rise to relatively stable variations in statistical data of incidences and prevalences of the diseases or events over the pre- pandemic years. The basic question remains: what is really happening here?

(Slide 5)
The second step in scientific investigation is the process of formulating a hypothesis that could explain these observations. This involves a complex process that must be undertaken carefully. The basic question being asked by concerned doctors is: Why are we seeing something different from what we usually see in our clinical practice? Initially, several questions need to be asked and several hypotheses that could address these questions may need to be formulated. A valid hypothesis should be reasonably based on existing facts, theories and best available knowledge and not just a wild guess or an instant explanation handed down by those in positions of power or influence. It should be scientifically testable. It can either be supported or refuted by further observations, experiment, data gathering and analysis or by another scientific investigation. Different relevant variables or factors must be explored and analysed carefully taking into account the best available knowledge. This is quite similar to a process we often do as physicians in differential diagnosis

(Slide 6)
The third step is valid and adequate experimentation and/or data/information gathering that would test the soundness of the formulated hypothesis or explanation of the observations. However, experimentation may not be necessary in situations where experimentation carries with it serious ethical questions, when it is not feasible or when existing scientific data and other types of information are available and adequate to support the hypothesis. With respect to post-pandemic diseases, some sort of experimentation have actually been done which is relevant in trying to formulate a hypothesis that might explain the observations. For example, the covid-19 mass inoculations done globally was undertaken under an emergency use authorization, which, basically constituted mass experimentation of human subjects with covid-19 “vaccines”. This “massive” experiment, however, was done forcefully, haphazardly and with dubious scientific justification in gross violation of basic human rights, including the right to informed consent. As a result, it has become commonsensical that the emergence of post-pandemic diseases as observed by many concerned doctors and citizens was somehow related to this “massive” experiment. In addition, numerous scientific publications have concomitantly emerged revealing biologic mechanisms and pathogenesis that could explain the unprecedented increase in post-pandemic diseases. Furthermore, data from official sources and independent, credible sources of information have also come out which tend to support a hypothesis that could explain the unprecedented increase.

BWorld 660, On Meralco PSA bidding and nuclear power development

Nov. 28, 2023
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/11/28/560035/on-meralco-psa-bidding-and-nuclear-power-development/

We have four related energy topics here, and we go straight to them.

1. Proposed delay in Meralco 1,800 MW PSA bidding, “overcharging” allegation

About two weeks ago, Sta. Rosa Rep. Dan S. Fernandez hurled an allegation about Meralco’s “overcharging” and attacked its recent bidding for a power supply agreement (PSA). There was also a House of Representatives committee on legislative franchise hearing on these issues on Nov. 22. As background, see these recent reports in BusinessWorld by Sheldeen Joy Talavera:

“Meralco seeking speedy resolution of issues over ‘very crucial’ 1,800-megawatt capacity” (Oct. 17); “Meralco seeks bidders for 1,800-MW power supply” (Nov. 3); “Meralco forecasts 4.7% growth in energy sales volume by year-end” (Nov. 14); “Meralco baseload bid attracts interest from power providers with 3,000 MW in capacity” (Nov. 21); and “Meralco says rate setting is regulated, stringent” (Nov. 27).

I support Congressman Fernandez’s position on investigating Philippine deaths by the tens of thousands in 2021 that coincided with mass vaccination, and his position on reforming the military and uniformed personnel pension. But his ideas and understanding of electricity issues are warped and twisted. Here are his warped arguments based on a Nov. 24 press release from his office:

• The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) should pause, stop Meralco PSA for 1,800 MW of power supply because the conditions and terms of reference were “tailor-fitted” to certain companies and are “anti-competitive and discriminatory.” It is also a monopsony.

• The requirement that a power plant should be in commercial operation not earlier than January 2020 to May 2025 to participate in the bidding, excluding other old power plants from participating, calling it “trademarking, branding, tailor-fitting.”

Meralco answered these two points in a press release on Nov. 26:

On the first, the terms of reference is approved by the Department of Energy (DoE) before Meralco conducts the competitive selection process to ensure these are aligned with DoE requirements and standards and not “tailor-fitted” to favor select generation companies. That the ongoing selection process of Meralco is just a rebidding of a valid selection held in 2020, and the new process simply reiterated most of the provisions in the previous terms that were approved by DoE.

On the second, it is a DoE requirement to limit the long-term contract bidding to greenfield (five years before start of contract) power plants to encourage new capacities. There are six potential bidders for the upcoming competitive selection process.

From the two statements, I say that Congressman Fernandez is wrong and Meralco is correct in following the DoE guidance. There are six participants now because only six generation companies expressed interest. If 12 gencos submitted EOIs and they fit the TOR, then there would have been 12 bidders.

My suspicion is that the congressman is pushing some old power plants to participate even if they do not qualify for the terms set by the DoE. If those old plants win the competitive selection process and later conk out and cause regular blackouts, and many big investments fail to come for fear of more blackouts, will Congressman Fernandez and his favored old power plants accept responsibility? I doubt it.

Rep. Fernandez also alleged “P200 billion overcharging of customers since 2012” and that this amount should be given back to consumers.

Meralco in its Nov. 26 statement said its rates “undergo a review and confirmation process to ensure that they are fair and reasonable, just like other distributors, that it has no power to unilaterally set its own rates. All rates reflected in the electricity bills of customers are approved by the regulator following a very stringent and transparent process of public hearings.”

I encountered that “P100+ billion Meralco overcharging” earlier. See this column’s two pieces this year: “Low power supply and Meralco distribution cost” (April 3); and “More on Meralco distribution charges and energy transition” (April 17).

I will show again the disaggregation of total Meralco charges from 2012 to July 2018. The numbers show the following: One, there was no big increase in overall price, from P11/kWh in 2012 to P11.52 in 2018; two, there was no big increase in Meralco distribution, supply and metering (DSM) charges, from P2.18/kWh in 2012 to P2.28/kWh in 2018. And three, generally flat generation and transmission charges.

What can be charged as real “overcharging” is the universal charge in missionary electrification and the subsidy to customers of off-grid islands and provinces in the country — from only 12 centavos/kWh in 2012 to 44 centavos/kWh in 2018. The feed-in tariff allowance (FIT-All) or subsidies for intermittent power like wind and solar also increased during the period.

So there was no room for “overcharging” in the overall rates in the Meralco DSM. The “overcharging” by P100+ billion allegation is simply a warped, garbled and fictional narrative that is driven by politics and not by economics and actual numbers.

The Meralco competitive selection process should proceed.

2. DoE-USAID forum on “Advancing Energy Security through Championing Local Actions”

This was held on Nov. 17 at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in BGC, Taguig City. It is good that USAID is helping local government units innovate more on local energy efficiency and conservation plan and energy management. But there is one problem here — LGUs are encouraged to focus more on energy conservation and even consumption cuts, instead of expanding more power generation from more sources.

Big LGUs like the cities of Iloilo, Bacolod, Cebu and Davao should attract more big investments from both FDIs and local businesses. But if they see blackouts just around the corner due to insufficient power supply, or they must buy big generator sets and automatically raise their capex and opex and hence, the cost of business, very likely many potential investors will not come. LGUs will lose, not benefit, from this situation.

3. DoE-US cooperation on harnessing civilian nuclear power for sustainable development or “Agreement 123”

On Oct. 16, Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla signed that bilateral agreement with the US during President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s attendance at the APEC summit. The agreement covers not just nuclear power development but also nuclear technology application in plant breeding, livestock production, insect pest control, soil and crop management, food safety, health and medicine, and many more. Beautiful move, Secretary Lotilla.

4. Pandesal Forum on nuclear energy

On Nov. 24, I attended the Pandesal Forum on nuclear energy. The main speakers were Congressman Mark O. Cojuangco, chairman of the House special committee on nuclear energy, and Gayle Certeza, lead convenor of Alpas Pinas, a nuclear energy education and advocacy NGO. Wilson Flores was the moderator.

As background, see these recent reports in BusinessWorld: “Nuclear deal seen addressing PHL need for baseload power” (Nov. 19), “House approves bill creating nuclear regulator” (Nov. 22).

The proposed “Philippine National Nuclear Energy Safety Act” (House Bill 9293, passed on third reading) seeks to establish the Philippine Atomic Regulatory Authority, which will have “sole and exclusive jurisdiction to exercise regulatory control for the peaceful, safe and secure uses of nuclear energy and radiation sources.”

This is a beautiful bill and must become a law. It will complement DoE-US Agreement 123. I support the pivot to nuclear power development, whether large nuclear plants of 1,000 MW, or small modular reactors (SMR) of 20-40 MW, or micro modular reactors of 5 MW or less. Stable, reliable, running 24/7 at competitive prices. We need them, especially on off-grid islands. They should have SMRs so we can abolish the UC-ME someday, now at 22 centavos/kWh when it should be zero.
------------- 

See also:
BWorld 657, Energizing growth via grid ‘demonopolization’ and ‘declimatism’ policies, November 26, 2023
BWorld 658, Economic forecast 2024, November 27, 2023 
BWorld 659, Economic forecast 2024 (Part 2), November 29, 2023.

Climate 105, On COP 28, $1 trillion loss-damage fund, ESG

The UNFCCC COP 28 meeting is starting today in Dubai. As usual, it will be a prolonged meeting about money, how many $ billion yearly from countries X to countries Y. Enjoy these reports.
--------

Woke capitalism's comeuppance: investments in trendy 'ESG' assets collapsed by $5 trillion in just two years, as Republican backlash and tumbling wind and solar stocks upend the sector

Global ESG assets fell from $35.3 trillion to $30.3 trillion between 2020 and 2022

They are now declining in market share by 5 percent each year, report says  

By JAMES REINL 29 November 2023
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-12805397/Woke-capitalism-comeuppance-invest-ESG-asset-5-trillion-Republican-backlash-wind-solar-stocks.html

 

Volkswagen to reduce headcount at 'no longer competitive' VW brand
Reuters November 28, 2023
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-signals-staff-reductions-union-meeting-spiegel-2023-11-27/

Loss & Damage Fund will be key test for COP28 success on climate finance

Finance is set to be at the heart of COP28, the UN climate summit starting on Thursday in Dubai, with economists saying that around $1 trillion per year is needed to support developing countries in their fight against climate change.
By Isabel da Silva 27/11/2023
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/11/27/climate-funds-for-developing-countries-will-be-a-key-focus-at-cop28

Germany’s Lindner signals government to suspend debt brake for 2023
As Germany grapples with a budget crisis, the finance minister said the government will declare an ‘extraordinary emergency.’
BY HANS VON DER BURCHARD NOVEMBER 23, 2023
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-christian-linder-supplementary-budget-for-this-year-following-budget-crisis/

-----------

See also:
Climate 102, Climate money expectation, from $100 B/year to trillion+ per year, October 28, 2021
Climate 103, Ozone level variation due to natural, not man-made factors, June 26, 2023
Climate 104, Global boiling, wow, September 04, 2023.

BWorld 659, Economic forecast 2024 (Part 2)

Economic forecast 2024
November 24, 2023 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/11/24/559364/economic-forecast-2024-2/

(Part 2)

On Nov. 22, I attended part of the BusinessWorld Economic Forum (BWEF) 2023 which had the theme “Forecast 2024” at Grand Hyatt in BGC Taguig City, and Stratbase’s “Pilipinas Conference 2023” at The Peninsula Manila in Makati City. Since they occurred on the same day, I chose certain sessions from each to attend.

In the morning, the Stratbase conference featured the government economic and infrastructure teams while the BWEF featured the regional heads of multilaterals Asian Development Bank (ADB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank (WB).

Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno reiterated that the Philippines is one of the fastest-growing countries in the fastest-growing region in the world. Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman said that their priorities are Procurement law amendments, government rightsizing, cash budgeting, and open government partnership (OGP). She said that these will complement fiscal consolidation and help keep the fast growth trajectory and sustain it, create more jobs and reduce poverty.

In the afternoon at the BWEF, I watched the panel on “Equipping energy for greater demand” and the speakers were Anthony Oundjian of Boston Consulting, Emmanuel Rubio of Aboitiz Power Corp., and John Eric Francia of ACEN.

I was surprised by Mr. Oundjian’s opening slide about a “current energy crisis” because I do not believe there is an energy crisis (or an oil crisis, a transport crisis, a food crisis, a health crisis, a climate crisis…). These are hiccups where cheap energy like oil and gas from Russia were shunned due to politics and the war.

Mr. Francia said that for 2024, the normalized growth is between 5-6% and there is adequate supply to address higher electricity demand, and that his company will have 1,000 MW of new renewable energy (RE).

Mr. Rubio has a more down-to-earth explanation of meeting power demand and supply. He said that the variability of renewable energy must be considered in planning an energy transition, that in other countries variable energy generation has a cap. That the Philippines still needs reliable, stable, and affordable energy and in comparing thermal vs RE, the full cost including ancillary services and batteries should be included.

Jerome Cainglet of the Energy Dev’t Corp. (EDC) was also supposed to be one of the speakers, but he did not show. EDC is focused on wind power and geothermal energy.

I still believe that the Energy department’s disallowance, since the previous administration, of new or “greenfield” coal projects is wrong. If our focus is on more growth and more electricity for our businesses and households, coal has provided that to many countries for many decades.

In the accompanying table I compiled data on four rich European “decarbonizing” economies that significantly reduced their coal use, and big population Asian countries with rising coal consumption, plus Turkey.

Decarbonizing Europeans with declining coal use have had anemic growth of only 1% to 1.6% from 2012-2022 while developing Asians with rising coal use have fast average growth of 4% to 6.5% yearly. Again, there are many factors for why a country has fast or slow growth, but the fossil fuel input is among the important factors.

The Philippines’ 6% to 7% annual GDP growth target for 2023 and beyond will require similar growth in power generation, meaning a 6-7 terawatt-hours (TWH) yearly incremental increase over some 100 TWH in 2022.

If we expand by only 4-6 TWH yearly, growth will be affected and compromised to roughly 5% or less. We do not want that. We have the momentum already, with 5.6% growth in Q1-Q3 this year, and this is projected to grow at 6.2% to 6.5% in 2024 (according to ADB and AMRO projections). We should not douse this momentum.
----------

See also:
BWorld 656, Stabilizing growth of the fastest growing major economy in the world, November 19, 2023
BWorld 657, Energizing growth via grid ‘demonopolization’ and ‘declimatism’ policies, November 26, 2023
BWorld 658, Economic forecast 2024, November 27, 2023.

Dr. Romy Quijano on vaccines, Part 3

Graphene and the Covid-19 Vaccines

Romeo F. Quijano, M.D. Professor (Ret.)
College of Medicine, University of the Philippines Manila
Oct. 13, 2023

One of the most controversial issues surrounding the Covid-19 vaccines is the alleged presence of graphene, mainly in the form of graphene oxide, in these vaccines. After the roll-out of the vaccines, a group in Spain, La Quinta Columna, headed by Dr. Ricardo Delgado, claimed that graphene oxide was found in some vials of the covid vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, Astra-Zeneca and Janssen). Their claim was based mainly on the scientific study done by Dr. Pablo Campra Madrid, Associate Professor in Chemistry at the University of Almeria, Spain (1). In this study, Dr. Campra concludes:

“A random sampling of COVID19 vaccine vials has been performed using a coupled micro- RAMAN technique to characterize graphene-like microscopic objects using spectroscopic fingerprints characteristic of the molecular structure. The micro-RAMAN technique allows to reinforce the level of confidence in the identification of the material by coupling imaging and spectral analysis as observational evidence to be considered together. Objects have been detected whose RAMAN signals by similarity with the standard UNEQUIVOCABLY correspond to GRAPHENE OXIDE.”

More studies finding graphene in covid vaccines

Shortly after Dr. Campra’s study, an analysis of vaccine vials (Pfizer and Moderna) was also carried out in Chile (2). According to this study (translated from Spanish): The images of the vaccine samples obtained by Confocal Laser Microscopy were analyzed directly, finding microstructures that is characteristic of the presence of organic matter. Nanosheets, usually called graphene microsheets or graphene nanosheets were found. When magnified, amorphous structures forming meshes were observed, a particular feature that graphene has. STEM (Short Time-series Expression Miner software) visualization shows amorphous agglomerates of nanostructures. An elemental distribution mapping performed on SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy)-Cu mounted samples found that the amorphous structures correspond to oxygen and carbon clusters characteristic of graphene.

Similarly in Argentina, Dr. Martín Monteverde and his colleagues carried out analyses of vials from Cansino, Pfizer, Sinopharm, AstraZeneca, and Sputnik using optical microscopy up to 400X magnification and found the same kinds of nano and micro-electronic graphene structures as found earlier by other researchers in Spain and Chile (3,4). They also found rectangular, bubble-like, and long worm shapes as possible field-effect transistors (FETs), microbubbles, and single-walled carbon nanotubes (SCWNT), as well as self-assembling properties in these nanoelectronics and microelectronics comprising tiny routers, circuits, and dots, including the seeming formation of fractalled plasmonic antennas.

In New Zealand, a team of scientists conducted microscopic observations into the vials of Comirnaty vaccine liquid and the results showed undisclosed ingredients within the vaccine similar to those found by Campra and Monteverde. Dr. Matt Shelton, head of New Zealand Doctors Speaking Out with Science, did his own experiments and confirmed that the findings were indeed true and replicable. There was close similarity between the two photographs of chip-like nanoparticles found in New Zeland and the one discovered in a vial in Germany. (5)

Dr. Robert Young from the USA analyzed 4 covid vaccines (Pfizer-BioNtech, Moderna,Astrazeneca and Janssen) to verify their morphologies and contents using different instrumentation and protocols of preparation according to new nanoparticulate technological approaches.(6) All the controls were put in place and reference measurements adopted in order to obtain validated results. Images of the aqueous

fractions of the vaccines were subsequently obtained to visually assess the possible presence of carbon particulates or graphene. The observations under optical microscopy revealed an abundance of transparent 2D laminar objects that show great similarity with images from the literature (7) and with images obtained from rGO or Graphene Hydroxide standard (SIGMA). Images of big transparent sheets of variable size and shapes were obtained, showing corrugated and flat, irregular objects. Smaller sheets of polygonal shapes, also similar to flakes described in literature were revealed using Phase Contrast and Dark-Field microscopy. All these laminar objects were widespread in the aqueous fraction of the blood or vaccine samples and no component described by the registered patent(s) can be associated with these sheets.

Scientists in the United Kingdom recently conducted a forensic examination into the contents of covid vaccines. The objective of the study (“Qualitative Evaluation of Inclusions in Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer Covid-19 vaccines”) was to examine the vaccine vials and document any undeclared ingredients in the composition of the vaccines, with special focus on graphene and related products as well as any biological forms. The study was to verify the findings of graphene related compounds as reported by Campra and report any other biological inclusions that may be interpreted as toxic to human body. The vials went through evaluation of contents at four different laboratory sites.

Prepped slides of the samples were examined under a reflection and transmission light microscope for organic content and petrological microscope for mineral contents. Subsamples from original vials were obtained for Raman spectroscopy. The investigators discovered that the vaccines were loaded with graphene oxide. None of the covid injection manufacturers list graphene or carbon-related nanostructures in the form of carbon or graphene composites in their ingredients lists. They also fail to mention the presence of graphene in association with polyethylene glycol, graphene oxide, iron oxide compounds and calcite.

And yet all of these ingredients and more were identified in the vials: 1. Graphene nano ribbons coated with polyethylene glycol

2. Graphene composite Form 1

3. Graphene composite Form 2

4. Microcrystalline calcite with carbonaceous inclusions 5. Graphene nano form with and without fluorescence 6. Graphene nano objects

7. Graphene nano scrolls

In conclusion, the investigators stated that the four samples of vaccines (Moderna 1, Modern 2, AstraZeneca, Pfizer) all contain significant amounts of carbon composites, graphene compounds and iron oxide. These ingredients were undeclared by the manufacturers and are absent from the list of ingredients for the vaccines. (8)

Contamination or covert inclusion?

The aforementioned studies provide compelling evidence that leaves little doubt on the presence of graphene nanomaterials (GFNs) in covid-19 vaccines.

The presence of graphene oxide in the vaccine cannot be explained by contamination (a quality control problem identified by a number of studies in the process of manufacturing the vaccines) because graphene oxide, unlike contaminants, is not involved in the normal process of manufacturing the vaccine. DNA fragments, SV40 promoter gene, heavy metal residues, endotoxin and other possible contaminants are usual elements from adjuvants, cell culturing, purification and other steps in the manufacturing process which need to be filtered away from the final vaccine product that contains the vaccine ingredients (mRNA, LNPs, preservatives, etc) as declared by the manufacturer.

The presence of graphene oxide in the vaccine can only be explained by intentional addition into the vaccine, which was however publicly undisclosed. Corroborating evidence that graphene oxide was intentionally put into the vaccine is the fact that the patent description on graphene oxide, owned by Fosun pharmaceuticals which has a commercial partnership with Pfizer related to Covid vaccine, clearly indicates that the graphene oxide/GFN was specifically for use in the production of coronavirus vaccine. (17)

BWorld 658, Economic forecast 2024

Economic forecast 2024
November 21, 2023 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. 
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2023/11/21/558623/economic-forecast-2024/

Only six weeks to go and the year 2024 will be with us. Many people, especially entrepreneurs, are curious about two issues: 1.) What is the economic outlook, the business environment, for the new year? And, b.), what sectors should they invest in more, and where to pull back?

FORECAST 2024

I checked the latest forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), its World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2023, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2023 of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Trading Economics as of November 2023.

For Table 1, I put countries together into four groups: Group A is the ASEAN-6, Group B contains the large Asian economies, Group C has the largest economies of North and South America, and Group D is made up of the largest economies in Europe. The economic performances of most countries, especially in Europe and the ASEAN-6, have been worse this year than last year.

For 2024, the IMF foresees mild growth recovery in the ASEAN-6, South Korea, France, and Germany. And it sees modest inflation rates of only 1.7% to 4.6%.

The ADB has similar forecast numbers as the IMF, except in the US where it sees only 0.8% growth in 2024 vs the IMF’s 1.5%. And Trading Economics has a low growth forecast for the ASEAN-6, except for the Philippines where it sees high growth of 6.4% next year (see Table 1).

Of the three sources, I believe that Trading Economics has a more realistic forecast than the IMF and ADB — it sees growth of 6.4% for the Philippines. We should keep the growth target of 6.5% to 8%.

Singapore is currently crawling with growth of just 0.5% this year. Recently it pivoted to degrowth economics via high carbon tax — it will raise the current $5/ton to $25/ton in 2024-2025, and up to $45/ton in 2026-2027, and $50-80/ton by 2030. This is a degrowth and deindustrialization policy.

I also checked two other sources, the Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing (BESF) 2024 submitted by the economic team to Congress in August 2023, and the forecast by the Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI) in November 2023.

The BESF targets GDP growth of 6.5% to 8% in 2024, BPI sees growth at 6.2%. The BESF targets inflation to be 2% to 4%, while BPI sees it at 3.6%. The BESF targets a US dollar/Philippine peso exchange rate of P53 to P57 per dollar while BPI sees a P53.80 rate.

Tomorrow, Nov. 22, I will go to three big fora. One is the BusinessWorld Economic Forum (BWEF) 2023 with the theme, “Forecast 2024” at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in BGC, Taguig City. There is also the Stratbase’s “Pilipinas Conference 2023” at The Peninsula Hotel in Makati. Then the quarterly membership meeting of the Out-of-Home Advertising Association of the Philippines (OHAAP) in Valle Verde Country Club in Pasig City, where I will give a talk: “Economic Forecast 2024.”

The BWEF will have the regional or country heads of the three multilaterals — the ADB, the IMF, and the World Bank — as its keynote speakers in the morning. Stratbase will have the government’s economic team, the Secretaries of Finance, Budget, Economics/NEDA plus the Secretaries of Trade and Transportation as its morning speakers.

PEB IN SAN FRANCISCO

Last week, on Nov. 15, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., and the government’s economic and infrastructure teams held another Philippine Economic Briefing (PEB) in the US, this time at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in San Francisco, California. The President told business leaders, investors, and bankers there that “A wealth of opportunity awaits you in the Philippines and we are ready to explore new horizons with your investments in the coming years.”

Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno who leads the economic team said: “We have opened up the economy. We didn’t wait for the virus to subside, we opened up many sectors of the economy and the economy really is doing very well. It is one of the fastest-growing countries in the fastest-growing region in the world. So this is our moment.” Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman discussed the priority expenditures in line with the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028, and key budget reforms like the government’s rightsizing program.

The economic team has targeted a reduction in the country’s budget deficit to only 3% of GDP by 2028 and public debt of 51% or lower by 2028, while sustaining high infrastructure spending of 5% to 6% of GDP yearly.

These are hard to achieve targets considering the economic damage done by the lockdown dictatorship where public debt jumped from 37% of GDP in 2019 to 57% to 58% in 2020-2021. But we must pursue these targets with the goals of reducing the deficit, the public debt, and inflation rate while sustaining fast growth.

WHERE TO INVEST

Table 2 is a breakdown of the industrial origins of the Philippines’ GDP in 2021-2023. The biggest sub-sectors are the wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (WRTRMVM), and manufacturing. They both constitute 18-19% of GDP each.

The good business prospects in terms of double-digit growth for at least two years are: Accommodation and food service activities, meaning the hotels, resorts, restaurants, and bars. Next are transportation (air, land, sea) and storage, although these two have a small percentage share of total GDP. Third would be construction. The Electricity, steam, water and waste management (ESWWM) sector has a modest growth of 5-6%.

Also a good business prospect — but which comes with high political risk — is mining, both metallic and non-metallic. Gold, copper, nickel, etc. will never fade in importance but the problem is politics, there are too many political actors opposing corporate and open-pit mining. We should prioritize more prosperity via responsible resource extraction, than more poverty with “undisturbed” lands.
--------------

See also:
BWorld 655, Stabilizing growth: Declining inflation and unemployment rates, November 18, 2023
BWorld 656, Stabilizing growth of the fastest growing major economy in the world, November 19, 2023
BWorld 657, Energizing growth via grid ‘demonopolization’ and ‘declimatism’ policies, November 26, 2023.

New, non-woke politics by AfD in Germany

If I were a German citizen, I would have supported and voted for Alternative for Germany (AfD) party especially in the last few years. Why, well it is non-woke, non-socialist, non-climate alarmist, non-welfarist, non-tax hungry and so on. It is anti-mass migration too. Migration is good, legal migration. But illegal migration is not. There are rules, procedures and vetting process before one can migrate to another country to live and work or study, such procedures should be implemented.

Enjoy these reports.
------------

With Germany facing €60 billion budget crisis after top court ruling, the AfD party offers 5 budget cut proposals
Germany is facing a budget crisis after a top court ruling, with the AfD party, sensing weakness from the ruling left-liberal government, now proposing massive budget cuts
JOHN CODY November 27, 2023
https://rmx.news/economy/with-germany-facing-e60-billion-budget-crisis-after-top-court-ruling-the-afd-party-offers-5-budget-cut-proposals/

1. Deport migrants

The AfD notes that the federal government is spending €27.8 billion on accommodation and care for migrants this year alone, and the party notes that most of them “are no longer allowed to be in Germany.” By deporting migrants en masse, the government could save billions. Other reports have put total spending on migrants in 2023 to be as high as €36 billion.

2. Stop the energy transition

The AfD writes that the “€60 billion declared inadmissible by the Federal Constitutional Court were unlawfully added to the climate budget. Therefore: Stop climate madness immediately, stop the energy transition, and increase nuclear power.”

The AfD notes that the energy transition is costing €30 billion per year. If Germany were to drop sanctions on Russian energy, it would also create an immediate boon for the country’s industrial sector through cheap energy.

3. End weapon deliveries to Ukraine

The federal government has spent €15 billion on Ukraine, including in the form of aid and weapons, and those costs are expected to further balloon. The AfD calls for an immediate halt of arms deliveries and a focus on rebuilding Germany’s armed forces.

4. End frivolous foreign aid handouts

The AfD is also calling for an end to irresponsible spending on foreign countries, noting that the Nigerian government recently boasted about SUVs and yachts for the ruling government after Germany sent it €40 million. In addition, the €4 billion Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised through the “EU-Africa Initiative” may have to be reconsidered in light of the recent German Constitutional Court ruling.

5. Stop paying for beauty services

The last point seems to be more of a political jab at Germany’s ruling class, with the AfD noting that the government is spending a total of €1.5 million for manicures, hairstyles, makeup, and photographers for officials. Although it would ultimately be a drop in the bucket of the overall German budget, cutting these expenditures would be a symbolic victory against wasteful government spending.

Major Setback For German Green Transformation As Top Court Rules Funding Unconstitutional!
By P Gosselin on 21. November 2023
Appropriation of 60 billion euros ruled unconstitutional by Germany High Court
https://notrickszone.com/2023/11/21/major-setback-for-german-green-transformation-as-top-court-rules-funding-unconstitutional/

Banning the AfD would be dangerous for democracy, says hard-left firebrand Wagenknecht
The hard-left German politician emerged as an unlikely defender of the Alternative for Germany amid calls for the party to be banned, and reserved some praise for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán
THOMAS BROOKE November 14, 2023
https://rmx.news/germany/banning-the-afd-would-be-dangerous-for-democracy-says-hard-left-firebrand-wagenknecht/

Germany: AfD reaches new record high, gains unprecedented 8-point lead over ruling SPD
AfD soars at the same time that Germans rate mass immigration as their most pressing issue
JOHN CODY October 16, 2023
https://rmx.news/germany/germany-afd-reaches-new-record-high-gains-unprecedented-8-point-lead-over-ruling-spd/

Voters’ top concern is immigration, while climate change becomes a non-issue

Voters also say their top concern is mass immigration, with 44 percent of voters naming this as the most important political problem that politicians should address. This issue towers over the other problems facing the country, with armed conflicts/peace/foreign policy only coming in at 18 percent, while the economy comes in at 11 percent and inflation and taxes at 10 percent.

Regarding the environment and climate change, only 1 percent of Germans list this as the most pressing issue.

Bitter Defeat For Germany’s Ruling Socialist/Green Government In State Elections
By P Gosselin on 8. October 2023
German voters send loud and clear message to the socialist/green government in Berlin
https://notrickszone.com/2023/10/08/bitter-defeat-for-germanys-ruling-socialist-green-government-in-state-elections/

In summary, voters are deeply dissatisfied with the policies of the ruling socialist-green government in Berlin and clearly reject their green schemes and wide open borders.

Renewable-Energy-Critical AfD Party Powers Into Saxony Parliament…”Shocking” Pollsters, Establishment (Again)
By P Gosselin on 1. September 2014
https://notrickszone.com/2014/09/01/renewable-energy-critical-afd-party-powers-into-saxony-parliament-shocking-pollsters-establishment-again/