Showing posts with label Cielito Habito. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cielito Habito. Show all posts

Thursday, December 28, 2017

BWorld 170, The Habito carbon tax distortion

* This is my column in BusinessWorld on December 7, 2017.


Very often, the purpose of government is to make cheap things become more expensive. It does this via high and multiple taxes, regulatory fees, mandatory contributions, and multiple permits and bureaucracies that raise the cost of compliance. Many governments display hypocrisy when they say that they want to control inflation yet create those multiple taxes and bureaucracies that create inflationary pressure.

In the energy sector, the most recent proposed tax hikes are in the excise tax of oil products of up to P6/liter, and a big jump in excise tax of coal also known as “carbon tax” from the current P10/ton to P300/ton. The original bill by Sen. Sonny Angara proposed a hike from P10 to P20/ton but last week, an amendment by Sen. Joel Villanueva and followed up by Sen. Loren Legarda changed this to P300/ton.

Romeo Bernardo in his BusinessWorld column last Monday “The Gravy TRAIN is leaving and common sense isn’t in it” estimated that “The P300 per metric ton tax on coal will add P0.14 per kWh to our cost of generating electricity. This is on top of… feed-in-tariffs (FiT), a fancy term for what are just subsidies from the taxpayer. Combined, they will add P0.43 per KWh to our electricity bills or, at current consumption levels, a total of P40 billion for 2018.”

That is huge, a big government-instigated expensive electricity measure via legislation. In 2016, coal power constituted only 34% of total installed capacity in the country but contributed 48% of total electricity production. If the distortion created by priority and mandatory dispatch to the grid of solar-wind even if they are expensive (feed-in-tariff or FiT of up to P10+/kWh for solar and P9+/kWh for wind, more than 2x the price of coal and natgas) and intermittent, the share of coal electricity production can easily reach 50%.

The earlier proposal by former NEDA secretary Ciel Habito to impose a carbon tax of P600/ton has something to do with this. It is a lousy proposal yet it emboldened the legislators to make cheap and stable energy from coal become more expensive.

When Dr. Habito wrote his article at the Inquirer last September 2017, coal prices were around $60/ton, not $80 as he claimed. So $60 x P51/$ = P3,060/ton. His distorted proposal of a tax of P600/ton would be equivalent to 19.6% tax, not 15%. So the legislators may perhaps claim that at least they did not follow the distorted logic of P600/ton Habito proposal and they proposed only P300/ton.

I was wondering about Dr. Habito’s inconsistencies. One, he frequently advocates expensive electricity via high coal and carbon tax with about four articles at the Inquirer since June 2017. Two, no advocacy for high carbon tax of natural gas/LNG which are also fossil fuels. And three, silence in expensive electricity via guaranteed high price for 20 years also known as FiT for wind-solar. To say that the impact of the coal tax on electricity prices will be small is a cavalier attitude on price increases when he’s not the only one paying for it.

Romeo Bernardo has a point when he further wrote in his article, “why single out coal for a carbon tax? Why not a carbon tax on every fuel based on its impact on the ozone layer (which incidentally should also include LNG)?”

Our electricity prices are already heavily distorted with about 10 different items and charges in our monthly electricity bill. Generation charge, transmission charge, distribution charge, supply charge, system loss charge, universal charge, metering charge, lifeline rate subsidy, taxes, FiT. For consumers such as households with about 600+ kWh consumption, industrial users, there are 2 other charges (total 12), like environmental tax.

The FiT keeps rising from 4 centavos/kWh in 2015 and now 18 centavos with a pending hike to 29 centavos/kWh late this year. Very likely it will no longer be granted so Transco will likely ask for 32 centavos/kWh or higher early next year. Add 32 centavos subsidy for expensive and intermittent renewables + 14 centavos coal tax and soon we shall have 56 centavos/kWh of unnecessary and distortionary extra cost in expensive electricity.

The continued favoritism of renewables while penalization and demonization of coal and fossil fuels is triggered by continued climate alarmism. Whether we have less rain, no rain or lots of rain; whether we have no flood or lots of flood; whether there are few storms or lots of storms, whatever weather and climate, the alarmism movement suggests that we should pay more expensive electricity, we should send more money to the UN, WB, ADB, CCC, WWF, etc. We should get more climate loans, more renewables loans, and cronyism. It is a lousy movement.

Coal power and fossil fuels are responsible for higher productivity of the poor and cheaper electricity for households and industries. We have a rising life expectancy, rising per capita GDP despite rising population because of the rise in overall human productivity, thanks to coal and fossil fuels.

The House of Representatives should counter the high coal tax proposal of the Habito-inspired Senate bill. The various tax-tax-tax under TRAIN should not add more distortions and inflationary pressure in our daily electricity consumption.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is President of Minimal Government Thinkers, a member-institute of Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia.
----------------

Monday, October 16, 2017

BWorld 158, Why a carbon tax is wrong

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last week.


Coal power produced nearly 48% of Philippines’ actual electricity generation in 2016 despite having only 34.6% share in the country’s installed power capacity of 21,400 MW or 21.4 GW, Department of Energy (DoE) figures show.

Renewables (hydro, geothermal, wind, solar, biomass) produced 24.2% of total power generation in 2016 despite having 32.5% of installed power capacity. In particular, wind + solar combined contributed a small 2.3% of total power generation.

At a forum organized by the Energy Policy Development Program (EPDP) at the UP School of Economics last Oct. 5, the speaker Dr. Francisco Viray, former DoE secretary and now president and CEO of PhinMa Energy Corp., showed in his presentation a screen shot of Dr. Ciel Habito’s article, “Let’s get the carbon tax right.” Ciel was arguing among others, that the carbon tax for coal power should be raised from the current P10/ton to P600/ton and not P20/ton as contained in Senate bill No. 1592 of Sen. Angara.

I commented during the open forum that Ciel’s article in reality has a wrong title, it should have been “A carbon tax is wrong.” And here are the reasons why.

One, as mentioned above, coal power was responsible for nearly 48% of total electricity generation nationwide in 2016 and it is wrong to restrict its supply and/or make its price become more expensive. Kill coal or even drastic cut in coal power would mean massive, large-scale, and nationwide blackouts for several hours a day, something that consumers wouldn’t want to endure. After all, even a one minute brownout can already cause widespread disappointment.

Two, the Philippines’ overall coal consumption – in absolute amount and in per capita level – is small compared to the consumption of its neighbors in Asia (see table).


The Philippines has only 100 kilos or 0.1 ton per head per year of coal, the smallest in the region. There is no basis to suggest restricting further coal use given the fast demand for electricity nationwide.

Three, it is wrong to advocate more expensive electricity via high carbon tax given that subsidies to renewables via feed-in-tariff (FiT), among others, are already adding upward price pressure. A higher carbon tax may be more acceptable to the consumers if the FiT scheme is discontinued and ultimately abolished. If this is not done, better to keep coal excise tax as low as possible.

The proposed P600/ton excise tax on coal power would translate to P0.24/kWh hike in power generation charge. Using Ciel’s numbers, one ton of coal can generate 2,519 kWh electricity on average. So P600/2,519 kWh = P0.24/kWh. That is equivalent to FiT-Allowance that each electricity consumer from Luzon to Mindanao must pay monthly for many years to come.

Four, it is wrong to demonize and over-regulate carbon dioxide (CO2) as a pollutant because it is not. CO2 is invisible, colorless, and odorless unlike those dark smoke coming from vehicles and chimneys of old manufacturing plants.

CO2 is the gas that humans and animals exhale, the gas that flowers, trees, rice and other crops use to produce their own food via photosynthesis. More CO2 means more plant growth, faster greening of the planet. CO2 therefore is a useful gas, not a pollutant gas that the UN, Al Gore, and other groups and individuals would portray it.

While the hike in coal excise tax from P10 to P20/ton as contained in the Senate version is somehow acceptable, there is danger that the P600/ton proposal will spring out of nowhere during the bicameral meeting of the House and Senate leaders. This should not be allowed to happen.

Continued demonization of coal and rising favoritism of variable renewables like wind-solar would mean more expensive electricity, more unstable grid, and darker streets at night. Dark streets would mean more road accidents, more robbery, more abduction and rapes, more murders as criminals benefit from anonymity provided by darkness.

Energy irrationality can kill more people today, not 40 or 100 years from now. The irrationality and insensitivity of rising government taxes should be restricted and limited.
--------------

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Tax Cut 29, Culture of exemptions and culture of envy

An article by Dr. Ciel Habito last week was shared in fb by several friends yesterday. Ciel wrote,

Why is it that we have a lower tax effort (tax revenues in proportion to gross domestic product) than most of our neighbors, and yet have higher tax rates than they do? Consider the following: In 2014, Philippine government revenues as a percent of GDP was 15.1 percent. The corresponding percentage was 19.9 for Malaysia, 18.5 for Singapore, 19.7 for Thailand, 16.5 for Cambodia, and 21.5 for Vietnam. And yet, among our neighbors, we have the highest rates of corporate income tax and value-added tax, and one of the highest for personal income tax.

Our corporate income tax rate of 30 percent well exceeds the Asia-wide average of 22.5 percent, with Indonesia and Malaysia having 25 percent, Vietnam 22 percent, Thailand and Cambodia 20 percent, and Singapore and Taiwan 17 percent. We also have the highest value-added tax or general sales tax, with our 12 percent VAT being higher than the 10 percent for Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia; 7 percent for Singapore and Thailand; and 5 percent for Taiwan. Our individual income tax has a top rate of 32 percent, against the Asia-wide average of only 28.4 percent. While ours is lower than Taiwan’s 40 percent and Thailand and Vietnam’s 35 percent, it is higher than Indonesia’s 30 percent, Malaysia’s 26 percent, and Singapore’s 20 percent.

I commented that it is both a culture of exemptions and a culture of envy. Why would the government attempts to confiscate 1/3 of a company's income in the first place? Because govt thinks that all companies are making money and rich and wealthy and so they must pay as high as possible to the state.

Two rules of the politics of envy: (1) confiscate as much as possible from the private sector; (2) many of the latter will be hurt so they will ask for favor/exemptions, that's the time for rent-seeking, extortion, favoritism and picking winners. The central planners, legislators and bureaucrats decide who should be favored and who should not.

That is why most central planners would hate low taxes, it removes their arbitrary power who should be given exemption and who should not.

The culture of envy is reflected on the tax rates. 30% income tax is envy, why would govt have the "entitlement" to get such amount from the efforts of working people? The culture of exemptions is reflected on low collection rates.

I think a flat income tax rate of 10%, zero exemption, will be a good compromise. Look again the demand curve, the lower the price, the higher the quantity that consumers will buy. Same with income tax, the lower the income tax rate, the higher the number of entrepreneurs who will come to do business. Overall, low tax rate (t) x high number of taxpayers (Q) = t xQ = higher tax revenues (TR)

The Laffer curve is telling high tax rate-countries like the PH that their 30%, 25% or even 20% income tax rate is not optimal, high on the horizontal axis (tax rate) but low on the vertical (tax revenues). HK collects only 17%, SG about 16% and they have more businessmen, more taxpayers.

I wish to see a zero income tax. Like Monaco, Brunei, even Saudi, etc. Their govts earn from many other revenues like selling land (all lands are owned by the state until they are privatized; HK model somehow), selling natural gas or petroleum (Brunei, Saudi, etc models), selling mineral products, etc. Or collect other taxes like VAT/GST, property tax, etc.

One beauty of small countries, small governments. they are forced to become efficient, outward looking and more business friendly, less bureaucratic, less tax-hungry.
------------