Government and Taxes: Isaac Newton

Showing posts with label Isaac Newton. Show all posts

Sunday, August 21, 2016

Transport Econ 17, On banning provincial buses in Edsa

Remember Isaac Newton's 3rd law of motion: For every action, there is an equal, opposite reaction. Apply in society: For every government intervention and prohibition, there is an equal opposite distortion.

This news was reported last August 13, 2016. If government implements this, there will be MORE traffic congestion, not less, on Edsa and rest of M. Manila. Why?

Because many of those probinsyanos/syanas who ride the provincial buses are car owners. They leave their cars in Pampanga, Tarlac, Bulacan, Pangasinan, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, etc. when they go to Manila because it is more convenient, more time-saving to ride the buses. Now remove the provincial buses in Edsa, transpo going to Manila will be more inconvenient, take multiple rides, more time consuming, more costly. Solution: drive their cars or motorcycles from the province.

About three years ago, MMDA's former Chairman Francis Tolentino banned buses from Cavite, other parts of Batangas to enter Lawton and Buendia, they unloaded passengers only in Uniwide warehouse at the coastal road. Huge headache for many passengers on the first few days, they have to take a M.Manila bus -- less convenient, less modern, aircon not so cold, etc -- or jeepney, non-aircon.

I noticed that the week after that, traffic worsened in Edsa, elsewhere. Precisely because many of those probinsyanos are car owners. With the inconvenience and higher cost of multiple rides, many of them drove their cars to Manila.

And after banning provincial buses in Edsa and traffic congestion remains bad if not worsened, what's next? Banning private cars 2x or 3x a week. And many middle class and rich families will buy more cars that they can use on days where their other car/s are banned.

Many probinsyanos carry heavy loads when they go to Manila. Whenever I visit the farm in Pangasinan, the lightest load I carry back home is 15 kilos. Rice, buko, bananas, jackfruit, etc. Taking a taxi from Cubao alone to Makati would cost me nearly P300, which is equivalent to my aircon bus fare from Pangasinan to Cubao.

So I take the city bus, Cubao to Makati, cheap, only P26, but travel time is long. Between 1 to 2 hours, depending on time of arrival in Cubao. So if government will make the provincial buses to stop only at Novaliches or even Valenzuela, then my taxi fare will be much higher and if I take the Manila bus, my city travel will become 2 - 3 1/2 hours.

Better drive my car and carry up to 50 kilos, 100 kilos or more of provincial goods. But then I will be adding to more traffic in Manila. And then many people will say we should ban more cars. sus ginoo.

A friend Reuel H wrote, "I can attest to that. One of our bosses lives in Apalit, Pampanga and takes the bus to work. He would leave his car at SM San Fernando and board the Genesis Liner coming from Bataan to conveniently drop him off at EDSA-Shaw Crossing. With this ban, he may be forced to bring his car all the way to Ortigas Center, thus contributing to the already-horrible gridlock in this business district."

Government should be banned from their frequent ban-prohibit mentality and policy. Very unimaginative and dictatorial.

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Thursday, November 12, 2015

BWorld 24, Traffic and Newton's 3 laws of motion

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last November 11, 2015.

Expansion of existing urban centers and urbanization of rural areas is the norm and natural path of many cities and areas in the planet. Congestion is the natural result as people try to squeeze themselves in a limited space where various amenities and work and business opportunities are available; things that they cannot easily find in rural areas.

In East Asia, cities from China and Japan are the biggest in population size. In Southeast Asia in particular, Metro Manila is the biggest. (See table)

Traffic congestion is among the most prominent problems of many big cities, like those with population of 5 million or more people.

In Metro Manila and other big Philippine cities like Cebu, Iloilo and Davao, the growth in number of vehicles is much faster than the growth of new roads and highways being constructed.

This subject was discussed in a round table discussion organized by the Albert del Rosario Institute (ADRi) on “Greater Manila Transport Infrastructure Solutions: Thinking Beyond EDSA” last Oct. 28, at the Tower Club in Makati City.

After the opening message by ADRi President Victor Dindo Manhit, Mr. Eduardo Yap of the Management Association of the Philippines gave a good presentation that compared the Metro Rail Transit (MRT)/Light Rail Transit (LRT) system in Metro Manila to the train systems in Bangkok, Jakarta, and Taipei.

Ours are small and short compared to those three and many other East Asian cities. The population figure that he gave refers to “Mega Manila,” which includes nearby provinces like Bulacan, Pampanga, Rizal and Cavite. (See illustration)

British physicist and mathematician, Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727) was known for his contributions in classical mechanics and physics. His famous theory is the so-called “Newton’s Laws of Motion.” Upon closer examination, it seems that the laws of motion in physics can also apply in society and economics.

Consider the First law: “A body at rest (or in motion) will remain at rest (or in motion) unless an external force is applied on it.”

Application: Bureaucracy in command and control state will remain in that state unless huge public pressure is applied on it.

There is a culture in the bureaucracy where the officials declare, “No one moves, no one builds anything, unless they get our signatures and permits first.” A state of inertia and inaction should be sustained unless players and stakeholders first get the signatures of officials and regulators.

And that explains how unsolicited proposals to build various MRT lines, skyways, and new tollways via build-operate-transfer (no cost to the government) two to three decades ago never got off the ground.

Second law: “The acceleration of a body is directly proportional to and in the same direction as the force acted on it, and inversely proportional to its mass.”

Application: The acceleration of regulatory prohibition is directly proportional to central planning philosophy and inversely proportional to its intellectual mass.

The Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) policy is to keep blaming private players -- the car owners, bus and van operators and drivers, even passengers. Thus, policies like cars number-coding prohibitions and similar rules covering some provincial buses and vans restrict the capacity and mobility of high occupancy vehicles unless they secure a legal franchise which, by itself, is very costly and time-consuming to get. People have to endure three or four rides one way (tricycle then jeep/bus, then MRT/LRT, then jeep or tricycle to final destination), and so many are forced to drive their cars, which exacerbate the traffic congestion.

Third law: “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.”

Application: For every government intervention, there is an equal opposite distortion.

When government prohibits people to drive their own cars on certain day of the week, many people buy a second or third car, especially if their village is far from the main road. And this exacerbates traffic congestion. When government prohibits certain provincial buses to enter key areas in Metro Manila, many of these car-owning probinsyanos take their cars or motorcycles to Metro Manila, and this again worsens traffic congestion.

One alternative that the MMDA and Department of Transporation and Communications/Land Transportation and Franchising Regulatory Board should consider is that instead of segregating between Metro Manila and provincial buses, they should allow those bus companies to choose their routes. Say from Cavite to Fairview or Pasig-Marikina, and these buses can pick up and unload passengers along EDSA or C5. Make the bus-train commute more convenient and cost-effective, and many people will leave their cars at home. In addition, many jeepneys and tricycles will die a natural death, without creating a new law or Administrative Order or local government unit ordinance. And we shall have less traffic.

Traffic congestion is an engineering problem with engineering solutions; it is a result of market failures but can be solved by market solutions. Like those unsolicited proposals to build more urban rails since 20 or 30 years ago. Like those air-con vans that bring office personnel from their houses/villages straight to Makati, Ortigas, Bonifacio Global City, Eastwood, Manila, airport, and so on, with just “one ride.”

Government should learn to step back and allow market players to initiate market solutions to the traffic congestion. Government should focus on securing road right-of-way for important infrastructure projects and enforcing property rights. Enforce the rule of law, like the law against bus hold-uppers, terrorists, murderers, and kidnappers. Transporting people and goods to various destinations is not a crime that requires lots of permits, taxes, and expensive franchises.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc., and a Fellow of the South East Asia Network for Development (SEANET).

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See also:

BWorld 5, Transportation Bureaucracy and Uber, June 16, 2015

BWorld 8, Manila's Traffic and Transport Woes, June 27, 2015

BWorld 21, More internet use means lesser corruption?, October 31, 2015
BWorld 22, WESM, PEMC and search for competitive electricity prices, November 05, 2015
BWorld 23, ASEAN trade bureaucracies and Doing Business 2016 Report, November 07, 2015

Transport Econ 15, On having 2 cars or more, July 20, 2015

Transport Econ 16, Stratbase ADR Institute forum on Manila Transport Infra Solutions, October 30, 2015

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Fat-Free Econ 45: Newton's Laws of Motion and Traffic Congestion

* This is my article yesterday in interaksyon.com.
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British physicist and mathematician, Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727) was known for his contributions to classical mechanics and physics. His famous theory, which I remember from high school, is the so-called “Newton’s Laws of Motion.”

Having done research on various social and economic issues for many years, it dawned upon me that Newton’s three laws can be applied to society as well, especially on how the government attempts to solve the daily traffic congestion in Metro Manila and other big cities in the country.

Below are Newton's Laws of Motion and my re-interpretation when they are applied to Philippine society.

The first law -- A body at rest (or in motion) will remain at rest (or in motion) unless an external force is applied on it -- as applied to society: Bureaucracy in command-and-control will remain in that state unless the distortion they created is applied on them.

A new government policy banning provincial buses from entering Manila and Makati is a clear example that the bureaucracy is terribly detached from the needs of many provincial passengers. The government simply left tens of thousands of bus passengers stranded along Roxas and Macapagal boulevards with no alternative to get to their destination quicker. For those able to catch in-city public utility vehicles (PUVs) had to spend extra, making public transport costlier, more time consuming and more inconvenient. This was despite government efforts to leave their cars and take public transportation so traffic and air pollution are reduced.

Many government officials live in Metro Manila, not in the provinces. For those who live outside, even if they take the bus, there are red plate cars waiting for them at the bus stations. The bureaucracy is holed up in command-and-control thinking because they have exempted themselves from the distortions and inconvenience of the policy they imposed on the rest of society.

The second law -- The acceleration of a body is directly proportional to and in the same direction as the force acted on it, and inversely proportional to its mass -- as applied to society: The acceleration of bureaucratic policy is directly proportional to the central planning philosophy applied on it and inversely proportional to its intellectual mass.

The government tendency to blame private players car owners, bus and van operators and drivers, and even passengers, thus policies restrict them. Note here the recent proposal to expand the car use prohibition (a.k.a, number coding) from one day a week to two days. The command-and-control philosophy gives them the illusion of being right despite the paucity of rational and scientific studies to support whatever new restrictions they wish to implement. Government agencies do not see themselves and their policies among the major causes of traffic congestion.

The third law -- For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction -- as applied to society: For every government intervention, there is an equal and opposite distortion.

When government prohibits provincial buses to enter key areas in Metro Manila to "reduce traffic,, passengers are first inconvenienced, as shown by the long lines of inconvenienced passengers from Cavite and Batangas on the first day of the ban. But soon, many of these passengers will buy second-hand cars or new motorcycles and drive to Metro Manila, and this will worsen traffic congestion.

Newton also developed another theory, the "Law of Universal Gravitation," which states thus: Every point mass in the universe attracts every other point mass with a force directly proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them.

Applied to society: Every untested idea in government attracts another lousy proposal with a force directly proportional to the product of their bureaucratic sizes, and inversely proportional to the square of any rationality remaining in them.

This bureaucratic gravitational force is huge because the numerator is big while the denominator is small. As government makes commuting more time consuming, costlier and more inconvenient (the 2-3 rides become 3-4), more people will either cramp in Metro Manila or buy more cars or motorcycles to get to their destination quicker, or slower (due to more traffic) but more conveniently and safer.

An alternative the government should consider is that instead of segregating between Metro Manila and provincial buses, bus companies should be allowed to choose their routes; for example, from Cavite to Fairview or Monumento to Bulacan or C5 to Pasig-Marikina.

These buses can pick up and unload passengers along Edsa or C5. Make the bus-train commute more convenient and cost-effective, and many people will leave their cars at home.

In addition, many jeepneys and tricycles will die a natural death, without creating a new law, administrative order or local ordinance. And we shall have less traffic.

Let us encourage less, not more, government restrictions and prohibitions. Government should focus on going after the real criminals, like bus hold uppers, terrorist bombers, murderers and kidnappers, rapists and molesters. Transporting provincial passengers to their offices or schools in Metro Manila is not a crime.

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