La Nina and flooding in the PH, other countries

After a big El Nino the last two years, La Nina is back this year and it seems to be a bad one, lasting probably for the next two years. In the Philippines' main island of Luzon for instance, regular rainy or wet season is from June to October. This year, it is end-December already and it's been cloudy on most days with occasional scattered rains.

There have been several heavy flooding in the country too until this month that killed dozens of people due to landslides and drowning.

Ok, just what is El Nino - La Nina, how are they measured?

The quick answer is if the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly or deviation in the Nino region 3.4 -- the center-most and widest part of the 4 Nino regions 1, 2, 3 and 4 in the Pacific Ocean -- is above or warmer than 0.5 C compared to average temperature over the last 30 years I think, that's El Nino. If the SST anomaly is below or colder than -0.5 C, that's La Nina. So if the SST is between -0.5 to +0.5 C, say -0.35 C or 0.48 C, that's the neutral zone, neither El Nino nor La Nina, just developing towards either condition.

Here is the time series data over the past 67 years, 1950-2017. Prominent recent big El Nino years were 1998 and 2016, while prominent recent La Nina years were 1989, 1999-2000, and around 2008, 2011.

On average, the El Nino - La Nina cycle (yes, it's a cycle, like global warming - global cooling cycle, wet-dry cycle in the Tropics, winter-spring-summer-fall cycle in the North and South Hemisphere, water evaporation-condensation cycle, etc.) occur six years or so, three years El Nino development, another three years La Nina development.

So the UN, Al Gore, many governments, are dishonest and deceptive when they say that anthropogenic (or man-made) global warming is "unprecedented" (no precedent) and "unequivocal" (no ambiguity, so sure).

What, no previous ,global warming precedents over the past 4.6 B years of planet Earth's history? Big lie. And no global cooling that happen after global warming phase? Big lie. And climate change, climate cycle is not natural (nature-made), only man-made? Big lie.

I hope that by 2018 and the coming years, that big fake news by the UN, governments, big activist environmentalists will be exposed.

Climate Tricks 52, Counting temp. change only from the end of LIA

This month proves to be the hottest month of the year almost always. Generally cloudless sky although there are days that the clouds would be staying for a few hours. The consolation is that this big El Nino of 2015-2016 will end soon, when it touches the threshold 0.5 C temperature anomaly.

Bloomberg produced this drama story, Earth's Temperature Just Shattered the Thermometer.
Haha, the earth is 4.6 B years old, and the UN and others' baseline is the past 140+ years only? Clever starting point because that was also the end of the little ice age (LIA). Global temp has no way to go but up.

Honest research should go back to temp records over the past 2,000 years, 400,000 years, 1 million years, 1 billion years, etc. There are many paleo-climate data that are freely available on the web.

Plato was born nearly 2,500 years ago (424 BC). He was older than the medieval warm period (MWP), the Roman warm period (RWP). What was the global temp during his time compared to current global temp.? Much warmer. See the start of the graph, on the left.

http://s90.photobucket.com/.../Subatlantic_Had.png.html

Climate change (CC) is true, it has happened in the past, happening now. But CC is mainly natural (nature-made, not man-made) and cyclical (not 'unprecedented"). Climate changes from warming to cooling to warming to cooling to .... endless cycle. Now, big El Nino is fading, so what's next? Big La Nina. Like this El nino- La Nina cycle since 1950.

The last big El Nino was in 1997-98, Presidential election period too. I heard that many farmers in Mindanao were even selling their votes for as low as P50/head because they were so desperate. But at least no road occupation then, unlike the recent Kidapawan road occupation.

We still need environmental protection -- like converting low-lying areas into lakes, man-made lakes. For the rivers of Bulacan and Pampanga in particular, they need lots and lots of huge and sustained dredging, will require tens of billions of pesos perhaps, as we prepare for rising rivers and lakes, not rising ocean.

Here's the latest projection for La Nina -- by mid June this year or two months away. For how long, until 2017 or even beyond.

Yesterday, "Earth Day" and many government leaders in NYC were saying "we need more money to fight man-made warming and CC" by signing the Paris COP 21 agreement. More money, more UN power, more environmental regulations and energy taxation/subsidies. More carbon confusion and simply more government.
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See also:

Climate Tricks 48, Denying climate cycles, January 13, 2016 

Climate Tricks 49, No extreme weather, no severe storms in the past? January 14, 2016 

Climate Tricks 50, Letter to the US HOR Committee on Science, Space and Technology, January 30, 2016

Climate Tricks 51, The CCC, Greenpeace and fossil fuels, February 01, 2016

TIME mag. on global warming (2)

These pictures and headlines from TIME magazine somehow summarizes their confusion: less rain or more rain, less snow or more snow, less storms or more storms, less cats or more cats, they are all proof of "man-made" global warming or climate change. From the cooling of the 70s to the warming of the 90s and back to the cooling in recent years (except the 2010 and 2015 El Nino), they are all proof of global warming, and of more severe warming the coming years and decades. See the original picture and dozens of comments here, Time Magazine and Global Warming.


In January 11, 2011 (1-11-11), the US mainland was nearly 70 percent covered with snow.

Global cooling is more dangerous, more fatal, than global warming. Many people in the Northern Hemisphere are praying and wishing that man-made warming was true and not fiction. These 3 pictures are from yahoo news.

My sister and her 2 kids went to Florida in early 2011. They complained that they never expected below zero C temperature in the supposedly warm state of America and so, they brought thin jackets. But they were lucky nonetheless, they were not battered by severe snowstorms that caused many flight cancellations, stranded cars, buses and trains, in the middle to northern states.

The drama and lunacy associated with climate alarmism continues. Ahh, there are huge and endless global climate junkets to enjoy for the leaders of the AGW movement. There are trillions of dollars of climate money to collect, redistribute and centrally plan.

Ok, here's the latest global air temperature data, from the Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and Dr. Spencer, as of September 2015. There is cooling trend in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, but continued warming in the tropics due to the current El Nino.

source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/10/uah-v6-0-global-temperature-update-for-sept-2015-0-25-deg-c/

Global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 9 months:

YR MO GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2015 1 +0.28 +0.40 +0.16 +0.13
2015 2 +0.18 +0.30 +0.05 -0.06
2015 3 +0.17 +0.26 +0.07 +0.05
2015 4 +0.09 +0.18 -0.01 +0.10
2015 5 +0.29 +0.36 +0.21 +0.28
2015 6 +0.33 +0.41 +0.25 +0.46
2015 7 +0.18 +0.33 +0.03 +0.48
2015 8 +0.28 +0.25 +0.30 +0.52
2015 9 +0.25 +0.14 +0.17 +0.55

Climate Tricks 16: On GMST, the Sun, GISS, HadCRU, and Coal

I am reposting several graphs from four different sources below about the "alarming" global warming in the planet.

1. From WUWT, Empirical Model of the Global Mean Sea Temperature (GMST)
by Girma Orssengo, PhD, September 3, 2012
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/03/empirical-model-of-the-global-mean-surface-temperature/#more-70317

IPCC’s climate model prediction for a global warming of about 0.2 deg C per decade for the next two decades is contrary to the observed climate pattern....

Note that for the parameters of the model given in Equation 1, the Residual GMST from 1885 to 2011 shown in Graph “b” has zero mean and zero trend. The result shown in Graph “e” indicates the cooling of the Multidecadal Cyclic GMST until about 2030s. This result suggests La Nina conditions will dominate in the next twenty years. Finally, Graph “f” demonstrates there was no change in the climate pattern before and after mid-20th century, contrary to IPCC claim....

2. Also from WUWT, The Sun -- still slumping
by Anthony Watts, September 3, 2012
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/03/the-sun-still-slumping/

The latest solar cycle update graphs have been released by the NOAA SWPC today, and the anemic cycle 24 continues (upper graph)
The current count isn’t keeping up with the prediction line in red. Not only is the sunspot count low, so is the 10.7cm radio flux and the Ap magnetic index (lower graph).

See brief discussion on Sun-Climate theory, Climate stupidity 10: The Sun and GCRs don't affect climate?

Climate Tricks 14: Flooding, El Nino and Arctic Ice

* This is my article today in the online magazine,
http://www.thelobbyist.biz/perspectives/less-gorvernment/1340-rain-rain-everywhere
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It has been raining almost daily since nearly three weeks ago here in Metro Manila and other provinces in the country. Just last week, my daughter did not go to her kinder school for three days due to cancellation of classes. The rains yesterday and today though, are stronger. There are forced evacuations in many river deltas, in San Mateo, Rodriguez, Marikina, Pasig, and other places in surrounding provinces. I got news from my folks in Negros Occidental that heavy rains were also pummeling the province and nearby islands.

Here is the latest graphics of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (deviation from normal temperature) as of August 06, 2012. The Philippines, from north to south, from east to west, has between 0.5 to 1.5 C colder than normal. The colder than normal weather and SST is also experienced in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, southern Thailand and Vietnam, northern Australia.

Source, http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif

El Nino has actually returned, since last month, after nearly two years of La Nina and cooling. This El Nino-La Nina natural cycles occur every 3-4 years on average, although in global cooling period, La Nina are longer by several months than El Nino phases. But from the above image, Nino region 3.4 (central tropical Pacific) seems to have slumped back into cooling, especially the northern part.

Bob Tisdale showed the long term condition in Nino 3.4, the main indicator of whether the planet is entering an El Nino or La Nina phase. Bob did not put a linear trend here, but the trend is either a flat lining, or a decline in SST temperature anomaly there.

Source http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/08/06/july-2012-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/#more-2023

Meanwhile, some warming religionists keep painting a bleak future scenario of the planet. Here is one example: a projection in 1972 that the Arctic will be ice-free by 2000 or 12 years ago. I put beside the news story, the most recent charts and satellite photos of the Arctic ice, as of two or three days ago.

Sources:

1. News report, http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=zmI0AAAAIBAJ&sjid=L5wEAAAAIBAJ&pg=5376,3200988&dq=ice+free+arctic&hl=en

2. Graphs and satellite photos, from http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

In particular: from top right:

a. Arctic sea ice extent, from International Arctic Research Center-Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (IARC-JAXA),
b. Arctic sea ice extent, from Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
c. Arctic mean temperature, above 80 deg N, from DMI
d. Satellite photo of Arctic sea ice extent with anomaly, from National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

So those people who keep saying that “polar ice are melting at alarming rate” or “ice-free Arctic” or “ice free Antarctica” in _____ years (the shorter the more alarming the better) either do not know what they are talking about, or simply fooling and deceiving us.

Back to flooding in the Philippines. The warmists should admit it -- the planet is not warming. In certain areas or certain times, the planet is plunging into deep cooling. More rains, more flood, are not indicators of global warming.

Problem is that climate fanatics have turned their craft into religion. Regardless of data showing otherwise, they simply believe, they simply have faith, on warming.

Now we wait how many died, how many were evacuated, how many millions worth of properties and crops were damaged. And man-made warming has nothing to do with it but it keeps being blamed.
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Meanwhile, the rains and flooding have not stopped yet until now, evening of August 08. This afternoon, I entertained my two young daughters when I had fun in a flood in front of our gate :-)

See also:
Climate Tricks 9: Ignore Skepticism, Flat-lining Temps, June 13, 2012
Climate Tricks 10: Demonize CO2 as a Pollutant and Evil Gas, July 03, 2012
Climate Tricks 11: Coal and James Hansen, RE Law and the WWF, July 18, 2012
Climate Tricks 12: More Flooding is Caused by Warming, July 21, 2012
Climate Tricks 13: Block Skeptics and Keep Fooling the Public, July 25, 2012
Manila Flooding, August 2012, August 07, 2012

Climate stupidity 21: Global Cooling and Durban

As global temperatures -- air/troposphere, land surface, sea surface -- are falling, the UN and many high government climate/environment officials from many countries are preparing for the 17th Conference of Parties (COP 17) meeting in Durban, South Africa, this coming November 29 to December 9. Their mission, as usual, is to "fight man-made warming and climate change."

The usual junketers of endless global climate meetings are preparing their most alarmist presentations, photos and predictions, that unless taxpayers will send them more money, the world will burn with more catastrophic warming and cooling, more drought and no drought, more rain and less rain, more snow and less snow, more hurricanes and less hurricanes. more strong typhoons and mild typhoons. After all, whatever weather or climate the world or countries and continents will have, catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) is true and cannot be negated.

Below is my article today in the online magazine, the lobbyist.biz.
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http://www.thelobbyist.biz/perspectives/less-gorvernment/1226-bitter-global-cooling

LESS GOVERNMENT

Discusses why more personal and parental responsibility, more competition, less politics, less taxes and less coercion will bring more peace and prosperity in society.

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Bitter Global Cooling

TUESDAY, 08 NOVEMBER 2011 02:37

WRITTEN BY NONOY OPLAS

Tags: Less Government

Re-emergence of La Nina without passing through an El Nino stage, drastically falling global air and tropospheric temperature, heavy flooding in several countries in East Asia. These are among the indicators of a bitter global cooling that is engulfing the planet.

Here is the recent temperature anomaly (or deviation from the average temperature) of the lower troposphere, global. Source of next two graphs, http://www.drroyspencer.com.

Climate stupidity 20: Deep cooling, Vietnam flood

Guys, prepare for even deeper and longer global cooling. Click on these graphs to see their larger images.

Graph on the left, sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for Nino Region 3.4 of equatorial Pacific Ocean, actual anomaly from 2006-2011. Graph on the right is both actual and projections (black dotted line) for Nino 3.4, from mid-October 2011 to July 2012.

There are two bad news here, especially for the peddlers of "more man-made global warming/climate change" stupidity. One, the current La Nina and global cooling will be longer than the 2007-2008 global cooling was only about 1 1/2 years and it was already bad. The current cooling, started in May 2010, might last through end-2012 (or 2 1/2 years) or even longer. And two, the cooling will be even deeper, up to -3 C drop compared to the average temperature.

Upper graph is SST anomaly in Nino 3.4 from 2000-2011 (12 years). See the up-down-up-down cycle of temperature anomaly in the planet's biggest ocean and biggest receiver of solar energy everyday.

Lower graph is from 1950-2011 (62 years). Source of the above graphs are from WUWT's ENSO page. Check that page, ALL data and graphs, zero discussion or interpretation. Make your own interpretation and conclusions. There are other important reference pages in that website, like sea ice (Arctic and Antarctica), solar energy and geomagnetic field indexes, and so on.

Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, other neighbors of the Philippines were not spared of the heavy rains and flooding. Rather scary pictures and news reports about the extent of flooding and casualty in Vietnam last month alone.

I have briefly discussed and showed photos of the recent flooding in the Philippines, Typhoon Nesat ("Pedring") in pictures, September 28, 2011. Check also photos of Thailand flooding, October 2011, October 15, 2011

So it is rather idiotic to hear some warming leaders proclaiming that those heavy flooding are "proof of man-made warming and climate change." Warming will cause less rain and more rain?

The above graphs show that people should expect rising rivers, rising lakes, NOT rising ocean. Notorious climate liars like the WWF and Greenpeace keep fooling the public -- and get more money from them.

Update: Just now, I read an article from the NYT today.

Really? Sure? There are less ice in the Arctic so that ships can soon navigate an "ice free" Arctic?

Climate alarmism in media is among the most notorious peddlers of climate stupidy. The New York Times included. See this satellite picture and graph below.

Satellite picture of the Arctic ice as of two days ago, October 16. Wide ice that covers almost the whole of Greenland, portions of Canada, Alaska, Norway, other places.

And how big is this ice as of this week?

About 4.5 million sq. kms., or about 15x the total land area of the Philippines (0.3 million sq.kms.) or about 8x the size of France (0.64 M sq. kms.) or about 6x that of combined area of Germany and Japan. And the ice will keep growing in the coming months.

Hogwash and garbage in climate stupidity is everywhere. Yeah.
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See also:
Climate stupidity 18: Warming causes more storms and less storms, September 26, 2011,

Climate stupidity 19: More severe typhoons are due to global warming, October 07, 2011

Climate stupidity 17: Cooling is caused by warming

(Note: this is my article yesterday in thelobbyist.biz with original title, Extended Cooling and the Brown Economy)

By “extended cooling”, I refer to the return of La Nina which started in May 2010 and ended around May 2011, and has returned this month. Two graphs are shown below, the upper graph is from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for Nino Region 3.4 of equatorial Pacific Ocean. The lower graph is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the US Department of Commerce.  Both and many other graphs are easily available at WUWT’s ENSO page, http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso

This is a “double dip” La Nina that would be similar to, or worse than, the 2007-2008 global cooling.

By “brown economy”, I refer to the frequent flooding and the brownish water from mud that we have been experiencing this year and in recent years. Remember typhoon “Frank” in 2008 (sinking of the boat ‘Princess of the Stars’, heavy flooding for 1 week in the several Western Visayas provinces), typhoons “Ondoy” and “Pepeng” in 2009.

As of this writing, typhoon “Mina” has been hovering the eastern side of the country for several days now. The Sun has been invisible almost everyday for two weeks now due to the thick clouds in the sky.

The return of La Nina has been confirmed by several “sophisticated, modern” climate models and if they turn out right, we will have a period up to 2 C colder than normal temperature sometime in March 2012. La Nina might also extend beyond July 2012, making the current La Nina among the longest in recent decades.

The implication is quite obvious: people should prepare for more rains and more flood, not more drought as the warming racket have been saying. People should prepare for rising rivers and lakes, not rising ocean.

Over at the northern and southern hemisphere of the planet, specifically the Arctic and Antarctica, there is no such thing as “alarming” melting of ice in either places. The two graphs below show that the ice there simply melt and grow each year, zero exception. Statements like “ice-free Arctic/Antarctica” are simply wrong and outright lies.

What the warming fanatics usually do is to take a pictures of some big iceberg that have  separated and drifted away from the main ice mass, write a scary article about it as proof of a warming planet towards an “ice free Arctic summer in just 5-10 years”.

But why take pictures of those icebergs when satellite pictures of the entire Arctic and Antarctica areas are publicly and freely available, updated daily? See these two satellite pictures below.

As of this week, there were about 5 million sq.kms. of ice in the Arctic, and about 17 million sq.kms. of ice in Antarctica. How big are those areas? Well, the Philippines’ total land area is 0.3 million sq. kms.

Finally, the warming racket keeps blaming human CO2 emission like more coal power plants, more emission from our cars, buses, airplanes, boats, tractors, as the cause of global warming. This claim has been disproven several times. Take this graph for instance: global coal consumption has been rising fast over the past decade, while global temperature has been flat or declining.  Graph source: P. Gosselin,

Global Coal Consumption Jumps Almost 50% – Yet Global Temps Drop!, 25 August 2011

Nature keeps telling the warmers, “Shut up, warming-cooling cycles are the reality of my existence.”
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See also Part 16, Rising CO2 and cooling world, August 09, 2011, and
Part 14, AGW fiction and cooling reality, July 03, 2011