Showing posts with label Willie Soon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Willie Soon. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 03, 2015

Climate Tricks 39: Many Attacks on Dr. Willie Soon, He Replied

I just realized that there are at least 18 articles and reports attacking the famous Dr. Willie Soon, a Malaysian-American scientist at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, in  late February 2015 alone. Heartland Institute put a section about Willie alone, https://www.heartland.org/willie-soon. The various articles attacking him, and articles defending  him, are posted there.

Yesterday, Willie replied, posted in WUWT, and I am reposting it below. 

Willie is a cool guy, I have met him twice, in NYC in 2009 and in Chicago in 2010, during the Heartland's 2nd and 4th ICCC, respectively. Our photo in 2009. From left: Barun Mitra (India), Willie, Jose Tapia (Peru), me. We were the very few non-Caucasian guys in that conference.
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In recent weeks I have been the target of attacks in the press by various radical environmental and politically motivated groups. This effort should be seen for what it is: a shameless attempt to silence my scientific research and writings, and to make an example out of me as a warning to any other researcher who may dare question in the slightest their fervently held orthodoxy of anthropogenic global warming.

I am saddened and appalled by this effort, not only because of the personal hurt it causes me and my family and friends, but also because of the damage it does to the integrity of the scientific process. I am willing to debate the substance of my research and competing views of climate change with anyone, anytime, anywhere. It is a shame that those who disagree with me resolutely decline all public debate and stoop instead to underhanded and unscientific ad hominem tactics.

Let me be clear. I have never been motivated by financial gain to write any scientific paper, nor have I ever hidden grants or any other alleged conflict of interest. I have been a solar and stellar physicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics for a quarter of a century, during which time I have published numerous peer-reviewed, scholarly articles. The fact that my research has been supported in part by donations to the Smithsonian Institution from many sources, including some energy producers, has long been a matter of public record. In submitting my academic writings I have always complied with what I understood to be disclosure practices in my field generally, consistent with the level of disclosure made by many of my Smithsonian colleagues.

If the standards for disclosure are to change, then let them change evenly. If a journal that has peer-reviewed and published my work concludes that additional disclosures are appropriate, I am happy to comply. I would ask only that other authors-on all sides of the debate-are also required to make similar disclosures. And I call on the media outlets that have so quickly repeated my attackers’ accusations to similarly look into the motivations of and disclosures that may or may not have been made by their preferred, IPCC-linked scientists.

I regret deeply that the attacks on me now appear to have spilled over onto other scientists who have dared to question the degree to which human activities might be causing dangerous global warming, a topic that ought rightly be the subject of rigorous open debate, not personal attack. I similarly regret the terrible message this pillorying sends young researchers about the costs of questioning widely accepted “truths.”

Finally, I thank all my many colleagues and friends who have bravely objected to this smear campaign on my behalf and I challenge all parties involved to focus on real scientific issues for the betterment of humanity.

Dr. Wei-Hock “Willie” Soon
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
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See also:: 
It's the Sun, stupid!, March 26, 2009 

Climate Tricks 36: Avoid Looking at Data 450,000 Years Ago or Longer, December 29, 2014 
Climate Tricks 37: Climate Money and the Scientific Dishonesty Behind It, January 31, 2014 

Climate Tricks 38: Threats and Witch Hunt of Skeptical Scientists, March 02, 2015

Monday, March 02, 2015

Climate Tricks 38: Threats and Witch Hunt of Skeptical Scientists

The anthropogenic or "man-made" warming/climate change camp is getting desperate, some or many of them are turning to outright threats and witch hunting. See these news reports below.

From truthout.org, November 12, 2014. This camp of environmental militants want to promote deindustrialization, to junk modernity, meaning we go back to the dark  ages? For these eco-socialists, modern life like having more computers and mobile phones, more internet acccess, and capitalism is something that we should be ashamed of. But they are using products of capitalism like fb, youtube, google, etc. to advertise their anti-capitalism campaign, 

A troubling news from Daily Mail in UK, urging children of skeptical writers to kill their parents. The extent of  intolerance by the "man-made" warming establishment seems to have not diminished yet.

This petition in avaaz dated December 10, 2014, is weird. It says,

Fossil fuel companies have polluted the earth due to the sale of their products. Climate change is real and caused by humans. We need to press charges in a Humanity backed class action lawsuit. To press charges for the deaths that have occurred from climate change, and the deaths of all life which will be certain to be near total if we continue on this path. We are in the 6th great mass extinction. I am pressing charges for the death of all life on this planet. Attempted murder of all life on this planet against fossil fuel companies.

And this group, they advocate climate control, birth control, population control. One thing that the eco socialists do not want is governments and UN control. Governments and the UN should keep expanding and climate money, climate junkets, should keep expanding. From interaksyon.com

Climate witch hunting. The political and congressional pressure is too much for some scientists who want to remain independent minded. New victim is Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. From Daily Caller, February 25, 2015.

"University of Colorado climate scientist Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. has been targeted by Arizona Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva, the ranking liberal on the House Natural Resources Committee, for his research challenging the claim that global warming is making weather more extreme.

This investigation, and other attacks, have forced Pielke to stop researching climate issues. He said the “incessant attacks and smears are effective, no doubt, I have already shifted all of my academic work away from climate issues.”

From Dr. Roy Spencer.

The recent WH release of what amounts to a directive to go after “climate change deniers” (who the hell denies that climate changes?? Sheesh!) seems to have been the start of an orchestrated effort to shut us down.

That Roger Pielke, Jr. is one of the current ‘Skeptical Seven’ targets is especially troubling. Roger is quite green and hardly considers himself a skeptic. In fact, he largely agrees with the IPCC. All he asks is that people stop making demonstrably incorrect claims that “climate change” is causing greater damage today than it ever has. (Total monetary losses due to weather rise as prosperity and infrastructure increases, even if weather becomes somewhat less severe). Yet, Roger is now backing out of climate change related research due to the current witch hunt.

Another scientist that is repeatedly attacked by the CC establishment is Dr. Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Boston. If you can't face the message, shoot the messenger, NYT style,

A rebuttal from James Delingpole in Breitbart

What most definitely is scandalous is the vile hypocrisy of Soon’s harrassment by the warmist establishment, which receives billions every year from the US government, left-wing charities, and billionaire activists like Tom Steyer and George Soros to prop up their bankrupt cause by promoting exactly the kind of junk science which Soon (and similarly principled scientists) have made it their business to shred.

The warmists are losing their argument. Their desperation is beginning to show.

And from Hockey Schtick, NYT/Greenpeace think these 4 graphs showing a remarkable130-year solar-climate relationship were fabricated by the oil industry


Resorting to  witch hunting, personal attacks, is one sign  of desperation. From them who deny that  CC is natural and cyclical, who deny that global cooling can also happen, who deny that CO2 is a useful gas to plants, trees, animals and people.
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See also::
Climate Tricks 33: UN Fooling Government Leaders to Accept Expensive Energy, September 25, 2014 
Climate Tricks 34: Watermelon Movement, Green Outside, Red Inside, October 07, 2014 

Climate Tricks 35:Follow the Money, Trillions of $$$, December 10, 2014 

Climate Tricks 36: Avoid Looking at Data 450,000 Years Ago or Longer, December 29, 2014 

Climate Tricks 37: Climate Money and the Scientific Dishonesty Behind It, January 31, 2014

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Climate Tricks 33: UN Fooling Government Leaders to Accept Expensive Energy

Reposting here a good article written by a friend, Dr. Willie Soon, a Malaysian-American astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Boston, and Lord Christopher Moncton. Posted in Washington Times. I have met Willie twice, in NYC in 2009 and in Chicago in 2010.
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By Willie Soon and Christopher Monckton - - Thursday, September 18, 2014

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sensibly declined to attend yet another climate summit — this time called by Ban Ki-moon for Tuesday in New York under the auspices of the United Nations — which profits handsomely from much-exaggerated climate scares. Chinese President Xi Jinping and German Chancellor Angela Merkel likewise intend to skip the event.

Environmentalists have complained about Mr. Modi's decision. They say rising atmospheric carbon dioxide will cause droughts, melt Himalayan ice, and poison lakes and waterways in the Indian subcontinent.

However, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has already had to backtrack on earlier assertions that Himalayan glaciers would be gone within 25 years, and the most comprehensive review of drought trends worldwide shows the global land area under drought has decreased throughout the past 30 years.

The spiritual yet down-to-earth Mr. Modi knows that 300 million Indians still have no electricity. His priority is to turn on the lights all over India. In Bihar, four homes in five are still lit by kerosene.

Electric power is the quickest, surest, cheapest way to lift people out of poverty, disease, subsistence agriculture and childhood death — thereby stabilizing India's population, which may soon overtake China's.

The world's governing elites, however, no longer care about poverty. Climate change is their new focus.

For instance, in late August, the Asian Development Bank predicted that warmer weather would cut rice production, rising seas would engulf Mumbai and other coastal megacities, and rainfall would decline by 10 percent to 40 percent across in many Indian provinces.

Garbage in, gospel out. In truth, rice production has risen steadily, sea level is barely rising, and even the U.N.'s climate panel has twice been compelled to admit that there is no evidence of a worldwide change in rainfall.

Subtropical India will not warm by much. Advection would take most of any additional heat poleward. Besides, globally there has been little or no warming for almost two decades. Climate models did not predict that, casting doubt on all of the U.N. climate panel's "projections." The panel, on our advice, has recently all but halved its central estimate of near-term warming.

Sea level is rising no faster than for the past 150 years. From 2004 to 2012, the Envisat satellite reported a rise of one-tenth of an inch. From 2003 to 2009, gravity satellites actually showed sea level falling. Results like these have not hitherto been reported in the mainstream news media.

More than two centuries of scientific research have failed to make the duration or magnitude of monsoons predictable. Monsoons depend on sea and surface temperatures and wind conditions in the Indian and Western Pacific oceans, the timing of El Ninos in the equatorial Pacific, variations in Eurasian and Himalayan winter snow cover, and even wind direction in the equatorial stratosphere.

In 1906, forecasts depended on 28 unknowns. By 2007, scientists from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology were using 73. So insisting that just one variable — atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels — will drive future monsoons is unscientific.

IPCC climate models said monsoons would become more intense. Instead, they have weakened for 50 years.

Models also failed to replicate the 60-year and 200-year cycles in monsoon rainfall linked to solar cycles that are reflected in studies of ocean sediments from the Arabian Sea.

A new study led by K.M. Hiremath of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics shows a strong, possibly causative correlation between variations in solar activity and in monsoon rainfall.

Governments also overlook a key conclusion from the world's modelers, led by Fred Kucharski of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics: "The increase of greenhouse gases in the 20th century has not significantly contributed to the observed decadal Indian monsoonal rainfall variability."

Not one climate model predicted the severe Indian drought of 2009, followed by the prolonged rains the next year — a one-year increase of 40 percent in most regions. These natural variations are not new. They have happened for tens of thousands of years.

A paper for the scientific journal Climate Dynamics co-authored by B.N. Goswami, recently retired director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, shows why the models relied upon by the U.N. climate panel's recent assessments predict monsoons inaccurately.

All 16 models examined have the same fatal flaw: They predict rain too easily, by artificially elevating air and water masses in the atmosphere.

Models are not ready to predict the climate. Misusing computers to spew out multiple "what-if" scenarios is unscientific. This approach simply means "if all our unproven assumptions are correct, this could happen."

Most of the fundamental problems in our still immature understanding of climate have remained unresolved for decades. Some cannot be resolved at all. The U.N.'s climate panel admitted in 2001 what has been known for 50 years: Because climate is a "coupled, non-linear, chaotic object," reliable long-term climate prediction is impossible.

Misuse of climate models as false prophets of doom is costly in lives as well as treasure.

To condemn the poorest of India's poor to continuing poverty is to condemn many to an untimely death. Mr. Modi is right to have no more to do with such murderous nonsense. It is time to put an end to climate summits. On the evidence, they are not needed.

Willie Soon is a solar physicist and climate scientist based in Cambridge, Mass. Lord Monckton is a former expert reviewer for the Fifth Assessment Report of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) of the U.N.'s climate panel.
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See also::
Climate Tricks 31: High Intolerance by the Alarmist Camp, May 14, 2014
Climate Tricks 32: Yeb Sano and CCC to Save the Arctic, September 16, 2014

Wednesday, March 05, 2014

2nd ICCC in New York, March 2009

On March 6, 2009, my plane landed in New Jersey airport (route was Manila-Narita-Detroit-NJ, Delta Air). I saw small mounds of snow on the tarmac, other parts of NJ and New York. Days before that, there was a winter storm, dumping lots of snow. Some remnants of the snow. No, I did not shovel it, it was only for piture-taking :-)


That was in front of the house of my friend from UP, Leandro "Jojo" Chan who hosted me in his house in NJ for one day. The next day, March 7, I moved to my hotel in NYC, New York Marriot Marquis Hotel. Thanks again, Jo. 

This week or exactly five years hence, same Eastern US, see this news...

WASHINGTON - The eastern and central United States were gripped by a deep freeze on Tuesday, with record low temperatures in the wake of a deadly storm expected to moderate in the coming days.

The late-winter storm left behind frigid temperatures after pushing freezing rain and snow from the Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic coast on Monday.

"Tuesday will likely be the coldest morning from New York City to Washington, D.C., until next winter," the AccuWeather forecasting service said.

Temperatures across the eastern and central United States were about 30 Fahrenheit (15 Celsius) below normal, it said.

The National Weather Service said the mercury plunged to minus-1 F (minus-18 C) at Washington Dulles International Airport, tying a monthly record.

Baltimore Washington International Airport posted 4 F (minus-15.5 C), breaking a record for March set in 1873, it said....

Five years ago this month, I attended the 2nd International Conference on Climate Change (2nd ICCC) in NYC, March 8-10, 2009. The theme was "Global Warming: Was it Ever Really a Crisis?". I was able to have a photo with Vaclav Klaus, then President of Czech Republic and was among the keynote speakers at the conference, also author of the book "Green Planet in Green Shackles." 


Also a photo with Dr. Willie Soon, a Malaysian-American astrophysicist at the Harvard Smithsonican Center for Astrophysics. From left: Barun Mitra of Liberty Institute, India; Willie Soon; Jose Luis Tapia from Peru, me, and a participant from Africa, I did not know him, he just joined us in a photo op with Willie.


Of the 800+ participants and speakers, only Barun, me and Xingyuan Feng (from China) were Asians. And Willie, though he grew up in the US. I was the only South-East Asian, only Filipino there.

With Joseph "Joe" Bast, President of Heartland Institute in Chicago, the main sponsor of the conference.


And Alex Chafuen, President of the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Washington DC.


Meanwhile, from WUWT yesterday,  




See also:: 

Friday, April 01, 2011

Energy rationing 3: Restricting poor countries' access to cheap energy

Among the important goals of climate alarmism is energy rationing. "Non-renewable" energy like oil, coal and natural gas will be over-taxed, over-regulated, and be killed whenever possible, while "renewable" energy like solar, wind, biomass and hydro will be given all sorts of incentives, subsidies and mandatory assured market. See an example of such energy rationing and cronyism will be done in the Philippines in Energy rationing and climate alarmism, part 2.

Dr. Willie Soon, a Malaysian-American astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Boston, USA, and Barun Mitra, founder and Director of Liberty Institute in Delhi, India, recently wrote an article questioning this policy of energy rationing, especially for poorer countries like India and China.

In this photo, from left to right: Barun, Willie, Jose Tapia of ILE in Lima, Peru, and me. This was during the 2nd International Conference on Climate Change (2nd ICCC) in early March 2009 in New York City, sponsored by the Heartland Institute.

The joint paper by Barun and Willie, What really threatens our future? was published in The Edge Financial Daily in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. A friend from KL, Wan Saiful Wan Jan, CEO of IDEAS, helped to place the article in the said newspaper. Below are excerpts from Barun-Willie paper.

...power cuts and inadequate power are routine in developing countries like China and India. For them, going without electricity for hours or even days is the norm, not the exception.

But now, the UK’s power grid CEO is warning Brits that their days of reliable electricity are numbered. Because of climate change and renewable energy policies, families, schools, offices, shops, hospitals and factories will just have to “get used to” consuming electricity “when it’s available,” not necessarily when they want it or need it.

UN IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri justifies this absurd situation by sermonizing, “Unless we live in harmony with nature, unless we are able to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels and adopt renewable energy sources, and until we change our lifestyles, the world will increasingly become unfit for human habitation.”

Thus, people in poor countries who never had access to reliable electricity may be denied it even longer, while people in rich countries could soon face new electricity shortages.
Citizens of the world’s poor and emerging economies: Beware of claims that the greatest threat we face is from manmade climate change. They are wrong. The real threat is from energy starvation policies implemented in the name of preventing climate change....

People in rich countries will not give up their modern living standards, electricity, automobiles, airplanes, hospitals, factories and food. Mr. Pachauri certainly will not. Why, should people in poor countries give up their dreams?

During the Cancun climate summit, rich nations said they would give poor countries $100-billion annually in “climate change reparation and adaptation” money. But these are empty promises, made by nations that can no longer afford such unsustainable spending.

Poor countries that expect this money will end up fighting over table scraps – and whatever funds do flow will end up in the overseas bank accounts of ruling elites. The poor will see little or none of it.

For awhile longer, rich countries will continue supporting global warming research and conferences. Researchers, bureaucrats and politicians will continue issuing dire warnings of imminent catastrophes, while they enjoy the benefits of modern energy, traveling on airplanes, attending talk fests at fancy hotels in exotic locations – all powered by coal and petroleum.
They may continue telling the world’s poor how important and admirable it is that we keep living traditional, sustainable, environment-friendly lifestyles; getting by on small amounts of intermittent, unreliable, expensive electricity from wind turbines and solar panels; and giving up our dreams of a better, healthier, more prosperous life.

Ultimately, the climate change debate is really over just two things.

Whether we, the world’s poor, must give up our hopes and dreams. And whether we will determine our own futures – or the decisions will be made for us, by politicians who use climate change to justify restricting our access to reliable, affordable energy.

Which should we fear most? Climate change that some say might happen 50 or 100 years from now? Or an energy-deprived life of continued poverty, misery, disease, and forgotten hopes and dreams?

Our future is in our hands.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Chicago, 4th ICCC, day 1

Day 1, May 16, of the 4th International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC, www.heartland.org) held here in Chicago, USA, was more of networking and meeting new friends. Registration started at 3pm, cocktails at 5pm, opening dinner with speakers at 6pm. It ended past 9pm. Then another round of networking outside with open bar until 10pm.

Among those I have met yesterday were leaders of think tanks which are members of the Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change (www.csccc.info), among those which do not believe in “man-made warming” and more government environmental regulations and taxation. Like Julian Morris of the International Policy Network (IPN), Barun Mitra of Liberty Institute (India), Xingyuan Feng of CIPA (China), Martin Krause of CIIMA (Argentina), Jose Luis Tapia of ILE (Peru), Margaret Tse of IL (Brazil), Tim Wilson of IPA (Australia), Peter Holle of FCCP (Canada), Barbara Kolm of Hayek Institute (Austria), Wolfgang Mueller of IUF (Germany). Our group picture was at Jose’s camera, hope he can post or send it to us tomorrow so I can post the pics here.

Other important guys that I have met today are Dr. Willie Soon, a Malaysian-American astrophysicist as the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Boston. And Dr. Henrik Svensmark, a physicist at a Danish climate research office. Picture below with Henrik and Wolfgang Muller.



I also have a photo with Steve Goreham, author of the new book “Climatism” and Dr. Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit in Canada (www.climateaudit.com?) but the picture was blurred


Todays’s dinner speakers were Dr. Harrison “Jack” Schmitt, a geologist, former astronaut/moonwalker and former Senator, and Dr. Steve McIntyre. Jack talked about climate and environment policy and the US constitution. His conclusion is that while most energy and environmental policies may be legal, they may not be exactly constitutional as the US constitution specified certain limits on how and where the US Congress, the legislature. And Steve McIntyre talked about “climategate” and the “hide the decline” in historical climate records, and other climate data manipulations done by some scientists at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Ressearch Unit (CRU).

The UN IPCC and the UK government got a lot of climate “data” from the CRU, along with Prof. Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State U, which authored the “hockey stick” climate graph of the 20th century. What’s this graph?


Above are 2 graphs. The first is the “hockey stick” shape of data reconstruction by Prof. Michael Mann and was adopted by the UN IPCC: No warm period in the past 1,000 years, that’s why they call the current warming as “unprecedented” in history. Second graph below it is climate historical record accepted by many climate scientists showing the medieval warm period (MWP) that peaked in 1200 to 1300, a period much warmer than the warming of the past century, and the little ice age (LIA) of the “Maunder minimum” and “Dalton minimum” of the 1600 to 1800..

The “hockey stick” graph has gained notoriety for its notorious distortion of global historical climate records. Some people and groups made fun of it. Below is a sample of the graph, entitled “Mann-made global warming”, referring to a graph made by Prof. Mann. And beside the stick are the (a) program of the 4th ICCC, (b) my name badge, and (c) the book “Climatism” by Steve Goreham.


Among other materials that are distributed free in the conference are shown below. Materials from the Heartland Institute, Marhsall Institute, Pajamas Media, etc.


Other speakers that I have met tonight were Lord Christopher Moncton of the Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) and former UK environmental secretary under former PM Margaret Thatcher and meteorologist Anthony Watts of www.wattsupwiththat.com.

More stories and pictures tomorrow.

Friday, July 31, 2009

Scientists Speak: No "Consensus" on AGW

Below is a letter signed by 6 notable American scientists, published in a student paper at the Brigham Young University (BYU), USA. This letter was initiated by my friend, American-Malaysian astrophysict, Willie Soon.

Note, all of these 6 scientists have PhDs, they just did not put the title in their names in this letter. One of them is a geologist and former astronaut who was the last living "Moon walker", Jack Schmitt.

These 6 intelligent souls are saying only one thing: there was no scientific "consensus" to the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory in the past, no "consensus" until now, and there will never be one. Because the theory behind AGW is flatly wrong.

below is their letter.
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http://universe.byu.edu/node/1138

Viewpoint: Still a hot debate
Mon, 07/27/2009 - 20:54

Jeremy Kuhre recently suggested BYU students are unreasonably skeptical about global warming, in the face of “virtually unanimous” acceptance among climatologists of the belief our planet is “heating up.” He equates the students with people who maintain the lunar landing was a hoax.

We the undersigned have studied weather, climate and climate change for years — and we can state with certainty that there is no unanimous view among scientists on the matter of man-made catastrophic global warming.

One of us, Harrison Schmitt, actually stood on the moon, drilled holes, collected moon rocks and has since returned to Earth. He knows the landing was real.

Probably all climate and other scientists do agree our Earth warmed intermittently and slowly between 1850 and 1998 and has cooled slightly since then. But that is not the issue. The question is whether humans’ use of oil, coals and natural gas can cause a future global warming disaster — and on that there is tremendous disagreement, just as there is about the forces that are responsible for recent, current and past climate changes. This is the reason why over 31,000 scientists have signed the Global Warming Petition.

The opposition to the hypothesis of catastrophic climate change from rising atmospheric CO2 is legitimate, and it is the right and duty of all citizens, including American farmers, to ask questions and demand evidence and answers. The news media have contributed to the incorrect and biased view that recent warming was caused by human CO2 emissions and that future warming will be disastrous for humans, wildlife and our planet.

The media and political activists have also promoted policies that attack American liberties and harm and kill people, by diverting money, attention and energy resources from far more urgent and worthy purposes, such as reducing poverty, malaria and malnutrition and improving the living standards for everyone.

The issue of global warming is not a war of “expertise.” It is, or should be, an objective study of scientific measurements and data — which can now confirm atmospheric CO2 plays at most a minor role in causing weather and climate change.

BYU is an institution of higher learning that should promote the seeking of truth. Similarly, science is an objective assessment of hypotheses, testing concepts against actual data and observations; it is not a matter of votes, popularity or “virtual unanimity.” We are all harmed, if we allow our universities or our science to be politicized.

Harrison Schmitt
Geologist and Astronaut

Craig Idso
Geographer

David R. Legates
Climatologist

Art Robinson
Chemist

Noah Robinson
Chemist

Willie Soon
Astrophysicist
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Meanwhile, I wrote this two days ago:

Climate Alarmists BBC vs UK Met Office

It's interesting how a big climate alarmist media like BBC is now criticizing the UK's Meteorological office for whipping "barbeque summer" or "scorching summer" predictions in April of each year the past 3 Aprils, only for the British public to endure cold and wet summers, especially June-July. See BBC news report below.

Meanwhile, per Joe d Aleo's (or perhaps other scientists') monitoring of sunspot activity, since January this year, 76 percent of all days have zero sunspot, blank as in white paper. The implication for this in the Sun-climate link theory, is that more cooling is way ahead.

From what I have read, the Sun's magnetic field (as observed in the number of sunspots) creates solar wind. Strong solar magnetic field, strong solar wind. Which drives away cosmic galactic rays from the outer space that are suppose to help catalyze the formation of low-lying clouds, which blocks sunlight, which results in global cooling. With weak solar magnetic field, few or zero sunspots, more cosmic rays reach the Earth's atmosphere, they help form low-lying clouds, which mainly explains for the current global cooling.

David Archibald, a physicist, noted the other day that even NASA now admits that the Earth may be approaching the Dalton Minimum of global cooling, occured 2 centuries ago. I wonder what James Hansen, the top and most vocal climate alarmist in NASA, would say about the recent pronouncement of NASA?
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http://news. bbc.co.uk/ 2/hi/science/ nature/8173533. stm

Met Office cools summer forecast
By Roger Harrabin
BBC environment analyst

You will need a brolly on holiday in the UK in August - the Met Office is issuing a revised forecast for more unsettled weather well into the month.

It is a far cry from the "barbecue summer" it predicted back in April.

The news will raise questions about the Met Office's ability to make reliable seasonal forecasts.

But the organisation has defended its record, saying people have already forgotten the hot weather experienced across many parts of Britain in June.

It also highlights the absence of the sort of major floods that blighted 2007 and 2008; and the largely fine weather for the Wimbledon tennis championship, the cricket Tests and the Open golf.

The Met Office also says temperatures have been around or above normal, and that the end of August might be better again.

It did indeed stress at the time of the summer forecast in April that the odds of a scorching summer were 65%. It explains that it coined the phrase "barbecue summer" to help journalists' headlines.

But this has come back to bite the organisation because many people do not feel like they have been enjoying a "good" summer, especially compared with previous searing years....

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Hot Meetings and Cold Weather

Note: this is my article last week, it has plenty of links which may not be shown here. To see those links, visit this online paper where this article was first posted:

http://www.thelobbyist.biz/lobbyist.biz/perspectives/columns/back_to_personal_responsibility/737.html
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There have been a number of recent reports showing that current global cooling is getting more pronounced and obvious, sometimes adversely affecting agricultural production.

Among these reports (all dates refer to 2009) are:
(1) Crops under stress as temperatures fall (The Sunday Telegraph, UK, June 14);
(2) Canadian Wheat Output May Fall on Dry, Cool Weather (Bloomberg);
(3) Southeastern Missouri farmers try to overcome wet spring, soggy crops (TV4 Kansas City);
(4) Canada frosts the most widespread in recent memory (Reuters, June 9);
(5) Cold weather, late-blooming flowers stymie Washington, Oregon tulip festivals (The Oregonian, March 31);
(6) Many forecasters have one word this summer: COOL (Climate realists, June 16);
(7) Dickinson ND sees first June snowfall in 60 years (WUWT, June 6);
(8) Great British summer goes from sweltering to shivering in just a week (Daily Mail, June 6);
(9) Shoveling hail in sandals? NJ (wcbstv.com, June 16);
(10) First ever icewine in Brazil (ICECAP and WUWT, June 16).

There are many other news and blog reports, complete with pictures, how global cooling is showing and affecting agriculture in various parts of the world. Here in the Philippines, there are a few reports how the early onset of rains this year in the Philippines – it started mid-April, instead of June – has affected summer crops. I personally saw for instance, an onion farm in western Pangasinan that suffered heavy losses when about 2 weeks before scheduled harvest by end-April, the onset of rains in mid-April damaged the onions. These onion farms are established by onion farmers from Nueva Ecija only during the summer months, as the land will revert back to ricefarms for 2 cropping period starting June.

It should be noted though that when media people report about the cooling trend (early rains and typhoons, often cloudy skies), they still refer to it as “climate change due to global warming”. If there is global warming, then there should be less rains, less clouds, more drought, more hot days, right?

The main perpetrators of the global warming hysteria are the various leaders in governments, the UN, NGOs, and some business interests. While most climate indicators point to falling global temperatures – an exact opposite of what the UN IPCC predicted of ever-rising temperatures until 2100 – there are simply too many global meetings by the above-stated group of leaders. Their goal is to hammer a post-Kyoto Protocol agreement (expiring in 2012) that will pressure if not coerce countries to drastically cut their carbon emissions which they blame as the main cause of global warming and climate change.

Last March, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held its climate change talks in Bonn, Germany. Then another 2-weeks meeting in the same city last June 1-12, ending only last Friday. This week, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is holding a High Level Dialogue on Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific, June 16-17 here in Manila, and UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer is one of the keynote speakers.

Another UNFCCC meeting in August, also to be held in Bonn. Another meeting in late September to early October in Bangkok, Thailand. Another meeting in early November in Barcelona, Spain. And ultimately, a 2-weeks meeting in December in Copenhagen, Denmark.

These are just among the few international meetings on-going and scheduled for the next 6 months. Other rich goverments have also sponsored and hosted international meetings on their own over the past few months, with generally the same set of environment and climate officials and carbon cutting “negotiators”.

As I have shown in my recent articles in this online paper here and here, carbon dioxide (CO2) has little or no contribution to recent warming (until 1998), and much less in the current cooling. The Sun, its solar irradiance and sunspot activities or inactivity, is the main driver of climate changes (warming and cooling) in the planet.

Last June 2, the Heartland Institute sponsored the 3rd International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC) in Washington, DC. Among the speakers there was my friend, Dr. Willie Soon, the only world-reknown Asian-American astrophysicist and geoscientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. I met him during the 2nd ICCC last March in New York City, also sponsored by Heartland Insitute. A number of the charts that I showed in my recent talks on climate alarmism here in Manila were lifted from Dr. Soon’s presentation.

Also during the 3rd ICCC, a new report by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), "Climate Change Reconsidered", was formally launched. It is the report on global warming that the UN IPCC should have written—but didnt. The 880-page report rigorously critiques the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the UN IPCC, which concluded that harmful global warming “very likely” has been due to human activity in the release of greenhouse gases. The science behind that conclusion is soundly refuted in that report, coauthored by Dr. S. Fred Singer and Dr. Craig Idso. Full text of the report and related materials can be found at http://www.nipccreport.org.

The battle for sanity and reason vs global ecological central planning is a hard one. Governments and the UN, pushed by influential international NGOs and business interests that will benefit from the hundreds of billion dollars per year of carbon trading alone, are hell-bent on continuing the warming hysteria. Several hundred billion dollars more on carbon taxes, subsidies to renewable energy plants, the hundreds of new climate bureaucracies that are sprouting up in almost all countries, these vested political and economic interests conspire to continue the warming scam so that they can dictate how we should run our lives.
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Yesterday, I posted this short note in facebook:

"Pondering that with the US government's (a) huge borrowings for the fiscal stimulus, (b) another huge borrowings for health care, and (c) cap and trade bill passed by the House, Mr. Obama is very successful in making taxes, energy prices and commodity prices very high, very soon."

I got 3 short comments, one of which from Vanni,

"Hi Nonoy! You are right on the money my friend. I think the U.S. has only two options. One, declare bankruptcy or inflate their way out of their debts. Your guess is as good as mine. Cheers."

I thanked them for the comments. Obama's federal carbon tax alone will be around $93 B/year from 2012-19, on top of existing federal environmental taxes and various state carbon taxes. High overall taxes + high energy prices = low growth for the US. Which will mean lower export market for the Philippines and the US' other trade partners.

China should not follow the same economic-busting policies stemming from "CO2-induced warming" hysteria. China should take up the slack from economic slowdown in the US, it should continue growing fast, and it should continue to be the major buyer for many exporting countries like the Philippines.

The warming hysterics seem to be winning in politics even if they are losing in science. They want to conquer the world through ecological central planning, after economic central planning was proven to be a failure. But both are same dog with a different collar.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Heartland 2nd ICCC 2009: Politicizing science


New York – When something is politicized – whether it’s rice or wages, energy or just about anything, expect the politicians and bureaucrats, not the market players, whether they’re producers or consumers, to dictate the price and the rules of exchange.

Even in the field of science, when it is politicized, politicians and various political forces, not scientists, set the rules on how to tackle the perceived scientific problem.

Climate change alarmism and global warming scare can prove to be one of the greatest scams and taxation rackets that the world would ever know. The notion is: this is an anthropogenic (man-made) global warming caused by high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The result is large-scare climate, economic and social catastrophe. The solution is large-scale reduction in human emission of CO2, reduction in economic activities if necessary, just to “save the planet” and ourselves.

The flow in this logic looks rational except that there are plenty of premises that need to be satisfied before the above logic holds. Failure in any of those premises will cause the breakdown of the above reasoning and render it illogical. Consequently, this affects the all-encompassing proposals to cut down CO2 emissions by heavier government regulation and taxation, heavy subsidization (if not cronyism) of taxpayers’ money for favored “clean” energy sources, and the companies, consultants, expensive speakers and powerful lobby groups that benefit from alarmism.

These are among the important issues and topics that were discussed during the “International Conference on Climate Change” (ICCC) with a sub-theme, “Global Warming: was it ever really a crisis?” The event was sponsored by the Heartland Institute (www.heartland.org) and co-sponsored by 60 other private and independent think tanks from around the world, mostly from the US. Our group, Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc. (www.minimalgovernment.net) is one of the three think tanks from Asia that co-sponsored the event, held at the New York Marriot Marquis hotel in this city. I was given a travel scholarship by Heartland and I was able to attend the event from March 8 and concluded today, March 10. Well, I was the only Filipino participant out of around 700 people who came to that conference.

Among the important speakers in the event were Vaclav Klaus (getting his autograph of his book here), President of the Czech Republic and current President of the European Union (six-months term). A PhD economist by education, he wrote a book, “Blue Planet in Green Shackles (What is Endangered: Climate or Freedom?)”, published in 2007 by the Competitive Enterprise Institute (www.cei.org). I have a picture with him during the event, as well as a signed copy of his book.

There were plenty of known scientists-speakers during the event. Among them were Dr. Richard Lindzen, a Professor of Meteorology (with degrees in Physics and Applied Mathematics) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Jack Schmidt, an American geologist, former NASA astronaut, university professor and US Senator also spoke. He was the 12th and last person to walk on the moon.

Dr. Arthur Robinson who heads the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, spoke and dissected inconvenient contradictions in the “Inconvenient Truth”. He directed the Petition Project (www.petitionproject.org) which declared:

“There is no convincing evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environment of the Earth.”

This Petition obtained the support and signatures of 31,478 American scientists, 9,029 of whom have PhDs! I also got a copy of this Petition that contains the paper by Dr. Robinson and his two colleagues. It contains lots of graphs and scientific evidence, and the list of Petition signers alone, state by state, is 200 pages long.

A Swedish scientist, Dr. Fred Goldberg, professor at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, Sweden, and an authority on polar history and exploration, delivered a paper, “Do the planets and the sun control our climate and the CO2 in the atmosphere?” From the various graphs, charts and scientific tables that he presented, his answer was a clear “Yes”.

Dr. Laurence Gould, a professor of Physics (and Math, astronomy, etc.) at the University of Hartford, showed in his presentation that humans produce only 3.5% of all CO2 emissions in the air and CO2 comprises only 0.038% of the atmosphere. He noted that even if all Kyoto Protocol agreements were to be implemented, global temperature will decline by only 0.07 degree Celsius (at a cost of several trillion dollars of carbon and petroleum taxes, higher energy prices and lower economic, lower standard of living).

There were several dozen other scientist speakers, along with several economists, legislators and think tank leaders. But a striking speaker for me on the last day of the conference was Dr. Willie Soon, a Malaysian-American astrophysicist and geoscientist at the Solar, Stellar and Planetary Sciences Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

Dr. Soon (in this photo: Barun Mitra from India, Willie Soon, Jose Tapia from Peru) discussed a paper, “Disconnects in Sun climate studies: removing politics from science”, and he was very vocal in dissecting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG paper on solar forcing as largely a political document. His field is astrophysics and his research work showed with great clarity, that the Sun’s activities (radiation, sunspots and sunspot cycles, etc.) showed a direct and clear correlation with climate changes (cooling and warming cycles) over a long period of time.

The IPCC Report said there was no connection between the sun and climate changes. Dr. Soon also showed that CO2 emission has very little, if any, correlation to climate changes. He showed a chart for data collected in Salt Lake City, which shows that CO2 emissions were high during winter and recedes to low levels when summer comes. This suggests zero connection between CO2 emission and climate changes.

The IPCC report was also very adamant in arguing that it is not only carbon emission per se, but anthropogenic or man-made carbon emission that’s to blame for global warming and climate change!

There is absence of “consensus” therefore, among scientists around the world, to declare that anthropogenic carbon emission is the single biggest culprit that causes global warming, now billed as climate change.

From the long line-up of scientists who spoke during the conference, it showed that the above assertion has NO scientific basis at all. It also showed that the IPCC Report was a political document masquerading as a scientific paper to push certain political agenda like controlling people’s pockets and lives – how much petroleum and energy taxes to pay, what kind of energy sources they should or should not use (energy sources to be killed), what new tax-and-trade (a.k.a. “cap-and-trade”) schemes to be imposed, how much biofuel mix to be made mandatory for our vehicles, what percent of agricultural lands can be devoted to planting bio-fuels, etc.

The threats to economic growth and world food production as well as individual liberty is large due to the politicization of climate science to favor various rent-seekers, inside and outside of governments and inter-government bodies. It is a dangerous scheme that must be exposed to the public.

And what is the alternative? Do nothing. Do not legislate tax-and-trade schemes, do not legislate mandatory bio-fuels or ethanol for our vehicles, do not create new Presidential (and Governors’ and Mayors’) task forces or Commissions for climate change, do not raise petroleum taxes or hike existing rates, do not subsidize clean and renewable energy sources. There is big demand for renewable energies, many people will buy such energy even if it’s expensive than conventional and non-renewable energies.

Adaptation – not alarmism and bureaucratism, to climate change is the simplest and most effective way to deal with climate change, whether it’s global warming or global cooling.
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On February 01, 2009, I wrote this:

Global Warming Cancelled

Recently, the US and Europe experienced some of their most nasty and icy winters on record. Even tropical countries like the Philippines also experienced a long and oftentimes nasty “cold front” the past two months and until early this month. Consequently, news stories about global warming (GW) and climate change (CC) were not as frequent and virulent as last year.

The GW and CC scare, while supposedly a “wake-up call” for the rest of humanity to mend their ways so they can help “combat” GW and CC, is actually a very expensive and dangerous move. Expensive because all governments, rich and poor alike, are talking about several hundred billion dollars of funding and new foreign aid, to kill “dirty” energy sources and subsidize “clean” ones. Dangerous because GW and CC scare is being used as a convenient excuse to increase government control over the citizens’ lives, income and decision making.

The government will now be producing new rules and regulations, new bureaucracies outlining what acts by the citizens will be penalized with taxes and fees -- if not imprisonment, what acts to be given government subsidies, and so on. This is effectively a new form of social engineering where the State further shapes our lives, our working and spending habits and our relationship with other people.

Meanwhile, governments continue to set up dozens of new agencies and bureaucracies that require regular funding from tax money. In the Philippines for instance, the government created a new and big bureaucracy called the Presidential Task Force on Climate Change (PTFCC). This body has also created 14 “task groups” to cover wide issues from rainwater conservation to outdoors and rooftop structures, including regulating and penalizing some activities and providing incentives to others. The amount of new government personnel to be hired just to monitor, who are violating certain regulations and who deserves incentives like subsidies, will be huge.

Lucky though, there is a growing number of people, especially scientists and policy makers, NGOs and think tank leaders around the world, who are not enamored by the continuing GW and CC scare. They recognize that there is climate change, the same way that people change and cultures, communities and technologies change. But they do not believe that the answer is more government environmental and taxation regulations, but rather adaptation by the people to the changing climate and its consequences, changing hydrologic pattern, changing agricultural production, and so on.

One of such international think tanks that does not believe in the GW scare, is the Heartland Institute in Chicago. It is sponsoring the 2nd International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC), and it will be supported by more than 40 other independent think tanks including Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc., as co-sponsors. The event will be held in New York on March 8 to 10, 2009.

Among the speakers in the conference will be Vaclav Klaus, Jose Maria Aznar and Dr. Jack Schmitt. Vaclav Klaus is the President of the Czech Republic, and the current president of the European Union. He wrote a recently-published book, Blue Planet in Green Shackles, where he argued that the debate over GW has "become a symbol and example of the clash between truth and propaganda.”

Jose Maria Aznar is the former Prime Minister of Spain. He calls GW alarmism as a form of “new religion”. Dr. Jack Schmitt is a retired astronaut, the last living man to walk on the moon. Other speakers in the Conference will be Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; and Richard Lindzen of MIT and one of the world's leading experts in dynamic meteorology, especially planetary waves.

The current global financial turmoil proved to be an ally and a friend of GW scare. A friend because demand for petroleum products in many countries around the world has plummeted, resulting in lower oil consumption and lower air pollution. But it is also an enemy of GW scare because even governments of rich countries are running out of money for huge subsidies for “clean” energy sources, as governments are diverting huge amount of tax money for fiscal stimulus and to bail out their collapsing huge banks and corporations.

Adaptation by people, not more government environmental regulations and taxation, remains the best measure to cope with climate change.