Showing posts with label FTA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FTA. Show all posts

Friday, June 01, 2018

EFN Asia 67, Program of Conf 2006, KL

I rediscovered this while cleaning my inbox of old emails. I remember very well that conference because (a) it was my first time to go to Malaysia, (b) a day before there was a one-day forum by Atlas also on trade and I was one of the presenters, and (c) the subject of unilateral liberalization was articulated by several speakers like Aco Patunru (Indonesia) and Barun Mitra (India).

Here's the program 12 years ago.
-----------

Economic Freedom Network Asia Conference 2006

Preferential Trade Agreements
Local solutions for global free trade?

12th - 13th September 2006
Corus Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Welcoming address

Mohamed Ariff
Executive Director, Malaysian Institute of Economic Research
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Wolf-Dieter Zumpfort 
Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors
Friedrich Naumann Foundation
Berlin, Germany

Mark Mullins
Executive Director, Fraser Institute
Vancouver, Canada

Opening address

YBhg Tan Sri Dato’ Mohd Sheriff Mohd Kassim
Chairman, Board of Trustees
Malaysian Institute of Economic Research
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Introduction of Conference procedure
Mohit Satyanand
Moderator

Session 1: Models of Preferential Trade Agreements

“The European Union’s Strategies and Priorities”

Thierry Rommel
Ambassador and Head of Delegation
Delegation of the European Commission to Malaysia
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

“US Strategies and Priorities”
Colin Helmer
Counselor of Economic Affairs
Embassy of the United States of America
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

“International Models of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements”

Christopher Dent
Senior Lecturer
Department of East Asian Studies, University of Leeds
Leeds, United Kingdom

Session 2: Impacts of Preferential Trade Agreements in Asia

“The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Human Development in Asia”

Swarnim Wagle
Programme Specialist, UNDP Regional Centre
Colombo, Sri Lanka

“Malaysia and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements”

Mohamed Ariff
Executive Director, Malaysian Institute of Economic Research
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Session 3: Economic Freedom Indicators

“Indicators for Free Trade in Asia. The Economic Freedom of the World Index”

Robert Lawson
Professor, Capital University
Columbus, Ohio, USA.

“Chinese Marketisation Index”

Wang Xiaolu
Deputy Director, National Economic Research Institute
Beijing, China

“Capital Freedom Index”

Feng Xingyuan
Cathay Institute of Public Affairs
Beijing, China

“Chinese Public Governance Indicator”

Mao Yushi
Unirule Institute of Economics
Beijing, China

Session 4: Regional Trade Agreements in Asia

Panel Discussion on the South Asian Free Trade Agreement

Ugen Tschup Dorji
President, SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Bhutan

Rajesh Mehta
Senior Fellow, Research and Information System for Developing Countries
New Delhi, India

Dushni Weerakoon
Deputy Director, Institute of Policy Studies
Colombo, Sri Lanka

Panel Discussion on East Asia Free Trade Area

Kriengsak Chareonwongsak
Member of Parliament and Executive Board Member, Democrat Party
Bangkok, Thailand

Arianto Patunru
Deputy Director, Institute for Economic and Social Research, University of Indonesia
Jakarta, Indonesia

Young-Han Kim
Professor, Sungkyunkwan University
Seoul, Korea

Session 5: International Perspectives on Regional Trade Blocs

Ricardo Lopez Murphy
Chairman, Cívico-Republicana Foundation
Buenos Aires, Argentina

Andrej Illarionov (requested)
Director, Institute of Economic Analysis
Moscow, Russian Federation
---------------

Saturday, January 14, 2017

BWorld 104, Top 10 positive news in Asian trade

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last January 04, 2017.


Global trade has significantly slowed down in 2015 which is ironic because it was the start of significant oil price declines. After recovering from the 2009-2010 global financial turmoil that started in the US, global exports reached $18.3 trillion in 2011, $19.0 trillion in 2014, but declined to $16.5 trillion in 2015.

Nonetheless, there are some good news in Asian trade which battled this global trend in export decline.

Below is my list of these positive developments.

1 China, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and the Philippines did not follow this global trend. Their exports in 2015 were higher than their 2011 levels. For the Philippines, exports reached $58.6 billion in 2015, higher than 2011’s $48.3 billion.

2 Many Asian economies remain leading exporters and importers in merchandise or goods trade, led by China, Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.

3 Five ASEAN countries are important players in global merchandise trade with at least $150 billion in exports. The Philippines is playing a far catch up with Indonesia and Vietnam.

4 In services trade (including revenues from tourism and business process outsourcing (BPO) firms) many Asian economies still remain part of the big- and medium-size players, at par or even larger than the average European economies. The $915-billion revenues in 2015 is for all 28 EU economies.

5 Within the ASEAN, the Philippines is a medium-size services exporter while Indonesia did not belong to the top 50 in 2015 (see Table 1).


6 In some sectors, the Philippines ranked #10 globally in 2015 in the exports of telecommunications, computer, and information with revenues of $3.5 billion, and #6 in exports of computer services with revenues of $3.2 billion.

7 Of the economic blocs and free trade areas (FTAs) in the world, ASEAN is the third biggest next to the European Union and North American FTA (NAFTA). They are followed by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), European FTA (EFTA), SAARC Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA), and Mercado Común del Sur (MERCUSOR).

8 An expanded ASEAN + 6 (China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand) under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will easily overtake both the EU and NAFTA in total merchandise exports. Those six partners are huge exporters except New Zealand (see Table 2).


9 The statement “this is the Asian century” in terms of trade and GDP growth will become true starting this decade. The main factor to sustain this momentum is Asia’s huge and generally young population especially in India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam, comprising 1.7 billion people with an average age of only 24-25 years old which is one-half of the average age of Japan and many developed countries in Europe.

10 The statement “If America (or Europe) turns protectionist, Asia loses” is wrong. Whoever starts serious protectionism is the loser. Free trade creates good will with other countries while expanding the choices and options for local consumers and manufacturers, which expand their productive capacity.

Should Mr. Trump proceed with his campaign promise to ditch the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it can be good news for other Asian economies that are outside of the five Asian economies that are part of the TPP. They are expected to suffer some exports decline to big markets of the US, Canada, and Japan due to trade diversion from non-members to TPP members.

Freer trade and fewer restrictions in the movement of goods and people are becoming the norm in emerging and transitioning economies of Asia than in developed Asia, Europe, and America.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Minimal Government Thinkers and a SEANET Fellow. Both institutes are members of Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia.
---------------

Saturday, January 16, 2016

Free Trade 59, TPP membership expansion in SE Asia

The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement is expected to become operational and implemented around 2-3 years from now, when all the 12 member-countries have ratified the deal. The idea of zero tariff for many products among members is attractive enough. Meaning companies located in any member-country can buy from, and sell to, other members at zero, free trade prices.

I support the TPP. I will also support TPP membership expansion in the future to include the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, among others. Governments-negotiated free trade agreements (FTAs) are often not real free trade as there are many conditionalities. But protectionism and trade nationalism is worse than having bilateral and regional FTAs, especially huge ones like the TPP.s

Below are some news reports about the subject.
------------

"The reduction in the trade barriers within the TPP (with or without Philippine participation) results in trade creation within the TPP and trade diversion from the non-TPP...

The model results show that TPP participation will lead to an overall welfare gain for the Philippines. But the gain can potentially be higher. The analysis in the paper only considers additional yearly FDI inflows of US$1 billion over a 10-year period. While these inflows will improve the economy’s position relative to the FDI frontier..."

Potential Economic Effects on the Philippines of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
by Caesar B. Cororaton and David Orden
Revised February 2015

"Thailand is highly interested in joining TPP ...," Somkid Jatusripitak told a news conference in Tokyo. "Chances are high that Thailand will seek to join TPP."

Somkid, the country's economic tsar, said the government was analysing the impact of joining the trade deal, particularly on sensitive issues like agriculture and pharmaceuticals...."

"Indonesia should join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a way to promote structural reform. Such reform would include restructuring state-owned enterprises (SOEs), improving the investment climate, improving economic efficiency and productivity to create jobs for the nation’s surplus labor and promoting exports. The spectacular experience of East Asia indicates that East Asian countries have become more developed and prosperous during the past 60 years mainly due to their greater penetration into international markets through trade and incoming private investment." 

"Under the agreement, companies can gain substantial benefits from being located in TPP member countries and selling goods and services into other TPP member markets.

The most obvious change in a post-TPP world will be the reduction of tariffs. On the date of entry into force of the agreement, 90% of all goods tariffs in all 12 members will drop overnight to zero. The remaining tariffs will also drop, over time, with many eventually becoming duty free.

The tariff reductions mean that firms may no longer have to contend with tariff peaks—specific items or sectors where tariffs can easily reach 30, 50, or 150%. In many of these markets, companies hoping to export products have not been competitive. With the reduction in tariffs, new TPP markets should now be attractive to many firms." -- Deborah Elms, Dec. 10, 2015,

“The big winners on trade are likely to be the big winners on investment, especially over a 10-year period,” says Dr Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC.

In percentage terms, Mr Hufbauer expects Vietnam to be a big winner in both categories because it is coming from far behind the rest of the field. In addition, its tariffs on many imports – among the highest in the TPP trade area – will be lowered or eliminated. To get the maximum benefit from the TPP, Mr Hufbauer says Vietnam will need better technology and financial services, both of which will require FDI. “If Vietnam carries through on the reforms in the TPP, it will get a ton of investment,” he says.

"Japan, Vietnam and Malaysia are set to get a big economic boost from a sweeping Pacific trade agreement concluded in October, while the U.S. and other North American countries would see much smaller gains from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, according to the first detailed study of the pact."

"Being a part of the TPP is a significant component of our international trade strategy which has been in place over the past four years, the newly appointed Cabinet official said.
“Some estimated it may take another two years for the TPP to take effect, because there are provisions that lay down some conditions before it could take effect,” he said.

"The 12 nations agreed to a deal that, if implemented, would not only reduce or eliminate tariffs but rein in the advantages of state-owned enterprises and impose binding environmental standards.

Even though Beijing isn’t part of the deal, Obama administration officials say the rules will still challenge China to reform its economy in other ways. The TPP, endorsed by many former military officers, would also boost Washington’s ties with its allies in the region a time when China is flexing its economic and military muscles."


"Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have actually expressed interest to be part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), said the International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti).

Miti said this in its written response to issues raised by Dr Jomo Kwame Sundaram recently that countries such as Thailand and the Philippines had opted to distance themselves from this treaty."
------------

See also:

Sunday, August 09, 2015

Free Trade 50, the proposed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement

The proposed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement involving 12 countries in East and West Pacific, final negotiations collapsed last month.  Reposting some relevant news and views about the issue. This chart is from FT.com.


Some news reports on the subject. First, this old but long discussion in the Financial Times (FT). 

(1) FT.com, September 22, 2013. "

It is so difficult to envisage all 12 countries agreeing on such a complex agenda that some commentators have sought another explanation for the TPP. Many, noting the absence of China, regard it as a geopolitical club masquerading as a free-trade one. Until recently, editorials in the official Chinese media regularly thundered against the TPP, describing it as a plot designed to contain China’s rise...." 

(2) Harvard May 15, 2015. 

"Ironically, the insights of Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and indeed Paul Krugman, are more relevant than ever. Larger, more integrated markets raise living standards through increased specialization and greater competition. The old view of trade in which products are made in one country and sold in others no longer applies. Instead, goods and services are now “made in the world,” as final products are assembled using intermediate inputs from a large number of countries."


(3) LA Times, August 6, 2015. 

"Secretary of State John F. Kerry, in Singapore on Tuesday, hailed what he called "good progress" made during the meetings last week. In his speech, Kerry expressed confidence that the trade agreement will promote economic opportunities and a "stable, rules-based order for the Asia Pacific."

Deborah Elms, a trade specialist in Singapore, called the Hawaii meetings a big letdown given the expectations that a final agreement would be reached.

"I think the plan was to have John Kerry to do a victory lap in Singapore — to say that the pivot [to Asia] is here," said Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Center, a research and consulting firm. http://www.latimes.com/.../la-fi-tpp-talks-20150806-story...

(4) NYT, July 31, 2015.

"In the end, a deal filled with 21st-century policies on Internet access, advanced pharmaceuticals and trade in clean energy foundered on issues that have bedeviled international trade for decades: access to dairy markets in Canada, sugar markets in the United States and rice markets in Japan.

“No, we will not be pushed out of this agreement,” said a defiant New Zealand trade minister, Tim Groser, who held out for better access for his country, the largest exporter of dairy in the world.

Australia, Chile and New Zealand also continue to resist the push by the United States to protect the intellectual property of major pharmaceutical companies for as long as 12 years, shielding them from generic competition as they recoup the cost of developing next-generation biologic medicines." . http://www.nytimes.com/.../tpp-trade-talks-us-pacific...

(5) ATC, Deborah Elms, August 1, 2015.

"If I had to put my own finger on it, the immediate cause of collapse can be traced to Canada’s refusal to discuss dairy in any meaningful way until the final 3 days of negotiations. This was, as I have previously noted, a high risk strategy.

I assume officials gambled that, if they waited until the bitter end, everyone else would be so willing to get a deal done that they would take whatever poor offer Canada made on dairy liberalization.

The gamble could be taken, in part, because negotiations over dairy are infinitely more complex and time-consuming than equivalent difficulties in other sectors. For instance, another problematic issue for ministers in Hawaii concerned the patent length for biologic medicines. But the fight over patent length, while serious for participants, could at least be sorted quickly. The number was gong to be 12, 8, 7 or 5 years of protection. The choice might be hard, but once made, the final figure could be quickly slotted into the waiting text."

(6) IP WatchdogAugust 3, 2015.

"Contrary to the critics, the TPP Agreement should enhance access to medicines, through the economic benefits of greater trade and growth.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership can ensure that despite the difficulty, risk and expense of pharmaceutical innovation, firms continue to invest. International trade agreements such as the TPP set global precedents, which makes it even more critical that the agreement must ensure that innovation is protected, that breakthrough therapies are incentivized and that intellectual property protection is strong and enforced. The protections set forth in the TPP Agreement shouldn’t be a sticking point. Far from it. They should be a template for global IP rights that encourage innovation and enhance global health."  http://www.ipwatchdog.com/.../role-of.../id=60283/
--------- 

The best free trade agreement (FTA) of course, is one that has the least involvement of governments because only people and corporations trade with each  other, not countries or governments. The main function of governments including the multilaterals like the WTO and UN, is to have rule of law internationally, that agreements and contracts between and among companies and trade alliances are respected and enforced, violators are penalized based on transparent and mutually-agreed system of penalties.

We are far from that scenario, so we have to face what are currently existing, like the proposed TPP and other trade agreements. Of the 10 ASEAN countries, only four were invited in the TPP -- Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei. I think among the reasons why only those 4 countries were invited is because they have little restrictions on foreign investments. Even socialist Vietnam is more friendly to global capitalism than the PH or Indonesia.

I support the DTI and official government position that the PH should join the next round of TPP membership expansion. There is little chance that the PH can have a bilateral FTA with the US, the biggest, most innovative economy in the planet for the next decade or two. Vietnam and Malaysia will soon have greater access to the US, Canada markets compared to non-TPP members in the ASEAN.
----------

See also:


Friday, January 10, 2014

Free Trade 31: FTAs, EPAs and the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem

In the new facebook group that I created and moderate, Government and Taxes, Liberty and Responsibility, a friend, Dr. Yolanda "Yolie" Robles (former Dean, UP College of Pharmacy, Director at the Philippine Pharmacists Association, PPhA), posted in early December last year. The exchanges that followed were nice. Posting the exchanges as is. I just added the diagram of the Hechscher-Ohlin Theorem (HOT) here, not part of the original exchanges.
----------

December 4-6, 2013

Yolanda Robles HI Nonoy. Thanks for adding me to the group. I just attended an AIM-KOICA event in Makati with the theme: Korea as a Partner of ASEAN, Furthering Cooperation for Enhanced Partnership and Common Prosperity through ODA. In this, the NEDA Representative gave a concise report on what the present government does in terms of poverty reduction and employment generation. Comments from the participants include: "the focus of employment generation is still on services, and which may require more college graduates rather than those with lower educational attainment. The greater number of poor and unemployed are those in the latter group. Why not also reinvigorate manufacturing which could employ more people of different educational attainments." Well, what's your say on this?

Nonoy Oplas Thanks Yolly. I am not sure if there is an existing Japan-ASEAN EPA (Econ. Partnership Agreement), sort of a soft Free Trade Agreement (FTA). So S. Korea should be initiating a Korea-ASEAN EPA too.

About the comment, I think it is a misconception that those in the services sector are mostly the college graduates. Not true. The services sector include (a) trading, wholesale and retail including ambulant and public market vendors; (b) Transpo, storage and communication which includes airlines, buses, jeepneys, taxi, shipping lines, pump boats for hire, etc.; (c) real estate, renting and business activities that include hotels, inns, lodging houses; (d) public administration including LGUs, and (e) other services like restos, karaoke bars, etc.

It is not good to dichotomize the economy as "manufacturing and agriculture are crucial, services are non- or less-productive". Food manufacturing will become hollow if there are no supermarkets, convenience stores, sari-sari stores (all under the service sector).

Yolanda Robles Thanks for your comment. I think the surplus college graduates take also jobs intended for high school and vocational graduates. That's why less jobs are less available to the latter group. The surplus of college graduates reflects the greater preference for white collar jobs, the mismatch between education and human resource needs, among others. As for trade agreements, there is such a thing as ASEAN + 3. The 3 refers to China, Japan and Korea which ASEAN countries have trade agreements with 

Nonoy Oplas Yes, there is an ASEAN + 3, but it is only during the annual ASEAN summit, and not an EPA or FTA. So those 3 north Asian countries China, Japan, S. Korea initiate their own EPA or FTA with ASEAN as a bloc. Thus, a China-ASEAN FTA (I think to materialize by January 2015), a Japan-ASEAN EPA, and a S. Korea-ASEAN EPA/FTA. Since dealing with ASEAN as a bloc is more bureaucratic and more time consuming, some countries strike a bilateral EPA or FTA, that is why we have a Japan-Philippines EPA (JPEPA) and so on.

Yolanda Robles Yes, you are right. It was mentioned that Japan, South Korea, and China have country-specific agreements with some ASEAN countries and the current direction is to deal with ASEAN as a block 

Nonoy Oplas Meanwhile, here is an old graph that I developed in a talk on free trade, Atlas-FNF conference in Kuala Lumpur in 2005. Trade protectionism penalizes consumers and protects local producers, that is why free trade is being pushed to remedy the price distortion caused by protectionism.


I saw Dr. Poch Macaranas of AIM this afternoon, he's the former Director of the AIM Policy Center. He said he is helping in the ASEAN FTA (AFTA), ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and related issues, which should materialize by January 2015 (12 1/2 months from now) but has been moved to December 2015 or 2 years from now. I thanked him for that piece of info. 

Being an advocate of free trade, I can only say that once trade is politicized and bureaucratized, instead of having free, unconditional trade between and among people, it becomes "trade with permission" from government.

Bonn Juego Noy, again, your kind of economics does not know how to create a wealthy nation in the PH context, how capitalism itself can lead to productivity explosions for the benefit of the entire economy. Good that NEDA understands the qualitative differences that different economic activities - manufacturing, agriculture, services - have for economic growth and the whole socioeconomic development process. My approach, of course, combines, among others, Marx, Schumpeter, and Keynes. As I said, I find yours more like the 'libertarianism' of Ayn Rand and the Koch Brothers, than the 'liberal' economics of Smith, Ricardo, Hayek, and Friedman who at least have a sense of moral philosophy. Anyway, greetings from stormy Scandinavia!  

Friday, February 10, 2012

Free Trade 23: FNF on Free Trade Agreements

Is the Philippines mature enough for new age Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)? That question can be provocative. What if the answer is NO, what will happen -- the Philippines should not enter into new FTAs with other countries or bloc of countries? And what if the answer is YES, then the Philippines should explore even more free market policies beyond FTAs, like Hong Kong's unilateral trade liberalization policy?


It was a good forum sponsored by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF Philippine Office).

The opening remarks was given by FNF Country Director, Jules Maaten (top left, photos below), a cool and always smiling guy who was a member of the EU Parliament for 10 years before coming to Manila. I like Jules, he's very friendly. The ballroom was full. The Secretariat counted about 120 participants but I think there was more, some people who did not register and just listened to the talks. There were many university students too, brought by their professors from different universities in Manila.

The first panel was moderated by Toti Chikiamco, President of the Foundation for Economic Freedom (FEF). The three speakers were (1) Jessica "Jeck" Cantos, Chief of Staff of high LP official and Cong. Erin Tanada, (2) Dr. Alfredo Robles of De La Salle University (DLSU), and Amb. Hye Min Lee, S. Korean Ambassador to the Philippines.

Bottom right photo is EU Ambassador to the Philippines, Guy Ledoux.


Jeck talked about the need for "industrial policy" or government intervention towards certain social and economic engineering in society. I don't actually believe in such philosophy and I have debated with Jeck and some of her friends in facebook just a few weeks ago, about Cong. Erin Tanada's propose bill to ban and prohibit the importation of 2nd-hand cars, see here, Free Trade 19: Prohibiting 2nd-hand Imported Vehicles.


Next Jeck talked about their legislative proposal to create another big government bureaucracy, the Philippine Trade Representative Office (PTRO), because they observe that there are so many existing bureaucracies and committees in charge of FTAs, trade and WTO matters, that "they lack transparency and coordination". Rightly so. Once you create agreements or new programs, it will most likely require new secretariat offices that don't intend to wither away but stay forever whenever possible.

Dr. Robles talked about the EU-ASEAN FTA, the proposed EU-Philippines FTA, and the EU-Chile FTA.

Amb. Lee talked about the S. Korean experience in FTA with other countries and most recently, with the US. He noted that the WTO system is non-discriminatory, adheres to the Most Favored Nation (MFN) philosophy whereas an FTA is an exception to MFN, a country government grants special trade and business privileges to an FTA partner country but not to other countries. He noted that during the GATT period (1947-94), there were 91 FTA; under WTO period until last year (1995-2011), there were 206 FTAs. The reason for this big jump, he said, are two-fold: (a) the success stories of regional integration like the EU and the North American FTA (NAFTA), and (b) delays in multilateral trade liberalization.

I agree with the Ambassador's analysis. Country governments, even if they are inherently protectionist, would still want limited trade liberalization. They can do that via selected FTAs but not for all countries under the WTO. Hence, the rather quick pace in securing FTAs but foot-dragging in WTO global talks.

I wanted to ask questions but noted the limited time as we have to jump to panel 2, I didn't ask. There were two questions from the floor, one about the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) that was initiated by the US government to certain Pacific Rim countries, and the other about the EU integration.

Oh, my photos this morning, thanks to Narwin Espirity of FNF. I sat with Mike Alunan, a fellow UP School of Economics (UPSE) alumni whom I debate frequently in the UPSE alumni association yahoogroups. I asked during the 2nd panel moderated by the famous economist, retired UPSE faculty member (and my teacher in my undergrad thesis in the mid 80s), Winnie Monsod. Other photos below: Ms. Dorothy Salvador of FNF who acted as MC at the start of the program, Dr. Erlinda Medalla of PIDS who was supposed to give the synthesis at the end of the conference but I think she did not do her job as she did not summarize the main points given by each speaker; rather, I noticed that she talked about her interpretations of the points made by the speakers, Fail. Below right, a faculty member from PUP.


The two speakers in the second panel that was moderated by Prof. Winnie were John Simon, Chief of Internal Affairs of the Bureau of Customs (BOC), and Atty. Lynn Barcenas of the TA Trade Advisory Services (headed by another friend, Atty. Tony Abad).

Boy, John is a brave guy, know why? He talked about "hopes and steps of reducing/ridding corruption at the BOC" in an audience, well a prevailing and general public perception actually, who think that BOC is a bunch of crooks. I actually admire his audacity to speak about that topic, and he looked sincere. Atty. Barcenas talked about the need for a "Strong Competition Policy", leading to legislative bills in the House of Representatives and the Senate, creating a Fair Trade Commission (FTC) and penalizing anti-competitive behavior.

During the open forum, I asked a question for both speakers. To John, I said that around 8:45 this morning, I heard on radio, about DZBB, an interview with BOC Commissioner Ruffy Biazon (a former Congressman and LP official). Comm. Ruffy recognized that the problem of corruption at the BOC is deeply rooted and he said that if its possible, the agency should be abolished and create a new office to have a fresh start. Since that is not possible as it will require major revisions in the rules of the Civil Service Commission (CSC) or possibly the Constitution, is it possible to retire all employees and officials of the BOC under an early retirement program, and the BOC should start hiring new people?

John replied that it's not possible. Many officers at the BOC have deep links and connections with many legislators, Senators and Congressmen alike, other high government officials, past and present. But still, the BOC leadership has accepted President Aquino's challenge to them to really improve transparency and reduce corruption in the bureau.

I asked Atty. Barcenas that the main creator of monopolies is actually the government: jeepney and buses monopolies of certain routes by the LTFRB, tricycle monopolies of certain routes by the LGUs; some airline routes monopoly by the CAB, shipping routes monopoly by MARINA, utilities monopoly given by Congress via legislative franchising. Even the Pangilinan-Ayala duopoly in telecom (Smart/Sun and Globe, respectively) is secured by the Constitution because of the 60-40 restrictions on foreign equity ownership and telecom requires really huge capex, difficult to find other big local businesses to put up the huge fund. So assuming there is an FTC, how can a government agency remove monopolies that were created by other government agencies? Can an FTC overrule a legislative franchise monopoly given by Congress?

She recognized that there are limits to what a competition policy and a Competition Commission can do in such cases but the policy has to be pushed to address anti-competitive behavior in certain sectors.

The closing remarks was given by EU Amb. to the Philippines, Guy Ledoux. Simple message, EU is interested to have an FTA with the Philippines if the latter is ready, free trade is mainly about helping people.

Overall, I think the forum was highly successful because many issues were explored, they may not have been answered but at least they were brought up openly. The main constraints was time, lots of good speakers but it was just for a half day activity. The buffet lunch was really nice, Dusit Thani food.

Thanks again Jules and FNF staff, for another successful activity. Being a fan of liberalism (but not of the LP), I am always happy to participate in FNF activities in the Philippines and the region (through the EFN Asia). I learn a lot, that's why I keep blogging these things, lest I will forget them.
-------

See also:



Monday, July 09, 2007

Free Trade 4: FTA in APEC

The coming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Sydney, Australia this coming September, is looking to produce one good result: a possible free trade area (FTA) among the 21 member-countries. Of course, like most if not all FTA visions around the world, an FTA will become a reality in 10 or 20 years from date of signing, if not longer. Nonetheless, it's better than not putting that vision at all.

This is expected to be the "fallback" position after the failed talks on reviving the Doha talks between the big and representative countries of the poor world and the rich world, and should other efforts to revive it will fail again.

Usually, agreements and communique like this among member-countries of any alliance or grouping of countries, will be full of "provided that" and other conditions, before any real free trade area can become a reality.

If countries, or better yet, trade negotiators and politicians of those countries, are serious in having free trade, no agreement with other countries is necessary. They can always declare a unilateral trade liberalization, and that's it. Hong Kong has done it; Dubai, Chile, Singapore, other smaller economies are doing it.

This means that trade "activists" who are leaning towards free market should not play along with those groups and individuals who declare, "free trade yes, on condition that...." We better address ourselves to the general public the "net gains" and benefit from free trade.

Last year, I wrote this:

Pan-Asia free trade area

September 05, 2006


A news from http://euobserver.com/9/22250/?rk=1 has this story,


Japan set to kick-start pan-Asian free trade area" by Lisbeth Kirk
21.08.2006 - 09:57

Japan minister of economy Toshihiro Nikai is set to unveil plans for a pan-Asian free trade area of 3.1 billion people, half the world'spopulation, Malaysian news agency Bernama has reported ahead of the 38thASEAN Economic Ministers meeting starting today in Kuala Lumpur.

The free trade area would include ASEAN-countries Australia, China, SouthKorea, India, Japan and New Zealand and would be promoted by a Japanese fundof 100 million US dollars....

The 39-year-old ASEAN bloc agreed already in October 2003 to set up a singlemarket by 2020, modelled on the EU. But ministers meeting this week hope to speed up the plans and get it ready by 2015. "We need to muster political will to create the AEC [Asean EconomicCommunity] by 2015, instead of 2020," ASEAN secretary-general Ong Keng Yongsaid, according to AP.

China and ASEAN have already agreed to create no-tariff zone by 2010 intheir combined market of 2 billion people.... ASEAN is the America's fourth largest trading partner. ASEAN was established on 8 August 1967 in Bangkok by Indonesia, Malaysia,Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Burma andCambodia have joined later....


This is a good development. Better than no regional or continental free trade area at all. Of course, there will be free trade among countries as early astomorrow if governments will not hinder trade.

Almost all people around the world want bargains, they want more choices. And only free trade, of big supply of various goods and commoditiesfrom everywhere, can do that. The job of trade protectionism, sometimes called "fair trade", is to restrict trade, to limit supply of various goods and services available to consumers, to limit choices.

What the governments of Japan and other countries do in the above plan is phasing out trade protectionism little by little, and any form of trade liberalization should be done with their consent first. Hence, if theywant full free trade to be realized in 20 years, or 30 years, or 50years, that's what will happen. If governments are out of the picture of regulating trade, then free trade can happen anytime. Government's main job should be to regulate and control criminals and robbers, terrorists and killers. Regulating trade that makes life easier for people, especially the poor and jobless, by giving them access to cheaper food, cheaper clothes, cheaper farm inputs, and so on, is bad and wrong "role" of government.

About the Doha round, me thinks US' Trade Rep. Susan Schwab should better talk to Prof. Jagdish Bhagwati, a famous academic economist (Indian-American, i think) in the US, than moving around talking to the trade reps of China and other countries. Dr. Bhagwati argued in some recentpapers for a unilateral trade liberalization for the US and estimated the benefits for the US economy in terms of economic growth and job creation. Hence, Mr. Bhagwati has no problem with EU's high export subsidies, high agri subsidies, and so on. But Ms. Susan Schwab has lots of angsts on such export subsidies, the same with her counterparts in the EU and Australia and Japan and many other countries.

On another note, When globalization hits home...

Globalization will definitely hit homes, wherever they may be. A city can experience job losses when a big company packs up and puts up its office or manufacturing plant in another country, the same way that the same city created new jobs when that firm that left came a few years ago, or a new firm comes in.

Many governments in developing countries are allergic to the idea of de-bureaucratizing business regulations, so many of their people are working abroad if not migrating outright to pursue their ambition and entrepreneurial spirit.

And many governments of rich countries are also allergic to the idea of reducing business taxes and of leaving wage-setting to the employers and the market. So many of their companies are leaving and putting up manufacturing plants and offices in developing countries.

These plus many other aspects of capital and labor mobility are all part of globalization. There are losers, definitely, but there are also gainers. Overall, there is net gain, or the number of gainers are plentier than the losers. But if the initial losers will learn to adjust and be flexible, they become gainers later.

One reader asked, “how much longer should the losers wait?”

It depends. A chicken farmer who has been raising chicken all his adult life and suddenly shifts to producing other livestock or crops that experience price hikes while chicken prices are going down can benefit from globalization and make money quick.

While those losers who just wait for new or additional subsidies from the state, and continue producing goods and services that experience price declines due to competition from other producers abroad, can remain losers for the rest of their lives.
------

See also:
Free Trade 1: Estonia's Free Market, Globalization, May 09, 2006
Free Trade 2: Unilateral Trade Liberalization, May 17, 2006
Free Trade 3: Protectionism Perpetuate Poverty, September 05, 2006

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Free Trade 2: Unilateral Trade Liberalization

Below is my essay that was a runner up to Tech Central Station's essay writing contest on "Do free trade agreements help Asia become globally competitive?" Posted in TCS website,
http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=051506B

Actions Louder than Words
By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.
15 May 2006

Free trade agreements and their variants (economic cooperation agreements, regional and sub-regional trade agreements) are agreements among Presidents and Trade Ministers, agreements among governments; they are not agreements among people of those countries.

Funnily enough, countries or governments do not trade with each other; people do. And when people trade with each other, they normally do not set conditions, they do not make paper agreements. For instance, a Filipino software engineer does not require that a Thai garments producer should first buy his software program before he will buy the Thai's new lines of long sleeve shirts. People simply buy certain goods or services from everywhere because they want something of value for their money.

People are happy when they find bargains -- cheap clothes, shoes, computers, food, drinks, cell phones, -- whether or not those are available in their traditional, often local, shops. People are happy when they have plenty of choices of products, and sources to find various goods and services to fill their needs. In this sense most people advocate free trade whether they know it or not.

Some groups, however, have a double standard. They want all their consumption needs and production inputs to be liberalized and to be available at bargains, but want their own products and services to be protected from competition. It doesn't work that way. Still, governments the world over so often give in to protectionist aspirations. Such is done often in the name of "nationalism" and "helping the poor", but this view is myopic.

Enabling the poor to have access to high quality but affordable food, clothing, medicines and housing or construction materials (made available by markets and competition among producers and sellers) is, itself, "helping the poor". Expanding job creation and employment opportunities as companies expand or the number of small- and medium-sized entrepreneurs grows due to lower production inputs and costs; is also "helping the poor".

If people want protectionism, then everything should be protected, no exemptions. If local farmers want their rice or bananas or pineapples to be protected from foreign competition, then they should not expect to buy cheaper, free-trade-price fertilizers, chemicals, seeds, tractors and their spare parts, and other production inputs. They should not expect to buy cheaper clothes, toys, shoes and other consumer items for their families.

Why we don't have free trade

There are a number of reasons why government trade negotiators are prone to leaving trade restrictions that sabotage free trade.

One -- protectionist lobbyists, from local farmers or manufacturers, to plain anti-globalization NGOs and ideologues, are more organized than consumers. And government officials tend to listen to noisier, more organized groups, despite the fact that everyone on this planet is a consumer.

Two -- governments want to retain high tariffs to raise revenues that finance bloated bureaucracies in their countries. Corrupt leaders benefit from high tariffs, bureaucratic paper work and other non-tariff barriers. So often, of course, importers and traders will be forced to bribe them in exchange for letting in the restricted commodities.

Three -- the "net gains in trade" is still not realized and appreciated by majority of government officials and their trade negotiators. Take rice trade liberalization. When poor households including non-rice farmers (banana farmers, aquaculture farmers, and so on) save from buying cheaper imported rice than locally-produced rice, they do not burn their savings. They will use the money saved to increase their consumption of bananas and other fruits, vegetables and fish, poultry and livestock products, or have haircut more often. This price signal will alert some rice farmers to shift to other livelihood like vegetable farming, aquaculture, poultry and livestock farming, and so on. The job displacement is temporary but the economic efficiency of labor and resource re-allocation is more long-lasting.

What to do?

Since government trade negotiators have such limitations, the WTO should not be headed and negotiated by them, but by leaders and representatives of federations of traders (exporters and importers) in each country. Now, this is easier said than done since the WTO was formed by governments, not private traders and consumers.

If full free trade among many people in Asia and the rest of the world is not possible, there are other alternatives. One is for countries whose political leadership and trade negotiators understand the benefit of full free trade, to undertake unilateral trade liberalization.

Two, allow "dumping" of surplus products and services by other countries. Dumping is good, especially if the "dumped" products are still of good quality. As discussed above, economic and job dislocation of the adversely affected sectors is short-term, but millions of consumers who realized great savings from buying "dumped" clothes from abroad will have extra money to buy other goods and services which they would not buy otherwise if said dumped products are not available.

Three, allow export subsidies by rich country governments and do not make it a hindrance to more trade liberalization. If those governments will over-tax their citizens so that their exports can be sold at a lower price to poorer countries, so what? Buy their heavily-subsidized farm products, let the citizens of recipient countries enjoy cheaper imported food and dairy products.

While free trade agreements among Asian countries can help them be more globally competitive, very often such agreements are couched in various conditionalities. That actual free trade between and among partner countries are 10 or 20 years from their signing date. Hence, what will really help Asian countries be more economically dynamic and globally competitive, is actual free trade, preferably with no more paper free trade agreements.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is a runner up in the TCS Asia Essay Contest.
-------

Last year, I wrote this:

On Unilateral Trade Liberalization

November 16, 2005


In less than a month, the WTO Ministerial Meeting will be held in Hong Kong. This event happens in different countries every 2 years, but one single issue keeps cropping up in every meeting: trade protectionism especially in agriculture. Representatives of countries and groups or blocs of countries accuse other countries or blocs of trade protectionism and the accused fight back. The arguments and facts presented vary, but one thing is common: all of them (with the exception perhaps of 1 or 2 small, unilaterally-liberalizing country/countries) are protectionists. There are a number of reasons why government officials who represent their countries are prone to trade restrictions, to sabotaging the spirit of free trade, whether in large or small scale.

One, protectionist lobbyists, whether local farmers, fisherfolks and manufacturers, or plain anti-globalization NGOs and ideologues, are more organized than consumers. And government officials tend to listen to the more organized, more noisy groups, despite the fact that everyone in this planet is a consumer.

Two, government officials and negotiators are under orders by their country Presidents or Prime Ministers to retain high tariffs in a number of tradeable goods for import and export tax purposes, to raise revenues, to finance the bloated bureaucracies in almost all countries. Of course, corrupt leaders benefit from high tariffs and other non-tariff barriers: importers and traders will be forced to bribe them in exchange for letting in the restricted commodities, then they become rich and powerful even if they are lazy.

Three, the "net gains in trade" outcome is still not realized and appreciated by majority of government officials and their trade negotiators. Many of them think they serve their citizens a good service by restricting trade, especially in agriculture. When poor households, jobless people, small fisherfolks, ordinary employees in the services and industrial sectors, even the non-rice farmers (banana farmers, mango farmers, aquaculture farmers, etc.), can save from buying cheaper imported rice than locally-produced rice, this is not the end of the world for the local rice farmers. Consumers will not burn the money they save from buying cheaper imported rice; they will use the money to increase their consumption of bananas and other fruits, or vegetables and fish, or poultry and livestock products, or have haircut more often. This price signal will alert some rice farmers to shift to other sub-industries like vegetable farming, aquaculture farming, poultry and livestock farming, and so on. The job displacement is temporary but the economic efficiency of labor and resource re-allocation is more long-lasting.

Since government officials have such limitations, then the WTO should not be headed and negotiated by them, but by leaders and representatives of federations of traders (exporters and importers) in each country. Now, this is easier said than done since the WTO was formed by governments, not private traders. So what traders and ordinary consumers can do is only to launch counter-lobbies to the protectionists and the anti-globalists.

I'm not hopeful that much trade liberalization will happen soon on a global scale. Liberalization will, and does happen, more via bilateral and regional cooperation. But a government with open-minded officials and trade negotiators can undertake unilateral trade liberalization. If EU governments give huge subsidies to their farmers so that the latter can sell their farm products abroad at a lower price, so what? Buy their heavily-subsidized farm products, let the citizens of your country enjoy cheaper imported food and dairy products. As discussed above, your citizens will not burn the money they save from buying cheaper imported products, they will use the money to buy other goods and services, from better construction materials for their houses to having more haircuts or more parties.
-------

See also:  Free Trade 1: Estonia's Free Market, Globalization, May 09, 2006