Showing posts with label free trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label free trade. Show all posts

Sunday, July 08, 2018

BWorld 222, Austrian thinkers and the G7 zero tariff challenge

* This is my column in BusinessWorld last June 14, 2018.


“To act on the belief that we possess the knowledge and the power which enable us to shape the processes of society entirely to our liking, knowledge which in fact we do not possess, is likely to make us do much harm.”

— Friedrich Hayek,
“The Pretence of Knowledge,” Nobel Prize lecture, Dec. 11, 1974.

This piece of advice from a famous classical liberal Austrian thinker should be a constant reminder to central planning-thinking leaders and officials in governments around the world, especially in communist and socialist societies like China, North Korea, Vietnam, Venezuela, and Cuba. It should also apply to global central planning-prone agencies like the UN and multilaterals.

Another famous Austrian thinker that advocated freeing individuals and private enterprises from too much regulations, taxation, and state nannyism is Ludwig von Mises.

In his book The Anti-capitalistic Mentality (1956), he extolled the value of competition and endless innovation in a free market economy:

“The characteristic feature of modern capitalism is mass production of goods destined for consumption by the masses. The result is a tendency towards a continuous improvement in the average standard of living… the market of a capitalistic society, the common man is the sovereign consumer whose buying or abstention from buying ultimately determines what should be produced and in what quantity and quality… Wealth can be acquired only by serving the consumers. The capitalists lose their funds as soon as they fail to invest them in those lines in which they satisfy best the demands of the public.”

The dramatic expansion of goods and services worldwide has resulted in substantial increases in global trade and investments. Consumers are the main beneficiaries of increased trade as they get access to more products and services from more suppliers and countries at competing prices.

Some governments, however, are less friendly to their own citizens and trade partners abroad by erecting various forms of restrictions, implicit and explicit, through high tariff and/or non-tariff barriers and measures (NTBs, NTMs) to products and services that enter their soil.

The term “trade war” has become famous recently because of the sentiments of US President Donald Trump to match the high tariff imposed by its G7 partners to some of its exports. He cited Canada’s 270% tariff on US dairy exports, the 10% tariff by the European Union on American car exports, the 25% China tariff for the same while US tariff for imported cars from EU, Japan, China, etc. is only 2.5%.

So during the G7 Summit in Canada last week, instead of having equalized high tariff (EHT) among the members (aka “trade war”), Trump proposed a second option – equalized zero tariff (EZT), zero subsidy.

Between these two options, EZT is the easier thing to do, for two reasons.

One, four G7 members are also EU members and they have zero tariff already among them in the EU. So they only need to extend the zero tariff to the three other G7 members, Japan, Canada and US.

Two, existing tariff rates are generally low and hence, closer to zero than 10%. Member-countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) enjoy the most favored nation (MFN) privilege, meaning what one country imposes as tariffs on its favorite trade partner should also apply to all other members. Standard deviation of tariff rate (SDTR) means the extent of variation in tariffs, so the higher the SDTR, the more protectionist an economy is for certain products or commodities.


So for the G7, EZT is easier to implement and more preferable than EHT. It is China that is the most protectionist and hence, will have great difficulty moving towards EZT.

The works of Hayek, Mises, and other classical liberal thinkers like Adam Smith, David Ricardo, John Locke, and John Stuart Mill, the application of their thoughts to current issues like free trade vs protectionism, will be tackled in a lecture by the Students for Liberty Philippines (SFL) this coming June 16, Saturday in Quezon City.

Young minds are more receptive to classical liberal and free trade philosophy because they have experienced first hand the beauty of more consumer freedom, more mobility across countries, and more civil society action to social problems.
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Friday, June 15, 2018

BWorld 220, Trade imbalances, protectionism and rhetoric

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last June 7, 2018. 


In a free trade, an effectual combination cannot be established but by the unanimous consent of every single trader, and it cannot last longer than every single trader continues of the same mind.

— Adam Smith
The Wealth Of Nations (1776), Book IV Chapter VIII.

Free trade should mean that people are free to trade and do not need to secure permits to trade from governments. The expansion of governments — local, national, and multilaterals — has also resulted in the expansion of preconditions and negotiations before meaningful trade can be allowed.

This is what Adam Smith referred to in the quote above. It is the collective action of traders and not the coercive regulation of governments that free trade and real competition is established.

In recent months, “trade war” has become a common term used in international media and blame is put on the US President for stoking protectionism and implying that US trade partners that enjoy and experience huge trade surpluses for many years are not practicing protectionism.

Trade numbers will greatly help us to clarify things.

I got monthly data of merchandise trade, exports and imports, from the World Trade Organization (WTO). After getting the sum of trade balance, January to June then July to December of 2016 and 2017 and the first three months of 2018, I got the monthly average and daily average. I chose countries with relatively large value of trade surplus or deficit (in parenthesis) plus selected ASEAN countries like the Philippines. The numbers show some interesting patterns (see table).


Here are the notable facts from these numbers.

One, the US continues to experience more than $2 billion a day in trade deficit, since many years ago until today. The second half of 2017 showed a big deficit, posting an average of $2.5 billion a day. US President Trump’s threats of imposing higher tariffs on certain imports became louder in early 2018, hoping to reduce the trade deficit.

Two, China has been enjoying a trade surplus of up to $1.5 billion a day in the second half of 2016, then Trump’s higher tariff in early 2018 for some of its exports has significantly reduced the imbalance but China still enjoys a trade surplus overall.

Three, Germany has the second biggest trade surplus after China with about $0.8 billion a day. The recent higher US tariffs for steel and aluminum were mainly directed at Germany and other European exporters.

It would seem that the US is not exactly “becoming protectionist” as most media reports and opinions claim. People got used to seeing the US as having perennial big trade deficit for many years and when Trump tries to correct this, those people get angry.

Ultimately we should assert free trade and people’s freedom to trade, not governments and bureaucrats’ freedom to restrict trade. There are net gains in trade (gains are larger than pains) while there is net diswelfare in protectionism.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is President of Minimal Government Thinkers, a member-institute of Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia.
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Sunday, June 10, 2018

Free Trade 66, Trump's proposal of zero tariff in G7

This is good. Zero tariff, keep non-tariff barriers/measures to the minimum. EU, Japan, Canada, China, dare -- game?


“We should at least consider no tariffs, no barriers — scrapping all of it,” Trump said, according to officials who were listening and taking notes.

Trump floated the idea — which was received as somewhat rhetorical — as the meeting was breaking up and was quickly challenged by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who asked, “What about subsidies?”

"No tariffs, no barriers, that's the way it should be — and no subsidies," the president said at a press conference, before taking questions.

"We don't want to pay anything — why should we pay?" Trump said. "Ultimately, that's what you want. You want a tariff free, no barriers and you want no subsidies."

“No tariffs, no barriers, that’s the way it should be, and no subsidies,” Trump said during a 30-minute press conference on the sidelines of the meeting in La Malbaie, Quebec. "I did suggest it and people were -- I guess they’re going to go back to the drawing board and check it out."

“No tariffs, no barriers — that’s the way it should be. And no subsidies,” Mr Trump said at a brief press conference before departing from the G7 summit at the Québec resort town of La Malbaie. “We’re like the piggy bank that everybody’s robbing, it’s got to end.”

"Also on Friday, Trump floated the idea of ending all tariffs and trade barriers between the US and its allies - a pitch that wasn't exactly expected, according to Politico. Trump offered the proposal at the end of a "contentious" meeting on trade disputes. Most G-7 members remain furious with Trump over his decision to impose tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, and his threats to impose more trade restrictions. Merkel responded positively to Trump's suggestion, saying she would consider it."


Other reports:




Tweets by @realDonaldTrump, June 8:

Please tell Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron that they are charging the U.S. massive tariffs and create non-monetary barriers. The EU trade surplus with the U.S. is $151 Billion, and Canada keeps our farmers and others out. Look forward to seeing them tomorrow.

Prime Minister Trudeau is being so indignant, bringing up the relationship that the U.S. and Canada had over the many years and all sorts of other things...but he doesn’t bring up the fact that they charge us up to 300% on dairy — hurting our Farmers, killing our Agriculture!

Why isn’t the European Union and Canada informing the public that for years they have used massive Trade Tariffs and non-monetary Trade Barriers against the U.S. Totally unfair to our farmers, workers & companies. Take down your tariffs & barriers or we will more than match you!

Tweets by @realDonaldTrump, June 10:

Just left the @G7 Summit in beautiful Canada. Great meetings and relationships with the six Country Leaders especially since they know I cannot allow them to apply large Tariffs and strong barriers to...

...U.S.A. Trade. They fully understand where I am coming from. After many decades, fair and reciprocal Trade will happen!

The United States will not allow other countries to impose massive Tariffs and Trade Barriers on its farmers, workers and companies. While sending their product into our country tax free. We have put up with Trade Abuse for many decades — and that is long enough.

Based on Justin’s false statements at his news conference, and the fact that Canada is charging massive Tariffs to our U.S. farmers, workers and companies, I have instructed our U.S. Reps not to endorse the Communique as we look at Tariffs on automobiles flooding the U.S. Market!

PM Justin Trudeau of Canada acted so meek and mild during our @G7 meetings only to give a news conference after I left saying that, “US Tariffs were kind of insulting” and he “will not be pushed around.” Very dishonest & weak. Our Tariffs are in response to his of 270% on dairy!

Zero tariff is good, it is happening. EU countries have zero tariff among themselves; ASEAN countries have zero tariff among themselves too; other regional blocs in Asia, S. America, Africa, Europe (like EFTA) do it among themselves; also various bilateral FTAs. However they don't do it with countries outside their regional blocs and bilateral FTAs, they practice protectionism. Except HK which has zero tariff for all countries except for a few regulated products (guns, bombs, chemical/poisonous substances,...)

The anti-trumpistas just hate any policy he takes. If he slaps high tariffs to trade partners, they are angry. If he suggests zero tariff, they are still angry. Seems they are more confused, more double-talkers than the man they hate.
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Friday, June 01, 2018

EFN Asia 67, Program of Conf 2006, KL

I rediscovered this while cleaning my inbox of old emails. I remember very well that conference because (a) it was my first time to go to Malaysia, (b) a day before there was a one-day forum by Atlas also on trade and I was one of the presenters, and (c) the subject of unilateral liberalization was articulated by several speakers like Aco Patunru (Indonesia) and Barun Mitra (India).

Here's the program 12 years ago.
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Economic Freedom Network Asia Conference 2006

Preferential Trade Agreements
Local solutions for global free trade?

12th - 13th September 2006
Corus Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Welcoming address

Mohamed Ariff
Executive Director, Malaysian Institute of Economic Research
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Wolf-Dieter Zumpfort 
Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors
Friedrich Naumann Foundation
Berlin, Germany

Mark Mullins
Executive Director, Fraser Institute
Vancouver, Canada

Opening address

YBhg Tan Sri Dato’ Mohd Sheriff Mohd Kassim
Chairman, Board of Trustees
Malaysian Institute of Economic Research
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Introduction of Conference procedure
Mohit Satyanand
Moderator

Session 1: Models of Preferential Trade Agreements

“The European Union’s Strategies and Priorities”

Thierry Rommel
Ambassador and Head of Delegation
Delegation of the European Commission to Malaysia
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

“US Strategies and Priorities”
Colin Helmer
Counselor of Economic Affairs
Embassy of the United States of America
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

“International Models of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements”

Christopher Dent
Senior Lecturer
Department of East Asian Studies, University of Leeds
Leeds, United Kingdom

Session 2: Impacts of Preferential Trade Agreements in Asia

“The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Human Development in Asia”

Swarnim Wagle
Programme Specialist, UNDP Regional Centre
Colombo, Sri Lanka

“Malaysia and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements”

Mohamed Ariff
Executive Director, Malaysian Institute of Economic Research
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Session 3: Economic Freedom Indicators

“Indicators for Free Trade in Asia. The Economic Freedom of the World Index”

Robert Lawson
Professor, Capital University
Columbus, Ohio, USA.

“Chinese Marketisation Index”

Wang Xiaolu
Deputy Director, National Economic Research Institute
Beijing, China

“Capital Freedom Index”

Feng Xingyuan
Cathay Institute of Public Affairs
Beijing, China

“Chinese Public Governance Indicator”

Mao Yushi
Unirule Institute of Economics
Beijing, China

Session 4: Regional Trade Agreements in Asia

Panel Discussion on the South Asian Free Trade Agreement

Ugen Tschup Dorji
President, SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Bhutan

Rajesh Mehta
Senior Fellow, Research and Information System for Developing Countries
New Delhi, India

Dushni Weerakoon
Deputy Director, Institute of Policy Studies
Colombo, Sri Lanka

Panel Discussion on East Asia Free Trade Area

Kriengsak Chareonwongsak
Member of Parliament and Executive Board Member, Democrat Party
Bangkok, Thailand

Arianto Patunru
Deputy Director, Institute for Economic and Social Research, University of Indonesia
Jakarta, Indonesia

Young-Han Kim
Professor, Sungkyunkwan University
Seoul, Korea

Session 5: International Perspectives on Regional Trade Blocs

Ricardo Lopez Murphy
Chairman, Cívico-Republicana Foundation
Buenos Aires, Argentina

Andrej Illarionov (requested)
Director, Institute of Economic Analysis
Moscow, Russian Federation
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Friday, January 19, 2018

BWorld 180, Has East Asia liberalized its trade enough?

* This is my column in BusinessWorld last January 11.


Under a system of perfectly free commerce, each country naturally devotes its capital and labour to such employments as are most beneficial to each. By rewarding ingenuity… it distributes labour most effectively and most economically: while, by increasing the general mass of productions, it diffuses general benefit, and binds together by one common tie of interest and intercourse, the universal society of nations throughout the civilized world.

— David Ricardo, Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (1817)

Classical British philosophers and political economists were the pioneer thinkers in articulating the net benefits and advantages of free trade over autarky and protectionism. These include David Ricardo, Adam Smith (“A nation may import to a greater value than it exports for half a century… and yet its real wealth, the exchangeable value of the annual produce of its lands and labor, may, during the same period, have been increasing in a much greater proportion,”) and David Hume (“the increase of riches and commerce in any one nation, instead of hurting, commonly promotes the riches and commerce of all its neighbors.”)

Perhaps it is no coincidence that former British protectorates and colonies in Asia are among the most rabid free traders in the world such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and Brunei.

Among the important indicators of how free an economy to global trade and commerce are (a) the mean and average tariff rates, and (b) standard deviation of tariff rates, which show how wide the variations among tariffs are that indicate high protectionism of certain sectors compared to other sectors.

Hong Kong, Singapore, and Brunei have impressive numbers: zero or very low tariff rates and standard deviation is also zero or very low. This means that there is little or no favoritism and protectionism of certain sectors. As a result, consumers and local producers are given the greatest freedom to choose various products and commodities available from around the world to come into their shores.

Japan, Malaysia, and Taiwan have low tariffs but their standard deviations are in double digits. For their part, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Indonesia have declining tariffs and single-digit variations, which are good.

Thailand, Vietnam, and South Korea seem to have not liberalized fast enough because of their relatively high mean tariffs and high tariff variations (see table).


David Ricardo has articulated the classical definition and theory of “comparative advantage.”

This theory has a beautiful application for developing economies like the Philippines to avoid concentrating their resources — human, financial, and land, among others — on few goals like food “self-sufficiency” when they can diversify their resources and earn higher income from manufacturing, tourism, and other sectors.

These economies can then use surplus and savings to purchase food and other commodities from abroad, especially from neighbors that have better natural endowment in bigger food production.

From the numbers above, there is a mixture of results in trade liberalization by East Asian economies. Overall tariff rates have declined through time but tariff variations have also increased in some countries and economies.

We go back to choosing three pathways to trade liberalization: multilateral like World Trade Organization (WTO), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations; bilateral like Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA); or unilateral like what Hong Kong, Singapore, and Brunei have done.

The best outcome would be via global and multilateral liberalization under the WTO but this is also the most difficult, most complicated, and most bureaucratic.

After 22 years (1995-2017) of regular global negotiations, there were no major achievements except the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) which needs legislative ratification by all signatory countries.

Unilateral liberalization is the simplest and fastest route to take. Just consider the interests of local consumers and producers in general — to have the widest choices possible in terms of prices and product quality. More choices means more freedom, more savings and by extension, higher incomes.


Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is President of Minimal Government Thinkers, a member-institute of Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia.
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See also:
BWorld 175, Trends in global and Philippine trade, January 05, 2018

Friday, January 05, 2018

BWorld 175, Trends in global and Philippine trade

* This is my column in BusinessWorld last December 27.


Global merchandise trade has slowed down recently despite low oil prices and less political and economic instability. After recovering from the 2009-2010 global financial turmoil, merchandise exports reached $18.3 trillion in 2011, $19 trillion in 2014, declined to $16.5 trillion in 2015, and fell further to $16 trillion in 2016.

The top 5 exporters in merchandise goods in 2015-2016 were China, USA, Germany, Japan, and Netherlands. Germany and Netherlands have the advantage of easier trade because they both are located in one continental land area and hence, can export by land, unlike China, US, and Japan which have to export largely by water.

Eleven (11) Asian economies, five of them from the ASEAN, belong to the top 30 biggest merchandise exporters in the world in 2015-2016. The Philippines remained in ranks 45th-46th.

In commercial services, global exports have slightly increased from $4.76 trillion in 2015 to $4.81 trillion in 2016. The top 5 exporters in were US, UK, Germany, France, and China. Such services include revenues from tourism and remittances of nationals working abroad.


Twelve (12) Asian economies, five of them including the Philippines from the ASEAN, belong to the top 40 biggest services exporters in the world in 2015-2016.

In particular, the Philippines’ merchandise exports have recovered with higher growth this year. Cumulative figures for January-October period are: $49.05 billion in 2015, $47.55 billion in 2016, and $53.11 billion in 2017, or 11.7% growth in 2017 over the previous year.

Top 5 merchandise export markets of the Philippines last year and this year are Japan, Hong Kong, US, China, and Singapore. The EU as a bloc though is the Philippines 2nd biggest market — it imported $5.86 trillion in 2016 and $7.83 trillion in 2017, January-October period.

Almost all export markets have increased their purchase from the Philippines in 2017 except Japan and Singapore, but the export levels to these two countries remain high.

Preliminary figures for 2017 point to a recovery and higher levels in 2017 compared to 2016, Philippine figures provide the clue. And not only in exports but also in imports.

The statement “If America (or Europe) turns protectionist, Asia loses” is wrong. Whoever starts serious protectionism is the loser. Free trade creates good will with other countries while expanding the choices and options for local consumers and manufacturers, which expand their productive capacity.

Asia will remain as a very important player in global trade of goods and services, also in investments, for two important reasons. One, growth momentum remains high, many economies growing 5% or more (GDP growth) a year. Two, huge and generally young population especially in India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam, comprising nearly 1.8 billion people with an average age of only 24-25 years old which is one-half of the average age of Japan and many developed countries in Europe.

Freer trade philosophy and policy will resurface in the coming years. Trade is the biggest instrument to prevent wars among countries. As the famous French economist and writer Frederic Bastiat once wrote, “If goods cannot cross borders, soldiers will.”
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Monday, November 27, 2017

BWorld 167, Multilateral, bilateral, or unilateral liberalization

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last November 21, 2017.


During the ASEAN Summit + Related Summits in Manila, trade and the further deepening of economic integration was among the major topics. There were new initiatives as well as updates to existing negotiations at multilateral and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs).

Here are some of those old and new FTAs as reported in BusinessWorld from Nov. 13-16:

1. “ASEAN, HK sign free trade, investment deals” — the ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA (AHKFTA) and ASEAN-Hong Kong Investment Agreement (AHKIA).

2. “Do you know your TPPs from your RCEPs, NAFTAs and OBORs?” — about the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), One Belt One Road initiative (OBOR), North America FTA (NAFTA).

3. “ASEAN claims ‘significant progress’ on RCEP” — mentioned the ASEAN Seamless Trade Facilitation Indicators (ASTFI), ASEAN Inclusive Business Framework (AIBF), others.

4. “US agrees to explore FTA with Philippines” — to be called the US-Philippines Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA).

Free trade is good, regardless of what those against it would say because it always results in “net gains.”

There are always gains/winners and pains/losers the same way that there are gains and pains under protectionism. When people withdraw their savings for several months in exchange for a new car or dream vacation, they derive net gains from trade of savings vs. vacation.

ASEAN is known for its fast pace of tariff liberalization towards zero compared to many other economic blocs in the world. That’s the good news.

The bad news is the big increase in non-tariff barriers (NTBs) or non-tariff measures (NTMs). These are restrictions and barriers other than tariffs and taxes that make imports or exports of products more difficult, more complicated and hence, more costly (see table).



The authors also noted that “As the average tariff rates of ASEAN countries decreased from 8.9% in 2000 to 4.5% in 2015, the number of NTMs had increased from 1,634 measures to 5,975 measures over the same period. The increase of NTMs was notable not only in ASEAN but also around the world, particularly, between 2008 and 2011.”

Among ASEAN member-states, Thailand has the highest number of NTMs at 1,630, 2nd was the Philippines with 854, 3rd was Malaysia with 713, 4th was Indonesia with 638, 5th was Singapore with 529, 6th Brunei with 516, 7th Vietnam with 379, 8th Laos with 301, 9th Cambodia with 243, and 10th was Myanmar with only 172.

The most common NTMs in Thailand and Myanmar was sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures while for the other eight ASEAN countries, technical barriers to trade (TBT) was most common.

So which way to achieve regional if not global free trade: (a) Multilateral via World Trade Organization (WTO), APEC, TPP, RCEP, AEC, others ; or (b) bilateral like US-Philippines TIFA, Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA)?

The advantage of multilateral liberalization is that all economies in the world or at least in the region are committed to bring down their tariffs and NTMs. The disadvantage is that under WTO, real liberalization remains far off even after 22 years (1995 to present) of numerous negotiations.

The setback of regional FTAs is that while member-countries can have near-zero tariff and reduced NTMs, other countries outside the FTA are slapped with high tariffs and/or multiple NTMs.

The advantage of bilateral liberalization is that differences and disputes can be ironed out easier and faster so that FTA can materialize soon. The disadvantage is that a country will need to dispatch plenty of trade negotiation teams to deal with many countries and hence, it can be costly and messy.

A third way is via unilateral liberalization.

Just bring down the tariffs and NTMs, open up the borders with little or no conditions. The main advantage of this move is that it can be done quickly with very little trade negotiation teams and hence, non-costly to taxpayers. However, the disadvantage is that it is “too scary, too radical” for many people as it might result in massive labor displacements.

There are a few countries that boldly took unilateral liberalization and so far, almost all of them have attained economic prosperity in just a few decades such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai/UAE, Chile.

Unilateral liberalization in goods has been done by the ASEAN as a bloc. The challenge is unilateral liberalization in services.

With continued modernization in the information and communications technology worldwide, it is much easier, not harder, to liberalize trade in services.

Asian economies, the Philippines in particular, should consider a unilateral liberalization policy. This would involve fewer trade bureaucracies, taxes and subsidies, and more competition from more suppliers and manufacturers from countries around the world. Local consumers will benefit from more choices and more options while shelling out less taxes and fees.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is President of Minimal Government Thinkers, a member-institute of Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia.
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See also: 
BWorld  91, Free trade means faster growth in manufacturing, November 14, 2016 
BWorld 137, ASEAN trade expansion and RCEP, June 20, 2017
BWorld 164, PES conference amidst reduced risk and uncertainty, November 21, 2017 

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Lion Rock 22, Hong Kong's early policies on free trade, zero income tax

I like this article by a friend since 2004, Andrew Pak Man Shuen, Director and Co-Founder of the Lion Rock Institute in Hong Kong. I thought it was Sir John Cowperthwaite who was the first engineer of HK free trade policy. Reposting, did not include the first four paragraphs. Photo I got from wiki.
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13/09/2017
THE CONSERVATIVE | June 2017 | Issue 4 | Andrew Pak Man Shuen

… Sir Henry Pottinger was our first colonial governor. After the Opium War, he turned Hong Kong into an outpost of the British Empire so distant that Victorian parents would threaten to send unruly children there as a punishment.

He laid out the three basic governing tenets of Hong Kong. The first was that there must be no direct taxes: government revenue would come from land leases, licensing fees etc. The second was to “respect local customs”. Finally, Hong Kong would allow free trade, including with the enemies of the British Empire.

From the perspective of the 21st century, it is easy to conclude that Potting must have been a liberal. No direct taxes. Multiculturalism. Free trade. And all for a city built on commerce.

But, before celebrating, we must bear in mind that Pottinger was a hard-nosed colonialist. He and his colleagues had no qualms about butchering the “yellow peril” as they barrelled into Qing-dynasty China.

So why those three seemingly enlightened tenets? Remember that this was before the telegraph and the Suez Canal. Britain was not all that keen to hold a colony that was not only far away but surrounded by hostile powers. London sent the message to Potting that he would not be receiving much in the way of manpower or budget.

Hence it was out of realpolitik that Potting embraced those principles. First, the collection of direct taxes is extremely labour-intensive; without them, he could manage with a much smaller civil service. Second, although the Chinese of that era engaged in polygamy, female pedal mutilation and (perhaps most objectionable to the British) eating dogs, Pottinger knew that he was in no position to engage in mass behaviour-modification. If everything the Chinese were doing was allowed to stay legal, the police force could remain small and still be effective in the protection of property rights.

The decision to make Hong Kong a true free port where even the enemies of the British Empire could trade was a master-stroke. Pottinger understood that the colony would be hard to defend with military force.

To sail from Plymouth, the home port of the South China Sea fleet, round the Cape of Good Hope, across the Indian Ocean, through the Malacca Straits and then up the South China Sea was a logistical nightmare even in peacetime.

However, Pottinger also knew that, as Hong Kong possessed no natural resources to be pillaged, together with the fact that attacking any part of the British Empire would incur a cost for the invader, any assault must be part of a grander strategy for an invader in search of a prize other than this colonial outpost. If the would-be invader discovered that they could purchase whatever they coveted from Hong Kong, it was not worth the effort.

This explains what happened during the Korean War. The British colonial administration must have known about the smuggling activities of Henry Fok, who was transporting massive resources to Communist China. The latter had been placed by the United Nations under a total trade embargo. This meant that free-trade colony under British control was a lifeline for Mao, and far more useful than a Chinese-ruled Hong Kong.

As a result, Hong Kong remained British until 1997 – that is, 50 years longer than India. Its sovereignty was preserved because the power most likely to invade was protecting it. This makes Pottinger look like a geopolitical genius.

Of course, Hong Kong’s sovereignty did change hands once before 1997. In 1941, Japan invaded as it simultaneously rained bombs on Pearl Harbour, and we surrendered in three weeks. If Pottinger’s adoption of free trade was such a master-stroke, how come Hong Kong fell to the Imperial Japanese?

Next to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, which commemorates the war dead, there is a museum that is basically an attempt by the Japanese to explain what they did. One word is crucial: oil.

According to Pottinger’s theory, if the Japanese could have bought oil through Hong Kong, the Pacific War with the Allied forces might have been averted. Of course, this also means that Hitler would have never declared war on America. And that was not what Churchill wanted. That raises the question of why Hong Kong uncharacteristically participated in the oil embargo and suffered invasion – but we can leave that discussion for another day.

To conclude, the logic of “when goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will” that underpinned the Treaty of Rome was on full display in Hong Kong. Peace and sovereignty flow from the fountain of authentic free trade, even in the absence of soldiers and Ian Fleming’s secret agents. And, of course, there is another consequence of authentic free trade, which is massive and widely shared prosperity. That is also on full display in Hong Kong.
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See also: 
Lion Rock 19, Not enough capitalism in Hong Kong, May 12, 2016 

Lion Rock 20, Hong Kong's labor welfarism and rising unemployment, July 08, 2016 

Lion Rock 21, Dangers of Universal basic income (UBI) philosophy, August 11, 2017 
Hong Kong and John Cowperthwaite, Part 2, October 09, 2017

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

EFN Asia 65, EFN panel at Jeju Forum 2017

The Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia participated once more at the annual Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity, a big international conference held at Jeju Island, S. Korea. I am reposting this report submitted to the organizers within an hour after the panel discussion. Originally posted at the EFN website.

I add two photos here, taken from EFN's fb page. From left: Wan, John, Razeen, Young-Han.

This is 3,200+ words, 7 pages, enjoy.
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Session Outline

Name of Session: Asia’s Contribution to the Global Open Market
Session Organizer: Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom
Date: 1 June 2017, 14.50-16.20
Moderator: Dr. John Delury, Associate Professor, Graduate School of International Studies,
Yonsei University

Welcoming Remarks: Dr. Lars-André Richter, Head
Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom Korea Office

Discussant(s)
Dr. Razeen Sally, Associate Professor,
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
Wan Saiful Wan Jan, Chief Executive
Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs, Malaysia
Dr. Kim Young-Han, Professor,
Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University

Summary of Presenters & Discussants’ Remarks

Dr. Lars-Andre Richter

Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF) is a German non-profit organization, founded in 1958 post-war West Germany. The main goal at the time was to help re-establish democracy in West Germany. Shortly after, FNF opened offices abroad, including in Tunisia, India and Indonesia. The office in Korea was opened in 1987. We promote liberty in Korea through a variety of programs including democracy building, projects with market economy, human rights, rule of law and also the re-unification issue, bringing in the unique German experience of re-unification. In fact, FNF has projects in both Koreas. The North Korea program started in 2004, focusing on economic policy. The session today at the Jeju Forum is hosted by both FNF and Economic Freedom Network Asia (EFN Asia), FNF support’s network of liberal minded think tanks and individuals.

Dr. Kim Young-Han
Threat of the Protectionism by the US Trump Presidency

- Why Protectionism by the Billionaire US President?
Trump thinks that the current format of ‘the Global Open Market System’is unbearable and unsustainable for the US blue collar workers. Are US blue collar workers simply irrational? No, they are absolutely rational.

- The US blue collar workers know that there is not and will not be an effective trade adjustment assistance system in the US. Winners get everything with no room for losers in global open market according to the US experiences. (The same with the Brexit case.)

- How much of a threat caused by the Trumpian Protectionism?
Very threatening and disastrous. If Trumpian Protectionism is spilled over to major trading countries, the global trade war is the next stage, just like the experience before the two World War. The current one-sided protective measures of the US are highly likely to provoke retaliatory measures from trading partners.

- Is Trumpian Protectionism Sustainable?
Not really, since it’s self-defeating. Why? The source of gains from free trade: Efficiency Gains via Reallocation of economic resource from inefficient sectors to efficient sectors. In the US, without the effective trade adjustment assistance mechanism, resources in the inefficient sectors became laid-off instead of being reallocated. What Trump tries to do is to keep inefficient sectors protected as inefficient, which is self-defeating and unsustainable. He suspects Trump will realize this after 3-4 years.

- Can other powers fill in the US role?
The Share in the Global Trade: EU takes roughly 40% of the world trade, followed by Asia which takes 33%, and North America (17%). If the US goes back to protective regime, it is bad, while the other players can keep the remaining 83% under free trade regime. The EU might play a more meaningful role in leading the global free trade regime and also Asian powers like China. But he does not think so.

- The requirements for the leadership the global free trade regime: Leader has to prepare itself and operate on a rule-based trade policy and National Treatment for all players (treat all players as domestic players). The EU is more prepared, but not China. Furthermore, Big Players with market power are likely to resort to bilateral arrangements based on one-sided bargaining power. Therefore, relying on a multilateral platform is better than relying on a big guy leading power. Rebuilding the Multilateral Free Trade Regime via WTO is the solution.

The Role of Asia in Rebuilding the Global Free Trade Regime

- Datawise, Asia takes significant market power, i.e. 33% of the global trade. Historically speaking, all Asian countries’ economies, such as Japan and South Korea, have emerged via the global free trade regime with no regret against the multilateral free trade regime, WTO. A multilateral free trade regime as WTO is welfare dominant to a single country leadership (by whether the US or China). Asia has kept the spirit of multilateral or plurilateral free trade regime via ASEAN and ASEAN+3, and even ASEAN +6. Asian economy with her complexity in terms of diverse stages of economic development and asymmetry of economic size and power works as a miniature of the global economy with gradual and sustainable unit of economic integration.

- Condition for “Sustainable Global Open Market System”

i) Effective Trade Adjustment Assistance Mechanism: Losers (i.e., workers in the importing competing sectors with comparative disadvantages) should be reallocated to Winners’ sectors (jobs in the export sectors with comparative advantages) via Effective Trade Adjustment Assistance Mechanism.

ii) Multilateral Free Trade Regime with strong surveillance and reputation building mechanism with respect to the Big Guys with market power.

Dr. Razeen Sally

He has three main points to make. First, where we are in the global economy, particularly on trade. Second is on protectionist threat. Third is on what can be done in and by Asia to keep the market open.

- Where are we in the global economy?
Economic globalization has not been reversed, since the global financial crisis, but it has stalled. There has been a global growth slowdown. Trade to GDP worldwide has not increased, since about 2006. Foreign direct investment flow has decreased, since the crisis Cross-border flow of finance has Decreased considerably, as expect from the global financial crisis.

- But particularly on trade, something unusual is going on. Since the beginning of 19th century until 2008, world trade grew faster than world output, which is the indication that trade is the engine of growth. But since 2012 until the end of 2016, trade growth barely kept pace with world GDP growth at about 3 percent or less. This is highly unusual and tends not to happen except in war and deep recession. This is particularly worrisome for Asian nations, whom depend on exports. But still too early to tell if this is a new trend.

BWorld 137, ASEAN trade expansion and RCEP

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last June 09, 2017.



Despite various protectionist rhetoric by many world leaders against free trade, deep inside they know that there are “net gains” from trade and there are “net losses” under protectionism and restricted trade. Thus, while the multilateral trading agreement under the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not moving significantly, bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) are everywhere.

Trade within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is among the most dynamic in the world because of their consensus on faster unilateral trade liberalization policy and near zero tariff for all 10 member-countries since 2016. The region of some 630 million consumers would naturally attract the attention of its neighbors that want to source many of their needs and imports and want to export many of their products and services.

Thus, the ASEAN + 6 (Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand) evolved and later these 16 countries moved towards creating the world’s biggest FTA covering half of the planet’s total population + the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

Plenty of negotiations still ongoing but member-countries are hoping that RCEP will be formalized within the next two years. The main thorn in the agreement is not on tariffs but on non-tariff barriers (NTBs) or non-tariff measures (NTMs).

Last May 8, Stratbase-Albert del Rosario Institute (ADRi) organized a small group economists’ roundtable discussion on the “Global Geopolitical Situation: its Impact on Australian and Philippine Economies” at the Manila Peninsula Hotel. The main speaker was Mark Thirlwell, chief economist of Australia Trade and Investment Commission (Austrade).

It was a good forum with lots of useful data and insights. Among Mark’s points were the following: (a) Global tariffs are still low but have stopped falling, (b) Free Trade Agreement (FTA) coverage has grown but may have plateaued, (c) Non-tariff barriers are rising, including temporary barriers like anti-dumping, countervailing duties and safeguards, (d) trade liberalizing measures are surpassed or outnumbered by discriminatory/protectionist measures, and (e) ASEAN countries fit this global pattern as shown in these two very clear charts.





During the ASEAN Summit in Manila, Malaysian PM Najib Razak reemphasized the need to reduce the NTBs or non-tariff measures (NTMs) in the region, which have surged from 1,634 in 2000 to 5,975 in 2015.

Mark also said that e-commerce is also enabling trade citing the role of eBay, Amazon, and he asked if the world has already attained “peak trade” as global trade/GDP ratio has somehow plateaued at around 63% over the past few years. I argued during the open forum that like “peak food” (formulated by Thomas Malthus and later by Paul Ehrlich, others) and “peak oil” (formulated in the ’70s, reformulated in the ’90s), “peak trade” will not happen.

The average merchandise exports/GDP ratio from 2010-2015 of these Asian economies are as follows: Hong Kong 352.2%, Singapore 260.7%; Vietnam 152.7%; Malaysia 134.7%; Taiwan 114.6%; Thailand 113.6%. Yearly data I got from the ADB’s Key Indicators, November 2016 report. These are exports of goods alone. If exports of services are included, the ratio will grow much higher.


ASEAN countries should proceed with further trade liberalization and reduce the number of NTBs/NTMs at least among themselves. There is economic prosperity in trade expansion and misery in protectionism.
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See also: 
BWorld 134, PPP vs ODA, June 08, 2017 
BWorld 135, On reducing the distribution system loss, June 9, 2017 

BWorld 136, Income tax and the politics of envy, June 12, 2017

Saturday, May 27, 2017

BWorld 132, Global commodity prices, trade and growth

* This is my article in BusinessWorld yesterday.


One of the beauties of free trade and global economic integration is that countries can benefit from low commodity prices as improvement in technology and processes in other countries result in bigger output for the same land area and other inputs. The downside of course is that when commodity prices go up, economies that are more dependent on imported products would tend to wobble.

The period from 2008 to 2014 was characterized by generally high food and commodity prices.

For instance, price of corn was only $98/ton in 2005 but it shot up to $223 in 2008. I think it was the momentum of the biofuels law in the US in 2005, spurring huge demand in the US, Brazil, other countries. The price mellowed in 2009-2010 during the global financial turmoil that started in the US, but shot up again to nearly $300 in 2011-2012.

The global spike in rice prices (aka as “rice crisis of 2008”) from $288/MT in 2005 to $700 in 2008 was caused by several factors, among which are (a) price hikes in major energy sources oil, natural gas, and coal in 2008, and (b) rice export restrictions by India, Vietnam, Brazil, other countries.


Maize (corn) -- US No.2 Yellow, FOB Gulf of Mexico, US price
Rice -- 5% broken milled white rice, Thailand nominal price quote
Swine (pork) -- 51%-52% lean Hogs, US price
Poultry (chicken) -- Whole bird spot price, Georgia docks
Sugar -- Free Market, Coffee Sugar and Cocoa Exchange (CSCE) contract no. 11 nearest future position
Coffee -- Other Mild Arabicas, International Coffee Org. New York cash price, ex-dock New York

Crude Oil (petroleum) -- West Texas Intermediate 40 API, Midland Texas
Natural Gas -- Indonesian Liquefied Natural Gas in Japan, $/million metric British thermal units of liquid
Coal -- Australian thermal coal, 1200 btu/pound, less than 1% sulfur, 14% ash, FOB Newcastle/Port Kembla

Among the reasons why world oil prices rose to record levels in 2008 was the high energy demand in the two biggest countries in the world in population, China and India. Prior to 2008, from 2003-2007, China’s GDP growth was always double-digit, averaging 11.7% per year. India’s growth during that period was also high, averaging 8.8% per year.

Implications for the Philippines

Among the things that the Philippines should optimize given these price fluctuations in world commodity prices are the following:

1. Rice trade liberalization should have been started in 2010 when the Aquino administration took power. After short price spikes in 2011-2012, rice prices went downhill. The Duterte administration should proceed with full rice liberalization this year because of high medium term outlook for rice output and exports by our neighbors, Thailand and Vietnam especially.

2. Sugar liberalization should be pursued too as world sugar prices have declined from their peak prices in 2010-2012 average of around 22 US cents per pound.

3. Trade of corn and swine, even poultry should also be liberalized. Prices of rice, corn, swine, poultry and other food products are among the major contributors of the overall consumer price index (CPI) which are used to compute the inflation rate.

4. Energy-intensive industries like manufacturing, hotels, construction, and transportation (on air, land, water) can expand their production and fleet to take advantage of lower prices of oil, natural gas, and coal.

5. Two hindrances here: (a) the planned hike in excise tax for oil products by P6/liter across the board, and (b) continued onslaught by feed-in-tariff (FiT) and soon, renewable portfolio standards (RPS) that will result in expensive electricity. The purpose of trade and energy revolution is to make global energy prices become cheaper. The purpose of government in this case to make cheaper energy more expensive. These two measures should be abandoned and reversed someday.

6. Among the ASEAN-6 big economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and Philippines), the Philippines registered the highest average GDP growth per year from 2010-2015: Thailand 3.7%, Indonesia and Malaysia 5.7%, Singapore and Vietnam 6.0%, and Philippines 6.2%. There was something good that the previous Aquino administration was doing that the new Duterte administration should somehow continue.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal Government Thinkers and a Fellow of SEANET. Both institutes are members of Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia.
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See also: