BWorld 175, Trends in global and Philippine trade

* This is my column in BusinessWorld last December 27.

Global merchandise trade has slowed down recently despite low oil prices and less political and economic instability. After recovering from the 2009-2010 global financial turmoil, merchandise exports reached $18.3 trillion in 2011, $19 trillion in 2014, declined to $16.5 trillion in 2015, and fell further to $16 trillion in 2016.

The top 5 exporters in merchandise goods in 2015-2016 were China, USA, Germany, Japan, and Netherlands. Germany and Netherlands have the advantage of easier trade because they both are located in one continental land area and hence, can export by land, unlike China, US, and Japan which have to export largely by water.

Eleven (11) Asian economies, five of them from the ASEAN, belong to the top 30 biggest merchandise exporters in the world in 2015-2016. The Philippines remained in ranks 45th-46th.

In commercial services, global exports have slightly increased from $4.76 trillion in 2015 to $4.81 trillion in 2016. The top 5 exporters in were US, UK, Germany, France, and China. Such services include revenues from tourism and remittances of nationals working abroad.

Twelve (12) Asian economies, five of them including the Philippines from the ASEAN, belong to the top 40 biggest services exporters in the world in 2015-2016.

In particular, the Philippines’ merchandise exports have recovered with higher growth this year. Cumulative figures for January-October period are: $49.05 billion in 2015, $47.55 billion in 2016, and $53.11 billion in 2017, or 11.7% growth in 2017 over the previous year.

Top 5 merchandise export markets of the Philippines last year and this year are Japan, Hong Kong, US, China, and Singapore. The EU as a bloc though is the Philippines 2nd biggest market — it imported $5.86 trillion in 2016 and $7.83 trillion in 2017, January-October period.

Almost all export markets have increased their purchase from the Philippines in 2017 except Japan and Singapore, but the export levels to these two countries remain high.

Preliminary figures for 2017 point to a recovery and higher levels in 2017 compared to 2016, Philippine figures provide the clue. And not only in exports but also in imports.

The statement “If America (or Europe) turns protectionist, Asia loses” is wrong. Whoever starts serious protectionism is the loser. Free trade creates good will with other countries while expanding the choices and options for local consumers and manufacturers, which expand their productive capacity.

Asia will remain as a very important player in global trade of goods and services, also in investments, for two important reasons. One, growth momentum remains high, many economies growing 5% or more (GDP growth) a year. Two, huge and generally young population especially in India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam, comprising nearly 1.8 billion people with an average age of only 24-25 years old which is one-half of the average age of Japan and many developed countries in Europe.

Freer trade philosophy and policy will resurface in the coming years. Trade is the biggest instrument to prevent wars among countries. As the famous French economist and writer Frederic Bastiat once wrote, “If goods cannot cross borders, soldiers will.”

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See also:

BWorld 172, Mining and natural disasters, December 30, 2017 

BWorld 173, Energy favoritism under TRAIN, December 30, 2017 

BWorld 174, MMDA towed my car even with my kids inside, December 31, 2017

Liberty Notes from Larry Reed (2)

More notes on liberty, self reliance, personal responsibility, and a few funny quotes, from the facebook wall of Lawrence "Larry" W. Reed of the FEE, in 2011-2012.
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"It will take America fifteen years of steadily taking care of our own business and letting everybody else's alone, to get us back to where everybody speaks to us again" -- humorist Will Rogers, in a prophetic comment from seven or eight decades ago.

"The trade of governing has always been monopolized by the most ignorant and the most rascally individuals of mankind" -- Thomas Paine.

(With Larry and some batchmates during the Mackinac Leadership Conference, mid-April 2004, Michigan. Kendra Shrode, a Mackinac staff, 3rd from right))

"One of the qualities of liberty is that, as long as it is being striven after, it goes on expanding. Therefore, the man who stands in the midst of the struggle and says, 'I have it,' merely shows by doing so that he has just lost it" -- 19th Century playwright and poet Henrik Ibsen.

"Compared with the totality of knowledge which is continually utilized in the evolution of a dynamic civilization, the difference between the knowledge that the wisest and that which the most ignorant individual can deliberately employ is comparatively insignificant" -- F. A. Hayek, who also wrote that "...the case for individual freedom rests largely on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievements of our ends and welfare depend."

"A society that puts equality ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality nor freedom" -- Milton Friedman.

Liberty Notes from Larry Reed (1)

Updating the "Liberty Notes from Larry Reed", taken from Lawrence/Larry's facebook wall statu in 2012.

Larry is the President of the Foundation for Economic Education (www.fee.org), a big free market think in the US. He used to be the President of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy (www.mackinac.org), also a free market think tank based in Midlands, Michigan. He moved to FEE to do a bigger job in promoting liberty across America and the rest of the world as Mackinac is concerned more with policy issues in Michigan.

I first met him in Michigan when I attended the Mackinac Leadership Conference in mid-April 2004, when I was given an international fellows scholarship by the Atlas Economic Research Foundation (www.atlasnetwork.org) in the US. It was a one month training, exposure and meetings with many free market leaders in the US and other parts of the world. It was also my first trip to the US :-)

With Larry and some batchmates during the Mackinac Leadership Conference.

Below are quotes from various thinkers that Larry posted in his fb wall in January 2012. I did not include wall posts with links.

I will post more liberty notes and quotes from him in this blog in the coming days and weeks. Meanwhile, enjoy these erudite ideas (and some funny quotes) from him and from various thinkers in the past.
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"Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?" -- Robert Orben.

"When I was a boy I was told that anybody could become President; now I'm beginning to believe it" -- Clarence Darrow.

"We must pity the poor wretched, timid soul who is too faint-hearted to resist his oppressors. He sings the song of the dammed: 'I can’t fight back; I have too much to lose; I own too much property; I have worked too hard to get what I have; They will put me out of business if I resist; I might go to jail; I have my family to think about.' Such poor miserable creatures have misplaced values and are hiding their cowardice behind pretended family responsibility--blindly refusing to see that the most glorious legacy that one can bequeath to posterity is liberty; and that the only true security is liberty" -- Marvin Cooley.

"Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage" -- H. L. Mencken.

"It takes less time to do a thing right than it does to explain why you did it wrong" -- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.

"Socialism, like the ancient ideas from which it springs, confuses the distinction between government and society. As a result of this, every time we object to a thing being done by government, the socialists conclude that we object to its being done at all" -- Frederic Bastiat, author of "The Law."